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Solar energetic particles (SEPs) can pose hazardous radiation risks to both humans in space and spacecraft electronics. Numerical modeling based on first principles offers valuable insights into SEPs, providing synthetic observables for SEPs at any time and location in space. In this work, we present a high-resolution scheme based on integral relations for Poisson brackets to solve the kinetic equation for particle acceleration and transport processes. We implement this scheme within the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), developed at the University of Michigan, to conduct a comprehensive study of solar energetic protons during the 2013 April 11 SEP event. In addition, a shock capturing tool is developed to study the coronal-mass-ejection-driven shock starting from the low solar corona. Multi-point spacecraft observations, including SOHO/ERNE, SDO/AIA, GOES and ACE at Earth, and STEREO-A/B, are used for model-data comparison and validation. New synthetic observables such as white-light images, shock geometry and properties, as well as SEP intensity-time profiles and spectra provide insights for SEP studies. The influences of the mean free path on SEP intensity-time profiles and spectra are also discussed. The results demonstrate: (1) the successful implementation of the Poisson bracket scheme with a self-consistent particle tracker within the SWMF, (2) the capability of capturing the time-evolving shock surface in the SWMF, and (3) the complexity of the mean free path impacts on SEPs. Overall, this study contributes to both scientific research and operational objectives by advancing our understanding of particle behaviors and showing the readiness for more accurate SEP predictions., Comment: 51 pages, 15 figures, 2 tables

Simulations have played a critical role in the advancement of our knowledge of magnetic reconnection. However, due to the inherently multiscale nature of reconnection, it is impossible to simulate all physics at all scales. For this reason, a wide range of simulation methods have been crafted to study particular aspects and consequences of magnetic reconnection. This chapter reviews many of these methods, laying out critical assumptions, numerical techniques, and giving examples of scientific results. Plasma models described include magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), Hall MHD, Hybrid, kinetic particle-in-cell (PIC), kinetic Vlasov, Fluid models with embedded PIC, Fluid models with direct feedback from energetic populations, and the Rice Convection Model (RCM)., Comment: Chapter 5.2 of ISSI Book on Magnetic Reconnection, submitted to Space Science Reviews

The late-time behaviour of the solutions of the Fackerell-Ipser equation (which is a wave equation for the spin-zero component of the electromagnetic field strength tensor) on the closure of the domain of outer communication of sub-extremal Kerr spacetime is studied numerically. Within the Kerr family, the case of Schwarzschild background is also considered. Horizon-penetrating compactified hyperboloidal coordinates are used, which allow the behaviour of the solutions to be observed at the event horizon and at future null infinity as well. For the initial data, pure multipole configurations that have compact support and are either stationary or non-stationary are taken. It is found that with such initial data the solutions of the Fackerell-Ipser equation converge at late times either to a known static solution (up to a constant factor) or to zero. As the limit is approached, the solutions exhibit a quasinormal ringdown and finally a power-law decay. The exponents characterizing the power-law decay of the spherical harmonic components of the field variable are extracted from the numerical data for various values of the parameters of the initial data, and based on the results a proposal for a Price's law relevant to the Fackerell-Ipser equation is made. Certain conserved energy and angular momentum currents are used to verify the numerical implementation of the underlying mathematical model. In the construction of these currents a discrete symmetry of the Fackerell-Ipser equation, which is the product of an equatorial reflection and a complex conjugation, is also taken into account., Comment: 29 pages, LaTeX, minor changes

The charge exchange between the interstellar medium (ISM) and the solar wind plasma is crucial for determining the structures of the heliosphere. Since both the neutral-ion and neutral-neutral collision mean free paths are either comparable to or larger than the size of the heliosphere, the neutral phase space distribution can deviate far away from the Maxwellian distribution. A kinetic description for the neutrals is crucial for accurately modeling the heliosphere. It is computationally challenging to run three-dimensional (3D) time-dependent kinetic simulations due to the large number of macro-particles. In this paper, we present the new highly efficient SHIELD-2 model with a kinetic model of neutrals and a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model for the ions and electrons. To improve the simulation efficiency, we implement adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) and particle splitting and merging algorithms for the neutral particles to reduce the particle number that is required for an accurate simulation. We present several tests to verify and demonstrate the capabilities of the model.

The interaction between a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) and a comet has been observed several times by in-situ observations from the Rosetta Plasma Consortium (RPC), which is designed to investigate the cometary magnetosphere of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (CG). Goetz et al. (2019) reported a magnetic field of up to 300 nT measured in the inner coma, which is among the largest interplanetary magnetic fields observed in the solar system. They suggested the large magnetic field observations in the inner coma come from magnetic field pile-up regions, which are generated by the interaction between a CME and/or corotating interaction region and the cometary magnetosphere. However, the detailed interaction between a CME and the cometary magnetosphere of comet CG in the inner coma has not been investigated by numerical simulations yet. In this manuscript, we will use a numerical model to simulate the interaction between comet CG and a Halloween class CME and investigate its magnetospheric response to the CME. We find that the plasma structures change significantly during the CME event, and the maximum value of the magnetic field strength is more than 500nT close to the nucleus. Virtual satellites at similar distances as Rosetta show that the magnetic field strength can be as large as 250nT, which is slightly less than what Goetz et al. (2019) reported., Comment: 19 pages, 5 figures, submitted to ApJ

A potential field solution is widely used to extrapolate the coronal magnetic field above the Sun's surface to a certain height. This model applies the current-free approximation and assumes that the magnetic field is entirely radial beyond the source surface height, which is defined as the radial distance from the center of the Sun. Even though the source surface is commonly specified at 2.5 Rs (solar radii), previous studies have suggested that this value is not optimal in all cases. In this study, we propose a novel approach to specify the source surface height, by comparing the areas of the open magnetic field regions from the potential field solution with predictions made by a magnetohydrodynamics model, in our case the Alfven Wave Solar atmosphere Model. We find that the adjusted source surface height is significantly less than 2.5 Rs near solar minimum, and slightly larger than 2.5 Rs near solar maximum. We also report that the adjusted source surface height can provide a better open flux agreement with the observations near the solar minimum, while the comparison near the solar maximum is slightly worse., Comment: 15 pages, 5 figures, 1 table, submitted ApjL

In a previous study, Huang et al. (2023) used the Alfven Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM), one of the widely used solar wind models in the community, driven by ADAPT-GONG magnetograms to simulate the solar wind in the last solar cycle and found that the optimal Poynting flux parameter can be estimated from either the open field area or the average unsigned radial component of the magnetic field in the open field regions. It was also found that the average energy deposition rate (Poynting flux) in the open field regions is approximately constant. In the current study, we expand the previous work by using GONG magnetograms to simulate the solar wind for the same Carrington rotations and determine if the results are similar to the ones obtained with ADAPT-GONG magnetograms. Our results indicate that similar correlations can be obtained from the GONG maps. Moreover, we report that ADAPT-GONG magnetograms can consistently provide better comparisons with 1 AU solar wind observations than GONG magnetograms, based on the best simulations selected by the minimum of the average curve distance for the solar wind speed and density., Comment: 17 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables, submitted to ApJ

Gaussian Processes (GP) have become popular machine-learning methods for kernel-based learning on datasets with complicated covariance structures. In this paper, we present a novel extension to the GP framework using a contaminated normal likelihood function to better account for heteroscedastic variance and outlier noise. We propose a scalable inference algorithm based on the Sparse Variational Gaussian Process (SVGP) method for fitting sparse Gaussian process regression models with contaminated normal noise on large datasets. We examine an application to geomagnetic ground perturbations, where the state-of-the-art prediction model is based on neural networks. We show that our approach yields shorter prediction intervals for similar coverage and accuracy when compared to an artificial dense neural network baseline.

Parker Solar Probe observations reveal that the near-Sun space is almost filled with magnetic switchbacks (``switchbacks'' hereinafter), which may be a major contributor to the heating and acceleration of solar wind. Here, for the first time, we develop an analytic model of an axisymmetric switchback with uniform magnetic field strength. In this model, three parameters control the geometry of the switchback: height (length along the background magnetic field), width (thickness along radial direction perpendicular to the background field), and the radial distance from the center of switchback to the central axis, which is a proxy of the size of the switchback along the third dimension. We carry out three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations to investigate the dynamic evolution of the switchback. Comparing simulations conducted with compressible and incompressible codes, we verify that compressibility, i.e. parametric decay instability, is necessary for destabilizing the switchback. Our simulations also reveal that the geometry of the switchback significantly affects how fast the switchback destabilizes. The most stable switchbacks are 2D-like (planar) structures with large aspect ratios (length to width), consistent with the observations. We show that when plasma beta ($\beta$) is smaller than one, the switchback is more stable as $\beta$ increases. However, when $\beta$ is greater than one, the switchback becomes very unstable as the pattern of the growing compressive fluctuations changes. Our results may explain some of the observational features of switchbacks, including the large aspect ratios and nearly constant occurrence rates in the inner heliosphere.

In this paper, we demonstrate the applicability of the data-driven and self-consistent solar energetic particle model, Solar-wind with FIeld-lines and Energetic-particles (SOFIE), to simulate acceleration and transport processes of solar energetic particles. SOFIE model is built upon the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) developed at the University of Michigan. In SOFIE, the background solar wind plasma in the solar corona and interplanetary space is calculated by the Aflv\'en Wave Solar-atmosphere Model(-Realtime) (AWSoM-R) driven by the near-real-time hourly updated Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) solar magnetograms. In the background solar wind, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are launched by placing an imbalanced magnetic flux rope on top of the parent active region, using the Eruptive Event Generator using Gibson-Low model (EEGGL). The acceleration and transport processes are modeled by the Multiple-Field-Line Advection Model for Particle Acceleration (M-FLAMPA). In this work, nine solar energetic particle events (Solar Heliospheric and INterplanetary Environment (SHINE) challenge/campaign events) are modeled. The three modules in SOFIE are validated and evaluated by comparing with observations, including the steady-state background solar wind properties, the white-light image of the CME, and the flux of solar energetic protons, at energies of > 10 MeV.

Magnetic switchbacks are rapid high amplitude reversals of the radial magnetic field in the solar wind that do not involve a heliospheric current sheet crossing. First seen sporadically in the seventies in Mariner and Helios data, switchbacks were later observed by the Ulysses spacecraft beyond 1 au and have been recently identified as a typical component of solar wind fluctuations in the inner heliosphere by the Parker Solar Probe spacecraft. Here we provide a simple yet predictive theory for the formation of these magnetic reversals: the switchbacks are produced by the shear of circularly polarized Alfv\'en waves by a transversely varying radial wave propagation velocity. We provide an analytic expression for the magnetic field variation, establish the necessary and sufficient conditions and show that the mechanism works in a realistic solar wind scenario., Comment: Submitted to Nature

Collisionless magnetic reconnection typically requires kinetic treatments that are, in general, computationally expensive compared to fluid-based models. In this study, we use the magnetohydrodynamics with adaptively embedded particle-in-cell (MHD-AEPIC) model to study the interaction of two magnetic flux ropes. This innovative model embeds one or more adaptive PIC regions into a global MHD simulation domain such that the kinetic treatment is only applied in regions where kinetic physics is prominent. We compare the simulation results among three cases: 1) MHD with adaptively embedded PIC regions, 2) MHD with statically (or fixed) embedded PIC regions, and 3) a full PIC simulation. The comparison yields good agreement when analyzing their reconnection rates and magnetic island separations, as well as the ion pressure tensor elements and ion agyrotropy. In order to reach a good agreement among the three cases, large adaptive PIC regions are needed within the MHD domain, which indicates that the magnetic island coalescence problem is highly kinetic in nature where the coupling between the macro-scale MHD and micro-scale kinetic physics is important., Comment: 9 pages, 10 figures

We explore model performance for the Alfven Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) with near-real-time (NRT) synoptic maps of the photospheric vector magnetic field. These maps, produced by assimilating data from the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), use a different method developed at the National Solar Observatory (NSO) to provide a near contemporaneous source of data to drive numerical models. Here, we apply these NSO-HMI-NRT maps to simulate three Carrington rotations (CRs): 2107-2108 (centered on 2011/03/07 20:12 CME event), 2123 (integer CR) and 2218--2219 (centered on 2019/07/2 solar eclipse), which together cover a wide range of activity level for solar cycle 24. We show simulation results, which reproduce both extreme ultraviolet emission (EUV) from the low corona while simultaneously matching in situ observations at 1 au as well as quantify the total unsigned open magnetic flux from these maps.

We analyse a generalisation of the Galam model of binary opinion dynamics in which iterative discussions take place in local groups of individuals and study the effects of random deviations from the group majority. The probability of a deviation or flip depends on the magnitude of the majority. Depending on the values of the flip parameters which give the probability of a deviation, the model shows a wide variety of behaviour. We are interested in the characteristics of the model when the flip parameters are themselves randomly selected, following some probability distribution. Examples of these characteristics are whether large majorities and ties are attractors or repulsors, or the number of fixed points in the dynamics of the model. Which of the features of the model are likely to appear? Which ones are unlikely because they only present as events of low probability with respect to the distribution of the flip parameters? Answers to such questions allow us to distinguish mathematical properties which are stable under a variety of assumptions on the distribution of the flip parameters from features which are very rare and thus more of theoretical than practical interest. In this article, we present both exact numerical results for specific distributions of the flip parameters and small discussion groups and rigorous results in the form of limit theorems for large discussion groups. Small discussion groups model friend or work groups -- people that personally know each other and frequently spend time together. Large groups represent scenarios such as social media or political entities such as cities, states, or countries.

We describe our first attempt to systematically simulate the solar wind during different phases of the last solar cycle with the Alfv\'en Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) developed at the University of Michigan. Key to this study is the determination of the optimal values of one of the most important input parameters of the model, the Poynting flux parameter, which prescribes the energy flux passing through the chromospheric boundary of the model in the form of Alfv\'en wave turbulence. It is found that the optimal value of the Poynting flux parameter is correlated with the area of the open magnetic field regions with the Spearman's correlation coefficient of 0.96 and anti-correlated with the average unsigned radial component of the magnetic field with the Spearman's correlation coefficient of -0.91. Moreover, the Poynting flux in the open field regions is approximately constant in the last solar cycle, which needs to be validated with observations and can shed light on how Alfv\'en wave turbulence accelerates the solar wind during different phases of the solar cycle. Our results can also be used to set the Poynting flux parameter for real-time solar wind simulations with AWSoM., Comment: 15 pages, 1 table, 4 figures

We model voting behaviour in the multi-group setting of a two-tier voting system using sequences of de Finetti measures. Our model is defined by using the de Finetti representation of a probability measure (i.e. as a mixture of conditionally independent probability measures) describing voting behaviour. The de Finetti measure describes the interaction between voters and possible outside influences on them. We assume that for each population size there is a (potentially) different de Finetti measure, and as the population grows, the sequence of de Finetti measures converges weakly to the Dirac measure at the origin, representing a tendency toward weakening social cohesion as the population grows large. The resulting model covers a wide variety of behaviour, ranging from independent voting in the limit under fast convergence, a critical convergence speed with its own pattern of behaviour, to a subcritical convergence speed which yields a model in line with empirical evidence of real-world voting data, contrary to previous probabilistic models used in the study of voting. These models can be used, e.g., to study the problem of optimal voting weights in two-tier voting systems.

This paper surveys the theory of multiple packings and coverings. The study of multiple arrangements started in the 60s of the last century, and it was restricted mostly to lattice arrangements on the plane or of general arrangements of balls. We emphasize two new topics which were intensively investigated recently: decomposition of multiple coverings into simple coverings and characterization of multiple tilings.