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This work presents statistical models of the variability of plasma in the topside ionosphere based on observations made by the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Swarm satellites. The models were developed in the “Swarm Variability of Ionospheric Plasma” (Swarm-VIP) project within the European Space Agency’s Swarm+4D-Ionosphere framework. The configuration of the Swarm satellites, their near-polar orbits and the data products developed, enable studies of the spatial variability of the ionosphere at multiple scale sizes. The statistical modelling technique of Generalised Linear Modelling (GLM) was used to create models of both the electron density and measures of the variability of the plasma structures at horizontal spatial scales between 20 km and 100 km. Despite being developed using the Swarm data, the models provide predictions that are independent of these data. Separate models were created for low, middle, auroral and polar latitudes. The models make predictions based on heliogeophysical variables, which act as proxies for the solar and geomagnetic processes. The first and most significant term in the majority of the models was a proxy for solar activity. The most common second term varied with the latitudinal region. This was the Solar Zenith Angle (SZA) in the polar region, a measure of latitude in the auroral region, solar time in the mid-latitude region and a measure of latitude in the equatorial region. Other, less significant terms in the models covered a range of proxies for the solar wind, geomagnetic activity and location. In this paper, the formulation, optimisation and evaluation of these models are discussed. The models show very little bias, with a mean error of zero to two decimal places in 14 out of 20 cases. The models capture some, but not all, of the trends present in the data, with Pearson correlation coefficients of up to 0.75 between the observations and the model predictions. The models also capture some, but not all, of the variability of the ionospheric plasma, as indicated by the precision, which ranged between 0.20 and 0.83. The addition of the thermospheric density as an explanatory variable in the models improved the precision in the polar and auroral regions. It is suggested that, if the thermosphere could be observed at a higher spatial resolution, then even more of the variability of the plasma structures could be captured by statistical models. The formulation and optimisation of the models are presented in this paper. The capability of the model in reproducing the expected climatological features of the topside ionosphere, in supporting GNSS-based ionospheric observations and the performance of the model against the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM), are provided in a companion paper (Spogli L et al. 2024. J Space Weather Space Clim https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2024003).

Statistical models of the variability of plasma in the topside ionosphere based on the Swarm data have been developed in the “Swarm Variability of Ionospheric Plasma” (Swarm-VIP) project within the European Space Agency’s Swarm+4D-Ionosphere framework. The models can predict the electron density, its gradients for three horizontal spatial scales – 20, 50 and 100 km – along the North-South direction and the level of the density fluctuations. Despite being developed by leveraging on Swarm data, the models provide predictions that are independent of these data, having a global coverage, fed by various parameters and proxies of the helio-geophysical conditions. Those features make the Swarm-VIP models useful for various purposes, which include the possible support for already available ionospheric models and proxy of the effect of ionospheric irregularities of the medium scales that affect the signals emitted by Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). The formulation, optimisation and validation of the Swarm-VIP models are reported in Paper 1 (Wood et al. 2024. J Space Weather Space Clim. in press). This paper describes the performance assessment of the models, by addressing their capability to reproduce the known climatological variability of the modelled quantities, and the ionospheric weather as depicted by ground-based GNSS, as a proxy for the ionospheric effect on GNSS signals. Additionally, we demonstrate that, under certain conditions, the model can better reproduce the ionospheric variability than a physics-based model, namely the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM).

This paper was written by a group of European researchers believing that now is the right time to frame the Space Weather and Space Climate discipline in Europe for future years. It is devoted to openly discussing the organisation and sustainability of the European Space Weather community and its assets in the (near) future. More specifically, we suggest that the European Space Weather community lacks a uniting organisation to help the community to sustain and develop the successful efforts made thus far. Our aim is not to draw a complete and exhaustive panorama of Space Weather throughout the world, nor even throughout Europe. It is not a new white paper on the science and applications: there exist many (e.g. Tsurutani et al., 2020 Nonlinear Processes Geophys 27(1): 75–119); nor another roadmap: several important have been published recently (e.g. Schrijver et al., 2015. Adv Space Res 55(12): 2745–2807; Opgenoorth et al., 2019. J Space Weather Space Clim 9: A37). Our aim is to question our practices and organisation in front of several changes that have occurred in the recent years and to set the ground to provide coordinated answers to these questions being posed in Europe, and to make these answers discussed throughout the world. This group was assembled first through a series of sessions devoted to the sustainability of Space Weather research during the European Space Weather Week (ESWW) series of meetings, specifically: ESWW 14 (2017), ESWW 15 (2018), and ESWW 16 (2019). It then grew from discussions and personal contacts. The authors do not pretend to identify the full range of opinions in Europe, although they do come from 13 different European countries with a large span of ages (around half are below the age of 40 years old at the time of writing) with a good gender balance ending with a diverse mix of young and motivated scientists and senior people who have played a role in shaping the Space Weather community in Europe. The questions and the propositions to organise Space Weather in Europe in the future result from their discussions through these meetings and through remote meetings during the pandemic. We wish to share them with all those who consider themselves as members of the European Space Weather community and/or are interested in its future and to propose actions. We do this, bearing in mind that Europe plays a key international role in Space Weather which extends beyond the ESA and EU/EC geographic area.

The Atmospheric Drag, Occultation ‘N’ Ionospheric Scintillation mission (ADONIS) studies the dynamics of the terrestrial thermosphere and ionosphere in dependency of solar events over a full solar cycle in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). The objectives are to investigate satellite drag with in-situ measurements and the ionospheric electron density profiles with radio occultation and scintillation measurements. A constellation of two satellites provides the possibility to gain near real-time data (NRT) about ionospheric conditions over the Arctic region where current coverage is insufficient. The mission shall also provide global high-resolution data to improve assimilative ionospheric models. The low-cost constellation can be launched using a single Vega rocket and most of the instruments are already space-proven allowing for rapid development and good reliability. From July 16 to 25, 2013, the Alpbach Summer School 2013 was organised by the Austrian Research Promotion Agency (FFG), the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Space Science Institute (ISSI) and the association of Austrian space industries Austrospace in Alpbach, Austria. During the workshop, four teams of 15 students each independently developed four different space mission proposals on the topic of “Space Weather: Science, Missions and Systems”, supported by a team of tutors. The present work is based on the mission proposal that resulted from one of these teams’ efforts.