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This study aims to compare the market value of private firms and publicly listed small and medium-sized firms (SMEs) in alternative stock markets through a private discount approach with estimates of value based on discounted cash flow projections and along with a comparable multiples approach. The valuation methodology applied in this study yielded a final sample that included 232 observations between public and private companies in the Spanish market. To calculate the discount, we apply the different approaches of discounted cash flow and multiples, such as valuation, earnings, book value, and revenue. Our results conclude there is no private discount, instead, the outcomes of this article suggest a premium over public firms for some ratios. The negative private company discounts mean a premium and, on the other hand, some multiples suggest a discount according to the method of valuation. This paper proves private discounts resulted does not have any comparable value within the same country although all firms in Spain use the same currency. We value the discounted cash flows of our forecasts using a discount rate based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), so our study can also be viewed as a test sensitivity of CAPM-based approaches to equity risk premium, terminal value, and growth rate. Furthermore, we compare historical transaction multiples of privately held companies with transaction multiples of similar publicly held firms.

La definición y la administración de las finanzas de un emprendimiento son bases de vital importancia para que posteriormente la idea prospere y se constituya una empresa competitiva y sostenible en el tiempo. En consideración a que en el mercado del emprendimiento se presentan barreras que dificultan la construcción de una start-up (una empresa emergente), en este trabajo se identifican cuáles son los instrumentos que generan vínculos entre las finanzas y el gobierno corporativo, a fin de proporcionar sugerencias e ideas para aplicarlas y superar estos obstáculos. Para este propósito se tomaron datos históricos de empresas de la misma naturaleza y exitosas financieramente, que aplicaron buenas prácticas de gobierno corporativo y son referentes en la actualidad., The definition and administration of the finances of a venture are vitally important bases so that the idea can later prosper and become a competitive and sustainable company over time. Considering that in the entrepreneurship market there are barriers that hinder the construction of a startup, through this work the instruments that generate links between finance and corporate governance are identified, in order to provide suggestions and ideas to apply them and overcome these obstacles. For this purpose, historical data was taken from companies of the same nature and financially successful, that applied good corporate governance practices and are currently benchmarks.

Esta investigación evaluó si existe alguna relación entre la calificación ESG de las compañías con su valor en el mercado y su rendimiento financiero. Para validar esta hipótesis, se analizó la información de 143 compañías latinoamericanas relacionadas con el sector de consumo discrecional, en el período 2012-2021, con frecuencia anual. Por medio de regresiones OLS, se encontró que la calificación ESG tiene un efecto estadísticamente significativo y positivo sobre el desempeño financiero medido por la Q de Tobin, que muestra que el mercado reconoce una prima sobre el valor de mercado en aquellas compañías que poseen puntuación ESG. Adicionalmente, este trabajo encontró que tener una calificación ESG más alta no tiene un efecto significativo sobre el desempeño financiero de las empresas analizadas, medido a través del ROE y ROA. Sin embargo, por medio de pruebas de diferencias de media usando el test de Welch, se observó que las compañías que implementan prácticas ESG tienen mejor desempeño financiero que aquellas que no implementan ninguna de estas prácticas. Estos resultados indican que, si bien el desempeño de ESG puede ser importante para el valor de mercado general de una empresa, la falta de una relación significativa entre el ROE y el ROA frente a las calificaciones ESG destaca que estas no deben verse como el único determinante del desempeño financiero y que se deben tener en cuenta otros factores, tales como la gestión eficiente de costos, el apalancamiento y las condiciones del mercado., This investigation evaluated whether there is any relationship between the ESG rating of companies with their market value and their financial performance. To validate this hypothesis, information from 143 Latin American companies related to the consumer discretionary sector was analyzed, in the period 2012-2021, on an annual basis. Through OLS regressions, it was found that the ESG rating has a statistically significant and positive effect on financial performance measured by Tobin's Q, showing that the market recognizes a premium over market value in those Companies that have an ESG score. Additionally, this work found that having a higher ESG rating does not have a significant effect on the financial performance of the companies analyzed, measured through ROE and ROA. However, through mean difference tests using the Welch test, it was observed that companies that implement ESG practices have better financial performance than those that do not implement any of these practices. These results indicate that while ESG performance can be important to a company’s overall market value, the lack of a meaningful relationship between ROE and ROA versus ESG ratings highlights that ESG ratings should not be viewed as the sole determinant of financial performance and that other factors must be taken into account, such as efficient cost management, leverage and market conditions.

Treballs Finals del Màster de Ciències Actuarials i Financeres, Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, Universitat de Barcelona, Curs: 2022-2023, Tutor: Dr. Luis Ortiz Gracia, Given the Spanish housing and mortgage market, there is an important incentive for young property buyers to exceed the debt-to-income (DTI) ratio, using a loophole in the database, CIRBE. The objective of this paper is to analyze whether there could be a possibility of a loophole in the system and therefore how it could affect the calculation of regulatory capital for credit risk requirements. The main hypothesis is that if this practice is commonly used by the borrowers, then there could be a significant difference between the VaR calculated by the banks and the actual VaR needed to cover the regulatory capital.

This article aims to identify the economic value drivers for Brazilian agricultural cooperatives. To this end, we analyzed the potential value drivers for agricultural cooperatives in Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul using panel data regression, considering data from 2008 to 2016. The results showed that net margin, basic purchasing power, investment in fixed assets, circulating assets X sales margin, fixed asset turnover, net revenue, and number of members are the economic value drivers for Brazilian agricultural cooperatives. Moreover, a dynamic panel based on generalized method of moments (GMM) was used to check the robustness of the relationships. With these results, managers and members of agricultural cooperatives can focus their efforts and decisions on maximizing economic value for associated farmers.

tablas ; 28 cm. Hoy en día, en la valoración de empresas se están involucrando una serie de factores internos y externos, tangibles e intangibles, económicos, sociales, tecnológicos, productivos, laborales, legales, de mercado, entre otros, que obligan a que las compañías ajusten el cálculo del valor. Ante las dinámicas recientes, el presente documento busca reunir las tendencias actuales de la literatura relacionada con la valoración de empresas y teniendo en cuenta que el método de flujo de caja descontado despierta interés en los autores, se pretende hacer una caracterización del mismo, así como un análisis de las tendencias que permitan orientar al lector en los nuevos enfoques de valoración desde los métodos de FCD. En cuanto a la metodología, se realiza una revisión documental de la literatura científica desarrollada en torno al tema de revisión para identificar los artículos más importantes y seleccionar un portafolio bibliográfico relevante. Consideraciones generales.-- Pregunta de investigación.-- Objetivo de investigación.-- Justificación.-- Marco referencial.-- Metodología.-- Resultados.-- Conclusiones.-- Recomendaciones.-- Bibliografía. Especialización Especialista en Gerencia Financiera Especialización en Gerencia Financiera

This article aims to compare distinct metrics of the value at risk (VaR), differing from prior studies with respect about compare three asset categories belonging to seven countries. Since VaR inception, several approaches were developed to improve the loss estimation accuracy. However, there is hardly a universal consensus on which approach is the most appropriate, since VaR depends on statistical properties of the target asset and the market in which it is traded. It is relevant to compare the results obtained not only among the assets, but also among the markets in which they are traded, considering their specifics properties to verify if there is any pattern of the methods for the data. Considering the three asset categories, the semiparametric and non-parametric models obtained the lowest rejections number. It was also found that the models tested were not effective for the estimation of exchange rate VaR, which may be due to more relevant risks than the market in it asset price formation. Five models belonging to the parametric, semiparametric, and non-parametric approaches were tested. The analyses were divided in two, aiming to test the VaRs performances in distinct economic cycles; the first analyses considered a 1,000 days estimation window, while the second one considered a 252 days estimation window. To validated the results statistically, were applied the Kupiec and the Christoffersen tests. The results show that the conditional VaR and historical simulation have the best performance to estimate VaR. Comparing the markets, Chinese assets were the ones with the highest average number of tests rejections, which can be a consequence of its closed economy. Finally, it was found that shorter estimation window tends to perform better for high volatility assets, while longer window tends for lower volatility assets. RESUMO O objetivo deste artigo é comparar diferentes métricas de valor em risco (VaR), distinguindo-se de estudos anteriores na medida em que compara três categorias de ativos pertencentes a sete países. Desde a concepção do VaR, foram desenvolvidas várias abordagens para melhorar a precisão da estimativa de perdas. Entretanto, praticamente inexiste um consenso universal sobre qual abordagem é a mais apropriada, uma vez que o VaR depende das propriedades estatísticas do ativo alvo e do mercado no qual este é negociado. É importante comparar os resultados obtidos não apenas entre os ativos, mas também entre os mercados em que são negociados, considerando suas propriedades específicas para verificar se existe algum padrão dos métodos para os dados. Considerando as três categorias de ativos, os modelos semiparamétrico e não paramétrico obtiveram o menor número de rejeições. Verificou-se também que os modelos testados não foram eficazes para a estimação do VaR da taxa de câmbio, o que pode ser devido a riscos mais relevantes do que o mercado na formação do preço do ativo. Foram testados cinco modelos pertencentes às abordagens paramétrica, semiparamétrica e não paramétrica. As análises foram divididas em duas, com o intuito de testar os desempenhos dos VaRs em diferentes ciclos econômicos; as primeiras análises consideraram uma janela de estimação de 1.000 dias, enquanto as segundas consideraram uma janela de estimativa de 252 dias. A fim de validar estatisticamente os resultados, foram aplicados os testes de Kupiec e Christoffersen. Os resultados mostram que o VaR condicional e a simulação histórica apresentam o melhor desempenho para estimar o VaR. Comparando-se os mercados, os ativos chineses foram os que apresentaram o maior número médio de rejeições de testes, o que pode ser consequência de sua economia fechada. Por fim, constatou-se que a janela de estimação mais curta tende a apresentar um melhor desempenho para ativos de alta volatilidade, enquanto a janela mais longa tende a ter um melhor desempenho para ativos com menor volatilidade.

Esta dissertação tem como tema principal a identificação de formas de geração de valor pelo departamento jurídico a partir dos indicadores de desempenho que utilizam. Tomaremos, como ponto de partida, o mapeamento dos principais indicadores de desempenho já utilizados pelos gestores jurídicos das montadoras instaladas no Brasil. O mapeamento foi realizado mediante entrevistas semiestruturadas com os gestores do departamento jurídico das montadoras. Em seguida, os indicadores serão divididos em grupos e analisados, a fim de se identificar os principais desafios enfrentados, os benefícios colhidos e os exemplos de utilização para demonstrar o valor gerado ou potencial de valor gerado pela atuação do departamento jurídico. O estudo revelou que os indicadores se mostram capazes para demonstrar valor gerado pela atividade desenvolvida pelos advogados internos. Os departamentos jurídicos, à sua maneira, já utilizam parte dos indicadores para demonstrar o resultado do seu trabalho, havendo espaço para melhorias e exploração de outras formas de utilizar os indicadores para dar maior visibilidade aos valores gerados, aumentando a percepção de contribuição e importância do departamento jurídico para a montadora. This thesis has as main theme the identification of forms to create value by the legal department by using the key performance indicators. As a starting point, we shall map the main key performance indicators currently used by the legal department managers of all automakers installed in Brazil. The map will be carried out through a semi-structured interviews with the managers of the legal department of the automakers. Then, the indicators will be divided in groups and analyzed, identifying the main challenges faced, benefits collected and examples of how to use it to demonstrate the value added or potential value added by the performance of the legal department. The study shown the indicators are capable to demostrate the value add by the activitives performed by the in house lawyers. The legal departments, in its own way, already use some indicators to share the outcomes of its own performance, notwithstanding there is space for improuvement and application of other alternatives to use the indicators to give more visibility to the value generated by them, increasing the perception of contribution and relevancy of the legal department for the company.

CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior Nesta investigação, partimos da compreensão de que o setor de seguros é uma fração do capital que possui extensas e diversas imbricações com distintos momentos do movimento de acumulação ampliada do capital e de metamorfoses do valor, cumprindo funcionalidades essenciais até mesmo nos primórdios do processo de acumulação capitalista. O movimento da realidade nos indicou que o setor de seguros possui potencialidade para repor perdas individuais da classe capitalista oriundas do circuito da produção e da realização do valor, o que inclui o cenário em que o processo de valorização pode não se realizar. O setor de seguros movimenta uma quantidade massiva de valor (e de suas metamorfoses) em sua forma monetária. Os fundos financeiros geridos pelas seguradoras revelaram-se como grandes fundos coletivos privados rentáveis e sempre em busca de valorização pela classe capitalista do setor de seguros. Diante desta questão e fundamentados da teoria marxiana do valor, elaboramos a tese de que o setor de seguros realiza função fundamental de redistribuição de capital entre a classe capitalista por meio da concentração de capital monetário que realiza. Desta função fundamental se desdobram tantas outras, como o curso desta pesquisa demonstra, pois, através da expansão de atividades securitárias (como a securitização de ativos financeiros) e/ou formas de transacionar seguro, assim como da constante imbricação com o capital bancário, tem-se a possibilidade de este setor do capital ampliar suas formas de lucratividade. Isso ocorre principalmente porque permite ao capital, diante de alguma interrupção em seu processo de valorização, a possibilidade de continuar o seu ciclo a partir da redistribuição de capitais individuais por meio de uma apólice de seguro/resseguro. Tal funcionalidade transformou-se historicamente e acompanha o desenvolvimento do sistema capitalista de produção, mas que, sob o avanço da acumulação capital-imperialista e da promoção de expropriações secundárias em países como o Brasil, pode alçar funções redistributivas no movimento global de reprodução do valor ao concentrar capitais de origens distintas por meio de operações financeiras multinacionais. In this investigation, we start from the understanding that the insurance industry is a fraction of capital that has extensive and diverse imbrications with different moments of the movement of expanded capital accumulation and metamorphoses of value, fulfilling essential functions even in the beginnings of the capitalist accumulation process. The movement of reality showed us that the insurance sector has the potential to replace individual losses of the capitalist class arising from the production circuit and the realization of value, which includes the scenario where the valuation process may not take place. The insurance industry moves a massive amount of value (and its metamorphoses) into its monetary form. The financial funds managed by insurance companies proved to be large profitable private collective funds and always in search of appreciation by the capitalist class of the insurance sector. Faced with this question and based on the Marxian theory of value, we developed the thesis that the insurance sector performs a fundamental function of capital redistribution among the capitalist class through the concentration of monetary capital that it performs. From this fundamental function, many others unfold, as the course of this research demonstrates, because through the expansion of insurance activities (such as the securitization of financial assets) and/or ways of transacting insurance, as well as the constant imbrication with banking capital, we have the possibility of this sector of capital to expand its forms of profitability. Mainly because it allows capital, in the face of some interruption in its valuation process, the possibility of continuing its cycle from the redistribution of individual capital through an insurance/reinsurance policy. This functionality has been historically transformed and accompanies the development of the capitalist system of production, but under the advance of capital-imperialist accumulation and the promotion of secondary expropriations in countries like Brazil, it can achieve redistributive functions in the global movement of reproduction of value to the concentrating capital from different sources through multinational financial operations.

Este libro realizado por la Catedra de Economía de la Salud es fruto de la colaboración desde el año 2008 entre dos entidades públicas universitarias, la Facultad de Medicina (Departamento de Farmacología y Terapéutica) y la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas (Departamento de Economía Aplicada: estadística y econometría). Este documento técnico, es el segundo y forma parte de una serie de publicaciones que giran en torno al uso y evaluación de los medicamentos y tecnologías sanitarias desde una perspectiva multidisciplinar a partir de las herramientas que aporta la Economía de la Salud, en general, y la Farmacoeconomía en especial, siempre teniendo en cuenta los Resultados en Salud que se obtienen en diversas patologías fundamentalmente crónicas o de gran impacto en la salud de la población. Fruto de esta colaboración es este segundo Informe Técnico en el que se aborda de forma concisa y clara cuales son los retos a los que enfrentamos debido los cambios demográficos sobrevenidos desde una faceta social y económica, sin olvidar la vertiente de salud pública, analizando también cual es el verdadero valor de las vacunas efectivas como el caso que nos ocupa: la vacunación contra el Herpes Zóster. Junto con las mejoras sociales, económicas, demográficas, sanitarias y epidemiológicas, sin duda los medicamentos (y por ende las vacunas) constituyen una de las innovaciones que más han contribuido al bienestar de la sociedad a lo largo de nuestra historia reciente, ayudando a mejorar sustancialmente la esperanza de vida, el estado de salud y la calidad de vida de las personas. Nuestro deseo y objetivo al realizar este documento es aportar un nuevo enfoque en la evaluación de los medicamentos y tecnologías sanitarias basado más en el Valor (social que genera) que en el Gasto (económico que ocasiona) que debe entenderse en este caso como una inversión en un bien público.

Treballs Finals del Màster en Oficial en Empresa Internacional / International Business, Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, Universitat de Barcelona. Curs: 2020-2022. Tutor: Martí Sagarra Garcia, This paper provides a comparison of two key players in the IT industry, Microsoft and Alphabet, from a financial point of view. After analysing the IT industry and introducing the main theoretical concepts of the paper, the study gives a general overview of the two tech giants and compares their business models focusing on how they create and capture value. Furthermore, the case study includes a calculation of financial ratios using secondary data and explains the effect of the Coronavirus pandemic on the companies’ financial performance. Finally, their capital structure and their alleged anti-competitive actions are discussed, outlining two court cases of great importance and their consequences on stock prices.

En este estudio se investiga la generación de valor de las acciones pertenecientes al Mercado Integrado Latinoamericano (MILA) contrastando el Rendimiento sobre el Capital Invertido y el costo promedio ponderado de capital. Para esto, se seleccionó el índice más representativo de cada mercado; posteriormente, se analizaron los estados financieros y los hechos relevantes de cada una de las compañías y de los sectores que los componen para, finalmente, calcular y comparar estos dos indicadores. Se obtuvo que los únicos países que generan valor son Perú, con 3,94 %, y Colombia, con 0,09 %. Mientras que para México y Chile el WACC supera al ROIC en 1,66 % y 0,42 %, respectivamente. Estos resultados pueden hacer que inversionistas internacionales vean poco atractivo el mercado latinoamericano y que se fuguen capitales a mercados con mejor desempeño. This study investigates the value generation of the stocks traded in the Mercado Integrado Latinoamericano (more commonly known as MILA). We compare the Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC). We focus on the most representative index of each market. Our results show that the only countries that create value are: Perú with 3.94 % and Colombia with 0.09 %. While for Mexico and Chile, the WACC exceeds the ROIC by 1.66 % and 0.42 % respectively. These results may cause international investors to consider the Latin American market uninteresting and a capital outflow to markets with better performance.

This paper examines the performance of several state-of-the-art deep learning techniques for exchange rate forecasting (deep feedforward network, convolutional network and a long short-term memory). On the one hand, the configuration of the different architectures is clearly detailed, as well as the tuning of the parameters and the regularisation techniques used to avoid overfitting. On the other hand, we design an out-of-sample forecasting experiment and evaluate the accuracy of three different deep neural networks to predict the US/UK foreign exchange rate in the days after the Brexit took effect. Of the three configurations, we obtain the best results with the deep feedforward architecture. When comparing the deep learning networks to time-series models used as a benchmark, the obtained results are highly dependent on the specific topology used in each case. Thus, although the three architectures generate more accurate predictions than the time-series models, the results vary considerably depending on the specific topology. These results hint at the potential of deep learning techniques, but they also highlight the importance of properly configuring, implementing and selecting the different topologies.

El objetivo de esta tesis es ofrecer evidencia empírica relevante sobre los efectos económicos de la estrategia corporativa de CVC. Para ello se han realizado tres trabajos de investigación que han sido publicados en revistas científicas, y que han dado respuesta a las siguientes cuestiones de investigación: ¿Cómo influyen las prácticas sostenibles de CVC en el resultado de las compañías? ¿Qué impacto tienen dichas prácticas en la reputación corporativa de las empresas que las practican? ¿Cómo se podría mejorar la medición de la productividad de la cadena de valor en el ámbito de la CVC? La presente investigación utiliza dos entornos sectoriales distintos. Para abordar las dos primeras cuestiones se ha empleado una muestra de compañías del sector turístico, y para la tercera, una muestra de empresas del sector industrial. Los resultados sugieren que las empresas turísticas que aplican CVC logran un mayor desempeño financiero y una mejor reputación corporativa. Estos hallazgos representan una contribución a la literatura y arrojan luz sobre cómo implementar de manera eficiente prácticas de CVC generando simultáneamente beneficios económicos y sociales. Por su parte, nuestros resultados sobre medición de la productividad indican que determinadas variables relacionadas con la gestión y el ámbito financiero son las que presentan una mayor significatividad. También que las técnicas de redes neuronales artificiales son muy robustas para la identificación de dichas variables.

El mercado de valores se ve afectado por muchos tipos de factores, como el sentimiento del mercado, ir al alza (bulls) o a la baja (bears), el comportamiento de la economía o eventos políticos inesperados. Por tal razón, no es posible predecir su comportamiento, lo que significa que no es posible decidir cuándo entrar o cuando salir con certeza. Una aproximación como la del aprendizaje profundo reforzado, la cual puede emular la experiencia de un negociador (trader) quien no necesariamente predice precios, sino, momentos de entrada y salida del mercado, sería una opción viable. El presente trabajo buscó implementar una aproximación de aprendizaje profundo reforzado al trading de la bolsa (bitcoins, acciones y commodities), que haya demostrado resultados positivos en la literatura con retornos positivos sobre la inversión. El bot, resultado de este trabajo, obtuvo una rentabilidad del 5%. Estos resultados positivos abren la puerta a intentar nuevas aproximaciones que incluyan nuevas combinaciones en la forma de interpretar indicadores para encontrar estrategias ganadoras que aumenten la rentabilidad., The stock market is affected by many types of factors, such as market sentiment, going upwards (bulls) or downwards (bears), the behavior of the economy, or unexpected political events. By For this reason, it is not possible to predict its behavior, which means that it is not possible to decide when to enter or when to exit with certainty. An approach such as deep reinforcement learning, which can emulate the experience of a negotiator (trader) who does not necessarily predict prices, but, market entry and exit times, would be a viable option. The present work sought to implement a reinforced deep learning approach to stock trading (bitcoins, stocks, and commodities), which has shown positive results in the literature with returns positive on investment. The bot, the result of this work, obtained a return of 5%. These positive results open the door to trying new approaches that include new combinations in the way of interpreting indicators to find winning strategies that increase profitability.

We estimate Growth-at-Risk (GaR) statistics for the US economy using daily regressors. We show that the relative importance, in terms of forecasting power, of financial and real variables is time varying. Indeed, the optimal forecasting weights of these types of variables were clearly different during the Global Financial Crisis and the recent Covid-19 crisis, which reflects the dissimilar nature of the two crises. We introduce the LASSO and the Elastic Net into the family of mixed data sampling models used to estimate GaR and show that these methods outperform past candidates explored in the literature. The role of the VXO and ADS indicators was found to be very relevant, especially in out-of-sample exercises and during crisis episodes. Overall, our results show that daily information for both real and financial variables is key for producing accurate point and tail risk nowcasts and forecasts of economic activity.

We examine the relationship between currency and commodity returns around the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. We find that the expected positive contemporaneous relationship between currency and commodity returns reverses and becomes negative during this period of extreme geopolitical risks. In addition to commodity returns, currency returns around the invasion of Ukraine are significantly affected by geopolitical factors, particularly geographic distance to the war. Our results indicate that a war between two major commodity-exporting countries significantly affects global currency pricing.

A través de la presente monografía se presentan los instrumentos financieros que permiten la inversión en el mercado de valores de Colombia, analizando la normatividad local que rige a los fondos de inversión colectiva, a las sociedades comisionistas de bolsa, a las acciones, y a los principales instrumentos financieros derivados. Con lo anterior se pretende establecer si dicha regulación puede considerarse adecuada para promover el desarrollo del mercado financiero colombiano, determinando cuáles son las alternativas de inversión existentes, y analizando de qué forma se podrían realizar inversiones por medio de estos instrumentos., The present monograph presents the financial instruments that allow investment in the Colombian stock market, analyzing the local regulations governing mutual funds, broker-dealer company, shares, and the main derivatives and financial instruments. The purpose is to establish whether such regulation can be considered adequate to promote the development of the Colombian financial market, determining which are the existing investment alternatives, and analyzing how investments could be made through these instruments.

Las coberturas cambiarias juegan un papel fundamental en el sector empresarial en la medida que impacta el valor de la empresa debido a la generación de flujos de caja estables, lo que permite escoger oportunidades de inversión y crecimiento en cualquier momento (Bekaert & Hodrick, 2012a). Así mismo, algunas investigaciones como la de Luo & Wang (2018); Giraldo-Prieto et al., (2017) ; Bartram et al., (2011), Lee (2019), Luo & Wang (2018) afirman que el uso de derivados puede tener incidencia positiva en el valor de la empresa. En este sentido, el presente estudio busca analizar el impacto que podría generar el uso de coberturas cambiarias en la generación de valor para una firma de consultoría perteneciente a la industria tecnológica en Colombia y que exporta el 50% de sus servicios. La metodología empleada incluye el desarrollo de un modelo de simulación Monte Carlo con el fin de medir los posibles impactos que pueden tener las decisiones al realizar Forwards en los principales indicadores de valor para la compañía., Currency hedges play a fundamental role in companies due to the impact that it has on the company value as a result of stable cash flows, which allows choosing investment and growth opportunities at any time (Bekaert, G., & Hodrick, R. (2012, P 609). Likewise, some research according to Luo & Wang (2018); Giraldo-Prieto et al., (2017) ; Bartram et al., (2011), Lee (2019). Luo & Wang (2018) affirms that the use of derivatives can have a positive impact on financial performance. This study aims to analyze the impact that the use of currency hedges could generate value for a technology company in Colombia where exports are more than 50% of its services. The methodology includes the development of a Monte Carlo simulation model to analyze the possible impacts that the decisions to negotiate Forwards may have on the main value indicators of the company.

Durante un periodo de pandemia, se espera que aumente la incertidumbre sobre la evolución de la economía, condicionando las decisiones económicas de los individuos. Este artículo estudia qué factores influyen en la aparición de incertidumbre económica subjetiva y cuáles son las expectativas económicas de las personas. Se analiza el impacto de la pandemia sobre la economía doméstica y la incertidumbre subjetiva que manifiestan los individuos sobre la situación económica futura de sus hogares a partir de un conjunto de factores socioeconómicos que no pueden tenerse en cuenta en los estudios macroeconómicos sobre la incertidumbre. Se utilizan datos de una encuesta realizada en Octubre de 2021 tomando una muestra representativa de población residente en Cataluña (España) con un total de 1.604 personas entrevistadas. Los resultados sugieren que, cuando se controla por el resto de factores, los individuos en hogares con mayor capacidad de ahorro son los que expresan menor incertidumbre respecto a su situación económica futura y las mujeres muestran una mayor incertidumbre subjetiva que los hombres. Este estudio halla evidencias de que existe una asociación entre la edad de los entrevistados y las expectativas económicas, siendo las personas de mayor edad las más pesimistas. Sin embargo, se concluye que la edad no se asocia a más incertidumbre subjetiva, lo que significa que no se ha producido un deterioro de la confianza entre las personas mayores.

Bilinear regression models involving a nonlinear interaction term are applied in many fields (e.g., Goodman’s RC model, Lee-Carter mortality model or CAPM financial model). In many of these contexts data often exhibit extreme values. We propose the use of bilinear models to estimate the median of the conditional distribution in the presence of extreme values. The aim of this paper is to provide alternative methods to estimate median bilinear models. A calibration strategy based on an iterative estimation process of a sequence of median linear regression is developed. Mean and median bilinear models are compared in two applications with extreme observations. The first application deals with simulated data. The second application refers to Spanish mortality data involving years with atypical high mortality (Spanish flu, civil war and HIV/AIDS). The performance of the median bilinear model was superior to that of the mean bilinear model. Median bilinear models may be a good alternative to mean bilinear models in the presence of extreme values when the centre of the conditional distribution is of interest. &nbsp

FAPEMIG -Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais Apreciação teórica acerca do conceito de Desenvolvimento Geográfico Desigual. Orientador: Gustavo Soares Iorio. Procuramos mostrar que a ideia do Desenvolvimento Geográfico Desigual (DGD) não é a melhor forma de abordar o caráter espacial do valor. Para compreender desta maneira o DGD, fizemos uma analises crítico das teorias de três geógrafos contemporâneos preocupados pela forma espacial e temporal do desenvolvimento do capital. A partir desta constatação estudamos as diferentes teorias de imperialismo para poder entender de maneira critica o DGD tendo como premissa a teoria de imperialismo proposta por Leonardo Leite, que tem como tese central: a transferência de valor é a determinação essencial do imperialismo. Após de entender o que são as transferência de valor, no nível de abstração próprio da categoria apropriação de valores, compreendemos que nesse nível de abstração também se encontrava o território, uma categoria geográfica, que tem sua forma de valor na dimensão espacial como apropriação do espaço geográfico, configurando-se como particularidade geográfica do valor. Com isso defendemos que o território é uma categoria geográfica determinada pelo valor. Palavras-chave: Valor. Desenvolvimento do capital. Transferência geográfica de valor. Território. Capital. We try to show that the idea of Uneven Geographical Development (DGD) is not the best way to approach the spatial character of value. To understand the DGD in this way, we made a critical analysis of the theories of three contemporary geographers concerned with the spatial and temporal form of capital development. From this observation, we study how different theories of imperialism to be able to critically understand the DGD having as premise the theory of imperialism proposed by Leonardo Leite, whose central thesis is: the transfer of value is the essential determination of imperialism. After understanding what value transfers are, at the level of abstraction proper to the appropriation of values category, we understand that at this level of abstraction the territory was also found, a geographic category, which has its form of value in the spatial dimension as appropriation of the geographic space, configuring itself as the geographic particularity of the value. With that we defend that the territory is a geographic category determined by the value. Keywords: Value. Capital development. Geographic transfer of value. Territory. Capital.

Evaluating value at risk (VaR) for a firm's returns during periods of financial turmoil is a challenging task because of the high volatility in the market. We propose estimating conditional VaR and expected shortfall (ES) for a given firm's returns using quantile regression with cross-sectional (CSQR) data about other firms operating in the same market. An evaluation using US market data between 2000 and 2020 shows that our approach has certain advantages over a CAViaR model. Identification of low-risk firms and a reduction in computing times are additional advantages of the new method described.