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A perfect storm of new technologies and new business models is transforming not only our vehicles, but everything about how we get around, and how we live our lives. The JRC report “The future of road transport - Implications of automated, connected, low-carbon and shared mobility” looks at some main enablers of the transformation of road transport, such as data governance, infrastructures, communication technologies and cybersecurity, and legislation. It discusses the potential impacts on the economy, employment and skills, energy use and emissions, the sustainability of raw materials, democracy, privacy and social fairness, as well as on the urban context. It shows how the massive changes on the horizon represent an opportunity to move towards a transport system that is more efficient, safer, less polluting and more accessible to larger parts of society than the current one centred on car ownership. However, new transport technologies, on their own, won't spontaneously make our lives better without upgrading our transport systems and policies to the 21st century. The improvement of governance and the development of innovative mobility solutions will be crucial to ensure that the future of transport is cleaner and more equitable than its car-centred present., JRC.C.4-Sustainable Transport

A perfect storm of new technologies and new business models is transforming not only our vehicles, but everything about how we get around, and how we live our lives. The JRC report "The future of road transport - Implications of automated, connected, low-carbon and shared mobility" looks at some main enablers of the transformation of road transport, such as data governance, infrastructures, communication technologies and cybersecurity, and legislation. It discusses the potential impacts on the economy, employment and skills, energy use and emissions, the sustainability of raw materials, democracy, privacy and social fairness, as well as on the urban context. It shows how the massive changes on the horizon represent an opportunity to move towards a transport system that is more efficient, safer, less polluting and more accessible to larger parts of society than the current one centred on car ownership. However, new transport technologies, on their own, won't spontaneously make our lives better without upgrading our transport systems and policies to the 21st century. The improvement of governance and the development of innovative mobility solutions will be crucial to ensure that the future of transport is cleaner and more equitable than its car-centred present.

The validation of an analytical method is a necessary step in controlling the quality of quantitative analysis. Method validation is an established process which provides documentary evidence that a system fulfils its pre-defined specification, or shows that an analytical method is acceptable for its intended purpose. The purpose of the present study was to develop and validate analytical procedures for the quantitative determination in recycled and wastewater samples of substances selected in the framework of the exploratory project iDRIP. Analyte extraction was performed using a JRC in-house developed sampling device for on-site solid phase extraction of water samples. Two instrumental methods were developed and validated: • a multi-residual method based on LC-MS/MS analysis for quantitative determination of selected contaminants of emerging concern (CECs), including: acesulfame K, sucralose, estrone, 17-estradiol, 17-ethynyl estradiol carbamazepine, 10,11-dihydro 10,11-dihydroxy carbamazepine, diclofenac, ibuprofen, sulfamethazine and sulfamethoxazole in recycled and wastewater samples; • a multi-residual method based on GC-MS analysis for quantitative determination of selected organophosphorous compounds (OPCs). Selectivity, detection and quantification limits, linearity study, matrix comparison, repeatability and intermediate precision, variability of trueness and recoveries were determined for CECs and OPC compounds., JRC.D.2-Water and Marine Resources

As previous chapters in this book have shown, urban expansion is an ongoing process with considerable impacts on the environment, the economy and quality of life. Europe, with its largely urban population, is no exception. To curtail the negative impacts and foster the positive effects of ongoing urban expansion, policies will have to be adjusted and harmonised. To do so an outlook of future land use and urbanisation trends is indispensable. Such an analysis of evolutions and functional profiles of European cities requires evaluating the impacts of continent-wide drivers and, at the same time, the effect of national and local strategies with their own priorities and plans.

This report presents the outcome of a study carried out in the frame of a wider assessment performed with the LUISA (Land Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment) modelling platform, configured in compliance with the “EU Energy, Transport and GHG emissions trends until 2050” (EU Energy Reference Scenario 2013). A new methodology has been implemented to estimate and map water requirements for energy production in Europe. In this study, the category of dedicated energy crops (ENCR) played an important role. These crops are expected to emerge as additional fuel sources within the EU28 by 2020. Water requirements in the remaining energy sectors have also been estimated in order to assess whether the introduction of these ENCR may, in any way, compete with the existing water requirements for energy production. More specifically, the study tackles the following questions: • Where and to what extent will there be potential competition with cooling water required for electricity generation related to the introduction of these crops? • How will these trends evolve over time? • How will the introduction of energy crops affect the overall water consumption trends in Europe? The analysis indicates that high irrigation requirements for ENCR are foreseen in France, Poland, Spain, eastern Germany, and regions of Italy and the UK. Substantial increases in requirements are seen for several regions from 2020 to 2030. ENCR are absent in Finland, Denmark, Greece, Malta, Cyprus and Croatia for the whole simulation period. Water consumption for cooling in electricity production has been quantified for the years 2020 and 2030 for 2 scenarios with a minimum and a maximum value. There is notable variation in overall water consumption, both over time and between the scenarios. There is an increase in cooling water consumption for most regions in both scenarios over the period 2020 to 2030, which is especially high in France for the minimum scenario. The values given by the two scenarios vary greatly due to the wide range in water consumption between the different cooling technologies assumed in the two cases. In some regions there is even up to a factor 10 difference in total consumption for cooling. As for any modelling exercise, the study presents a level of uncertainty due to the number of external models giving input and to the assumptions made. In the case of the cooling water mapping, a possible range of minimum/maximum values has been used to reflect the large variation due to the type of cooling system used by each power plant. For the energy crop water requirements we relied on estimates found in the literature. Nevertheless, the study presents an overall continental scale analysis of the potential impacts of the 2013 Energy Reference scenario, covering many of the involved sectors and provides the framework for further refinements and improvements., JRC.B.3-Territorial Development

This report presents a comprehensive analysis of dedicated energy crops (ENCR) performed with the LUISA (Land Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment) modelling platform across Europe between 2020 and 2050. LUISA is configured in compliance with the “EU Energy, Transport and GHG emissions trends until 2050” document in order to ensure that the EU meet its climate and energy targets up to 2050 (EU Reference Scenario 2013, updated LUISA configuration 2014). The spatial modelling of ENCR in LUISA requires determining a set of elements such as the land demand, availability and suitability of the land, and other land categories for the ENCR cultivation. Thus, the assessment is focused on the following steps: 1) Land accounts and dominant land use/cover flows for the expansion of energy crops at European scale, 2) A suitability analysis of the land dedicated to these crops based on suitability maps, 3) Recuperation of degraded and contaminated lands for energy purpose, 4) A detailed regional analysis per each Member State (factsheets) with a summary of the main important findings, and 5) Evaluation of energy crops’ impacts on a selection of environmental indicators (provision of ecosystem services). In LUISA, the displacement and cultivation of crops solely dedicated to energy production takes place on a specific land-use class named ‘energy crop’ (ENCR), which competes in particular with the demand for others land-uses, such as for food, feed and forest. The amount of ENCR reaches about 13,549 kha in 2050 that represents, on average, 3.6% of Europe’s total available land. This expansion occurs mainly at expenses of land for food and feed (90%). Forest and natural land (9% and 1%,) represent respectively the second and third land flows towards ENCR among total land-use changes (with these flows represented respectively 9 and 1% of all land use changes). As result of this land competition, there is an increasing shift of food and feed crops towards low quality land, due not only to the ENCR expansion but also to the growth of residential and economic-driven land uses. It should also be noted that intensive agriculture practices for ENCR production might have some negative impacts on soil, water, biodiversity, amongst others. Owing to this potential impacts, the analysis performed on the supply of a set of ecosystem services identifies some services more sensitive than others to ENCR growth. In particular, pollination potential, habitat quality for birds and also the Green-Infrastructure network are expected to decrease due to ENCR growth, while patterns for recreational opportunities and water retention services are less evident., JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessment

Cities and towns are at the core of the European economy but they are often also the places where problems related to the quality of life of citizens such as unemployment, segregation and poverty are most evident. To curtail the negative impacts and foster the positive effects of ongoing urban processes in Europe, policies have to be adjusted and harmonised to accommodate future urbanization trends. Such an analysis of the evolution of European cities requires the evaluation of impacts of continent-wide drivers and, at the same time, assessment of the effect of national and local strategies. As a contribution to this analysis of the current and future evolution of European territories (countries, macro-regions, regions or urban areas), the Directorate-General Joint Research Centre (DG JRC) of the European Commission (EC) has developed the Land-Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment (LUISA) Modelling Platform. Based on the concept of ‘dynamic land functions’, LUISA has adopted a novel approach towards activity-based modelling and endogenous dynamic allocation of population, services and activities. This report illustrates how European cities could potentially evolve over the time period 2010-2050, according to the reference configuration of the LUISA modelling platform, on the basis of a collection of spatial indicators covering several thematic fields. These spatial indicators aim to improve our understanding of urbanization and urban development processes in Europe; explore territorial dimensions of projected demographic and economic changes, and finally examine some key challenges that urban areas are or may be exposed to. Some of the key findings of this report are given below: - The proportion of the population living in cities, towns and suburbs is higher in the EU than in the rest of the world. According to the LUISA forecasts, the urban proportion will continue to increase up to 2030; subsequently slow down, and reach a relatively steady state by 2050. - In 2010, 65% of the EU population were living in Functional Urban Areas (FUA, the city and its commuting zone). This figure is expected to reach 70% by 2050. The total EU-28 population is expected to grow by 4.6%. Most of this population growth will occur particularly in FUA which will grow by an average 14%. - As of 2010, the amount of artificial areas per inhabitant in the EU-28 was estimated as 498 m2: it becomes 539 m2 in 2050 with an 8% increase. Although there is not a unique spatial pattern, land take tends to start peak at 5 km distance from the city centre. This is due to the fact that land is often less available for development within city centres and that the majority of land take therefore will occur firstly in the suburbs and then in rural areas. - By 2050, potential accessibility – as measure of economic opportunities - will be higher in the urban areas of north-western Europe, while it will not improve in lagging European regions. Urban form has a considerable impact on average travelled distances and thus potentially on the energy dependence of transport. - Green infrastructure is mainly located at the periphery of urban areas. Its share per person is generally low or very low in most of the European cities, with few exceptions. Green infrastructure per capita in FUA shows a general trend towards a decrease across the EU-28 (by approximately 13%) between 2010 and 2050. - Larger cities tend to have higher average flood risk, especially due to the higher sensitivity in terms of potential human and physical losses. The analysis herein presented is part of a wider initiative of DG JRC and DG REGIO aiming to improve the management of knowledge and sharing of information related to territorial policies, such as those concerning urban development. In this framework, the work will be further developed, covering the following main elements: - Development of the European Urban Data Platform, providing a single access point for data and indicators on the status and trends of European urban areas; - Updates of the LUISA configuration, to account for new socio-economic projections; - Support to the development of the EU Urban Agenda and related initiatives; - Provision of evidence-based support for the evaluation of territorial policies in particular to proof the role of cities in the implementation of EU priorities., JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessment

The concept of ‘dynamic land function’ is a new notion for cross-sector integration and for the representation of complex system dynamics. A land function can be societal (e.g. provision of housing, leisure and recreation), economic (e.g. provision of production factors - employment, investments, energy – or provision of manufacturing products and services – food, fuels, consumer goods, etc.) or environmental (e.g. supply of ecosystem services). Land functions are temporally and spatially dynamic, and are constrained and driven by natural, socio-economic, and techno-economic processes. Based on the concept of ‘land function’ and beyond a traditional land use model, the Land-Use based Integrated Sustainability Assessment (LUISA) modelling platform adopts a new approach towards activity-based modelling based upon the endogenous dynamic allocation of population, services and activities. The ultimate product of LUISA is a set of territorial indicators that can be grouped and combined according to the ‘land function’ of interest and/or to the sector under assessment. The herein presented indicators measure the provision of land functions in the period 2010-2050, according to the EU Reference Scenario (LUISA, updated configuration 2014), consistent with settings (economic and demographic in particular) and policies in place in 2013 (hence including the 2020 renewable energy targets). The indicators are aggregated by Member States and Regions (Administrative Units NUTS-2) and can be employed as benchmark to monitor sectorial and territorial evolutions of alternative scenarios (e.g. to simulate policy options or specific measures), and for future updates of the reference scenario, to capture policy impacts (for example when changing energy targets) and their territorial effects. This catalogue aims to provide the description of the land functions and the list of related indicators and an indicator factsheet (metadata). 30 indicators, out of the more than 50 currently produced by LUISA, are included in the first release of the catalogue. The catalogue is periodically up-dated, following the updates of the configurations of the LUISA modelling platform and the definition, computation and validation of new indicators. Indicators and basic spatial layers used for the simulations will be made available in the frame of the framework for the management of knowledge and dissemination of information being set up by the Pilot Knowledge Centre on Territorial Policies., JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessment

The ‘Land-Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment’ modelling platform (LUISA) is primarily used for the ex-ante evaluation of EC policies that have a direct or indirect territorial impact. It is based on the concept of ‘land function’ for cross-sector integration and for the representation of complex system dynamics. Beyond a traditional land use model, LUISA adopts a new approach towards activity-based modelling based upon the endogenous dynamic allocation of population, services and activities. LUISA has been applied to address the competition for land arising from the energy, transport and climate dimensions of EU policies and configured according to the EU Energy Reference scenario 2013 (updated configuration 2014) to produce high-resolution land use/cover projections up to 2050 and a related series of thematic indicators. This report describes the stocks and the main land cover/use flows (LCF) taking place in Europe in the period 2010-2050 and the processes that cause those flows, thus providing insight on how the European landscape might change if the future happens according to a reference scenario consistent with settings (economic and demographic in particular) and policies in place in 2013 (hence including in particular the 2020 renewable energy targets). Main findings: • The extent of the land for housing and leisure (urban) and industrial/commercial and services (ICS) increases, while the area of agriculture, forest and natural land decreases; • Urban and industrial land are expected to represent the highest share of net formation as % of the initial year (2010); • Energy crops appear in the model as of 2020 and are expected to reach 135,479 km2 across Europe in 2050; • Energy crops become the second most important land transformation in Europe (17%); approximately 90 % of the land consumed for energy purposes comes from land for food and feed, followed by forest and natural land; • While a large proportion of land dedicated to food and feed crops is expected to be converted into dedicated energy crops, the net land losses are very small as a results of the conversion from forest land into food and feed production; • New forest and natural land compensate in some way for quantity of losses or consumption by other uses; however the high value of the turnover indicator, reveal that those land-uses are unstable and vulnerable to the fast changes driven by economic development and climate changes, thus compromising the biodiversity and habitat conservation status; • The conversion between farming types represent 35% over the total land changes between 2010 and 2050; The results show the loss of natural and agricultural land because of ever-ongoing urbanisation and industrialization processes. The loss of natural and agricultural land for food production is even larger because of the advent of energy crops production incited by shifts in the European Energy supply system., JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessment

The impacts of current and planned policy initiatives can be simulated by using modelling tools and indicators, which help determine the effectiveness of policies in attaining targets. The Land Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment (LUISA) modelling platform was configured to assess the spatial impact of the “EU Energy Reference scenario 2013” on the efficient use of natural resources in the EU-28 in a short time period (2010-2020) and in a long term vision (2010-2050). A set of Resource Efficiency (RE) indicators were computed to measure [1] the progress towards the efficient use of land and water as a resource and [2] the performance on the actions and milestones on natural capital and ecosystems proposed in the RE roadmap, in particular biodiversity, safeguarding clean air, and land and soils. The modelling results show that by 2050: [1] the share of built-up area in the EU-28 will increase by 1%; [2] the EU-28 will use the land less efficiently; [3] the water productivity is expected to increase on average 8%; [4] the landscape fragmentation in the EU-28 will show no significant changes [5] and the PM10 concentrations in urban air and population exposed will remain constant., JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessment

The European Union is committed, through the Cohesion Policy, to contribute to a sustainable economic, social and territorial cohesion by reducing disparities between the levels of development of regions and countries of its member states. The EU's main investment policy is also responsible for mainstreaming the environment into its programmes and projects. The Land Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment Platform (LUISA) was parameterized according to a ‘Reference Scenario 2014’ to assess the spatial impact of regional and urban policy in Europe. In order to show the impacts of EU policies included in the Reference Scenario, a set of indicators were computed to measure [1] land use intensity and the urban sprawl and [2] the implication of this policy on accessibility in the EU regions. The modelling results indicated that in spite of important regional differences, the overall land use intensity will decline. The Reference Scenario also shows a general increase in urban sprawl across Europe most significantly in the main EU capital cities., JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessment

The objective of the JRC PESETA II project is to gain insights into the sectoral and regional patterns of climate change impacts in Europe by the end of this century. The study uses a large set of climate model runs and impact categories (ten impacts: agriculture, energy, river floods, droughts, forest fires, transport infrastructure, coasts, tourism, habitat suitability of forest tree species and human health). The project integrates biophysical direct climate impacts into a macroeconomic economic model, which enables the comparison of the different impacts based on common metrics (household welfare and economic activity). Under the reference simulation the annual total damages would be around €190 billion/year, almost 2% of EU GDP. The geographical distribution of the climate damages is very asymmetric with a clear bias towards the southern European regions. More than half of the overall annual EU damages are estimated to be due to the additional premature mortality (€120 billion). Moving to a 2°C world would reduce annual climate damages by €60 billion, to €120 billion (1.2% of GDP).

The objective of the JRC PESETA II project is to gain insights into the sectoral and regional patterns of climate change impacts in Europe by the end of this century. The study uses a large set of climate model runs and impact categories (ten categories: agriculture, energy, river floods, droughts, forest fires, transport infrastructure, coasts, tourism, habitat suitability of forest tree species and human health). The project integrates biophysical direct climate impacts (from eight of the impact categories) into a macroeconomic economic model, which enables the comparison of the different impacts based on common metrics (household welfare and economic activity). If the 2080s climate would happen today and without public adaptation, the EU household welfare losses would amount to around €190 billion, almost 2% of EU GDP. The geographical distribution of the climate damages is very asymmetric with a clear bias towards the southern European regions. More than half of the overall EU damages are estimated to be due to additional premature mortality (€120 billion). Moving to a 2°C world would reduce climate damages by €60 billion, to €120 billion (1.2% of GDP)., JRC.J.1-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transport

The Cohesion policy for the programming period 2014-2020 is analyzed in terms of its likely land use and environmental impacts using the Land Use Modelling Platform (LUMP). This report describes in detail the process and the methodology by which the ex-ante impact assessment was made, and presents the results for Austria, Czech Republic, Germany, and Poland. The modelling approach can provide insights on the trade-offs between economic growth, investment policies (such as the Cohesion policy), and land use and the environment. In addition, ways to mitigate potentially negative land use and environmental impacts were explored. The future development of the LUMP is discussed in view of planned future work., JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessment

The definition of the Reference Scenario, given in the Energy Trends to 2030 publication by DG ENER (2009 update ), assumes full implementation of the Climate and Energy package. The legislation included within the Climate and Energy Package is reflective of the legally binding targets to ensure that the EU meets its climate and energy targets for 2020. This scenario assumes that national targets under the Renewables directive (2009/28/EC) and the GHG Effort-sharing decision (2009/406/EC) are achieved. The Reference scenario is one of three energy trends scenarios, used so far for the Energy 2050 Roadmap Impact assessment . The scenarios are derived with the PRIMES model by a consortium led by the National Technical University of Athens (E3MLab). The PRIMES model is key to the definition of the scenarios because of its energy focus. The Reference Scenario itself is derived within PRIMES and is supported by other specialised models downstream. The purpose of this document is to describe how the LUMP was configured in order to be consistent with the PRIMES and other upstream models within the integrated modelling chain, including the incorporation of the legally binding objectives, directives and guidelines. In order to be coherent with the IA accompanying the Communication on the Energy Roadmap 2050, new policies adopted up until March 2010 were implemented in so far as possible. The implementation has not yet been finalized and this document will be refreshed and re-distributed in its final form once the Reference Scenario has been fully configured., JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessment

The Land Use Modelling Platform (LUMP) has been chosen to simulate land-use changes under a subset of scenarios (A1B). The modular structure of this platform, together with its high spatial resolution (100m), makes LUMP a suitable tool in the context of PESETAII. First, it guarantees high flexibility in adapting to the input/output interface required by the macro-economic models developed within this project. Moreover, an important added value to the modelling chain of PESETAII is the capability of taking into account specific policies with spatial repercussions., JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessment

The analysis presented in this report focuses specifically on two issues of potential concern with respect to shale gas development in EU member states using hydraulic fracturing technologies: pressure on freshwater resources, and land use competition. Potential alternative technologies, such as “dry fracking”, are not considered, because they are still at the research and development stage. We reviewed available literature in order to identify important variables that may influence the land and water requirements associated with shale gas development. We further derived a range of representative values spanning worst-, average- and best-case scenarios for each variable. We then coupled specific technology scenarios (incorporating these variables) regarding water and land use requirements for shale gas development from 2013-2028 with spatially-resolved water and land availability/demand modeling tools (i.e. using the European Land Use Modelling Platform (LUMP)). Scenario analyses (intended to represent worst-, average- and best-case assumptions) were subsequently implemented that incorporate a subset of the identified variables for shale gas development in the Lower Paleozoic Baltic-Podlasie-Lublin basin in Poland and for Germany as a whole from 2013-2028. In addition, we undertook a screening-level risk assessment of potential human and ecosystem health impacts attributable to accidental or operational release of chemicals used in hydraulic fracturing of shale formations, as well as the average gaseous emissions (per active well) associated with shale gas development activities that might be anticipated within a shale play. Finally, we developed a qualitative discussion of necessary considerations to support future air quality impact assessments for shale gas development activities., JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessment

Reducing the environmental impacts of EU production and consumption is one of the main goals of the Roadmap to a resource efficient Europe (EC, 2011a). . Additionally, the need of integrating life cycle thinking in environmental and resource policies is increasingly mentioned as strategic asset for comprehensively capture environmental dimension of sustainability. Such ambitious objectives require the development of a common, internally consistent framework for integrated sustainability assessment of European Union policies. This framework should accommodate not only a spectrum of sustainability indicators, but also should demonstrate the capacity to assess each indicator against defined sustainability thresholds and targets. This document defines the framework for the integration of the Life Cycle Indicators (EC, 2012a, 2012b, 2012c) with dynamic models, both spatially resolved and not, to the purpose of contributing to the development of an Integrated Sustainability Assessment Platform (ISAP). Three main elements can be potentially linked together in the framework of the LC Indicators: a macroeconomic model, the Land Use Modelling Platform (LUMP) (EC, 2013c) and the life cycle impact assessment methods (EC, 2012d). A description of the main elements of this framework is provided as well as discussed. As example of the potential link and mutual benefit between LCA and LUMP, the last section of the document is dedicated to the refinement of an impact assessment model (Pfister et al., 2009) for the assessment of water scarcity, on the basis of the outputs of the LUMP., JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessment

In the context of the impact assessment for the forthcoming policy document "Blueprint to safeguard Europe's waters", the European Commission has developed a common baseline scenario bringing together climate, land use and socio-economic scenarios and looking at the implications for water resources availability and use under different policy scenarios. This study was carried out by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission with the support of Stella Consulting SPRL, Brussels. It shows the impact of no-regret natural water retention measures on water quantity which can, in turn, be used to quantify ecosystem services related to water provision, water flow regulation and the moderation of extreme flows. It also contributes to the identification of multifunctional adaptation measures that reduce the vulnerability of water resources and related ecosystem services to climate change and other anthropogenic pressures and also to the Green Infrastructure strategy. Within the context of this report “no-regret” is solely based on hydrological impact. The following report “A multi-criteria optimisation of scenarios for the protection of water resources in Europe” will also address co-benefits and costs. The novelty of this study is in linking climate, landuse and hydrological scenarios and models on a pan European scale and providing a first quantitative pan-European overview of the effects of ‘green’ measures on discharge. This should encourage Member States to further explore the use of efficiency measures and foster communication between stakeholders. 12 different policy scenarios were used, addressing changes in forest and urban areas, agriculture practice, and water retention. Locally some of these scenarios were estimated to change low flows and flood discharge up to 20%. For the 21 defined macro-regions in Europe there is a clear difference in the impacts of measures and for each region the effectiveness of each scenario has been ranked in terms of increasing low flow or reducing flood peaks. It can be shown that: • The combination of climate scenarios, land use model and hydrological model shows the same relative changes regarding the used scenarios independent of the forcing climatology • no-regret natural water retention measures can contribute to increased low flows, reduced flood peaks, improve ground water recharge and decrease water stress. • In each of the 21 macro-regions a different set of measures can be effective depending on the climate, flow regime, land use and socio-economics., JRC.H.1-Water Resources

A modelling environment has been developed to assess optimum combinations of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures for continental Europe. This modelling environment consists of linking the agricultural CAPRI model, the LUMP land use model, the LISFLOOD water quantity model, the EPIC water quality model, the LISQUAL combined water quantity, quality and hydro-economic model, and a multi-criteria optimisation routine. Simulations have been carried out to assess the effects of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures on several hydro-chemical indicators, such as the Water Exploitation Index, Environmental Flow indicators, N and P concentrations in rivers, the 50-year return period river discharge as an indicator for flooding, and economic losses due to water scarcity for the agricultural sector, the manufacturing-industry sector, the energy-production sector and the domestic sector. Also, potential flood damage of a 100-year return period flood has been used as an indicator. The study shows that technically this modelling software environment can deliver optimum scenario combinations of packages of measures that improve various water quantity and water quality indicators, but that additional work is needed before final conclusions can be made using the tool. Further work is necessary, especially in the economic loss estimations, the water prices and price-elasticity, as well as the implementation and maintenance costs of individual scenarios., JRC.H.1-Water Resources

This report is an initiative of the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the science and knowledge service of the European Commission (EC), and supported by the Commission's Directorate-General for Regional and Urban Policy (DG REGIO). It highlights drivers shaping the urban future, identifying both the key challenges cities will have to address and the strengths they can capitalise on to proactively build their desired futures. The main aim of this report is to raise open questions and steer discussions on what the future of cities can, and should be, both within the science and policymaker communities. While addressing mainly European cities, examples from other world regions are also given since many challenges and solutions have a global relevance. The report is particularly novel in two ways. First, it was developed in an inclusive manner – close collaboration with the EC’s Community of Practice on Cities (CoP-CITIES) provided insights from the broader research community and city networks, including individual municipalities, as well as Commission services and international organisations. It was also extensively reviewed by an Editorial Board. Secondly, the report is supported by an online ‘living’ platform which will host future updates, including additional analyses, discussions, case studies, comments and interactive maps that go beyond the scope of the current version of the report. Steered by the JRC, the platform will offer a permanent virtual space to the research, practice and policymaking community for sharing and accumulating knowledge on the future of cities. This report is produced in the framework of the EC Knowledge Centre for Territorial Policies and is part of a wider series of flagship Science for Policy reports by the JRC, investigating future perspectives concerning Artificial Intelligence, the Future of Road Transport, Resilience, Cybersecurity and Fairness Interactive online platform : https://urban.jrc.ec.europa.eu/thefutureofcities, JRC.B.3-Territorial Development