145 results on '"Tindall, Julia C."'
Search Results
2. 20,000 years of societal vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in southwest Asia
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Jones, Matthew D, Abu‐Jaber, Nizar, AlShdaifat, Ahmad, Baird, Douglas, Cook, Benjamin I, Cuthbert, Mark O, Dean, Jonathan R, Djamali, Morteza, Eastwood, Warren, Fleitmann, Dominik, Haywood, Alan, Kwiecien, Ola, Larsen, Joshua, Maher, Lisa A, Metcalfe, Sarah E, Parker, Adrian, Petrie, Cameron A, Primmer, Nick, Richter, Tobias, Roberts, Neil, Roe, Joe, Tindall, Julia C, Ünal‐İmer, Ezgi, and Weeks, Lloyd
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Earth Sciences ,Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation ,Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience ,Environmental Sciences ,Climate Action ,archaeology ,Holocene ,hydrology ,Iran ,Levant ,palaeoclimate ,Turkey - Abstract
The Fertile Crescent, its hilly flanks and surrounding drylands has been a critical region for studying how climate has influenced societal change, and this review focuses on the region over the last 20,000 years. The complex social, economic, and environmental landscapes in the region today are not new phenomena and understanding their interactions requires a nuanced, multidisciplinary understanding of the past. This review builds on a history of collaboration between the social and natural palaeoscience disciplines. We provide a multidisciplinary, multiscalar perspective on the relevance of past climate, environmental, and archaeological research in assessing present day vulnerabilities and risks for the populations of southwest Asia. We discuss the complexity of palaeoclimatic data interpretation, particularly in relation to hydrology, and provide an overview of key time periods of palaeoclimatic interest. We discuss the critical role that vegetation plays in the human-climate-environment nexus and discuss the implications of the available palaeoclimate and archaeological data, and their interpretation, for palaeonarratives of the region, both climatically and socially. We also provide an overview of how modelling can improve our understanding of past climate impacts and associated change in risk to societies. We conclude by looking to future work, and identify themes of "scale" and "seasonality" as still requiring further focus. We suggest that by appreciating a given locale's place in the regional hydroscape, be it an archaeological site or palaeoenvironmental archive, more robust links to climate can be made where appropriate and interpretations drawn will demand the resolution of factors acting across multiple scales. This article is categorized under:Human Water > Water as Imagined and RepresentedScience of Water > Water and Environmental ChangeWater and Life > Nature of Freshwater Ecosystems.
- Published
- 2019
3. Past terrestrial hydroclimate sensitivity controlled by Earth system feedbacks
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Feng, Ran, Bhattacharya, Tripti, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L., Brady, Esther C., Haywood, Alan M., Tindall, Julia C., Hunter, Stephen J., Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Chan, Wing-Le, Kageyama, Masa, Contoux, Camille, Guo, Chuncheng, Li, Xiangyu, Lohmann, Gerrit, Stepanek, Christian, Tan, Ning, Zhang, Qiong, Zhang, Zhongshi, Han, Zixuan, Williams, Charles J. R., Lunt, Daniel J., Dowsett, Harry J., Chandan, Deepak, and Peltier, W. Richard
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- 2022
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4. The role of atmospheric CO2 in controlling sea surface temperature change during the Pliocene.
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Burton, Lauren E., Haywood, Alan M., Tindall, Julia C., Dolan, Aisling M., Hill, Daniel J., McClymont, Erin L., Ho, Sze Ling, and Ford, Heather L.
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ATMOSPHERIC carbon dioxide ,CLIMATE sensitivity ,ICE sheets ,CARBON dioxide - Abstract
We present the role of CO 2 forcing in controlling Late Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) change using six models from Phase 2 of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2) and palaeoclimate proxy data from the PlioVAR working group. At a global scale, SST change in the Late Pliocene relative to the pre-industrial is predominantly driven by CO 2 forcing in the low and mid-latitudes and non-CO 2 forcing in the high latitudes. We find that CO 2 is the dominant driver of SST change at the vast majority of proxy data sites assessed (17 out of 19), but the relative dominance of this forcing varies between all proxy sites, with CO 2 forcing accounting for between 27 % and 82 % of the total change seen. The dearth of proxy data sites in the high latitudes means that only two sites assessed here are predominantly forced by non-CO 2 forcing (such as changes to ice sheets and orography), both of which are in the North Atlantic Ocean. We extend the analysis to show the seasonal patterns of SST change and its drivers at a global scale and at a site-specific level for three chosen proxy data sites. We also present a new estimate of Late Pliocene climate sensitivity using site-specific proxy data values. This is the first assessment of site-specific drivers of SST change in the Late Pliocene and highlights the strengths of using palaeoclimate proxy data alongside model outputs to further develop our understanding of the Late Pliocene. We use the best available proxy and model data, but the sample sizes remain limited, and the confidence in our results would be improved with greater data availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
5. Highly stratified mid-Pliocene Southern Ocean in PlioMIP2.
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Weiffenbach, Julia E., Dijkstra, Henk A., von der Heydt, Anna S., Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Chan, Wing-Le, Chandan, Deepak, Feng, Ran, Haywood, Alan M., Hunter, Stephen J., Li, Xiangyu, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L., Peltier, W. Richard, Stepanek, Christian, Tan, Ning, Tindall, Julia C., and Zhang, Zhongshi
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ATMOSPHERIC carbon dioxide ,OCEAN temperature ,ANTARCTIC ice ,OCEAN ,ICE sheets ,SUBGLACIAL lakes ,SEA ice - Abstract
During the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; 3.264–3.025 Ma), atmospheric CO 2 concentrations were approximately 400 ppm, and the Antarctic Ice Sheet was substantially reduced compared to today. Antarctica is surrounded by the Southern Ocean, which plays a crucial role in the global oceanic circulation and climate regulation. Using results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2), we investigate Southern Ocean conditions during the mPWP with respect to the pre-industrial period. We find that the mean sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the Southern Ocean is 2.8 °C, while global mean SST warming is 2.4 °C. The enhanced warming is strongly tied to a dramatic decrease in sea ice cover over the mPWP Southern Ocean. We also see a freshening of the ocean (sub)surface, driven by an increase in precipitation over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica. The warmer and fresher surface leads to a highly stratified Southern Ocean that can be related to weakening of the deep abyssal overturning circulation. Sensitivity simulations show that the decrease in sea ice cover and enhanced warming is largely a consequence of the reduction in the Antarctic Ice Sheet. In addition, the mPWP geographic boundary conditions are responsible for approximately half of the increase in mPWP SST warming, sea ice loss, precipitation, and stratification increase over the Southern Ocean. From these results, we conclude that a strongly reduced Antarctic Ice Sheet during the mPWP has a substantial influence on the state of the Southern Ocean and exacerbates the changes that are induced by a higher CO 2 concentration alone. This is relevant for the long-term future of the Southern Ocean, as we expect melting of the western Antarctic Ice Sheet in the future, an effect that is not currently taken into account in future projections by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) ensembles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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6. Modelling the mid-Pliocene warm period using HadGEM2
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Tindall, Julia C. and Haywood, Alan M.
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- 2020
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7. Supplementary material to "Highly stratified mid-Pliocene Southern Ocean in PlioMIP2"
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Weiffenbach, Julia E., primary, Dijkstra, Henk A., additional, von der Heydt, Anna S., additional, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Chan, Wing-Le, additional, Chandan, Deepak, additional, Feng, Ran, additional, Haywood, Alan M., additional, Hunter, Stephen J., additional, Li, Xiangyu, additional, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L., additional, Peltier, W. Richard, additional, Stepanek, Christian, additional, Tan, Ning, additional, Tindall, Julia C., additional, and Zhang, Zhongshi, additional
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- 2023
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8. Highly stratified mid-Pliocene Southern Ocean in PlioMIP2
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Weiffenbach, Julia E., primary, Dijkstra, Henk A., additional, von der Heydt, Anna S., additional, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Chan, Wing-Le, additional, Chandan, Deepak, additional, Feng, Ran, additional, Haywood, Alan M., additional, Hunter, Stephen J., additional, Li, Xiangyu, additional, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L., additional, Peltier, W. Richard, additional, Stepanek, Christian, additional, Tan, Ning, additional, Tindall, Julia C., additional, and Zhang, Zhongshi, additional
- Published
- 2023
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9. The hydrological cycle and ocean circulation of the Maritime Continent in the Pliocene: results from PlioMIP2
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Ren, Xin, primary, Lunt, Daniel J., additional, Hendy, Erica, additional, von der Heydt, Anna, additional, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Otto-Bliesner, Bette, additional, Williams, Charles J. R., additional, Stepanek, Christian, additional, Guo, Chuncheng, additional, Chandan, Deepak, additional, Lohmann, Gerrit, additional, Tindall, Julia C., additional, Sohl, Linda E., additional, Chandler, Mark A., additional, Kageyama, Masa, additional, Baatsen, Michiel L. J., additional, Tan, Ning, additional, Zhang, Qiong, additional, Feng, Ran, additional, Hunter, Stephen, additional, Chan, Wing-Le, additional, Peltier, W. Richard, additional, Li, Xiangyu, additional, Kamae, Youichi, additional, Zhang, Zhongshi, additional, and Haywood, Alan M., additional
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- 2023
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10. Ocean circulation drifts in multi-millennial climate simulations: the role of salinity corrections and climate feedbacks
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Dentith, Jennifer E., Ivanovic, Ruza F., Gregoire, Lauren J., Tindall, Julia C., and Smith, Robin S.
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- 2019
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11. The role of atmospheric CO2 in controlling patterns of sea surface temperature change during the Pliocene.
- Author
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Burton, Lauren E., Haywood, Alan M., Tindall, Julia C., Dolan, Aisling M., Hill, Daniel J., McClymont, Erin L., Sze Ling Ho, and Ford, Heather L.
- Abstract
We present the role of CO
2 forcing in controlling patterns of Late Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) using seven models from Phase 2 of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2) and palaeoclimate proxy data from the PlioVAR working group. At a global scale, SST change in the Late Pliocene relative to the pre-industrial is predominantly driven by CO2 forcing in the low and mid-latitudes and non-CO2 forcing in the high latitudes. We find that CO2 is the dominant driver of SST change at the vast majority of proxy data sites assessed (17 out of 19), but the relative dominance of this forcing varies between all proxy sites, with CO2 forcing accounting for between 27 % and 82 % of the total change seen. The dearth of proxy data sites in the high latitudes means that only two sites assessed here are predominantly forced by non-CO2 forcing (such as changes to ice sheets and orography), both of which are in the North Atlantic Ocean. We extend the analysis to show the seasonal patterns of SST change and its drivers at a global scale and at a site-specific level for three chosen proxy data sites. We also present a new estimate of Late Pliocene climate sensitivity using site-specific proxy data values. This is the first assessment of site-specific drivers of SST change in the Late Pliocene and highlights the strengths of using palaeoclimate proxy data alongside model outputs to further develop our understanding of the Late Pliocene. We use the best-available proxy and model data, but the sample sizes remain limited and the confidence in our results would be improved with greater data availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
12. Highly stratified mid-Pliocene Southern Ocean in PlioMIP2.
- Author
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Weiffenbach, Julia E., Dijkstra, Henk A., von der Heydt, Anna S., Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Chandan, Deepak, Ran Feng, Haywood, Alan M., Hunter, Stephen J., Xiangyu Li, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L., Peltier, W. Richard, Stepanek, Christian, Ning Tan, Tindall, Julia C., and Zhongshi Zhang
- Abstract
During the mid-Pliocene (3.264-3.025 Ma), atmospheric CO
2 concentrations were approximately 400 ppm and the Antarctic ice sheet was substantially reduced compared to today. Antarctica is surrounded by the Southern Ocean, which plays a crucial role in the global oceanic circulation and climate regulation. Using results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2), we investigate Southern Ocean conditions during the mid-Pliocene with respect to the pre-industrial period. We find that the mean sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the Southern Ocean is 2.8°C, while global mean SST warming is 2.4°C. The enhanced warming is strongly tied to a dramatic decrease in sea-ice cover over the mid-Pliocene Southern Ocean. We also see a freshening of the ocean (sub)surface, driven by an increase in precipitation over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica. The warmer and fresher surface leads to a highly stratified Southern Ocean, that can be related to weakening of the deep abyssal overturning circulation. Sensitivity simulations show that the decrease in sea-ice cover and enhanced warming is largely a consequence of the reduction of the Antarctic ice sheet. In addition, the mid-Pliocene geographic boundary conditions are responsible for approximately half of the increase in mid-Pliocene SST warming, sea ice loss, precipitation and stratification increase over the Southern Ocean. From these results, we conclude that a strongly reduced Antarctic Ice Sheet during the mid- Pliocene has a substantial influence on the state of the mid-Pliocene Southern Ocean and exacerbates the changes that are induced by a higher CO2 concentration alone. This is relevant for the long-term future of the Southern Ocean, as we expect melting of the western Antarctic ice sheet in the future, an effect that is not currently taken into account in future projections by CMIP ensembles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
13. On the climatic influence of CO2 forcing in the Pliocene
- Author
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Burton, Lauren E., primary, Haywood, Alan M., additional, Tindall, Julia C., additional, Dolan, Aisling M., additional, Hill, Daniel J., additional, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Chan, Wing-Le, additional, Chandan, Deepak, additional, Feng, Ran, additional, Hunter, Stephen J., additional, Li, Xiangyu, additional, Peltier, W. Richard, additional, Tan, Ning, additional, Stepanek, Christian, additional, and Zhang, Zhongshi, additional
- Published
- 2023
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14. Unraveling the mechanisms and implications of a stronger mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in PlioMIP2
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Weiffenbach, Julia E., primary, Baatsen, Michiel L. J., additional, Dijkstra, Henk A., additional, von der Heydt, Anna S., additional, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Brady, Esther C., additional, Chan, Wing-Le, additional, Chandan, Deepak, additional, Chandler, Mark A., additional, Contoux, Camille, additional, Feng, Ran, additional, Guo, Chuncheng, additional, Han, Zixuan, additional, Haywood, Alan M., additional, Li, Qiang, additional, Li, Xiangyu, additional, Lohmann, Gerrit, additional, Lunt, Daniel J., additional, Nisancioglu, Kerim H., additional, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L., additional, Peltier, W. Richard, additional, Ramstein, Gilles, additional, Sohl, Linda E., additional, Stepanek, Christian, additional, Tan, Ning, additional, Tindall, Julia C., additional, Williams, Charles J. R., additional, Zhang, Qiong, additional, and Zhang, Zhongshi, additional
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- 2023
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15. Reconstructing paleosalinity from δ18O: Coupled model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum, Last Interglacial and Late Holocene
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Holloway, Max D., Sime, Louise C., Singarayer, Joy S., Tindall, Julia C., and Valdes, Paul J.
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- 2016
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16. Early Pliocene (Zanclean) stratigraphic framework for PRISM5/PlioMIP3 time slices.
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Dowsett, Harry J., Robinson, Marci M., Foley, Kevin M., Hunter, Stephen J., Dolan, Aisling M., and Tindall, Julia C.
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GEOLOGICAL time scales ,PLIOCENE Epoch ,GEOLOGICAL surveys ,OXYGEN isotopes ,ATMOSPHERIC temperature ,HIGH temperatures ,ATMOSPHERIC carbon dioxide ,CALCAREOUS soils - Abstract
Global reconstructions of Pliocene climate provide important insights into how the climate system operates under elevated temperatures and atmospheric CO2 levels. These reconstructions have been used extensively in paleoclimate modeling experiments for comparison to simulated conditions, and as boundary conditions. Most previous work focused on the Late Pliocene interval known as the mid PiacenzianWarm Period (mPWP), the interval originally identified by the U.S. Geological Survey Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping Project (PRISM) as the PRISM interval or Mid Pliocene Warm Period. The term Mid Pliocene Warm Period is a misnomer due to changes to the geological time scale, and its use should be discontinued. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), now in its third phase, is expanding to include a focus on the Early Pliocene (Zanclean). PlioMIP3 experimentswill allow comparison of environmental and climatic conditions before and after closure of the Central American Seaway (CAS). PlioMIP3 used the annual insolation pattern at the top of the atmosphere to determine time slices in the Zanclean that have orbital configurations that are most similar to modern. Two have been selected by PlioMIP and adopted by PRISM for inclusion in future studies: PRISM5.1 (4.474 Ma) and PRISM5.2 (4.870 Ma). Here we establish the stratigraphic framework for these Early Pliocene time slices and furnish information to help locate these intervals in proxy records of paleoenvironmental data using oxygen isotope stratigraphy, paleomagnetic stratigraphy, biostratigraphy, and biochronology (calibrated planktic foraminifer and calcareous nannofossil events). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
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17. Modelling the enigmatic Late Pliocene Glacial Event — Marine Isotope Stage M2
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Dolan, Aisling M., Haywood, Alan M., Hunter, Stephen J., Tindall, Julia C., Dowsett, Harry J., Hill, Daniel J., and Pickering, Steven J.
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- 2015
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18. Supplementary material to "The hydrological cycle and ocean circulation of the Maritime Continent in the mid-Pliocene: results from PlioMIP2"
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Ren, Xin, primary, Lunt, Daniel J., additional, Hendy, Erica, additional, von der Heydt, Anna, additional, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L., additional, Williams, Charles J. R., additional, Stepanek, Christian, additional, Guo, Chuncheng, additional, Chandan, Deepak, additional, Lohmann, Gerrit, additional, Tindall, Julia C., additional, Sohl, Linda E., additional, Chandler, Mark A., additional, Kageyama, Masa, additional, Baatsen, Michiel L. J., additional, Tan, Ning, additional, Zhang, Qiong, additional, Feng, Ran, additional, Chan, Wing-Le, additional, Peltier, W. Richard, additional, Li, Xiangyu, additional, Kamae, Youichi, additional, Zhang, Zhongshi, additional, and Haywood, Alan M., additional
- Published
- 2022
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19. The hydrological cycle and ocean circulation of the Maritime Continent in the mid-Pliocene: results from PlioMIP2
- Author
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Ren, Xin, primary, Lunt, Daniel J., additional, Hendy, Erica, additional, von der Heydt, Anna, additional, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L., additional, Williams, Charles J. R., additional, Stepanek, Christian, additional, Guo, Chuncheng, additional, Chandan, Deepak, additional, Lohmann, Gerrit, additional, Tindall, Julia C., additional, Sohl, Linda E., additional, Chandler, Mark A., additional, Kageyama, Masa, additional, Baatsen, Michiel L. J., additional, Tan, Ning, additional, Zhang, Qiong, additional, Feng, Ran, additional, Chan, Wing-Le, additional, Peltier, W. Richard, additional, Li, Xiangyu, additional, Kamae, Youichi, additional, Zhang, Zhongshi, additional, and Haywood, Alan M., additional
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
20. Supplementary material to "On the climatic influence of CO2 forcing in the Pliocene"
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Burton, Lauren E., primary, Haywood, Alan M., additional, Tindall, Julia C., additional, Dolan, Aisling M., additional, Hill, Daniel J., additional, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Chan, Wing-Le, additional, Chandan, Deepak, additional, Feng, Ran, additional, Hunter, Stephen J., additional, Li, Xiangyu, additional, Peltier, W. Richard, additional, Tan, Ning, additional, Stepanek, Christian, additional, and Zhang, Zhongshi, additional
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
21. On the climatic influence of CO2 forcing in the Pliocene
- Author
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Burton, Lauren E., primary, Haywood, Alan M., additional, Tindall, Julia C., additional, Dolan, Aisling M., additional, Hill, Daniel J., additional, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Chan, Wing-Le, additional, Chandan, Deepak, additional, Feng, Ran, additional, Hunter, Stephen J., additional, Li, Xiangyu, additional, Peltier, W. Richard, additional, Tan, Ning, additional, Stepanek, Christian, additional, and Zhang, Zhongshi, additional
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
22. The warm winter paradox in the Pliocene northern high latitudes
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Tindall, Julia C., primary, Haywood, Alan M., additional, Salzmann, Ulrich, additional, Dolan, Aisling M., additional, and Fletcher, Tamara, additional
- Published
- 2022
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- View/download PDF
23. Supplementary material to "Unraveling the mechanisms and implications of a stronger mid-Pliocene AMOC in PlioMIP2"
- Author
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Weiffenbach, Julia E., primary, Baatsen, Michiel L. J., additional, Dijkstra, Henk A., additional, von der Heydt, Anna S., additional, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Brady, Esther C., additional, Chan, Wing-Le, additional, Chandan, Deepak, additional, Chandler, Mark A., additional, Contoux, Camille, additional, Feng, Ran, additional, Guo, Chuncheng, additional, Han, Zixuan, additional, Haywood, Alan M., additional, Li, Qiang, additional, Li, Xiangyu, additional, Lohmann, Gerrit, additional, Lunt, Daniel J., additional, Nisancioglu, Kerim H., additional, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L., additional, Peltier, W. Richard, additional, Ramstein, Gilles, additional, Sohl, Linda E., additional, Stepanek, Christian, additional, Tan, Ning, additional, Tindall, Julia C., additional, Williams, Charles J. R., additional, Zhang, Qiong, additional, and Zhang, Zhongshi, additional
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
24. Unraveling the mechanisms and implications of a stronger mid-Pliocene AMOC in PlioMIP2
- Author
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Weiffenbach, Julia E., primary, Baatsen, Michiel L. J., additional, Dijkstra, Henk A., additional, von der Heydt, Anna S., additional, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Brady, Esther C., additional, Chan, Wing-Le, additional, Chandan, Deepak, additional, Chandler, Mark A., additional, Contoux, Camille, additional, Feng, Ran, additional, Guo, Chuncheng, additional, Han, Zixuan, additional, Haywood, Alan M., additional, Li, Qiang, additional, Li, Xiangyu, additional, Lohmann, Gerrit, additional, Lunt, Daniel J., additional, Nisancioglu, Kerim H., additional, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L., additional, Peltier, W. Richard, additional, Ramstein, Gilles, additional, Sohl, Linda E., additional, Stepanek, Christian, additional, Tan, Ning, additional, Tindall, Julia C., additional, Williams, Charles J. R., additional, Zhang, Qiong, additional, and Zhang, Zhongshi, additional
- Published
- 2022
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- View/download PDF
25. Warm climate isotopic simulations: what do we learn about interglacial signals in Greenland ice cores?
- Author
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Sime, Louise C., Risi, Camille, Tindall, Julia C., Sjolte, Jesper, Wolff, Eric W., Masson-Delmotte, Valérie, and Capron, Emilie
- Published
- 2013
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26. Supplementary material to "The Warm Winter Paradox in the Pliocene High Latitudes"
- Author
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Tindall, Julia C., primary, Haywood, Alan M., additional, Salzmann, Ulrich, additional, Dolan, Aisling M., additional, and Fletcher, Tamara, additional
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
27. The Warm Winter Paradox in the Pliocene High Latitudes
- Author
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Tindall, Julia C., primary, Haywood, Alan M., additional, Salzmann, Ulrich, additional, Dolan, Aisling M., additional, and Fletcher, Tamara, additional
- Published
- 2022
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- View/download PDF
28. The 8200 yr BP cold event in stable isotope records from the North Atlantic region
- Author
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Daley, Timothy J., Thomas, Elizabeth R., Holmes, Jonathan A., Street-Perrott, F. Alayne, Chapman, Mark R., Tindall, Julia C., Valdes, Paul J., Loader, Neil J., Marshall, James D., Wolff, Eric W., Hopley, Philip J., Atkinson, Tim, Barber, Keith E., Fisher, Elizabeth H., Robertson, Iain, Hughes, Paul D.M., and Roberts, C. Neil
- Published
- 2011
- Full Text
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29. Modeling the 8.2 ka event using a coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM
- Author
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Tindall, Julia C. and Valdes, Paul J.
- Published
- 2011
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30. Evaluating the large-scale hydrological cycle response within the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) ensemble
- Author
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Han, Zixuan, primary, Zhang, Qiong, additional, Li, Qiang, additional, Feng, Ran, additional, Haywood, Alan M., additional, Tindall, Julia C., additional, Hunter, Stephen J., additional, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L., additional, Brady, Esther C., additional, Rosenbloom, Nan, additional, Zhang, Zhongshi, additional, Li, Xiangyu, additional, Guo, Chuncheng, additional, Nisancioglu, Kerim H., additional, Stepanek, Christian, additional, Lohmann, Gerrit, additional, Sohl, Linda E., additional, Chandler, Mark A., additional, Tan, Ning, additional, Ramstein, Gilles, additional, Baatsen, Michiel L. J., additional, von der Heydt, Anna S., additional, Chandan, Deepak, additional, Peltier, W. Richard, additional, Williams, Charles J. R., additional, Lunt, Daniel J., additional, Cheng, Jianbo, additional, Wen, Qin, additional, and Burls, Natalie J., additional
- Published
- 2021
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31. Reduced El Niño variability in the mid-Pliocene according to the PlioMIP2 ensemble
- Author
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Oldeman, Arthur M., primary, Baatsen, Michiel L. J., additional, von der Heydt, Anna S., additional, Dijkstra, Henk A., additional, Tindall, Julia C., additional, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Booth, Alice R., additional, Brady, Esther C., additional, Chan, Wing-Le, additional, Chandan, Deepak, additional, Chandler, Mark A., additional, Contoux, Camille, additional, Feng, Ran, additional, Guo, Chuncheng, additional, Haywood, Alan M., additional, Hunter, Stephen J., additional, Kamae, Youichi, additional, Li, Qiang, additional, Li, Xiangyu, additional, Lohmann, Gerrit, additional, Lunt, Daniel J., additional, Nisancioglu, Kerim H., additional, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L., additional, Peltier, W. Richard, additional, Pontes, Gabriel M., additional, Ramstein, Gilles, additional, Sohl, Linda E., additional, Stepanek, Christian, additional, Tan, Ning, additional, Zhang, Qiong, additional, Zhang, Zhongshi, additional, Wainer, Ilana, additional, and Williams, Charles J. R., additional
- Published
- 2021
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32. Simulation of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period using HadGEM3: experimental design and results from model–model and model–data comparison
- Author
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Williams, Charles J. R., primary, Sellar, Alistair A., additional, Ren, Xin, additional, Haywood, Alan M., additional, Hopcroft, Peter, additional, Hunter, Stephen J., additional, Roberts, William H. G., additional, Smith, Robin S., additional, Stone, Emma J., additional, Tindall, Julia C., additional, and Lunt, Daniel J., additional
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
33. Mid-Pliocene West African Monsoon rainfall as simulated in the PlioMIP2 ensemble
- Author
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Berntell, Ellen, Zhang, Qiong, Li, Qiang, Haywood, Alan M., Tindall, Julia C., Hunter, Stephen J., Zhang, Zhongshi, Li, Xiangyu, Guo, Chuncheng, Nisancioglu, Kerim H., Stepanek, Christian, Lohmann, Gerrit, Sohl, Linda E., Chandler, Mark A., Tan, Ning, Contoux, Camille, Ramstein, Gilles, Baatsen, Michiel L.J., Von Der Heydt, Anna S., Chandan, Deepak, Peltier, William Richard, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Chan, Wing Le, Kamae, Youichi, Williams, Charles J.R., Lunt, Daniel J., Feng, Ran, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L., Brady, Esther C., Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Sub Physical Oceanography, and Marine and Atmospheric Research
- Subjects
Global and Planetary Change ,Stratigraphy ,Palaeontology - Abstract
The mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; g1/43.2 million years ago) is seen as the most recent time period characterized by a warm climate state, with similar to modern geography and g1/4400g€¯ppmv atmospheric CO2 concentration, and is therefore often considered an interesting analogue for near-future climate projections. Paleoenvironmental reconstructions indicate higher surface temperatures, decreasing tropical deserts, and a more humid climate in West Africa characterized by a strengthened West African Monsoon (WAM). Using model results from the second phase of the Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2) ensemble, we analyse changes of the WAM rainfall during the mPWP by comparing them with the control simulations for the pre-industrial period. The ensemble shows a robust increase in the summer rainfall over West Africa and the Sahara region, with an average increase of 2.5g€¯mm/d, contrasted by a rainfall decrease over the equatorial Atlantic. An anomalous warming of the Sahara and deepening of the Saharan Heat Low, seen in >90g€¯% of the models, leads to a strengthening of the WAM and an increased monsoonal flow into the continent. A similar warming of the Sahara is seen in future projections using both phase 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). Though previous studies of future projections indicate a west-east drying-wetting contrast over the Sahel, PlioMIP2 simulations indicate a uniform rainfall increase in that region in warm climates characterized by increasing greenhouse gas forcing. We note that this effect will further depend on the long-term response of the vegetation to the CO2 forcing.
- Published
- 2021
34. The hydrological cycle and ocean circulation of the Maritime Continent in the mid-Pliocene: results from PlioMIP2.
- Author
-
Xin Ren, Lunt, Daniel J., Hendy, Erica, von der Heydt, Anna, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Otto-Bliesner, Bette, Williams, Charles J. R., Stepanek, Christian, Chuncheng Guo, Chandan, Deepak, Lohmann, Gerrit, Tindall, Julia C., Sohl, Linda E., Chandler, Mark A., Kageyama, Masa, Baatsen, Michiel L. J., Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Ran Feng, and Wing-Le Chan
- Abstract
The Maritime Continent (MC) forms the western boundary of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and relatively small changes in this region can impact the climate locally and remotely. In the mid-Pliocene (from 3.264 to 3.025 million years before present), atmospheric CO
2 concentrations were ~ 400 ppm, and the subaerial Sunda and Sahul shelves made the land-sea distribution of the MC different to today. Topographic changes and elevated levels of CO2 , combined with other forcings, are therefore expected to have driven a substantial climate signal in the MC region at this time. By using the results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PlioMIP2) we study the mean climatic features of the MC in the mid-Pliocene and changes in Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) with respect to preindustrial. Results show a warmer and wetter mid-Pliocene climate of the MC and lower sea surface salinity in the surrounding ocean compared with preindustrial. Furthermore, quantify the volume transfer through the ITF; although the ITF may be expected to be hindered by the subaerial shelves, out of 15 models show an increased volume transport compared with preindustrial. In order to avoid undue influence from closely-related models that are present in the PlioMIP2 ensemble, we introduce a new metric - the multi-cluster mean (MCM), based on cluster analysis of the individual models. We study the effect that the choice of MCM versus the more traditional analysis of multi-model mean (MMM) and individual models has on the discrepancy between model results and reconstructed proxy data. The clusters reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the MMM, that the MCM provides us with a new way to explore the results from model ensemble that include similar models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
35. The hydrological cycle and ocean circulation of the Maritime Continent in the mid-Pliocene: results from PlioMIP2.
- Author
-
Ren, Xin, Lunt, Daniel J., Hendy, Erica, von der Heydt, Anna, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L., Williams, Charles J. R., Stepanek, Christian, Guo, Chuncheng, Chandan, Deepak, Lohmann, Gerrit, Tindall, Julia C., Sohl, Linda E., Chandler, Mark A., Kageyama, Masa, Baatsen, Michiel L. J., Tan, Ning, Zhang, Qiong, Feng, Ran, and Chan, Wing-Le
- Subjects
HYDROLOGIC cycle ,OCEAN temperature ,SALINITY ,CLUSTER analysis (Statistics) - Abstract
The Maritime Continent (MC) forms the western boundary of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and relatively small changes in this region can impact the climate locally and remotely. In the mid-Pliocene (from 3.264 to 3.025 million years before present), atmospheric CO
2 concentrations were ~ 400 ppm, and the subaerial Sunda and Sahul shelves made the land-sea distribution of the MC different to today. Topographic changes and elevated levels of CO2 , combined with other forcings, are therefore expected to have driven a substantial climate signal in the MC region at this time. By using the results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PlioMIP2) we study the mean climatic features of the MC in the mid-Pliocene and changes in Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) with respect to preindustrial. Results show a warmer and wetter mid-Pliocene climate of the MC and lower sea surface salinity in the surrounding ocean compared with preindustrial. Furthermore, we quantify the volume transfer through the ITF; although the ITF may be expected to be hindered by the subaerial shelves, 10 out of 15 models show an increased volume transport compared with preindustrial. In order to avoid undue influence from closely-related models that are present in the PlioMIP2 ensemble, we introduce a new metric – the multi-cluster mean (MCM), based on cluster analysis of the individual models. We study the effect that the choice of MCM versus the more traditional analysis of multi-model mean (MMM) and individual models has on the discrepancy between model results and reconstructed proxy data. The clusters reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the MMM, so that the MCM provides us with a new way to explore the results from model ensemble that include similar models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
36. On the climatic influence of CO2 forcing in the Pliocene.
- Author
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Burton, Lauren E., Haywood, Alan M., Tindall, Julia C., Dolan, Aisling M., Hill, Daniel J., Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Chandan, Deepak, Ran Feng, Hunter, Stephen J., Xiangyu Li, Peltier, W. Richard, Ning Tan, Stepanek, Christian, and Zhongshi Zhang
- Abstract
Understanding the dominant climate forcings in the Pliocene is crucial to assessing the usefulness of the Pliocene as an analogue for our warmer future. Here we implement a novel, yet simple linear factorisation method to assess the relative influence of CO
2 forcing in seven models of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) ensemble. Outputs are termed "FCO2 " and show the fraction of Pliocene climate change driven by CO2 . The accuracy of the FCO2 method is first assessed through comparison to an energy balance analysis previously used to assess drivers of surface air temperature in the PlioMIP1 ensemble. After this assessment, the FCO2 method is applied to achieve an understanding of the drivers of Pliocene sea surface temperature and precipitation for the first time. CO2 is found to be the most important forcing in the ensemble for Pliocene surface air temperature (global mean FCO2 = 0.56), sea surface temperature (global mean FCO2 = 0.56) and precipitation (global mean FCO2 = 0.51). The range between individual models is found to be consistent between these three climate variables, and the models generally show good agreement on the sign of the most important forcing. Our results provide the most spatially complete view of the drivers of Pliocene climate to date, and have implications for both data-model comparison and the use of the Pliocene as an analogue for the future. That CO2 is found to be the most important forcing reinforces that the Pliocene is a good palaeoclimate analogue, but the significant effect of non-CO2 forcing at regional scale reminds us that it is not perfect, and this must not be overlooked. This comparison is further complicated when considering the Pliocene as a state in quasi-equilibrium with CO2 forcing compared to the transient warming being experienced at present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
37. Evaluating the large-scale hydrological cycle response within the PlioMIP2 ensemble
- Author
-
Han, Zixuan, primary, Zhang, Qiong, additional, Li, Qiang, additional, Feng, Ran, additional, Haywood, Alan M., additional, Tindall, Julia C., additional, Hunter, Stephen J., additional, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L., additional, Brady, Esther C., additional, Rosenbloom, Nan, additional, Zhang, Zhongshi, additional, Li, Xiangyu, additional, Guo, Chuncheng, additional, Nisancioglu, Kerim H., additional, Stepanek, Christian, additional, Lohmann, Gerrit, additional, Sohl, Linda E., additional, Chandler, Mark A., additional, Tan, Ning, additional, Ramstein, Gilles, additional, Baatsen, Michiel L. J., additional, Heydt, Anna S. von der, additional, Chandan, Deepak, additional, Peltier, W. Richard, additional, Williams, Charles J. R., additional, Lunt, Daniel J., additional, Cheng, Jianbo, additional, Wen, Qin, additional, and Burls, Natalie J., additional
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
38. Supplementary material to "Reduced El Niño variability in the mid-Pliocene according to the PlioMIP2 ensemble"
- Author
-
Oldeman, Arthur Merlijn, primary, Baatsen, Michiel L. J., additional, von der Heydt, Anna S., additional, Dijkstra, Henk A., additional, Tindall, Julia C., additional, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Booth, Alice R., additional, Brady, Esther C., additional, Chan, Wing-Le, additional, Chandan, Deepak, additional, Chandler, Mark A., additional, Contoux, Camille, additional, Feng, Ran, additional, Guo, Chuncheng, additional, Haywood, Alan M., additional, Hunter, Stephen J., additional, Kamae, Youichi, additional, Li, Qiang, additional, Li, Xiangyu, additional, Lohmann, Gerrit, additional, Lunt, Daniel J., additional, Nisancioglu, Kerim H., additional, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L., additional, Peltier, W. Richard, additional, Pontes, Gabriel M., additional, Ramstein, Gilles, additional, Sohl, Linda E., additional, Stepanek, Christian, additional, Tan, Ning, additional, Zhang, Qiong, additional, Zhang, Zhongshi, additional, Wainer, Ilana, additional, and Williams, Charles J. R., additional
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
39. Reduced El Niño variability in the mid-Pliocene according to the PlioMIP2 ensemble
- Author
-
Oldeman, Arthur Merlijn, primary, Baatsen, Michiel L. J., additional, von der Heydt, Anna S., additional, Dijkstra, Henk A., additional, Tindall, Julia C., additional, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Booth, Alice R., additional, Brady, Esther C., additional, Chan, Wing-Le, additional, Chandan, Deepak, additional, Chandler, Mark A., additional, Contoux, Camille, additional, Feng, Ran, additional, Guo, Chuncheng, additional, Haywood, Alan M., additional, Hunter, Stephen J., additional, Kamae, Youichi, additional, Li, Qiang, additional, Li, Xiangyu, additional, Lohmann, Gerrit, additional, Lunt, Daniel J., additional, Nisancioglu, Kerim H., additional, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L., additional, Peltier, W. Richard, additional, Pontes, Gabriel M., additional, Ramstein, Gilles, additional, Sohl, Linda E., additional, Stepanek, Christian, additional, Tan, Ning, additional, Zhang, Qiong, additional, Zhang, Zhongshi, additional, Wainer, Ilana, additional, and Williams, Charles J. R., additional
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
40. Supplementary material to "Simulation of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period using HadGEM3: Experimental design and results from model-model and model-data comparison"
- Author
-
Williams, Charles J. R., primary, Sellar, Alistair A., additional, Ren, Xin, additional, Haywood, Alan M., additional, Hopcroft, Peter, additional, Hunter, Stephen J., additional, Roberts, William H. G., additional, Smith, Robin S., additional, Stone, Emma J., additional, Tindall, Julia C., additional, and Lunt, Daniel J., additional
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
41. Mid-Pliocene West African Monsoon Rainfall as simulated in the PlioMIP2 ensemble
- Author
-
Berntell, Ellen, primary, Zhang, Qiong, additional, Li, Qiang, additional, Haywood, Alan M., additional, Tindall, Julia C., additional, Hunter, Stephen J., additional, Zhang, Zhongshi, additional, Li, Xiangyu, additional, Guo, Chuncheng, additional, Nisancioglu, Kerim H., additional, Stepanek, Christian, additional, Lohmann, Gerrit, additional, Sohl, Linda E., additional, Chandler, Mark A., additional, Tan, Ning, additional, Contoux, Camille, additional, Ramstein, Gilles, additional, Baatsen, Michiel L. J., additional, von der Heydt, Anna S., additional, Chandan, Deepak, additional, Peltier, William Richard, additional, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Chan, Wing-Le, additional, Kamae, Youichi, additional, Williams, Charles J. R., additional, and Lunt, Dan, additional
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
42. Mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation simulated in PlioMIP2
- Author
-
Zhang, Zhongshi, primary, Li, Xiangyu, additional, Guo, Chuncheng, additional, Otterå, Odd Helge, additional, Nisancioglu, Kerim H., additional, Tan, Ning, additional, Contoux, Camille, additional, Ramstein, Gilles, additional, Feng, Ran, additional, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L., additional, Brady, Esther, additional, Chandan, Deepak, additional, Peltier, W. Richard, additional, Baatsen, Michiel L. J., additional, von der Heydt, Anna S., additional, Weiffenbach, Julia E., additional, Stepanek, Christian, additional, Lohmann, Gerrit, additional, Zhang, Qiong, additional, Li, Qiang, additional, Chandler, Mark A., additional, Sohl, Linda E., additional, Haywood, Alan M., additional, Hunter, Stephen J., additional, Tindall, Julia C., additional, Williams, Charles, additional, Lunt, Daniel J., additional, Chan, Wing-Le, additional, and Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, additional
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
43. Lessons from a high-CO2 world: An ocean view from ∼3 million years ago
- Author
-
McClymont, Erin L., Ford, Heather L., Ling Ho, Sze, Tindall, Julia C., Haywood, Alan M., Alonso-Garcia, Montserrat, Bailey, Ian, Berke, Melissa A., Littler, Kate, Patterson, Molly O., Petrick, Benjamin, Peterse, Francien, Christina Ravelo, A., Risebrobakken, Bjorg, De Schepper, Stijn, Swann, George E.A., Thirumalai, Kaustubh, Tierney, Jessica E., van der Weijst, Carolien, White, Sarah, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Baatsen, Michiel L.J., Brady, Esther C., Chan, Wing Le, Chandan, Deepak, Feng, Ran, Guo, Chuncheng, Von Der Heydt, Anna S., Hunter, Stephen, Li, Xiangyi, Lohmann, Gerrit, Nisancioglu, Kerim H., Otto-Bliesner, Bette L., Richard Peltier, W., Stepanek, Christian, Zhang, Zhongshi, Marine and Atmospheric Research, Organic geochemistry, Marine palynology and palaeoceanography, Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Sub Physical Oceanography, and Marine Palynology
- Subjects
Global and Planetary Change ,Stratigraphy ,Palaeontology - Abstract
A range of future climate scenarios are projected for high atmospheric CO2 concentrations, given uncertainties over future human actions as well as potential environmental and climatic feedbacks. The geological record offers an opportunity to understand climate system response to a range of forcings and feedbacks which operate over multiple temporal and spatial scales. Here, we examine a single interglacial during the late Pliocene (KM5c, ca. 3:205_0:01 Ma) when atmospheric CO2 exceeded pre-industrial concentrations, but were similar to today and to the lowest emission scenarios for this century. As orbital forcing and continental configurations were almost identical to today, we are able to focus on equilibrium climate system response to modern and near-future CO2. Using proxy data from 32 sites, we demonstrate that global mean sea-surface temperatures were warmer than pre-industrial values, by 2:3 C for the combined proxy data (foraminifera Mg=Ca and alkenones), or by 3:2 3.4 C (alkenones only). Compared to the preindustrial period, reduced meridional gradients and enhanced warming in the North Atlantic are consistently reconstructed. There is broad agreement between data and models at the global scale, with regional differences reflecting ocean circulation and/or proxy signals. An uneven distribution of proxy data in time and space does, however, add uncertainty to our anomaly calculations. The reconstructed global mean seasurface temperature anomaly for KM5c is warmer than all but three of the PlioMIP2 model outputs, and the reconstructed North Atlantic data tend to align with the warmest KM5c model values. Our results demonstrate that even under low-CO2 emission scenarios, surface ocean warming may be expected to exceed model projections and will be accentuated in the higher latitudes.
- Published
- 2020
44. Lessons from a high-CO2 world: an ocean view from ∼ 3 million years ago
- Author
-
McClymont, Erin L., Ford, Heather L., Ho, Sze Ling, Tindall, Julia C., Haywood, Alan M., Alonso-Garcia, Montserrat, Bailey, Ian, Berke, Melissa A., Littler, Kate, Patterson, Molly O., Petrick, Benjamin, Peterse, Francien, Ravelo, A. Christina, De Schepper, Stijn, Swann, George E. A., Thirumalai, Kaustubh, Tierney, Jessica E., van der Weijst, Carolien, White, Sarah, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Baatsen, Michiel L. J., Brady, Esther C., Chan, Wing-Le, Chandan, Deepak, Feng, Ran, Guo, Chuncheng, von der Heydt, Anna S., Hunter, Stephen, Li, Xiangyi, Lohmann, Gerrit, Nisancioglu, Kerim H., Otto-Bliesner, Bette L., Peltier, W. Richard, Stepanek, Christian, and Zhang, Zhongshi
- Subjects
Global and Planetary Change ,Stratigraphy ,Palaeontology - Abstract
A range of future climate scenarios are projected for high atmospheric CO2 concentrations, given uncertainties over future human actions as well as potential environmental and climatic feedbacks. The geological record offers an opportunity to understand climate system response to a range of forcings and feedbacks which operate over multiple temporal and spatial scales. Here, we examine a single interglacial during the late Pliocene (KM5c, ca. 3.205±0.01 Ma) when atmospheric CO2 exceeded pre-industrial concentrations, but were similar to today and to the lowest emission scenarios for this century. As orbital forcing and continental configurations were almost identical to today, we are able to focus on equilibrium climate system response to modern and near-future CO2. Using proxy data from 32 sites, we demonstrate that global mean sea-surface temperatures were warmer than pre-industrial values, by ∼2.3 ∘C for the combined proxy data (foraminifera Mg∕Ca and alkenones), or by ∼3.2–3.4 ∘C (alkenones only). Compared to the pre-industrial period, reduced meridional gradients and enhanced warming in the North Atlantic are consistently reconstructed. There is broad agreement between data and models at the global scale, with regional differences reflecting ocean circulation and/or proxy signals. An uneven distribution of proxy data in time and space does, however, add uncertainty to our anomaly calculations. The reconstructed global mean sea-surface temperature anomaly for KM5c is warmer than all but three of the PlioMIP2 model outputs, and the reconstructed North Atlantic data tend to align with the warmest KM5c model values. Our results demonstrate that even under low-CO2 emission scenarios, surface ocean warming may be expected to exceed model projections and will be accentuated in the higher latitudes.
- Published
- 2020
45. Lessons from a high CO2 world: an ocean view from ~ 3 million years ago
- Author
-
McClymont, Erin L., Ford, Heather L., Ho, Sze Ling, Tindall, Julia C., Haywood, Alan M., Alonso-Garcia, Montserrat, Bailey, Ian, Berke, Melissa A., Littler, Kate, Patterson, Molly, Petrick, Benjamin, Peterse, Francien, Ravelo, A. Christina, Risebrobakken, Bjørg, Schepper, Stijn, Swann, George E. A., Thirumalai, Kaustubh, Tierney, Jessica E., Weijst, Carolien, and White, Sarah
- Abstract
A range of future climate scenarios are projected for high atmospheric CO2 concentrations, given uncertainties over future human actions as well as potential environmental and climatic feedbacks. The geological record offers an opportunity to understand climate system response to a range of forcings and feedbacks which operate over multiple temporal and spatial scales. Here, we examine a single interglacial during the late Pliocene (KM5c, ca. 3.205 ± 0.01 Ma) when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were higher than pre-industrial, but similar to today and to the lowest emission scenarios for this century. As orbital forcing and continental configurations were almost identical to today, we are able to focus on equilibrium climate system response to modern and near-future CO2. Using proxy data from 32 sites, we demonstrate that global mean sea-surface temperatures were warmer than pre-industrial, by ~ 2.3 ºC for the combined proxy data (foraminifera Mg/Ca and alkenones), or by ~ 3.2 ºC (alkenones only). Compared to the pre-industrial, reduced meridional gradients and enhanced warming in the North Atlantic are consistently reconstructed. There is broad agreement between data and models at the global scale, with regional differences reflecting ocean circulation and/or proxy signals. An uneven distribution of proxy data in time and space does, however, add uncertainty to our anomaly calculations. The reconstructed global mean sea-surface temperature anomaly for KM5c is warmer than all but three of the PlioMIP2 model outputs, and the reconstructed North Atlantic data tend to align with the warmest KM5c model values. Our results demonstrate that even under low CO2 emission scenarios, surface ocean warming may be expected to exceed model projections, and will be accentuated in the higher latitudes.
- Published
- 2020
46. Sea ice feedbacks influence the isotopic signature of Greenland ice sheet elevation changes: last interglacial HadCM3 simulations
- Author
-
Malmierca-Vallet, Irene, primary, Sime, Louise C., additional, Valdes, Paul J., additional, and Tindall, Julia C., additional
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
47. Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations
- Author
-
de Nooijer, Wesley, primary, Zhang, Qiong, additional, Li, Qiang, additional, Zhang, Qiang, additional, Li, Xiangyu, additional, Zhang, Zhongshi, additional, Guo, Chuncheng, additional, Nisancioglu, Kerim H., additional, Haywood, Alan M., additional, Tindall, Julia C., additional, Hunter, Stephen J., additional, Dowsett, Harry J., additional, Stepanek, Christian, additional, Lohmann, Gerrit, additional, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L., additional, Feng, Ran, additional, Sohl, Linda E., additional, Chandler, Mark A., additional, Tan, Ning, additional, Contoux, Camille, additional, Ramstein, Gilles, additional, Baatsen, Michiel L. J., additional, von der Heydt, Anna S., additional, Chandan, Deepak, additional, Peltier, W. Richard, additional, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Chan, Wing-Le, additional, Kamae, Youichi, additional, and Brierley, Chris M., additional
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
48. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity
- Author
-
Haywood, Alan M., primary, Tindall, Julia C., additional, Dowsett, Harry J., additional, Dolan, Aisling M., additional, Foley, Kevin M., additional, Hunter, Stephen J., additional, Hill, Daniel J., additional, Chan, Wing-Le, additional, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Stepanek, Christian, additional, Lohmann, Gerrit, additional, Chandan, Deepak, additional, Peltier, W. Richard, additional, Tan, Ning, additional, Contoux, Camille, additional, Ramstein, Gilles, additional, Li, Xiangyu, additional, Zhang, Zhongshi, additional, Guo, Chuncheng, additional, Nisancioglu, Kerim H., additional, Zhang, Qiong, additional, Li, Qiang, additional, Kamae, Youichi, additional, Chandler, Mark A., additional, Sohl, Linda E., additional, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L., additional, Feng, Ran, additional, Brady, Esther C., additional, von der Heydt, Anna S., additional, Baatsen, Michiel L. J., additional, and Lunt, Daniel J., additional
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
49. The Warm Winter Paradox in the Pliocene High Latitudes.
- Author
-
Tindall, Julia C., Haywood, Alan M., Salzmann, Ulrich, Dolan, Aisling M., and Fletcher, Tamara
- Abstract
Reconciling palaeodata with model simulations of the Pliocene climate is essential for understanding a world with atmospheric CO
2 concentration near 400 parts per million by volume. Both models and data indicate an amplified warming of the high latitudes during the Pliocene, however terrestrial data suggests Pliocene high latitude temperatures were much higher than can be simulated by models. Here we show that understanding the Pliocene high latitude terrestrial temperatures is particularly difficult for the coldest months, where the temperatures obtained from models and different proxies can vary by more than 20 °C. We refer to this mismatch as the 'warm winter paradox'. Analysis suggests the warm winter paradox could be due to a number of factors including: model structural uncertainty, proxy data not being strongly constrained by winter temperatures, uncertainties on data reconstruction methods and also that the Pliocene high latitude climate does not have a modern analogue. Refinements to model boundary conditions or proxy dating are unlikely to contribute significantly to the resolution of the warm winter paradox. For the Pliocene, high latitude, terrestrial, summer temperatures, models and different proxies are in good agreement. Those factors which cause uncertainty on winter temperatures are shown to be much less important for the summer. Until some of the uncertainties on winter, high latitude, Pliocene temperatures can be reduced, we suggest a data-model comparison should focus on the summer. This is expected to give more meaningful and accurate results than a data-model comparison which focuses on the annual mean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
50. Mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation simulated in PlioMIP2
- Author
-
Zhang, Zhongshi, primary, Li, Xiangyu, additional, Guo, Chuncheng, additional, Otterå, Odd Helge, additional, Nisancioglu, Kerim H., additional, Tan, Ning, additional, Contoux, Camille, additional, Ramstein, Gilles, additional, Feng, Ran, additional, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L., additional, Brady, Esther, additional, Chandan, Deepak, additional, Peltier, W. Richard, additional, Baatsen, Michiel L. J., additional, von der Heydt, Anna S., additional, Weiffenbach, Julia E., additional, Stepanek, Christian, additional, Lohmann, Gerrit, additional, Zhang, Qiong, additional, Li, Qiang, additional, Chandler, Mark A., additional, Sohl, Linda E., additional, Haywood, Alan M., additional, Hunter, Stephen J., additional, Tindall, Julia C., additional, Williams, Charles, additional, Lunt, Daniel J., additional, Chan, Wing-Le, additional, and Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, additional
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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