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The national numerical weather prediction system of Vietnam is presented and evaluated. The system is based on three main models, namely, the Japanese Global Spectral Model, the US Global Forecast System, and the US Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The global forecast products have been received at 0.25- and 0.5-degree horizontal resolution, respectively, and the WRF model has been run locally with 16 km horizontal resolution at the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting using lateral conditions from GSM and GFS. The model performance is evaluated by comparing model output against observations of precipitation, wind speed, and temperature at 168 weather stations, with daily data from 2010 to 2014. In general, the global models provide more accurate forecasts than the regional models, probably due to the low horizontal resolution in the regional model. Also, the model performance is poorer for stations with altitudes greater than 500 meters above sea level (masl). For tropical cyclone performance validations, the maximum wind surface forecast from global and regional models is also verified against the best track of Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Finally, the model forecast skill during a recent extreme rain event in northeast Vietnam is evaluated.

In this study, monsoon-induced surge during high tides at the Southeast coast of Vietnam was analyzed based on the observed tide data at the Vung Tau station in the period between 1997—2016. Specifically, the surge was determined by removing the astronomical tide from the observed total water level. The two-dimensional Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS 2D) was applied to simulate the surge induced by monsoons during spring tide. The surge observations showed that the change of peak surge did not follow a clear trend, of either an increase or decrease, over time. A peak surge of over 40 cm appeared mainly in October and November, although the peak of the astronomical tide was higher in December. ROMS 2D was validated with the observational data, and the model could sufficiently reproduce the wind-induced surge during high tides. This study therefor ere commends for ROMS 2D to be used in operational forecasts in this area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]