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We provide an overview of the REF-C1SD specified-dynamics experiment that was conducted as part of phase 1 of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). The REF-C1SD experiment, which consisted of mainly nudged general circulation models (GCMs) constrained with (re)analysis fields, was designed to examine the influence of the large-scale circulation on past trends in atmospheric composition. The REF-C1SD simulations were produced across various model frameworks and are evaluated in terms of how well they represent different measures of the dynamical and transport circulations. In the troposphere there are large (∼40 %) differences in the climatological mean distributions, seasonal cycle amplitude, and trends of the meridional and vertical winds. In the stratosphere there are similarly large (∼50 %) differences in the magnitude, trends and seasonal cycle amplitude of the transformed Eulerian mean circulation and among various chemical and idealized tracers. At the same time, interannual variations in nearly all quantities are very well represented, compared to the underlying reanalyses. We show that the differences in magnitude, trends and seasonal cycle are not related to the use of different reanalysis products; rather, we show they are associated with how the simulations were implemented, by which we refer both to how the large-scale flow was prescribed and to biases in the underlying free-running models. In most cases these differences are shown to be as large or even larger than the differences exhibited by free-running simulations produced using the exact same models, which are also shown to be more dynamically consistent. Overall, our results suggest that care must be taken when using specified-dynamics simulations to examine the influence of large-scale dynamics on composition.

We have derived values of the ultraviolet index (UVI) at solar noon using the Tropospheric Ultraviolet Model (TUV) driven by ozone, temperature and aerosol fields from climate simulations of the first phase of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). Since clouds remain one of the largest uncertainties in climate projections, we simulated only the clear-sky UVI. We compared the modelled UVI climatologies against present-day climatological values of UVI derived from both satellite data (the OMI-Aura OMUVBd product) and ground-based measurements (from the NDACC network). Depending on the region, relative differences between the UVI obtained from CCMI/TUV calculations and the ground-based measurements ranged between −5.9 % and 10.6 %. We then calculated the UVI evolution throughout the 21st century for the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5). Compared to 1960s values, we found an average increase in the UVI in 2100 (of 2 %–4 %) in the tropical belt (30∘ N–30∘ S). For the mid-latitudes, we observed a 1.8 % to 3.4 % increase in the Southern Hemisphere for RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 6.0 and found a 2.3 % decrease in RCP 8.5. Higher increases in UVI are projected in the Northern Hemisphere except for RCP 8.5. At high latitudes, ozone recovery is well identified and induces a complete return of mean UVI levels to 1960 values for RCP 8.5 in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, UVI levels in 2100 are higher by 0.5 % to 5.5 % for RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 6.0 and they are lower by 7.9 % for RCP 8.5. We analysed the impacts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) on UVI from 1960 by comparing CCMI sensitivity simulations (1960–2100) with fixed GHGs or ODSs at their respective 1960 levels. As expected with ODS fixed at their 1960 levels, there is no large decrease in ozone levels and consequently no sudden increase in UVI levels. With fixed GHG, we observed a delayed return of ozone to 1960 values, with a corresponding pattern of change observed on UVI, and looking at the UVI difference between 2090s values and 1960s values, we found an 8 % increase in the tropical belt during the summer of each hemisphere. Finally we show that, while in the Southern Hemisphere the UVI is mainly driven by total ozone column, in the Northern Hemisphere both total ozone column and aerosol optical depth drive UVI levels, with aerosol optical depth having twice as much influence on the UVI as total ozone column does.

Understanding and modeling the large-scale transport of trace gases and aerosols is important for interpreting past (and projecting future) changes in atmospheric composition. Here we show that there are large differences in the global-scale atmospheric transport properties among the models participating in the IGAC SPARC Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). Specifically, we find up to 40 % differences in the transport timescales connecting the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitude surface to the Arctic and to Southern Hemisphere high latitudes, where the mean age ranges between 1.7 and 2.6 years. We show that these differences are related to large differences in vertical transport among the simulations, in particular to differences in parameterized convection over the oceans. While stronger convection over NH midlatitudes is associated with slower transport to the Arctic, stronger convection in the tropics and subtropics is associated with faster interhemispheric transport. We also show that the differences among simulations constrained with fields derived from the same reanalysis products are as large as (and in some cases larger than) the differences among free-running simulations, most likely due to larger differences in parameterized convection. Our results indicate that care must be taken when using simulations constrained with analyzed winds to interpret the influence of meteorology on tropospheric composition.

A representation of atmospheric chemistry has been included in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The new chemistry modules complement the aerosol modules of the IFS for atmospheric composition, which is named C-IFS. C-IFS for chemistry supersedes a coupled system in which chemical transport model (CTM) Model for OZone and Related chemical Tracers 3 was two-way coupled to the IFS (IFS-MOZART). This paper contains a description of the new on-line implementation, an evaluation with observations and a comparison of the performance of C-IFS with MOZART and with a re-analysis of atmospheric composition produced by IFS-MOZART within the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) project. The chemical mechanism of C-IFS is an extended version of the Carbon Bond 2005 (CB05) chemical mechanism as implemented in CTM Transport Model 5 (TM5). CB05 describes tropospheric chemistry with 54 species and 126 reactions. Wet deposition and lightning nitrogen monoxide (NO) emissions are modelled in C-IFS using the detailed input of the IFS physics package. A 1 year simulation by C-IFS, MOZART and the MACC re-analysis is evaluated against ozonesondes, carbon monoxide (CO) aircraft profiles, European surface observations of ozone (O3), CO, sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) as well as satellite retrievals of CO, tropospheric NO2 and formaldehyde. Anthropogenic emissions from the MACC/CityZen (MACCity) inventory and biomass burning emissions from the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) data set were used in the simulations by both C-IFS and MOZART. C-IFS (CB05) showed an improved performance with respect to MOZART for CO, upper tropospheric O3, and wintertime SO2, and was of a similar accuracy for other evaluated species. C-IFS (CB05) is about 10 times more computationally efficient than IFS-MOZART.

The preprocessor PREP-CHEM-SRC presented in the paper is a comprehensive tool aiming at preparing emission fields of trace gases and aerosols for use in atmospheric-chemistry transport models. The considered emissions are from the most recent databases of urban/industrial, biogenic, biomass burning, volcanic, biofuel use and burning from agricultural waste sources. For biomass burning, emissions can be also estimated directly from satellite fire detections using a fire emission model included in the tool. The preprocessor provides emission fields interpolated onto the transport model grid. Several map projections can be chosen. The inclusion of these emissions in transport models is also presented. The preprocessor is coded using Fortran90 and C and is driven by a namelist allowing the user to choose the type of emissions and the databases.

In situ measurements from the In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (IAGOS) are used to characterise extreme values of carbon monoxide (CO) in large regions of the globe in the troposphere between 2002 and 2019. The SOFT-IO model, combining the FLEXPART Lagrangian dispersion model with emission inventories over the footprint region, is used to identify the origins of the CO in the sampled plumes. The impact of biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions on such CO plumes is characterised through CO mixing ratios and simultaneously recorded ozone (O3) ones. In the Northern Hemisphere, CO reaches its maximum values in DJF in the lower troposphere, which can be attributed to elevated anthropogenic emissions and reduced convective activity during the season. Due to the low photochemistry and the fresh age of the air masses, the O3 values of these plumes are low. CO plumes in the upper troposphere (UT) result from intense emissions and efficient vertical transport, peaking during JJA. The largest values of CO in the Northern Hemisphere are found in eastern Asia in the lower troposphere (LT) and middle troposphere (MT) and in Siberia in the upper troposphere. Among the anomalies detected in the upper troposphere in JJA, the ones with higher associated O3 values are the ones associated with biomass-burning emissions. The middle troposphere is a combination of the characteristics of the LT and the UT, with contributions from both local emissions and long-range transport. Among the studied regions, the troposphere above the Middle East and the UT above Siberia presented extremely high O3 values. Indian CO anomalies have different characteristics depending on the season, as the wet and dry phases of the monsoon have a strong impact on the transport of the pollutant in this region. Similarly, the shift in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) strongly impacts the seasonality of the emissions and the transport patterns above Africa. In that region, convection is no longer the limiting factor, and the transport of the CO plumes is driven by the ITCZ shift, trade winds, and the upper branch of the Hadley cell redistributing the pollution to higher latitudes.

Fire is the primary form of terrestrial ecosystem disturbance on a global scale and an important Earth system process. Most Earth system models (ESMs) have incorporated fire modeling, with 19 of them submitting model outputs of fire-related variables to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This study provides the first comprehensive evaluation of CMIP6 historical fire simulations by comparing them with multiple satellite-based products and charcoal-based historical reconstructions. Our results show that most CMIP6 models simulate the present-day global burned area and fire carbon emissions within the range of satellite-based products. They also capture the major features of observed spatial patterns and seasonal cycles, the relationship of fires with precipitation and population density, and the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of tropical fires. Regional fire carbon emissions simulated by the CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2010 generally align with the charcoal-based reconstructions, although there are regional mismatches, such as in southern South America and eastern temperate North America prior to the 1910s and in temperate North America, eastern boreal North America, Europe, and boreal Asia since the 1980s. The CMIP6 simulations have addressed three critical issues identified in CMIP5: (1) the simulated global burned area being less than half of that of the observations, (2) the failure to reproduce the high burned area fraction observed in Africa, and (3) the weak fire seasonal variability. Furthermore, the CMIP6 models exhibit improved accuracy in capturing the observed relationship between fires and both climatic and socioeconomic drivers and better align with the historical long-term trends indicated by charcoal-based reconstructions in most regions worldwide. However, the CMIP6 models still fail to reproduce the decline in global burned area and fire carbon emissions observed over the past 2 decades, mainly attributed to an underestimation of anthropogenic fire suppression, and the spring peak in fires in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, mainly due to an underestimation of crop fires. In addition, the model underestimates the fire sensitivity to wet–dry conditions, indicating the need to improve fuel wetness estimation. Based on these findings, we present specific guidance for fire scheme development and suggest a post-processing methodology for using CMIP6 multi-model outputs to generate reliable fire projection products.

Volcanoes are known to be important emitters of atmospheric gases and aerosols, which for certain volcanoes can include halogen gases and in particular HBr. HBr emitted in this way can undergo rapid atmospheric oxidation chemistry (known as the bromine explosion) within the volcanic emission plume, leading to the production of bromine oxide (BrO) and ozone depletion. In this work, we present the results of a modelling study of a volcanic eruption from Mt Etna that occurred around Christmas 2018 and lasted 6 d. The aims of this study are to demonstrate and evaluate the ability of the regional 3D chemistry transport model Modèle de Chimie Atmosphérique de Grande Echelle (MOCAGE) to simulate the volcanic halogen chemistry in this case study, to analyse the variability of the chemical processes during the plume transport, and to quantify its impact on the composition of the troposphere at a regional scale over the Mediterranean basin. The comparison of the tropospheric SO2 and BrO columns from 25 to 30 December 2018 from the MOCAGE simulation with the columns derived from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) satellite measurements shows a very good agreement for the transport of the plume and a good consistency for the concentrations if considering the uncertainties in the flux estimates and the TROPOMI columns. The analysis of the bromine species' partitioning and of the associated chemical reaction rates provides a detailed picture of the simulated bromine chemistry throughout the diurnal cycle and at different stages of the volcanic plume's evolution. The partitioning of the bromine species is modulated by the time evolution of the emissions during the 6 d of the eruption; by the meteorological conditions; and by the distance of the plume from the vent, which is equivalent to the time since the emission. As the plume travels further from the vent, the halogen source gas HBr becomes depleted, BrO production in the plume becomes less efficient, and ozone depletion (proceeding via the Br+O3 reaction followed by the BrO self-reaction) decreases. The depletion of HBr relative to the other prevalent hydracid HCl leads to a shift in the relative concentrations of the Br− and Cl− ions, which in turn leads to reduced production of Br2 relative to BrCl. The MOCAGE simulations show a regional impact of the volcanic eruption on the oxidants OH and O3 with a reduced burden of both gases that is caused by the chemistry in the volcanic plume. This reduction in atmospheric oxidation capacity results in a reduced CH4 burden. Finally, sensitivity tests on the composition of the emissions carried out in this work show that the production of BrO is higher when the volcanic emissions of sulfate aerosols are increased but occurs very slowly when no sulfate and Br radicals are assumed to be in the emissions. Both sensitivity tests highlight a significant impact on the oxidants in the troposphere at the regional scale of these assumptions. All the results of this modelling study, in particular the rapid formation of BrO, which leads to a significant loss of tropospheric ozone, are consistent with previous studies carried out on the modelling of volcanic halogens.

HBr emissions from volcanoes lead rapidly to the formation of BrO within volcanic plumes and have an impact on tropospheric chemistry, at least at the local and regional scales. The motivation of this paper is to prepare a framework for further 3D modelling of volcanic halogen emissions in order to determine their fate within the volcanic plume and then in the atmosphere at the regional and global scales. The main aim is to evaluate the ability of the model to produce a realistic partitioning of bromine species within a grid box size typical of MOCAGE (Model Of atmospheric Chemistry At larGE scale) 3D (0.5∘ × 0.5∘). This work is based on a 1D single-column configuration of the global chemistry-transport model MOCAGE that has low enough computational cost to allow us to perform a large set of sensitivity simulations. This paper uses the emissions from the Mount Etna eruption on 10 May 2008. Several reactions are added to MOCAGE to represent the volcanic plume halogen chemistry. A simple plume parameterisation is also implemented and tested. The use of this parameterisation tends to only slightly limit the efficiency of BrO net production. Both simulations with and without the parameterisation give results for the partitioning of the bromine species, of ozone depletion and of the BrO/SO2 ratio that are consistent with previous studies. A series of test experiments were performed to evaluate the sensitivity of the results to the composition of the emissions (primary sulfate aerosols, Br radical and NO) and to the effective radius assumed for the volcanic sulfate aerosols. Simulations show that the plume chemistry is sensitive to all these parameters. We also find that the maximum altitude of the eruption changes the BrO production, which is linked to the vertical variability of the concentrations of oxidants in the background air. These sensitivity tests display changes in the bromine chemistry cycles that are generally at least as important as the plume parameterisation. Overall, the version of the MOCAGE chemistry developed for this study is suitable to produce the expected halogen chemistry in volcanic plumes during daytime and night-time.

The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) provides routine analyses and forecasts of trace gases and aerosols on a global scale. The core is the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS), where modules for atmospheric chemistry and aerosols have been introduced and which allows for data assimilation of satellite retrievals of composition. We have updated both the homogeneous and heterogeneous NOx chemistry applied in the three independent tropospheric–stratospheric chemistry modules maintained within CAMS, referred to as IFS(CB05BASCOE), IFS(MOCAGE) and IFS(MOZART). Here we focus on the evaluation of main trace gas products from these modules that are of interest as markers of air quality, namely lower-tropospheric O3, NO2 and CO, with a regional focus over the contiguous United States. Evaluation against lower-tropospheric composition reveals overall good performance, with chemically induced biases within 10 ppb across species for regions within the US with respect to a range of observations. The versions show overall equal or better performance than the CAMS reanalysis, which includes data assimilation. Evaluation of surface air quality aspects shows that annual cycles are captured well, albeit with variable seasonal biases. During wintertime conditions there is a large model spread between chemistry schemes in lower-tropospheric O3 (∼ 10 %–35 %) and, in turn, oxidative capacity related to NOx lifetime differences. Analysis of differences in the HNO3 and PAN formation, which act as reservoirs for reactive nitrogen, revealed a general underestimate in PAN formation over polluted regions, likely due to too low organic precursors. Particularly during wintertime, the fraction of NO2 sequestered into PAN has a variability of 100 % across chemistry modules, indicating the need for further constraints. Notably, a considerable uncertainty in HNO3 formation associated with wintertime N2O5 conversion on wet particle surfaces remains. In summary, this study has indicated that the chemically induced differences in the quality of CAMS forecast products over the United States depends on season, trace gas, altitude and region. While analysis of the three chemistry modules in CAMS provide a strong handle on uncertainties associated with chemistry modeling, the further improvement of operational products additionally requires coordinated development involving emissions handling, chemistry and aerosol modeling, complemented with data-assimilation efforts.

Deep convection overshooting the lowermost stratosphere is well known for its role in the local stratospheric water vapour (WV) budget. While it is seldom the case, local enhancement of WV associated with stratospheric overshoots is often published. Nevertheless, one debatable topic persists regarding the global impact of this event with respect to the temperature-driven dehydration of air parcels entering the stratosphere. As a first step, it is critical to quantify their role at a cloud-resolving scale before assessing their impact on a large scale in a climate model. It would lead to a nudging scheme for large-scale simulation of overshoots. This paper reports on the local enhancements of WV linked to stratospheric overshoots, observed during the TRO-Pico campaign conducted in March 2012 in Bauru, Brazil, using the BRAMS (Brazilian version of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System; RAMS) mesoscale model. Since numerical simulations depend on the choice of several preferred parameters, each having its uncertainties, we vary the microphysics or the vertical resolution while simulating the overshoots. Thus, we produce a set of simulations illustrating the possible variations in representing the stratospheric overshoots. To better resolve the stratospheric hydration, we opt for simulations with the 800 m horizontal-grid-point presentation. Next, we validate these simulations against the Bauru S-band radar echo tops and the TRO-Pico balloon-borne observations of WV and particles. Two of the three simulations' setups yield results compatible with the TRO-Pico observations. From these two simulations, we determine approximately 333–2000 t of WV mass prevailing in the stratosphere due to an overshooting plume depending on the simulation setup. About 70 % of the ice mass remains between the 380 and 385 K isentropic levels. The overshooting top comprises pristine ice and snow, while aggregates only play a role just above the tropopause. Interestingly, the horizontal cross section of the overshooting top is about 450 km2 at the 380 K isentrope, which is similar to the horizontal-grid-point resolution of a simulation that cannot compute overshoots explicitly. In a large-scale simulation, these findings could provide guidance for a nudging scheme of overshooting hydration or dehydration.

This paper presents a modelling study on the fate of CHBr3 and its product gases in the troposphere within the context of tropical deep convection. A cloud-scale case study was conducted along the west coast of Borneo, where several deep convective systems were triggered on the afternoon and early evening of 19 November 2011. These systems were sampled by the Falcon aircraft during the field campaign of the SHIVA project and analysed using a simulation with the cloud-resolving meteorological model C-CATT-BRAMS at 2×2 km resolution that represents the emissions, transport by large-scale flow, convection, photochemistry, and washout of CHBr3 and its product gases (PGs). We find that simulated CHBr3 mixing ratios and the observed values in the boundary layer and the outflow of the convective systems agree. However, the model underestimates the background CHBr3 mixing ratios in the upper troposphere, which suggests a missing source at the regional scale. An analysis of the simulated chemical speciation of bromine within and around each simulated convective system during the mature convective stage reveals that >85 % of the bromine derived from CHBr3 and its PGs is transported vertically to the point of convective detrainment in the form of CHBr3 and that the remaining small fraction is in the form of organic PGs, principally insoluble brominated carbonyls produced from the photo-oxidation of CHBr3. The model simulates that within the boundary layer and free troposphere, the inorganic PGs are only present in soluble forms, i.e. HBr, HOBr, and BrONO2, and, consequently, within the convective clouds, the inorganic PGs are almost entirely removed by wet scavenging. We find that HBr is the most abundant PG in background lower-tropospheric air and that this prevalence of HBr is a result of the relatively low background tropospheric ozone levels at the regional scale. Contrary to a previous study in a different environment, for the conditions in the simulation, the insoluble Br2 species is hardly formed within the convective systems and therefore plays no significant role in the vertical transport of bromine. This likely results from the relatively small quantities of simulated inorganic bromine involved, the presence of HBr in large excess compared to HOBr and BrO, and the relatively efficient removal of soluble compounds within the convective column.

Well constrained volcanic emissions inventories in chemistry transport models are necessary to study the impacts induced by these sources on the tropospheric sulfur composition and on sulfur species concentrations and depositions at the surface. In this paper, the changes induced by the update of the volcanic sulfur emissions inventory are studied using the global chemistry transport model MOCAGE (MOdèle de Chimie Atmosphérique à Grande Échelle). Unlike the previous inventory (Andres and Kasgnoc, 1998), the updated one (Carn et al., 2016, 2017) uses more accurate information and includes contributions from both passive degassing and eruptive emissions. Eruptions are provided as daily total amounts of sulfur dioxide (SO2) emitted by volcanoes in the Carn et al. (2016, 2017) inventories, and degassing emissions are provided as annual averages with the related mean annual uncertainties of those emissions by volcano. Information on plume altitudes is also available and has been used in the model. We chose to analyze the year 2013, for which only a negligible amount of eruptive volcanic SO2 emissions is reported, allowing us to focus the study on the impact of passive degassing emissions on the tropospheric sulfur budget. An evaluation against the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) SO2 total column and MODIS (Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations shows the improvements of the model results with the updated inventory. Because the global volcanic SO2 flux changes from 13 Tg yr−1 in Andres and Kasgnoc (1998) to 23.6 Tg yr−1 in Carn et al. (2016, 2017), significant differences appear in the global sulfur budget, mainly in the free troposphere and in the tropics. Even though volcanic SO2 emissions represent 15 % of the total annual sulfur emissions, the volcanic contribution to the tropospheric sulfate aerosol burden is 25 %, which is due to the higher altitude of emissions from volcanoes. Moreover, a sensitivity study on passive degassing emissions, using the annual uncertainties of emissions per volcano, also confirmed the nonlinear link between tropospheric sulfur species content with respect to volcanic SO2 emissions. This study highlights the need for accurate estimates of volcanic sources in chemistry transport models in order to properly simulate tropospheric sulfur species.

A wide variety of observation data sets are used to assess long-term simulations provided by chemistry–climate models (CCMs) and chemistry-transport models (CTMs). However, the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere (UTLS) has hardly been assessed in these modelling exercises yet. Observations performed in the framework of IAGOS (In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System) combine the advantages of in situ airborne measurements in the UTLS with an almost-global-scale sampling, a ∼20-year monitoring period and a high frequency. Even though a few model assessments have been made using the IAGOS database, none of them took advantage of the dense and high-resolution cruise data in their whole ensemble yet. The present study proposes a method to compare this large IAGOS data set to long-term simulations used for chemistry–climate studies. As a first application, the REF-C1SD reference simulation generated by the MOCAGE (MOdèle de Chimie Atmosphérique à Grande Echelle) CTM in the framework of Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) phase I has been evaluated during the 1994–2013 period for ozone (O3) and the 2002–2013 period for carbon monoxide (CO). The concept of the new comparison software proposed here (so-called Interpol-IAGOS) is to project all IAGOS data onto the 3-D grid of the model with a monthly resolution, since generally the 3-D outputs provided by chemistry–climate models for multi-model comparisons on multi-decadal timescales are archived as monthly means. This provides a new IAGOS data set (IAGOS-DM) mapped onto the model's grid and time resolution. To get a model data set consistent with IAGOS-DM for the comparison, a subset of the model's outputs is created (MOCAGE-M) by applying a mask that retains only the model data at the available IAGOS-DM grid points. Climatologies are derived from the IAGOS-DM product, and good correlations are reported between with the MOCAGE-M spatial distributions. As an attempt to analyse MOCAGE-M behaviour in the upper troposphere (UT) and the lower stratosphere (LS) separately, UT and LS data in IAGOS-DM were sorted according to potential vorticity. From this, we derived O3 and CO seasonal cycles in eight regions well sampled by IAGOS flights in the northern midlatitudes. They are remarkably well reproduced by the model for lower-stratospheric O3 and also good for upper-tropospheric CO. Along this model evaluation, we also assess the differences caused by the use of a weighting function in the method when projecting the IAGOS data onto the model grid compared to the scores derived in a simplified way. We conclude that the data projection onto the model's grid allows us to filter out biases arising from either spatial or temporal resolution, and the use of a weighting function yields different results, here by enhancing the assessment scores. Beyond the MOCAGE REF-C1SD evaluation presented in this paper, the method could be used by CCMI models for individual assessments in the UTLS and for model intercomparisons with respect to the IAGOS data set.

This paper presents the first results about the assimilation of CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) extinction coefficient measurements onboard the CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) satellite in the MOCAGE (MOdèle de Chimie Atmosphérique à Grande Echelle) chemistry transport model of Météo-France. This assimilation module is an extension of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) assimilation system already presented by Sič et al. (2016). We focus on the period of the TRAQA (TRAnsport à longue distance et Qualité de l’Air dans le bassin méditerranéen) field campaign that took place during summer 2012. This period offers the opportunity to have access to a large set of aerosol observations from instrumented aircraft, balloons, satellite and ground-based stations. We evaluate the added value of CALIOP assimilation with respect to the model free run by comparing both fields to independent observations issued from the TRAQA field campaign. In this study we focus on the desert dust outbreak which happened during late June 2012 over the Mediterranean Basin (MB) during the TRAQA campaign. The comparison with the AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network) AOD measurements shows that the assimilation of CALIOP lidar observations improves the statistics compared to the model free run. The correlation between AERONET and the model (assimilation) is 0.682 (0.753); the bias and the root mean square error (RMSE), due to CALIOP assimilation, are reduced from −0.063 to 0.048 and from 0.183 to 0.148, respectively. Compared to MODIS (Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) AOD observations, the model free run shows an underestimation of the AOD values, whereas the CALIOP assimilation corrects this underestimation and shows a quantitative good improvement in terms of AOD maps over the MB. The correlation between MODIS and the model (assimilation) during the dust outbreak is 0.47 (0.52), whereas the bias is −0.18 (−0.02) and the RMSE is 0.36 (0.30). The comparison of in situ aircraft and balloon measurements to both modelled and assimilated outputs shows that the CALIOP lidar assimilation highly improves the model aerosol field. The evaluation with the LOAC (Light Optical Particle Counter) measurements indicates that the aerosol vertical profiles are well simulated by the direct model but with a general underestimation of the aerosol number concentration, especially in the altitude range 2–5 km. The CALIOP assimilation improves these results by a factor of 2.5 to 5. Analysis of the vertical distribution of the desert aerosol concentration shows that the aerosol dust transport event is well captured by the model but with an underestimated intensity. The assimilation of CALIOP observations allows the improvement of the geographical representation of the event within the model as well as its intensity by a factor of 2 in the altitude range 1–5 km.

In this paper, the fate of biomass burning emissions of carbon monoxide is studied with the global chemistry–transport model MOCAGE (MOdélisation de Chimie Atmosphérique à Grande Échelle) and IAGOS (In-Service Aircraft for a Global Observing System) airborne measurements for the year 2013. The objectives are firstly to improve their representation within the model and secondly to analyse their contribution to carbon monoxide concentrations in the upper troposphere. At first, a new implementation of biomass burning injection is developed for MOCAGE, using the latest products available in Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) biomass burning inventory on plume altitude and injection height. This method is validated against IAGOS observations of CO made in fire plumes, identified thanks to the SOFT-IO source attribution data. The use of these GFAS products leads to improved MOCAGE skill to simulate fire plumes originating from boreal forest wildfires. It is also shown that this new biomass burning injection method modifies the distribution of carbon monoxide in the free and upper troposphere, mostly at northern boreal latitudes. Then, MOCAGE performance is evaluated in general in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in comparison to the IAGOS observations and is shown to be very good, with very low bias and good correlations between the model and the observations. Finally, we analyse the contribution of biomass burning to upper tropospheric carbon monoxide concentrations. This is done by comparing simulations where biomass are toggled on and off in different source regions of the world to assess their individual influence. The two regions contributing the most to upper tropospheric CO are found to be the boreal forests and equatorial Africa, in accordance with the quantities of CO they emit each year and the fact that they undergo fast vertical transport: deep convection in the tropics and pyroconvection at high latitudes. It is also found that biomass burning contributes more than 11 % on average to the CO concentrations in the upper troposphere and up to 50 % at high latitudes during the wildfire season.

The Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) is an essential instrument for numerical weather prediction (NWP). It measures radiances at the top of the atmosphere using 8461 channels. The huge amount of observations provided by IASI has led the community to develop techniques to reduce observations while conserving as much information as possible. Thus, a selection of the 300 most informative channels was made for NWP based on the concept of information theory. One of the main limitations of this method was to neglect the covariances between the observation errors of the different channels. However, many centres have shown a significant benefit for weather forecasting to use them. Currently, the observation-error covariances are only estimated on the current IASI channel selection, but no studies to make a new selection of IASI channels taking into account the observation-error covariances have yet been carried out. The objective of this paper was therefore to perform a new selection of IASI channels by taking into account the observation-error covariances. The results show that with an equivalent number of channels, accounting for the observation-error covariances, a new selection of IASI channels can reduce the analysis error on average in temperature by 3 %, humidity by 1.8 % and ozone by 0.9 % compared to the current selection. Finally, we go one step further by proposing a robust new selection of 400 IASI channels to further reduce the analysis error for NWP.

Multi-axis differential optical absorption spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS) tropospheric NO2 column retrievals from four European measurement stations are compared to simulations from five regional air quality models which contribute to the European regional ensemble forecasts and reanalyses of the operational Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). Compared to other observational data usually applied for regional model evaluation, MAX-DOAS data are closer to the regional model data in terms of horizontal and vertical resolution, and multiple measurements are available during daylight, so that, for example, diurnal cycles of trace gases can be investigated. In general, there is good agreement between simulated and retrieved NO2 column values for individual MAX-DOAS measurements with correlations between 35 % and 70 % for individual models and 45 % to 75 % for the ensemble median for tropospheric NO2 vertical column densities (VCDs), indicating that emissions, transport and tropospheric chemistry of NOx are on average well simulated. However, large differences are found for individual pollution plumes observed by MAX-DOAS. Most of the models overestimate seasonal cycles for the majority of MAX-DOAS sites investigated. At the urban stations, weekly cycles are reproduced well, but the decrease towards the weekend is underestimated and diurnal cycles are overall not well represented. In particular, simulated morning rush hour peaks are not confirmed by MAX-DOAS retrievals, and models fail to reproduce observed changes in diurnal cycles for weekdays versus weekends. The results of this study show that future model development needs to concentrate on improving representation of diurnal cycles and associated temporal scalings.

The hydroxyl radical (OH) plays critical roles within the troposphere, such as determining the lifetime of methane (CH4), yet is challenging to model due to its fast cycling and dependence on a multitude of sources and sinks. As a result, the reasons for variations in OH and the resulting methane lifetime (τCH4), both between models and in time, are difficult to diagnose. We apply a neural network (NN) approach to address this issue within a group of models that participated in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). Analysis of the historical specified dynamics simulations performed for CCMI indicates that the primary drivers of τCH4 differences among 10 models are the flux of UV light to the troposphere (indicated by the photolysis frequency JO1D), the mixing ratio of tropospheric ozone (O3), the abundance of nitrogen oxides (NOx≡NO+NO2), and details of the various chemical mechanisms that drive OH. Water vapour, carbon monoxide (CO), the ratio of NO:NOx, and formaldehyde (HCHO) explain moderate differences in τCH4, while isoprene, methane, the photolysis frequency of NO2 by visible light (JNO2), overhead ozone column, and temperature account for little to no model variation in τCH4. We also apply the NNs to analysis of temporal trends in OH from 1980 to 2015. All models that participated in the specified dynamics historical simulation for CCMI demonstrate a decline in τCH4 during the analysed timeframe. The significant contributors to this trend, in order of importance, are tropospheric O3, JO1D, NOx, and H2O, with CO also causing substantial interannual variability in OH burden. Finally, the identified trends in τCH4 are compared to calculated trends in the tropospheric mean OH concentration from previous work, based on analysis of observations. The comparison reveals a robust result for the effect of rising water vapour on OH and τCH4, imparting an increasing and decreasing trend of about 0.5 % decade−1, respectively. The responses due to NOx, ozone column, and temperature are also in reasonably good agreement between the two studies.

The modeling study presented here aims to estimate how uncertainties in global hydroxyl radical (OH) distributions, variability, and trends may contribute to resolving discrepancies between simulated and observed methane (CH4) changes since 2000. A multi-model ensemble of 14 OH fields was analyzed and aggregated into 64 scenarios to force the offline atmospheric chemistry transport model LMDz (Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique) with a standard CH4 emission scenario over the period 2000–2016. The multi-model simulated global volume-weighted tropospheric mean OH concentration ([OH]) averaged over 2000–2010 ranges between 8.7×105 and 12.8×105 molec cm−3. The inter-model differences in tropospheric OH burden and vertical distributions are mainly determined by the differences in the nitrogen oxide (NO) distributions, while the spatial discrepancies between OH fields are mostly due to differences in natural emissions and volatile organic compound (VOC) chemistry. From 2000 to 2010, most simulated OH fields show an increase of 0.1–0.3×105 molec cm−3 in the tropospheric mean [OH], with year-to-year variations much smaller than during the historical period 1960–2000. Once ingested into the LMDz model, these OH changes translated into a 5 to 15 ppbv reduction in the CH4 mixing ratio in 2010, which represents 7 %–20 % of the model-simulated CH4 increase due to surface emissions. Between 2010 and 2016, the ensemble of simulations showed that OH changes could lead to a CH4 mixing ratio uncertainty of >±30 ppbv. Over the full 2000–2016 time period, using a common state-of-the-art but nonoptimized emission scenario, the impact of [OH] changes tested here can explain up to 54 % of the gap between model simulations and observations. This result emphasizes the importance of better representing OH abundance and variations in CH4 forward simulations and emission optimizations performed by atmospheric inversions.

We report on an evaluation of tropospheric ozone and its precursor gases in three atmospheric chemistry versions as implemented in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), referred to as IFS(CB05BASCOE), IFS(MOZART) and IFS(MOCAGE). While the model versions were forced with the same overall meteorology, emissions, transport and deposition schemes, they vary largely in their parameterisations describing atmospheric chemistry, including the organics degradation, heterogeneous chemistry and photolysis, as well as chemical solver. The model results from the three chemistry versions are compared against a range of aircraft field campaigns, surface observations, ozone-sondes and satellite observations, which provides quantification of the overall model uncertainty driven by the chemistry parameterisations. We find that they produce similar patterns and magnitudes for carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3), as well as a range of non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs), with averaged differences for O3 (CO) within 10 % (20 %) throughout the troposphere. Most of the divergence in the magnitude of CO and NMHCs can be explained by differences in OH concentrations, which can reach up to 50 %, particularly at high latitudes. There are also comparatively large discrepancies between model versions for NO2, SO2 and HNO3, which are strongly influenced by secondary chemical production and loss. Other common biases in CO and NMHCs are mainly attributed to uncertainties in their emissions. This configuration of having various chemistry versions within IFS provides a quantification of uncertainties induced by chemistry modelling in the main CAMS global trace gas products beyond those that are constrained by data assimilation.

We have developed a new statistical approach (M3Fusion) for combining surface ozone observations from thousands of monitoring sites around the world with the output from multiple atmospheric chemistry models to produce a global surface ozone distribution with greater accuracy than can be provided by any individual model. The ozone observations from 4766 monitoring sites were provided by the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) surface ozone database, which contains the world's largest collection of surface ozone metrics. Output from six models was provided by the participants of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) and NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). We analyze the 6-month maximum of the maximum daily 8 h average ozone value (DMA8) for relevance to ozone health impacts. We interpolate the irregularly spaced observations onto a fine-resolution grid by using integrated nested Laplace approximations and compare the ozone field to each model in each world region. This method allows us to produce a global surface ozone field based on TOAR observations, which we then use to select the combination of global models with the greatest skill in each of eight world regions; models with greater skill in a particular region are given higher weight. This blended model product is bias corrected within 2∘ of observation locations to produce the final fused surface ozone product. We show that our fused product has an improved mean squared error compared to the simple multi-model ensemble mean, which is biased high in most regions of the world.

The study assesses the possible benefit of assimilating aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the future space-borne sensor FCI (Flexible Combined Imager) for air quality monitoring in Europe. An observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) was designed and applied over a 4-month period, which includes a severe-pollution episode. The study focuses on the FCI channel centred at 444 nm, which is the shortest wavelength of FCI. A nature run (NR) and four different control runs of the MOCAGE chemistry transport model were designed and evaluated to guarantee the robustness of the OSSE results. The synthetic AOD observations from the NR were disturbed by errors that are typical of the FCI. The variance of the FCI AOD at 444 nm was deduced from a global sensitivity analysis that took into account the aerosol type, surface reflectance and different atmospheric optical properties. The experiments show a general benefit to all statistical indicators of the assimilation of the FCI AOD at 444 nm for aerosol concentrations at the surface over Europe, and also a positive impact during the severe-pollution event. The simulations with data assimilation reproduced spatial and temporal patterns of PM10 concentrations at the surface better than those without assimilation all along the simulations and especially during the pollution event. The advantage of assimilating AODs from a geostationary platform over a low Earth orbit satellite has also been quantified. This work demonstrates the capability of data from the future FCI sensor to bring added value to the MOCAGE aerosol simulations, and in general, to other chemistry transport models.

>We analyse simulations performed for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion caused by anthropogenic stratospheric chlorine and bromine. We consider a total of 155 simulations from 20 models, including a range of sensitivity studies which examine the impact of climate change on ozone recovery. For the control simulations (unconstrained by nudging towards analysed meteorology) there is a large spread (±20 DU in the global average) in the predictions of the absolute ozone column. Therefore, the model results need to be adjusted for biases against historical data. Also, the interannual variability in the model results need to be smoothed in order to provide a reasonably narrow estimate of the range of ozone return dates. Consistent with previous studies, but here for a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of 6.0, these new CCMI simulations project that global total column ozone will return to 1980 values in 2049 (with a 1σ uncertainty of 2043–2055). At Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values in 2045 (2039–2050), and at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in 2032 (2020–2044). In the polar regions, the return dates are 2060 (2055–2066) in the Antarctic in October and 2034 (2025–2043) in the Arctic in March. The earlier return dates in the Northern Hemisphere reflect the larger sensitivity to dynamical changes. Our estimates of return dates are later than those presented in the 2014 Ozone Assessment by approximately 5–17 years, depending on the region, with the previous best estimates often falling outside of our uncertainty range. In the tropics only around half the models predict a return of ozone to 1980 values, around 2040, while the other half do not reach the 1980 value. All models show a negative trend in tropical total column ozone towards the end of the 21st century. The CCMI models generally agree in their simulation of the time evolution of stratospheric chlorine and bromine, which are the main drivers of ozone loss and recovery. However, there are a few outliers which show that the multi-model mean results for ozone recovery are not as tightly constrained as possible. Throughout the stratosphere the spread of ozone return dates to 1980 values between models tends to correlate with the spread of the return of inorganic chlorine to 1980 values. In the upper stratosphere, greenhouse gas-induced cooling speeds up the return by about 10–20 years. In the lower stratosphere, and for the column, there is a more direct link in the timing of the return dates of ozone and chlorine, especially for the large Antarctic depletion. Comparisons of total column ozone between the models is affected by different predictions of the evolution of tropospheric ozone within the same scenario, presumably due to differing treatment of tropospheric chemistry. Therefore, for many scenarios, clear conclusions can only be drawn for stratospheric ozone columns rather than the total column. As noted by previous studies, the timing of ozone recovery is affected by the evolution of N2O and CH4. However, quantifying the effect in the simulations analysed here is limited by the few realisations available for these experiments compared to internal model variability. The large increase in N2O given in RCP 6.0 extends the ozone return globally by ∼ 15 years relative to N2O fixed at 1960 abundances, mainly because it allows tropical column ozone to be depleted. The effect in extratropical latitudes is much smaller. The large increase in CH4 given in the RCP 8.5 scenario compared to RCP 6.0 also lengthens ozone return by ∼ 15 years, again mainly through its impact in the tropics. Overall, our estimates of ozone return dates are uncertain due to both uncertainties in future scenarios, in particular those of greenhouse gases, and uncertainties in models. The scenario uncertainty is small in the short term but increases with time, and becomes large by the end of the century. There are still some model–model differences related to well-known processes which affect ozone recovery. Efforts need to continue to ensure that models used for assessment purposes accurately represent stratospheric chemistry and the prescribed scenarios of ozone-depleting substances, and only those models are used to calculate return dates. For future assessments of single forcing or combined effects of CO2, CH4, and N2O on the stratospheric column ozone return dates, this work suggests that it is more important to have multi-member (at least three) ensembles for each scenario from every established participating model, rather than a large number of individual models.

The Gradient in Longitude of Atmospheric constituents above the Mediterranean basin (GLAM) campaign was set up in August 2014, as part of the Chemistry and Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment (ChArMEx) project. This campaign aimed to study the chemical variability of gaseous pollutants and aerosols in the troposphere along a west–east transect above the Mediterranean Basin (MB). In the present work, we focus on two biomass burning events detected at 5.4 and 9.7 km altitude above sea level (a.s.l.) over Sardinia (from 39°12′ N–9°15′ E to 35°35′ N–12°35′ E and at 39°30′ N–8°25′ E, respectively). Concentration variations in trace gas carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3) and aerosols were measured thanks to the standard instruments on board the Falcon 20 aircraft operated by the Service des Avions Français Instrumentés pour la Recherche en Environnement (SAFIRE) and the Spectromètre InfraRouge In situ Toute Altitude (SPIRIT) developed by LPC2E. Twenty-day backward trajectories with Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART (FLEXible PARTicle) help to understand the transport processes and the origin of the emissions that contributed to this pollution detected above Sardinia. Biomass burning emissions came (i) on 10 August from the North American continent with air masses transported during 5 days before arriving over the MB, and (ii) on 6 August from Siberia, with air masses travelling during 12 days and enriched in fire emission products above Canada 5 days before arriving over the MB. In combination with the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) inventory and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite fire locations, FLEXPART reproduces well the contribution of those fires to CO and aerosols enhancements under adjustments of the injection height to 10 km in both cases and application of an amplification factor of 2 on CO GFAS emissions for the 10 August event. The chemistry transport model (CTM) MOCAGE is used as a complementary tool for the case of 6 August to confirm the origin of the emissions by tracing the CO global atmospheric composition reaching the MB. For this event, both models agree on the origin of air masses with CO concentrations simulated with MOCAGE lower than the observed ones, likely caused by the coarse model horizontal resolution that yields the dilution of the emissions and diffusion during transport. In combination with wind fields, the analysis of the transport of the air mass documented on 6 August suggests the subsidence of CO pollution from Siberia towards North America and then a transport to the MB via fast jet winds located at around 5.5 km in altitude. Finally, using the ratio ΔO3 ∕ ΔCO, the plume age can be estimated and the production of O3 during the transport of the air mass is studied using the MOCAGE model.

In situ measurements in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere (UTLS) have been performed in the framework of the European research infrastructure IAGOS (In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System) for ozone since 1994 and for carbon monoxide (CO) since 2002. The flight tracks cover a wide range of longitudes in the northern extratropics, extending from the North American western coast (125° W) to the eastern Asian coast (135° E) and more recently over the northern Pacific Ocean. Several tropical regions are also sampled frequently, such as the Brazilian coast, central and southern Africa, southeastern Asia, and the western half of the Maritime Continent. As a result, a new set of climatologies for O3 (August 1994–December 2013) and CO (December 2001–December 2013) in the upper troposphere (UT), tropopause layer, and lower stratosphere (LS) are made available, including gridded horizontal distributions on a semi-global scale and seasonal cycles over eight well-sampled regions of interest in the northern extratropics. The seasonal cycles generally show a summertime maximum in O3 and a springtime maximum in CO in the UT, in contrast to the systematic springtime maximum in O3 and the quasi-absence of a seasonal cycle of CO in the LS. This study highlights some regional variabilities in the UT, notably (i) a west–east difference of O3 in boreal summer with up to 15 ppb more O3 over central Russia compared with northeast America, (ii) a systematic west–east gradient of CO from 60 to 140° E, especially noticeable in spring and summer with about 5 ppb by 10 degrees longitude, (iii) a broad spring/summer maximum of CO over northeast Asia, and (iv) a spring maximum of O3 over western North America. Thanks to almost 20 years of O3 and 12 years of CO measurements, the IAGOS database is a unique data set to derive trends in the UTLS at northern midlatitudes. Trends in O3 in the UT are positive and statistically significant in most regions, ranging from +0.25 to +0.45 ppb yr−1, characterized by the significant increase in the lowest values of the distribution. No significant trends of O3 are detected in the LS. Trends of CO in the UT, tropopause, and LS are almost all negative and statistically significant. The estimated slopes range from −1.37 to −0.59 ppb yr−1, with a nearly homogeneous decrease in the lowest values of the monthly distribution (5th percentile) contrasting with the high interregional variability in the decrease in the highest values (95th percentile).

In the frame of the Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment (ChArMEx), we analyse the budget of primary aerosols and secondary inorganic aerosols over the Mediterranean Basin during the years 2012 and 2013. To do this, we use two year-long numerical simulations with the chemistry-transport model MOCAGE validated against satellite- and ground-based measurements. The budget is presented on an annual and a monthly basis on a domain covering 29 to 47° N latitude and 10° W to 38° E longitude. The years 2012 and 2013 show similar seasonal variations. The desert dust is the main contributor to the annual aerosol burden in the Mediterranean region with a peak in spring, and sea salt being the second most important contributor. The secondary inorganic aerosols, taken as a whole, contribute a similar level to sea salt. The results show that all of the considered aerosol types, except for sea salt aerosols, experience net export out of our Mediterranean Basin model domain, and thus this area should be considered as a source region for aerosols globally. Our study showed that 11 % of the desert dust, 22.8 to 39.5 % of the carbonaceous aerosols, 35 % of the sulfate and 9 % of the ammonium emitted or produced into the study domain are exported. The main sources of variability for aerosols between 2012 and 2013 are weather-related variations, acting on emissions processes, and the episodic import of aerosols from North American fires. In order to assess the importance of the anthropogenic emissions of the marine and the coastal areas which are central for the economy of the Mediterranean Basin, we made a sensitivity test simulation. This simulation is similar to the reference simulation but with the removal of the international shipping emissions and the anthropogenic emissions over a 50 km wide band inland along the coast. We showed that around 30 % of the emissions of carbonaceous aerosols and 35 to 60 % of the exported carbonaceous aerosols originates from the marine and coastal areas. The formation of 23, 27 and 27 %, respectively of, ammonium, nitrate and sulfate aerosols is due to the emissions within the marine and coastal area.

We present an overview of state-of-the-art chemistry–climate and chemistry transport models that are used within phase 1 of the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). The CCMI aims to conduct a detailed evaluation of participating models using process-oriented diagnostics derived from observations in order to gain confidence in the models' projections of the stratospheric ozone layer, tropospheric composition, air quality, where applicable global climate change, and the interactions between them. Interpretation of these diagnostics requires detailed knowledge of the radiative, chemical, dynamical, and physical processes incorporated in the models. Also an understanding of the degree to which CCMI-1 recommendations for simulations have been followed is necessary to understand model responses to anthropogenic and natural forcing and also to explain inter-model differences. This becomes even more important given the ongoing development and the ever-growing complexity of these models. This paper also provides an overview of the available CCMI-1 simulations with the aim of informing CCMI data users.

In this study, we describe the development of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) assimilation module in the chemistry transport model (CTM) MOCAGE (Modèle de Chimie Atmosphérique à Grande Echelle). Our goal is to assimilate the spatially averaged 2-D column AOD data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, and to estimate improvements in a 3-D CTM assimilation run compared to a direct model run. Our assimilation system uses 3-D-FGAT (first guess at appropriate time) as an assimilation method and the total 3-D aerosol concentration as a control variable. In order to have an extensive validation dataset, we carried out our experiment in the northern summer of 2012 when the pre-ChArMEx (CHemistry and AeRosol MEditerranean EXperiment) field campaign TRAQA (TRAnsport à longue distance et Qualité de l'Air dans le bassin méditerranéen) took place in the western Mediterranean basin. The assimilated model run is evaluated independently against a range of aerosol properties (2-D and 3-D) measured by in situ instruments (the TRAQA size-resolved balloon and aircraft measurements), the satellite Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) instrument and ground-based instruments from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) network. The evaluation demonstrates that the AOD assimilation greatly improves aerosol representation in the model. For example, the comparison of the direct and the assimilated model run with AERONET data shows that the assimilation increased the correlation (from 0.74 to 0.88), and reduced the bias (from 0.050 to 0.006) and the root mean square error in the AOD (from 0.12 to 0.07). When compared to the 3-D concentration data obtained by the in situ aircraft and balloon measurements, the assimilation consistently improves the model output. The best results as expected occur when the shape of the vertical profile is correctly simulated by the direct model. We also examine how the assimilation can influence the modelled aerosol vertical distribution. The results show that a 2-D continuous AOD assimilation can improve the 3-D vertical profile, as a result of differential horizontal transport of aerosols in the model.

In this study we develop a secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA) module for the MOCAGE chemistry transport model developed at CNRM. The aim is to have a module suitable for running at different model resolutions and for operational applications with reasonable computing times. Based on the ISORROPIA II thermodynamic equilibrium module, the new version of the model is presented and evaluated at both the global and regional scales. The results show high concentrations of secondary inorganic aerosols in the most polluted regions: Europe, Asia and the eastern part of North America. Asia shows higher sulfate concentrations than other regions thanks to emission reductions in Europe and North America. Using two simulations, one with and the other without secondary inorganic aerosol formation, the global model outputs are compared to previous studies, to MODIS AOD retrievals, and also to in situ measurements from the HTAP database. The model shows a better agreement with MODIS AOD retrievals in all geographical regions after introducing the new SIA scheme. It also provides a good statistical agreement with in situ measurements of secondary inorganic aerosol composition: sulfate, nitrate and ammonium. In addition, the simulation with SIA generally gives a better agreement with observations for secondary inorganic aerosol precursors (nitric acid, sulfur dioxide, ammonia), in particular with a reduction of the modified normalized mean bias (MNMB). At the regional scale, over Europe, the model simulation with SIA is compared to the in situ measurements from the EMEP database and shows a good agreement with secondary inorganic aerosol composition. The results at the regional scale are consistent with those obtained from the global simulations. The AIRBASE database was used to compare the model to regulated air quality pollutants: particulate matter, ozone and nitrogen dioxide concentrations. Introduction of the SIA in MOCAGE provides a reduction in the PM2.5 MNMB of 0.44 on a yearly basis and up to 0.52 for the 3 spring months (March, April, May) when SIAs are at their maximum.

We conduct analyses to assess how characteristics of observations of ozone and its precursors affect air quality forecasting and research. To carry out this investigation, we use a photochemical box model and its adjoint integrated with a Lagrangian 4D-variational data assimilation system. Using this framework in conjunction with pseudo-observations, we perform an ozone precursor source inversion and estimate surface emissions. We then assess the resulting improvement in ozone air quality prediction. We use an analytical model to conduct uncertainty analyses. Using this analytical tool, we address some key questions regarding how the characteristics of observations affect ozone precursor emission inversion and in turn ozone prediction. These questions include what the effect is of choosing which species to observe, of varying amounts of observation noise, of changing the observing frequency and the observation time during the diurnal cycle, and of how these different scenarios interact with different photochemical regimes. In our investigation we use three observed species scenarios: CO and NO2; ozone, CO, and NO2; and HCHO, CO and NO2. The photochemical model was set up to simulate a range of summertime polluted environments spanning NOx-(NO and NO2)-limited to volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited conditions. We find that as the photochemical regime changes, here is a variation in the relative importance of trace gas observations to be able to constrain emission estimates and to improve the subsequent ozone forecasts. For example, adding ozone observations to an NO2 and CO observing system is found to decrease ozone prediction error under NOx- and VOC-limited regimes, and complementing the NO2 and CO system with HCHO observations would improve ozone prediction in the transitional regime and under VOC-limited conditions. We found that scenarios observing ozone and HCHO with a relative observing noise of lower than 33 % were able to achieve ozone prediction errors of lower than 5 ppbv (parts per billion by volume). Further, only observing intervals of 3 h or shorter were able to consistently achieve ozone prediction errors of 5 ppbv or lower across all photochemical regimes. Making observations closer to the prediction period and either in the morning or afternoon rush hour periods made greater improvements for ozone prediction: 0.2–0.3 ppbv for the morning rush hour and from 0.3 to 0.8 ppbv for the afternoon compared to only 0–0.1 ppbv for other times of the day. Finally, we made two complementary analyses that show that our conclusions are insensitive to the assumed diurnal emission cycle and to the choice of which VOC species emission to estimate using our framework. These questions will address how different types of observing platform, e.g. geostationary satellites or ground monitoring networks, could support future air quality research and forecasting.

This paper describes the pre-operational analysis and forecasting system developed during MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) and continued in the MACC-II (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate: Interim Implementation) European projects to provide air quality services for the European continent. This system is based on seven state-of-the art models developed and run in Europe (CHIMERE, EMEP, EURAD-IM, LOTOS-EUROS, MATCH, MOCAGE and SILAM). These models are used to calculate multi-model ensemble products. The paper gives an overall picture of its status at the end of MACC-II (summer 2014) and analyses the performance of the multi-model ensemble. The MACC-II system provides daily 96 h forecasts with hourly outputs of 10 chemical species/aerosols (O3, NO2, SO2, CO, PM10, PM2.5, NO, NH3, total NMVOCs (non-methane volatile organic compounds) and PAN+PAN precursors) over eight vertical levels from the surface to 5 km height. The hourly analysis at the surface is done a posteriori for the past day using a selection of representative air quality data from European monitoring stations. The performance of the system is assessed daily, weekly and every 3 months (seasonally) through statistical indicators calculated using the available representative air quality data from European monitoring stations. Results for a case study show the ability of the ensemble median to forecast regional ozone pollution events. The seasonal performances of the individual models and of the multi-model ensemble have been monitored since September 2009 for ozone, NO2 and PM10. The statistical indicators for ozone in summer 2014 show that the ensemble median gives on average the best performances compared to the seven models. There is very little degradation of the scores with the forecast day but there is a marked diurnal cycle, similarly to the individual models, that can be related partly to the prescribed diurnal variations of anthropogenic emissions in the models. During summer 2014, the diurnal ozone maximum is underestimated by the ensemble median by about 4 μg m−3 on average. Locally, during the studied ozone episodes, the maxima from the ensemble median are often lower than observations by 30–50 μg m−3. Overall, ozone scores are generally good with average values for the normalised indicators of 0.14 for the modified normalised mean bias and of 0.30 for the fractional gross error. Tests have also shown that the ensemble median is robust to reduction of ensemble size by one, that is, if predictions are unavailable from one model. Scores are also discussed for PM10 for winter 2013–1014. There is an underestimation of most models leading the ensemble median to a mean bias of −4.5 μg m−3. The ensemble median fractional gross error is larger for PM10 (~ 0.52) than for ozone and the correlation is lower (~ 0.35 for PM10 and ~ 0.54 for ozone). This is related to a larger spread of the seven model scores for PM10 than for ozone linked to different levels of complexity of aerosol representation in the individual models. In parallel, a scientific analysis of the results of the seven models and of the ensemble is also done over the Mediterranean area because of the specificity of its meteorology and emissions. The system is robust in terms of the production availability. Major efforts have been done in MACC-II towards the operationalisation of all its components. Foreseen developments and research for improving its performances are discussed in the conclusion.

This paper presents the first ensemble modelling experiment in relation to birch pollen in Europe. The seven-model European ensemble of MACC-ENS, tested in trial simulations over the flowering season of 2010, was run through the flowering season of 2013. The simulations have been compared with observations in 11 countries, all members of the European Aeroallergen Network, for both individual models and the ensemble mean and median. It is shown that the models successfully reproduced the timing of the very late season of 2013, generally within a couple of days from the observed start of the season. The end of the season was generally predicted later than observed, by 5 days or more, which is a known feature of the source term used in the study. Absolute pollen concentrations during the season were somewhat underestimated in the southern part of the birch habitat. In the northern part of Europe, a record-low pollen season was strongly overestimated by all models. The median of the multi-model ensemble demonstrated robust performance, successfully eliminating the impact of outliers, which was particularly useful since for most models this was the first experience of pollen forecasting.

This paper deals with recent improvements to the global chemical transport model of Météo-France MOCAGE (Modèle de Chimie Atmosphérique à Grande Echelle) that consists of updates to different aerosol parameterizations. MOCAGE only contains primary aerosol species: desert dust, sea salt, black carbon, organic carbon, and also volcanic ash in the case of large volcanic eruptions. We introduced important changes to the aerosol parameterization concerning emissions, wet deposition and sedimentation. For the emissions, size distribution and wind calculations are modified for desert dust aerosols, and a surface sea temperature dependant source function is introduced for sea salt aerosols. Wet deposition is modified toward a more physically realistic representation by introducing re-evaporation of falling rain and snowfall scavenging and by changing the in-cloud scavenging scheme along with calculations of precipitation cloud cover and rain properties. The sedimentation scheme update includes changes regarding the stability and viscosity calculations. Independent data from satellites (MODIS, SEVIRI), the ground (AERONET, EMEP), and a model inter-comparison project (AeroCom) are compared with MOCAGE simulations and show that the introduced changes brought a significant improvement on aerosol representation, properties and global distribution. Emitted quantities of desert dust and sea salt, as well their lifetimes, moved closer towards values of AeroCom estimates and the multi-model average. When comparing the model simulations with MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations over the oceans, the updated model configuration shows a decrease in the modified normalized mean bias (MNMB; from 0.42 to 0.10) and a better correlation (from 0.06 to 0.32) in terms of the geographical distribution and the temporal variability. The updates corrected a strong positive MNMB in the sea salt representation at high latitudes (from 0.65 to 0.16), and a negative MNMB in the desert dust representation in the African dust outflow region (from −1.01 to −0.22). The updates in sedimentation produced a modest difference; the MNMB with MODIS data from 0.10 in the updated configuration went to 0.11 in the updated configuration only without the sedimentation updates. Yet, the updates in the emissions and the wet deposition made a stronger impact on the results; the MNMB was 0.27 and 0.21 in updated configurations only without emission, and only without wet deposition updates, respectively. Also, the lifetime, the extent, and the strength of the episodic aerosol events are better reproduced in the updated configuration. The wet deposition processes and the differences between the various configurations that were tested greatly influence the representation of the episodic events. However, wet deposition is not a continuous process; it has a local and episodic signature and its representation depends strongly on the precipitation regime in the model.

Emissions of halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLS) are poorly constrained. However, their inclusion in global models is required to simulate a realistic inorganic bromine (Bry) loading in both the troposphere, where bromine chemistry perturbs global oxidising capacity, and in the stratosphere, where it is a major sink for ozone (O3). We have performed simulations using a 3-D chemical transport model (CTM) including three top-down and a single bottom-up derived emission inventory of the major brominated VSLS bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2). We perform the first concerted evaluation of these inventories, comparing both the magnitude and spatial distribution of emissions. For a quantitative evaluation of each inventory, model output is compared with independent long-term observations at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) ground-based stations and with aircraft observations made during the NSF (National Science Foundation) HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) project. For CHBr3, the mean absolute deviation between model and surface observation ranges from 0.22 (38%) to 0.78 (115%) parts per trillion (ppt) in the tropics, depending on emission inventory. For CH2Br2, the range is 0.17 (24%) to 1.25 (167%) ppt. We also use aircraft observations made during the 2011 Stratospheric Ozone: Halogen Impacts in a Varying Atmosphere (SHIVA) campaign, in the tropical western Pacific. Here, the performance of the various inventories also varies significantly, but overall the CTM is able to reproduce observed CHBr3 well in the free troposphere using an inventory based on observed sea-to-air fluxes. Finally, we identify the range of uncertainty associated with these VSLS emission inventories on stratospheric bromine loading due to VSLS (BryVSLS). Our simulations show BryVSLS ranges from ~4.0 to 8.0 ppt depending on the inventory. We report an optimised estimate at the lower end of this range (~4 ppt) based on combining the CHBr3 and CH2Br2 inventories which give best agreement with the compilation of observations in the tropics.

Coupled Chemistry Aerosol-Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CCATT-BRAMS, version 4.5) is an on-line regional chemical transport model designed for local and regional studies of atmospheric chemistry from the surface to the lower stratosphere suitable both for operational and research purposes. It includes gaseous/aqueous chemistry, photochemistry, scavenging and dry deposition. The CCATT-BRAMS model takes advantage of BRAMS-specific development for the tropics/subtropics as well as the recent availability of preprocessing tools for chemical mechanisms and fast codes for photolysis rates. BRAMS includes state-of-the-art physical parameterizations and dynamic formulations to simulate atmospheric circulations down to the meter. This on-line coupling of meteorology and chemistry allows the system to be used for simultaneous weather and chemical composition forecasts as well as potential feedback between the two. The entire system is made of three preprocessing software tools for user-defined chemical mechanisms, aerosol and trace gas emissions fields and the interpolation of initial and boundary conditions for meteorology and chemistry. In this paper, the model description is provided along with the evaluations performed by using observational data obtained from ground-based stations, instruments aboard aircrafts and retrieval from space remote sensing. The evaluation accounts for model applications at different scales from megacities and the Amazon Basin up to the intercontinental region of the Southern Hemisphere.

The behavior of the extratropical transition layer (ExTL) is investigated using a chemistry transport model (CTM) and analyses derived from assimilation of MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder) O3 and MOPITT (Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere) CO data. We firstly focus on a stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE) case study that occurred on 15 August 2007 over the British Isles (50° N, 10° W). We evaluate the effect of data assimilation on the O3–CO correlations. It is shown that data assimilation disrupts the relationship in the transition region. When MLS O3 is assimilated, CO and O3 values are not consistent between each other, leading to unphysical correlations at the STE location. When MLS O3 and MOPITT CO assimilated fields are taken into account in the diagnostics the relationship happens to be more physical. We then use O3–CO correlations to quantify the effect of data assimilation on the height and depth of the ExTL. When the free-model run O3 and CO fields are used in the diagnostics, the ExTL distribution is found 1.1 km above the thermal tropopause and is 2.6 km wide (2σ). MOPITT CO analyses only slightly sharpen (by −0.02 km) and lower (by −0.2 km) the ExTL distribution. MLS O3 analyses provide an expansion (by +0.9 km) of the ExTL distribution, suggesting a more intense O3 mixing. However, the MLS O3 analyses ExTL distribution shows a maximum close to the thermal tropopause and a mean location closer to the thermal tropopause (+0.45 km). When MLS O3 and MOPITT CO analyses are used together, the ExTL shows a mean location that is the closest to the thermal tropopause (+0.16 km). We also extend the study at the global scale on 15 August 2007 and for the month of August 2007. MOPITT CO analyses still show a narrower chemical transition between stratosphere and troposphere than the free-model run. MLS O3 analyses move the ExTL toward the troposphere and broaden it. When MLS O3 analyses and MOPITT CO analyses are used together, the ExTL matches the thermal tropopause poleward of 50°.

Predicting how European air quality could evolve over the next decades in the context of changing climate requires the use of climate models to produce results that can be averaged in a climatologically and statistically sound manner. This is a very different approach from the one that is generally used for air quality hindcasts for the present period; analysed meteorological fields are used to represent specifically each date and hour. Differences arise both from the fact that a climate model run results in a pure model output, with no influence from observations (which are useful to correct for a range of errors), and that in a "climate" set-up, simulations on a given day, month or even season cannot be related to any specific period of time (but can just be interpreted in a climatological sense). Hence, although an air quality model can be thoroughly validated in a "realistic" set-up using analysed meteorological fields, the question remains of how far its outputs can be interpreted in a "climate" set-up. For this purpose, we focus on Europe and on the current decade using three 5-yr simulations performed with the multiscale chemistry-transport model MOCAGE and use meteorological forcings either from operational meteorological analyses or from climate simulations. We investigate how statistical skill indicators compare in the different simulations, discriminating also the effects of meteorology on atmospheric fields (winds, temperature, humidity, pressure, etc.) and on the dependent emissions and deposition processes (volatile organic compound emissions, deposition velocities, etc.). Our results show in particular how differing boundary layer heights and deposition velocities affect horizontal and vertical distributions of species. When the model is driven by operational analyses, the simulation accurately reproduces the observed values of O3, NOx, SO2 and, with some bias that can be explained by the set-up, PM10. We study how the simulations driven by climate forcings differ, both due to the realism of the forcings (lack of data assimilated and lower resolution) and due to the lack of representation of the actual chronology of events. We conclude that the indicators such as mean bias, mean normalized bias, RMSE and deviation standards can be used to interpret the results with some confidence as well as the health-related indicators such as the number of days of exceedance of regulatory thresholds. These metrics are thus considered to be suitable for the interpretation of simulations of the future evolution of European air quality.

Bromoform is one of the most abundant halogenated Very Short-Lived Substances (VSLS) that possibly contributes, when degradated, to the inorganic halogen loading in the stratosphere. In this paper we present a detailed modelling study of the transport and the photochemical degradation of bromoform and its product gases (PGs) in a tropical convective cloud. The aim was to explore the transport and chemistry of bromoform under idealised conditions at the cloud scale. We used a 3-D cloud-resolving model coupled with a chemistry model including gaseous and aqueous chemistry. In particular, our model features explicit partitioning of the PGs between the gas phase and the aqueous phase based on newly calculated Henry's law coefficients using theoretical methods. We ran idealised simulations for up to 10 days that were initialised using a tropical radiosounding of atmospheric conditions and using outputs from a global chemistry-transport model for chemical species. Two simulations were run with stable atmospheric conditions with a bromoform initial mixing ratio of 40 pptv (part per trillion by volume) and 1.6 pptv up to 1 km altitude. The first simulation corresponds to high bromoform mixing ratios that are representative of real values found near strong localised sources (e.g. tropical coastal margins) and the second to the global tropical mean mixing ratio from observations. Both of these simulations show that the sum of bromoform and its PGs significantly decreases with time because of dry deposition, and that PGs are mainly in the form of HBr after 2 days of simulation. Two further simulations are conducted; these are similar to the first two simulations but include perturbations of temperature and moisture leading to the development of a convective cloud reaching the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). Results of these simulations show an efficient vertical transport of the bromoform from the boundary layer to the upper troposphere and the TTL. The bromoform mixing ratio in the TTL is up to 45% of the initial boundary layer mixing ratio. The most abundant organic PGs, which are not very soluble, are also uplifted efficiently in both simulations featuring the convective perturbation. The inorganic PGs are more abundant than the organic PGs, and their mixing ratios in the upper troposphere and in the TTL depend on the partitioning between inorganic soluble and insoluble species in the convective cloud. Important soluble species such as HBr and HOBr are efficiently scavenged by rain. This removal of Bry by rain is reduced by the release of Br2 (relatively insoluble) to the gas phase due to aqueous chemistry processes in the cloud droplets. The formation of Br2 in the aqueous phase and its subsequent release to the gas phase makes a non negligible contribution to the high altitude bromine budget in the case of the large bromoform (40 pptv) initial mixing ratios. In this specific, yet realistic case, this Br2 production process is important for the PG budget in the upper troposphere and in the TTL above convective systems. This process is favoured by acidic conditions in the cloud droplets, i.e. polluted conditions. In the case of low bromoform initial mixing ratios, which are more representative of the mean distribution in the tropics, this Br2 production process is shown to be less important. These conclusions could nevertheless be revisited if the knowledge of chlorine and bromine chemistry in the cloud droplets was improved in the future.

The tropical transport processes of 14 different models or model versions were compared, within the framework of the SCOUT-O3 (Stratospheric-Climate Links with Emphasis on the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere) project. The tested models range from the regional to the global scale, and include numerical weather prediction (NWP), chemical transport, and chemistry-climate models. Idealised tracers were used in order to prevent the model's chemistry schemes from influencing the results substantially, so that the effects of modelled transport could be isolated. We find large differences in the vertical transport of very short-lived tracers (with a lifetime of 6 h) within the tropical troposphere. Peak convective outflow altitudes range from around 300 hPa to almost 100 hPa among the different models, and the upper tropospheric tracer mixing ratios differ by up to an order of magnitude. The timing of convective events is found to be different between the models, even among those which source their forcing data from the same NWP model (ECMWF). The differences are less pronounced for longer lived tracers, however they could have implications for modelling the halogen burden of the lowermost stratosphere through transport of species such as bromoform, or short-lived hydrocarbons into the lowermost stratosphere. The modelled tracer profiles are strongly influenced by the convective transport parameterisations, and different boundary layer mixing parameterisations also have a large impact on the modelled tracer profiles. Preferential locations for rapid transport from the surface into the upper troposphere are similar in all models, and are mostly concentrated over the western Pacific, the Maritime Continent and the Indian Ocean. In contrast, models do not indicate that upward transport is highest over western Africa.

The EU HIBISCUS project consisted of a series of field campaigns during the intense convective summers in 2001, 2003 and 2004 in the State of São Paulo in Brazil. Its objective was to investigate the impact of deep convection on the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) and the lower stratosphere by providing a new set of observational data on meteorology, tracers of horizontal and vertical transport, water vapour, clouds, and chemistry in the tropical Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere (UT/LS). This was achieved using short duration research balloons to study local phenomena associated with convection over land, and long-duration balloons circumnavigating the globe to study the contrast between land and oceans. Analyses of observations of short-lived tracers, ozone and ice particles show strong episodic local updraughts of cold air across the lapse rate tropopause up to 18 or 19 km (420–440 K) in the lower stratosphere by overshooting towers. The long duration balloon and satellite measurements reveal a contrast between the composition of the lower stratosphere over land and oceanic areas, suggesting significant global impact of such events. The overshoots are shown to be well captured by non-hydrostatic meso-scale Cloud Resolving Models indicating vertical velocities of 50–60 m s−1 at the top of the Neutral Buoyancy Level (NBL) at around 14 km, but, in contrast, are poorly represented by global Chemistry-Transport Models (CTM) forced by Numerical Weather Forecast Models (NWP) underestimating the overshooting process. Finally, the data collected by the HIBISCUS balloons have allowed a thorough evaluation of temperature NWP analyses and reanalyses, as well as satellite ozone, nitrogen oxide, water vapour and bromine oxide measurements in the tropics.

Fast convective transport in the tropics can efficiently redistribute water vapour and pollutants up to the upper troposphere. In this study we compare tropical convection characteristics for the year 2005 in a range of atmospheric models, including numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, chemistry transport models (CTMs), and chemistry-climate models (CCMs). The model runs have been performed within the framework of the SCOUT-O3 (Stratospheric-Climate Links with Emphasis on the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere) project. The characteristics of tropical convection, such as seasonal cycle, land/sea contrast and vertical extent, are analysed using satellite observations as a benchmark for model simulations. The observational datasets used in this work comprise precipitation rates, outgoing longwave radiation, cloud-top pressure, and water vapour from a number of independent sources, including ERA-Interim analyses. Most models are generally able to reproduce the seasonal cycle and strength of precipitation for continental regions but show larger discrepancies with observations for the Maritime Continent region. The frequency distribution of high clouds from models and observations is calculated using highly temporally-resolved (up to 3-hourly) cloud top data. The percentage of clouds above 15 km varies significantly between the models. Vertical profiles of water vapour in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere (UTLS) show large differences between the models which can only be partly attributed to temperature differences. If a convective plume reaches above the level of zero net radiative heating, which is estimated to be ~15 km in the tropics, the air detrained from it can be transported upwards by radiative heating into the lower stratosphere. In this context, we discuss the role of tropical convection as a precursor for the transport of short-lived species into the lower stratosphere.

The aim of this paper is to study the impacts of overshooting convection at a local scale on the water distribution in the tropical UTLS. Overshooting convection is assumed to be one of the processes controlling the entry of water vapour mixing ratio in the stratosphere by injecting ice crystals above the tropopause which later sublimate and hydrate the lower stratosphere. For this purpose, we quantify the individual impact of two cases of overshooting convection in Africa observed during SCOUT-AMMA: the case of 4 August 2006 over Southern Chad which is likely to have influenced the water vapour measurements by micro-SDLA and FLASH-B from Niamey on 5 August, and the case of a mesoscale convective system over Aïr on 5 August 2006. We make use of high resolution (down to 1 km horizontally) nested grid simulations with the three-dimensional regional atmospheric model BRAMS (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modelling System). In both cases, BRAMS succeeds in simulating the main features of the convective activity, as well as overshooting convection, though the exact position and time of the overshoots indicated by MSG brightness temperature difference is not fully reproduced (typically 1° displacement in latitude compared with the overshoots indicated by brightness temperature difference from satellite observations for both cases, and several hours shift for the Aïr case on 5 August 2006). Total water budgets associated with these two events show a significant injection of ice particles above the tropopause with maximum values of about 3.7 ton s−1 for the Chad case (4 August) and 1.4 ton s−1 for the Aïr case (5 August), and a total upward cross tropopause transport of about 3300 ton h−1 for the Chad case and 2400 ton h−1 for the Aïr case in the third domain of simulation. The order of magnitude of these modelled fluxes is lower but comparable with similar studies in other tropical areas based on models. These two estimations exhibit significant differences and highlight variability among the cases of the impact of overshooting convection in hydrating the lower stratosphere. We show that the regional enhancement of water above the tropopause is between 0.21 to 0.67 ppmv between 380 and 400 K, generally in the range of other model estimations. The amount of water which remains in the stratosphere after the overshoot is estimated for both cases. A range of 330 to 507 tons is found for the Chad case and an upper limit of 200 tons is found for the Aïr case. Finally we emphasize that the hydrated area in the LS by overshooting convection can be advected relatively far away from the overshoot initial location, with locally mixing ratios of more than 3 ppmv higher than the background level, which is compatible with the balloon borne measurements performed above Niamey in the same air mass, 30 h after the overshoot.

The present paper is a preliminary study preparing the introduction of reversible trace gas uptake by ice particles into a 3-D cloud resolving model. For this a 3-D simulation of a tropical deep convection cloud was run with the BRAMS cloud resolving model using a two-moment bulk microphysical parameterization. Trajectories within the convective clouds were computed from these simulation outputs along which the variations of the pristine ice, snow and aggregate mixing ratios and concentrations were extracted. The reversible uptake of 11 trace gases by ice was examined assuming applicability of Langmuir isotherms using recently evaluated (IUPAC) laboratory data. The results show that ice uptake is only significant for HNO3, HCl, CH3COOH and HCOOH. For H2O2, using new results for the partition coefficient results in significant partitioning to the ice phase for this trace gas also. It was also shown that the uptake is largely dependent on the temperature for some species. The adsorption saturation at the ice surface for large gas mixing ratios is generally not a limiting factor except for HNO3 and HCl for gas mixing ratio greater than 1 ppbv. For HNO3, results were also obtained using a trapping theory, resulting in a similar order of magnitude of uptake, although the two approaches are based on different assumptions. The results were compared to those obtained using a BRAMS cloud simulation based on a single-moment microphysical scheme instead of the two moment scheme. We found similar results with a slightly more important uptake when using the single-moment scheme which is related to slightly higher ice mixing ratios in this simulation. The way to introduce these results in the 3-D cloud model is discussed.

We study the impact of temporal and spatial resolution and changes in modelled meteorological winds in the context of diffusive ensemble Lagrangian reconstructions. In situ tracer measurements are modelled based on coarse resolution global 3-D tracer distributions from a chemistry-transport model and on different time series of meteorological wind fields including a special set of 1-hourly analysed winds which is compared with 3 and 6-hourly operational analysed winds and with 3-hourly ERA-interim reanalysis. Increasing the time resolution of the advecting winds from three to one hour using the operational winds provides an improvement on diffusive reconstructions in the period studied but smaller than that obtained from six to three hours. The positive impact of using 1-hourly winds is similar to that obtained using ERA-Interim 3-hourly winds instead of the 3-hourly ECMWF operational analysis for the same period. This study sets out a technique to quantify differences in time series of meteorological wind fields here applied to assess the optimal space and time resolutions for ensemble Lagrangian reconstructions in the lower stratosphere.