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1. The IPCC’s reductive Common Era temperature history

Author

Esper, Jan, Smerdon, Jason E., Anchukaitis, Kevin J., Allen, Kathryn, Cook, Edward R., D’Arrigo, Rosanne, Guillet, Sébastien, Ljungqvist, Fredrik C., Reinig, Frederick, Schneider, Lea, Sigl, Michael, Stoffel, Markus, Trnka, Mirek, Wilson, Rob, and Büntgen, Ulf

Published
2024
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6. Observed and expected changes in wildfire-conducive weather and fire events in peri-urban zones and key nature reserves of the Czech Republic

Author

Trnka, Mirek, Balek, Jan, Možný, Martin, Cienciala, Emil, Čermák, Petr, Semerádová, Daniela, Jurečka, František, Hlavinka, Petr, Štěpánek, Petr, Farda, Aleš, Skalák, Petr, Beranová, Jana, Chuchma, Filip, Zahradníček, Pavel, Janouš, Dalibor, Žalud, Zdeněk, Dubrovský, Martin, Kindlmann, Pavel, Křenová, Zdeňka, Fischer, Milan, Hruška, Jakub, and Brázdil, Rudolf

Published
2020

8. Recent summer warming over the western Mediterranean region is unprecedented since medieval times

Author

Czech Science Foundation, European Research Council, Büntgen, U., Reinig, Frederick, Verstege, Anne, Piermattei, Alma, Kunz, Marcel, Krusic, Paul, Slavin, Philip, Stepanek, Petr, Torbenson, Max, Martínez del Castillo, Edurne, Arosio, Tito, Kirdyanov, Alexander, Oppenheimer, Clive, Trnka, Mirek, Palosse, Audrey, Bebchuk, Tatiana, Camarero, Jesús Julio, Esper, Jan, Czech Science Foundation, European Research Council, Büntgen, U., Reinig, Frederick, Verstege, Anne, Piermattei, Alma, Kunz, Marcel, Krusic, Paul, Slavin, Philip, Stepanek, Petr, Torbenson, Max, Martínez del Castillo, Edurne, Arosio, Tito, Kirdyanov, Alexander, Oppenheimer, Clive, Trnka, Mirek, Palosse, Audrey, Bebchuk, Tatiana, Camarero, Jesús Julio, and Esper, Jan

Abstract

Contextualising anthropogenic warming and investigating linkages between past climate variability and human history require high-resolution temperature reconstructions that extend before the period of instrumental measurements. Here, we present maximum latewood density (MXD) measurements of 534 living and relict Pinus uncinata trees from undisturbed upper treeline ecotones in the Spanish central Pyrenees. Spanning the period 1119–2020 CE continuously, our new MXD composite chronology correlates significantly with gridded May–September mean temperatures over the western Mediterranean region (r = 0.76; p ≤ 0.001; 1950–2020 CE). Based on an integrative ensemble approach, our reconstruction reveals unprecedented summer warming since 2003 CE. The coldest and warmest reconstructed temperature anomalies are −3.4 (±1.4) °C in 1258 and 2.6 (±2.2) °C in 2017 (relative to 1961–90). Abrupt summer cooling of −1.5 (±1.0) °C was found after 20 large volcanic eruptions since medieval times. Comparison of our summer temperature reconstruction with newly compiled historical evidence from the Iberian Peninsula suggests a lack of military conflict during or following exceptionally hot or cold summers, as well as a general tendency towards less warfare and more stable wheat prices during warmer periods. Our study demonstrates the importance of updating and refining annually resolved and absolutely dated climate reconstructions to place recent trends and extremes of anthropogenic warming in a long-term context of natural temperature variability, and to better understand how past climate and environmental changes affected ecological and societal systems.

Published
2024

10. Decline in climate resilience of European wheat

Author

Kahiluoto, Helena, Kaseva, Janne, Balek, Jan, Olesen, Jørgen E., Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita, Gobin, Anne, Kersebaum, Kurt Christian, Takáč, Jozef, Ruget, Francoise, Ferrise, Roberto, Bezak, Pavol, Capellades, Gemma, Dibari, Camilla, Mäkinen, Hanna, Nendel, Claas, Ventrella, Domenico, Rodríguez, Alfredo, Bindi, Marco, and Trnka, Mirek

Published
2019

11. Recent summer warming over the western Mediterranean region is unprecedented since medieval times

Author

Büntgen, Ulf, primary, Reinig, Frederick, additional, Verstege, Anne, additional, Piermattei, Alma, additional, Kunz, Marcel, additional, Krusic, Paul, additional, Slavin, Philip, additional, Štěpánek, Petr, additional, Torbenson, Max, additional, del Castillo, Edurne Martinez, additional, Arosio, Tito, additional, Kirdyanov, Alexander, additional, Oppenheimer, Clive, additional, Trnka, Mirek, additional, Palosse, Audrey, additional, Bebchuk, Tatiana, additional, Camarero, J. Julio, additional, and Esper, Jan, additional

Published
2023
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15. Impact of climate change on the water balance of the Thaya basin

Author

Parajka, Juraj, primary, Vizina, Adam, additional, Komma, Jürgen, additional, Valent, Peter, additional, Štepánek, Petr, additional, Haslinger, Klaus, additional, Schellander-Gorgas, Theresa, additional, Viskot, Marek, additional, Fischer, Milan, additional, Froschauer, Walter, additional, Trnka, Mirek, additional, and Blöschl, Günter, additional

Published
2023
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16. Lessons from the 2018-2019 European droughts : a collective need for unifying drought risk management

Author

Blauhut, Veit, Stoelzle, Michael, Ahopelto, Lauri, Brunner, Manuela I., Teutschbein, Claudia, Wendt, Doris E., Akstinas, Vytautas, Bakke, Sigrid J., Barker, Lucy J., Bartošová, Lenka, Briede, Agrita, Cammalleri, Carmelo, Kalin, Ksenija Cindrić, De Stefano, Lucia, Fendeková, Miriam, Finger, David C., Huysmans, Marijke, Ivanov, Mirjana, Jaagus, Jaak, Jakubínský, JiÅ™í, Krakovska, Svitlana, Laaha, Gregor, Lakatos, Monika, Manevski, Kiril, Neumann Andersen, Mathias, Nikolova, Nina, Osuch, Marzena, Van Oel, Pieter, Radeva, Kalina, Romanowicz, Renata J., Toth, Elena, Trnka, Mirek, Urošev, Marko, Urquijo Reguera, Julia, Sauquet, Eric, Stevkov, Aleksandra, Tallaksen, Lena M., Trofimova, Iryna, Van Loon, Anne F., Van Vliet, Michelle T.H., Vidal, Jean Philippe, Wanders, Niko, Werner, Micha, Willems, Patrick, Zivković, Nenad, Hydrologie, Landdegradatie en aardobservatie, Blauhut V., Stoelzle M., Ahopelto L., Brunner M.I., Teutschbein C., Wendt D.E., Akstinas V., Bakke S.J., Barker L.J., Bartosova L., Briede A., Cammalleri C., Kalin K.C., De Stefano L., Fendekova M., Finger D.C., Huysmans M., Ivanov M., Jaagus J., Jakubinsky J., Krakovska S., Laaha G., Lakatos M., Manevski K., Neumann Andersen M., Nikolova N., Osuch M., Van Oel P., Radeva K., Romanowicz R.J., Toth E., Trnka M., Urosev M., Urquijo Reguera J., Sauquet E., Stevkov A., Tallaksen L.M., Trofimova I., Van Loon A.F., Van Vliet M.T.H., Vidal J.-P., Wanders N., Werner M., Willems P., Zivkovic N., University of Freiburg, Department of Built Environment, Uppsala University, University of Birmingham, Lithuanian Energy Institute, University of Oslo, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Czech Academy of Sciences, University of Latvia, European Commission Joint Research Centre Institute, Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Complutense University, Comenius University in Bratislava, Reykjavík University, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Institute of Hydrometeorology and Seismology of Montenegro, University of Tartu, Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Hungarian Meteorological Service, Aarhus University, Sofia University St. Kliment Ohridski, Institute of Geophysics of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Universita di Bologna, Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Technical University of Madrid, INRAE, National Hydrometeorological Service, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Utrecht University, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, KU Leuven, University of Belgrade, Aalto-yliopisto, Aalto University, Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Water and Climate Risk, Hydrologie, and Landdegradatie en aardobservatie

Subjects
IMPACTS, drought, risk, management, strategy, stakeholders, Europe, Hidrología, media_common.quotation_subject, WATER-RESOURCES, CIRCULATION, Vulnerability, Earth and Planetary Sciences(all), Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser, METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT, EVENTS, Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources, Short summary: Recent drought events caused enormous damage in Europe. We therefore questioned the existence and effect of current drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how drought is perceived by relevant stakeholders. Over 700 participants from 28 European countries provided insights into drought hazard and impact perception and current management strategies. The study concludes with an urgent need to collectively combat drought risk via a European macro-level drought governance approach, 11. Sustainability, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Life Science, Geosciences, Multidisciplinary, Environmental planning, media_common, Science & Technology, WIMEK, Corporate governance, Geology, Directive, Hazard, 6. Clean water, Water Resources Management, Water resources, Geography, Harm, 13. Climate action, Physical Sciences, Water Resources, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Water Systems and Global Change, Psychological resilience, Hydrology, SDG 6 - Clean Water and Sanitation, Diversity (business)
Abstract

Funding Information: This open-access publication was funded by the University of Freiburg. Funding Information: Financial support. The project is supported by the Wassernetzwerk Baden-Württemberg (Water Research Network of the State Baden-Württemberg), which is funded by the Ministerium für Wissenschaft, Forschung und Kunst Baden-Württemberg (Ministry of Science, Research and the Arts of the State Baden-Württemberg) (grant no. AZ. 7532.21/2.1.6) and Maa-ja vesitekniikan tuki ry foundation. Doris E. Wendt acknowledges her support as part of the NERC-funded Groundwater Drought Initiative (NE/R004994/1). Lucy J. Barker was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/R016429/1) as part of the UK-SCAPE programme delivering National Capability. The contributions of Mirek Trnka, Lenka Bartošová, and Jaak Jaagus have been supported by SustES – Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000797). Publisher Copyright: © 2022 Veit Blauhut et al. Drought events and their impacts vary spatially and temporally due to diverse pedo-climatic and hydrologic conditions, as well as variations in exposure and vulnerability, such as demographics and response actions. While hazard severity and frequency of past drought events have been studied in detail, little is known about the effect of drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how the hazard is perceived by relevant stakeholders. In a continental study, we characterised and assessed the impacts and the perceptions of two recent drought events (2018 and 2019) in Europe and examined the relationship between management strategies and drought perception, hazard, and impact. The study was based on a pan-European survey involving national representatives from 28 countries and relevant stakeholders responding to a standard questionnaire. The survey focused on collecting information on stakeholders' perceptions of drought, impacts on water resources and beyond, water availability, and current drought management strategies on national and regional scales. The survey results were compared with the actual drought hazard information registered by the European Drought Observatory (EDO) for 2018 and 2019. The results highlighted high diversity in drought perception across different countries and in values of the implemented drought management strategies to alleviate impacts by increasing national and sub-national awareness and resilience. The study identifies an urgent need to further reduce drought impacts by constructing and implementing a European macro-level drought governance approach, such as a directive, which would strengthen national drought management and mitigate damage to human and natural assets.

Published
2022
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17. Global wood anatomical perspective on the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA) in the mid-6th century CE

Author

Büntgen, Ulf, primary, Crivellaro, Alan, additional, Arseneault, Dominique, additional, Baillie, Mike, additional, Barclay, David, additional, Bernabei, Mauro, additional, Bontadi, Jarno, additional, Boswijk, Gretel, additional, Brown, David, additional, Christie, Duncan A., additional, Churakova, Olga V., additional, Cook, Edward R., additional, D’Arrigo, Rosanne, additional, Davi, Nicole, additional, Esper, Jan, additional, Fonti, Patrick, additional, Greaves, Ciara, additional, Hantemirov, Rashit M., additional, Hughes, Malcolm K., additional, Kirdyanov, Alexander V., additional, Krusic, Paul J., additional, Le Quesne, Carlos, additional, Ljungqvist, Fredrik C., additional, McCormick, Michael, additional, Myglan, Vladimir S., additional, Nicolussi, Kurt, additional, Oppenheimer, Clive, additional, Palmer, Jonathan, additional, Qin, Chun, additional, Reinig, Frederick, additional, Salzer, Matthew, additional, Stoffel, Markus, additional, Torbenson, Max, additional, Trnka, Mirek, additional, Villalba, Ricardo, additional, Wiesenberg, Nick, additional, Wiles, Greg, additional, Yang, Bao, additional, and Piermattei, Alma, additional

Published
2022
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19. Determining Factors Affecting the Soil Water Content and Yield of Selected Crops in a Field Experiment with a Rainout Shelter and a Control Plot in the Czech Republic.

Author

Thaler, Sabina, Pohankova, Eva, Eitzinger, Josef, Hlavinka, Petr, Orság, Matěj, Lukas, Vojtěch, Brtnický, Martin, Růžek, Pavel, Šimečková, Jana, Ghisi, Tomáš, Bohuslav, Jakub, Klem, Karel, and Trnka, Mirek

Subjects
CROP yields, CROP rotation, LEAF area index, SPRING, SOIL moisture, AGRICULTURAL climatology
Abstract

To investigate the different responses of crops to drought stress under field conditions of Central European Climate for selected crop rotations, a field experiment was conducted at a test site in the Czech Republic from 2014 to 2021. Depending on the crop, rainout shelters were placed in late spring and early summer to study the effects of drought in the final stages of crop development. Due to these rainout shelters and the associated lower water availability for the crops during the summer, a reduction in leaf area index, biomass and yield was observed. For example, a yield decrease of more than 30% was observed for spring barley, winter rape and winter wheat compared to conditions without rainout shelters. The reduction was 25% and 18% for winter rye and silage maize, respectively, under rainout shelters. Soil moisture played a significant role in yield, where a predictive model based on monthly soil moisture explained up to 79% (winter rape) of the yield variance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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20. Priority for climate adaptation measures in European crop production systems

Author

Zhao, Jin, primary, Bindi, Marco, additional, Eitzinger, Josef, additional, Ferrise, Roberto, additional, Gaile, Zinta, additional, Gobin, Anne, additional, Holzkämper, Annelie, additional, Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian, additional, Kozyra, Jerzy, additional, Kriaučiūnienė, Zita, additional, Loit, Evelin, additional, Nejedlik, Pavol, additional, Nendel, Claas, additional, Niinemets, Ülo, additional, Palosuo, Taru, additional, Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo, additional, Potopová, Vera, additional, Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita, additional, Reidsma, Pytrik, additional, Rijk, Bert, additional, Trnka, Mirek, additional, van Ittersum, Martin K., additional, and Olesen, Jørgen E., additional

Published
2022
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21. Lessons from the 2018-2019 European droughts: a collective need for unifying drought risk management

Author

Hydrologie, Landdegradatie en aardobservatie, Blauhut, Veit, Stoelzle, Michael, Ahopelto, Lauri, Brunner, Manuela I., Teutschbein, Claudia, Wendt, Doris E., Akstinas, Vytautas, Bakke, Sigrid J., Barker, Lucy J., Bartošová, Lenka, Briede, Agrita, Cammalleri, Carmelo, Kalin, Ksenija Cindrić, De Stefano, Lucia, Fendeková, Miriam, Finger, David C., Huysmans, Marijke, Ivanov, Mirjana, Jaagus, Jaak, Jakubínský, JiÅ™í, Krakovska, Svitlana, Laaha, Gregor, Lakatos, Monika, Manevski, Kiril, Neumann Andersen, Mathias, Nikolova, Nina, Osuch, Marzena, Van Oel, Pieter, Radeva, Kalina, Romanowicz, Renata J., Toth, Elena, Trnka, Mirek, Urošev, Marko, Urquijo Reguera, Julia, Sauquet, Eric, Stevkov, Aleksandra, Tallaksen, Lena M., Trofimova, Iryna, Van Loon, Anne F., Van Vliet, Michelle T.H., Vidal, Jean Philippe, Wanders, Niko, Werner, Micha, Willems, Patrick, Zivković, Nenad, Hydrologie, Landdegradatie en aardobservatie, Blauhut, Veit, Stoelzle, Michael, Ahopelto, Lauri, Brunner, Manuela I., Teutschbein, Claudia, Wendt, Doris E., Akstinas, Vytautas, Bakke, Sigrid J., Barker, Lucy J., Bartošová, Lenka, Briede, Agrita, Cammalleri, Carmelo, Kalin, Ksenija Cindrić, De Stefano, Lucia, Fendeková, Miriam, Finger, David C., Huysmans, Marijke, Ivanov, Mirjana, Jaagus, Jaak, Jakubínský, JiÅ™í, Krakovska, Svitlana, Laaha, Gregor, Lakatos, Monika, Manevski, Kiril, Neumann Andersen, Mathias, Nikolova, Nina, Osuch, Marzena, Van Oel, Pieter, Radeva, Kalina, Romanowicz, Renata J., Toth, Elena, Trnka, Mirek, Urošev, Marko, Urquijo Reguera, Julia, Sauquet, Eric, Stevkov, Aleksandra, Tallaksen, Lena M., Trofimova, Iryna, Van Loon, Anne F., Van Vliet, Michelle T.H., Vidal, Jean Philippe, Wanders, Niko, Werner, Micha, Willems, Patrick, and Zivković, Nenad

Published
2022

22. Global wood anatomical perspective on the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA) in the mid-6th century CE

Author

Büntgen, Ulf, Crivellaro, Alan, Arseneault, Dominique, Baillie, Mike, Barclay, David, Bernabei, Mauro, Bontadi, Jarno, Boswijk, Gretel, Brown, David, Christie, Duncan A., Churakova, Olga V., Cook, Edward R., D'Arrigo, Rosanne, Davi, Nicole, Esper, Jan, Fonti, Patrick, Greaves, Ciara, Hantemirov, Rashit M., Hughes, Malcolm K., Kirdyanov, Alexander V., Krusic, Paul J., Quesne, Carlos Le, Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik, McCormick, Michael, Myglan, Vladimir S., Nicolussi, Kurt, Oppenheimer, Clive, Palmer, Jonathan, Qin, Chun, Reinig, Frederick, Salzer, Matthew, Stoffel, Markus, Torbenson, Max, Trnka, Mirek, Villalba, Ricardo, Wiesenberg, Nick, Wiles, Greg, Yang, Bao, Piermattei, Alma, Büntgen, Ulf, Crivellaro, Alan, Arseneault, Dominique, Baillie, Mike, Barclay, David, Bernabei, Mauro, Bontadi, Jarno, Boswijk, Gretel, Brown, David, Christie, Duncan A., Churakova, Olga V., Cook, Edward R., D'Arrigo, Rosanne, Davi, Nicole, Esper, Jan, Fonti, Patrick, Greaves, Ciara, Hantemirov, Rashit M., Hughes, Malcolm K., Kirdyanov, Alexander V., Krusic, Paul J., Quesne, Carlos Le, Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik, McCormick, Michael, Myglan, Vladimir S., Nicolussi, Kurt, Oppenheimer, Clive, Palmer, Jonathan, Qin, Chun, Reinig, Frederick, Salzer, Matthew, Stoffel, Markus, Torbenson, Max, Trnka, Mirek, Villalba, Ricardo, Wiesenberg, Nick, Wiles, Greg, Yang, Bao, and Piermattei, Alma

Abstract

Linked to major volcanic eruptions around 536 and 540 CE, the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age has been described as the coldest period of the past two millennia. The exact timing and spatial extent of this exceptional cold phase are, however, still under debate because of the limited resolution and geographical distribution of the available proxy archives. Here, we use 106 wood anatomical thin sections from 23 forest sites and 20 tree species in both hemispheres to search for cell-level fingerprints of ephemeral summer cooling between 530 and 550 CE. After cross-dating and double-staining, we identified 89 Blue Rings (lack of cell wall lignification), nine Frost Rings (cell deformation and collapse), and 93 Light Rings (reduced cell wall thickening) in the Northern Hemisphere. Our network reveals evidence for the strongest temperature depression between mid-July and early-August 536 CE across North America and Eurasia, whereas more localised cold spells occurred in the summers of 532, 540–43, and 548 CE. The lack of anatomical signatures in the austral trees suggests limited incursion of stratospheric volcanic aerosol into the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics, that any forcing was mitigated by atmosphere-ocean dynamical responses and/or concentrated outside the growing season, or a combination of factors. Our findings demonstrate the advantage of wood anatomical investigations over traditional dendrochronological measurements, provide a benchmark for Earth system models, support cross-disciplinary studies into the entanglements of climate and history, and question the relevance of global climate averages.

Published
2022
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24. Supplementary material to "Lessons from the 2018–2019 European droughts: A collective need for unifying drought risk management"

Author

Blauhut, Veit, primary, Stoelzle, Michael, additional, Ahopelto, Lauri, additional, Brunner, Manuela I., additional, Teutschbein, Claudia, additional, Wendt, Doris E., additional, Akstinas, Vytautas, additional, Bakke, Sigrid J., additional, Barker, Lucy J., additional, Bartošová, Lenka, additional, Briede, Agrita, additional, Cammalleri, Carmelo, additional, De Stefano, Lucia, additional, Fendeková, Miriam, additional, Finger, David C., additional, Huysmans, Marijke, additional, Ivanov, Mirjana, additional, Jaagus, Jaak, additional, Jakubínský, Jiří, additional, Kalin, Ksenija Cindrić, additional, Krakovska, Svitlana, additional, Laaha, Gregor, additional, Lakatos, Monika, additional, Manevski, Kiril, additional, Neumann Andersen, Mathias, additional, Nikolova, Nina, additional, Osuch, Marzena, additional, van Oel, Pieter, additional, Radeva, Kalina, additional, Romanowicz, Renata J., additional, Toth, Elena, additional, Trnka, Mirek, additional, Urošev, Marko, additional, Urquijo Reguera, Julia, additional, Sauquet, Eric, additional, Stevkova, Silvana, additional, Tallaksen, Lena M., additional, Trofimova, Iryna, additional, van Vliet, Michelle T. H., additional, Vidal, Jean-Philippe, additional, Wanders, Niko, additional, Werner, Micha, additional, Willems, Patrick, additional, and Živković, Nenad, additional

Published
2021
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25. Lessons from the 2018–2019 European droughts: A collective need for unifying drought risk management

Author

Blauhut, Veit, primary, Stoelzle, Michael, additional, Ahopelto, Lauri, additional, Brunner, Manuela I., additional, Teutschbein, Claudia, additional, Wendt, Doris E., additional, Akstinas, Vytautas, additional, Bakke, Sigrid J., additional, Barker, Lucy J., additional, Bartošová, Lenka, additional, Briede, Agrita, additional, Cammalleri, Carmelo, additional, De Stefano, Lucia, additional, Fendeková, Miriam, additional, Finger, David C., additional, Huysmans, Marijke, additional, Ivanov, Mirjana, additional, Jaagus, Jaak, additional, Jakubínský, Jiří, additional, Kalin, Ksenija Cindrić, additional, Krakovska, Svitlana, additional, Laaha, Gregor, additional, Lakatos, Monika, additional, Manevski, Kiril, additional, Neumann Andersen, Mathias, additional, Nikolova, Nina, additional, Osuch, Marzena, additional, van Oel, Pieter, additional, Radeva, Kalina, additional, Romanowicz, Renata J., additional, Toth, Elena, additional, Trnka, Mirek, additional, Urošev, Marko, additional, Urquijo Reguera, Julia, additional, Sauquet, Eric, additional, Stevkova, Silvana, additional, Tallaksen, Lena M., additional, Trofimova, Iryna, additional, van Vliet, Michelle T. H., additional, Vidal, Jean-Philippe, additional, Wanders, Niko, additional, Werner, Micha, additional, Willems, Patrick, additional, and Živković, Nenad, additional

Published
2021
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27. Lessons from the 2018–2019 European droughts: A collective need for unifying drought risk management

Author

Blauhut, Veit, Stoelzle, Michael, Ahopelto, Lauri, Brunner, Manuela I., Teutschbein, Claudia, Wendt, Doris E., Akstinas, Vytautas, Bakke, Sigrid J., Barker, Lucy J., Bartošová, Lenka, Briede, Agrita, Cammalleri, Carmelo, De Stefano, Lucia, Fendeková, Miriam, Finger, David C., Huysmans, Marijke, Ivanov, Mirjana, Jaagus, Jaak, Jakubínský, Jiří, Kalin, Ksenija Cindrić, Krakovska, Svitlana, Laaha, Gregor, Lakatos, Monika, Manevski, Kiril, Neumann Andersen, Mathias, Nikolova, Nina, Osuch, Marzena, van Oel, Pieter, Radeva, Kalina, Romanowicz, Renata J., Toth, Elena, Trnka, Mirek, Urošev, Marko, Urquijo Reguera, Julia, Sauquet, Eric, Stevkova, Silvana, Tallaksen, Lena M., Trofimova, Iryna, van Vliet, Michelle T. H., Vidal, Jean-Philippe, Wanders, Niko, Werner, Micha, Willems, Patrick, Živković, Nenad, Blauhut, Veit, Stoelzle, Michael, Ahopelto, Lauri, Brunner, Manuela I., Teutschbein, Claudia, Wendt, Doris E., Akstinas, Vytautas, Bakke, Sigrid J., Barker, Lucy J., Bartošová, Lenka, Briede, Agrita, Cammalleri, Carmelo, De Stefano, Lucia, Fendeková, Miriam, Finger, David C., Huysmans, Marijke, Ivanov, Mirjana, Jaagus, Jaak, Jakubínský, Jiří, Kalin, Ksenija Cindrić, Krakovska, Svitlana, Laaha, Gregor, Lakatos, Monika, Manevski, Kiril, Neumann Andersen, Mathias, Nikolova, Nina, Osuch, Marzena, van Oel, Pieter, Radeva, Kalina, Romanowicz, Renata J., Toth, Elena, Trnka, Mirek, Urošev, Marko, Urquijo Reguera, Julia, Sauquet, Eric, Stevkova, Silvana, Tallaksen, Lena M., Trofimova, Iryna, van Vliet, Michelle T. H., Vidal, Jean-Philippe, Wanders, Niko, Werner, Micha, Willems, Patrick, and Živković, Nenad

Abstract

Drought events and their impacts vary spatially and temporally due to diverse pedo-climatic and hydrologic conditions, as well as variations in exposure and vulnerability, such as demographics and response actions. While hazardous severity and frequency of past drought events have been studied in detail, little is known about the effect of drought management strategies on the actual impacts, and how the hazard is perceived by relevant stakeholders for inducing action. In a continental study, we characterised and assessed the impacts and the perceptions of two recent drought events (2018 and 2019) in Europe and examined the relationship between management strategies and drought perception, hazard and impacts. The study was based on a pan-European survey involving national representatives from 28 countries and relevant stakeholders responding to a standard questionnaire. The survey focused on collecting information on stakeholders’ perceptions of drought, impacts on water resources and beyond, water availability and current drought management strategies at national and regional scales. The survey results were compared with the actual drought hazard information registered by the European Drought Observatory (EDO) for 2018 and 2019. The results highlighted high diversity in drought perceptions across different countries and in values of implemented drought management strategies to alleviate impacts by increasing national and sub-national awareness and resilience. The study concludes with an urgent need to further reduce drought impacts by constructing and implementing a European macro-level drought governance approach, such as a directive, which would strengthen national drought management and lessen harm to human and natural potentials.

Published
2021
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33. No Age Trends in Oak Stable Isotopes

Author

Büntgen, Ulf, primary, Kolář, Tomáš, additional, Rybníček, Michal, additional, Koňasová, Eva, additional, Trnka, Mirek, additional, Ač, Alexander, additional, Krusic, Paul J., additional, Esper, Jan, additional, Treydte, Kerstin, additional, Reinig, Fredrick, additional, Kirdyanov, Alexander, additional, Herzig, Franz, additional, and Urban, Otmar, additional

Published
2020
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35. Cereal yield gaps across Europe

Author

Schils, René, Olesen, Jørgen E., Kersebaum, Kurt Christian, Rijk, Bert, Oberforster, Michael, Kalyada, Valery, Khitrykau, Maksim, Gobin, Anne, Kirchev, Hristofor, Manolova, Vanya, Manolov, Ivan, Trnka, Mirek, Hlavinka, Petr, Paluoso, Taru, Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo, Jauhiainen, Lauri, Lorgeou, Josiane, Marrou, Hélène, Danalatos, Nikos, Archontoulis, Sotirios, Fodor, Nándor, Spink, John, Roggero, Pier Paolo, Bassu, Simona, Pulina, Antonio, Seehusen, Till, Uhlen, Anne Kjersti, Żyłowska, Katarzyna, Nieróbca, Anna, Kozyra, Jerzy, Silva, João Vasco, Maçãs, Benvindo Martins, Coutinho, José, Ion, Viorel, Takáč, Jozef, Mínguez, M.I., Eckersten, Henrik, Levy, Lilia, Herrera, Juan Manuel, Hiltbrunner, Jürg, Kryvobok, Oleksii, Kryvoshein, Oleksandr, Boogaard, Hendrik, de Groot, Hugo, Lesschen, Jan Peter, van Bussel, Lenny, Wolf, Joost, Zijlstra, Mink, van Loon, Marloes P., van Ittersum, Martin K., Schils, René, Olesen, Jørgen E., Kersebaum, Kurt Christian, Rijk, Bert, Oberforster, Michael, Kalyada, Valery, Khitrykau, Maksim, Gobin, Anne, Kirchev, Hristofor, Manolova, Vanya, Manolov, Ivan, Trnka, Mirek, Hlavinka, Petr, Paluoso, Taru, Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo, Jauhiainen, Lauri, Lorgeou, Josiane, Marrou, Hélène, Danalatos, Nikos, Archontoulis, Sotirios, Fodor, Nándor, Spink, John, Roggero, Pier Paolo, Bassu, Simona, Pulina, Antonio, Seehusen, Till, Uhlen, Anne Kjersti, Żyłowska, Katarzyna, Nieróbca, Anna, Kozyra, Jerzy, Silva, João Vasco, Maçãs, Benvindo Martins, Coutinho, José, Ion, Viorel, Takáč, Jozef, Mínguez, M.I., Eckersten, Henrik, Levy, Lilia, Herrera, Juan Manuel, Hiltbrunner, Jürg, Kryvobok, Oleksii, Kryvoshein, Oleksandr, Boogaard, Hendrik, de Groot, Hugo, Lesschen, Jan Peter, van Bussel, Lenny, Wolf, Joost, Zijlstra, Mink, van Loon, Marloes P., and van Ittersum, Martin K.

Abstract

Europe accounts for around 20% of the global cereal production and is a net exporter of ca. 15% of that production. Increasing global demand for cereals justifies questions as to where and by how much Europe's production can be increased to meet future global market demands, and how much additional nitrogen (N) crops would require. The latter is important as environmental concern and legislation are equally important as production aims in Europe. Here, we used a country-by-country, bottom-up approach to establish statistical estimates of actual grain yield, and compare these to modelled estimates of potential yields for either irrigated or rainfed conditions. In this way, we identified the yield gaps and the opportunities for increased cereal production for wheat, barley and maize, which represent 90% of the cereals grown in Europe. The combined mean annual yield gap of wheat, barley, maize was 239 Mt, or 42% of the yield potential. The national yield gaps ranged between 10 and 70%, with small gaps in many north-western European countries, and large gaps in eastern and south-western Europe. Yield gaps for rainfed and irrigated maize were consistently lower than those of wheat and barley. If the yield gaps of maize, wheat and barley would be reduced from 42% to 20% of potential yields, this would increase annual cereal production by 128 Mt (39%). Potential for higher cereal production exists predominantly in Eastern Europe, and half of Europe's potential increase is located in Ukraine, Romania and Poland. Unlocking the identified potential for production growth requires a substantial increase of the crop N uptake of 4.8 Mt. Across Europe, the average N uptake gaps, to achieve 80% of the yield potential, were 87, 77 and 43 kg N ha−1 for wheat, barley and maize, respectively. Emphasis on increasing the N use efficiency is necessary to minimize the need for additional N inputs. Whether yield gap reduction is desirable and feasible is a matter of balancing Europe's role

Published
2018

36. Five centuries of Southern Moravian drought variations revealed from living and historic tree rings

Author

Büntgen, Ulf, Brázdil, Rudolf, Dobrovolný, Petr, Trnka, Mirek, Kyncl, Tomáš, Büntgen, Ulf, Brázdil, Rudolf, Dobrovolný, Petr, Trnka, Mirek, and Kyncl, Tomáš

Abstract

Past, present, and projected fluctuations of the hydrological cycle, associated to anthropogenic climate change, describe a pending challenge for natural ecosystems and human civilizations. Here, we compile and analyze long meteorological records from Brno, Czech Republic and nearby tree-ring measurements of living and historic firs from Southern Moravia. This unique paleoclimatic compilation together with innovative reconstruction methods and error estimates allows regional-scale May-June drought variability to be estimated back to ad 1500. Driest and wettest conditions occurred in 1653 and 1713, respectively. The ten wettest decades are evenly distributed throughout time, whereas the driest episodes occurred in the seventeenth century and from the 1840s onward. Discussion emphasizes agreement between the new reconstruction and documentary evidence, and stresses possible sources of reconstruction uncertainty including station inhomogeneity, limited frequency preservation, reduced climate sensitivity, and large-scale constraints

Published
2018

37. Multi-model uncertainty analysis in predicting grain N for crop rotations in Europe

Author

Yin, Xiaogang, Kersebaum, Kurt Christian, Kollas, Chris, Baby, Sanmohan, Beaudoin, Nicolas, Manevski, Kiril, Palosuo, Taru, Nendel, Claas, Wu, Lianhai, Hoffmann, Munir, Hoffmann, Holger, Sharif, Behzad, Armas-Herrera, Cecilia M., Bindi, Marco, Charfeddine, Monia, Conradt, Tobias, Constantin, Julie, Ewert, Frank, Ferrise, Roberto, Gaiser, Thomas, de Cortazar-Atauri, Iñaki Garcia, Giglio, Luisa, Hlavinka, Petr, Lana, Marcos, Launay, Marie, Louarn, Gaëtan, Manderscheid, Remy, Mary, Bruno, Mirschel, Wilfried, Moriondo, Marco, Öztürk, Isik, Pacholski, Andreas, Ripoche-Wachter, Dominique, Rötter, Reimund P., Ruget, Françoise, Trnka, Mirek, Ventrella, Domenico, Weigel, Hans Joachim, Olesen, Jørgen E., Unité d'Agronomie de Laon-Reims-Mons (AGRO-LRM), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University [Aarhus], Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Natural Resources Institute Finland, Rothamsted Research, Crop Production Systems in the Tropics, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, INRES, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences, University of Florence (UNIFI), Unità di ricerca per i sistemi colturali degli ambienti caldo-aridi, Agricultural Research Council (CRA), UMR : AGroécologie, Innovations, TeRritoires, Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse, UE Agroclim (UE AGROCLIM), Global Change Research Centre (CzechGlobe), Mendel University in Brno, Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères (P3F), Thünen Institute of Biodiversity, Istituto di Biometeorologia [Firenze] (IBIMET), Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), EurochemAgro, Environnement Méditerranéen et Modélisation des Agro-Hydrosystèmes (EMMAH), Avignon Université (AU)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), FACCE MACSUR 2812ERA147/CARBIOCIAL 01LL0902M/ KULUNDA 01LL0905L /NORFASYS 268277 292944/MACSUR D.M. 24064/7303/15/ QJ1310123, Agroressources et Impacts environnementaux (AgroImpact), Natural resources institute Finland, Georg-August-University [Göttingen], Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence [Firenze] (UNIFI), AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Agroclim (AGROCLIM), and Mendel University in Brno (MENDELU)

Subjects
[SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, Irrigation, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Model calibration, Soil Science, Single Year simulation, Plant Science, 01 natural sciences, Model ensemble, Crop, continuous simulation, model ensemble, Grain N, Uncertainty analysis, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Mathematics, 2. Zero hunger, model calibration, grain n, Crop yield, Simulation modeling, Continuous simulation, Model inter-comparison, Single year simulation, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, Crop rotation, model inter-comparison, single year simulation, Tillage, Mean absolute percentage error, Agronomy, Continous simulation, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Agronomy and Crop Science, Model intercomparison
Abstract

Realistic estimation of grain nitrogen (N; N in grain yield) is crucial for assessing N management in crop rotations, but there is little information on the performance of commonly used crop models for simulating grain N. Therefore, the objectives of the study were to (1) test if continuous simulation (multi-year) performs better than single year simulation, (2) assess if calibration improves model performance at different calibration levels, and (3) investigate if a multi-model ensemble can substantially reduce uncertainty in reproducing grain N. For this purpose, 12 models were applied simulating different treatments (catch crops, CO2 concentrations, irrigation, N application, residues and tillage) in four multi-year rotation experiments in Europe to assess modelling accuracy. Seven grain and seed crops in four rotation systems in Europe were included in the study, namely winter wheat, winter barley, spring barley, spring oat, winter rye, pea and winter oilseed rape. Our results indicate that the higher level of calibration significantly increased the quality of the simulation for grain N. In addition, models performed better in predicting grain N of winter wheat, winter barley and spring barley compared to spring oat, winter rye, pea and winter oilseed rape. For each crop, the use of the ensemble mean significantly reduced the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) between simulations and observations to less than 15%, thus a multi–model ensemble can more precisely predict grain N than a random single model. Models correctly simulated the effects of enhanced N input on grain N of winter wheat and winter barley, whereas effects of tillage and irrigation were less well estimated. However, the use of continuous simulation did not improve the simulations as compared to single year simulation based on the multi-year performance, which suggests needs for further model improvements of crop rotation effects.

Published
2017
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38. Decline in climate resilience of European wheat

Author

Kahiluoto, Helena, primary, Kaseva, Janne, additional, Balek, Jan, additional, Olesen, Jørgen E., additional, Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita, additional, Gobin, Anne, additional, Kersebaum, Kurt Christian, additional, Takáč, Jozef, additional, Ruget, Francoise, additional, Ferrise, Roberto, additional, Bezak, Pavol, additional, Capellades, Gemma, additional, Dibari, Camilla, additional, Mäkinen, Hanna, additional, Nendel, Claas, additional, Ventrella, Domenico, additional, Rodríguez, Alfredo, additional, Bindi, Marco, additional, and Trnka, Mirek, additional

Published
2018
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39. The response of process-based agro-ecosystem models to within-field variability in site conditions

Author

Wallor, Evelyn, primary, Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian, additional, Ventrella, Domenico, additional, Bindi, Marco, additional, Cammarano, Davide, additional, Coucheney, Elsa, additional, Gaiser, Thomas, additional, Garofalo, Pasquale, additional, Giglio, Luisa, additional, Giola, Pietro, additional, Hoffmann, Munir P., additional, Iocola, Ileana, additional, Lana, Marcos, additional, Lewan, Elisabet, additional, Maharjan, Ganga Ram, additional, Moriondo, Marco, additional, Mula, Laura, additional, Nendel, Claas, additional, Pohankova, Eva, additional, Roggero, Pier Paolo, additional, Trnka, Mirek, additional, and Trombi, Giacomo, additional

Published
2018
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40. Cereal yield gaps across Europe

Author

Schils, René, primary, Olesen, Jørgen E., additional, Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian, additional, Rijk, Bert, additional, Oberforster, Michael, additional, Kalyada, Valery, additional, Khitrykau, Maksim, additional, Gobin, Anne, additional, Kirchev, Hristofor, additional, Manolova, Vanya, additional, Manolov, Ivan, additional, Trnka, Mirek, additional, Hlavinka, Petr, additional, Palosuo, Taru, additional, Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo, additional, Jauhiainen, Lauri, additional, Lorgeou, Josiane, additional, Marrou, Hélène, additional, Danalatos, Nikos, additional, Archontoulis, Sotirios, additional, Fodor, Nándor, additional, Spink, John, additional, Roggero, Pier Paolo, additional, Bassu, Simona, additional, Pulina, Antonio, additional, Seehusen, Till, additional, Uhlen, Anne Kjersti, additional, Żyłowska, Katarzyna, additional, Nieróbca, Anna, additional, Kozyra, Jerzy, additional, Silva, João Vasco, additional, Maçãs, Benvindo Martins, additional, Coutinho, José, additional, Ion, Viorel, additional, Takáč, Jozef, additional, Mínguez, M. Inés, additional, Eckersten, Henrik, additional, Levy, Lilia, additional, Herrera, Juan Manuel, additional, Hiltbrunner, Jürg, additional, Kryvobok, Oleksii, additional, Kryvoshein, Oleksandr, additional, Sylvester-Bradley, Roger, additional, Kindred, Daniel, additional, Topp, Cairistiona F.E., additional, Boogaard, Hendrik, additional, de Groot, Hugo, additional, Lesschen, Jan Peter, additional, van Bussel, Lenny, additional, Wolf, Joost, additional, Zijlstra, Mink, additional, van Loon, Marloes P., additional, and van Ittersum, Martin K., additional

Published
2018
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41. Variability in the water footprint of arable crop production across European regions

Author

Gobin, Anne, Kersebaum, K. Christian, Eitzinger, Josef, Trnka, Mirek, Hlavinka, Pavol, Kroes, Joop, Takac, Jozef, Ventrella, Donateli, Natali, N., Dallamarta, Anna, Orlandini, Simone, Rajala, Ari, Sainio-Peltonen, Pirjo, Saue, Triin, Saylan, Levent, Vučetić, Višnjica, Zoumides, Christos, Tarquis, A., Nejedlik, Pavol, and Kroes, Joop

Subjects
water footprint, European agriculture
Abstract

The water footprint concept has created great awareness of sustainable water use and consumption. Applied to crop production, the green water footprint (WF) relates to rain water consumed, the blue WF to irrigation water consumed and the grey WF to water required for diluting agri-chemicals. We focussed on the green and blue WF and its variability for major arable crops in Europe. Crop growth and yield are affected by water availability and water stress during the season. Crop evapotranspiration and dry matter yield were modelled using FAO’s water balance model Aquacrop with reference evapotranspiration based on the assumptions by Allen. Weather input was collected for around 50 meteorological stations for the period 1992-2012. Soil, crop characteristics and field management for experimental fields enabled model calibration. Calibrated model runs were subsequently conducted for wheat, barley, grain maize, potato and sugar beet where applicable, and on the dominant soils for a particular region. The green and blue water footprints were calculated by dividing the total volume of green and blue water use during the growing season by the quantity of the production, respectively. The results demonstrated that the WF of cereals is larger than the WF of tuber and root crops, and that within each crop group there is a difference between different crops. This difference depends largely on the proportion of marketable produce to biomass produced per surface area. The calculated WF compared favourably with internationally available values, but is also subject to a large variability owing to both crop water use and yield differences between years, soils, and even more so between regions across Europe. In general, the drier the year, soil or region, the larger the water footprint. The WF for wheat, for example, can be up to five times larger for dry regions in southern Europe as compared to high yielding north-western European regions. Despite the demonstrated large variability, the water footprint is a policy-relevant concept and measurable indicator that supports European water governance.

Published
2016

42. Performance of process-based models for simulation of grain N in crop rotations across Europe

Author

Yin, Xiaogang, primary, Kersebaum, Kurt Christian, additional, Kollas, Chris, additional, Manevski, Kiril, additional, Baby, Sanmohan, additional, Beaudoin, Nicolas, additional, Öztürk, Isik, additional, Gaiser, Thomas, additional, Wu, Lianhai, additional, Hoffmann, Munir, additional, Charfeddine, Monia, additional, Conradt, Tobias, additional, Constantin, Julie, additional, Ewert, Frank, additional, de Cortazar-Atauri, Iñaki Garcia, additional, Giglio, Luisa, additional, Hlavinka, Petr, additional, Hoffmann, Holger, additional, Launay, Marie, additional, Louarn, Gaëtan, additional, Manderscheid, Remy, additional, Mary, Bruno, additional, Mirschel, Wilfried, additional, Nendel, Claas, additional, Pacholski, Andreas, additional, Palosuo, Taru, additional, Ripoche-Wachter, Dominique, additional, P. Rötter, Reimund, additional, Ruget, Françoise, additional, Sharif, Behzad, additional, Trnka, Mirek, additional, Ventrella, Domenico, additional, Weigel, Hans-Joachim, additional, and E. Olesen, Jørgen, additional

Published
2017
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44. Empirical analysis on crop-weather relationships

Author

Makowski, David, Sharif, Behzad, Olesen, Jørgen Eivind, Kersebaum, Kurt Christian, Trnka, Mirek, and Schelde, Kirsten

Abstract

There have been several studies, where process-based crop models are developed, used and compared in order to project crop production and corresponding model uncertainties under climate change. Despite many advances in this field, there are some correlations between climate variables and crop growth, such as pest and diseases, that is often absent in process-based models. Such relationships can be simulated using empirical models. In this study, several statistical techniques were applied on winter oilseed rape data collected in some European countries. The empirical models were then used to predict yield of winter oilseed rape in the field experiments during more than 20 years, up to 2013. Results suggest that newly developed regression techniques such as shrinkage methods work well both in yield projections and finding the influential climatic variables. Many of regression techniques agree in terms of yield prediction; however, choice of significant climate variables is rather sensitive to the choice of regression technique.

Published
2015

46. Crop rotation modelling—A European model intercomparison

Author

Kollas, Chris, primary, Kersebaum, Kurt Christian, additional, Nendel, Claas, additional, Manevski, Kiril, additional, Müller, Christoph, additional, Palosuo, Taru, additional, Armas-Herrera, Cecilia M., additional, Beaudoin, Nicolas, additional, Bindi, Marco, additional, Charfeddine, Monia, additional, Conradt, Tobias, additional, Constantin, Julie, additional, Eitzinger, Josef, additional, Ewert, Frank, additional, Ferrise, Roberto, additional, Gaiser, Thomas, additional, Cortazar-Atauri, Iñaki Garcia de, additional, Giglio, Luisa, additional, Hlavinka, Petr, additional, Hoffmann, Holger, additional, Hoffmann, Munir P., additional, Launay, Marie, additional, Manderscheid, Remy, additional, Mary, Bruno, additional, Mirschel, Wilfried, additional, Moriondo, Marco, additional, Olesen, Jørgen E., additional, Öztürk, Isik, additional, Pacholski, Andreas, additional, Ripoche-Wachter, Dominique, additional, Roggero, Pier Paolo, additional, Roncossek, Svenja, additional, Rötter, Reimund P., additional, Ruget, Françoise, additional, Sharif, Behzad, additional, Trnka, Mirek, additional, Ventrella, Domenico, additional, Waha, Katharina, additional, Wegehenkel, Martin, additional, Weigel, Hans-Joachim, additional, and Wu, Lianhai, additional

Published
2015
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47. Climate change is predicted to alter the current pest status of Globodera pallida and G. rostochiensis in the United Kingdom.

Author

Jones, Laura M., Atkinson, Howard J., Urwin, Peter E., Koehler, Ann-Kristin, Challinor, Andrew J., Trnka, Mirek, and Balek, Jan

Subjects
CLIMATE change, GLOBODERA pallida, GOLDEN nematode, PHYTOPATHOGENIC microorganisms, SOIL temperature, PESTS
Abstract

The potato cyst nematodes Globodera pallida and G. rostochiensis are economically important plant pathogens causing losses to UK potato harvests estimated at £50 m/ year. Implications of climate change on their future pest status have not been fully considered. Here, we report growth of female G. pallida and G. rostochiensis over the range 15 to 25°C. Females per plant and their fecundity declined progressively with temperatures above 17.5°C for G. pallida, whilst females per plant were optimal between 17.5 and 22.5°C for G. rostochiensis. Relative reproductive success with temperature was confirmed on two potato cultivars infected with either species at 15, 22.5 and 25°C. The reduced reproductive success of G. pallida at 22.5°C relative to 15°C was also recorded for a further seven host cultivars studied. The differences in optimal temperatures for reproductive success may relate to known differences in the altitude of their regions of origin in the Andes. Exposure of G. pallida to a diurnal temperature stress for one week during female growth significantly suppressed subsequent growth for one week at 17.5°C but had no effect on G. rostochiensis. However, after two weeks of recovery, female size was not significantly different from that for the control treatment. Future soil temperatures were simulated for medium- and high-emission scenarios and combined with nematode growth data to project future implications of climate change for the two species. Increased soil temperatures associated with climate change may reduce the pest status of G. pallida but benefit G. rostochiensis especially in the southern United Kingdom. We conclude that plant breeders may be able to exploit the thermal limits of G. pallida by developing potato cultivars able to grow under future warm summer conditions. Existing widely deployed resistance to G. rostochiensis is an important characteristic to retain for new potato cultivars. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2017
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