1. Nomogram for predicting severe abdominal adhesions prior to definitive surgery in patients with anastomotic fistula post-small intestine resection: a cohort study.
- Author
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Yao Z, Shang W, Yang F, Tian W, Zhao G, Xu X, Md RZ, Tian T, Li W, Huang M, Zhao Y, and Huang Q
- Subjects
- Humans, Tissue Adhesions etiology, Tissue Adhesions diagnosis, Male, Female, Middle Aged, Cohort Studies, Aged, Intestinal Fistula etiology, Intestinal Fistula surgery, Postoperative Complications etiology, Postoperative Complications diagnosis, Adult, Anastomosis, Surgical adverse effects, Retrospective Studies, Nomograms, Intestine, Small surgery
- Abstract
Background: This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting the presence of severe intra-abdominal adhesions before definitive surgery (DS) for anastomotic fistula following small intestine resection (SIR)., Methods: Patients were enrolled from January 2009 to October 2023 and were randomly divided (2:1) into development and validation cohorts. Predictors of severe adhesion were identified and integrated into a nomogram. The nomogram's performance was evaluated through calibration, discrimination, and clinical utility. Results : A total of 414 patients were included, with 276 in the development cohort and 138 in the validation cohort. Severe adhesion was diagnosed in 54 (13%) patients, including 37 (13.4%) in the development cohort and 17 (12.3%) in the validation cohort ( P = 0.76). Five predictors were identified: Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, duration of early-stage abdominal infection, preoperative albumin (Alb) <35 g/L, visceral to subcutaneous fat area ratio, and preoperative C-reactive protein >10 mg/L. The nomogram demonstrated robust discrimination, with a concordance index (C-index) of 0.80 (95% CI, 0.76-0.90) in internal validation, and was well-calibrated. In the validation cohort, the model maintained good discrimination (C-index = 0.79; 95% CI, 0.67-0.94) and calibration. Decision curve analysis affirmed the nomogram's clinical utility., Conclusion: This study introduces a practical nomogram for assessing the risk of severe abdominal adhesion prior to DS in patients undergoing surgery for anastomotic fistula after SIR., (Copyright © 2025 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.)
- Published
- 2025
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