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Abstract Climate mitigation is reported to benefit biodiversity globally. However, the impacts of mitigation measures based on large-scale land-use modifications can be concentrated in the regions where they are introduced, resulting in regional mismatches between mitigation efforts and biodiversity benefits. Here, we evaluated the impacts of large-scale deployment of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and afforestation to attain the climate stabilization target stated by the Paris Agreement on global and regional biodiversity by using an integrated model framework. Our results highlight that climate mitigation efforts can benefit global biodiversity regardless of large-scale implementation of land-based mitigation measures. However, the negative impacts of mitigation measures on biodiversity are concentrated in regions with a higher contribution to land-use change and carbon sequestration. The results imply the need to consider the unequal regional distribution of benefits from climate mitigation, as well as mitigation options that avoid regional biodiversity loss by minimizing land-use change.

Abstract Afforestation is a major carbon dioxide removal technology but can negatively affect food and land systems. Here, we used an integrated assessment model to quantitatively demonstrate how the selection of forest type to use in afforestation could increase global carbon sequestration without compromising global food and land sustainability. Our findings indicate that if a carbon-intensive forest type is selected, afforestation would increase carbon sequestration by 25% compared to the level assuming the native forest type. At the same time, if implemented inappropriately at a large scale, afforestation would worsen the economy, food, and land systems due to decreased land efficiency in carbon removal compared to bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, leading to increased land expansion for carbon removal, higher food prices, and increased risk of hunger. These results suggest the need to implement carbon-intensive forest types with complementary measures to reduce the adverse impacts on food and land sustainability.

Abstract In retinitis pigmentosa (RP), photoreceptor degeneration leads to progressive visual field loss and visual impairment. Several therapeutic trials are ongoing aiming to establish effective treatments. Although functional evaluations are commonly used in clinical trials, residual ellipsoid zone (EZ) measurement on optical coherence tomography has been shown to be more sensitive to detect disease progression. Establishment of sensitive outcome measurement is essential to develop new therapeutic strategies. In the current study, we evaluated the progression rates of the disease in 76 eyes of 76 patients with RP, using the residual EZ length, ring-shaped macular hyperautofluorescent (AF), and visual field. Decrease rates measured by the residual EZ area and by the hyper-AF ring area were strongly positively correlated (P

Fire emits hazardous air pollutants, the most dominant of which is fine particulate matter of diameter ⩽2.5 μ m (PM _2.5 ). PM _2.5 is a great concern due to its adverse effects on public health. Previous studies have examined the health burden from fire-related PM _2.5 for the historical period; however, future global mortality associated with fire-PM _2.5 , particularly under the coexisting impacts of climate and socioeconomic changes, is yet to be projected. Here, we estimated the mortality associated to fire-PM _2.5 (fire-PM _2.5 mortality) for the present period (2010s) and then projected the mortality for the 2050s and 2090s under 10 scenarios created by combining two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 or 6.0) with five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1–5). We used the Li-Park fire model in combination with a chemical transport model and health risk assessment to calculate fire-PM _2.5 mortality. For the present period, the estimated fire-PM _2.5 mortality was 135 180 (105 403–163 738), which is 1.7 deaths per 100 000 population globally. When countries were grouped by income, the fire-PM _2.5 mortality rate was the highest in the high-income country group and lowest in the lowest-income country group. For the 2050s and 2090s, the fire-PM _2.5 mortality rate was projected to decrease under most scenarios because of decreases in fire emissions and baseline mortality rate. However, a scenario of high population growth and low technical development (SSP3) together with severe global warming (RCP6.0) would lead to an increase in the fire-PM _2.5 mortality rate in the 2090s, particularly in the highest-income countries, due to increased fire under drier and warmer weather conditions. Stratification of countries by gross domestic product indicated the need for adaptation efforts in the highest-income countries to avoid future increases of mortality associated with fire-PM _2.5 .

Abstract We have previously shown that Kyoto University Substances (KUSs), valosin-containing protein (VCP) modulators, suppress cell death in retinal ganglion cells of glaucoma mouse models through alterations of various genes expressions. In this study, among the genes whose expression in retinal ganglion cells was altered by KUS treatment in the N-methyl-d-aspartic acid (NMDA) injury model, we focused on two genes, endothelin-1 (Edn1) and endothelin receptor type B (Ednrb), whose expression was up-regulated by NMDA and down-regulated by KUS treatment. First, we confirmed that the expression of Edn1 and Ednrb was upregulated by NMDA and suppressed by KUS administration in mice retinae. Next, to clarify the influence of KUSs on cell viability in relation to the endothelin signaling, cell viability was examined with or without antagonists or agonists of endothelin and with or without KUS in 661W retinal cells under stress conditions. KUS showed a significant protective effect under glucose-free conditions and tunicamycin-induced stress. This protective effect was partially attenuated in the presence of an endothelin antagonist or agonist under glucose-free conditions. These results suggest that KUSs protect cells partially by suppressing the upregulated endothelin signaling under stress conditions.

Abstract Antibodies to Ro52/tripartite motif-containing 21 (TRIM21), referred to as anti-Ro52, are found in patients diagnosed with diverse systemic autoimmune rheumatic disease and associated with interstitial lung diseases. However, little is known about the clinical characteristics of anti-Ro52 in patients with idiopathic interstitial pneumonias (IIPs). We aimed to analyze the prevalence, co-existent autoantibodies, and clinical characteristics of anti-Ro52 in patients with IIP. The study enrolled 288 patients diagnosed with IIP. Clinical, laboratory and radiographic findings of IIP patients were compared between anti-Ro52 positives and negatives. Anti-Ro52 (20/288; 6.9%), anti-ARS (18/288; 6.3%), and anti-Ro60/SS-A (16/288; 5.6%) were the most common autoantibodies detected in IIP patients. Among 20 IIP patients who had anti-Ro52, anti-ARS was present in 8 (40%) patients. The criteria for interstitial pneumonia with autoimmune features (IPAF) were significantly better fulfilled by patients with anti-Ro52 than those without (P = 0.001). Meeting serological domain (P

Abstract Optical coherence tomography angiography (OCTA) is a new technique for non-invasive imaging of blood vessels, allowing combined evaluation of both deep and surface vessels. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the post-trabeculectomy longitudinal changes in complete avascular area (CAA) of filtering blebs using anterior segment (AS-) OCTA and their association with surgical outcomes. This study included 57 eyes of 53 patients who had undergone trabeculectomy with mitomycin C. AS-OCTA images of filtering bleb were acquired at 3 and 6 months after trabeculectomy, and at 1 month in possible cases. CAAs, regions where complete blood flow was not depicted in AS-OCTA images, were evaluated for their presence, extent, and change over time. CAAs were detected in 37 eyes (65%) and 33 eyes (58%) at 3 and 6 months postoperatively, respectively. The extent of CAAs reduced over time after surgery in most cases. No parameters related to CAAs were significantly associated with surgical success (i.e., intraocular pressure (IOP) ≤ 12 mmHg and IOP reduction > 20% without medication). In conclusion, although it is difficult to predict surgical success by CAA itself, AS-OCTA may be useful for the objective evaluation of the vascularity of filtering blebs.

Anti-fibrillarin autoantibodies are useful for the diagnosis and prognosis of systemic sclerosis (SSc). Anti-fibrillarin produces a clumpy nucleolar pattern in indirect immunofluorescence assay on HEp-2 cells (HEp-2 IFA). Here we develop and validate a reliable cell-based anti-fibrillarin assay (Fibrillarin/CBA) for use in clinical diagnostic laboratories. A TransMembrane Signal was fused to the human fibrillarin gene (TMS-fibrillarin). HEp-2 cells overexpressing transgenic TMS-fibrillarin at the cytoplasmic membrane were used as IFA substrate in the Fibrillarin/CBA. Sixty-two serum samples with nucleolar pattern in the HEp-2 IFA (41 clumpy; 21 homogeneous/punctate) were tested for anti-fibrillarin using Fibrillarin/CBA, immunoprecipitation (IP), line-blot and ELISA. In addition, samples from 106 SSc-patients were evaluated with Fibrillarin/CBA and the results were correlated with disease phenotypes. Thirty-eight of 41 samples with the clumpy nucleolar pattern (92.7%) were positive in the Fibrillarin/CBA, while all 21 samples with other nucleolar patterns were negative. Fibrillarin/CBA results agreed 100% with IP results. Among the 38 Fibrillarin/CBA-positive samples, only 15 (39.5%) and 11 (29%) were positive for anti-fibrillarin in line-blot and ELISA, respectively. Higher frequency of diffuse cutaneous SSc (dcSSc) phenotype (72.7% vs 36.8%; p=0.022), cardiac involvement (36.4% vs 6.5%; p=0.001) and scleroderma renal crisis (18.2% vs 3.3% p = 0.028) was observed in SSc patients with positive compared to negative Fibrillarin/CBA result. Performance of Fibrillarin/CBA in the detection of anti-fibrillarin autoantibodies was comparable to the gold standard IP. Positive Fibrillarin/CBA results correlated with disease phenotypes known to be associated with anti-fibrillarin autoantibodies, underscoring the clinical validation of this novel assay.

Abstract In glaucoma, retinal ganglion cells degenerate progressively, leading to visual field loss and blindness. Presently, the only treatment strategy for glaucoma is lowering the intraocular pressure. However, there are cases in which patients develop progressive visual field loss even though their intraocular pressures are within normal ranges. Therefore, the development of novel therapeutic strategies is an urgent endeavor. Besides high intraocular pressure, several other factors have been proposed to be associated with glaucoma progression, e.g., myopia, blood flow impairment, and amyloid β accumulation. We have previously reported that hop flower extracts possess γ-secretase inhibitory activities and reduce amyloid β deposition in the brains of Alzheimer’s disease model mice. In the current study, we showed that administration of hop flower extracts to glutamate-aspartate transporter (GLAST) knockout mice, the glaucoma model mice, attenuated glaucomatous retinal ganglion cell degeneration. Preservation of retinal ganglion cells in hop flower extract-administered mice was confirmed using optical coherence tomography, confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscopy, and retinal flatmount and histological evaluations. Hop flower extracts are, therefore, deemed a possible candidate as a novel therapeutic agent to treat glaucoma.

What will be the aggregated cost of climate change in achieving the Paris Agreement, including mitigation, adaptation, and residual impacts? Several studies estimated the aggregated cost but did not always consider the critical issues. Some do not address non-market values such as biodiversity and human health, and most do not address differentiating discount rates. In this study, we estimate the aggregated cost of climate change using an integrated assessment model linked with detailed-process-based climate impact models and different discount rates for market and non-market values. The analysis reveals that a climate policy with minimal aggregated cost is sensitive to socioeconomic scenarios and the way discount rates are applied. The results elucidate that a lower discount rate to non-market value—that is, a higher estimate of future value—makes the aggregated cost of achieving the Paris Agreement economically reasonable.

Greenhouse gas mitigation can involve land-use changes that alter the habitat available for wildlife. Here, Ohashi et al. perform an integrated assessment showing that climate mitigation can be beneficial for global biodiversity but may entail local biodiversity losses where land-based mitigation is implemented.

Computable General Equilibrium models can hardly decouple economic growth and energy consumption while energy system models can hardly predict macroeconomic implications of energy system changes. Here the authors investigated the macroeconomic implications of consistently dealing with energy systems and the stability of further power generation and show that GDP losses were significantly lower than those in the conventional economic model by more than 50% in 2050, while industry and service sector energy consumption are the main factors causing these differences.

Abstract Bioenergy plays an important role in low greenhouse gas stabilization scenarios. Among various possible sources of bioenergy, dedicated bio‐crops could contribute to most of the potential. However, large scale bio‐crop deployment raises sustainability concerns. Policies to alleviate the pressure of bio‐crops on the terrestrial environment can affect bioenergy potential and production costs. Here, we estimated the maximum bioenergy potential under environmental protection policies (biodiversity and soil protection) and societal transformation measures from demand and supply side (demand‐side policy includes sustainable diet; supply‐side policy includes advanced technology and trade openness for food) by using an integrated assessment modelling framework, which consists of a general equilibrium model (Asian‐Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium) and a spatial land use allocation model (Asian‐Pacific Integrated Model/Platform for Land‐Use and Environmental Model). We found that the global advanced bioenergy potential under no policy was 245 EJ/year and that 192 EJ/year could be produced under US$5/GJ. These figures were 149 EJ/year and 110 EJ/year, respectively, under a full environmental policy. Biodiversity protection has a greater impact than soil protection due to its larger coverage and stronger implementation. Societal transformation measures effectively increase them to 186 EJ/year and 143 EJ/year, respectively, even under full environmental policies. These results imply that the large‐scale bioenergy deployment possibly needed for the climate target to limit the global mean temperature increase well below 2°C compared to the preindustrial level might face a trade‐off with environmental protection targets and that possible mitigation pathways in harmony with other environmental issues need to be explored.

There lacks model comparison of global land use change projections. Here the authors explored how different long-term drivers determine land use and food availability projections and they showed that the key determinants population growth and improvements in agricultural efficiency.

The Paris Agreement has confirmed that the ultimate climate policy goal is to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 °C. Moving the goal from 2 °C to 1.5 °C calls for much more concerted effort, and presents greater challenges and costs. This study uses an Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) to evaluate the role of socioeconomic factors (e.g. technological cost and energy demand assumptions) in changing mitigation costs and achieving the 1.5 °C and 2 °C goals, and to identify the channels through which socioeconomic factors affect mitigation costs. Four families of socioeconomic factors were examined, namely low-carbon energy-supply technologies, end-use energy-efficiency improvements, lifestyle changes and biomass-technology promotion (technology cost reduction and social acceptance promotion). The results show that technological improvement in low-carbon energy-supply technologies is the most important factor in reducing mitigation costs. Moreover, under the constraints of the 1.5 °C goal, the relative effectiveness of other socioeconomic factors, such as energy efficiency improvement, lifestyle changes and biomass-related technology promotion, becomes more important in decreasing mitigation cost in the 1.5 °C scenarios than in the 2 °C scenarios.

Abstract Background Retinitis pigmentosa (RP), a neurodegenerative disease, is occasionally accompanied by choroidal neovascularization (CNV) and cystoid macular oedema. It is presently treated with repeated intravitreal injections of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) agents. However, there are concerns regarding long-term inhibition of VEGF by the use of these agents, especially in cases involving neurodegenerative diseases, since VEGFs have a neuroprotective effect. Currently, there are no reports on the long-term safety of anti-VEGF therapy in patients with RP. Case presentation In this report, we describe the case of a 56-year-old female patient with CNV associated with RP who was treated with anti-VEGF therapy for 8 years. She had autosomal dominant RP with a heterozygous PRPH2 mutation (c.410G > A) and complained of metamorphopsia in her left eye. Examinations revealed CNV with serous retinal detachment. She was treated with as-needed injections for 2 years; however, she experienced a recurrence. Therefore, we switched to a bimonthly regimen that was continued for 6 years. In total, the patient received 34 injections of various types of anti-VEGFs over 8 years. No recurrences were noted during that time, and we have not detected any negative effects concerning the progression of visual field loss in comparison with the fellow eye. Conclusions No negative effects related to the progression of visual field loss were observed during continuous treatment with anti-VEGF agents for 8 years in our patient.

Objective: This study aimed to verify the reliability and validity of a Japanese version of the S-UPPS-P Impulsive Behavior Scale. This is expected to facilitate comparisons of findings between international and Japanese samples in studies of impulsivity. Methods: Two surveys were conducted. In the first survey, 632 participants, aged 20–44 years old, completed a translated version of the Japanese S-UPPS-P Impulsive Behavior Scale, the Motor Impulsiveness Scale, a short form of the Big-Five scale, the short Grit scale, and the brief version of the self-control scale. Two weeks later, the second survey containing the S-UPPS-P and the motor impulsiveness scale were completed by 450 participants who had completed the first survey to examine test-retest reliability. Results: In the first survey, an exploratory factor analysis was performed on the S-UPPS-P responses. A four-factor solution was the most suitable solution, with the factors of “Lack of Perseverance,” “Lack of Premeditation,” “Sensation Seeking,” and “Negative-Positive Urgency.” Then, a confirmatory factor analysis was performed. The conformity index of the original five-factor model was slightly better than that of the four-factor model. We also compared the five-factor model’s conformity index with three other models that had been examined in the original and other foreign language versions of the S-UPPS-P. The five-interrelated factor model had the best model fit. The reliability of the five scales was confirmed. The scales exhibited internal consistency with α coefficients ranging from 0.65 to 0.79, in addition to the test-retest reliability ranging from 0.74 to 0.80. The convergent validity of each S-UPPS-P scale was supported by high relationships with the four personality scales, with the highest correlation coefficients ranging from 0.37 to −0.67. Conclusion: The reliability and validity of the Japanese version of the S-UPPS-P were confirmed, despite the minor limitations of the exploratory factor analysis providing a four-factor solution instead of a five-factor solution, and the α reliability coefficients of two scales being acceptable but rather low. Thus, comparisons of findings between international and Japanese studies on impulsivity could be facilitated.

Purpose: To investigate longitudinal changes in the retinal nerve fiber bundle in eyes with primary open angle glaucoma using adaptive optics scanning laser ophthalmoscopy. Methods: A prospective observational case series. Fourteen eyes from 12 patients with primary open angle glaucoma that exhibited retinal nerve fiber layer defects on fundus photography were imaged with adaptive optics scanning laser ophthalmoscopy over time. Results: The expansion of retinal nerve fiber bundle narrowing was observed on adaptive optics scanning laser ophthalmoscopy in 8 eyes (57.1%) over a period of 1.44 ± 0.42 years. Retinal nerve fiber bundle narrowing expanded horizontally in 2 eyes and vertically in 6 eyes. In 3 eyes, changes in the retinal nerve fiber layer were only detectable on adaptive optics scanning laser ophthalmoscopy images. Conclusions and Importance: The expansion of retinal nerve fiber bundle narrowing was observed using adaptive optics scanning laser ophthalmoscopy. Accordingly, this tool may be a useful tool for detecting glaucoma-related changes in retinal nerve fibers in a short time.

Climate change mitigation efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have associated costs, but there are also potential benefits from improved air quality, such as public health improvements and the associated cost savings. A multidisciplinary modeling approach can better assess the co-benefits from climate mitigation for human health and provide a justifiable basis for establishment of adequate climate change mitigation policies and public health actions. An integrated research framework was adopted by combining a computable general equilibrium model, an air quality model, and a health impact assessment model, to explore the long-term economic impacts of climate change mitigation in South Korea through 2050. Mitigation costs were further compared with health-related economic benefits under different socioeconomic and climate change mitigation scenarios. Achieving ambitious targets (i.e., stabilization of the radiative forcing level at 3.4 W/m2) would cost 1.3–8.5 billion USD in 2050, depending on varying carbon prices from different integrated assessment models. By contrast, achieving these same targets would reduce costs by 23 billion USD from the valuation of avoided premature mortality, 0.14 billion USD from health expenditures, and 0.38 billion USD from reduced lost work hours, demonstrating that health benefits alone noticeably offset the costs of cutting GHG emissions in South Korea. Keywords: Climate mitigation, Air pollution, Health impact assessment, Co-benefit analysis, CGE, IMED Model

To achieve the climate target of the Paris Agreement substantial emission reductions will be required across economic sectors. Here the authors show that agriculture can make a significant contribution to non-CO2 mitigation efforts through structural change in the livestock sector and the deployment of technical options.

Abstract Background Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is a prognostic indicator of poor outcome in myositis. Although the pathogenesis of myositis-associated ILD is not well understood, neutrophils are thought to play a pivotal role. Neutrophils store azurophil granules that contain defensins, which are antimicrobial peptides that regulate the inflammatory response. Here, we evaluated levels of the human neutrophil peptides (HNPs) α-defensin 1 through 3 in patients with myositis-associated ILD to determine whether HNPs represent disease markers and play a role in the pathogenesis of myositis-associated ILD. Methods HNP levels were measured in the plasma and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) of 56 patients with myositis-associated ILD and 24 healthy controls by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Results Analysis revealed significantly higher HNP levels in plasma and BALF samples from patients with myositis-associated ILD as compared to those of healthy controls; however, plasma HNPs were significantly correlated with total cell counts in BALF. Additionally, BALF HNP levels were positively correlated with serum surfactant protein-A and the percentage of neutrophils in BALF, and BALF HNP levels correlated with the percentage of reticular opacities in high-resolution computed tomography results for patients with anti-aminoacyl-tRNA synthetase (ARS) antibody positive myositis-associated ILD. Survival did not differ between patients with higher and lower levels of plasma and BALF HNPs. Conclusions Plasma and BALF HNPs might reflect the disease activities of myositis-associated ILD, especially in patients with anti-ARS antibody positive myositis-associated ILD. However further studies are necessary to clarify whether HNPs represent disease markers and play roles in disease pathogenesis.

In Japan, as in other countries, the externalization of food preparation is increasing. Japanese people are interested in the combination of food and tableware and they are concerned about transferring ready-made meals from plastic containers to natural tableware. This study aimed to examine the varying evaluations of meals due to differences in tableware. In this study, we investigated the effect of tableware on meal satisfaction, which is emphasized in Japanese culture. We studied the difference in the evaluation of ready-made meals (a rice ball, salad, croquette, and corn soup) before, during, and after a meal under two conditions: plastic tableware and natural wooden tableware. The results showed that there was no difference in the perceptual evaluation of taste and texture during the meal, except for the color of the salad and the temperature of the soup. On the other hand, meals served on natural wooden tableware were rated more positively than those served on plastic tableware before and after meals. These results suggest that, in Japan, the use of tableware, even for ready-made meals, increases the level of meal satisfaction. These findings have implications for both the providers and consumers of ready-made meals as well as the food industry.

Concentric retinitis pigmentosa (RP), in which retinal degeneration is limited in the periphery, is rare and little information exists to date on the subject. Herein, we describe the clinical and genetic characteristics of this atypical form of RP. We retrospectively reviewed our database and identified 14 patients with concentric RP. Additionally, 14 patients with age-matched typical RP were also included. Patients with concentric RP had better visual acuity (logarithm of minimum angle of resolution −0.04 vs. 0.32, p = 0.047) and preserved ellipsoid zones (7630 µm vs. 2646 µm, p < 0.001) compared to typical RP. The electroretinogram showed subnormal but recordable responses in patients with concentric RP. Genetic testing was done in nine patients with concentric RP and revealed causative mutations in the EYS gene in one patient and the RP9 gene in one patient. Two patients had myotonic dystrophy and the diagnosis was revised as myotonic dystrophy-associated retinopathy. Concentric RP is a rare, atypical form of RP with better visual function. There is some overlap in the causative genes in concentric and typical RP. Myotonic dystrophy-associated retinopathy is an important differential diagnosis.

Abstract Although biophysical yield responses to local warming have been studied, we know little about how crop yield growth—a function of climate and technology—responds to global temperature and socioeconomic changes. Here, we present the yield growth of major crops under warming conditions from preindustrial levels as simulated by a global gridded crop model. The results revealed that global mean yields of maize and soybean will stagnate with warming even when agronomic adjustments are considered. This trend is consistent across socioeconomic assumptions. Low-income countries located at low latitudes will benefit from intensive mitigation and from associated limited warming trends (1.8 °C), thus preventing maize, soybean and wheat yield stagnation. Rice yields in these countries can improve under more aggressive warming trends. The yield growth of maize and soybean crops in high-income countries located at mid and high latitudes will stagnate, whereas that of rice and wheat will not. Our findings underpin the importance of ambitious climate mitigation targets for sustaining yield growth worldwide.

Abstract Although ocular circulation at the retina and optic disc is known to be associated with the pathology of glaucoma, direct measurement of blood flow velocity has been difficult to obtain. This prospective observational study enrolled 11 consecutive patients with treatment-naïve primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) and 11 healthy subjects, and the effects of topical tafluprost treatment on ocular circulation were examined at baseline and at 1, 4, and 12 weeks after initiating treatment with topical tafluprost on POAG patients using multiple modalities, which include adaptive optics scanning laser ophthalmoscopy (AOSLO). Baseline mean intraocular pressure (IOP) was significantly higher and mean parafoveal blood flow velocity (pBFV) was significantly lower in POAG eyes than in healthy eyes. Mean IOP was significantly decreased (1 week, −19.1%; 4 weeks, −17.7%; and 12 weeks, −23.5%; all P

Even though enormous expectations for greenhouse gas mitigation in the land use sector exist at the same time worries about potential implications for sustainable development have been raised as many Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are closely tied to developments in the sector. Here we assess the implications of achieving selected key SDG indicators for Zero Hunger, Clean Water and Sanitation, Responsible Consumption and Production, and Life on Land on the land-based climate change mitigation potential. We find that protecting highly biodiverse ecosystems has profound impacts on biomass potentials (−30% at >12 US dollar per gigajoule) while other SDGs mainly affect greenhouse gas abatement potentials. Achieving SDGs delivers synergies with greenhouse gas abatement and may even in the absence of additional mitigation policies allow to realize up to 25% of the expected greenhouse gas abatement from land use required to stay on track with the 1.5 °C target until 2050. Future land use mitigation policies should consider and take advantage of these synergies across SDGs.

A carbon tax is one of the measures used to reduce GHG emissions, as it provides a strong political instrument for reaching the goal, stated in the Paris Agreement, of limiting the global mean temperature increase to well below 2 °C. While one aspect of a carbon tax is its ability to change income distribution, no quantitative assessment has been made within the context of global poverty. Here, we explore future poverty scenarios and show the extent to which carbon tax revenue, obtained to limit global warming to well below 2 °C, has the potential to help eradicate poverty. In order to better understand the relationship between poverty and climate change mitigation policy, we developed a novel modelling framework that includes a module representing poverty indicators in the conventional integrated assessment model. We found that the poverty gap, which is a measure of the shortfall in income relative to the poverty line, is 84 billion US dollars (USD) and that the carbon tax revenue potential for the above-mentioned 2 °C consistent climate change mitigation would be 1600 billion USD in 2030. Many low-income countries cannot fill the poverty gap using only their own domestic revenue; however, this shortfall could be met by using a portion of the revenue in high-income countries. Our results demonstrate that climate change mitigation can have a great potential in synergy effects for resolving poverty and illustrates the importance of international cooperation.

Actions tackling with climate change can cause co-benefits and trade-offs with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) concerned with air pollution, water scarcity, food security, land use, and sustainable energy. Such interactions can be greatly influenced by socioeconomic conditions. The impacts of socioeconomic conditions on multiple SDGs have not been evaluated separately from climate policies. This paper employs a Representative Concentration Pathways–Shared Socio-economic Pathways (RCP-SSP) framework and the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/computable general equilibrium (AIM/CGE) integrated assessment model to identify the global multi-sectoral consequences of socioeconomic conditions through 2050 under future SSP scenarios. Results show that changes of socioeconomic conditions consistent with the SSP1 pathway could always improve SDG indicators, with or without climate policies. In many respects, socioeconomic conditions are more important than climate policies in achieving SDGs, particularly SDGs concerned with food security and energy affordability, as well as in simultaneously achieving multiple SDGs. We conclude that the advantages of a joint effort to implement climate policies and promulgate socioeconomic changes should be recognized by policy makers.

Synergies and trade-offs exist between climate mitigation actions and target indicators of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Some studies have assessed such relationships, but the degree of such interaction remains poorly understood. Here, we show the SDG implications associated with CO _2 emissions reductions. We developed ‘marginal SDG-emissions-reduction values (MSVs)’, which represent the marginal impacts on SDG indicators caused by a unit CO _2 emissions reduction. This metric is applicable to national assessments and was applied to Asia. We found clear relationships between CO _2 emissions reduction rates and many SDG targets. For instance, 1% reduction of CO _2 can avoid 0.57% of air pollution-related premature deaths (SDG3), whereas the mean species richness (SDG15) is decreased by 0.026% with the same reduction (not including climate change impacts). Our findings are useful for assessing the SDG implications associated with CO _2 emissions reduction targets, which will help inform national climate policies.

Retinal neuronal cell death underlies many incurable eye diseases such as retinitis pigmentosa (RP) and glaucoma, and causes adult blindness. We have shown that maintenance of ATP levels via inhibiting ATP consumption is a promising strategy for preventing neuronal cell death. Here, we show that branched chain amino acids (BCAAs) are able to increase ATP production by enhancing glycolysis. In cell culture, supplementation of the culture media with BCAAs, but not glucose alone, enhanced cellular ATP levels, which was canceled by a glycolysis inhibitor. Administration of BCAAs to RP mouse models, rd10 and rd12, significantly attenuated photoreceptor cell death morphologically and functionally, even when administration was started at later stages. Administration of BCAAs in a glaucoma mouse model also showed significant attenuation of retinal ganglion cell death. These results suggest that administration of BCAAs could contribute to a comprehensive therapeutic strategy for retinal neurodegenerative diseases such as RP and glaucoma.

In climate change research, future scenarios of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs) are used in climate models (CMs) and earth system models to analyze future interactions and feedback between human activities and climate. However, the spatial resolutions of IAMs and CMs differ. IAMs usually disaggregate the world into 10-30 aggregated regions, whereas CMs require a grid-based spatial resolution. Therefore, downscaling emissions data from IAMs into a finer scale is necessary to input the emissions into CMs. In this study, we examined whether differences in downscaling methods significantly affect climate variables such as temperature and precipitation. We tested two downscaling methods using the same regionally aggregated sulfur emissions scenario obtained from the Asian-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model. The downscaled emissions were fed into the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC). One of the methods assumed a strong convergence of national emissions intensity (e.g., emissions per gross domestic product), while the other was based on inertia (i.e., the base-year remained unchanged). The emissions intensities in the downscaled spatial emissions generated from the two methods markedly differed, whereas the emissions densities (emissions per area) were similar. We investigated whether the climate change projections of temperature and precipitation would significantly differ between the two methods by applying a field significance test, and found little evidence of a significant difference between the two methods. Moreover, there was no clear evidence of a difference between the climate simulations based on these two downscaling methods.

Clarifying characteristics of hazards and risks of climate change at 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming is important for understanding the implications of the Paris Agreement. We perform and analyze large ensembles of 2 °C and 1.5 °C warming simulations. In the 2 °C runs, we find substantial increases in extreme hot days, heavy rainfalls, high streamflow and labor capacity reduction related to heat stress. For example, about half of the world’s population is projected to experience a present day 1-in-10 year hot day event every other year at 2 °C warming. The regions with relatively large increases of these four hazard indicators coincide with countries characterized by small CO _2 emissions, low-income and high vulnerability. Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, compared to 2 °C, is projected to lower increases in the four hazard indicators especially in those regions.

The Paris Agreement set long-term global climate goals to pursue stabilization of the global mean temperature increase at below 2 °C (the so-called 2 °C goal). Individual countries submitted their own short-term targets, mostly for the year 2030. Meanwhile, the UN’s sustainable development goals (SDGs) were designed to help set multiple societal goals with respect to socioeconomic development, the environment, and other issues. Climate policies can lead to intended or unintended consequences in various sectors, but these types of side effects rarely have been studied in China, where climate policies will play an important role in global greenhouse gas emissions and sustainable development is a major goal. This study identified the extent to which climate policies in line with the 2 °C goal could have multi-sectoral consequences in China. Carbon constraints in China in the 2Deg scenario are set to align with the global 2 °C target based on the emissions per capita convergence principle. Carbon policies for NDC pledges as well as policies in China regarding renewables, air pollution control, and land management were also simulated. The results show that energy security and air quality have co-benefits related to climate policies, whereas food security and land resources experienced negative side effects (trade-offs). Near-term climate actions were shown to help reduce these trade-offs in the mid-term. A policy package that included food and land subsidies also helped achieve climate targets while avoiding the adverse side effects caused by the mitigation policies. The findings should help policymakers in China develop win–win policies that do not negatively affect some sectors, which could potentially enhance their ability to take climate actions to realize the global 2 °C goal within the context of sustainable development.

Glaucoma is a major cause of adult blindness due to gradual death of retinal ganglion cells. Currently, no therapeutics are available for the protection of these cells from the cell death. We have recently succeeded in synthesizing novel compounds, KUSs (Kyoto University Substances), which can reduce cellular ATP consumption by specifically inhibiting the ATPase activities of VCP, a major ATPase in the cell, and we have shown that KUSs could mitigate the disease progression of rd10, a mouse model of retinitis pigmentosa, without any apparent side effects. Here we show that KUSs (e.g. KUS121 and KUS187) can prevent antimycin- and oligomycin-induced ATP depletion, endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress, and cell death in neuronally differentiated PC12 cells. Furthermore, KUSs manifest significant efficacies on several mouse models of glaucoma. KUS administration prevented or mitigated ER stress and subsequent apoptotic cell death of retinal ganglion cells in an acute injury mouse model of retinal ganglion cell loss, which was induced with N-methyl-D-aspartate. In a mouse model of glaucoma with high intraocular pressure, KUSs prevented the typical glaucoma pathologies, i.e. enlargement of optic disc cupping and thinning of the retinal nerve fiber layer. KUSs also preserved visual functions in GLAST knockout mice, a mouse model for chronic retinal ganglion cell loss. We propose “ATP maintenance” via inhibition of ATPase activities of VCP as a promising new neuroprotective strategy for currently incurable eye diseases, such as glaucoma.

Energy demand associated with space heating and cooling is expected to be affected by climate change. There are several global projections of space heating and cooling use that take into consideration climate change, but a comprehensive uncertainty of socioeconomic and climate conditions, including a 1.5 °C global mean temperature change, has never been assessed. This paper shows the economic impact of changes in energy demand for space heating and cooling under multiple socioeconomic and climatic conditions. We use three shared socioeconomic pathways as socioeconomic conditions. For climate conditions, we use two representative concentration pathways that correspond to 4.0 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios, and a 1.5 °C scenario driven from the 2.0 °C scenario with assumption in conjunction with five general circulation models. We find that the economic impacts of climate change are largely affected by socioeconomic assumptions, and global GDP change rates range from +0.21% to −2.01% in 2100 under the 4.0 °C scenario, depending on the socioeconomic condition. Sensitivity analysis that differentiates the thresholds of heating and cooling degree days clarifies that the threshold is a strong factor that generates these differences. Meanwhile, the impact of the 1.5 °C is small regardless of socioeconomic assumptions (−0.02% to −0.06%). The economic loss caused by differences in socioeconomic assumption under the 1.5 °C scenario is much smaller than that under the 2 °C scenario, which implies that stringent climate mitigation can work as a risk hedge to socioeconomic development diversity.

Climate change mitigation to limit warming to 1.5 °C or well below 2 °C, as suggested by the Paris Agreement, can rely on large-scale deployment of land-related measures (e.g. afforestation, or bioenergy production). This can increase food prices, and hence raises food security concerns. Here we show how an inclusive policy design can avoid these adverse side-effects. Food-security support through international aid, bioenergy tax, or domestic reallocation of income can shield impoverished and vulnerable people from the additional risk of hunger that would be caused by the economic effects of policies narrowly focussing on climate objectives only. In the absence of such support, 35% more people might be at risk of hunger by 2050 (i.e. 84 million additional people) in a 2 °C-consistent scenario. The additional global welfare changes due to inclusive climate policies are small (

Background : In response to the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the research community was asked to estimate differences in sectoral-specific risks at 1.5 °C and 2 °C increases in global mean surface air temperature (SAT) above pre-industrial temperatures. Projections of the health risks of climate change typically focus on time periods and not on the magnitude of temperature change. Objective : Summarize projections of health risks associated with temperature extremes and occupational heat stress, air quality, undernutrition, and vector-borne diseases to estimate how these risks would differ at increases in warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and higher. Methods : A comprehensive search strategy included English language publications since 2008 projecting health risks of climate change identified through established databases. Of 109 relevant publications, nearly all were for future time periods (e.g. in 2030 and 2050) rather than future SAT thresholds. Time periods were therefore converted to temperature changes based on the models and scenarios used. Results : Warming of 1.5 °C is reached in about the 2030s for all multi-model means under all scenarios and warming of 2 °C is reached in about the 2050s under most scenarios. Of the 40 studies projecting risks at 1.5 and 2 °C increases of SAT, risks were higher at 2 °C for adverse health consequences associated with exposures to high ambient temperatures, ground-level ozone, and undernutrition, with regional variations. Risks for vector-borne diseases could increase or decrease with higher global mean temperatures, depending on regional climate responses and disease ecology. Conclusions : The burden of many climate-sensitive health risks are projected to be greater at an increase of 2 °C SAT above pre-industrial temperatures than at 1.5 °C. Future projection studies should report results based on changes in global and regional mean SATs and time, to facilitate quantitative analyses of health risks and to inform the level of ambition and timing of adaptation interventions.

To examine microcystic inner nuclear layer (INL) changes in glaucomatous eyes and to determine associated factors.Retrospective, cross-sectional, observational study.Two hundred seventeen eyes of 133 patients with primary open angle glaucoma (POAG), 41 eyes of 32 patients with preperimetric glaucoma and 181 normal eyes of 117 subjects were ultimately included. Microcystic INL lesions were examined with infrared fundus images and with 19 vertical spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT) images in the macular area.Microcystic INL changes were observed in 6.0% of eyes with POAG, but none of the normal eyes or eyes with preperimetric glaucoma showed microcystic INL changes. The proportion of eyes with advanced glaucoma was significantly larger (P = 0.013) in eyes with microcystic lesions than without. The visual field mean deviation (MD) slope was also significantly worse (P = 0.027) in eyes with microcystic lesions. No significant differences were observed in age, sex, refraction, axial length, intraocular pressure, or MD value between eyes with and without microcystic INL lesions. In several cases, microcystic INL lesions occurred along with glaucomatous visual field progression. The retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness (P = 0.013) and ganglion cell layer (GCL) + inner plexiform layer thickness (P = 0.023) were significantly lower in areas with microcystic lesions than without. The INL was also significantly thicker (P = 0.002) in areas with microcystic lesions.Microcystic INL lesions in glaucomatous eyes are closely associated with RNFL and GCL thinning and correlated with worse MD slope. These INL lesions may indicate focal and progressive damage in glaucoma.

The exposure of workers to hot environments is expected to increase as a result of climate change. In order to prevent heat-related illness, it is recommended that workers take breaks during working hours. However, this would lead to reductions in worktime and labor productivity. In this study, we estimate the economic cost of heat-related illness prevention through worker breaks associated with climate change under a wide range of climatic and socioeconomic conditions. We calculate the worktime reduction based on the recommendation of work/rest ratio and the estimated future wet bulb glove temperature, which is an index of heat stresses. Corresponding GDP losses (cost of heat-related illness prevention through worker breaks) are estimated using a computable general equilibrium model throughout this century. Under the highest emission scenario, GDP losses in 2100 will range from 2.6 to 4.0% compared to the current climate conditions. On the other hand, GDP losses will be less than 0.5% if the 2.0 °C goal is achieved. The benefit of climate-change mitigation for avoiding worktime loss is comparable to the cost of mitigation (cost of the greenhouse gas emission reduction) under the 2.0 °C goal. The relationship between the cost of heat-related illness prevention through worker breaks and global average temperature rise is approximately linear, and the difference in economic loss between the 1.5 °C goal and the 2.0 °C goal is expected to be approximately 0.3% of global GDP in 2100. Although climate mitigation and socioeconomic development can limit the vulnerable regions and sectors, particularly in developing countries, outdoor work is still expected to be affected. The effectiveness of some adaptation measures such as additional installation of air conditioning devices or shifting the time of day for working are also suggested. In order to reduce the economic impacts, adaptation measures should also be implemented as well as pursing ambitious climate change mitigation targets.

To keep global warming possibly below 1.5 °C and mitigate adverse effects of climate change, agriculture, like all other sectors, will have to contribute to efforts in achieving net negative emissions by the end of the century. Cost-efficient distribution of mitigation across regions and economic sectors is typically calculated using a global uniform carbon price in climate stabilization scenarios. However, in reality such a carbon price would substantially affect food availability. Here, we assess the implications of climate change mitigation in the land use sector for agricultural production and food security using an integrated partial equilibrium modelling framework and explore ways of relaxing the competition between mitigation in agriculture and food availability. Using a scenario that limits global warming cost-efficiently across sectors to 1.5 °C, results indicate global food calorie losses ranging from 110–285 kcal per capita per day in 2050 depending on the applied demand elasticities. This could translate into a rise in undernourishment of 80–300 million people in 2050. Less ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation in the land use sector reduces the associated food security impact significantly, however the 1.5 °C target would not be achieved without additional reductions outside the land use sector. Efficiency of GHG mitigation will also depend on the level of participation globally. Our results show that if non-Annex-I countries decide not to contribute to mitigation action while other parties pursue their mitigation efforts to reach the global climate target, food security impacts in these non-Annex-I countries will be higher than if they participate in a global agreement, as inefficient mitigation increases agricultural production costs and therefore food prices. Land-rich countries with a high proportion of emissions from land use change, such as Brazil, could reduce emissions with only a marginal effect on food availability. In contrast, agricultural mitigation in high population (density) countries, such as China and India, would lead to substantial food calorie loss without a major contribution to global GHG mitigation. Increasing soil carbon sequestration on agricultural land would allow reducing the implied calorie loss by 65% when sticking to the initially estimated land use mitigation requirements, thereby limiting the impact on undernourishment to 20–75 million people, and storing significant amounts of carbon in soils.

PURPOSE:To investigate whether lamina cribrosa (LC) defects are associated with optic disc morphology in primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) eyes with high myopia. METHODS:A total of 129 POAG patients and 55 age-matched control subjects with high myopia were evaluated. Three-dimensional scan images obtained by swept source optical coherence tomography were used to detect LC defects. Radial B-scans and infrared images obtained by spectral domain optical coherence tomography were used to measure β-peripapillary atrophy (PPA) lengths with and without Bruch's membrane (BM) (temporal, nasal, superior, and inferior), tilt angle (vertical and horizontal), and disc diameter (transverse and longitudinal). Peripapillary intrachoroidal cavitations (PICCs), disc area, ovality index, and cyclotorsion of the optic disc were analyzed as well. RESULTS:LC defects were found in 70 of 129 (54.2%) POAG eyes and 1 of 55 (1.8%) control eyes (P < 0.001). Age, sex, spherical equivalent, axial length, intraocular pressure, and central corneal thickness were not significantly different among POAG eyes with LC defects, POAG eyes without LC defects, and control eyes. Temporal PPA lengths without BM in all three groups correlated significantly with vertical and horizontal tilt angles, although no PPA length with BM correlated significantly with any tilt angle. PICCs were detected more frequently in POAG eyes with LC defects than those without LC defects (P = 0.01) and control eyes (P = 0.02). POAG eyes with LC defects showed a smaller ovality index (P = 0.004), longer temporal PPA without BM (P < 0.001), and larger vertical/horizontal tilt angles (vertical, P < 0.001; horizontal, P = 0.01), and transverse diameter (P = 0.01). In multivariate analysis for the presence of LC defects, presence of POAG (P < 0.001) and vertical tilt angle (P < 0.001) were identified as significant. CONCLUSIONS:The presence of LC defects was associated with myopic optic disc morphology in POAG eyes with high myopia.

Under the Paris Agreement, parties set and implement their own emissions targets as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to tackle climate change. International carbon emissions trading is expected to reduce global mitigation costs. Here, we show the benefit of emissions trading under both NDCs and a more ambitious reduction scenario consistent with the 2 °C goal. The results show that the global welfare loss, which was measured based on estimated household consumption change in 2030, decreased by 75% (from 0.47% to 0.16%), as a consequence of achieving NDCs through emissions trading. Furthermore, achieving the 2 °C targets without emissions trading led to a global welfare loss of 1.4%–3.4%, depending on the burden-sharing scheme used, whereas emissions trading reduced the loss to around 1.5% (from 1.4% to 1.7%). These results indicate that emissions trading is a valuable option for the international system, enabling NDCs and more ambitious targets to be achieved in a cost-effective manner.

Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are being developed internationally for cross-sectoral assessments of climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. These are five scenarios that include both qualitative and quantitative information for mitigation and adaptation challenges to climate change. In this study, we quantified scenarios for the risk of hunger in the 21st century using SSPs, and clarified elements that influence future hunger risk. There were two primary findings: (1) risk of hunger in the 21st-century greatly differed among five SSPs; and (2) population growth, improvement in the equality of food distribution within a country, and increases in food consumption mainly driven by income growth greatly influenced future hunger risk and were important elements in its long-term assessment.

This study assessed the health burden attributable to childhood underweight through 2050 focusing on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), by considering the latest scenarios for climate change studies (representative concentration pathways and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)) and conducting sensitivity analysis. A regression model for estimating DALYs attributable to childhood underweight (DAtU) was developed using the relationship between DAtU and childhood stunting. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model, a crop model, and two regression models to assess the future health burden. We found that (i) world total DAtU decreases from 2005 by 28 ∼ 63% in 2050 depending on the socioeconomic scenarios. Per capita DAtU also decreases in all regions under either scenario in 2050, but the decreases vary significantly by regions and scenarios. (ii) The impact of climate change is relatively small in the framework of this study but, on the other hand, socioeconomic conditions have a great impact on the future health burden. (iii) Parameter uncertainty of the regression models is the second largest factor on uncertainty of the result following the changes in socioeconomic condition, and uncertainty derived from the difference in global circulation models is the smallest in the framework of this study.