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1. Exceptional Lifespans

Author

Maier, Heiner, Jeune, Bernard, Vaupel, James W., Maier, Heiner, Jeune, Bernard, and Vaupel, James W.

Subjects
Demography, Aging, Internal Medicine, Aging Population, Ageing, Population and Demography, Supercentenarians, Longevity, Oldest-old, Mortality, Age validation, open access, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, International Database on Longevity IDL, Population & demography, Age groups: the elderly, Age groups: adults, Clinical & internal medicine, Population and demography, Clinical and internal medicine
Abstract

How long can humans live? This open access book documents, verifies and brings to life the advance of the frontier of human survival. It carefully validates data on supercentenarians, aged 110+, and semi-supercentenarians, aged 105-109, stored in the International Database on Longevity (IDL). The chapters in this book contribute substantial advances in rigorously checked facts about exceptional lifespans and in the application of state-of-the-art analytical strategies to understand trends and patterns in these rare lifespans. The book includes detailed accounts of extreme long-livers and how their long lifespans were documented, as well as reports on the causes of death at the oldest ages. Its key finding, based on the analysis of 1,219 validated supercentenarians, is that the annual probability of death is constant at 50% after age 110. In contrast to previous assertions about a ceiling on the human lifespan, evidence presented in this book suggests that lifespan records in specific countries and globally will be broken again and again as more people survive to become supercentenarians. ​

Published
2020
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2. Visualizing Mortality Dynamics in the Lexis Diagram

Author

Rau, Roland, Bohk-Ewald, Christina, Muszyńska, Magdalena M., Vaupel, James W., and Land, Kenneth

Subjects
data, lexis diagram, mortality dynamics, software, Breast cancer, Colorectal cancer, Creative Commons license, Human Mortality Database, Life expectancy, Lung cancer, Seasonality, United States, Computing and Information Technology
Abstract

The goal of this book is simple: We would like to show how mortality dynamics can be visualized in the so-called Lexis diagram. To appeal to as many potential readers as possible, we do not require any specialist knowledge. This approach may be disappointing: Demographers may have liked more information about the mathematical underpinnings of population dynamics on the Lexis surface as demonstrated, for instance, by Arthur and Vaupel in 1984. Statisticians would have probably preferred more information about the underlying smoothing methods that were used. Epidemiologists likewise might miss discussions about the etiology of diseases. Sociologists would have probably expected that our results were more embedded into theoretical frameworks....

Published
2018
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6. Genetic associations with longevity are on average stronger in females than in males

Author

Zeng, Yi, Chen, Huashuai, Liu, Xiaomin, Song, Zijun, Yao, Yao, Lei, Xiaoyan, Lv, Xiaozhen, Cheng, Lingguo, Chen, Zhihua, Bai, Chen, Yin, Zhaoxue, Lv, Yuebin, Lu, Jiehua, Li, Jianxin, Land, Kenneth C., Yashin, Anatoliy, O'Rand, Angela M., Sun, Liang, Yang, Ze, Tao, Wei, Gu, Jun, Gottschalk, William, Tan, Qihua, Christensen, Kaare, Hesketh, Therese, Tian, Xiao-Li, Yang, Huanming, Egidi, Viviana, Caselli, Graziella, Robine, Jean-Marie, Wang, Huali, Shi, Xiaoming, Vaupel, James W., Lutz, Michael W., Nie, Chao, and Min, Junxia

Published
2024
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7. The long lives of primates and the 'invariant rate of ageing' hypothesis.

Author

Colchero, Fernando, Aburto, José Manuel, Archie, Elizabeth A, Boesch, Christophe, Breuer, Thomas, Campos, Fernando A, Collins, Anthony, Conde, Dalia A, Cords, Marina, Crockford, Catherine, Thompson, Melissa Emery, Fedigan, Linda M, Fichtel, Claudia, Groenenberg, Milou, Hobaiter, Catherine, Kappeler, Peter M, Lawler, Richard R, Lewis, Rebecca J, Machanda, Zarin P, Manguette, Marie L, Muller, Martin N, Packer, Craig, Parnell, Richard J, Perry, Susan, Pusey, Anne E, Robbins, Martha M, Seyfarth, Robert M, Silk, Joan B, Staerk, Johanna, Stoinski, Tara S, Stokes, Emma J, Strier, Karen B, Strum, Shirley C, Tung, Jenny, Villavicencio, Francisco, Wittig, Roman M, Wrangham, Richard W, Zuberbühler, Klaus, Vaupel, James W, and Alberts, Susan C

Subjects
Animals, Primates, Humans, Life Expectancy, Mortality, Models, Statistical, Age Factors, Aging, Longevity, Female, Male, 1.2 Psychological and socioeconomic processes, Underpinning research, Generic health relevance, Good Health and Well Being
Abstract

Is it possible to slow the rate of ageing, or do biological constraints limit its plasticity? We test the 'invariant rate of ageing' hypothesis, which posits that the rate of ageing is relatively fixed within species, with a collection of 39 human and nonhuman primate datasets across seven genera. We first recapitulate, in nonhuman primates, the highly regular relationship between life expectancy and lifespan equality seen in humans. We next demonstrate that variation in the rate of ageing within genera is orders of magnitude smaller than variation in pre-adult and age-independent mortality. Finally, we demonstrate that changes in the rate of ageing, but not other mortality parameters, produce striking, species-atypical changes in mortality patterns. Our results support the invariant rate of ageing hypothesis, implying biological constraints on how much the human rate of ageing can be slowed.

Published
2021

8. The threshold age of Keyfitz' entropy

Author

Aburto, José Manuel, Alvarez, Jesús-Adrián, Villavicencio, Francisco, and Vaupel, James W.

Subjects
Quantitative Biology - Quantitative Methods
Abstract

BACKGROUND Indicators of relative inequality of lifespans are important because they capture the dimensionless shape of aging. They are markers of inequality at the population level and express the uncertainty at the time of death at the individual level. In particular, Keyfitz' entropy $\bar{H}$ represents the elasticity of life expectancy to a change in mortality and it has been used as an indicator of lifespan variation. However, it is unknown how this measure changes over time and whether a threshold age exists, as it does for other lifespan variation indicators. RESULTS The time derivative of $\bar{H}$ can be decomposed into changes in life disparity $e^\dagger$ and life expectancy at birth $e_o$. Likewise, changes over time in $\bar{H}$ are a weighted average of age-specific rates of mortality improvements. These weights reflect the sensitivity of $\bar{H}$ and show how mortality improvements can increase (or decrease) the relative inequality of lifespans. Further, we prove that $\bar{H}$, as well as $e^\dagger$, in the case that mortality is reduced in every age, has a threshold age below which saving lives reduces entropy, whereas improvements above that age increase entropy. CONTRIBUTION We give a formal expression for changes over time of $\bar{H}$ and provide a formal proof of the threshold age that separates reductions and increases in lifespan inequality from age-specific mortality improvements.

Published
2019

9. The human longevity record may hold for decades

Author

Lenart, Adam, Aburto, José Manuel, Stockmarr, Anders, and Vaupel, James W.

Subjects
Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution
Abstract

Since 1990 Jeanne Louise Calment has held the record for human longevity. She was born on 21 February 1875, became the longest-lived human on 12 May 1990 when she was 115.21 and died on 4 August 1997 at age 122.45 years. In this chapter, we use data available on 25 September 2017 on people who reached age 110, supercentenarians, to address the following questions: 1. How likely is it that a person has reached age 122.45? 2. How unlikely is it that Calment's record has not yet been broken? 3. How soon might it be broken? Assuming a constant annual probability of death of 50% after age 110, we found that the probability that a person who survived to age 110 would have lived to 122.45 by 25 September 2017 is 17.1%. Furthermore, we calculated that there was only a 20.3% chance that Calment's record would have been broken after 1997 but before 2017. Finally, we estimated that there is less than a 50% chance that someone will surpass Calment's lifespan before 2045. Jeanne Louise Calment's record is exceptional but not impossible. It does not provide evidence that her lifespan is an upper limit to human lifespans., Comment: 6 pages

Published
2018

10. Preface

Author

Vaupel, James W., Myrskylä, Mikko, Series Editor, Maier, Heiner, editor, Jeune, Bernard, editor, and Vaupel, James W., editor

Published
2021
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12. A meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies identifies multiple longevity genes.

Author

Deelen, Joris, Evans, Daniel S, Arking, Dan E, Tesi, Niccolò, Nygaard, Marianne, Liu, Xiaomin, Wojczynski, Mary K, Biggs, Mary L, van der Spek, Ashley, Atzmon, Gil, Ware, Erin B, Sarnowski, Chloé, Smith, Albert V, Seppälä, Ilkka, Cordell, Heather J, Dose, Janina, Amin, Najaf, Arnold, Alice M, Ayers, Kristin L, Barzilai, Nir, Becker, Elizabeth J, Beekman, Marian, Blanché, Hélène, Christensen, Kaare, Christiansen, Lene, Collerton, Joanna C, Cubaynes, Sarah, Cummings, Steven R, Davies, Karen, Debrabant, Birgit, Deleuze, Jean-François, Duncan, Rachel, Faul, Jessica D, Franceschi, Claudio, Galan, Pilar, Gudnason, Vilmundur, Harris, Tamara B, Huisman, Martijn, Hurme, Mikko A, Jagger, Carol, Jansen, Iris, Jylhä, Marja, Kähönen, Mika, Karasik, David, Kardia, Sharon LR, Kingston, Andrew, Kirkwood, Thomas BL, Launer, Lenore J, Lehtimäki, Terho, Lieb, Wolfgang, Lyytikäinen, Leo-Pekka, Martin-Ruiz, Carmen, Min, Junxia, Nebel, Almut, Newman, Anne B, Nie, Chao, Nohr, Ellen A, Orwoll, Eric S, Perls, Thomas T, Province, Michael A, Psaty, Bruce M, Raitakari, Olli T, Reinders, Marcel JT, Robine, Jean-Marie, Rotter, Jerome I, Sebastiani, Paola, Smith, Jennifer, Sørensen, Thorkild IA, Taylor, Kent D, Uitterlinden, André G, van der Flier, Wiesje, van der Lee, Sven J, van Duijn, Cornelia M, van Heemst, Diana, Vaupel, James W, Weir, David, Ye, Kenny, Zeng, Yi, Zheng, Wanlin, Holstege, Henne, Kiel, Douglas P, Lunetta, Kathryn L, Slagboom, P Eline, and Murabito, Joanne M

Subjects
Humans, Heat-Shock Proteins, Longevity, Apolipoprotein E2, Apolipoprotein E4, Genome-Wide Association Study
Abstract

Human longevity is heritable, but genome-wide association (GWA) studies have had limited success. Here, we perform two meta-analyses of GWA studies of a rigorous longevity phenotype definition including 11,262/3484 cases surviving at or beyond the age corresponding to the 90th/99th survival percentile, respectively, and 25,483 controls whose age at death or at last contact was at or below the age corresponding to the 60th survival percentile. Consistent with previous reports, rs429358 (apolipoprotein E (ApoE) ε4) is associated with lower odds of surviving to the 90th and 99th percentile age, while rs7412 (ApoE ε2) shows the opposite. Moreover, rs7676745, located near GPR78, associates with lower odds of surviving to the 90th percentile age. Gene-level association analysis reveals a role for tissue-specific expression of multiple genes in longevity. Finally, genetic correlation of the longevity GWA results with that of several disease-related phenotypes points to a shared genetic architecture between health and longevity.

Published
2019

17. The plateau of human mortality: Demography of longevity pioneers

Author

Barbi, Elisabetta, Lagona, Francesco, Marsili, Marco, Vaupel, James W, and Wachter, Kenneth W

Subjects
Human Society, Demography, Aging, Good Health and Well Being, Aged, 80 and over, Female, Humans, Italy, Longevity, Male, Mortality, Proportional Hazards Models, General Science & Technology
Abstract

Theories about biological limits to life span and evolutionary shaping of human longevity depend on facts about mortality at extreme ages, but these facts have remained a matter of debate. Do hazard curves typically level out into high plateaus eventually, as seen in other species, or do exponential increases persist? In this study, we estimated hazard rates from data on all inhabitants of Italy aged 105 and older between 2009 and 2015 (born 1896-1910), a total of 3836 documented cases. We observed level hazard curves, which were essentially constant beyond age 105. Our estimates are free from artifacts of aggregation that limited earlier studies and provide the best evidence to date for the existence of extreme-age mortality plateaus in humans.

Published
2018

22. Alternative Forecasts of Danish Life Expectancy

Author

Bergeron-Boucher, Marie-Pier, Kjæ rgaard, Søren, Pascariu, Marius D., Aburto, José Manuel, Alvarez, Jesús-Adrián, Basellini, Ugofilippo, Rizzi, Silvia, Vaupel, James W., Land, Kenneth C., Series Editor, Mazzuco, Stefano, editor, and Keilman, Nico, editor

Published
2020
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28. Data gaps and opportunities for comparative and conservation biology

Author

Conde, Dalia A., Staerk, Johanna, Colchero, Fernando, da Silva, Rita, Schöley, Jonas, Baden, H. Maria, Jouvet, Lionel, Fa, John E., Syed, Hassan, Jongejans, Eelke, Meiri, Shai, Gaillard, Jean-Michel, Chamberlain, Scott, Wilcken, Jonathan, Jones, Owen R., Dahlgren, Johan P., Steiner, Ulrich K., Bland, Lucie M., Gomez-Mestre, Ivan, Lebreton, Jean-Dominique, Vargas, Jaime González, Flesness, Nate, Canudas-Romo, Vladimir, Salguero-Gómez, Roberto, Byers, Onnie, Berg, Thomas Bjørneboe, Scheuerlein, Alexander, Devillard, Sébastien, Schigel, Dmitry S., Ryder, Oliver A., Possingham, Hugh P., Baudisch, Annette, and Vaupel, James W.

Published
2019

31. Seasonality of Causes of Death

Author

Rau, Roland, Bohk-Ewald, Christina, Muszyńska, Magdalena M., Vaupel, James W., Land, Kenneth C., Series editor, Rau, Roland, Bohk-Ewald, Christina, Muszyńska, Magdalena M., and Vaupel, James W.

Published
2018
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34. Surface Plots of Smoothed Mortality Data

Author

Rau, Roland, Bohk-Ewald, Christina, Muszyńska, Magdalena M., Vaupel, James W., Land, Kenneth C., Series editor, Rau, Roland, Bohk-Ewald, Christina, Muszyńska, Magdalena M., and Vaupel, James W.

Published
2018
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35. Data and Software

Author

Rau, Roland, Bohk-Ewald, Christina, Muszyńska, Magdalena M., Vaupel, James W., Land, Kenneth C., Series editor, Rau, Roland, Bohk-Ewald, Christina, Muszyńska, Magdalena M., and Vaupel, James W.

Published
2018
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36. Surface Plots of Observed Death Rates

Author

Rau, Roland, Bohk-Ewald, Christina, Muszyńska, Magdalena M., Vaupel, James W., Land, Kenneth C., Series editor, Rau, Roland, Bohk-Ewald, Christina, Muszyńska, Magdalena M., and Vaupel, James W.

Published
2018
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37. The Lexis Diagram

Author

Rau, Roland, Bohk-Ewald, Christina, Muszyńska, Magdalena M., Vaupel, James W., Land, Kenneth C., Series editor, Rau, Roland, Bohk-Ewald, Christina, Muszyńska, Magdalena M., and Vaupel, James W.

Published
2018
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39. Surface Plots for Cancer Survival

Author

Rau, Roland, Bohk-Ewald, Christina, Muszyńska, Magdalena M., Vaupel, James W., Land, Kenneth C., Series editor, Rau, Roland, Bohk-Ewald, Christina, Muszyńska, Magdalena M., and Vaupel, James W.

Published
2018
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40. Summary and Outlook

Author

Rau, Roland, Bohk-Ewald, Christina, Muszyńska, Magdalena M., Vaupel, James W., Land, Kenneth C., Series editor, Rau, Roland, Bohk-Ewald, Christina, Muszyńska, Magdalena M., and Vaupel, James W.

Published
2018
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41. Diet Shapes Mortality Response to Trauma in Old Tephritid Fruit Flies.

Author

Carey, James R, Liedo, Pablo, Xu, Cong, Wang, Jane-Ling, Müller, Hans-Georg, Su, Yu-Ru, and Vaupel, James W

Subjects
Animals, Tephritidae, Caloric Restriction, Diet, Proportional Hazards Models, Behavior, Animal, Sex Factors, Longevity, Fertility, Algorithms, Female, Male, Stress, Physiological, Behavior, Animal, Stress, Physiological, General Science & Technology
Abstract

Despite the importance of trauma in healthspan and lifespan in humans as well as in non-human species, with one important exception the literature in both gerontology and ecology contains virtually no experimental demographic studies concerned with trauma in any species. We used dietary manipulation [full diet (F) versus sugar-only (S)] to produce four levels of frailty in 55-day old tephritid fruit flies (Anastrepha ludens) that were then subject to the trauma of cage transfer stress (n = 900/sex in each of the 4 treatments). The key results included the following: (1) there is a trauma effect caused by the transfer that depends on previous diet before transfer, new diet after transfer and gender of the fly; (2) males are more vulnerable than females; (3) if initial diet was F, flies are relatively immune against the trauma, and the subsequent diet (F or S) does not matter; (4) however if initial diet was S, then the effect of the trauma depends largely on the diet after the transfer; (5) flies transferred from S to F diets do very well in terms of remaining longevity (i.e. greatest remaining longevity), while flies transferred from S to S diet do poorly (i.e. shortest remaining longevity). We discuss both the strengths and weaknesses of this study and implications of the results.

Published
2016

42. 27 Biodemography

Author

Carey, James R., Vaupel, James W., DeLamater, John, Series Editor, and Poston Jr., Dudley L., editor

Published
2019
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45. Introduction

Author

Bengtsson, Tommy, Keilman, Nico, Alho, Juha M., Christensen, Kaare, Palmer, Edward, Vaupel, James W., Myrskylä, Mikko, Editor-in-Chief, Bengtsson, Tommy, editor, and Keilman, Nico, editor

Published
2019
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46. Publisher Correction: A meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies identifies multiple longevity genes

Author

Deelen, Joris, Evans, Daniel S., Arking, Dan E., Tesi, Niccolò, Nygaard, Marianne, Liu, Xiaomin, Wojczynski, Mary K., Biggs, Mary L., van der Spek, Ashley, Atzmon, Gil, Ware, Erin B., Sarnowski, Chloé, Smith, Albert V., Seppälä, Ilkka, Cordell, Heather J., Dose, Janina, Amin, Najaf, Arnold, Alice M., Ayers, Kristin L., Barzilai, Nir, Becker, Elizabeth J., Beekman, Marian, Blanché, Hélène, Christensen, Kaare, Christiansen, Lene, Collerton, Joanna C., Cubaynes, Sarah, Cummings, Steven R., Davies, Karen, Debrabant, Birgit, Deleuze, Jean-François, Duncan, Rachel, Faul, Jessica D., Franceschi, Claudio, Galan, Pilar, Gudnason, Vilmundur, Harris, Tamara B., Huisman, Martijn, Hurme, Mikko A., Jagger, Carol, Jansen, Iris, Jylhä, Marja, Kähönen, Mika, Karasik, David, Kardia, Sharon L. R., Kingston, Andrew, Kirkwood, Thomas B. L., Launer, Lenore J., Lehtimäki, Terho, Lieb, Wolfgang, Lyytikäinen, Leo-Pekka, Martin-Ruiz, Carmen, Min, Junxia, Nebel, Almut, Newman, Anne B., Nie, Chao, Nohr, Ellen A., Orwoll, Eric S., Perls, Thomas T., Province, Michael A., Psaty, Bruce M., Raitakari, Olli T., Reinders, Marcel J. T., Robine, Jean-Marie, Rotter, Jerome I., Sebastiani, Paola, Smith, Jennifer, Sørensen, Thorkild I. A., Taylor, Kent D., Uitterlinden, André G., van der Flier, Wiesje, van der Lee, Sven J., van Duijn, Cornelia M., van Heemst, Diana, Vaupel, James W., Weir, David, Ye, Kenny, Zeng, Yi, Zheng, Wanlin, Holstege, Henne, Kiel, Douglas P., Lunetta, Kathryn L., Slagboom, P. Eline, and Murabito, Joanne M.

Published
2021
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47. TECHNICAL COMMENT ABSTRACTS

Author

Barbi, Elisabetta, Lagona, Francesco, Marsili, Marco, Vaupel, James W., and W. Wachter, Kenneth

Published
2018

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