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Species occurrences inherently include positional error. Such error can be problematic for species distribution models (SDMs), especially those based on fine‐resolution environmental data. It has been suggested that there could be a link between the influence of positional error and the width of the species ecological niche. Although positional errors in species occurrence data may imply serious limitations, especially for modelling species with narrow ecological niche, it has never been thoroughly explored. We used a virtual species approach to assess the effects of the positional error on fine‐scale SDMs for species with environmental niches of different widths. We simulated three virtual species with varying niche breadth, from specialist to generalist. The true distribution of these virtual species was then altered by introducing different levels of positional error (from 5 to 500 m). We built generalized linear models and MaxEnt models using the distribution of the three virtual species (unaltered and altered) and a combination of environmental data at 5 m resolution. The models’ performance and niche overlap were compared to assess the effect of positional error with varying niche breadth in the geographical and environmental space. The positional error negatively impacted performance and niche overlap metrics. The amplitude of the influence of positional error depended on the species niche, with models for specialist species being more affected than those for generalist species. The positional error had the same effect on both modelling techniques. Finally, increasing sample size did not mitigate the negative influence of positional error. We showed that fine‐scale SDMs are considerably affected by positional error, even when such error is low. Therefore, where new surveys are undertaken, we recommend paying attention to data collection techniques to minimize the positional error in occurrence data and thus to avoid its negative effect on SDMs, especially whe

Using long-term data on incidences of Lyme disease and tickborne encephalitis, we showed that the dynamics of both diseases in central Europe are predictable from rodent host densities and climate indices. Our approach offers a simple and effective tool to predict a tickborne disease risk 1 year in advance.

Archetypes are increasingly used as a methodological approach to understand recurrent patterns in variables and processes that shape the sustainability of social-ecological systems. The rapid growth and diversification of archetype analyses has generated variations, inconsistencies, and confusion about the meanings, potential, and limitations of archetypes. Based on a systematic review, a survey, and a workshop series, we provide a consolidated perspective on the core features and diverse meanings of archetype analysis in sustainability research, the motivations behind it, and its policy relevance. We identify three core features of archetype analysis: recurrent patterns, multiple models, and intermediate abstraction. Two gradients help to apprehend the variety of meanings of archetype analysis that sustainability researchers have developed: (1) understanding archetypes as building blocks or as case typologies and (2) using archetypes for pattern recognition, diagnosis, or scenario development. We demonstrate how archetype analysis has been used to synthesize results from case studies, bridge the gap between global narratives and local realities, foster methodological interplay, and transfer knowledge about sustainability strategies across cases. We also critically examine the potential and limitations of archetype analysis in supporting evidence-based policy making through context-sensitive generalizations with case-level empirical validity. Finally, we identify future priorities, with a view to leveraging the full potential of archetype analysis for supporting sustainable development.

In sustainability research, archetype analysis reveals patterns of factors and processes that repeatedly shape social-ecological systems. These patterns help improve our understanding of global concerns, including vulnerability, land management, food security, and governance. During the last decade, the portfolio of methods used to investigate archetypes has been growing rapidly. However, these methods differ widely in their epistemological and normative underpinnings, data requirements, and suitability to address particular research purposes. Therefore, guidance is needed for systematically choosing methods in archetype analysis. We synthesize strengths and weaknesses of key methods used to identify archetypes. Demonstrating that there is no “one-size-fits-all” approach, we discuss advantages and shortcomings of a range of methods for archetype analysis in sustainability research along gradients that capture the treatment of causality, normativity, spatial variations, and temporal dynamics. Based on this discussion, we highlight seven analytical frontiers that bear particular potential for tackling methodological limitations. As a milestone in archetype analysis, our synthesis supports researchers in reflecting on methodological implications, including opportunities and limitations related to causality, normativity, space, and time considerations in view of specific purposes and research questions. This enables innovative research designs in future archetype analysis, thereby contributing to the advancement of sustainability research and decision-making.

Information and numbers on the use and appreciation of nature are valuable information for protected area (PA) managers. A promising direction is the utilisation of social media, such as the photo-sharing website Flickr. Here we demonstrate a novel approach, borrowing techniques from machine learning (image analysis), natural language processing (Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA)) and self-organising maps (SOM), to collect and interpret >20,000 photos from the Camargue region in Southern France. From the perspective of Cultural Ecosystem Services (CES), we assessed the relationship between the use of the Camargue delta and the presence of natural elements by consulting local managers. Clustering algorithms applied to results of the LSA data revealed six distinct user groups, which included those interested in nature, ornithology, religious pilgrimage, general tourists and aviation enthusiasts. For each group, we produced high-resolution spatial and seasonal maps, which matched known recreational attractions and annual festivals in the Camargue. The accuracy of the group identification, and the spatial and temporal patterns of photo activity, in the Camargue delta were evaluated by local managers of the Camargue regional park. This study demonstrates how PA managers can harness social-media to monitor recreation and improve their management decision making.

With rising demand for biomass, cropland expansion and intensification represent the main strategies to boost agricultural production, but are also major drivers of biodiversity decline. We investigate the consequences of attaining equal global production gains by 2030, either by cropland expansion or intensification, and analyse their impacts on agricultural markets and biodiversity. We find that both scenarios lead to lower crop prices across the world, even in regions where production decreases. Cropland expansion mostly affects biodiversity hotspots in Central and South America, while cropland intensification threatens biodiversity especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, India and China. Our results suggest that production gains will occur at the costs of biodiversity predominantly in developing tropical regions, while Europe and North America benefit from lower world market prices without putting their own biodiversity at risk. By identifying hotspots of potential future conflicts, we demonstrate where conservation prioritization is needed to balance agricultural production with conservation goals.

Which ecosystem services are addressed? Timber production, crop production, crops for bioenergy use, livestock production, water quality regulation, recreation, erosion control, pollination, nitrogen retention, flood regulation

LEGATO stands for “Land-use intensity and Ecological EnGineering—Assessment Tools for risks and Opportunities in irrigated rice based production systems.”

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Land system archetypes are unique patterns of land-use intensity within prevailing environmental and socio-economic conditions that occur repeatedly across the terrestrial surface of the earth [1].

For much of the twentieth century, many or most scholarly journals in biodiversity, ecology, biogeography and conservation were owned and published by scientific societies and made available to the broader scientific community at relatively low cost. However, the past several decades have seen a dominant process of commercialization of the publication process in this field, either by commercial publishing firms taking over publication of journals owned by a society (e.g., Evolution), or by commercial publishers starting new journals to fill “niches” that were until then empty in the scholarly publishing ecosystem. Diversity and Distributions is an example of this latter category of journals, having been created by Wiley Publishers in 1993 (as Biodiversity Letters). Being a journal owned by a commercial publisher, it has always been accessed by readers via subscription, but the publication process has been free to potential authors whose work has passed peer review.

Human land-use activities have transformed most of the Earth's land surface (Foley et al 2005, Ellis 2011, Gauthier et al 2015). While land-use activities differ in many ways across the world, their combined impact is becoming a force of global importance. Consequently, sustainable land management has been identified as a key lever for achieving global sustainability. For example, six out of 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs), adopted in the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, relate directly to land management: (i) land management is key for providing goods and services for humankind relating to 'zero hunger' (SDG 2); (ii) land management is responsible for 20%–40% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relating to 'climate action' (SDG 13), and (iii) land management is a major driver of biodiversity loss relating to 'life of land' (SDG 15). Indirectly, land management affects 'affordable clean energy' (SDG 7) and 'sustainable cities and communities' (SDG 11).

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In a cross-disciplinary project (LEGATO) combining inter- and transdisciplinary methods, we quantify the dependency of rice-dominated socio-ecological systems on ecosystem functions (ESF) and the ecosystem services (ESS) the integrated system provides. In the collaboration of a large team including geo- and bioscientists, economists, political and cultural scientists, the mutual influences of the biological, climate and soil conditions of the agricultural area and its surrounding natural landscape have been analysed. One focus was on sociocultural and economic backgrounds, another on local as well as regional land use intensity and biodiversity, and the potential impacts of future climate and land use change. LEGATO analysed characteristic elements of three service strands defined by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA): (a) provisioning services: nutrient cycling and crop production; (b) regulating services: biocontrol and pollination; and (c) cultural services: cultural identity and aesthetics. However, in line with much of the current ESS literature, what the MA called supporting services is treated as ESF within LEGATO. As a core output, LEGATO developed generally applicable principles of ecological engineering (EE), suitable for application in the context of future climate and land use change. EE is an emerging discipline, concerned with the design, monitoring and construction of ecosystems and aims at developing strategies to optimise ecosystem services through exploiting natural regulation mechanisms instead of suppressing them. Along these lines LEGATO also aims to create the knowledge base for decision-making for sustainable land management and livelihoods, including the provision of the corresponding governance and management strategies, technologies and system solutions.

Irrigated rice croplands are among the world's most important agro-ecosystems. They provide food for more than 3.5 billion people and a range of other ecosystem services (ESS). However, the sustainability of rice agro-ecosystems is threatened by continuing climate and land-use changes. To estimate their combined effects on a bundle of ESS, we applied the vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL to seven study areas in the Philippines and Vietnam. We quantified future changes in the provision of four essential ESS (carbon storage, carbon sequestration, provision of irrigation water and rice production) under two climate scenarios (until 2100) and three site-specific land-use scenarios (until 2030), and examined the synergies and trade-offs in ESS responses to these drivers. Our results show that not all services can be provided in the same amounts in the future. In the Philippines and Vietnam the projections estimated a decrease in rice yields (by approximately 30%) and in carbon storage (by 15%) and sequestration (by 12%) towards the end of the century under the current land-use pattern. In contrast, the amount of available irrigation water was projected to increase in all scenarios by 10%–20%. However, the results also indicate that land-use change may partially offset the negative climate impacts in regions where cropland expansion is possible, although only at the expense of natural vegetation. When analysing the interactions between ESS, we found consistent synergies between rice production and carbon storage and trade-offs between carbon storage and provision of irrigation water under most scenarios. Our results show that not only the effects of climate and land-use change alone but also the interaction between ESS have to be considered to allow sustainable management of rice agro-ecosystems under global change.

Recent ‘New Conservation’ approaches called for more ecosystem services (ES) emphasis in conservation. We analysed data from 3757 Natura 2000 special protection areas (SPAs) and translated positive and negative impacts listed by conservation managers into indicators of the use of nine provisioning, regulating and cultural ES. Overall, the use of ES is considered by SPA managers to affect conservation goals more negatively than positively. ES associated with livestock keeping and fodder production are recorded as having the highest fraction of positive impacts on SPAs, ranging from 88% and 78% in the Boreal biogeographic region to 20% and 6% in the Mediterranean. The use of ES varied according to dominant habitat class, highlighting the dependence of specific ES on associated ecosystem functions. For instance, fibre production was the predominant ES throughout forest habitats while crop, fodder and livestock exhibit similar patterns of dominance across agricultural landscapes. In contrast, the use of wild food and recreation activities are seen as causing mainly negative effects across all habitats. Our analysis suggests that most uses of ES result in negative effects on conservation goals. These outcomes should be considered when implementing future conservation strategies.

Ecosystem services (ES), the benefits that humans obtain from nature, are of great importance for human well-being. The challenge of meeting the growing human demands for natural resources while sustaining essential ecosystem functions and resilience requires an in-depth understanding of the complex relationships between ES. These conflicting (‘trade-offs’) or synergistic (‘synergies’) relationships mean that changes in one ES can cause changes in other ES. By synthesizing the growing body of literature on ES relationships, we identified the following four main study objectives: (i) the identification and characterization of co-occurrences of ES, (ii) the identification of drivers that shape ES relationships, (iii) the exploration of biophysical constraints of landscapes and limitations to their multifunctionality, and (iv) the support of environmental planning, management and policy decisions. For each of these objectives we here describe the key concepts, including viewpoints of different disciplines, and highlight the major challenges that need to be addressed. We identified three cross-cutting themes being relevant to all four main types of studies. To help guiding researchers towards more systematic analyses of ES trade-offs and synergies, we conclude with an outlook on suggested future research priorities.

Ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation is a key but under-researched environmental factor that initiates diverse responses in plants, potentially affecting their distribution. To date, only a few macroecological studies have examined adaptations of plant species to different levels of UV-B. Here, we combined herbarium specimens of Hieracium pilosella L. and Echium vulgare L. with a novel UV-B dataset to examine differences in leaf hair traits between the plants’ native and alien ranges. We analysed scans of 336 herbarium specimens using standardized measurements of leaf area, hair density (both species) and hair length (H. pilosella only). While accounting for other bioclimatic variables (i.e. temperature, precipitation) and effects of herbivory, we examined whether UV-B exposure explains the variability and geographical distribution of these traits in the native (Northern Hemisphere) vs. the alien (Southern Hemisphere) range. UV-B explained the largest proportion of the variability and geographical distribution of hair length in H. pilosella (relative influence 67.1%), and hair density in E. vulgare (66.2%). Corresponding with higher UV-B, foliar hairs were 25% longer for H. pilosella and 25% denser for E. vulgare in records from the Southern as compared to those from the Northern Hemisphere. However, focusing on each hemisphere separately or controlling for its effect in a regression analysis, we found no apparent influence of UV-B radiation on hair traits. Thus, our findings did not confirm previous experimental studies which suggested that foliar hairs may respond to higher UV-B intensities, presumably offering protection against detrimental levels of radiation. We cannot rule out UV-B radiation as a possible driver because UV-B radiation was the only considered variable that differed substantially between the hemispheres, while bioclimatic conditions (e.g. temperature, precipitation) and other considered variables (herbivory damage, collection date) were at similar lev

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We used a species distribution model to characterize habitat use by red wolves, Canis rufus, on the Albemarle Peninsula of North Carolina, USA. Using more than 4,000 VHF telemetry locations of 178 individual animals from 1999–2008, we quantified habitat use and modeled potential habitat suitability of red wolves. Areas of agriculture where secondary road density was high (up to 1 km/km2) and human population density was low (less than 1.67 individuals/km2) were most suitable. Our study supports the baseline knowledge of red wolf suitable habitat, and shows that red wolves will use habitats altered by humans and occupied by humans at low densities. This research represents the use of the most comprehensive red wolf VHF telemetry dataset for habitat suitability modeling to date, and the results should contribute to the growing knowledge of suitable red wolf habitat. This knowledge is critical to identifying future reintroduction sites and protecting the future of this species.

Much of our knowledge about land use and ecosystem services in interrelated social-ecological systems is derived from place-based research. While local and regional case studies provide valuable insights, it is often unclear how relevant this research is beyond the study areas. Drawing generalized conclusions about practical solutions to land management from local observations and formulating hypotheses applicable to other places in the world requires that we identify patterns of land systems that are similar to those represented by the case study. Here, we utilize the previously developed concept of land system archetypes to investigate potential transferability of research from twelve regional projects implemented in a large joint research framework that focus on issues of sustainable land management across four continents. For each project, we characterize its project archetype, i.e. the unique land system based on a synthesis of more than 30 datasets of land-use intensity, environmental conditions and socioeconomic indicators. We estimate the transferability potential of project research by calculating the statistical similarity of locations across the world to the project archetype, assuming higher transferability potentials in locations with similar land system characteristics. Results show that areas with high transferability potentials are typically clustered around project sites but for some case studies can be found in regions that are geographically distant, especially when values of considered variables are close to the global mean or where the project archetype is driven by large-scale environmental or socioeconomic conditions. Using specific examples from the local case studies, we highlight the merit of our approach and discuss the differences between local realities and information captured in global datasets. The proposed method provides a blueprint for large research programs to assess potential transferability of place-based studies to other geogr

Potential trade-offs between providing sufficient food for a growing human population in the future and sustaining ecosystems and their services are driven by various biophysical and socio-economic parameters at different scales. In this study, we investigate these trade-offs by using a three-step interdisciplinary approach. We examine (1) how the expected global cropland expansion might affect food security in terms of agricultural production and prices, (2) where natural conditions are suitable for cropland expansion under changing climate conditions, and (3) whether this potential conversion to cropland would affect areas of high biodiversity value or conservation importance. Our results show that on the one hand, allowing the expansion of cropland generally results in an improved food security not only in regions where crop production rises, but also in net importing countries such as India and China. On the other hand, the estimated cropland expansion could take place in many highly biodiverse regions, pointing out the need for spatially detailed and context-specific assessments to understand the possible outcomes of different food security strategies. Our multidisciplinary approach is relevant with respect to the Sustainable Development Goals for implementing and enforcing sustainable pathways for increasing agricultural production, and ensuring food security while conserving biodiversity and ecosystem services.