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OBJECTIVES Transmission of drug-resistant HIV-1 has decreased in the UK since the early 2000s. This analysis reports recent trends and characteristics of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) in the UK from 2010 to 2013. METHODS Resistance tests conducted in antiretroviral treatment (ART)-naive individuals between 2010 and 2013 were analysed for the presence of transmitted drug resistance mutations (TDRMs), defined as any mutations from a modified 2009 World Health Organization surveillance list, or a modified 2013 International Antiviral Society-USA list for integrase tests. Logistic regression was used to examine associations between demographics and the prevalence of TDRMs. RESULTS TDRMs were observed in 1223 (7.5%) of 16 425 individuals; prevalence declined from 8.1% in 2010 to 6.6% in 2013 (P = 0.02). The prevalence of TDRMs was higher among men who have sex with men (MSM) compared with heterosexual men and women (8.7% versus 6.4%, respectively) with a trend for decreasing TDRMs among MSM (P = 0.008) driven by a reduction in nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI)-related mutations. The most frequently detected TDRMs were K103N (2.2%), T215 revertants (1.6%), M41L (0.9%) and L90M (0.7%). Predicted phenotypic resistance to first-line ART was highest to the nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) rilpivirine and efavirenz (6.2% and 3.4%, respectively) but minimal to NRTIs, including tenofovir, and protease inhibitors (PIs). No major integrase TDRMs were detected among 101 individuals tested while ART-naive. CONCLUSIONS We observed a decrease in TDRMs in recent years. However, this was confined to the MSM population and rates remained stable in those with heterosexually acquired HIV infection. Resistance to currently recommended first-line ART, including integrase inhibitors, remained reassuringly low.

Background: The prevalence of HIV-1 resistance to antiretroviral therapies (ART) has declined in high-income countries over recent years, but drug resistance remains a substantial concern in many low and middle-income countries. The Q151M and T69 insertion (T69i) resistance mutations in the viral reverse transcriptase gene can reduce susceptibility to all nucleoside/tide analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors, motivating the present study to investigate the risk factors and outcomes associated with these mutations. Methods: We considered all data in the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database for blood samples obtained in the period 1997-2014. Where available, treatment history and patient outcomes were obtained through linkage to the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort study. A matched case-control approach was used to assess risk factors associated with the appearance of each of the mutations in ART-experienced patients, and survival analysis was used to investigate factors associated with viral suppression. A further analysis using matched controls was performed to investigate the impact of each mutation on survival. Results: A total of 180 patients with Q151M mutation and 85 with T69i mutation were identified, almost entirely from before 2006. Occurrence of both the Q151M and T69i mutations was strongly associated with cumulative period of virological failure while on ART, and for Q151M there was a particular positive association with use of stavudine and negative association with use of boosted-protease inhibitors. Subsequent viral suppression was negatively associated with viral load at sequencing for both mutations, and for Q151M we found a negative association with didanosine use but a positive association with boosted-protease inhibitor use. The results obtained in these analyses were also consistent with potentially large associations with other drugs. Analyses were inconclusive regarding associations between the mutations and mortality, but mortality was high for patients with low CD4 at detection. Conclusions: The Q151M and T69i resistance mutations are now very rare in the UK. Our results suggest that good outcomes are possible for people with these mutations. However, in this historic sample, viral load and CD4 at detection were important factors in determining prognosis.

Background The impact of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) depends on infections averted by protecting vulnerable individuals as well as infections averted by preventing transmission by those who would have been infected if not receiving PrEP. Analysis of HIV phylogenies reveals risk factors for transmission, which we examine as potential criteria for allocating PrEP. Methods We analyzed 6912 HIV-1 partial pol sequences from men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United Kingdom combined with global reference sequences and patient-level metadata. Population genetic models were developed that adjust for stage of infection, global migration of HIV lineages, and changing incidence of infection through time. Models were extended to simulate the effects of providing susceptible MSM with PrEP. Results We found that young age

Background Darunavir is considered to have a high genetic barrier to resistance. Most darunavir-associated drug resistance mutations (DRMs) have been identified through correlation of baseline genotype with virological response in clinical trials. However, there is little information on DRMs that are directly selected by darunavir in clinical settings. Objectives We examined darunavir DRMs emerging in clinical practice in the UK. Patients and methods Baseline and post-exposure protease genotypes were compared for individuals in the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort Study who had received darunavir; analyses were stratified for PI history. A selection analysis was used to compare the evolution of subtype B proteases in darunavir recipients and matched PI-naive controls. Results Of 6918 people who had received darunavir, 386 had resistance tests pre- and post-exposure. Overall, 2.8% (11/386) of these participants developed emergent darunavir DRMs. The prevalence of baseline DRMs was 1.0% (2/198) among PI-naive participants and 13.8% (26/188) among PI-experienced participants. Emergent DRMs developed in 2.0% of the PI-naive group (4 mutations) and 3.7% of the PI-experienced group (12 mutations). Codon 77 was positively selected in the PI-naive darunavir cases, but not in the control group. Conclusions Our findings suggest that although emergent darunavir resistance is rare, it may be more common among PI-experienced patients than those who are PI-naive. Further investigation is required to explore whether codon 77 is a novel site involved in darunavir susceptibility.

Disease progression in HIV-infected individuals varies greatly, and while the environmental and host factors influencing this variation have been widely investigated, the viral contribution to variation in set-point viral load, a predictor of disease progression, is less clear. Previous studies, using transmission-pairs and analysis of phylogenetic signal in small numbers of individuals, have produced a wide range of viral genetic effect estimates. Here we present a novel application of a population-scale method based in quantitative genetics to estimate the viral genetic effect on set-point viral load in the UK subtype B HIV-1 epidemic, based on a very large data set. Analyzing the initial viral load and associated pol sequence, both taken before anti-retroviral therapy, of 8,483 patients, we estimate the proportion of variance in viral load explained by viral genetic effects to be 5.7% (CI 2.8–8.6%). We also estimated the change in viral load over time due to selection on the virus and environmental effects to be a decline of 0.05 log10 copies/mL/year, in contrast to recent studies which suggested a reported small increase in viral load over the last 20 years might be due to evolutionary changes in the virus. Our results suggest that in the UK epidemic, subtype B has a small but significant viral genetic effect on viral load. By allowing the analysis of large sample sizes, we expect our approach to be applicable to the estimation of the genetic contribution to traits in many organisms., Author Summary HIV viral load, the amount of virus in the blood, is an important predictor of rate of CD4+ cell decline, time to AIDS and onwards transmission. Plasma viral load is influenced by many environmental and host factors, but the contribution of the viral genome is not yet clear. We have adapted a method from quantitative genetics which considers the viral phylogeny as a pedigree, permitting analysis of large cohort-derived datasets for the first time. We found the viral genome contributes significantly to the level of the set point viral load, but only determines about 6% of the variation in this property in this population. Our study also suggests that the change over time in mean plasma viral load described in some recent studies has not been due to a change in the component of viral load that is contributed by viral genotype.

Background An increase in non-B HIV-1 infections among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United Kingdom (UK) has created opportunities for novel recombinants to arise and become established. We used molecular mapping to characterize the importance of such recombinants to the UK HIV epidemic, in order to gain insights into transmission dynamics that can inform control strategies. Methods and Results A total of 55,556 pol (reverse transcriptase and protease) sequences in the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database were analyzed using Subtype Classification Using Evolutionary Algorithms (SCUEAL). Overall 72 patients shared the same A1/D recombination breakpoint in pol, comprising predominantly MSM but also heterosexuals and injecting drug users (IDUs). In six MSM, full-length single genome amplification of plasma HIV-1 RNA was performed in order to characterize the A1/D recombinant. Subtypes and recombination breakpoints were identified using sliding window and jumping profile hidden markov model approaches. Global maximum likelihood trees of gag, pol and env genes were drawn using FastTree version 2.1. Five of the six strains showed the same novel A1/D recombinant (8 breakpoints), which has been classified as CRF50_A1D. The sixth strain showed a complex CRF50_A1D/B/U structure. Divergence dates and phylogeographic inferences were determined using Bayesian Evolutionary Analysis using Sampling Trees (BEAST). This estimated that CRF50_A1D emerged in the UK around 1992 in MSM, with subsequent transmissions to heterosexuals and IDUs. Analysis of CRF50_A1D/B/U demonstrated that around the year 2000 CRF50_A1D underwent recombination with a subtype B strain. Conclusions We report the identification of CRF50_A1D, a novel circulating recombinant that emerged in UK MSM around 1992, with subsequent onward transmission to heterosexuals and IDUs, and more recent recombination with subtype B. These findings highlight the changing dynamics of HIV transmission in the UK and the converging of the two previously distinct MSM and heterosexual epidemics.