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PURPOSE: Current clinical risk stratification methods for localized prostate cancer are suboptimal, leading to over- and undertreatment. Recently, machine learning approaches using digital histopathology have shown superior prognostic ability in phase III trials. This study aims to develop a clinically usable risk grouping system using multimodal artificial intelligence (MMAI) models that outperform current National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) risk groups. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The cohort comprised 9,787 patients with localized prostate cancer from eight NRG Oncology randomized phase III trials, treated with radiation therapy, androgen deprivation therapy, and/or chemotherapy. Locked MMAI models, which used digital histopathology images and clinical data, were applied to each patient. Expert consensus on cut points defined low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups on the basis of 10-year distant metastasis rates of 3% and 10%, respectively. The MMAIs reclassification and prognostic performance were compared with the three-tier NCCN risk groups. RESULTS: The median follow-up for censored patients was 7.9 years. According to NCCN risk categories, 30.4% of patients were low-risk, 25.5% intermediate-risk, and 44.1% high-risk. The MMAI risk classification identified 43.5% of patients as low-risk, 34.6% as intermediate-risk, and 21.8% as high-risk. MMAI reclassified 1,039 (42.0%) patients initially categorized by NCCN. Despite the MMAI low-risk group being larger than the NCCN low-risk group, the 10-year metastasis risks were comparable: 1.7% (95% CI, 0.2 to 3.2) for NCCN and 3.2% (95% CI, 1.7 to 4.7) for MMAI. The overall 10-year metastasis risk for NCCN high-risk patients was 16.6%, with MMAI further stratifying this group into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk, showing metastasis rates of 3.4%, 8.2%, and 26.3%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The MMAI risk grouping system expands the population of men identified as having low metastatic risk and accurately pinpoints a high-risk subset with elevated metastasis rates. This approach aims to prevent both overtreatment and undertreatment in localized prostate cancer, facilitating shared decision making.

BACKGROUND: Androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) with radiotherapy can benefit patients with localized prostate cancer. However, ADT can negatively impact quality of life, and there remain no validated predictive models to guide its use. METHODS: We used digital pathology images from pretreatment prostate tissue and clinical data from 5727 patients enrolled in five phase 3 randomized trials, in which treatment was radiotherapy with or without ADT, as our data source to develop and validate an artificial intelligence (AI)–derived predictive patient-specific model that would determine which patients would develop the primary end point of distant metastasis. The model used baseline data to provide a binary output that a given patient will likely benefit from ADT or not. After the model was locked, validation was performed using data from NRG Oncology/Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) 9408 (n=1594), a trial that randomly assigned men to radiotherapy plus or minus 4 months of ADT. Fine–Gray regression and restricted mean survival times were used to assess the interaction between treatment and the predictive model and within predictive model–positive, i.e., benefited from ADT, and –negative subgroup treatment effects. RESULTS: Overall, in the NRG/RTOG 9408 validation cohort (14.9 years of median follow-up), ADT significantly improved time to distant metastasis. Of these enrolled patients, 543 (34%) were model positive, and ADT significantly reduced the risk of distant metastasis compared with radiotherapy alone. Of 1051 patients who were model negative, ADT did not provide benefit. CONCLUSIONS: Our AI-based predictive model was able to identify patients with a predominantly intermediate risk for prostate cancer likely to benefit from short-term ADT. (Supported by a grant [U10CA180822] from NRG Oncology Statistical and Data Management Center, a grant [UG1CA189867] from NCI Community Oncology Research Program, a grant [U10CA180868] from NRG Oncology Operations, and a grant [U24CA196067] from NRG Specimen Bank from the National Cancer Institute and by Artera, Inc. ClinicalTrials.gov numbers NCT00767286, NCT00002597, NCT00769548, NCT00005044, and NCT00033631.)

ImportanceRadiotherapy combined with androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) is a standard of care for high-risk prostate cancer. However, the interplay between radiotherapy dose and the required minimum duration of ADT is uncertain.ObjectiveTo determine the specific ADT duration threshold that provides a distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) benefit in patients with high-risk prostate cancer receiving external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) or EBRT with a brachytherapy boost (EBRT+BT).Design, settings, and participantsThis was a cohort study of 3 cohorts assembled from a multicenter retrospective study (2000-2013); a post hoc analysis of the Randomized Androgen Deprivation and Radiotherapy 03/04 (RADAR; 2003-2007) randomized clinical trial (RCT); and a cross-trial comparison of the RADAR vs the Deprivación Androgénica y Radio Terapía (Androgen Deprivation and Radiation Therapy; DART) 01/05 RCT (2005-2010). In all, the study analyzed 1827 patients treated with EBRT and 1108 patients treated with EBRT+BT from the retrospective cohort; 181 treated with EBRT and 203 with EBRT+BT from RADAR; and 91 patients treated with EBRT from DART. The study was conducted from October 15, 2020, to July 1, 2021, and the data analyses, from January 5 to June 15, 2021.ExposuresHigh-dose EBRT or EBRT+BT for an ADT duration determined by patient-physician choice (retrospective) or by randomization (RCTs).Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was DMFS; secondary outcome was overall survival (OS). Natural cubic spline analysis identified minimum thresholds (months).ResultsThis cohort study of 3 studies totaling 3410 men (mean age [SD], 68 [62-74] years; race and ethnicity not collected) with high-risk prostate cancer found a significant interaction between the treatment type (EBRT vs EBRT+BT) and ADT duration (binned to

ImportanceProstate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) can detect low-volume, nonlocalized (ie, regional or metastatic) prostate cancer that was occult on conventional imaging. However, the long-term clinical implications of PSMA PET/CT upstaging remain unclear.ObjectivesTo evaluate the prognostic significance of a nomogram that models an individual's risk of nonlocalized upstaging on PSMA PET/CT and to compare its performance with existing risk-stratification tools.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study included patients diagnosed with high-risk or very high-risk prostate cancer (ie, prostate-specific antigen [PSA] level >20 ng/mL, Gleason score 8-10, and/or clinical stage T3-T4, without evidence of nodal or metastatic disease by conventional workup) from April 1995 to August 2018. This multinational study was conducted at 15 centers. Data were analyzed from December 2020 to March 2021.ExposuresCurative-intent radical prostatectomy (RP), external beam radiotherapy (EBRT), or EBRT plus brachytherapy (BT), with or without androgen deprivation therapy.Main outcomes and measuresPSMA upstage probability was calculated from a nomogram using the biopsy Gleason score, percentage positive systematic biopsy cores, clinical T category, and PSA level. Biochemical recurrence (BCR), distant metastasis (DM), prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM), and overall survival (OS) were analyzed using Fine-Gray and Cox regressions. Model performance was quantified with the concordance (C) index.ResultsOf 5275 patients, the median (IQR) age was 66 (60-72) years; 2883 (55%) were treated with RP, 1669 (32%) with EBRT, and 723 (14%) with EBRT plus BT; median (IQR) PSA level was 10.5 (5.9-23.2) ng/mL; 3987 (76%) had Gleason grade 8 to 10 disease; and 750 (14%) had stage T3 to T4 disease. Median (IQR) follow-up was 5.1 (3.1-7.9) years; 1221 (23%) were followed up for at least 8 years. Overall, 1895 (36%) had BCR, 851 (16%) developed DM, and 242 (5%) died of prostate cancer. PSMA upstage probability was significantly prognostic of all clinical end points, with 8-year C indices of 0.63 (95% CI, 0.61-0.65) for BCR, 0.69 (95% CI, 0.66-0.71) for DM, 0.71 (95% CI, 0.67-0.75) for PCSM, and 0.60 (95% CI, 0.57-0.62) for PCSM (P

The natural history of radiorecurrent high-risk prostate cancer (HRPCa) is not well-described. To better understand its clinical course, we evaluated rates of distant metastases (DM) and prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) in a cohort of 978 men with radiorecurrent HRPCa who previously received either external beam radiation therapy (EBRT, n = 654, 67%) or EBRT + brachytherapy (EBRT + BT, n = 324, 33%) across 15 institutions from 1997 to 2015. In men who did not die, median follow-up after treatment was 8.9 yr and median follow-up after biochemical recurrence (BCR) was 3.7 yr. Local and systemic therapy salvage, respectively, were delivered to 21 and 390 men after EBRT, and eight and 103 men after EBRT + BT. Overall, 435 men developed DM, and 248 were detected within 1 yr of BCR. Measured from time of recurrence, 5-yr DM rates were 50% and 34% after EBRT and EBRT + BT, respectively. Measured from BCR, 5-yr PCSM rates were 27% and 29%, respectively. Interval to BCR was independently associated with DM (p

PurposeWe evaluated the short and long-term surgical outcomes of urinary diversion done for urinary adverse events arising from prostate radiation therapy. We hypothesized that patient characteristics are associated with complications after urinary diversion.Materials and methodsWe performed a retrospective cohort study of 100 men who underwent urinary diversion (urinary conduit or continent catheterizable pouch) due to urinary adverse events after prostate radiotherapy from 2007 to 2016 from 9 academic centers in the United States. Outcome measurements included predictors of short and long-term complications, and readmission after urinary diversion of patients who had prostate cancer treated with radiotherapy. The data were summarized using descriptive statistics and univariate associations with complications were identified with logistic regression controlling for center.ResultsMean patient age was 71 years and median time from radiotherapy to urinary diversion was 8 years. Overall 81 (81%) patients had combined modality therapy (radical prostatectomy plus radiotherapy or various combinations of radiotherapy). Grade 3a or greater Clavien-Dindo complications occurred in 31 (35%) men, including 4 deaths (4.5%). Normal weight men had more short-term complications compared to overweight (OR 4.9, 95% CI 1.3-23.1, p=0.02) and obese men (OR 6.3, 95% CI 1.6-31.1, p=0.009). Hospital readmission within 6 weeks of surgery occurred for 35 (38%) men. Surgery was needed to treat long-term complications after urinary diversion in 19 (22%) patients with a median followup of 16.3 months.ConclusionsUrinary diversion after prostate radiotherapy has a considerable short and long-term surgical complication rate. Urinary diversion most often cannot be avoided in these patients but appreciation of the risks allows for informed shared decision making between surgeons and patients.

A study of 3425 men showed that those with STAR-CAP stages 1A-1C had similar risk of needing additional therapies and developing metastases after primary treatment. Stages 2A to 3B increased the risk of these outcomes. Men who underwent surgery were more likely to receive subsequent therapy, while radiation therapy patients were more likely to receive upfront intensified multimodality therapies. Introduction: The International Staging Collaboration for Prostate Cancer (STAR-CAP) has been proposed as a risk model for prostate cancer with superior prognostic power compared to the current staging system. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of STAR-CAP in predicting the risk of subsequent therapy after initial treatment and the risk of developing metastases. Patients and Methods: The study included 3425 men from an institutional observational registry with a median age of 64.9 years and a median follow-up time of 5.4 years. The primary endpoints were metastases and progression to additional therapy after initial therapy (radiation ± surgery). The risk of progression in the STAR-CAP group was estimated using a competing risk model (death). Results: The results showed that patients with STAR-CAP stages 1A-1C had a similar risk of requiring additional therapies and developing metastasis. Compared to stage IC, each stage from 2A to 3B incrementally increased the risk of subsequent therapy (hazard ratio (HR) 1.4-5.8, respectively) and metastases (HR 1.5-10.8, respectively). The 5-year probability of receiving subsequent therapy for a patient with stage IC was 8.6%, which increased from 11.4% to 37.4% for those with stages 2A to 3B. The 5-year probability of developing metastases for patients with stage IC was 1.5%, which increased from 2.2% to 8.2% for patients with stages 2A to 3B. Conclusions: The probability of receiving subsequent therapy was higher for patients undergoing surgery, while radiation therapy patients were more likely to receive treatment with intensified multimodality therapies upfront. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]