Search

Stellar spot distribution has consequences on the observable periodic signals in long-time baseline ground-based photometry. We model the statistics of the dominating spots of two young and active Solar-type stars, V889 Her and LQ Hya, in order to obtain information on the underlying spot distribution, rotation of the star, as well as the orientation of the stellar axis of spin. By calculating estimates for spot-induced periodicities in independent subsets of photometric data, we obtain statistics based on the dominating spots in each subset, giving rise to largest-spot statistics accounting for stellar geometry and rotation, including differential rotation. Our simple statistical models are able to reproduce the observed distribution of photometric signals rather well. This also enables us to estimate the dependence of angular velocity of the spots as a function of latitude. Our results indicate that V889 Her has a non-monotonic differential rotation curve with a maximum angular velocity between latitudes of 37-40 deg and lower angular velocity at the pole than the equator. Our results for LQ Hya indicate that the star rotates much like a rigid body. Furthermore, the results imply that the monotonic Solar differential rotation curve may not be a universal model for other solar-type stars. The non-monotonicity of the differential rotation of V889 Her is commonly produced in magnetohydrodynamic simulations, which indicates that our results are realistic from a theoretical perspective., Comment: 10 pages, 7 figures., final submitted version

Very little is known about the young planet population because the detection of small planets orbiting young stars is obscured by the effects of stellar activity and fast rotation which mask planets within radial velocity and transit data sets. The few planets that have been discovered in young clusters generally orbit stars too faint for any detailed follow-up analysis. Here we present the characterization of a new mini-Neptune planet orbiting the bright (V=9) and nearby K2 dwarf star, HD 18599. The planet candidate was originally detected in TESS light curves from Sectors 2, 3, 29, and 30, with an orbital period of 4.138~days. We then used HARPS and FEROS radial velocities, to find the companion mass to be 25.5$\pm$4.6~M$_\oplus$. When we combine this with the measured radius from TESS, of 2.70$\pm$0.05~R$_\oplus$, we find a high planetary density of 7.1$\pm$1.4~g cm$^{-3}$. The planet exists on the edge of the Neptune Desert and is the first young planet (300 Myr) of its type to inhabit this region. Structure models argue for a bulk composition to consist of 23% H$_2$O and 77% Rock and Iron. Future follow-up with large ground- and space-based telescopes can enable us to begin to understand in detail the characteristics of young Neptunes in the galaxy., Comment: Accepted in MNRAS

Earth-sized planets in the habitable zones of M dwarfs are good candidates for the study of habitability and detection of biosignatures. To search for these planets, we analyze all available radial velocity data and apply four signal detection criteria to select the optimal candidates. We find ten strong candidates satisfying these criteria and three weak candidates showing inconsistency over time due to data samplings. We also confirm three previous planet candidates and improve their orbital solutions through combined analyses of updated data sets. Among the strong planet candidates, HIP 38594 b is a temperate super-Earth with a mass of $8.2 \pm 1.7$ $M_\oplus$ and an orbital period of $60.7\pm0.1$ days, orbiting around an early-type M dwarf. Early-type M dwarfs are less active and thus are better hosts for habitable planets than mid-type and late-type M dwarfs. Moreover, we report the detection of five two-planet systems, including two systems made up of a warm or cold Neptune and a cold Jupiter, consistent with a positive correlation between these two types of planets. We also detect three temperate Neptunes, four cold Neptunes, and four cold Jupiters, contributing to a rarely explored planet population. Due to their proximity to the Sun, these planets on wide orbits are appropriate targets for direct imaging by future facilities such as HabEx and ELT., Comment: 27 pages, 17 figures, 2 tables, accepted for publication by ApJS

We report the detection of a transiting, dense Neptune planet candidate orbiting the bright ($V=8.6$) K0.5V star HD 95338. Detection of the 55-day periodic signal comes from the analysis of precision radial velocities from the Planet Finder Spectrograph on the Magellan II Telescope. Follow-up observations with HARPS also confirm the presence of the periodic signal in the combined data. HD 95338 was also observed by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite ({\it TESS}) where we identify a clear single transit in the photometry. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo period search on the velocities allows strong constraints on the expected transit time, matching well the epoch calculated from \tess{} data, confirming both signals describe the same companion. A joint fit model yields an absolute mass of 42.44$^{+2.22}_{-2.08} M_{\oplus}$ and a radius of 3.89$^{+0.19}_{-0.20}$ $R_{\oplus}$ which translates to a density of 3.98$^{+0.62}_{-0.64}$ \gcm\, for the planet. Given the planet mass and radius, structure models suggest it is composed of a mixture of ammonia, water, and methane. HD 95338\,b is one of the most dense Neptune planets yet detected, indicating a heavy element enrichment of $\sim$90\% ($\sim38\, M_{\oplus}$). This system presents a unique opportunity for future follow-up observations that can further constrain structure models of cool gas giant planets., Comment: 13 pages, 11 figures, MNRAS accepted

The presence of Jupiter is crucial to the architecture of the Solar System and models underline this to be a generic feature of planetary systems. We find the detection of the difference between the position and motion recorded by the contemporary astrometric satellite Gaia and its precursor Hipparcos can be used to discover Jupiter-like planets. We illustrate how observations of the nearby star $\varepsilon$ Indi A giving astrometric and radial velocity data can be used to independently find the orbit of its suspected companion. The radial velocity and astrometric data provide complementary detections which allow for a much stronger solution than either technique would provide individually. We quantify $\varepsilon$ Indi A b as the closest Jupiter-like exoplanet with a mass of 3 $M_{Jup}$ on a slightly eccentric orbit with an orbital period of 45 yr. While other long-period exoplanets have been discovered, $\varepsilon$ Indi A b provides a well constrained mass and along with the well-studied brown dwarf binary in orbit around $\varepsilon$ Indi A means that the system provides a benchmark case for our understanding of the formation of gas giant planets and brown dwarfs., Comment: 18 pages, 9 figures, 2 tables, accepted to be published in MNRAS. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1803.08163

We report the detection of a new planetary system orbiting the nearby M2.5V star GJ357, using precision radial-velocities from three separate echelle spectrographs, HARPS, HiRES, and UVES. Three small planets have been confirmed in the system, with periods of 9.125+/-0.001, 3.9306+/-0.0003, and 55.70+/-0.05 days, and minimum masses of 3.33+/-0.48, 2.09+/-0.32, and 6.72+/-0.94 Me, respectively. The second planet in our system, GJ357c, was recently shown to transit by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS; Luque et al. 2019), but we could find no transit signatures for the other two planets. Dynamical analysis reveals the system is likely to be close to coplanar, is stable on Myrs timescales, and places strong upper limits on the masses of the two non-transiting planets b and d of 4.25 and 11.20 Me, respectively. Therefore, we confirm the system contains at least two super-Earths, and either a third super-Earth or mini-Neptune planet. GJ357b & c are found to be close to a 7:3 mean motion resonance, however no libration of the orbital parameters was found in our simulations. Analysis of the photometric lightcurve of the star from the TESS, when combined with our radial-velocities, reveal GJ357c has an absolute mass, radius, and density of 2.248+0.117-0.120 Me, 1.167+0.037-0.036 Re, and 7.757+0.889-0.789 g/cm3, respectively. Comparison to super-Earth structure models reveals the planet is likely an iron dominated world. The GJ357 system adds to the small sample of low-mass planetary systems with well constrained masses, and further observational and dynamical follow-up is warranted to better understand the overall population of small multi-planet systems in the solar neighbourhood., Comment: Manuscript accepted to MNRAS 15/10/2019

A rocky planet orbiting LHS 1140 with a period of 24.7d has been found based on the discovery of transits in its light and high precision radial velocity data (Dittmann et al. 2017). This discovery by two independent methods is an observational tour-de-force, however, we find that a conservative analysis of the data gives a different solution. A three planet system is apparent in the radial velocity data based on our diagnosis of stellar activity. We encourage further targeted photometric and radial velocity observations in order to constrain the mini-Neptune and super-Earth mass objects apparently causing the 3.8 and 90 day radial velocity signals. We use our package Agatha (https://phillippro.shinyapps.io/Agatha/) to provide a comprehensive strategy to disentangle planetary signals from stellar activity in radial velocity data., Comment: 7 pages, 6 figures, 1 table, submitted to MNRAS

We confirm the trend in the radial velocity data for Epsilon Indi A suggesting a long-period planetary companion and find significant curvature is present, sufficient to quantify Epsilon Indi Ab as a cold Jupiter with a minimum mass of $2.71_{-0.44}^{+2.19}~M_{\rm Jup}$ on a nearly circular orbit with a semi-major axis of $12.82_{-0.71}^{+4.18}$ au and an orbital period of $52.62_{-4.12}^{+27.70}$ yr. We also identify other significant signals in the radial velocity data. We investigate a variety of spectral diagnostics and interpret these signals as arising from activity-induced radial velocity variations. In particular, the 2500 and 278 d signals are caused by magnetic cycles. While a planetary signal might be present in the 17.8 d signal, the origin of 17.8 and 11 d signals are most easily interpreted as arising in the rotation of the star with a period of about 35 d. We find that traditional activity indicators have a variety of sensitivities. In particular, the sodium lines and CaHK index are sensitive to all activity-induced signals. The line bisector measurement is sensitive to stellar rotation signal while H$\alpha$ is sensitive to the secondary magnetic cycle. In general, because of their different sensitivities these activity indicators introduce extra noise if included in the noise model whereas differential RVs provide a robust proxy to remove wavelength-dependent noise efficiently. Based on these analyses, we propose an activity diagnostics procedure for the detection of low amplitude signals in high precision radial velocity data. Thus the Epsilon Indi system comprises of at least Epsilon Indi A, Ab as well as a long period brown dwarf binary Ba and Bb; so it provides a benchmark case for our understanding of the formation of gas giants and brown dwarfs., Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures, submitted to MNRAS

AD Leonis is a nearby magnetically active M dwarf. We find Doppler variability with a period of 2.23 days as well as photometric signals: (1) a short period signal which is similar to the radial velocity signal albeit with considerable variability; and (2) a long term activity cycle of 4070$\pm$120 days. We examine the short-term photometric signal in the available ASAS and MOST photometry and find that the signal is not consistently present and varies considerably as a function of time. This signal undergoes a phase change of roughly 0.8 rad when considering the first and second halves of the MOST data set which are separated in median time by 3.38 days. In contrast, the Doppler signal is stable in the combined HARPS and HIRES radial velocities for over 4700 days and does not appear to vary in time in amplitude, phase, period or as a function of extracted wavelength. We consider a variety of star-spot scenarios and find it challenging to simultaneously explain the rapidly varying photometric signal and the stable radial velocity signal as being caused by starspots co-rotating on the stellar surface. This suggests that the origin of the Doppler periodicity might be the gravitational tug of a planet orbiting the star in spin-orbit resonance. For such a scenario and no spin-orbit misalignment, the measured $v \sin i$ indicates an inclination angle of 15.5$\pm$2.5 deg and a planetary companion mass of 0.237$\pm$0.047 M$_{\rm Jup}$., Comment: 19 pages (incl. example data tables), accepted for publication in AJ

We reanalyze the CARMENES and HIRES/KECK radial velocity data for HD 147379, and also analyze the SOPHIE data using the Agatha software in combination with MCMC posterior sampling. The analysis confirms the existence of HD 147379 b and improves the parameter estimation through modeling of red noise. The multiple radial velocity data sets for HD147379 provide a benchmark case for RV data analyses. Based on our analysis of the HD 147379 data, CARMENES radial velocity data is dominated by red noise and thus need to incorporate a red noise model., Comment: 3 pages, 1 figure, accepted for publication in the Research Note of the AAS

We report the discovery of a radial velocity signal that can be interpreted as a planetary-mass candidate orbiting the K dwarf HD26965, with an orbital period of 42.364$\pm$0.015 days, or alternatively, as the presence of residual, uncorrected rotational activity in the data. Observations include data from HIRES, PFS, CHIRON, and HARPS, where 1,111 measurements were made over 16 years. Our best solution for HD26965 $b$ is consistent with a super-Earth that has a minimum mass of 6.92$\pm$0.79 M$_{\oplus}$ orbiting at a distance of 0.215$\pm$0.008 AU from its host star. We have analyzed the correlation between spectral activity indicators and the radial velocities from each instrument, showing moderate correlations that we include in our model. From this analysis, we recover a $\sim$38 day signal, which matches some literature values of the stellar rotation period. However, from independent Mt. Wilson HK data for this star, we find evidence for a significant 42 day signal after subtraction of longer period magnetic cycles, casting doubt on the planetary hypothesis for this period. Although our statistical model strongly suggests that the 42-day signal is Doppler in origin, we conclude that the residual effects of stellar rotation are difficult to fully model and remove from this dataset, highlighting the difficulties to disentangle small planetary signals and photospheric noise, particularly when the orbital periods are close to the rotation period of the star. This study serves as an excellent test case for future works that aim to detect small planets orbiting `Sun-like' stars using radial velocity measurements., Comment: 16 pages, 10 figures, 13 tables, accepted for publication in AJ

We present a new precision radial velocity dataset that reveals a multi-planet system orbiting the G0V star HD 34445. Our 18-year span consists of 333 precision radial velocity observations, 56 of which were previously published, and 277 which are new data from Keck Observatory, Magellan at Las Campanas Observatory, and the Automated Planet Finder at Lick Observatory. These data indicate the presence of six planet candidates in Keplerian motion about the host star with periods of 1057, 215, 118, 49, 677, and 5700 days, and minimum masses of 0.63, 0.17, 0.1, 0.05, 0.12 and 0.38 Jupiter masses respectively. The HD 34445 planetary system, with its high degree of multiplicity, its long orbital periods, and its induced stellar radial velocity half-amplitudes in the range $2 \,{\rm m\, s^{-1}} \lesssim K \lesssim 5\,{\rm m\, s^{-1}}$ is fundamentally unlike either our own solar system (in which only Jupiter and Saturn induce significant reflex velocities for the Sun), or the Kepler multiple-transiting systems (which tend to have much more compact orbital configurations), Comment: 10 pages, 11 figures

The removal of noise typically correlated in time and wavelength is one of the main challenges for using the radial velocity method to detect Earth analogues. We analyze radial velocity data of tau Ceti and find robust evidence for wavelength dependent noise. We find this noise can be modeled by a combination of moving average models and "differential radial velocities". We apply this noise model to various radial velocity data sets for tau Ceti, and find four periodic signals at 20.0, 49.3, 160 and 642 d which we interpret as planets. We identify two new signals with orbital periods of 20.0 and 49.3 d while the other two previously suspected signals around 160 and 600 d are quantified to a higher precision. The 20.0 d candidate is independently detected in KECK data. All planets detected in this work have minimum masses less than 4$M_\oplus$ with the two long period ones located around the inner and outer edges of the habitable zone, respectively. We find that the instrumental noise gives rise to a precision limit of the HARPS around 0.2 m/s. We also find correlation between the HARPS data and the central moments of the spectral line profile at around 0.5 m/s level, although these central moments may contain both noise and signals. The signals detected in this work have semi-amplitudes as low as 0.3 m/s, demonstrating the ability of the radial velocity technique to detect relatively weak signals., Comment: 28 pages, 19 figures. 5 tables, accepted for publication in AJ

We explore the feasibility of detecting Earth analogs around Sun-like stars using the radial velocity method by investigating one of the largest radial velocities datasets for the one of the most stable radial-velocity stars HD20794. We proceed by disentangling the Keplerian signals from correlated noise and activity-induced variability. We diagnose the noise using the differences between radial velocities measured at different wavelength ranges, so-called "differential radial velocities". We apply this method to the radial velocities measured by HARPS, and identify four signals at 18, 89, 147 and 330 d. The two signals at periods of 18 and 89 d are previously reported and are better quantified in this work. The signal at a period of about 147 d is reported for the first time, and corresponds to a super-Earth with a minimum mass of 4.59 Earth mass located 0.51 AU from HD20794. We also find a significant signal at a period of about 330 d corresponding to a super-Earth or Neptune in the habitable zone. Since this signal is close to the annual sampling period and significant periodogram power in some noise proxies are found close to this signal, further observations and analyses are required to confirm it. The analyses of the eccentricity and consistency of signals provide weak evidence for the existence of the previously reported 43 d signal and a new signal at a period of about 11.9 d with a semi amplitude of 0.4 m/s. We find that the detection of a number of signals with radial velocity variations around 0.5\,m/s likely caused by low mass planet candidates demonstrates the important role of noise modeling in searching for Earth analogs., Comment: 11 pages, 9 figures, 2 tables, accepted for publication in A&A

Periodograms are used as a key significance assessment and visualisation tool to display the significant periodicities in unevenly sampled time series. We introduce a framework of periodograms, called "Agatha", to disentangle periodic signals from correlated noise and to solve the 2-dimensional model selection problem: signal dimension and noise model dimension. These periodograms are calculated by applying likelihood maximization and marginalization and combined in a self-consistent way. We compare Agatha with other periodograms for the detection of Keplerian signals in synthetic radial velocity data produced for the Radial Velocity Challenge as well as in radial velocity datasets of several Sun-like stars. In our tests we find Agatha is able to recover signals to the adopted detection limit of the radial velocity challenge. Applied to real radial velocity, we use Agatha to confirm previous analysis of CoRoT-7 and to find two new planet candidates with minimum masses of 15.1 $M_\oplus$ and 7.08 $M_\oplus$ orbiting HD177565 and HD41248, with periods of 44.5 d and 13.4 d, respectively. We find that Agatha outperforms other periodograms in terms of removing correlated noise and assessing the significances of signals with more robust metrics. Moreover, it can be used to select the optimal noise model and to test the consistency of signals in time. Agatha is intended to be flexible enough to be applied to time series analyses in other astronomical and scientific disciplines. Agatha is available at http://www.agatha.herts.ac.uk., Comment: 22 pages, 16 figures, 5 tables, MNRAS in press, the app is available at http://www.agatha.herts.ac.uk

We describe a 20-year survey carried out by the Lick-Carnegie Exoplanet Survey Team (LCES), using precision radial velocities from HIRES on the Keck-I telescope to find and characterize extrasolar planetary systems orbiting nearby F, G, K, and M dwarf stars. We provide here 60,949 precision radial velocities for 1,624 stars contained in that survey. We tabulate a list of 357 significant periodic signals that are of constant period and phase, and not coincident in period and/or phase with stellar activity indices. These signals are thus strongly suggestive of barycentric reflex motion of the star induced by one or more candidate exoplanets in Keplerian motion about the host star. Of these signals, 225 have already been published as planet claims, 60 are classified as significant unpublished planet candidates that await photometric follow-up to rule out activity-related causes, and 54 are also unpublished, but are classified as "significant" signals that require confirmation by additional data before rising to classification as planet candidates. Of particular interest is our detection of a candidate planet with a minimum mass of 3.9 Earth masses and an orbital period of 9.9 days orbiting Lalande 21185, the fourth-closest main sequence star to the Sun. For each of our exoplanetary candidate signals, we provide the period and semi-amplitude of the Keplerian orbital fit, and a likelihood ratio estimate of its statistical significance. We also tabulate 18 Keplerian-like signals that we classify as likely arising from stellar activity., Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astronomical Journal. Paper data available at: http://home.dtm.ciw.edu/ebps/data/

At a distance of 1.295 parsecs, the red-dwarf Proxima Centauri ($\alpha$ Centauri C, GL 551, HIP 70890, or simply Proxima) is the Sun's closest stellar neighbor and one of the best studied low-mass stars. It has an effective temperature of only $\sim$ 3050 K, a luminosity of $\sim$0.1 per cent solar, a measured radius of 0.14 R$_\odot$ and a mass of about 12 per cent the mass of the Sun. Although Proxima is considered a moderately active star, its rotation period is $\sim$ 83 days, and its quiescent activity levels and X-ray luminosity are comparable to the Sun's. New observations reveal the presence of a small planet orbiting Proxima with a minimum mass of 1.3~Earth masses and an orbital period of $\sim$11.2 days. Its orbital semi-major axis is $\sim0.05$ AU, with an equilibrium temperature in the range where water could be liquid on its surface., Comment: Version accepted for publication by Nature (unedited, July 7th, 2016), figures inserted in text for easier read. Article body : 10 pages, 3 figures, 1 table. Methods section : 23 pages, 9 figures, 1 table. IMPORTANT NOTE : Acknowledgment to IAA/CSIC researchers Javier Pascual Granado and Rafael Garrido added for useful discussions and feedback on the mathematical properties of time-series

Stellar activity may induce Doppler variability at the level of a few m/s which can then be confused by the Doppler signal of an exoplanet orbiting the star. To first order, linear correlations between radial velocity measurements and activity indices have been proposed to account for any such correlation. The likely presence of two super-Earths orbiting Kapteyn's star was reported in Anglada et al. (2014, MNRAS 443L, 89A), but this claim was recently challenged by Robertson et al. (2015, ApJ 805L, 22R) arguing evidence of a rotation period (143 days) at three times the orbital period of one of the proposed planets (Kapteyn's b, P=48.6 days), and the existence of strong linear correlations between its Doppler signal and activity data. By re-analyzing the data using global optimization methods and model comparison, we show that such claim is incorrect given that; 1) the choice of a rotation period at 143 days is unjustified, and 2) the presence of linear correlations is not supported by the data. We conclude that the radial velocity signals of Kapteyn's star remain more simply explained by the presence of two super-Earth candidates orbiting it. We also advocate for the use of global optimization procedures and objective arguments, instead of claims lacking of a minimal statistical support., Comment: Two column, 7 pages, 3 Figures, 1 table. Submitted to ApJ in response to http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015ApJ...805L..22R

Robertson et al.(Reports, July 25 2014, p440-444)(1) claimed that activity-induced variability is responsible for the Doppler signal of the proposed planet candidate GJ 581d. We point out that their analysis using periodograms of residual data is incorrect, further promoting inadequate tools. Since the claim challenges the viability of the method to detect exo-Earths, we urge for more appropriate analyses (see appendix)., Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures. Includes appendix with full re-analysis of the data

We perform an analysis of ~80000 photometric measurements for the following 10 stars hosting transiting planets: WASP-2, -4, -5, -52, Kelt-1, CoRoT-2, XO-2, TrES-1, HD 189733, GJ 436. Our analysis includes mainly transit lightcurves from the Exoplanet Transit Database, public photometry from the literature, and some proprietary photometry privately supplied by other authors. Half of these lightcurves were obtained by amateurs. From this photometry we derive 306 transit timing measurements, as well as improved planetary transit parameters. Additionally, for 6 of these 10 stars we present a set of radial velocity measurements obtained from the spectra stored in the HARPS, HARPS-N, and SOPHIE archives using the HARPS-TERRA pipeline. Our analysis of these TTV and RV data did not reveal significant hints of additional orbiting bodies in almost all of the cases. In the WASP-4 case, we found hints of marginally significant TTV signals having amplitude 10-20 sec, although their parameters are model-dependent and uncertain, while radial velocities did not reveal statistically significant Doppler signals., Comment: 16 pages, 6 figures, 4 tables; Accepted for publication in MNRAS

We report the detection of GJ 832c, a super-Earth orbiting near the inner edge of the habitable zone of GJ 832, an M dwarf previously known to host a Jupiter analog in a nearly-circular 9.4-year orbit. The combination of precise radial-velocity measurements from three telescopes reveals the presence of a planet with a period of 35.68+/-0.03 days and minimum mass (m sin i) of 5.4+/-1.0 Earth masses. GJ 832c moves on a low-eccentricity orbit (e=0.18+/-0.13) towards the inner edge of the habitable zone. However, given the large mass of the planet, it seems likely that it would possess a massive atmosphere, which may well render the planet inhospitable. Indeed, it is perhaps more likely that GJ 832c is a "super-Venus," featuring significant greenhouse forcing. With an outer giant planet and an interior, potentially rocky planet, the GJ 832 planetary system can be thought of as a miniature version of our own Solar system., Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ

Gaining a better understanding of the effects of stellar induced radial velocity noise is critical for the future of exoplanet studies, since the discovery of the lowest-mass planets using this method will require us to go below the intrinsic stellar noise limit. An interesting test case in this respect is that of the southern solar analogue HD41248. The radial velocity time series of this star has been proposed to contain either a pair of signals with periods of around 18 and 25 days, that could be due to a pair of resonant super-Earths, or a single and varying 25 day signal that could arise due to a complex interplay between differential rotation and modulated activity. In this letter we build-up more evidence for the former scenario, showing that the signals are still clearly significant even after more than 10 years of observations and they likely do not change in period, amplitude, or phase as a function of time, the hallmarks of static Doppler signals. We show that over the last two observing seasons this star was more intrinsically active and the noise reddened, highlighting why better noise models are needed to find the lowest amplitude signals, in particular models that consider noise correlations. This analysis shows that there is still sufficient evidence for the existence of two super-Earths on the edge of, or locked into, a 7:5 mean motion resonance orbiting HD41248., Comment: 18 pages, 2 figues, and 3 tables, to appear in ApJ

Exoplanets of a few Earth masses can be now detected around nearby low-mass stars using Doppler spectroscopy. In this paper, we investigate the radial velocity variations of Kapteyn's star, which is both a sub-dwarf M-star and the nearest halo object to the Sun. The observations comprise archival and new HARPS, HIRES and PFS Doppler measurements. Two Doppler signals are detected at periods of 48 and 120 days using likelihood periodograms and a Bayesian analysis of the data. Using the same techniques, the activity indicies and archival ASAS-3 photometry show evidence for low-level activity periodicities of the order of several hundred days. However, there are no significant correlations with the radial velocity variations on the same time-scales. The inclusion of planetary Keplerian signals in the model results in levels of correlated and excess white noise that are remarkably low compared to younger G, K and M dwarfs. We conclude that Kapteyn's star is most probably orbited by two super-Earth mass planets, one of which is orbiting in its circumstellar habitable zone, becoming the oldest potentially habitable planet known to date. The presence and long-term survival of a planetary system seems a remarkable feat given the peculiar origin and kinematic history of Kapteyn's star. The detection of super-Earth mass planets around halo stars provides important insights into planet-formation processes in the early days of the Milky Way., Comment: MNRAS:Letters, submitted April 14, Accepted May 27, 2014. Consists of 6 pages, 2 figures and 2 tables

Variations related to stellar activity and correlated noise can prevent the detections of low-amplitude signals in radial velocity data if not accounted for. This can be seen as the greatest obstacle in detecting Earth-like planets orbiting nearby stars with Doppler spectroscopy regardless of developments in instrumentation and rapidly accumulating amounts of data. We use a statistical model that is not sensitive to aperiodic and/or quasiperiodic variability of stellar origin. We demonstrate the performance of our model by re-analysing the radial velocities of the moderately active star CoRoT-7 ($\log R_{\rm HK} = -4.61$) with a transiting planet whose Doppler signal has proven rather difficult to detect. We find that the signal of the transiting planet can be robustly detected together with signals of two other planet candidates. Our results suggest that rotation periods of moderately active stars can be filtered out of the radial velocity noise, which enables the detections of low-mass planets orbiting such stars., Comment: 6 pages + HARPS data, submitted to MNRAS. Comments welcome

Due to their higher planet-star mass-ratios, M dwarfs are the easiest targets for detection of low-mass planets orbiting nearby stars using Doppler spectroscopy. Furthermore, because of their low masses and luminosities, Doppler measurements enable the detection of low-mass planets in their habitable zones that correspond to closer orbits than for Solar-type stars. We re-analyse literature UVES radial velocities of 41 nearby M dwarfs in a combination with new velocities obtained from publicly available spectra from the HARPS-ESO spectrograph of these stars in an attempt to constrain any low-amplitude Keplerian signals. We apply Bayesian signal detection criteria, together with posterior sampling techniques, in combination with noise models that take into account correlations in the data and obtain estimates for the number of planet candidates in the sample. More generally, we use the estimated detection probability function to calculate the occurrence rate of low-mass planets around nearby M dwarfs. We report eight new planet candidates in the sample (orbiting GJ 27.1, GJ 160.2, GJ 180, GJ 229, GJ 422, and GJ 682), including two new multiplanet systems, and confirm two previously known candidates in the GJ 433 system based on detections of Keplerian signals in the combined UVES and HARPS radial velocity data that cannot be explained by periodic and/or quasiperiodic phenomena related to stellar activities. Finally, we use the estimated detection probability function to calculate the occurrence rate of low-mass planets around nearby M dwarfs. According to our results, M dwarfs are hosts to an abundance of low-mass planets and the occurrence rate of planets less massive than 10 M$_{\oplus}$ is of the order of one planet per star, possibly even greater. ..., Comment: 31 pages, HARPS-TERRA velocities available in the appendix. To appear in MNRAS

We report the discovery of two long-period giant planets from the Anglo-Australian Planet Search. HD 154857c is in a multiple-planet system, while HD 114613b appears to be solitary. HD 114613b has an orbital period P=10.5 years, and a minimum mass m sin i of 0.48 Jupiter masses; HD 154857c has P=9.5 years and m sin i=2.6 Jupiter masses. These new data confirm the planetary nature of the previously unconstrained long-period object in the HD 154857 system. We have performed detailed dynamical stability simulations which show that the HD 154857 two-planet system is stable on timescales of at least 100 million years. These results highlight the continued importance of "legacy" surveys with long observational baselines; these ongoing campaigns are critical for determining the population of Jupiter analogs, and hence of those planetary systems with architectures most like our own Solar system., Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ

We re-analyse the recently published HARPS and PFS velocities of the nearby K dwarf GJ 221 that have been reported to contain the signatures of two planets orbiting the star. Our goal is to see whether the earlier studies discussing the system fell victims of false negative detections. We perform the analyses by using an independent statistical method based on posterior samplings and model comparisons in the Bayesian framework that is known to be more sensitive to weak signals of low-mass planets. According to our analyses, we find strong evidence in favour of a third candidate planet in the system corresponding to a cold sub-Saturnian planet with an orbital period of 500 days and a minimum mass of 29 $M_{\oplus}$. Application of sub-optimal signal detection methods can leave low-amplitude signals undetected in radial velocity time-series. Our results suggest that the estimated statistical properties of low-mass planets can thus be biased because several signals corresponding to low-mass candidate planets may have gone unnoticed. This also suggests that the occurrence rates of such planets based on radial velocity surveys might be underestimated., Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in the MNRAS

Since low-mass stars have low luminosities, orbits at which liquid water can exist on Earth-sized planets are relatively close-in, which produces Doppler signals that are detectable using state-of-the-art Doppler spectroscopy. GJ 667C is already known to be orbited by two super-Earth candidates. We investigate whether the data supports the presence of additional companions. We obtain new Doppler measurements from HARPS extracted spectra and combined them with those obtained from the PFS and HIRES spectrographs. We used Bayesian and periodogram-based methods to re-assess the number of candidates and evaluated the confidence of each detection. Among other tests, we validated the planet candidates by analyzing correlations of each Doppler signal activity indices and investigate quasi-periodicity. Doppler measurements of GJ 667C are described better by six Keplerian-like signals: the two known candidates (b and c); three additional few-Earth mass candidates with periods of 92, 62 and 39 days (d, e and f); a cold super-Earth in a 260-day orbit (g) and tantalizing evidence of a $\sim$ 1 M$_\oplus$ object in a close-in orbit of 17 days (h). We explore whether long-term stable orbits are compatible with the data by integrating 8$\times 10^4$ solutions derived from the Bayesian samplings. The system consisting of six planets is compatible with dynamically stable configurations. As for the solar system, the most stable solutions do not contain mean-motion resonances and are described well by analytic Laplace-Lagrange solutions. The presence of a seventh planet (h) is supported by the fact that it appears squarely centered on the only island of stability left in the six-planet solution. Habitability assessments accounting for the stellar flux, as well as tidal dissipation effects, indicate that three (maybe four) planets are potentially habitable..., Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A

Exoplanet Doppler surveys are currently the most efficient means to detect low-mass companions to nearby stars. Among these stars, the light M dwarfs provide the highest sensitivity to detect low-mass exoplanet candidates. Evidence is accumulating that a substantial fraction of these low-mass planets are found in high-multiplicity planetary systems. GJ 163 is a nearby inactive M dwarf with abundant public observations obtained using the HARPS spectrograph. We obtain and analyse radial velocities from the HARPS public spectra of GJ 163 and investigate the presence of a planetary companions orbiting it. The number of planet candidates detected might depend on some prior assumptions. Since the impact of prior choice has not been investigated throughly previously, we study the effects of different prior densities on the detectability of planet candidates around GJ 163. We use Bayesian tools, i.e. posterior samplings and model comparisons, when analysing the GJ 163 velocities. We consider models accounting for the possible correlations of subsequent measurements. We also search for activity-related counterparts of the signals we observe and test the dynamical stability of the planetary systems corresponding to our solutions using direct numerical integrations of the orbits. We find that there are at least three planet candidates orbiting GJ 163. The existence of a fourth planet is supported by the data but the evidence in favor of the corresponding model is not yet conclusive. The second innermost planet candidate in the system with an orbital period of 25.6 days and a minimum mass of 8.7 Me is inside the liquid-water habitable zone of the star., Comment: 13 pages, 11 Figures, to appear in A&A

The number of multi-planet systems known to be orbiting their host stars with orbital periods that place them in mean motion resonances is growing. For the most part, these systems are in first-order resonances and dynamical studies have focused their efforts towards understanding the origin and evolution of such dynamically resonant commensurabilities. We report here the discovery of two super-Earths that are close to a second-order dynamical resonance, orbiting the metal-poor ([Fe/H]=-0.43 dex) and inactive G2V star HD41248. We analysed 62 HARPS archival radial velocities for this star, that until now, had exhibited no evidence for planetary companions. Using our new Bayesian Doppler signal detection algorithm, we find two significant signals in the data, with periods of 18.357 days and 25.648 days, indicating they could be part of a 7:5 second-order mean motion resonance. Both semi-amplitudes are below 3m/s and the minimum masses of the pair are 12.3 and 8.6Mearth, respectively. Our simulations found that apsidal alignment stabilizes the system, and even though libration of the resonant angles was not seen, the system is affected by the presence of the resonance and could yet occupy the 7:5 commensurability, which would be the first planetary configuration in such a dynamical resonance. Given the multitude of low-mass multiplanet systems that will be discovered in the coming years, we expect more of these second-order resonant configurations will emerge from the data, highlighting the need for a better understanding of the dynamical interactions between forming planetesimals., Comment: 21 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ

In these proceedings we give a status update of the Calan-Hertfordshire Extrasolar Planet Search, an international collaboration led from Chile that aims to discover more planets around super metal-rich and Sun-like stars, and then follow these up with precision photometry to hunt for new bright transit planets. We highlight some results from this program, including exoplanet and brown dwarf discoveries, and a possible correlation between metallicity and planetary minimum mass at the lowest planetary masses detectable. Finally we discuss the short-term and long-term future pathways this program can take., Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, Submitted to the conference proceedings of the RoPACS meeting "Hot Planets and Cool Stars" (Nov. 2012, Garching)

Bayesian data analysis techniques, together with suitable statistical models, can be used to obtain much more information from noisy data than the traditional frequentist methods. For instance, when searching for periodic signals in noisy data, the Bayesian techniques can be used to define exact detection criteria for low-amplitude signals - the most interesting signals that might correspond to habitable planets. We present an overview of Bayesian techniques and present detailed analyses of the HARPS-TERRA velocities of HD 40307, a nearby star observed to host a candidate habitable planet, to demonstrate in practice the applicability of Bayes' rule to astronomical data., Comment: Submitted to the conference proceedings of the RoPACS meeting "Hot Planets and Cool Stars" (Nov. 2012, Garching), 14 pages

The abilities of radial velocity exoplanet surveys to detect the lowest-mass extra-solar planets are currently limited by a combination of instrument precision, lack of data, and "jitter". Jitter is a general term for any unknown features in the noise, and reflects a lack of detailed knowledge of stellar physics (asteroseismology, starspots, magnetic cycles, granulation, and other stellar surface phenomena), as well as the possible underestimation of instrument noise. We study an extensive set of radial velocities for the star HD 10700 ($\tau$ Ceti) to determine the properties of the jitter arising from stellar surface inhomogeneities, activity, and telescope-instrument systems, and perform a comprehensive search for planetary signals in the radial velocities. We perform Bayesian comparisons of statistical models describing the radial velocity data to quantify the number of significant signals and the magnitude and properties of the excess noise in the data. We reach our goal by adding artificial signals to the "flat" radial velocity data of HD 10700 and by seeing which one of our statistical noise models receives the greatest posterior probabilities while still being able to extract the artificial signals correctly from the data. We utilise various noise components to assess properties of the noise in the data and analyse the HARPS, AAPS, and HIRES data for HD 10700 to quantify these properties and search for previously unknown low-amplitude Keplerian signals. ..., Comment: 21 pages, 18 figures, accepted for publication in the Astronomy and Astrophysics

The K2.5 dwarf HD 40307 has been reported to host three super-Earths. The system lacks massive planets and is therefore a potential candidate for having additional low-mass planetary companions. We re-derive Doppler measurements from public HARPS spectra of HD 40307 to confirm the significance of the reported signals using independent data analysis methods. We also investigate these measurements for additional low-amplitude signals. We used Bayesian analysis of our radial velocities to estimate the probability densities of different model parameters. We also estimated the relative probabilities of models with differing numbers of Keplerian signals and verified their significance using periodogram analyses. We investigated the relation of the detected signals with the chromospheric emission of the star. As previously reported for other objects, we found that radial velocity signals correlated with the S-index are strongly wavelength dependent. We identify two additional clear signals with periods of 34 and 51 days, both corresponding to planet candidates with minimum masses a few times that of the Earth. An additional sixth candidate is initially found at a period of 320 days. However, this signal correlates strongly with the chromospheric emission from the star and is also strongly wavelength dependent. When analysing the red half of the spectra only, the five putative planetary signals are recovered together with a very significant periodicity at about 200 days. This signal has a similar amplitude as the other new signals reported in the current work and corresponds to a planet candidate with M sin i = 7 Me (HD 40307 g). ..., Comment: 23 pages, radial velocities included. Accepted for publication in the Astronomy and Astrophysics

The four-planet system around GJ 581 has received attention because it has been claimed that there are possibly two additional low-mass companions as well - one of them being a planet in the middle of the stellar habitable zone. We re-analyse the available HARPS and HIRES Doppler data in an attempt to determine the false positive rate of our Bayesian data analysis techniques and to count the number of Keplerian signals in the GJ 581 data. We apply the common Lomb-Scargle periodograms and posterior sampling techniques in the Bayesian framework to estimate the number of signals in the radial velocities. We also analyse the HARPS velocities sequentially after each full observing period to compare the sensitivities and false positive rates of the two signal detection techniques. By relaxing the assumption that the radial velocity noise is white, we also demonstrate the consequences that noise correlations have on the obtained results and the significances of the signals. According to our analyses, the number of Keplerian signals favoured by the publicly available HARPS and HIRES radial velocity data of GJ 581 is four. This result relies on the sensitivity of the Bayesian statistical analysis techniques but also depends on the assumed noise model. We also show that the radial velocity noise is actually not white and that this feature has to be accounted for when analysing radial velocities in a search for low-amplitude signals corresponding to low-mass planets. ..., Comment: 11 Pages, submitted to Astronomy and Astrophysics

We announce the discovery of a low-mass planet orbiting the super metal-rich K0V star HD77338 as part of our on-going Calan-Hertfordshire Extrasolar Planet Search. The best fit planet solution has an orbital period of 5.7361\pm0.0015 days and with a radial velocity semi-amplitude of only 5.96\pm1.74 m/s, we find a minimum mass of 15.9+4.7-5.3 Me. The best fit eccentricity from this solution is 0.09+0.25-0.09, and we find agreement for this data set using a Bayesian analysis and a periodogram analysis. We measure a metallicity for the star of +0.35\pm0.06 dex, whereas another recent work (Trevisan et al. 2011) finds +0.47\pm0.05 dex. Thus HD77338b is one of the most metal-rich planet host stars known and the most metal-rich star hosting a sub-Neptune mass planet. We searched for a transit signature of HD77338b but none was detected. We also highlight an emerging trend where metallicity and mass seem to correlate at very low masses, a discovery that would be in agreement with the core accretion model of planet formation. The trend appears to show that for Neptune-mass planets and below, higher masses are preferred when the host star is more metal-rich. Also a lower boundary is apparent in the super metal-rich regime where there are no very low-mass planets yet discovered in comparison to the sub-solar metallicity regime. A Monte Carlo analysis shows that this, low-mass planet desert, is statistically significant with the current sample of 36 planets at around the 4.5\sigma\ level. In addition, results from Kepler strengthen the claim for this paucity of the lowest-mass planets in super metal-rich systems. Finally, this discovery adds to the growing population of low-mass planets around low-mass and metal-rich stars and shows that very low-mass planets can now be discovered with a relatively small number of data points using stable instrumentation., Comment: 25 pages, 15 figures, 5 tables, accepted for publication in ApJ

Several M dwarfs are targets of systematical monitoring in searches for Doppler signals caused by low-mass exoplanet companions. As a result, an emerging population of high-multiplicity planetary systems around low-mass stars are being detected as well. We optimize classic data analysis methods and develop new ones to enhance sensitivity towards low-amplitude planets in high-multiplicity systems. We apply these methods to the public HARPS observations of GJ 676A, a nearby M dwarf with one reported gas giant companion. We re-derived Doppler measurements using the template matching method (HARPS-TERRA). We used refined versions of periodograms to assess the presence of additional low-mass companions. We analyse the same dataset with Bayesian tools and compared the performance of both approaches. We confirm the reported massive gas giant candidate and a long period trend, whose curvature is now well detected. We also find very secure evidence of two new candidates in close-in orbits and masses in the super-Earth mass regime. Despite the increased sensitivity of the new periodogram tools, we find that Bayesian methods are more sensitive in the early detection of candidate signals. While hardware development is important, development of data analysis techniques can help to reveal new results from existing data sets with significantly fewer resources. This new system holds the record of minimum-mass range (from Msin i = 4.5 M_Earth to 5 M_Jup) and period range (from 3.6 days to more than 10 years). Although all the planet candidates are substantially more massive, it is the first exoplanetary system with a general architecture similar to our solar system. GJ 676A can be happily added to the family of high-multiplicity planetary systems around M dwarfs., Comment: Accepted to A&A. 10 pages, 5 Figures, 5 Tables. Discussion on activity expanded. Doppler and activity time-series provided

We re-analyse the HARPS radial velocities of HD 10180 and calculate the probabilities of models with differing numbers of periodic signals in the data. We test the significance of the seven signals, corresponding to seven exoplanets orbiting the star, in the Bayesian framework and perform comparisons of models with up to nine periodicities. We use posterior samplings and Bayesian model probabilities in our analyses together with suitable prior probability densities and prior model probabilities to extract all the significant signals from the data and to receive reliable uncertainties for the orbital parameters of the six, possibly seven, known exoplanets in the system. According to our results, there is evidence for up to nine planets orbiting HD 10180, which would make this this star a record holder in having more planets in its orbits than there are in the Solar system. We revise the uncertainties of the previously reported six planets in the system, verify the existence of the seventh signal, and announce the detection of two additional statistically significant signals in the data. If of planetary origin, these two additional signals would correspond to planets with minimum masses of 5.1$^{+3.1}_{-3.2}$ and 1.9$^{+1.6}_{-1.8}$ M$_{\oplus}$ on orbits with 67.55$^{+0.68}_{-0.88}$ and 9.655$^{+0.022}_{-0.072}$ days periods (denoted using the 99% credibility intervals), respectively., Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in the Astronomy and Astrophysics

Estimating the marginal likelihoods is an essential feature of model selection in the Bayesian context. It is especially crucial to have good estimates when assessing the number of planets orbiting stars when the models explain the noisy data with different numbers of Keplerian signals. We introduce a simple method for approximating the marginal likelihoods in practice when a statistically representative sample from the parameter posterior density is available. We use our truncated posterior mixture estimate to receive accurate model probabilities for models with differing number of Keplerian signals in radial velocity data. We test this estimate in simple scenarios to assess its accuracy and rate of convergence in practice when the corresponding estimates calculated using deviance information criterion can be applied to receive trustworthy results for reliable comparison. As a test case, we determine the posterior probability of a planet orbiting HD 3651 given Lick and Keck radial velocity data. The posterior mixture estimate appears to be a simple and an accurate way of calculating marginal integrals from posterior samples. We show, that it can be used to estimate the marginal integrals reliably in practice, given a suitable selection of parameter \lambda, that controls its accuracy and convergence rate. It is also more accurate than the one block Metropolis-Hastings estimate and can be used in any application because it is not based on assumptions on the nature of the posterior density nor the amount of data or parameters in the statistical model., Comment: 7 pages, 2 Figs. Accepted for publication in the Astronomy and Astrophysics

We present a simple mathematical criterion for determining whether a given statistical model does not describe several independent sets of measurements, or data modes, adequately. We derive this criterion for two data sets and generalise it to several sets by using the Bayesian updating of the posterior probability density. To demonstrate the usage of the criterion, we apply it to observations of exoplanet host stars by re-analysing the radial velocities of HD 217107, Gliese 581, and \u{psion} Andromedae and show that the currently used models are not necessarily adequate in describing the properties of these measurements. We show that while the two data sets of Gliese 581 can be modelled reasonably well, the noise model of HD 217107 needs to be revised. We also reveal some biases in the radial velocities of \u{psion} Andromedae and report updated orbital parameters for the recently proposed 4-planet model. Because of the generality of our criterion, no assumptions are needed on the nature of the measurements, models, or model parameters. The method we propose can be applied to any astronomical problems, as well as outside the field of astronomy, because it is a simple consequence of the Bayes' rule of conditional probabilities., Comment: 10 pages, accepted for publication in the Astronomy and Astrophysics

In this article, we present a graphical user interface software for the litter decomposition and soil carbon model Yasso07 and an overview of the principles and formulae it is based on. The software can be used to test the model and use it in simple applications. Yasso07 is applicable to upland soils of different ecosystems worldwide, because it has been developed using data covering the global climate conditions and representing various ecosystem types. As input information, Yasso07 requires data on litter input to soil, climate conditions, and land-use change if any. The model predictions are given as probability densities representing the uncertainties in the parameter values of the model and those in the input data - the user interface calculates these densities using a built-in Monte Carlo simulation., Comment: 15 pages, 1 figure. Accepted for publication in Environmental Modelling and Software

The Gliese 581 planetary system has received attention because it has been proposed to host a low-mass planet in its habitable zone. We re-analyse the radial velocity measurements reported to contain six planetary signals to see whether these conclusions remain valid when the analyses are made using Bayesian tools instead of the common periodogram analyses. We analyse the combined radial velocity data set obtained using the HARPS and HIRES spectrographs using posterior sampling techniques and computation of the posterior probabilities of models with differing numbers of Keplerian signals. We do not fix the orbital eccentricities and stellar jitter to certain values but treat these as free parameters of our statistical models. Hence, we can take the uncertainties of these parameters into account when assessing the number of planetary signals present in the data, the point estimates of all of the model parameters, and the uncertainties of these parameters. We conclude that based on the Bayesian model probabilities and the nature of the posterior densities of the different models, there is evidence in favour of four planets orbiting GJ 581. The HARPS and HIRES data do not imply the conclusion that there are two additional companions orbiting GJ 581. We also revise the orbital parameters of the four companions in the system. Especially, according to our results, the eccentricities of all the companions in the system are consistent with zero., Comment: Submitted 25.10.2010. Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics 16.2.2011