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Formal control synthesis approaches over stochastic systems have received significant attention in the past few years, in view of their ability to provide provably correct controllers for complex logical specifications in an automated fashion. Examples of complex specifications of interest include properties expressed as formulae in linear temporal logic (LTL) or as automata on infinite strings. A general methodology to synthesize controllers for such properties resorts to symbolic abstractions of the given stochastic systems. Symbolic models are discrete abstractions of the given concrete systems with the property that a controller designed on the abstraction can be refined (or implemented) into a controller on the original system. Although the recent development of techniques for the construction of symbolic models has been quite encouraging, the general goal of formal synthesis over stochastic control systems is by no means solved. A fundamental issue with the existing techniques is the known "curse of dimensionality," which is due to the need to discretize state and input sets and that results in an exponential complexity over the number of state and input variables in the concrete system. In this work we propose a novel abstraction technique for incrementally stable stochastic control systems, which does not require state-space discretization but only input set discretization, and that can be potentially more efficient (and thus scalable) than existing approaches. We elucidate the effectiveness of the proposed approach by synthesizing a schedule for the coordination of two traffic lights under some safety and fairness requirements for a road traffic model. Further we argue that this 5-dimensional linear stochastic control system cannot be studied with existing approaches based on state-space discretization due to the very large number of generated discrete states., Comment: 22 pages, 3 figures. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1407.2730

This paper focuses on optimizing probabilities of events of interest defined over general controlled discrete-time Markov processes. It is shown that the optimization over a wide class of $\omega$-regular properties can be reduced to the solution of one of two fundamental problems: reachability and repeated reachability. We provide a comprehensive study of the former problem and an initial characterisation of the (much more involved) latter problem. A case study elucidates concepts and techniques.

A celebrated result by A. Ionescu Tulcea provides a construction of a probability measure on a product space given a sequence of regular conditional probabilities. We study how the perturbations of the latter in the total variation metric affect the resulting product probability measure.

We study the ruin problem over a risk process described by a discrete-time Markov model. In contrast to previous studies that focused on the asymptotic behaviour of ruin probabilities for large values of the initial capital, we provide a new technique to compute the quantity of interest for any initial value, and with any given precision. Rather than focusing on a particular model for risk processes, we give a general characterization of the ruin probability by providing corresponding recursions and fixpoint equations. Since such equations for the ruin probability are ill-posed in the sense that they do not allow for unique solutions, we approximate the ruin probability by a two-barrier ruin probability, for which fixpoint equations are well-posed. We also show how good the introduced approximation is by providing an explicit bound on the error and by characterizing the cases when the error converges to zero. The presented technique and results are supported by two computational examples over models known in the literature, one of which is extremely heavy-tailed.

This work is devoted to the formal verification of specifications over general discrete-time Markov processes, with an emphasis on infinite-horizon properties. These properties, formulated in a modal logic known as PCTL, can be expressed through value functions defined over the state space of the process. The main goal is to understand how structural features of the model (primarily the presence of absorbing sets) influence the uniqueness of the solutions of corresponding Bellman equations. Furthermore, this contribution shows that the investigation of these structural features leads to new computational techniques to calculate the specifications of interest: the emphasis is to derive approximation techniques with associated explicit convergence rates and formal error bounds.