Search

To assess the potential of radar rainfall nowcasting for early warning, nowcasts for 659 events were used to construct discharge forecasts for 12 Dutch catchments. Four open-source nowcasting algorithms were tested: Rainymotion Sparse (RM-S), Rainymotion DenseRotation (RM-DR), Pysteps deterministic (PS-D), and probabilistic (PS-P) with 20 ensemble members. As benchmark, Eulerian Persistence (EP) and zero precipitation input (ZP) were used. For every 5-min step in the available nowcasts, a discharge forecast with a 12-hr forecast horizon was constructed. Simulations using the observed radar rainfall were used as reference. Rainfall and discharge forecast errors were found to increase with both increasing rainfall intensity and spatial variability. For the discharge forecasts, this relationship depends on the initial conditions, as the forecast error increases more quickly with rainfall intensity when the groundwater table is shallow. Overall, discharge forecasts using RM-DR, PS-D, and PS-P outperform the other methods. Threshold exceedance forecasts were assessed by using the maximum event discharge as threshold. Compared to benchmark ZP, an exceedance is, on average, forecast 223 (EP), 196 (RM-S), 213 (RM-DR), 119 (PS-D), and 143 min (PS-P) in advance. The EP results are counterbalanced by both a high false alarm ratio (FAR) and inconsistent forecasts. Contrarily, PS-D and PS-P produce lower FAR and inconsistency index values than all other methods. All methods advance short-term discharge forecasting compared to no rainfall forecasts at all, though all have shortcomings. As forecast rainfall volumes are a crucial factor in discharge forecasts, a future focus on improving this aspect in nowcasting is recommended., Water Resources

This report describes the investigation of care recommendations in the medical system across European countries to immigrants who attempted suicide. Data from seven European countries with 8865 local and 2921 immigrant person-cases were derived from the WHO/EURO Multicentre Study on Suicidal Behaviour and ensuing MONSUE (Monitoring Suicidal Behaviour in Europe) project. The relationship between immigrant status and type of aftercare recommended was analysed with binary logistic regression, adjusting for gender, age, method of attempt and the Centre collecting the data. Clear disparities were identified in the care recommendation practices toward immigrants, compared with hosts, over and above differing policies by the European Centres.

Objectives: To compare frequencies of suicide attempt repetition in immigrants and local European populations, and the timing of repetition in these groups. Method: Data from 7 European countries, comprising 10 574 local and 3032 immigrant subjects, were taken from the World Health Organization European Multicentre Study on Suicidal Behaviour and the ensuing Monitoring Suicidal Behaviour in Europe (commonly referred to as MONSUE) project. The relation between immigrant status and repetition of suicide attempt within 12-months following first registered attempt was analyzed with binary logistic regression, controlling for sex, age, and method of attempt. Timing of repetition was controlled for sex, age, and the recommended type of aftercare. Results: Lower odds of repeating a suicide attempt were found in Eastern European (OR 0.50; 95% CI 0.41 to 0.61, P < 0.001) and non-European immigrants (OR 0.68; 95% CI 0.51 to 0.90, P < 0.05), compared with the locals. Similar patterns were identified in the sex-specific analysis. Eastern European immigrants tended to repeat their attempt much later than locals (OR 0.58; 95% CI 0.35 to 0.93, P < 0.05). In general, 32% of all repetition occurred within 30 days. Repetition tended to decrease with age and was more likely in females using harder methods in their index attempt (OR 1.29; 95% CI 1.08 to 1.54, P < 0.01). Large variations in the general repetition frequency were identified between the collecting centres, thus influencing the results. Conclusions: The lower repetition frequencies in non-Western immigrants, compared with locals, in Europe stands in contrast to their markedly higher tendency to attempt suicide in general, possibly pointing to situational stress factors related to their suicidal crisis that are less persistent over time. Our findings also raise the possibility that suicide attempters and repeaters constitute only partially overlapping populations.

Background: This study aimed to document the outcome dimensions that physicians see as important in defining cure from depression. The study also aimed to analyse physicians' attitudes about depression and to find out whether they affect their prescribing practices and/or the outcome dimensions that they view as important in defining cure.Methods: A 51-item questionnaire based on six validated scales was used to rate the importance of several depression outcome dimensions. Physicians' attitudes about depression were also assessed using the Depression Attitude Scale. Overall, 369 Belgian physicians (264 general practitioners [GPs]; 105 psychiatrists) participated in the DEsCRIBE ™survey.Results: GPs and psychiatrists strongly agreed that functioning and depressive symptomatology were most important in defining cure; anxious and somatic symptomatology was least important. GPs and psychiatrists differed in their attitudes about depression (p < 0.001). Logistic regression revealed that the attitudes of GPs - but not psychiatrists - were significantly associated with their rates of antidepressant prescription (p < 0.001) and that certain attitudes predicted which outcome dimensions were seen as important in defining cure.Conclusions: Belgian GPs and psychiatrists strongly agreed on which criteria were important in defining cure from depression but differed in their attitudes about depression. The outcome dimensions that were considered important in defining cure were influenced by physicians' attitudes - this was more pronounced in GPs than in psychiatrists. © 2011 Demyttenaere et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Although the Suicide Intent Scale (SIS) is a widely used instrument in research on suicidal behavior, comparative research on the latent structure of the SIS has been neglected. To determine whether a general factor model of the SIS is supported, alternative factor models of the SIS were evaluated comparatively in 11 clinical samples. The SIS was applied as part of a structured clinical interview to patients after an episode of non-fatal suicidal behavior. The samples were drawn from 11 study centers within the frame of the WHO/EURO multicenter study on suicidal behavior. Three different two-factor and two three-factor models of the SIS were examined in each sample using principal component analysis with orthogonal Procrustes rotation. The factorial structure of the 'subjective part' of the SIS (items 9-14) was strongly supported, whereas an acceptable model fit for the 'objective part' was not found. Possible future revisions of 'objective' SIS items may be worth consideration. As a limitation, the results of the study might not generalize to other samples that use different definitions of non-fatal suicidal behavior.

Background. While recent studies have found problem-solving impairments in individuals who engage in deliberate self-harm (DSH), few studies have examined repeaters and non-repeaters separately. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether specific types of problem-solving are associated with repeated DSH. Method. As part of the WHO/EURO Multicentre Study on Suicidal Behaviour, 836 medically treated DSH patients (59% repeaters) from 12 European regions were interviewed using the European Parasuicide Study Interview Schedule (EPSIS II) approximately 1 year after their index episode. The Utrecht Coping List (UCL) assessed habitual responses to problems. Results. Factor analysis identified five dimensions - Active Handling, Passive-Avoidance, Problem Sharing, Palliative Reactions and Negative Expression. Passive-Avoidance - characterized by a pre-occupation with problems, feeling unable to do anything, worrying about the past and taking a gloomy view of the situation, a greater likelihood of giving in so as to avoid difficult situations, the tendency to resign oneself to the situation, and to try to avoid problems - was the problem-solving dimension most strongly associated with repetition, although this association was attenuated by self-esteem. Conclusions. The outcomes of the study indicate that treatments for DSH patients with repeated episodes should include problem-solving interventions. The observed passivity and avoidance of problems (coupled with low self-esteem) associated with repetition suggests that intensive therapeutic input and follow-up are required for those with repeated DSH. © 2005 Cambridge University Press.

Information obtained at interview from 1,646 parasuicide patients in 14 regions in 13 European countries participating in the WHO/EURO Multicentre Study on Suicidal Behaviour was used to study self-reported intentions involved in parasuicide. Comparisons were made across cultures, genders, and age groups. Although some statistically significant differences were found, the effect sizes were very small. The main finding from this study is thus that parasuicide patients in different countries tend to indicate that similar types of intentions are involved in their acts of parasuicide, and that the intentions do not vary greatly with gender or age. The hypothesis that rates of suicide and parasuicide vary between regions with the frequency with which suicidal intention is indicated by the patients was also tested, but was supported only for women and in relation to national suicide rates. The findings from this study are likely to be generalizable to other settings and have implications for clinical practice.