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In this study, we aimed to assess the capacity of a physics-based earthquake simulator to improve our understanding of the seismogenic process. In this respect, we applied a previously tested earthquake simulator to two well-known and completely different seismogenic fault systems, namely the Italian Apennines and the Nankai subduction in Japan, for which long historical records of strong earthquakes are available. They are characterized by different fault mechanisms, fault sizes, and slip rates. Because of the difference in slip rates, the time scale of the seismicity patterns is different for the two systems (several hundreds of years for the Apennines and a few tens of years for the Nankai Fault). The results of simulations that produced synthetic catalogues of 100,000 years show these significant long-term seismicity patterns characterizing the seismic cycles for both seismogenic areas as follows: The average stress and the occurrence rate of earthquakes increase in the long term as the next major earthquake approaches; while the average stress increases uniformly, the occurrence rate stops increasing well in advance of the mainshocks; the b-value exhibits a long-term increase before major earthquakes and a fast decrease shortly before the mainshocks. Even if no specific statistical tool was applied for the quantification of the similarities between the seismicity patterns of the two seismic areas, such similarities are clearly justified by the large number of seismic cycles included in the 100,000-year synthetic catalogues. The paper includes a discussion on the capability of the simulation algorithm to reliably represent the real long-term seismogenic process. This question is difficult to answer because the available historical observations are of too short a duration to provide significant statistical results. In spite of the limitations characterizing the use of earthquake simulators for time-dependent earthquake hazard assessment, and the lack of convincing mechanistic explanations of the specific seismic patterns reproduced by our simulator algorithm, our results encourage further investigations into the application of simulators for the development of seismogenic models, including short-term features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Italian historical earthquake record is among the richest worldwide; as such it allows the development of advanced techniques for retrieving quantitative information by calibration with recent earthquakes. Building on a pilot elaboration of northern Italy earthquakes, we developed a procedure for determining the focal depth of all Italian earthquakes from intensity data alone. In a second step the procedure calculates their magnitude, taking into account the inferred depth. Focal depth exhibits a substantial variability countrywide, but so far received little attention: pre-instrumental earthquakes were routinely "flattened" at upper crustal level (~10 km), on the grounds that the calculation of focal depth is heavily dependent on the largely unknown local propagation properties. We gathered a learning set of 42 earthquakes documented by reliable instrumental data and by numerous intensity observations. Rather unexpectedly we observe (1) that within 50 km from the epicenter the ground motion attenuation rate is primarily controlled by focal depth and largely independent of magnitude; (2) that within this distance the fluctuations of crustal attenuation properties are negligible countrywide; and (3) that knowing both the depth and the expected epicentral intensity makes it possible to estimate a reliable magnitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The application of a physics-based earthquake simulation algorithm to the Central Apennines, where the 2016-2017 seismic sequence occurred, allowed the compilation of a synthetic seismic catalogue lasting 100 kyr, and containing more than 500 000 M ≤ 4.0 events, without limitations in terms of completeness, homogeneity and time duration. This simulator is based on an algorithm constrained by several faulting and source parameters. The seismogenicmodel upon which we applied the simulator code, was derived from the Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources including all the fault systems that are recognized in the Central Apennines. The application of our simulation algorithm provides typical features in time, space and magnitude behaviour of the seismicity, which are comparable with the observations. These features include long-term periodicity and a realistic earthquake magnitude distribution. The statistical distribution of earthquakes withM≤6.0 on single faults exhibits a fairly clear pseudo-periodic behaviour, with a coefficient of variation Cv of the order of 0.4-0.8.We found in our synthetic catalogue a clear trend of long-term acceleration of seismic activity preceding M ≤ 6.0 earthquakes and quiescence following those earthquakes. Lastly, as an example of a possible use of synthetic catalogues, an attenuation law was applied to all the events reported in the synthetic catalogue for the production of maps showing the exceedance probability of given values of peak acceleration in the investigated territory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 30 October 1930, an Mw 5.8 earthquake hit the northern Marche coastal area (central Italy), causing significant damage (I0 VIII-IX degree Mercalli-Cancani-Sieberg) along a 40 km stretch of the Adriatic coast between Pesaro and Ancona, centered on the town of Senigallia. This area is characterized by relatively infrequent and moderate-sized earthquakes and by elusive active faults. In spite of the presence of well-known northwest-southeast-trending, northeast-verging fault-propagation folds forming the outer thrusts of the Apennines, the current level of activity, and the kinematics of these coastal structures are still controversial. We present a multidisciplinary analysis of the source of the 30 October 1930 Senigallia earthquake, combining instrumental and macroseismic data and elaborations with available evidence from geological and tectonic investigations. We determine the main seismic parameters of the source, including the earthquake location, its magnitude, and, for the first time, its focal mechanism, providing the first instrumental evidence for thrust faulting along the northern Marche coastal belt. Our findings provide conclusive evidence for the current activity of the northern Marche coastal thrusts. As such they have significant implications for the seismic hazard of the area, a densely populated region that hosts historical heritage, tourism facilities, industrial districts, and key transportation infrastructures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]