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Abstract Background The pandemic and its preventive measures disrupted daily routines and posed unforeseen obstacles for families. Users of public online forums chronicled these challenges by freely expressing their sentiments in unrestricted text-length formats. We explored a German COVID-19 forum to understand family perspectives and experiences of pandemic measures, particularly in terms of testing and vaccinating children. Our findings aim to inform future epidemic health policies. Methods We retrieved all 11,207 entries from a COVID-19 forum during its lifespan (June 2020 - December 2021), posted during the height of the pandemic. We classified the entries into topic clusters including general pandemic situation, testing, or vaccination using state-of-the-art text embeddings and clustering algorithms. The clusters were selected based on the research’s aims and analysed qualitatively using a health policy triangle framework. Results Users generally appreciated pandemic public health safety measures for everyone’s protection, yet voiced concerns about inconsistent policies and disproportional disadvantages for children compared to other societal groups, like the elderly. Non-compliers were overwhelmingly regarded with skepticism and critiqued. Users found COVID-19 (exit) strategies and information about the benefits of vaccination unclear. This created hurdles for parents and caregivers in navigating their children’s school and social life. Users endorsed vaccinating children mainly for “normalising” children’s lives rather than for their physical health benefits. Some users suggested prioritising teachers and early childhood educators on the vaccination eligibility list to speed up a return to “normality”. Conclusions During pandemics, governments should prioritize addressing the societal and mental health needs of children by implementing participatory and family-oriented public health measures for schools and kindergartens. Clear communication coupled with consistent design and implementation of safety measures and regulations, would be crucial for building trust in the general population and for ensuring compliance regarding testing and vaccination. Communicating the benefits and risks of vaccinating children is of paramount importance for informed decision-making among parents. In future epidemics, computer-aided analysis of large online qualitative data would offer valuable insights into public sentiments and concerns, enabling proactive and adaptive epidemic responses.

BackgroundStigma toward transgender children and adolescents negatively impacts their health and educational outcomes. Contact with members of stigmatized groups can dismantle stereotypes and reduce stigma by facilitating exposure to the unique cognitive and emotional perspectives of individuals within the group. Recent evidence suggests that video-based contact interventions can be as effective as face-to-face encounters, but challenges lie in protecting the identities of transgender youth, since many of them live in stealth. ObjectiveThis study aims to evaluate the impact of an animated online course, rooted in authentic, personal narratives, on course participants’ stigma toward transgender youth. MethodsThe online course was offered free of charge on Coursera and contained 19 teaching videos (3-7 minutes each), intermittent practice quizzes, and discussion prompts. Using real voice recordings of transgender children and their caregivers, the videos were designed to elicit empathy and transmit knowledge. All videos conveying the narratives of transgender youth were animated to protect their identities. A total of 447 course participants, distributed around the globe, completed pre- and postcourse surveys. While the course primarily targeted parents and caregivers of transgender youth, it was open to anyone with a Coursera account. The survey was based on the Transgender Attitudes and Beliefs Scale but modified to reflect the context of parents and caregivers. Using a 5-point Likert scale, it contained 5 questions that captured participants’ levels of transgender stigma. Results of the pre- and postcourse surveys were then compared. ResultsThe results were obtained in January 2023. Baseline levels of stigma were relatively low (18/25 across all questions, with 25 representing the lowest possible levels of stigma) and decreased further after completion of the course (to 19/25 across all questions, P

BackgroundInnovative mobile health (mHealth) interventions can improve maternal knowledge, thereby supporting national efforts to reduce preventable maternal and child mortality in South Africa. Studies have documented a potential role for mobile video content to support perinatal health messaging, enhance maternal satisfaction, and overcome literacy barriers. Short, animated storytelling (SAS) is an innovative, emerging approach to mHealth messaging. ObjectiveWe aimed to measure the effect of SAS videos on maternal knowledge and user satisfaction for mothers enrolled in antenatal care programs at 2 public health facilities in the Tshwane District of South Africa. MethodsWe used a randomized controlled trial with a nested evaluation of user satisfaction. Participants were randomized 1:1 into Standard-of-Care (SOC) Control, and SAS Intervention groups. The intervention videos were delivered through WhatsApp, and 1 month later, participants responded to telephone surveys assessing their knowledge. The intervention group then participated in a nested evaluation of user satisfaction. ResultsWe surveyed 204 participants. Of them, 49.5% (101/204) were aged between 25 and 34 years. Almost all participants self-identified as Black, with the majority (190/204, 93.2%) having completed secondary school. The mean overall knowledge score was 21.92/28. We observed a slight increase of 0.28 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] –0.58 to 1.16) in the overall knowledge score in the intervention arm. We found that those with secondary education or above scored higher than those with only primary education by 2.24 (95% UI 0.76-4.01). Participants aged 35 years or older also scored higher than the youngest age group (18-24 years) by 1.83 (95% CI 0.39-3.33). Finally, the nested user satisfaction evaluation revealed high maternal satisfaction (4.71/5) with the SAS video series. ConclusionsWhile the SAS videos resulted in high user satisfaction, measured knowledge gains were small within a participant population that was already receiving perinatal health messages through antenatal clinics. The higher knowledge scores observed in older participants with higher education levels suggest that boosting maternal knowledge in younger mothers with lower education levels should continue to be a public health priority in South Africa. Given the high maternal satisfaction among the SAS video-users in this study, policy makers should consider integrating similar approaches into existing, broad-reaching perinatal health programs, such as MomConnect, to boost satisfaction and potentially enhance maternal engagement. While previous studies have shown the promise of animated video health education, most of this research has been conducted in high-income countries. More research in underresourced settings is urgently needed, especially as access to mobile technology increases in the Global South. Future studies should explore the effect of SAS videos on maternal knowledge in hard-to-reach populations with limited access to antenatal care, although real-world logistical challenges persist when implementing studies in underresourced South African populations. Trial RegistrationPan African Clinical Trials Registry PACTR202203673222680; https://tinyurl.com/362cpuny

Abstract Background Debuting sexual intercourse marks exposure to pregnancy or fatherhood and sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including HIV. In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), sexual debut varies according to cultural, religious, and economic factors, and encouraging delay has been a longstanding component of behavioural HIV prevention strategies. Age at first sex (AFS) is routinely collected in national household surveys, but data are affected by reporting biases, limiting utility to monitor trends and guide sexual health interventions. Methods We collated individual-level data from nationally-representative household surveys to analyse timing and national trends in AFS in 42 SSA countries. We used a log-skew-logistic distribution to characterize the time to AFS in a Bayesian spatio-temporal model, providing estimates of the sexual debut rate by sex, age, time, and country. We statistically adjusted for reporting biases by comparing AFS reported by the same birth cohorts in multiple survey rounds, allowing different reporting biases by sex and country. Results Median AFS in 2015 ranged from 15.8 among Angolan women to 25.3 among men in Niger. AFS was younger for women than men in 37/40 countries. The gap was largest for Sahel region countries and minimal in southern African countries. The distribution of female AFS was asymmetric with half debuting sex in an age range of 3.9 years [IQR 3.4–5.0 across countries]. Median AFS increased slightly between 1985 and 2020, ranging 0.84 years [IQR 0.11–1.55] and 0.79 [IQR -0.23–1.98] for females and males, respectively. The gender gap changed little over time in most countries. Female teens often reported higher AFS compared to when asked in their late twenties while male teens reported lower AFS; both sexes recalled a higher AFS in older ages compared to their thirties. Conclusions AFS increased slightly in most SSA countries, but changes were modest relative to large and persistent variation between countries and sexes, indicating relatively entrenched socio-cultural practices around sexual debut. Sexual health, family planning, and HIV/STI prevention services should adapt to local practices rather than focusing interventions to change AFS. These estimates for rates of sexual debut provide data to guide programmatic prioritization and implementation of sexual health services.

The Global AIDS Strategy 2021-2026 identifies adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) as a priority population for HIV prevention, and recommends differentiating intervention portfolios geographically based on local HIV incidence and individual risk behaviours. We estimated prevalence of HIV risk behaviours and associated HIV incidence at health district level among AGYW living in 13 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. We analysed 46 geospatially-referenced national household surveys conducted between 1999-2018 across 13 high HIV burden countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Female survey respondents aged 15-29 years were classified into four risk groups (not sexually active, cohabiting, non-regular or multiple partner[s] and female sex workers [FSW]) based on reported sexual behaviour. We used a Bayesian spatio-temporal multinomial regression model to estimate the proportion of AGYW in each risk group stratified by district, year, and five-year age group. Using subnational estimates of HIV prevalence and incidence produced by countries with support from UNAIDS, we estimated new HIV infections in each risk group by district and age group. We then assessed the efficiency of prioritising interventions according to risk group. Data consisted of 274,970 female survey respondents aged 15-29. Among women aged 20-29, cohabiting (63.1%) was more common in eastern Africa than non-regular or multiple partner(s) (21.3%), while in southern countries non-regular or multiple partner(s) (58.9%) were more common than cohabiting (23.4%). Risk group proportions varied substantially across age groups (65.9% of total variation explained), countries (20.9%), and between districts within each country (11.3%), but changed little over time (0.9%). Prioritisation based on behavioural risk, in combination with location- and age-based prioritisation, reduced the proportion of population required to be reached in order to find half of all expected new infections from 19.4% to 10.6%. FSW were 1.3% of the population but 10.6% of all expected new infections. Our risk group estimates provide data for HIV programmes to set targets and implement differentiated prevention strategies outlined in the Global AIDS Strategy. Successfully implementing this approach would result in more efficiently reaching substantially more of those at risk for infections.

Abstract Objective To analyse data from 2016–17 from a hospital-based antimicrobial resistance surveillance with national coverage in a network of hospitals Viet Nam. Methods We analysed data from 13 hospitals, 3 less than the dataset from the 2012–13 period. Identification and antimicrobial susceptibility testing data from the clinical microbiology laboratories from samples sent in for routine diagnostics were used. Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute 2018 guidelines were used for antimicrobial susceptibility testing interpretation. WHONET was used for data entry, management and analysis. Results 42,553 deduplicated isolates were included in this analysis; including 30,222 (71%) Gram-negative and 12,331 (29%) Gram-positive bacteria. 8,793 (21%) were from ICUs and 7,439 (18%) isolates were from invasive infections. Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus were the most frequently detected species with 9,092 (21%) and 4,833 isolates (11%), respectively; followed by Klebsiella pneumoniae (3,858 isolates – 9.1%) and Acinetobacter baumannii (3,870 isolates – 9%). Bacteria were mainly isolated from sputum (8,798 isolates – 21%), blood (7,118 isolates – 17%) and urine (5,202 isolates – 12%). Among Gram-positives 3,302/4,515 isolates (73%) of S. aureus were MRSA; 99/290 (34%) of Enterococcus faecium were resistant to vancomycin; and 58% (663/1,136) of Streptococcus pneumoniae proportion were reduced susceptible to penicillin. Among Gram-negatives 59% (4,085/6,953) and 40% (1,186/2,958) of E. coli and K. pneumoniae produced ESBL and 29% (376/1,298) and 11% (961/8,830) were resistant to carbapenems, respectively. 79% (2855/3622) and 45% (1,514/3,376) of Acinetobacter spp. and Pseudomonas aeruginosa were carbapenem resistant, respectively. 88% (804/911) of Haemophilus influenzae were ampicillin resistant and 18/253 (7%) of Salmonella spp. and 7/46 (15%) of Shigella spp. were resistant to fluoroquinolones. The number of isolates from which data were submitted in the 2016–2017 period was twice as high as in 2012–2013. AMR proportions were higher in 2016–2017 for most pathogen-antimicrobial combinations of interest including imipenem-resistant A. baumannii, P. aeruginosa and Enterobacterales. Conclusions The data show alarmingly high and increasing resistant proportions among important organisms in Viet Nam. AMR proportions varied across hospital types and should be interpreted with caution because existing sampling bias and missing information on whether isolates were community or hospital acquired. Affordable and scalable ways to adopt a sample- or case-based approach across the network should be explored and clinical data should be integrated to help provide more accurate inferences of the surveillance data.

Age at first sex (AFS) is a key indicator for monitoring sexual behaviour risk for HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. Reporting of AFS data, however, suffers social-desirability and recall biases which obscure AFS trends and inferences from the data. We illustrated AFS reporting biases using data from nationally-representative Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 1992 and 2019 in Ethiopia, Guinea, Senegal, and Zambia. Based on this, we proposed a time-to-event, interval censored model for the distribution of AFS that uses overlapping reports by the same birth cohort in successive surveys to adjust for reporting biases. The three-parameter log-skew-logistic distribution described the asymmetric and nonmonotonic hazard exhibited by empirical AFS data. In cross-validation analysis, incorporating a term for reporting bias as a function of age at report improved model predictions for the trend in AFS over birth cohorts. In the four example applications, the quartiles of the AFS distribution were 16–23 years for Ethiopian and Senegalese women and 15–20 years for Guinean and Zambian men. Median AFS increased by around one to 1.5 years between the 1960 and 1989 birth cohorts for all four datasets. During adolescent and young adult ages, men tended to report an earlier AFS while women tended to report an older AFS than when asked in their late twenties. Above age 30, both male and female respondents tended to report older AFS compared to when surveyed in their late twenties. Simulations validated that the model recovered the trend in AFS in the presence of reporting biases. When there were biases, at least three surveys were needed to obtain reliable estimate for a 20-year trend. Mis-specified reference age at which AFS reporting is assumed unbiased did not affect the trend estimate but resulted in biased median AFS in the most recent birth cohorts.

Population sizes of adolescent (15- to 19-years) and young (20 to 24-years) key populations at risk for HIV transmission are essential for developing effective national HIV control strategies. We present new population size estimates of adolescent and young men who have sex with men and females who sell sex from 184 countries in nine UNICEF regions using UNAIDS published population size estimations submitted by national governments to derive 15-24-year-old population proportions based on the size of equivalent adult general populations. Imputed sizes based on regional estimates were used for countries or regions where adult proportion estimates were unavailable. Proportions were apportioned to adolescents and young adults based on age at sexual debut, by adjusting for the cumulative percentage of the sexually active population at each age for sex. Among roughly 69.5 million men who have sex with men, 12 million are under the age of 24 years, of whom 3 million are adolescents. There are an estimated 1.4 million adolescent and 3.7 million young females who sell sex. Roughly four and a half million adolescent men who have sex with men and females who sell sex would benefit from early HIV interventions. These population size estimates suggest there are roughly 17 million adolescent and young men who have sex with men and females who sell sex who need HIV prevention services and social support. These data provide evidence for national and international programs to determine how many adolescent and young key populations need essential health services and are living with HIV and other infections. Age disaggregated population sizes inform epidemic models, which increasingly use age-sex structures and are often used to obtain and allocate resources and human capacity and to plan critical prevention, treatment, and infection control programs.

The evolution of influenza viruses is fundamentally shaped by within-host processes. However, the within-host evolutionary dynamics of influenza viruses remain incompletely understood, in part because most studies have focused on infections in healthy adults based on single timepoint data. Here, we analyzed the within-host evolution of 82 longitudinally sampled individuals, mostly young children, infected with A/H1N1pdm09 or A/H3N2 viruses between 2007 and 2009. For A/H1N1pdm09 infections during the 2009 pandemic, nonsynonymous minority variants were more prevalent than synonymous ones. For A/H3N2 viruses in young children, early infection was dominated by purifying selection. As these infections progressed, nonsynonymous variants typically increased in frequency even when within-host virus titers decreased. Unlike the short-lived infections of adults where de novo within-host variants are rare, longer infections in young children allow for the maintenance of virus diversity via mutation-selection balance creating potentially important opportunities for within-host virus evolution.

COPD and asthma are two distinct but sometimes overlapping diseases exhibiting varying degrees and types of inflammation on different stages of the disease. Although several biomarkers are defined to estimate the inflammatory endotype and stages in these diseases, there is still a need for new markers and potential therapeutic targets. We investigated the levels of a phytohormone, abscisic acid (ABA) and its receptor, LANCL2, in COPD patients and asthmatics. In addition, PPAR-γ that is activated by ABA in a ligand-binding domain-independent manner was also included in the study. In this study, we correlated ABA with COPD-propagating factors to define the possible role of ABA, in terms of immune regulation, inflammation, and disease stages. We collected blood from 101 COPD patients, 52 asthmatics, and 57 controls. Bronchoscopy was performed on five COPD patients and 29 controls. We employed (i) liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry and HPLC to determine the ABA and indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase levels, respectively; (ii) real-time PCR to quantify the gene expression of LANCL2 and PPAR-γ; (iii) Flow cytometry to quantify adipocytokines; and (iv) immunoturbidimetry and ELISA to measure CRP and cytokines, respectively. Finally, a multinomial regression model was used to predict the probability of using ABA as a biomarker. Blood ABA levels were significantly reduced in COPD patients and asthmatics compared to age- and gender-matched normal controls. However, PPAR-γ was elevated in COPD patients. Intriguingly, ABA was positively correlated with immune-regulatory factors and was negatively correlated with inflammatory markers, in COPD. Of note, ABA was increased in advanced COPD stages. We thereby conclude that ABA might be involved in regulation of COPD pathogenesis and might be regarded as a potential biomarker for COPD stages.

From August to November 2017, Madagascar endured an outbreak of plague. A total of 2417 cases of plague were confirmed, causing a death toll of 209. Public health intervention efforts were introduced and successfully stopped the epidemic at the end of November. The plague, however, is endemic in the region and occurs annually, posing the risk of future outbreaks. To understand the plague transmission, we collected real-time data from official reports, described the outbreak's characteristics, and estimated transmission parameters using statistical and mathematical models. The pneumonic plague epidemic curve exhibited multiple peaks, coinciding with sporadic introductions of new bubonic cases. Optimal climate conditions for rat flea to flourish were observed during the epidemic. Estimate of the plague basic reproduction number during the large wave of the epidemic was high, ranging from 5 to 7 depending on model assumptions. The incubation and infection periods for bubonic and pneumonic plague were 4.3 and 3.4 days and 3.8 and 2.9 days, respectively. Parameter estimation suggested that even with a small fraction of the population exposed to infected rat fleas (1/10,000) and a small probability of transition from a bubonic case to a secondary pneumonic case (3%), the high human-to-human transmission rate can still generate a large outbreak. Controlling rodent and fleas can prevent new index cases, but managing human-to-human transmission is key to prevent large-scale outbreaks. Keywords: Plague, Outbreak, Modelling, Stochastic, Climate, Seasonal, Madagascar

Abstract Background Recent epidemics have entailed global discussions on revamping epidemic control and prevention approaches. A general consensus is that all sources of data should be embraced to improve epidemic preparedness. As a disease transmission is inherently governed by individual-level responses, pathogen dynamics within infected hosts posit high potentials to inform population-level phenomena. We propose a multiscale approach showing that individual dynamics were able to reproduce population-level observations. Methods Using experimental data, we formulated mathematical models of pathogen infection dynamics from which we simulated mechanistically its transmission parameters. The models were then embedded in our implementation of an age-specific contact network that allows to express individual differences relevant to the transmission processes. This approach is illustrated with an example of Ebola virus (EBOV). Results The results showed that a within-host infection model can reproduce EBOV’s transmission parameters obtained from population data. At the same time, population age-structure, contact distribution and patterns can be expressed using network generating algorithm. This framework opens a vast opportunity to investigate individual roles of factors involved in the epidemic processes. Estimating EBOV’s reproduction number revealed a heterogeneous pattern among age-groups, prompting cautions on estimates unadjusted for contact pattern. Assessments of mass vaccination strategies showed that vaccination conducted in a time window from five months before to one week after the start of an epidemic appeared to strongly reduce epidemic size. Noticeably, compared to a non-intervention scenario, a low critical vaccination coverage of 33% cannot ensure epidemic extinction but could reduce the number of cases by ten to hundred times as well as lessen the case-fatality rate. Conclusions Experimental data on the within-host infection have been able to capture upfront key transmission parameters of a pathogen; the applications of this approach will give us more time to prepare for potential epidemics. The population of interest in epidemic assessments could be modelled with an age-specific contact network without exhaustive amount of data. Further assessments and adaptations for different pathogens and scenarios to explore multilevel aspects in infectious diseases epidemics are underway.

Abstract Ebola virus (EBOV) infection causes a high death toll, killing a high proportion of EBOV-infected patients within 7 days. Comprehensive data on EBOV infection are fragmented, hampering efforts in developing therapeutics and vaccines against EBOV. Under this circumstance, mathematical models become valuable resources to explore potential controlling strategies. In this paper, we employed experimental data of EBOV-infected nonhuman primates (NHPs) to construct a mathematical framework for determining windows of opportunity for treatment and vaccination. Considering a prophylactic vaccine based on recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus expressing the EBOV glycoprotein (rVSV-EBOV), vaccination could be protective if a subject is vaccinated during a period from one week to four months before infection. For the case of a therapeutic vaccine based on monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), a single dose might resolve the invasive EBOV replication even if it was administrated as late as four days after infection. Our mathematical models can be used as building blocks for evaluating therapeutic and vaccine modalities as well as for evaluating public health intervention strategies in outbreaks. Future laboratory experiments will help to validate and refine the estimates of the windows of opportunity proposed here.

BACKGROUND:Leptospirosis is the most common zoonotic disease worldwide. The diagnostic performance of a serological test for human leptospirosis is mainly influenced by the antigen used in the test assay. An ideal serological test should cover all serovars of pathogenic leptospires with high sensitivity and specificity and use reagents that are relatively inexpensive to produce and can be used in tropical climates. Peptide-based tests fulfil at least the latter two requirements, and ORFeome phage display has been successfully used to identify immunogenic peptides from other pathogens. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:Two ORFeome phage display libraries of the entire Leptospira spp. genomes from five local strains isolated in Malaysia and seven WHO reference strains were constructed. Subsequently, 18 unique Leptospira peptides were identified in a screen using a pool of sera from patients with acute leptospirosis. Five of these were validated by titration ELISA using different pools of patient or control sera. The diagnostic performance of these five peptides was then assessed against 16 individual sera from patients with acute leptospirosis and 16 healthy donors and was compared to that of two recombinant reference proteins from L. interrogans. This analysis revealed two peptides (SIR16-D1 and SIR16-H1) from the local isolates with good accuracy for the detection of acute leptospirosis (area under the ROC curve: 0.86 and 0.78, respectively; sensitivity: 0.88 and 0.94; specificity: 0.81 and 0.69), which was close to that of the reference proteins LipL32 and Loa22 (area under the ROC curve: 0.91 and 0.80; sensitivity: 0.94 and 0.81; specificity: 0.75 and 0.75). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:This analysis lends further support for using ORFeome phage display to identify pathogen-associated immunogenic peptides, and it suggests that this technique holds promise for the development of peptide-based diagnostics for leptospirosis and, possibly, of vaccines against this pathogen.

Influenza A virus (IAV) infection represents a global threat causing seasonal outbreaks and pandemics. Additionally, secondary bacterial infections, caused mainly by Streptococcus pneumoniae, are one of the main complications and responsible for the enhanced morbidity and mortality associated with IAV infections. In spite of the significant advances in our knowledge of IAV infections, holistic comprehension of the interplay between IAV and the host immune response (IR) remains largely fragmented. During the last decade, mathematical modeling has been instrumental to explain and quantify IAV dynamics. In this paper, we review not only the state of the art of mathematical models of IAV infection but also the methodologies exploited for parameter estimation. We focus on the adaptive IR control of IAV infection and the possible mechanisms that could promote a secondary bacterial coinfection. To exemplify IAV dynamics and identifiability issues, a mathematical model to explain the interactions between adaptive IR and IAV infection is considered. Furthermore, in this paper we propose a roadmap for future influenza research. The development of a mathematical modeling framework with a secondary bacterial coinfection, immunosenescence, host genetic factors and responsiveness to vaccination will be pivotal to advance IAV infection understanding and treatment optimization.

Stockpiling neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) such as oseltamivir and zanamivir is part of a global effort to be prepared for an influenza pandemic. However, the contribution of NAIs for the treatment and prevention of influenza and its complications is largely debatable due to constraints in the ability to control for confounders and to explore unobserved areas of the drug effects. For this study, we used a mathematical model of influenza infection which allowed transparent analyses. The model recreated the oseltamivir effects and indicated that: (i) the efficacy was limited by design, (ii) a 99% efficacy could be achieved by using high drug doses (however, taking high doses of drug 48 h post-infection could only yield a maximum of 1.6-day reduction in the time to symptom alleviation), and (iii) contributions of oseltamivir to epidemic control could be high, but were observed only in fragile settings. In a typical influenza infection, NAIs’ efficacy is inherently not high, and even if their efficacy is improved, the effect can be negligible in practice.

Mathematical modelling approaches have granted a significant contribution to life sciences and beyond to understand experimental results. However, incomplete and inadequate assessments in parameter estimation practices hamper the parameter reliability, and consequently the insights that ultimately could arise from a mathematical model. To keep the diligent works in modelling biological systems from being mistrusted, potential sources of error must be acknowledged. Employing a popular mathematical model in viral infection research, existing means and practices in parameter estimation are exemplified. Numerical results show that poor experimental data is a main source that can lead to erroneous parameter estimates despite the use of innovative parameter estimation algorithms. Arbitrary choices of initial conditions as well as data asynchrony distort the parameter estimates but are often overlooked in modelling studies. This work stresses the existence of several sources of error buried in reports of modelling biological systems, voicing the need for assessing the sources of error, consolidating efforts in solving the immediate difficulties, and possibly reconsidering the use of mathematical modelling to quantify experimental data.

It is unclear why the severity of influenza varies in healthy adults or why the burden of severe influenza shifts to young adults when pandemic strains emerge. One possibility is that cross-protective T cell responses wane in this age group in the absence of recent infection. We therefore compared the acute cellular immune response in previously healthy adults with severe versus mild pandemic H1N1 infection.49 previously healthy adults admitted to the National Hospital of Tropical Diseases, Viet Nam with RT-PCR-confirmed 2009 H1N1 infection were prospectively enrolled. 39 recovered quickly whereas 10 developed severe symptoms requiring supplemental oxygen and prolonged hospitalization. Peripheral blood lymphocyte subset counts and activation (HLADR, CD38) and differentiation (CD27, CD28) marker expression were determined on days 0, 2, 5, 10, 14 and 28 by flow cytometry. NK, CD4 and CD8 lymphopenia developed in 100%, 90% and 60% of severe cases versus 13% (p

This study examined characteristics of HIV-infected patients in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database who were lost to follow-up (LTFU) from treatment and care. Time from last clinic visit to 31 March 2009 was analysed to determine the interval that best classified LTFU. Patients defined as LTFU were then categorised into permanently LTFU (never returned) and temporary LTFU (re-entered later), and these groups compared. A total of 3626 patients were included (71% male). No clinic visits for 180 days was the best-performing LTFU definition (sensitivity 90.6%, specificity 92.3%). During 7697 person-years of follow-up, 1648 episodes of LFTU were recorded (21.4 per 100-person-years). Patients LFTU were younger (P=0.002), had HIV viral load ≥500 copies/mL or missing (P=0.021), had shorter history of HIV infection (P=0.048), and received no, single- or double-antiretroviral therapy, or a triple-drug regimen containing a protease inhibitor (P

The relationships between the infecting dengue serotype, primary and secondary infection, viremia and dengue severity remain unclear. This cross-sectional study examined these interactions in adult patients hospitalized with dengue in Ha Noi.158 patients were enrolled between September 16 and November 11, 2008. Quantitative RT-PCR, serology and NS1 detection were used to confirm dengue infection, determine the serotype and plasma viral RNA concentration, and categorize infections as primary or secondary. 130 (82%) were laboratory confirmed. Serology was consistent with primary and secondary infection in 34% and 61%, respectively. The infecting serotype was DENV-1 in 42 (32%), DENV-2 in 39 (30%) and unknown in 49 (38%). Secondary infection was more common in DENV-2 infections (79%) compared to DENV-1 (36%, p

Abstract Background The role of adaptive immunity in severe influenza is poorly understood. The occurrence of influenza A/H5N1 in a patient with HIV provided a rare opportunity to investigate this. Case Presentation A 30-year-old male was admitted on day 4 of influenza-like-illness with tachycardia, tachypnea, hypoxemia and bilateral pulmonary infiltrates. Influenza A/H5N1 and HIV tests were positive and the patient was treated with Oseltamivir and broad-spectrum antibiotics. Initially his condition improved coinciding with virus clearance by day 6. He clinically deteriorated as of day 10 with fever recrudescence and increasing neutrophil counts and died on day 16. His admission CD4 count was 100/μl and decreased until virus was cleared. CD8 T cells shifted to a CD27+CD28- phenotype. Plasma chemokine and cytokine levels were similar to those found previously in fatal H5N1. Conclusions The course of H5N1 infection was not notably different from other cases. Virus was cleared despite profound CD4 T cell depletion and aberrant CD8 T cell activation but this may have increased susceptibility to a fatal secondary infection.

Abstract Background A novel variant of influenza A (H1N1) is causing a pandemic and, although the illness is usually mild, there are concerns that its virulence could change through reassortment with other influenza viruses. This is of greater concern in parts of Southeast Asia, where the population density is high, influenza is less seasonal, human-animal contact is common and avian influenza is still endemic. Methods We developed an age- and spatially-structured mathematical model in order to estimate the potential impact of pandemic H1N1 in Vietnam and the opportunities for reassortment with animal influenza viruses. The model tracks human infection among domestic animal owners and non-owners and also estimates the numbers of animals may be exposed to infected humans. Results In the absence of effective interventions, the model predicts that the introduction of pandemic H1N1 will result in an epidemic that spreads to half of Vietnam's provinces within 57 days (interquartile range (IQR): 45-86.5) and peaks 81 days after introduction (IQR: 62.5-121 days). For the current published range of the 2009 H1N1 influenza's basic reproductive number (1.2-3.1), we estimate a median of 410,000 cases among swine owners (IQR: 220,000-670,000) with 460,000 exposed swine (IQR: 260,000-740,000), 350,000 cases among chicken owners (IQR: 170,000-630,000) with 3.7 million exposed chickens (IQR: 1.9 M-6.4 M), and 51,000 cases among duck owners (IQR: 24,000 - 96,000), with 1.2 million exposed ducks (IQR: 0.6 M-2.1 M). The median number of overall human infections in Vietnam for this range of the basic reproductive number is 6.4 million (IQR: 4.4 M-8.0 M). Conclusion It is likely that, in the absence of effective interventions, the introduction of a novel H1N1 into a densely populated country such as Vietnam will result in a widespread epidemic. A large epidemic in a country with intense human-animal interaction and continued co-circulation of other seasonal and avian viruses would provide substantial opportunities for H1N1 to acquire new genes.

Background: Cryptococcal meningitis associated with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection causes more than 600,000 deaths each year worldwide. Treatment has changed little in 20 years, and there are no imminent new anticryptococcal agents. The use of adjuvant glucocorticoids reduces mortality among patients with other forms of meningitis in some populations, but their use is untested in patients with cryptococcal meningitis.Methods: In this double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial, we recruited adult patients with HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis in Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Laos, Uganda, and Malawi. All the patients received either dexamethasone or placebo for 6 weeks, along with combination antifungal therapy with amphotericin B and fluconazole.Results: The trial was stopped for safety reasons after the enrollment of 451 patients. Mortality was 47% in the dexamethasone group and 41% in the placebo group by 10 weeks (hazard ratio in the dexamethasone group, 1.11; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84 to 1.47; P=0.45) and 57% and 49%, respectively, by 6 months (hazard ratio, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.91 to 1.53; P=0.20). The percentage of patients with disability at 10 weeks was higher in the dexamethasone group than in the placebo group, with 13% versus 25% having a prespecified good outcome (odds ratio, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.25 to 0.69; P<0.001). Clinical adverse events were more common in the dexamethasone group than in the placebo group (667 vs. 494 events, P=0.01), with more patients in the dexamethasone group having grade 3 or 4 infection (48 vs. 25 patients, P=0.003), renal events (22 vs. 7, P=0.004), and cardiac events (8 vs. 0, P=0.004). Fungal clearance in cerebrospinal fluid was slower in the dexamethasone group. Results were consistent across Asian and African sites.Conclusions: Dexamethasone did not reduce mortality among patients with HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis and was associated with more adverse events and disability than was placebo. (Funded by the United Kingdom Department for International Development and others through the Joint Global Health Trials program; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN59144167.). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Patients with prolonged hospitalisation have a significant risk of carriage of and subsequent infection with extended spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-producing and carbapenemase-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae. However, the distinctive roles of the community and hospital environments in the transmission of ESBL-producing or carbapenemase-producing K pneumoniae remain elusive. We aimed to investigate the prevalence and transmission of K pneumoniae within and between the two tertiary hospitals in Hanoi, Viet Nam, using whole-genome sequencing., Methods: We did a prospective cohort study of 69 patients in intensive care units (ICUs) from two hospitals in Hanoi, Viet Nam. Patients were included if they were aged 18 years or older, admitted for longer than the mean length of stay in their ICU, and cultured K pneumoniae from their clinical samples. Longitudinally collected samples from patients (collected weekly) and the ICU environment (collected monthly) were cultured on selective media, and whole-genome sequences from K pneumoniae colonies analysed. We did phylogenetic analyses and correlated phenotypic antimicrobial susceptibility testing with genotypic features of K pneumoniae isolates. We constructed transmission networks of patient samples, relating ICU admission times and locations with genetic similarity of infecting K pneumoniae., Findings: Between June 1, 2017, and Jan 31, 2018, 69 patients were in the ICUs and eligible for inclusion, and a total of 357 K pneumoniae isolates were cultured and successfully sequenced. 228 (64%) of K pneumoniae isolates carried between two and four different ESBL-encoding and carbapenemase-encoding genes, with 164 (46%) isolates carrying genes encoding both, with high minimum inhibitory concentrations. We found a novel co-occurrence of bla KPC-2 and bla NDM-1 in 46·6% of samples from the globally successful ST15 lineage. Despite being physically and clinically separated, the two hospitals shared closely related strains carrying the same array of antimicrobial resistance genes., Interpretation: These results highlight the high prevalence of ESBL-positive carbapenem-resistant K pneumoniae in ICUs in Viet Nam. Through studying K pneumoniae ST15 in detail, we showed how important resistance genes are contained within these strains that are carried broadly by patients entering the two hospitals directly or through referral., Funding: Medical Research Council Newton Fund, Ministry of Science and Technology, Wellcome Trust, Academy of Medical Sciences, Health Foundation, and National Institute for Health and Care Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests JP is a paid consultant for Next Gen Diagnostics. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: An endotracheal tube cuff pressure between 20 and 30 cmH2O is recommended to prevent ventilator-associated respiratory infection (VARI). We aimed to evaluate whether continuous cuff pressure control (CPC) was associated with reduced VARI incidence compared with intermittent CPC., Methods: We conducted a multicenter open-label randomized controlled trial in intensive care unit (ICU) patients within 24 hours of intubation in Vietnam. Patients were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive either continuous CPC using an automated electronic device or intermittent CPC using a manually hand-held manometer. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of VARI, evaluated by an independent reviewer blinded to the CPC allocation., Results: We randomized 600 patients; 597 received the intervention or control and were included in the intention to treat analysis. Compared with intermittent CPC, continuous CPC did not reduce the proportion of patients with at least one episode of VARI (74/296 [25%] vs 69/301 [23%]; odds ratio [OR] 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI] .77-1.67]. There were no significant differences between continuous and intermittent CPC concerning the proportion of microbiologically confirmed VARI (OR 1.40; 95% CI .94-2.10), the proportion of intubated days without antimicrobials (relative proportion [RP] 0.99; 95% CI .87-1.12), rate of ICU discharge (cause-specific hazard ratio [HR] 0.95; 95% CI .78-1.16), cost of ICU stay (difference in transformed mean [DTM] 0.02; 95% CI -.05 to .08], cost of ICU antimicrobials (DTM 0.02; 95% CI -.25 to .28), cost of hospital stay (DTM 0.02; 95% CI -.04 to .08), and ICU mortality risk (OR 0.96; 95% CI .67-1.38)., Conclusions: Maintaining CPC through an automated electronic device did not reduce VARI incidence., Clinical Trial Registration: NCT02966392., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Introduction: C-reactive protein (CRP), a biomarker of infection, has been used widely in high-income settings to guide antibiotic treatment in patients presenting with respiratory illnesses in primary care. Recent trials in low- and middle-income countries showed that CRP testing could safely reduce antibiotic use in patients with non-severe acute respiratory infections (ARIs) and fever in primary care. The studies, however, were conducted in a research-oriented context, with research staff closely monitoring healthcare behaviour thus potentially influencing healthcare workers' prescribing practices. For policy-makers to consider wide-scale roll-out, a pragmatic implementation study of the impact of CRP point of care (POC) testing in routine care is needed., Methods and Analysis: A pragmatic, cluster-randomised controlled trial, with two study arms, consisting of 24 commune health centres (CHC) in the intervention arm (provision of CRP tests with additional healthcare worker guidance) and 24 facilities acting as controls (routine care). Comparison between the treatment arms will be through logistic regression, with the treatment assignment as a fixed effect, and the CHC as a random effect. With 48 clusters, an average of 10 consultations per facility per week will result in approximately 520 over 1 year, and 24 960 in total (12 480 per arm). We will be able to detect a reduction of 12% to 23% or more in immediate antibiotic prescription as a result of the CRP POC intervention. The primary endpoint is the proportion of patient consultations for ARI resulting in immediate antibiotic prescription. Secondary endpoints include the proportion of all patients receiving an antibiotic prescription regardless of ARI diagnosis, frequency of re-consultation, subsequent antibiotic use when antibiotics are not prescribed, referral and hospitalisation., Ethics and Dissemination: The study protocol was approved by the Oxford University Tropical Research Ethics Committee (OxTREC, Reference: 53-18), and the ethical committee of the National Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Vietnam (Reference:07/HDDD-NDTW/2019). Results from this study will be disseminated via meetings with stakeholders, conferences and publications in peer-reviewed journals. Authorship and reporting of this work will follow international guidelines., Trial Registration Details: NCT03855215; Pre-results., Competing Interests: Competing interests: We declare no competing interests. Neither Medix Biochemica nor any of its distributors, have had involvement with the funding or design of this study. The investigators have no financial connection to this or any other CRP test manufacturer or distributor., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Dengue infection can cause a wide spectrum of clinical outcomes. The severe clinical manifestations occur sufficiently late in the disease course, during day 4-6 of illness, to allow a window of opportunity for risk stratification. Markers of inflammation may be useful biomarkers. We investigated the value of C-reactive protein (CRP) measured early on illness days 1-3 to predict dengue disease outcome and the difference in CRP levels between dengue and other febrile illnesses (OFI)., Method: We performed a nested case-control study using the clinical data and samples collected from the IDAMS-consortium multi-country study. This was a prospective multi-center observational study that enrolled almost 8000 participants presenting with a dengue-like illness to outpatient facilities in 8 countries across Asia and Latin America. Predefined severity definitions of severe and intermediate dengue were used as the primary outcomes. A total of 281 cases with severe/intermediate dengue were compared to 836 uncomplicated dengue patients as controls (ratio 1:3), and also 394 patients with OFI., Results: In patients with confirmed dengue, median (interquartile range) of CRP level within the first 3 days was 30.2 mg/L (12.4-61.2 mg/L) (uncomplicated dengue, 28.6 (10.5-58.9); severe or intermediate dengue, 34.0 (17.4-71.8)). Higher CRP levels in the first 3 days of illness were associated with a higher risk of severe or intermediate outcome (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.07-1.29), especially in children. Higher CRP levels, exceeding 30 mg/L, also associated with hospitalization (OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.14-1.64) and longer fever clearance time (HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.76-0.93), especially in adults. CRP levels in patients with dengue were higher than patients with potential viral infection but lower than patients with potential bacterial infection, resulting in a quadratic association between dengue diagnosis and CRP, with levels of approximately 30 mg/L associated with the highest risk of having dengue. CRP had a positive correlation with total white cell count and neutrophils and negative correlation with lymphocytes, but did not correlate with liver transaminases, albumin, or platelet nadir., Conclusions: In summary, CRP measured in the first 3 days of illness could be a useful biomarker for early dengue risk prediction and may assist differentiating dengue from other febrile illnesses.

Purpose: The clinical features and laboratory results of dengue-infected adult patients admitted to the hospital during the 2017 outbreak were analyzed in this study., Method: This is a cross-sectional study. 2922 patients aged 18 years or more with dengue fever in National Hospital for Tropical Diseases (NHTD) in the North and Hospital for Tropical Disease (HTD) in the South of Vietnam were recruited in this study., Result: Patients were admitted in the hospital around the year and concentrated from August to December, in 53/63 (84.0%) provinces in Vietnam, and patients in all ages were affected. The number of patients with dengue fever was 1675 (57.3%), dengue with warning signs 914 (31.3%), and severe dengue 333 (11.4%), respectively. Among patients with severe dengue, severe plasma leakage and dengue shock account for 238 (8.1%), severe organ impairment 73 (2.5%), and severe bleeding 22 (0.75%). The rate of mortality was 0.8%, and the outcome of dengue patients is worse in the elderly and people with underlying diseases., Conclusion: The 2017 dengue outbreak occurred in a larger scale than in the previous years in terms of time, location, and number of patients. More elderly patients were infected by dengue in this outbreak, and this may contribute to the mortality rate. Clinical manifestations of dengue patients in Southern Vietnam are more typical than the northern, but the rate of severe dengue is not different. The mortality risk and underlying conditions associated with dengue-infected elderly patients are worthy of further investigations in the future., Competing Interests: The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest regarding the publication of this paper., (Copyright © 2019 Bui Vu Huy et al.)

Background: Mycobacterium avium complex prophylaxis is recommended for patients with advanced HIV infection. With the decrease in incidence of disseminated Mycobacterium avium complex infection and the availability of antiretroviral therapy (ART), the benefits of macrolide prophylaxis were investigated. This study examined the impact of macrolide prophylaxis on AIDS-defining conditions and HIV-associated mortality in a cohort of HIV-infected patients on ART., Methods: Patients from TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (September 2015 data transfer) aged 18 years and older with a CD4 count <50 cells/mm at ART initiation were included. The effect of macrolide prophylaxis on HIV-associated mortality or AIDS-defining conditions (as a combined outcome) and HIV-associated mortality alone were evaluated using competing risk regression. Sensitivity analysis was conducted in patients with a CD4 <100 cells/mm at ART initiation., Results: Of 1345 eligible patients, 10.6% received macrolide prophylaxis. The rate of the combined outcome was 7.35 [95% confidence interval (CI): 6.04 to 8.95] per 100 patient-years, whereas the rate of HIV-associated mortality was 3.14 (95% CI: 2.35 to 4.19) per 100 patient-years. Macrolide use was associated with a significantly decreased risk of HIV-associated mortality (hazard ratio 0.10, 95% CI: 0.01 to 0.80, P = 0.031) but not with the combined outcome (hazard ratio 0.86, 95% CI: 0.32 to 2.229, P = 0.764). Sensitivity analyses showed consistent results among patients with a CD4 <100 cells/mm at ART initiation., Conclusions: Macrolide prophylaxis is associated with improved survival among Asian HIV-infected patients with low CD4 cell counts and on ART. This study suggests the increased usage and coverage of macrolide prophylaxis among people living with HIV in Asia.

Rickettsioses are endemic to Vietnam; however, only a limited number of clinical studies have been performed on these vectorborne bacteria. We conducted a prospective hospital-based study at 2 national referral hospitals in Hanoi to describe the clinical characteristics of scrub typhus and murine typhus in northern Vietnam and to assess the diagnostic applicability of quantitative real-time PCR assays to diagnose rickettsial diseases. We enrolled 302 patients with acute undifferentiated fever and clinically suspected rickettsiosis during March 2015-March 2017. We used a standardized case report form to collect clinical information and laboratory results at the time of admission and during treatment. We confirmed scrub typhus in 103 (34.1%) patients and murine typhus in 12 (3.3%) patients. These results highlight the need for increased emphasis on training for healthcare providers for earlier recognition, prevention, and treatment of rickettsial diseases in Vietnam.

Backgroud: With expanding antiretroviral therapy (ART) in a resource-limited setting, the use of second line ART with ritonavir boosted lopinavir (LPV/r) is increasing. However, little is known regarding the renal safety of tenofovir (TDF) co-administered with LPV/r., Methods: In total 1382 HIV-infected patients were enrolled and data were recorded twice (October 2014 and 2015) in Vietnam. Tubular dysfunction (TD) was defined as urinary beta 2 microglobulin (β2MG) > 1000 μg/L at both timepoints or increase in β2MG by > 2000 μg/L. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) was defined as creatinine clearance ≤60 ml/min or urinary protein/creatinine ratio ≥ 0.15 g/gCre at both timepoints., Results: The patients'mean weight and age were 55.9 kg and 38.4 years, respectively, and 41.5% were female. Additionally, 98.2% were on ART, 76.3% were on TDF (mean exposure duration was 35.4 months), and 22.4% had never TDF exposure. TD and CKD were diagnosed in 13% and 8.3% of all patients, respectively. In multivariate analyses, age (OR = 1.057; 95%CI, 1.034-1.081), being female (OR = 0.377; 95%CI, 0.221-0.645), HBsAg positive (OR = 1.812; 95%CI, 1.134-2.894), HCVAb positive (OR = 1.703; 95%CI, 1.100-2.635), TDF exposure (OR = 9.226; 95%CI, 2.847-29.901) and LPV/r exposure (OR = 5.548; 95%CI, 3.313-9.293) were significantly associated with TD. Moreover, age (OR = 1.093; 95%CI, 1.068-1.119), being female (OR = 0.510; 95%CI, 0.295-0.880), weight (OR = 0.909; 95%CI, 0.879-0.939), hypertension (OR = 3.027; 95%CI, 1.714-5.347), TDF exposure (OR = 1.963; 95%CI, 1.027-3.7 53) and LPV/r exposure (OR = 3.122; 95%CI, 1.710-5.699) were significantly associated with CKD., Conclusions: TDF and LPV/r exposure were strongly associated with TD and CKD, in addition to their known risks. Therefore, attention to renal safety for patients on second line ART is necessary., (Copyright © 2018 Japanese Society of Chemotherapy and The Japanese Association for Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Ventilator-associated respiratory infection (VARI) is a significant problem in resource-restricted intensive care units (ICUs), but differences in casemix and etiology means VARI in resource-restricted ICUs may be different from that found in resource-rich units. Data from these settings are vital to plan preventative interventions and assess their cost-effectiveness, but few are available., Methods: We conducted a prospective observational study in four Vietnamese ICUs to assess the incidence and impact of VARI. Patients ≥ 16 years old and expected to be mechanically ventilated > 48 h were enrolled in the study and followed daily for 28 days following ICU admission., Results: Four hundred fifty eligible patients were enrolled over 24 months, and after exclusions, 374 patients' data were analyzed. A total of 92/374 cases of VARI (21.7/1000 ventilator days) were diagnosed; 37 (9.9%) of these met ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) criteria (8.7/1000 ventilator days). Patients with any VARI, VAP, or VARI without VAP experienced increased hospital and ICU stay, ICU cost, and antibiotic use ( p  < 0.01 for all). This was also true for all VARI ( p  < 0.01 for all) with/without tetanus. There was no increased risk of in-hospital death in patients with VARI compared to those without (VAP HR 1.58, 95% CI 0.75-3.33, p  = 0.23; VARI without VAP HR 0.40, 95% CI 0.14-1.17, p  = 0.09). In patients with positive endotracheal aspirate cultures, most VARI was caused by Gram-negative organisms; the most frequent were Acinetobacter baumannii (32/73, 43.8%) Klebsiella pneumoniae (26/73, 35.6%), and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (24/73, 32.9%). 40/68 (58.8%) patients with positive cultures for these had carbapenem-resistant isolates. Patients with carbapenem-resistant VARI had significantly greater ICU costs than patients with carbapenem-susceptible isolates (6053 USD (IQR 3806-7824) vs 3131 USD (IQR 2108-7551), p  = 0.04) and after correction for adequacy of initial antibiotics and APACHE II score, showed a trend towards increased risk of in-hospital death (HR 2.82, 95% CI 0.75-6.75, p  = 0.15)., Conclusions: VARI in a resource-restricted setting has limited impact on mortality, but shows significant association with increased patient costs, length of stay, and antibiotic use, particularly when caused by carbapenem-resistant bacteria. Evidence-based interventions to reduce VARI in these settings are urgently needed., Competing Interests: The study was approved by the Oxford Tropical Research Ethics Committee and local Ethics Committees of participating hospitals (Scientific and Ethics Committees of Bach Mai Hospital Hanoi, National Hospital for Tropical Diseases Hanoi, and Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City). The study was carried out according to the principals of the Declaration of Helsinki and all participants gave written informed consent to take part in the study.The authors declare that they have no competing interests.Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Background: Abacavir and rilpivirine are alternative antiretroviral drugs for treatment-naïve HIV-infected patients. However, both drugs are only recommended for the patients who have pre-treatment HIV RNA <100,000 copies/mL. In resource-limited settings, pre-treatment HIV RNA is not routinely performed and not widely available. The aims of this study are to determine factors associated with pre-treatment HIV RNA <100,000 copies/mL and to construct a model to predict this outcome., Methods: HIV-infected adults enrolled in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database were eligible if they had an HIV RNA measurement documented at the time of ART initiation. The dataset was randomly split into a derivation data set (75% of patients) and a validation data set (25%). Factors associated with pre-treatment HIV RNA <100,000 copies/mL were evaluated by logistic regression adjusted for study site. A prediction model and prediction scores were created., Results: A total of 2592 patients were enrolled for the analysis. Median [interquartile range (IQR)] age was 35.8 (29.9-42.5) years; CD4 count was 147 (50-248) cells/mm 3 ; and pre-treatment HIV RNA was 100,000 (34,045-301,075) copies/mL. Factors associated with pre-treatment HIV RNA <100,000 copies/mL were age <30 years [OR 1.40 vs. 41-50 years; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10-1.80, p = 0.01], body mass index >30 kg/m 2 (OR 2.4 vs. <18.5 kg/m 2 ; 95% CI 1.1-5.1, p = 0.02), anemia (OR 1.70; 95% CI 1.40-2.10, p < 0.01), CD4 count >350 cells/mm 3 (OR 3.9 vs. <100 cells/mm 3 ; 95% CI 2.0-4.1, p < 0.01), total lymphocyte count >2000 cells/mm 3 (OR 1.7 vs. <1000 cells/mm 3 ; 95% CI 1.3-2.3, p < 0.01), and no prior AIDS-defining illness (OR 1.8; 95% CI 1.5-2.3, p < 0.01). Receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) analysis yielded area under the curve of 0.70 (95% CI 0.67-0.72) among derivation patients and 0.69 (95% CI 0.65-0.74) among validation patients. A cut off score >25 yielded the sensitivity of 46.7%, specificity of 79.1%, positive predictive value of 67.7%, and negative predictive value of 61.2% for prediction of pre-treatment HIV RNA <100,000 copies/mL among derivation patients., Conclusion: A model prediction for pre-treatment HIV RNA <100,000 copies/mL produced an area under the ROC curve of 0.70. A larger sample size for prediction model development as well as for model validation is warranted.

Background: The hallmark of severe dengue is increased microvascular permeability, but alterations in the microcirculation and their evolution over the course of dengue are unknown., Methods: We conducted a prospective observational study to evaluate the sublingual microcirculation using side-stream dark-field imaging in patients presenting early (<72 hours after fever onset) and patients hospitalized with warning signs or severe dengue in Vietnam. Clinical findings, microvascular function, global hemodynamics assessed with echocardiography, and serological markers of endothelial activation were determined at 4 time points., Results: A total of 165 patients were enrolled. No difference was found between the microcirculatory parameters comparing dengue with other febrile illnesses. The proportion of perfused vessels (PPV) and the mean flow index (MFI) were lower in patients with dengue with plasma than those without leakage (PPV, 88.1% vs 90.6% [P = .01]; MFI, 2.1 vs 2.4 [P = .007]), most markedly during the critical phase. PPV and MFI were correlated with the endothelial activation markers vascular cell adhesion molecule 1 (P < .001 for both) and angiopoietin 2 (P < .001 for both), negatively correlated., Conclusions: Modest microcirculatory alterations occur in dengue, are associated with plasma leakage, and are correlate with molecules of endothelial activation, angiopoietin 2 and vascular cell adhesion molecule 1., (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Background: Enterovirus 71 subgenogroup C4 caused the largest outbreak of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in Vietnam during 2011-2012, resulting in over 200,000 hospitalisations and 207 fatalities., Methods: A total of 1917 samples with adequate volume for RT-PCR analysis were collected from patients hospitalised with HFMD throughout Vietnam and 637 were positive for EV71. VP1 gene (n=87) and complete genome (n=9) sequencing was performed. Maximum-likelihood phylogenetic analysis was performed to characterise the B5, C4 and C5 strains detected., Results: Sequence analyses revealed that the dominant subgenogroup associated with the 2012 outbreak was C4, with B5 and C5 strains representing a small proportion of these cases., Conclusions: Numerous countries in the region including Malaysia, Taiwan and China have a large influence on strain diversity in Vietnam and understanding the transmission of EV71 throughout Southeast Asia is vital to inform preventative public health measures and vaccine development efforts., (Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: The burden of dengue continues to increase globally, with an estimated 100 million clinically apparent infections occurring each year. Although most dengue infections are asymptomatic, patients can present with a wide spectrum of clinical symptoms ranging from mild febrile illness through to severe manifestations of bleeding, organ impairment, and hypovolaemic shock due to a systemic vascular leak syndrome. Clinical diagnosis of dengue and identification of which patients are likely to develop severe disease remain challenging. This study aims to improve diagnosis and clinical management through approaches designed a) to differentiate between dengue and other common febrile illness within 72 h of fever onset, and b) among patients with dengue to identify markers that are predictive of the likelihood of evolving to a more severe disease course., Method/design: This is a prospective multi-centre observational study aiming to enrol 7-8000 participants aged ≥ 5 years presenting with a febrile illness consistent with dengue to outpatient health facilities in 8 countries across Asia and Latin America. Patients presenting within 72 h of fever onset who do not exhibit signs of severe disease are eligible for the study. A broad range of clinical and laboratory parameters are assessed daily for up to 6 days during the acute illness, and also at a follow up visit 1 week later., Discussion: Data from this large cohort of patients, enrolled early with undifferentiated fever, will be used to develop a practical diagnostic algorithm and a robust clinical case definition for dengue. Additionally, among patients with confirmed dengue we aim to identify simple clinical and laboratory parameters associated with progression to a more severe disease course. We will also investigate early virological and serological correlates of severe disease, and examine genetic associations in this large heterogeneous cohort. In addition the results will be used to assess the new World Health Organization classification scheme for dengue in practice, and to update the guidelines for "Integrated Management of Childhood Illness" used in dengue-endemic countries., Trial Registration: NCT01550016. Registration Date: March 7, 2012.

Background: The World Health Organization recommends HBV-HIV-coinfected individuals start antiretroviral therapy containing tenofovir. Here we describe first-line tenofovir use and treatment outcomes in coinfected patients in Asia., Methods: HBV surface antigen positive patients enrolled in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database who started first-line antiretroviral therapy were included. Logistic regression adjusted for period of treatment initiation was used to determine factors associated with tenofovir use. Generalized estimating equations were used to evaluate factors associated with alanine transaminase levels and CD4(+) T-cell count on treatment., Results: There were 548 eligible patients, of whom 149 (27.2%) started tenofovir. Patients treated in high/high-middle income countries (odds ratio 4.4 versus low/low-middle, 95% CI 2.6, 7.4; P<0.001) and those with elevated baseline alanine transaminase (odds ratio 4.2 versus normal, 95% CI 2.4, 7.2; P<0.001) were more likely to receive tenofovir. Hepatitis C antibody positive patients (odds ratio 0.4 versus negative, 95% CI 0.2, 0.8; P=0.008) were less likely. In those starting antiretroviral therapy with elevated alanine transaminase, mean reduction after tenofovir initiation was 11.2 IU/l (95% CI 0.9, 21.6; P=0.034) lower compared with those using a non-tenofovir-based regimen although this did not significantly increase the chance of alanine transaminase normalization. Tenofovir use was not associated with a superior CD4(+) T-cell response., Conclusions: HBV-HIV-coinfected patients in Asia are most likely to receive tenofovir if they are treated in a high/high-middle income country, have elevated alanine transaminase levels and are hepatitis C antibody negative. Compared to other antiretroviral therapies, tenofovir-based regimens more effectively reduce liver inflammation in HBV-HIV-coinfection but do not result in superior CD4(+) T-cell recovery.

Klebsiella pneumoniae clonal group (CG) 258, comprising sequence types (STs) 258, 11, and closely related variants, is associated with dissemination of the K. pneumoniae carbapenemase (KPC). Hospital outbreaks of KPC CG258 infections have been observed globally and are very difficult to treat. As a consequence, there is renewed interest in alternative infection control measures such as vaccines and phage or depolymerase treatments targeting the K. pneumoniae polysaccharide capsule. To date, 78 immunologically distinct capsule variants have been described in K. pneumoniae. Previous investigations of ST258 and a small number of closely related strains suggested that capsular variation was limited within this clone; only two distinct ST258 capsule polysaccharide synthesis (cps) loci have been identified, both acquired through large-scale recombination events (>50 kb). In contrast to previous studies, we report a comparative genomic analysis of the broader K. pneumoniae CG258 (n = 39). We identified 11 different cps loci within CG258, indicating that capsular switching is actually common within the complex. We observed several insertion sequences (IS) within the cps loci, and show further intraclone diversification of two cps loci through IS activity. Our data also indicate that several large-scale recombination events have shaped the genomes of CG258, and that definition of the complex should be broadened to include ST395 (also reported to harbor KPC). As only the second report of extensive intraclonal cps variation among Gram-negative bacterial species, our findings alter our understanding of the evolution of these organisms and have key implications for the design of control measures targeting K. pneumoniae capsules., (© The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.)

Rhodococcus equi infection is increasing in regions with high HIV prevalence worldwide. The microbiological features and clinical mimicry of tuberculosis infection pose diagnostic challenges in high-tuberculosis-incidence settings. We present two HIV-associated cases of R. equi infection from Vietnam and discuss the unique diagnostic challenges in such settings., (Copyright © 2015, Le et al.)