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Abstract Background Complications following kidney transplantation elevate the risks of readmission and mortality. The aim of this study was to assess the association between the age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index (ACCI) and postoperative complications among kidney transplant (KT) recipients. Methods Between January 2015 and March 2021, a study involving 886 kidney transplant recipients at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University was conducted. Postoperative complications were defined by the Clavien-Dindo Classification of Surgical Complications. Target Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) was employed to assess the association between ACCI and postoperative complications. The odds ratio (OR) was computed to determine the relationship between ACCI and postoperative complications. Subsequent interaction and stratified analyses were performed to assess the robustness of the findings. Results Out of 859 KT participants ultimately included in the study, 30.7% were documented to have encountered postoperative complications. Participants with an ACCI value exceeding 3 exhibited a notably increased risk of postoperative complications following multivariable adjustment [aOR = 1.64, 95% CI [1.21,2.21], p = 0.001]. Congestive heart failure (OR = 16.18, 95% CI [1.98–132.17], p

BackgroundSystemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) is a serious postoperative complication among older adult surgical patients that frequently develops into sepsis or even death. Notably, the incidences of SIRS and sepsis steadily increase with age. It is important to identify the risk of postoperative SIRS for older adult patients at a sufficiently early stage, which would allow preemptive individualized enhanced therapy to be conducted to improve the prognosis of older adult patients. In recent years, machine learning (ML) models have been deployed by researchers for many tasks, including disease prediction and risk stratification, exhibiting good application potential. ObjectiveWe aimed to develop and validate an individualized predictive model to identify susceptible and high-risk populations for SIRS in older adult patients to instruct appropriate early interventions. MethodsData for surgical patients aged ≥65 years from September 2015 to September 2020 in 3 independent medical centers were retrieved and analyzed. The eligible patient cohort in the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University was randomly separated into an 80% training set (2882 patients) and a 20% internal validation set (720 patients). We developed 4 ML models to predict postoperative SIRS. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), F1 score, Brier score, and calibration curve were used to evaluate the model performance. The model with the best performance was further validated in the other 2 independent data sets involving 844 and 307 cases, respectively. ResultsThe incidences of SIRS in the 3 medical centers were 24.3% (876/3602), 29.6% (250/844), and 6.5% (20/307), respectively. We identified 15 variables that were significantly associated with postoperative SIRS and used in 4 ML models to predict postoperative SIRS. A balanced cutoff between sensitivity and specificity was chosen to ensure as high a true positive as possible. The random forest classifier (RF) model showed the best overall performance to predict postoperative SIRS, with an AUC of 0.751 (95% CI 0.709-0.793), sensitivity of 0.682, specificity of 0.681, and F1 score of 0.508 in the internal validation set and higher AUCs in the external validation-1 set (0.759, 95% CI 0.723-0.795) and external validation-2 set (0.804, 95% CI 0.746-0.863). ConclusionsWe developed and validated a generalizable RF model to predict postoperative SIRS in older adult patients, enabling clinicians to screen susceptible and high-risk patients and implement early individualized interventions. An online risk calculator to make the RF model accessible to anesthesiologists and peers around the world was developed.

IntroductionPostoperative systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) is common in surgical patients especially in older patients, and the geriatric population with SIRS is more susceptible to sepsis, MODS, and even death. We aimed to develop and validate a model for predicting postoperative SIRS in older patients.MethodsPatients aged ≥65 years who underwent general anesthesia in two centers of Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University from January 2015 to September 2020 were included. The cohort was divided into training and validation cohorts. A simple nomogram was developed to predict the postoperative SIRS in the training cohort using two logistic regression models and the brute force algorithm. The discriminative performance of this model was determined by area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC). The external validity of the nomogram was assessed in the validation cohort.ResultsA total of 5,904 patients spanning from January 2015 to December 2019 were enrolled in the training cohort and 1,105 patients from January 2020 to September 2020 comprised the temporal validation cohort, in which incidence rates of postoperative SIRS were 24.6 and 20.2%, respectively. Six feature variables were identified as valuable predictors to construct the nomogram, with high AUCs (0.800 [0.787, 0.813] and 0.822 [0.790, 0.854]) and relatively balanced sensitivity (0.718 and 0.739) as well as specificity (0.718 and 0.729) in both training and validation cohorts. An online risk calculator was established for clinical application.ConclusionWe developed a patient-specific model that may assist in predicting postoperative SIRS among the aged patients.

Abstract Background The high risk of cross-infection during tracheal intubation has caused excessive occupational anxiety for anaesthesiologists amid the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Currently, there is no effective way to attenuate their anxiety in clinical practice. We found that anaesthesiologist with better protective equipment might experience decreased levels of anxiety during intubation. Methods In this study, 60 patients who underwent intubation and extubation in the operating room were enrolled, and then randomized 1:1 to either wear protective sleeves (protective sleeve group) or not (control group). Visual analogue scale (VAS) was used to measure the anxiety level of anaesthesiologists during intubation. The respiratory droplets of patients on the sleeve, and the anaesthesiologists’ perception including the patient’s oral malodour, exertion, satisfaction degree, waist discomfort and shoulder discomfort were recorded. The patients’ anxiety, oppressed feelings and hypoxia and postoperative complications were all measured and recorded. Results Compared with the control group, the anaesthesiologists in protective sleeve group achieved lower anxiety scores and better satisfaction degrees during the process of intubation and extubation (all P

Abstract Background Early prediction of acute kidney injury (AKI) after liver transplantation (LT) facilitates timely recognition and intervention. We aimed to build a risk predictor of post-LT AKI via supervised machine learning and visualize the mechanism driving within to assist clinical decision-making. Methods Data of 894 cases that underwent liver transplantation from January 2015 to September 2019 were collected, covering demographics, donor characteristics, etiology, peri-operative laboratory results, co-morbidities and medications. The primary outcome was new-onset AKI after LT according to Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes guidelines. Predicting performance of five classifiers including logistic regression, support vector machine, random forest, gradient boosting machine (GBM) and adaptive boosting were respectively evaluated by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, F1-score, sensitivity and specificity. Model with the best performance was validated in an independent dataset involving 195 adult LT cases from October 2019 to March 2021. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method was applied to evaluate feature importance and explain the predictions made by ML algorithms. Results 430 AKI cases (55.1%) were diagnosed out of 780 included cases. The GBM model achieved the highest AUC (0.76, CI 0.70 to 0.82), F1-score (0.73, CI 0.66 to 0.79) and sensitivity (0.74, CI 0.66 to 0.8) in the internal validation set, and a comparable AUC (0.75, CI 0.67 to 0.81) in the external validation set. High preoperative indirect bilirubin, low intraoperative urine output, long anesthesia time, low preoperative platelets, and graft steatosis graded NASH CRN 1 and above were revealed by SHAP method the top 5 important variables contributing to the diagnosis of post-LT AKI made by GBM model. Conclusions Our GBM-based predictor of post-LT AKI provides a highly interoperable tool across institutions to assist decision-making after LT. Graphic abstract