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A two-stage method has been developed for calculating and forecasting the annual volumes of glacial runoff feeding mountainous rivers. At the first stage, the series of morphological characteristics of glaciers are reconstructed using limited data from regional glaciation monitoring. An example of a numerical description and analysis of the annual reconstructed dynamics of glaciation parameters in the upper Rhone River (Switzerland) is presented. Similar results of reconstruction of annual values of the morphological characteristics were obtained for the basins of tributaries of the Terek River (North Caucasus) and the Western Kyzylsu River (Pamir). At the second stage, the calculation and forecast of the time series of the average summer air temperature Ts(Zmean) at the height of Zmean is performed, which is used as an argument for determining the ablation layer by the formula Ab = f(Ts) on the glaciation area Fgl. The annual vertical profiles of mean air temperature of April T4 = T4(Z), summer ones Ts = Ts(Z), and formulas for calculating Ts as a function of T4 are constructed and used for the calculations. Thus, on a regional scale, it was established for the first time that the April air temperature T4 allows calculating a thickness of the annual ablation layer Ab = f(Ts) with a month earliness the forecast at the average height Zmean of the glacier. The reconstructed Fgl(t) series is used to obtain annual volumes of glacial alimentation. A regional study of variability of the index of glacial alimentation δ (Schultz, 1965) with time t was carried out using long-period measurements of runoff in the river basins of Eurasia, North America, Central Europe, and Central Asia. The index δ is equal to the ratio between the volumes W of flow or the average water discharges Q for the periods July-September (Q7–9) and March-June (Q3–6).As a result of the analysis of the expression δ = δ(t), it was found that the gradient of the linear trend equation for the δ index in all the above river basins is negative, which is indicative of a reduction in glacial-snow alimentation, or more precisely – in only its glacial component. Notwithstanding this, the annual runoff Qyear decreased only in three basins, and in the others Qyear, increased due to the growth of Q3–6, which overlapped decreasing of Q7–9. Index δ for the upper reaches of the Rhone River turned out to be not only a representative characteristic of changes in the vegetation period and annual runoff of the river, but also an efficient argument for the super-long-range prediction of these variables for 2025–2054 years.

The study was aimed at analysis of changes in the area Fgl, the number Ngl and statistical parameters of distribution for different aggregates of glaciers over two periods: 1946–1975 and 1976–2005. The determined changes in the above parameters of glaciers located in river basins of the following mountain regions: the North Caucasus (Baksan, Chegem, Cherek, Malka, Teberda, Terek), Alay ridge (Akbura, Isfara, Isfayram, Shahimardan, Sokh), Altay (Aktru, Chuya, Katun) and Pamir (Gunt), are presented in the article. For better reliability of the height parameters of the glacier aggregates at the scale of the river basins, the maximum, minimum and average height values of individual glaciers were weighed by area. The trustworthiness of changes of the weighed height parameters confirms consistency with the linear relationship adopted at the scale of the river basin between the dimensions of the glaciers and the average weighed heights of beginning, end and average altitude of individual glaciers. Definition of the concept and the scale of representativeness of local measurements of glacier mass balance in the WGMS database is the actual glaciological problem. The proposed quantitative substantiation and the results of the selection of a group of representative glaciers are, in general, based on the use of parameters of dynamical state of individual glaciers distributed over several intervals from the minimum to maximum area values. The parameters of each glacier included: total area, volume, maximum and minimum height difference, index of morphological type, average thickness, orientation and slope of the surface. The sequence of determining the composition of a sample of representative glaciers on the example of glaciations in the basins of the Kyzylsu Western (Pamir) and Katun (Altai) rivers is described. Important part of the work was performed to reveal the possibilities to use local values (Ab – ablation/Bs – summer mass balance) measured on a priori reference/representative glaciers in the WGMS database as an additional argument for modeling and calculation of river runoff at the scale of river basins for June–September and other time intervals. Adding of local values of Ab/Bs as a complementary argument to the regression equations for regional calculations of runoff of the rivers of a snow-glacial feeding in the North Caucasus, Pamir-Alai and Altai was found to be efficient in only limited number of cases. The hydrological representation of the glacier is a new characteristic of practical importance for solving problems of hydrology and glaciology in river basins of snow-glacial type of the flow formation, which include almost all Alpine river basins. The method of revealing the hydrological representativeness of local Ab/Bs measurements described in the paper may be used for glaciers from the existing WGMS network.

Rivers with snow-glacier alimentation in six basins of the Northern Caucasus (Cherek, Chegem, Baksan, Malka, Teberda, and upper course of the Terek River) and Altai (the Katun’ River) were investigated in 1946–2005 for the purpose to analyze long-term streamflow variations. It was noted that in 1976–2005 volume of annual runoff increased relative to the previous 30-year interval in four of six rivers of the Northern Caucasus. During the vegetation period the volume of runoff changed synchronously with the annual one. As for the river Katun’, its volumes and variability of both, the annual runoff and that for the vegetation season, decreased. In the course of investigation of spatial-temporal dynamics of hydrological and glaciological characteristics in the above river basins of the Northern Caucasus and the same of Katun’ River the following problems were considered and solved: a) the information and methodological basis for regional calculations of the runoff for the rivers with snow-glacier alimentation had been improved and corrected; b) changes of the components of hydrological cycle (precipitation, evaporation, and glacier runoff) over the glaciation area had been estimated for the period of 1946–2005; c) data on quality of the initial glaciological and hydrological information were integrated; d) definitions of the runoff were verified by means of comparison of measured runoff with similar values calculated by equation of the annual water budget as a whole for the basin. It should be noted that the total areas of glaciers and areas of their ablation were significantly reduced, but areas and thicknesses of ice under the moraine cover increased. Despite widespread, sometimes twofold decrease in the relative part of glacier alimentation in the total river streamflow for period of April–September this did make almost no effect on the water supply of the vegetation period in individual basins as well as in the whole the Northern Caucasus.

Analysis of changes in WB components (precipitation, evaporation, glacier runoff, dynamical water resources) on the Northern slope of the Zailiisky Alatau was performed for the 1946–2005 time divided into two periods: 1946–1975 and 1976–2005. The territory under investigation included basins of the following rivers: Bolshaya Almatinka, Malaya Almatinka, Talgar, Turgen, Issyk, Chemolgan, Kaskelen, Kargalinka, Prohodnaya, and Uzunkargaly. Their total area down to the closing gauge points amounts to 2644 km2. Summarized glacier areas in these basins and annual runoff were equal, respectively, to: 306.6 km2 and 39.05 km3in 1946–1975, and 253.0 km2 and 38.35 km3 in 1975–2005. In 1946–2005, typical features of regional glaciation dynamics were increasing area of the moraine cover on glaciers and reducing area of bare ice that results in decreasing of the glacial runoff volume, all other factors being the same. The method to calculate the WB components consists of the following constituents: model of seasonal runoff from melted snow and ice in the areas of accumulation and ablation of glaciers; complex of formulas to calculate precipitation, air temperature and humidity, intensity of ice melting under the moraine, bare ice and evaporation within the height intervals corresponding to the main types of surfaces on the glaciers. On the basis of our method, we could reconstruct for the 1876–2015 period long‑term series of data on a runoff, separately annual values and sums for the vegetation periods. They can be used for regional scientific and applied analyses of the river stream discharges. The data on runoff in the Malaya Almatinka River basin and observational data on the meteorological station Almaty (Hydrometeorological Observatory) had been quantitatively substantiated as the representative information for modeling and calculation of water resources on the Northern slope of the Zailiisky Alatau Range.

Results of distant satellite sounding (the TERRA satellite) of high-mountainous areas and digital models SRTM 4.1 and ASTER DEM G2 of the same relief were used to calculate the following parameters of high-mountain dammed glacial lakes: area, depth, the water volume, excess of the dam above the water level. It is important for estimation of the water volume that can be dangerous for a break-through of a dammed lake. Formulas deduced to calculate the depth and volume of a lake for several sections of its area were tested and proposed. It is demonstrated that the regression equation V = Hmax × F, where Hmax is maximum depth of the lake, can be used as the parameterization of the formula «lake volume V equals the product of the area F on average depth D». More precise values of the coefficients a and b in the formula V = aFb were also obtained. Parameters and the water volumes of lakes were estimated for the river Gunt (right tributary of Pyanj River) basin. According to [28], there are 428 high-mountain lakes in this region with their total area ≥ 2500 m2. For basin Inflow of melted snow and glacier water caused by the rise of mean summer air temperatures in 1931–2015 was estimated for the lake Rivankul basin (the Pamir Mountains).

Suggested new method for reconstruction of runoff includes: 1. Search informative points based weather observations for dependence runoff = f(climate index). Climate index consists of normalized anomalies of annual precipitation and air temperature, together with water vapor pressure and total cloud amount in the June–September. 2. The selection of sites that represent local relationship between the index of climate and tree rings. 3. Getting the multivariate linear regression equation between the runoff V and tree rings D. Basic climatic period 1961–1990 is used as a calibration interval of time. Verification of the equations for 1940–1960 identified the need to use other arguments in addition to the width of tree rings. For this purpose, two climate index: PDSI and SPEI were tested. It is established that the empirical formulae V = f(D, PDSI) and V = f(D, SPEI) are suitable for assessing the annual flow of the Naryn in 1901–2006. In the report is described a process of reconstruction of flow for the years 1700–2005 based on the data of the width of the tree rings, and taking into account the temporal variability of parameters of regression equations.Chronologies of the width and density of tree rings in the thirty-two tree ring sites were used to reconstruct long-term series of average summer air temperature Ts at meteorological stations of the Pamir and Tien Shan. The calibration interval of time was 1961–1990 to find equations Ts = f(D) of third-order multiple regression, and independent control of their quality, done in 1932–1960. Combined correlation coefficient in 10 cases out of 15 was more than 0.80, a relative error of calculation Ts in 19611990 ranged from 0.13 to 4.73%, and in 1932–1960 from 0.23 to 8.10%. Duration of the reconstructed series Ts ranged from 100 to 278 years. Positive results were received for predicting a common and glacial runoff of Naryn river, a long-term range of density of tree rings.

Altitude and areal characteristics of glaciation of the Earth, as well as annual ELA and AAR values for a limited number of glaciers can be found in references [10, 15, 16, 18, 29]. According to these data, the analysis of the relations between ELA, AAR, annual mass balance of glaciers and its components was performed for use in the remote monitoring of glaciation. Appropriate sample included 45 to 66 glaciers located mainly in Eurasia, at mean weighted altitudes Zmed from 520 m to 4253 m above sea level. The existence of close and stable spatial relations AAR = f (Bn) and AAR = f (ELA) (see Table 1) allows, ultimately obtain local or regional estimates of glacier mass balance. In 1957, the area of the moraine on the glaciers of the Pamir was 320 km 2 , or 4.8% of the total area of glaciers in the region, and after ~ 20 years it has increased to 644 km2 or 10.7% [10]. In this paper we used photos of glaciers Medvezhiy and Bivachny in late August 2007 and 2012 from the ISS. Ground resolution is of 3–5 meters. Photos were transformed into WGS projection and tied to a topographic map 1:50 000. Altitudinal interval of moraines propagation on glaciers Medvezhiy and Bivachny in 2007–2012 was equal to, respectively: 3000–5000 and 3400–4800 m above sea level. It was revealed increase of total area of the moraine on these glaciers for the years 1975– 2007. Analysis of the content and quality of the main sources of global and regional information about modern glaciation of the Earth shows that without additional thematic processing they are not suitable for monitoring the dynamics of glaciers in the major river basins and use on a par with the existing data on precipitation, temperature, humidity, cloud cover and other climatic characteristics. Additional processing should be provided to exclude asynchronies in morphometric parameters. This will reduce errors in glaciological interpretation of satellite images and improve the quality of spatial extrapolation of meteorological data. Examples are given of determining the spectral albedo of glacier surface, using ENVI software and remote sensing data from Landsat 7 ETM+ and TERRA. Application of the methods for determining the albedo on the one hand creates additional opportunities for remote monitoring of glaciers, on the other – provides calculation different types of melted glacier surface as a function of absorbed solar radiation.

The work was aimed at numerical modeling of spatial-temporal variability of the river Terek seasonal (April to September) streamflow characteristics and long-term fluctuations of components of annual glacier mass balances in this basin and on the adjacent territories. Mass balance of glaciers Djankuat and Garabashi was calculated. Simulation was performed by means of stochastic modeling and discrete data presenting fields of main meteorological parameters (precipitation, air temperature and humidity) having effect on the streamflow. Realization of this approach is complicated by the fact that spatial representativeness of hydrological and meteorological sites are not corresponding one to another. Data on the runoff is clearly related to the total drainage area closed by a gauging station. And for this data we study a relationship with meteorological parameters which are measured at a non-regular observational network whose spatial representativeness is unknown. These stations are generally located beyond the area under investigation (Fig. 2). Similar problem exists when we analyze a relationship between components of the mass balance of individual glaciers (Djankuat and Garabashi) and the above climate characteristics measured at some stations located on the whole Caucasus territory. The same takes place when long-term indices of width and density of tree annual rings obtained in upper reaches of the river Kuban’ are used for analysis of variations of the runoff and the glacier mass balance in the river Terek basin located at a distance of 100-150 km from the Kuban’ dendrologic sites.To solve the problem we used a wide number of factors which directly (various information about the climate) or indirectly (indices of the climate dryness, wood ring characteristics) characterize conditions of formation of annual and seasonal river runoff and components of glacier mass balance in the North Caucasus. Use of all obtained information made possible the following results: a) new formulas for the calculation of seasonal runoff of the Terek river at the seven gauging stations for 1901–2010 years were derived and verified with independent data; b) significance of various arguments in these formulas was assessed to describe variability of function; c) for the first time relationships between the equilibrium line altitude (ELA), the index of area of accumulation (AAR), and components of the mass balance of the glaciers Djankuat and Garabashi were obtained; d) a technique for regional calculation of average accumulation on these glaciers was developed by using data on ablation and ELA.

The Uragan-3M device is equipped with two antennas which are fed by RF power with the frequency below ion cyclotron. The frame antenna was used for pre-ionization and the three-half turn antenna makes plasma heating. In this experimental series, the radial profiles of C III, O V and C V optical line intensity and the second cyclotron harmonic emission are measured using a pulse-by-pulse technique. The results of these measurements and Biot–Savart calculations of the Uragan-3M magnetic configuration could be explained by the existence of a small central area with relatively high electron temperature and good plasma confinement surrounded by a zone where the electron temperature and confinement are worse. The relatively low average electron temperature and high RF power needed to sustain plasma are the consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]