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The importance of early interventions in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) emphasizes the need to accurately and efficiently identify at-risk individuals. Although many dementia prediction models have been developed, there are fewer studies focusing on detection of brain pathology. We developed a model for identification of amyloid-PET positivity using data on demographics, vascular factors, cognition, APOE genotype, and structural MRI, including regional brain volumes, cortical thickness and a visual medial temporal lobe atrophy (MTA) rating. We also analyzed the relative importance of different factors when added to the overall model. The model used baseline data from the Finnish Geriatric Intervention Study to Prevent Cognitive Impairment and Disability (FINGER) exploratory PET sub-study. Participants were at risk for dementia, but without dementia or cognitive impairment. Their mean age was 71 years. Participants underwent a brain 3T MRI and PiB-PET imaging. PiB images were visually determined as positive or negative. Cognition was measured using a modified version of the Neuropsychological Test Battery. Body mass index (BMI) and hypertension were used as cardiovascular risk factors in the model. Demographic factors included age, gender and years of education. The model was built using the Disease State Index (DSI) machine learning algorithm. Of the 48 participants, 20 (42%) were rated as Aβ positive. Compared with the Aβ negative group, the Aβ positive group had a higher proportion of APOE ε4 carriers (53 vs. 14%), lower executive functioning, lower brain volumes, and higher visual MTA rating. AUC [95% CI] for the complete model was 0.78 [0.65–0.91]. MRI was the most effective factor, especially brain volumes and visual MTA rating but not cortical thickness. APOE was nearly as effective as MRI in improving detection of amyloid positivity. The model with the best performance (AUC 0.82 [0.71–0.93]) was achieved by combining APOE and MRI. Our findings suggest that combining demographic data, vascular risk factors, cognitive performance, APOE genotype, and brain MRI measures can help identify Aβ positivity. Detecting amyloid positivity could reduce invasive and costly assessments during the screening process in clinical trials.

Abstract Background We developed multifactorial models for predicting incident dementia and brain pathology in the oldest old using the Vantaa 85+ cohort. Methods We included participants without dementia at baseline and at least 2 years of follow-up (N = 245) for dementia prediction or with autopsy data (N = 163) for pathology. A supervised machine learning method was used for model development, considering sociodemographic, cognitive, clinical, vascular, and lifestyle factors, as well as APOE genotype. Neuropathological assessments included β-amyloid, neurofibrillary tangles and neuritic plaques, cerebral amyloid angiopathy (CAA), macro- and microscopic infarcts, α-synuclein pathology, hippocampal sclerosis, and TDP-43. Results Prediction model performance was evaluated using AUC for 10 × 10-fold cross-validation. Overall AUCs were 0.73 for dementia, 0.64–0.68 for Alzheimer’s disease (AD)- or amyloid-related pathologies, 0.72 for macroinfarcts, and 0.61 for microinfarcts. Predictors for dementia were different from those in previous reports of younger populations; for example, age, sex, and vascular and lifestyle factors were not predictive. Predictors for dementia versus pathology were also different, because cognition and education predicted dementia but not AD- or amyloid-related pathologies. APOE genotype was most consistently present across all models. APOE alleles had a different impact: ε4 did not predict dementia, but it did predict all AD- or amyloid-related pathologies; ε2 predicted dementia, but it was protective against amyloid and neuropathological AD; and ε3ε3 was protective against dementia, neurofibrillary tangles, and CAA. Very few other factors were predictive of pathology. Conclusions Differences between predictors for dementia in younger old versus oldest old populations, as well as for dementia versus pathology, should be considered more carefully in future studies.