Stig Borbjerg Laursen, Jeong-Yoon Park, Nathan O’Donnell, Terry Fesaitu, George Benson, Wei Zhang, Michael Schultz, Emily Fawcett, Jane Møller Hansen, Harry R. Dalton, Iain A. Murray, Nicola C. Hare, Aidan Cahill, Ove B. Schaffalitzky de Muckadell, Hyder Hussaini, José A. García, Peter McLeod, Daniel R. Gaya, Nick Michell, Adibah Salleh, Chelsea Baines, Usama Warshow, Adrian J. Stanley, Oliver Blatchford, Cara McLaughlin, Hin Leung, William R. Murray, Heather Norton, and Matthew R. Johnston
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (UGIH) is a common cause of hospital admission. The Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS) is an accurate determinant of patients' risk for hospital-based intervention or death. Patients with a GBS of 0 are at low risk for poor outcome and could be managed as outpatients. Some investigators therefore have proposed extending the definition of low-risk patients by using a higher GBS cut-off value, possibly with an age adjustment. We compared 3 thresholds of the GBS and 2 age-adjusted modifications to identify the optimal cut-off value or modification.METHODS: We performed an observational study of 2305 consecutive patients presenting with UGIH at 4 centers (Scotland, England, Denmark, and New Zealand). The performance of each threshold and modification was evaluated based on sensitivity and specificity analyses, the proportion of low-risk patients identified, and outcomes of patients classified as low risk.RESULTS: There were differences in age (P = .0001), need for intervention (P < .0001), mortality (P < .015), and GBS (P = .0001) among sites. All systems identified low-risk patients with high levels of sensitivity (>97%). The GBS at cut-off values of ≤1 and ≤2, and both modifications, identified low-risk patients with higher levels of specificity (40%-49%) than the GBS with a cut-off value of 0 (22% specificity; P < .001). The GBS at a cut-off value of ≤2 had the highest specificity, but 3% of patients classified as low-risk patients had adverse outcomes. All GBS cut-off values, and score modifications, had low levels of specificity when tested in New Zealand (2.5%-11%).CONCLUSIONS: A GBS cut-off value of ≤1 and both GBS modifications identify almost twice as many low-risk patients with UGIH as a GBS at a cut-off value of 0. Implementing a protocol for outpatient management, based on one of these scores, could reduce hospital admissions by 15% to 20%.