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Numerous studies found that the CO2 fertilization effect can enhance vegetation growth, however, some recent studies showed that the increase of vapor pressure deficit (VPD) could reduce vegetation growth due to an increase in surface resistance. It remains unclear to what extent VPD increases can offset the CO2 fertilization effect. Here, we examined the long-term trends of terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) at the global scale using six products derived from satellite observations, machine learning algorithms, and dynamic vegetation model simulations. While we found significant increases (p less than 0.05) in GPP in most of the world, we also found significant decreases in GPP over the Amazon basin, western North America, eastern Europe and central Asia. Our attribution analysis showed that although the elevated CO2 concentration dominated the long-term trends of GPP, VPD also played an important role. The increasing VPD could explain the decreasing GPP over the arid and tropical regions. The negative contribution of VPD to GPP trends appeared to become amplified with time, leading to suppressed global vegetation growth in the last two decades. The amplified contribution of VPD to GPP trends was directly related to the decrease in soil moisture, indicating the soil moisture-induced land–atmosphere coupling (LAC) and the vegetation growth stagnation since the year 2000. Our results provide insight into the negative contribution of VPD to long-term GPP trends, which can partly offset 68.21 % of the CO2 fertilization effect and even stagnate the vegetation growth with time. The possible mechanisms behind the effect of soil moisture-VPD coupling on the vegetation dynamics at the global scale needs further investigation.

Transpiration from vegetation accounts for about two thirds of land evapotranspiration (ET), and exerts important effects on of global water, energy, and carbon cycles. Resistance-based ET partitioning models using remote sensing data are one of the main methods to estimate global land transpiration, overcoming the limitation by the sparse distribution and short observation periods of site-level measurements. However, the uncertainties of estimated transpiration for these models mainly come from the resistance parameterization based on specific empirical parameters across different plant functional types (PFT). A model based on eco-evolutionary optimization (P model) has recently been proposed to simulate stomatal conductance without the need of calibrated parameters. Here, we calculated global long-term (1982–2018) monthly transpiration with the Penman-Monteith (PM) equation using canopy conductance estimated by the P model (PM-P) and Ball-Berry-Leuning model (PM-BBL). Using the observations of SAPFLUXNET and FLUXNET sites as reference, the performance of PM-P was comparable with that of PM-BBL and Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam model (GLEAM). Multi-year mean and trends in growing season transpiration estimated by GLEAM and the PM-P model revealed a similar spatial distribution globally. Both GLEAM and the PM-P model showed a widespread increasing trend of growing season transpiration over 72.06%∼80.38% of global land, especially for some main greening hotspots with >3.0 mm/year. The good performance of the P model indicated that it could avoid the uncertainties emerging from the resistance parameterization with too many empirical parameters and had the potential to accurately estimate global transpiration.

Soil moisture plays an essential role in the land-atmosphere interface. It has become necessary to develop quality large-scale soil moisture data from satellite observations for relevant applications in climate, hydrology, agriculture, etc. Specifically, microwave-based observations provide more consistent land surface records because they are unhindered by cloud conditions. The recent microwave radiometers onboard FY-3B, FY-3C and FY-3D satellites launched by China’s Meteorological Administration (CMA) extend the number of available microwave observations, covering late 2011 up until the present. These microwave observations have the potential to provide consistent global soil moisture records to date, filling the data gaps where soil moisture estimates are missing in the existing records. Along these lines, we studied the FY-3C to understand its added value due to its unique time of observation in a day (ascending: 22:15, descending: 10:15) absent from the existing satellite soil moisture records. Here, we used the triple collocation technique to optimize a benchmark retrieval model of land surface temperature (LST) tailored to the observation time of FY3C, by evaluating various soil moisture scenarios obtained with different bias-imposed LSTs from 2014 to 2016. The globally optimized LST was used as an input for the land parameter retrieval model (LPRM) algorithm to obtain optimized global soil moisture estimates. The obtained FY-3C soil moisture observations were evaluated with global in situ and reanalysis datasets relative to FY3B soil moisture products to understand their differences and consistencies. We found that the RMSEs of their anomalies were mostly concentrated between 0.05 and 0.15 m3 m−3, and correlation coefficients were between 0.4 and 0.7. The results showed that the FY-3C ascending data could better capture soil moisture dynamics than the FY-3B estimates. Both products were found to consistently complement the skill of each other over space and

Actual evapotranspiration (ET) is an essential variable in the hydrological process, linking carbon, water, and energy cycles. Global ET has significantly changed in the warming climate. Although the increasing vapor pressure deficit (VPD) enhances atmospheric water demand due to global warming, it remains unclear how the dynamics of ET are affected. In this study, using multiple datasets, we disentangled the relative contributions of precipitation, net radiation, air temperature (T1), VPD, and wind speed on the annual ET linear trend using an advanced separation method that considers the Budyko framework. We found that the precipitation variability dominantly controls global ET in the dry climates, while the net radiation has substantial control over ET in the tropical regions, and VPD impacts ET trends in the boreal mid-latitude climate. The critical role of VPD in controlling ET trends is particularly emphasized due to its influence in controlling the carbon–water–energy cycle.

Two centuries of studies have demonstrated the importance of understanding the interaction between air temperature and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, which can impact the climate system and human life in various ways, and across different timescales. While historical interactions have been consistently studied, the nature of future interactions and the impacts of confounding factors still require more investigation in keeping with the continuous updates of climate projections to the end of the 21st century. Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), like its earlier projects, provides ScenarioMIP multi-model projections to assess the climate under different radiative forcings ranging from a low-end (SSP1–2.6) to a high-end (SSP5–8.5) pathway. In this study, we analyze the localized causal structure of CO2, and near-surface mean air temperature (meanT) interaction for four scenarios from three CMIP6 models using a rigorous multivariate information flow (IF) causality,which can separate the cause from the effect within the interaction (CO 2–meanT and meanT–CO2) by measuring the rate of IF between parameters. First, we obtain patterns of the CO2 and meanT causal structures over space and time. We found a contrasting emission-based impact of soil moisture (SM) and vegetation (leaf area index (LAI)) changes on the meanT–CO2 causal patterns. That is, SM influenced CO2 sink regions in SSP1–2.6 and source regions in SSP5–8.5, and vice versa found for LAI influences. On the other hand, they function similarly to constrain the future CO2 impact on meanT. These findings are essential for improving long-term predictability where climate models might be limited.

Actual evapotranspiration (ET) is an essential variable in the hydrological process, linking carbon, water, and energy cycles. Global ET has significantly changed in the warming climate. Although the increasing vapor pressure deficit (VPD) enhances atmospheric water demand due to global warming, it remains unclear how the dynamics of ET are affected. In this study, using multiple datasets, we disentangled the relative contributions of precipitation, net radiation, air temperature (T1), VPD, and wind speed on the annual ET linear trend using an advanced separation method that considers the Budyko framework. We found that the precipitation variability dominantly controls global ET in the dry climates, while the net radiation has substantial control over ET in the tropical regions, and VPD impacts ET trends in the boreal mid-latitude climate. The critical role of VPD in controlling ET trends is particularly emphasized due to its influence in controlling the carbon–water–energy cycle.

In this study, an existing combination approach that maximizes temporal correlations is used to combine six passive microwave satellite soil moisture products from 1998 to 2015 to assess its added value in long-term applications. Five of the products used are included in existing merging schemes such as the European Space Agency’s essential climate variable soil moisture (ECV) program. These include the Special Sensor Microwave Imagers (SSM/I), the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM/TMI), the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) sensor on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Aqua satellite, the WindSAT radiometer, onboard the Coriolis satellite and the soil moisture retrievals from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sensor onboard the Global Change Observation Mission on Water (GCOM-W). The sixth, the microwave radiometer imager (MWRI) onboard China’s Fengyun-3B (FY3B) satellite, is absent in the ECV scheme. Here, the normalized soil moisture products are merged based on their availability within the study period. Evaluation of the merged product demonstrated that the correlations and unbiased root mean square differences were improved over the whole period. Compared to ECV, the merged product from this scheme performed better over dense and sparsely vegetated regions. Additionally, the trends in the parent inputs are preserved in the merged data. Further analysis of FY3B’s contribution to the merging scheme showed that it is as dependable as the widely used AMSR2, as it contributed significantly to the improvements in the merged product.