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Abstract. In this study, the resolution dependence of the simulated Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (GrIS SMB) in the variable-resolution Community EarthSystem Model (VR-CESM) is investigated. Coupled atmosphere–land simulationsare performed on two regionally refined grids over Greenland at0.5∘ (∼55 km) and 0.25∘ (∼28 km), maintaininga quasi-uniform resolution of 1∘ (∼111 km) over the rest ofthe globe. On the refined grids, the SMB in the accumulation zone issignificantly improved compared to airborne radar and in situ observations,with a general wetting (more snowfall) at the margins and a drying (lesssnowfall) in the interior GrIS. Total GrIS precipitation decreases withresolution, which is in line with best-available regional climate modelresults. In the ablation zone, CESM starts developing a positive SMB biaswith increased resolution in some basins, notably in the east and the north.The mismatch in ablation is linked to changes in cloud cover in VR-CESM, anda reduced effectiveness of the elevation classes subgrid parametrization inCESM. Overall, our pilot study introduces VR-CESM as a new tool in the cryospheric sciences, which could be used todynamically downscale SMB in scenario simulations and to force dynamical icesheet models through the CESM coupling framework.

In this work, we examine connections between patterns of future Greenland precipitation and large-scale atmospheric circulation changes over the Northern Hemisphere. In the last three decades of the 21st century, CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble mean precipitation significantly decreases over the northern part of the North Atlantic Ocean with respect to 1951–1980. This drying signal extends from the ocean to the southeastern margin of Greenland. The 500 hPa geopotential height change shows a clear pattern including a widespread increase across the Arctic with a negative anomaly centered over Iceland and surrounding regions. To identify the mechanisms linking atmospheric circulation variability with Greenland precipitation, we perform a singular value decomposition (SVD) and center of action (COA) analysis. We find that a northeastward shift of the Icelandic Low (IL) under the SSP5‐8.5 warming scenario leads to the drying signal found in southeast Greenland. This implies that the IL location will have a strong influence on precipitation changes over southeast Greenland in the future, impacting projections of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract. In this study, the resolution dependence of the simulated Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance in the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) is investigated. Coupled atmosphere-land simulations are performed on three regionally refined grids over Greenland at 1° (~111 km), 0.5°(~55 km), and 0.25° (~28 km), maintaining a quasi-uniform resolution of 1° (~111 km) over the rest of the globe. The SMB in the accumulation zone is significantly improved compared to airborne radar and in-situ observations, with a general wetting at the margins and a drying in the interior GrIS. Total precipitation decreases with resolution, which is in line with best-available regional climate model results. In the ablation zone, VR-CESM starts developing a positive SMB bias in some locations. Potential driving mechanisms are proposed, amongst which are diversions in large scale circulation, changes in cloud cover, and changes in summer snowfall. Overall, our results demonstrate that VR-CESM is a viable new tool in the cryospheric sciences and can be used to dynamically downscale future scenarios and/or be interactively coupled to dynamical ice sheet models.

Estimating the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is critical for improving future sea level rise (SLR) projections. Numerical ice sheet models are invaluable tools for bounding Antarctic vulnerability; yet, few continental-scale projections of century-scale AIS SLR contribution exist, and those that do vary by up to an order of magnitude. This is partly because model projections of future sea level are inherently uncertain and depend largely on the model's boundary conditions and climate forcing, which themselves are unknown due to the uncertainty in the projections of future anthropogenic emissions and subsequent climate response. Here, we aim to improve the understanding of how uncertainties in model forcing and boundary conditions affect ice sheet model simulations. With use of sampling techniques embedded within the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) framework, we assess how uncertainties in snow accumulation, ocean-induced melting, ice viscosity, basal friction, bedrock elevation, and the presence of ice shelves impact continental-scale 100-year model simulations of AIS future sea level contribution. Overall, we find that AIS sea level contribution is strongly affected by grounding line retreat, which is driven by the magnitude of ice shelf basal melt rates and by variations in bedrock topography. In addition, we find that over 1.2 m of AIS global mean sea level contribution over the next century is achievable, but not likely, as it is tenable only in response to unrealistically large melt rates and continental ice shelf collapse. Regionally, we find that under our most extreme 100-year warming experiment generalized for the entire ice sheet, the Amundsen Sea sector is the most significant source of model uncertainty (1032 mm 6σ spread) and the region with the largest potential for future sea level contribution (297 mm). In contrast, under a more plausible forcing informed regionally by literature and model sensitivity studies, the Ronne basin has a greater potential for local increases in ice shelf basal melt rates. As a result, under this more likely realization, where warm waters reach the continental shelf under the Ronne ice shelf, it is the Ronne basin, particularly the Evans and Rutford ice streams, that are the greatest contributors to potential SLR (161 mm) and to simulation uncertainty (420 mm 6spread).

Meltwater runoff from the Greenland ice sheet surface influences surface mass balance (SMB), ice dynamics, and global sea level rise, but is estimated with climate models and thus difficult to validate. We present a way to measure ice surface runoff directly, from hourly in situ supraglacial river discharge measurements and simultaneous high-resolution satellite/drone remote sensing of upstream fluvial catchment area. A first 72-h trial for a 63.1-km2 moulin-terminating internally drained catchment (IDC) on Greenland's midelevation (1,207-1,381 m above sea level) ablation zone is compared with melt and runoff simulations from HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, RACMO2.3, MERRA-2, and SEB climate/SMB models. Current models cannot reproduce peak discharges or timing of runoff entering moulins but are improved using synthetic unit hydrograph (SUH) theory. Retroactive SUH applications to two older field studies reproduce their findings, signifying that remotely sensed IDC area, shape, and supraglacial river length are useful for predicting delays in peak runoff delivery to moulins. Applying SUH to HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, and RACMO2.3 gridded melt products for 799 surrounding IDCs suggests their terminal moulins receive lower peak discharges, less diurnal variability, and asynchronous runoff timing relative to climate/SMB model output alone. Conversely, large IDCs produce high moulin discharges, even at high elevations where melt rates are low. During this particular field experiment, models overestimated runoff by +21 to +58%, linked to overestimated surface ablation and possible meltwater retention in bare, porous, low-density ice. Direct measurements of ice surface runoff will improve climate/SMB models, and incorporating remotely sensed IDCs will aid coupling of SMB with ice dynamics and subglacial systems.

Surface melt and mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet may play crucial roles in global climate change due to their positive feedbacks and large fresh-water storage. With few other regular meteorological observations available in this extreme environment, measurements from automatic weather stations (AWS) are the primary data source for studying surface energy budgets, and for validating satellite observations and model simulations. Station tilt, due to irregular surface melt, compaction and glacier dynamics, causes considerable biases in the AWS shortwave radiation measurements. In this study, we identify tilt-induced biases in the climatology of surface shortwave radiative flux and albedo, and retrospectively correct these by iterative application of solar geometric principles. We found, over all the AWS from the Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net), the Kangerlussuaq transect (K-transect) and the Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet (PROMICE) networks, insolation on fewer than 40% of clear days peaks within ±0.5h of solar noon time, with the largest shift exceeding 3h due to tilt. Hourly absolute biases in the magnitude of surface insolation can reach up to 200W m-2, with respect to the well-understood clear-day insolation. We estimate the tilt angles and their directions based on the solar geometric relationship between the simulated insolation at a horizontal surface and the observed insolation by these tilted AWS under clear-sky conditions. Our adjustment reduces the root mean square error (RMSE) against references from both satellite observation and reanalysis by 16W m-2 (24%), and raises the correlation coefficients with them to above 0.95. Averaged over the whole Greenland Ice Sheet in the melt season, the adjustment in insolation to compensate station tilt is ∼ 11W m-2, enough to melt 0.24m of snow water equivalent. The adjusted diurnal cycles of albedo are smoother, with consistent semi-smiling patterns. The seasonal cycles and inter-annual variabilities of albedo agree better with previous studies. This tilt-corrected shortwave radiation data set derived using the Retrospective, Iterative, Geometry-Based (RIGB) method provide more accurate observations and validations for surface energy budgets studies on the Greenland Ice Sheet, including albedo variations, surface melt simulations and cloud radiative forcing estimates.

We compare four independent estimates of the mass balance of the Amundsen Sea Embayment of West Antarctica, an area experiencing rapid retreat and mass loss to the sea. We use ICESat and Operation IceBridge laser altimetry, Envisat radar altimetry, GRACE time-variable gravity, RACMO2.3 surface mass balance, ice velocity from imaging radars, and ice thickness from radar sounders. The four methods agree in terms of mass loss and acceleration in loss at the regional scale. Over 1992-2013, the mass loss is 83 ± 5 Gt/yr with an acceleration of 6.1 ± 0.7 Gt/yr2. During the common period 2003-2009, the mass loss is 84 ± 10 Gt/yr with an acceleration of 16.3 ± 5.6 Gt/yr2, nearly 3 times the acceleration over 1992-2013. Over 2003-2011, the mass loss is 102 ± 10 Gt/yr with an acceleration of 15.7 ± 4.0 Gt/yr2. The results reconcile independent mass balance estimates in a setting dominated by change in ice dynamics with significant variability in surface mass balance.

Elevation changes of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) related to surface mass balance and firn processes vary strongly in space and time. Their subdecadal natural variability is large and hampers the detection of long-term climate trends. Firn models or satellite altimetry observations are typically used to investigate such firn thickness changes. However, there is a large spread among firn models. Further, they do not fully explain observed firn thickness changes, especially on smaller spatial scales. Reconciled firn thickness variations will facilitate the detection of long-term trends from satellite altimetry; the resolution of the spatial patterns of such trends; and, hence, their attribution to the underlying mechanisms. This study has two objectives. First, we quantify interannual Antarctic firn thickness variations on a 10 km grid scale. Second, we characterise errors in both the altimetry products and firn models. To achieve this, we jointly analyse satellite altimetry and firn modelling results in time and space. We use the timing of firn thickness variations from firn models and the satellite-observed amplitude of these variations to generate a combined product ("adjusted firn thickness variations") over the AIS for 1992–2017. The combined product characterises spatially resolved variations better than either firn models alone or altimetry alone. It provides a higher resolution and a more precise spatial distribution of the variations compared to model-only solutions and eliminates most of the altimetry errors compared to altimetry-only solutions. Relative uncertainties in basin-mean time series of the adjusted firn thickness variations range from 20 % to 108 %. At the grid cell level, relative uncertainties are higher, with median values per basin in the range of 54 % to 186 %. This is due to the uncertainties in the large and very dry areas of central East Antarctica, especially over large megadune fields, where the low signal-to-noise ratio poses a challenge for both models and altimetry to resolve firn thickness variations. A large part of the variance in the altimetric time series is not explained by the adjusted firn thickness variations. Analysis of the altimetric residuals indicate that they contain firn model errors, such as firn signals not captured by the models, and altimetry errors, such as time-variable radar penetration effects and errors in intermission calibration. This highlights the need for improvements in firn modelling and altimetry analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The next version of the polar Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (referred to as RACMO2.4p1) is presented in this study. The principal update includes embedding of the package of physical parameterizations of the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) cycle 47r1. This constitutes changes in the precipitation, convection, turbulence, aerosol and surface schemes and includes a new cloud scheme with more prognostic variables and a dedicated lake model. Furthermore, the standalone IFS radiation physics module ecRad is incorporated into RACMO, and a multilayer snow module for non-glaciated regions is introduced. Other updates involve the introduction of a fractional land–ice mask, new and updated climatological data sets (such as aerosol concentrations and leaf area index), and the revision of several parameterizations specific to glaciated regions. As a proof of concept, we show first results for Greenland, Antarctica and a region encompassing the Arctic. By comparing the results with observations and the output from the previous model version (RACMO2.3p3), we show that the model performs well regarding the surface mass balance, surface energy balance, temperature, wind speed, cloud content and snow depth. The advection of snow hydrometeors strongly impacts the ice sheet's local surface mass balance, particularly in high-accumulation regions such as southeast Greenland and the Antarctic Peninsula. We critically assess the model output and identify some processes that would benefit from further model development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The contribution to sea level to 2200 from the grounded, mainland Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet (APIS) was calculated using an ice-sheet model initialized with a new technique computing ice fluxes based on observed surface velocities, altimetry and surface mass balance, and computing volume response using a linearized method. Volume change estimates of the APIS resulting from surface massbalance anomalies calculated by the regional model RACMO2, forced by A1B and E1 scenarios of the global models ECHAM5 and HadCM3, predicted net negative sea-level contributions between -0.5 and -12mm sea-level equivalent (SLE) by 2200. Increased glacier flow due to ice thickening returned ~15% of the increased accumulation to the sea by 2100 and ~30% by 2200. The likely change in volume of the APIS by 2200 in response to imposed 10 and 20km retreats of the grounding line at individual large outlet glaciers in Palmer Land, southern Antarctic Peninsula, ranged between 0.5 and 3.5mm SLE per drainage basin. Ensemble calculations of APIS volume change resulting from imposed grounding-line retreat due to ice-shelf break-up scenarios applied to all 20 of the largest drainage basins in Palmer Land (covering ~40% of the total area of APIS) resulted in net sea-level contributions of 7-16mm SLE by 2100, and 10-25mm SLE by 2200. Inclusion of basins in the northern peninsula and realistic simulation of grounding-line movement for AP outlet glaciers will improve future projections.

We combined an ensemble of satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry data sets using common geographical regions, time intervals, and models of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment to estimate the mass balance of Earth's polar ice sheets. We find that there is good agreement between different satellite methods--especially in Greenland and West Antarctica--and that combining satellite data sets leads to greater certainty. Between 1992 and 2011, the ice sheets of Greenland, East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula changed in mass by -142 ± 49, +14 ± 43, -65 ± 26, and -20 ± 14 gigatonnes year(-1), respectively. Since 1992, the polar ice sheets have contributed, on average, 0.59 ± 0.20 millimeter year(-1) to the rate of global sea-level rise.

We review the sea-level and energy budgets together from 1961, using recent and updated estimates of all terms. From 1972 to 2008, the observed sea-level rise (1.8 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 from tide gauges alone and 2.1 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 from a combination of tide gauges and altimeter observations) agrees well with the sum of contributions (1.8 ± 0.4 mm yr−1) in magnitude and with both having similar increases in the rate of rise during the period. The largest contributions come from ocean thermal expansion (0.8 mm yr−1) and the melting of glaciers and ice caps (0.7 mm yr−1), with Greenland and Antarctica contributing about 0.4 mm yr−1. The cryospheric contributions increase through the period (particularly in the 1990s) but the thermosteric contribution increases less rapidly. We include an improved estimate of aquifer depletion (0.3 mm yr−1), partially offsetting the retention of water in dams and giving a total terrestrial storage contribution of −0.1 mm yr−1. Ocean warming (90% of the total of the Earth's energy increase) continues through to the end of the record, in agreement with continued greenhouse gas forcing. The aerosol forcing, inferred as a residual in the atmospheric energy balance, is estimated as −0.8 ± 0.4 W m−2 for the 1980s and early 1990s. It increases in the late 1990s, as is required for consistency with little surface warming over the last decade. This increase is likely at least partially related to substantial increases in aerosol emissions from developing nations and moderate volcanic activity.

Until quite recently, the mass balance (MB) of the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica was poorly known and often treated as a residual in the budget of oceanic mass and sea level change. Recent developments in regional climate modelling and remote sensing, especially altimetry, gravimetry and InSAR feature tracking, have enabled us to specifically resolve the ice sheet mass balance components at a near-annual timescale. The results reveal significant mass losses for both ice sheets, caused by the acceleration of marine-terminating glaciers in southeast, west and northwest Greenland and coastal West Antarctica, and increased run-off in Greenland. At the same time, the data show that interannual variability is very significant, masking the underlying trends. © 2011 The Author(s).

High-resolution (∼11 km) regional climate modeling shows total annual precipitation on the Greenland ice sheet for 1958-2007 to be up to 24% and surface mass balance up to 63% higher than previously thought. The largest differences occur in coastal southeast Greenland, where the much higher resolution facilitates capturing snow accumulation peaks that past five-fold coarser resolution regional climate models missed. The surface mass balance trend over the full 1958-2007 period reveals the classic pattern expected in a warming climate, with increased snowfall in the interior and enhanced runoff from the marginal ablation zone. In the period 1990-2007, total runoff increased significantly, 3% per year. The absolute increase in runoff is especially pronounced in the southeast, where several outlet glaciers have recently accelerated. This detailed knowledge of Greenland's surface mass balance provides the foundation for estimating and predicting the overall mass balance and freshwater discharge of the ice sheet. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Large uncertainties remain in the current and future contribution to sea level rise from Antarctica. Climate warming may increase snowfall in the continents interior, but enhance glacier discharge at the coast where warmer air and ocean temperatures erode the buttressing ice shelves. Here, we use satellite interferometric synthetic-aperture radar observations from 1992 to 2006 covering 85 of Antarcticas coastline to estimate the total mass flux into the ocean. We compare the mass fluxes from large drainage basin units with interior snow accumulation calculated from a regional atmospheric climate model for 1980 to 2004. In East Antarctica, small glacier losses in Wilkes Land and glacier gains at the mouths of the Filchner and Ross ice shelves combine to a near-zero loss of 4±61 Gt yr1. In West Antarctica, widespread losses along the Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas increased the ice sheet loss by 59 in 10 years to reach 132±60 Gt yr1 in 2006. In the Peninsula, losses increased by 140 to reach 60±46 Gt yr1 in 2006. Losses are concentrated along narrow channels occupied by outlet glaciers and are caused by ongoing and past glacier acceleration. Changes in glacier flow therefore have a significant, if not dominant impact on ice sheet mass balance. © 2008 Nature Publishing Group.

The Antarctic firn layer provides pore space in which an estimated 94 % to 96 % of the surface melt refreezes or is retained as liquid water. Future depletion of firn pore space by increased surface melt, densification and formation of low-permeability ice slabs can potentially lead to meltwater ponding, hydrofracturing and ice-shelf disintegration. Here, we investigate the 21st-century evolution of total firn air content (FAC) and accessible FAC (i.e. the pore space that meltwater can reach) across Antarctic ice shelves. We use the semi-empirical IMAU Firn Densification Model (IMAU-FDM) with an updated dynamical densification expression to cope with changing climate forcing. The firn model is forced by general circulation model output of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) for three climate emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), dynamically downscaled to a 27 km horizontal resolution by the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model version 2.3p2 (RACMO2.3p2). To estimate accessible FAC, we prescribe a relationship between ice-slab thickness and permeability. In our simulations, ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula and the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf in Dronning Maud Land are particularly vulnerable to total FAC depletion (> 50 % decrease by 2100), even for low-emission (SSP1-2.6) and intermediate-emission (SSP2-4.5) scenarios. In the high-emission (SSP5-8.5) scenario in particular, the formation of ice slabs further reduces accessible FAC on ice shelves with low accumulation rates (current rates of < 500 mmw.e.yr-1), including many East Antarctic ice shelves and the Filchner–Ronne, Ross, Pine Island and Larsen C ice shelves. These results underline the potentially large vulnerability of low-accumulation ice shelves to firn air depletion through ice-slab formation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]