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As a contribution towards a regional environmental context of human-climate interactions, the ICDP co-funded Chew Bahir Drilling Project, a part of the HSPDP (Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project), recovered ~280-m long cores of sedimentary strata through continental scientific drilling in southern Ethiopia. The fluvio-lacustrine coring locality in the Chew Bahir basin is situated near key archaeological and paleoanthropological sites, such as the Omo-Kibish where the Omo 1 and 2 Homo sapiens fossils were recovered.Here we present the 620,000-year environmental record from Chew Bahir that provides an extraordinary opportunity to examine the potential influence of climate variability on hominin evolution, cultural innovation and dispersal during the Middle to Late Pleistocene. The near-continuous Chew Bahir record documents 13 environmental episodes that differ in length and character, potentially inducing habitat changes influencing hominin biological and cultural transformation. We infer that long-lasting and relatively stable humid conditions from ~620,000–275,000 years BP (Episodes 1–6) were interrupted by several abrupt and extreme hydroclimatic oscillations. This phase coincided with the appearance of high anatomical diversity in hominin groups. During Episodes 7–9 (~275,000–60,000 years BP), a pronounced pattern of climatic cyclicity was paralleled by the gradual transition from Acheulean to Middle Stone Age technologies, the emergence of H. sapiens in eastern Africa, and a key phase of human social and cultural innovation. Episodes 10–12 (~60,000–10,000 years BP), marked by high-frequency climate oscillations, is contemporaneous with the global dispersal of H. sapiens, facilitated by continued technological innovation and the alignment of humid pulses between eastern Africa and the eastern Mediterranean.Prospectively, the Chew Bahir record represents a crucial component for the Middle and Late Pleistocene in the ongoing efforts of the scientific community (future and upcoming ICDP-funded projects) to address questions in Africa across four topical core areas: paleoclimate, paleoenvironment, basin evolution, and modern lake systems.

The study of the mid-Holocene climate tipping point in tropical and subtropical Africa is the subject of current research, not only because there is a comparatively simple but nonlinear relationship between the change in cause (orbital forcing) and the accelerated response of the monsoon system, but also because the African monsoon is an example of a potentially positive evolution of living conditions for humans: modeling results suggest that the Sahel is expanding northward in the wake of human-induced recent global warming, with green belts spreading northward. New literature distinguishes tipping elements such as the African monsoon according to the nature of the cause and the response of the climate system. Research here focuses primarily on tipping points of the type, which is characterized by a critical slowing down and a decreasing recovery from perturbations. The African monsoon, on the other hand, is an example of the tipping point of the type, which is characterized by flickering before the transition. The two types also differ in the nature of their early warning signals (EWS). These EWS are increasingly becoming the focus of research, as they are particularly important for predicting possible tipping of climate in the future of our planet. For the African monsoon system, flickering between two stable states near the transition has been predicted by modeling, but has not yet been demonstrated on paleoclimate time series.The paleoenvironmental record from the Chew Bahir Basin in the southern Ethiopian Rift, which documents the climate history of eastern Africa of the past ~620 ka with decadal resolution in some parts provides the possibility to examine the termination of the African Humid Period (AHP, ~15–5 kyr BP) with regard to the possible occurrence of EWS. Thanks to six well-dated short sediment cores (

In this study, we synthesize terrestrial and marine proxy records, spanning the past 620,000 years, to decipher pan-African climate variability and its drivers and potential linkages to hominin evolution. We find a tight correlation between moisture availability across Africa to El Niño Southern Ocean oscillation (ENSO) variability, a manifestation of the Walker Circulation, that was most likely driven by changes in Earth’s eccentricity. Our results demonstrate that low-latitude insolation was a prominent driver of pan-African climate change during the Middle to Late Pleistocene. We argue that these low-latitude climate processes governed the dispersion and evolution of vegetation as well as mammals in eastern and western Africa by increasing resource-rich and stable ecotonal settings thought to have been important to early modern humans.

Understanding eastern African paleoclimate is critical for contextualizing early human evolution, adaptation, and dispersal, yet Pleistocene climate of this region and its governing mechanisms remain poorly understood due to the lack of long, orbitally-resolved, terrestrial paleoclimate records. Here we present leaf wax hydrogen isotope records of rainfall from paleolake sediment cores from key time windows that resolve long-term trends, variations, and high-latitude effects on tropical African precipitation. Eastern African rainfall was dominantly controlled by variations in low-latitude summer insolation during most of the early and middle Pleistocene, with little evidence that glacial–interglacial cycles impacted rainfall until the late Pleistocene. We observe the influence of high-latitude-driven climate processes emerging from the last interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 5) to the present, an interval when glacial–interglacial cycles were strong and insolation forcing was weak. Our results demonstrate a variable response of eastern African rainfall to low-latitude insolation forcing and high-latitude-driven climate change, likely related to the relative strengths of these forcings through time and a threshold in monsoon sensitivity. We observe little difference in mean rainfall between the early, middle, and late Pleistocene, which suggests that orbitally-driven climate variations likely played a more significant role than gradual change in the relationship between early humans and their environment.

Reconstructions of climatic and environmental conditions can contribute to current debates about the factors that influenced early human dispersal within and beyond Africa. Here we analyse a 200,000-year multi-proxy paleoclimate record from Chew Bahir, a tectonic lake basin in the southern Ethiopian rift. Our record reveals two modes of climate change, both associated temporally and regionally with a specific type of human behavior. The first is a long-term trend towards greater aridity between 200,000 and 60,000 years ago, modulated by precession-driven wet-dry cycles. Here, more favorable wetter environmental conditions may have facilitated long-range human expansion into new territory, while less favorable dry periods may have led to spatial constriction and isolation of local human populations. The second mode of climate change observed since 60,000 years ago mimics millennial to centennial-scale Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles and Heinrich events. We hypothesize that human populations may have responded to these shorter climate fluctuations with local dispersal between montane and lowland habitats.

In this study, we synthesize terrestrial and marine proxy records, spanning the past 620 ky, to decipher pan-African climate variability and its drivers and potential linkages to hominin evolution. We find a tight correlation between moisture availability across Africa to El Niño Southern Ocean oscillation (ENSO) variability, a manifestation of the Walker Circulation, that was most likely driven by changes in Earth's eccentricity. Our results demonstrate that low-latitude insolation was a prominent driver of pan-African climate change during the Middle to Late Pleistocene. We argue that these low-latitude climate processes governed the dispersion and evolution of vegetation as well as mammals in eastern and western Africa by increasing resource-rich and stable ecotonal settings thought to have been important to early modern humans.

The Chew Bahir Drilling Project (CBDP) aims to test possible linkages between climate and evolution in Africa through the analysis of sediment cores that have recorded environmental changes in the Chew Bahir basin. In this statistical project we consider the Chew Bahir palaeolake to be a dynamical system consisting of interactions between its different components, such as the waterbody, the sediment beneath lake, and the organisms living within and around the lake. Recurrence is a common feature of such dynamical systems, with recurring patterns in the state of the system reflecting typical influences. Identifying and defining these influences contributes significantly to our understanding of the dynamics of the system. Different recurring changes in precipitation, evaporation, and wind speed in the Chew Bahir basin could result in similar (but not identical) conditions in the lake (e.g., depth and area of the lake, alkalinity and salinity of the lake water, species assemblages in the water body, and diagenesis in the sediments). Recurrence plots (RPs) are graphic displays of such recurring states within a system. Measures of complexity were subsequently introduced to complement the visual inspection of recurrence plots, and provide quantitative descriptions for use in recurrence quantification analysis (RQA). We present and discuss herein results from an RQA on the environmental record from six short (

The hypothesis of a connection between the onset (or intensification) of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (NHG), the stepwise increase in African aridity (and climate variability) and an important mammalian (including hominin) species turnover is a textbook example of the initiation of a scientific idea and its propagation in science. It is, however, also an example of the persistent popularity of a hypothesis despite mounting evidence against it. The first part of our work analyzes of the history of the scientific idea by seeking its roots, including coincidental meetings and exchanges between of scientists, at project meetings, conferences and workshops. The consequences of this idea are examined and its influence on subsequent scientific investigations both before and after it has been falsified. In the second part of our investigation, we examine why the idea that the high latitudes have a major control on the climate of the low latitudes and thus early human evolution persists. For this purpose, an attempt is made to understand the original interpretation of the data, with special consideration of the composition of the scientific team and their scientific backgrounds and persuasions. Some of the key records in support of the hypothesis of a step-wise transition will be statistically re-analyzed by fitting change-point models to the time series to determine the midpoint and duration of the transition – in case such a transition is found in the data. A critical review of key publications in support of such a connection and a statistical re-analysis of key data sets leads to three conclusions: (1) Northern Hemisphere Glaciation is a gradual process between ~3.5–2.5 Ma, not an abrupt onset, either at ~2.5 Ma, nor at ~2.8 Ma, or any other time in the Late Cenozoic Era, (2) the trend towards greater aridity in Africa during this period was also gradual, not stepwise in the sense of a consistent transition of a duration of ≤0.2 Ma, and (3) accordingly, a step-wise change in environmental conditions cannot be used to explain an important mammalian (including hominin) species turnover.

Humans have been adapting to more demanding habitats in the course of their evolutionary history. Nevertheless, environmental changes coupled with overpopulation naturally limit competition for resources. In order to find such limits, reconstructions of climate and population changes are increasingly used for the continent of our origin, Africa. However, continuous and high-resolution records of climate-human interactions are still scarce. Using a 280 m sediment core from Chew Bahir*, a wide tectonic basin in southern Ethiopia, we reconstruct the paleoenvironmental conditions during the development of Homo sapiens. The complete multiproxy record of the composite core covers the last ~600 ka , allowing tests of hypotheses about the influence of climate change on human evolution and technological innovation from the Late Acheulean to the Middle/Late Stone Age, and on dispersal within and out of Africa. Here we present results from the uppermost 100 meters of the Chew Bahir core, spanning the last 200 kiloyears (ka). The record shows two modes of environmental change that are associated with two types of human mobility. The first mode is a long-term trend towards a more arid climate, overlain by precession-driven wet-dry alternation. Through comparison with the archaeological record, humid episodes appear to have led to the opening of ‘green’ networks between favourable habitats and thus to increased human mobility on a regional scale. The second mode of environmental change resembles millennial-scale Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events, which seem to coincide with enhanced vertical mobility from the Ethiopian rift to the highlands, especially in the time frame between ~65–21 ka BP. The coincidence of climate change and human mobility patterns help to define the limiting conditions for early Homo sapiens in eastern Africa.___________________* cored in the context of HSPDP (Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project) and CRC (Collaborative Research Centre) 806 “Our way to Europe”

What role did climate dynamics play in the evolution and dispersal of Homo sapiens within and beyond Africa, and in key cultural innovations? Were gradual climatic changes, rapid shifts from wet to dry, or short-term climate flickers the main driver of human evolution and migration? As a contribution towards an enhanced understanding of those possible human-climate interactions the Chew Bahir Drilling Project, part of the Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP) and the Collaborative Research Center (CRC) 806 “Our way to Europe”, recovered two ~280 m-long sediment cores from a deep, tectonically-bound basin in the southern Ethiopian rift in late 2014. The Chew Bahir record covers the past ~600 ka of environmental history, a critical time period that includes the transition from the Acheulean to the Middle Stone Age, and the origin and dispersal of Homo sapiens. Here we present the results from our multi-proxy study of the Chew Bahir 280 m-long composite core, providing a detailed and high-resolution record of eastern Africa’s climate oscillations during the last ~600 ka. To determine sediment age we used a Bayesian model to combine ages derived from radiocarbon dating of ostracodes, optically-stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of quartz, Argon-Argon (40Ar/39Ar) dating of feldspar grains from some key (micro)tephra layers, and correlation on the basis of geochemistry of a tephra unit in the core to a known and dated tephra in the outcrop. We used high-resolution geophysical and geochemical indicators, such as the established aridity proxy K, sediment colour and authigenic minerals to differentiate between climate fluctuations on different time scales and magnitudes. Our results show that the full proxy record from Chew Bahir can be divided into three phases with similar trends in central tendency and dispersion. Phase I from ~600 to ~430 kyr BP shows a long-term shift from humid to arid conditions while slightly increasing the variability and ending with the most extreme oscillations between full humidity and extreme aridity. The transition into Phase II (~430 to ~200 kyr BP) is marked by a pronounced millennial-scale humidity increase. Phase II reflects generally more humid conditions and there is evidence of double humidity increase tendency. Firstly, between ~430 and ~315 kyr BP (Phase IIa), and again from ~280 to ~195 kyr BP (Phase IIb), with only slight changes in long-term variability. Since ~200 kyr BP (Phase III), a long-term aridification trend sets in, similar to Phase I, but with a distinct increase in variability and amplitudes. All of these changes would have had significant implications for shaping our ancestors’ living environments, both broadening and limiting their options in response to the different degrees and rates of climatic stress. The Chew Bahir record, one of the very few long terrestrial environmental records from continental eastern Africa, can contribute to testing the influence of low versus high latitude climate change in driving the expansion, contraction and fragmentation of early human habitats.

The sediment cores of the Chew Bahir drilling project, part of the Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP), from southern Ethiopia, were used to reconstruct climatic changes by analyzing the sediment geochemistry with high-resolution XRF scanning. To interpret the multidimensional XRF dataset we computed a principal component analysis. We used the first principal component (PC1) to detect changes in variability by running a windowed standard deviation analysis and additionally a change point analysis to detect the exact timing of variability changes. Additionally we used the established Chew Bahir log(K/Zr) aridity proxy, representing clay mineral chemistry- detrital input ratio and compared it to a new Chew Bahir climate indicator, the log(Ca/Ti) proxy, an evaporation signal that is probably inversely related to lake level stands. We find that the log(Ca/Ti) record is also an exceptionally good climate indicator because, compared to the established log(K/Zr) proxy, it reacts with greater amplitude to insolation-controlled signals such as orbital precession. This is confirmed by the log (Ca/Ti) record showing a very clear signal during the African Humid Period, which is however less pronounced in the log(K/Zr) record. To gain a deeper understanding of the climate cycles and their temporal evolution, we computed a continuous wavelet transformation (CWT) for each of the climate proxies, and studied temporal changes in their cyclicity. Our results indicate that in addition to the precession cycle (~ 20 kyr), the Chew Bahir climate record contains earth eccentricity cycles (~ 100 kyr), as well as half-precession cycles during high eccentricity. During low eccentricity (450-350 kyr ago), we find reduced variability, three of five changes in standard deviation, damped precession and half precession cycles, and an abrupt transition from dry to wet climate, possibly due to climatic change in high latitudes which may be related to the Mid-Bruhnes event (MBE). The results confirm that during high eccentricity the tropics are insolation controlled, largely independent of the high latitudes, whereas during low eccentricity the climate of tropical eastern Africa is sensitive to climatic drivers other than precession, possibly originating from high latitudes. Such a period occurring 450 to 350 kyr ago could have led to large regional differences in moisture availability and may have affected early humans by habitat separation, which by isolating populations, resulted in technological diversification. This possible scenario may help to explain the technological transition from Middle Stone Age (MSA) to Acheulean technology that was documented in the Olorgesailie basin during the same time period.

It has been a long-standing and passionately discussed hypothesis that important developments in human origins over the last 6-8 Ma coincided with environmental change, including cooling, drying, and wider climate fluctuations. However, testing these hypotheses is difficult as both high resolution climate records and fossil records of early human populations are often incomplete and poorly dated. Thus, to better understand the role that past African climate changes might have played in the evolution and dispersal of our ancestors, in particular Homo sapiens, we have developed a ~620,000 year record of humidity variability from the Chew Bahir basin situated in southern Ethiopia. This 293 m composite lacustrine sediment succession was compiled from two parallel cores HSPDP-CHB14-2A and 2B collected as part of the Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP) in 2014. We utilized the log(K/Zr) ratio determined by micro X-ray fluorescence (μXRF) scanning to analyse past moisture changes in the Chew Bahir basin. By placing our results into the existing framework of marine and terrestrial proxy records from various parts of Africa and its surrounding oceans we document a close coupling between the spatio-temporal distribution of African rainfall and sea-surface temperature changes in the Indo-Pacific realm on orbital time scales. We argue that this coupling is facilitated by shifts in the Walker and Hadley circulations in response to insolation variability at the same time.

This paper reports on the application of advanced hyperspectral analysis to support the non-destructive study of samples from long sediment cores (up to 280 m coring depth) collected under the Hominin Sites and Paleolake Drilling Program (HSPDP) in the Chew Bahir region of southern Ethiopia. For this purpose, the bidirectional reflectance of 35 core samples from different core depths in the wavelength range from 0.25 to 17 µm was measured. It can be directly compared with spectral remote sensing data of the corresponding land surface areas. We examined the relationship between the derived mineralogical and geochemical properties of the core samples to test for linkage to the hydroclimate history of the region. Using XRD and µXRD methods, it has been shown that an illitization of the smectites and an octahedral Al-to-Mg substitution occurs in the phyllosilicate materials present during phases that have been associated with increased salinity and alkalinity due to enhanced evaporation (Foerster et al., 2018). These processes are found to be accompanied by potassium fixation and they are associated with the increase of the layer charge due to the authigenic changes of the octahedral composition. Reflection spectroscopy is a suitable method for studying such mineralogical properties.We investigated the spectral properties over a wide spectral range from UV to MIR. This enables detection of absorption bands of crystal field transitions of transition metal ions in the UV/VIS range and to detect the characteristic bands of OH, H2O, M-OH lattice vibrations in the NIR. It also allows the study of the fundamental vibration bands as well as other typical MIR features like the Christiansen band or transparency features of silicates and thus helps to reconstruct weathering paths.The results show that the main mineralogical components are clays of the smectite group. The samples are rich in montmorillonite and show variable concentrations of calcite. The clays are composed of tetrahedral coordinated, corner-connected SiO4 for which Si is partially substituted by Al and of edge-linked Al (OH)6 octahedrons in which part of the Al is substituted by Mg and which are layered by OH and H2O groups. Thus all reflectance spectra show the characteristic absorption bands at 1.4 µm (OH), 1.9 µm (H2O), 2.2 µm (Al-OH), and 2.3 µm (Mg-OH). Their band depth ratios derived from continuum removed spectra have been used to characterize the clay structure within different climate periods. The results support the model of illitization and potassium fixation during dry climate intervals. In addition, the spectral indicators determined in the MIR can be used to specify the mineralogical properties of silicates and other materials in terms of their geochemical composition. In summary, the method is suitable for examining the main mineralogical components of Chew Bahir core samples and enables confirmation of climate-driven wet and dry weathering processes in the formation of phyllosilicates.Foerster, V. et al., (2018) Towards an understanding of climate proxy formation in the Chew Bahir basin, southern Ethiopian Rift. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 501, 111-123.

The Chew Bahir Drilling Project (CBDP) aims to test possible linkages between climate and evolution in Africa through the analysis of sediment cores that record Quaternary environmental changes in the Chew Bahir basin. In this statistical project we used recurrence plots (PRs) together with a recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) to distinguish two types of variability and transitions in Chew Bahir and compare them with the ODP 967 wetness index from the eastern Mediterranean. The first type of variability are slow variations with cycles of ~20 kyr and subharmonics of this cycle. In addition to the these cyclical wet-dry fluctuations in the area, extreme events often occur, i.e. short wet or dry episodes, lasting for several centuries or even millennia, with rapid transitions between wet and dry episodes. The second type of variability is characterized by relatively low variation on orbital time scales, but significant century-to-millennium-scale variations with increasing frequency in the course of an episode of type 2 variability. Within this type of variability there are extremely fast transitions between dry and wet, and vice versa, within a few decades or years, in contrast to those within type 1 which have transitions lasting several hundred years. Type 1 variability probably reflects the influence of precessional forcing in the lower latitudes at times of increased eccentricity, with the tendency towards extreme events, whereas type 2 variability seems to be linked with minimum values of the long (400 kyr) eccentricity cycle, and there does not seem to be a link with atmospheric CO2 levels. The different types of variability and transitions certainly had a completely different influence on the availability of water, food and shelter, and hence eastern Africa’s biotic environment, including the habitat of H. sapiens.

Deciphering paleoclimate from lake sediments is a challenge due to the complex relationship between climate parameters and sediment composition. Here we show the links between potassium (K) concentrations in the sediments of the Chew Bahir basin in the Southern Ethiopian Rift and fluctuations in the catchment precipitation/evaporation balance. Our micro-X-ray fluorescence and X-ray diffraction results suggest that the most likely process linking climate with potassium concentrations is the authigenic illitization of smectites during episodes of higher alkalinity and salinity in the closed -basin lake, due to a drier climate. Whole-rock and clay size fraction analyses suggest that illitization of the Chew Bahir clay minerals with increasing evaporation is enhanced by octahedral Al-to-Mg substitution in the clay minerals, with the resulting layer charge increase facilitating potassium-fixation. Linking mineralogy with geochemistry shows the links between hydroclimatic control, process and formation of the Chew Bahir K patterns, in the context of well-known and widely documented eastern African climate fluctuations over the last 45,000 years. These results indicate characteristic mineral alteration patterns associated with orbitally controlled wet-dry cycles such as the African Humid Period (similar to 15-5 ka) or high-latitude controlled climate events such as the Younger Dryas (similar to 12.8-11.6 ka) chronozone. Determining the impact of authigenic mineral alteration on the Chew Bahir records enables the interpretation of the previously established pXRF-derived aridity proxy K and provides a better paleohydrological understanding of complex climate proxy formation.

We used a change point analysis on a late Pleistocene-Holocene lake-sediment record from the Chew Bahir basin in the southern Ethiopian Rift to determine the amplitude and duration of past climate transitions. The most dramatic changes occurred over 240 yr (from similar to 15,700 to 15,460 yr) during the onset of the African Humid Period (AHP), and over 990 yr (from similar to 4875 to 3885 yr) during its protracted termination. The AHP was interrupted by a distinct dry period coinciding with the high-latitude Younger Dryas stadial, which had an abrupt onset (less than similar to 100 yr) at similar to 13,260 yr and lasted until similar to 11,730 yr. Wet-dry-wet transitions prior to the AHP may reflect the high-latitude Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles, as indicated by cross-correlation of the potassium record with the NorthGRIP ice core record between similar to 45-20 ka. These findings may contribute to the debates regarding the amplitude, and duration and mechanisms of past climate transitions, and their possible influence on the development of early modern human cultures.

There is ongoing debate concerning whether or not changes in the eastern African climate, both long-term and short-term, affected the evolution, dispersal, cultural development, and technological innovations of Homo sapiens – and if so, in what way. We present the wavelet spectral analysis results of a ∼620 kyr record of environmental change from the Chew Bahir (CHB) basin in the southern Ethiopian rift, approximately 120 km from the Omo-Kibish fossil locality, which boasts one of the oldest documented appearances of H. sapiens. Our results indicate that the long-term wet-dry changes in the eastern African climate recorded in the CHB sediments were mainly caused by changes in orbital eccentricity, with relatively dry but variable climates occurring during eccentricity minima within the 400 kyr eccentricity cycle, and increased precipitation, interspersed with distinctly dryer phases associated with orbital precession, during eccentricity maxima. Such insolation-forced precipitation changes would have affected the habitat of H. sapiens in the region; the transition from Acheulean to Middle Stone Age (MSA) documented in the Olorgesailie Basin of southern Kenya coincides with a distinct eccentricity minimum with reduced precipitation and repeated abrupt climatic transitions. In contrast, at the time of the subsequent, first documented occurrence of H. sapiens in eastern Africa the climate was distinctly wetter and less variable.

During the past 25 ka, southern Ethiopia has undergone tremendous climatic changes, from dry and relatively cold during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 25–18 ka) to the African Humid Period (AHP, 15–5 ka), and back to present-day dry conditions. As a contribution to better understand the effects of climate change on vegetation and lakes, we here present a new Predictive Vegetation Model that is linked with a Lake Balance Model and available vegetation-proxy records from southern Ethiopia including a new phytolith record from the Chew Bahir basin. We constructed a detailed paleo-landcover map of southern Ethiopia during the LGM, AHP (with and without influence of the Congo Air Boundary) and the modern-day potential natural landcover. Compared to today, we observe a 15–20% reduction in moisture availability during the LGM with widespread open landscapes and only few remaining forest refugia. We identify 25–40% increased moisture availability during the AHP with prevailing forests in the mid-altitudes and indications that modern anthropogenic landcover change has affected the water balance. In comparison with existing archaeological records, we find that human occupations tend to correspond with open landscapes during the late Pleistocene and Holocene in southern Ethiopia.

The hypothesis of a connection between the onset (or intensification) of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation, the stepwise increase in African aridity (and climate variability), and an important mammalian (including hominin) species turnover is a textbook example of the initiation of a scientific idea and its propagation in science. It is, however, also an example of the persistent popularity of a hypothesis despite mounting evidence against it. A critical review of key publications on the topic and statistical re-analysis of key records of global ice volume and African climate leads to three conclusions: (1) The Northern Hemisphere Glaciation was a gradual process occurring between ∼3.5 and 2.5 Ma, not a single event at ∼2.8 Ma or at any other time. (2) A consistent stepwise (+/−0.2 Ma) transition toward greater aridity in Africa at ∼2.8 Ma does not exist; instead, there are regionally different, gradual transitions partly in connection with the intensification of the Northern Hemisphere Glaciation, but above all with the establishment of the tropical Walker Circulation after ∼2 Ma. (3) Mammalian (including hominin) species turnovers at this time also appear to have been gradual, rather than stepwise.

The Chew Bahir Drilling Project (CBDP) aims to test possible linkages between climate and hominin evolution in Africa through the analysis of sediment cores that have recorded environmental changes in the Chew Bahir basin (CHB). In this statistical project we used recurrence plots (RPs) together with a recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) to distinguish two types of variability and transitions in the Chew Bahir aridity record and compare them with the ODP Site 967 wetness index from the eastern Mediterranean. The first type of variability is one of slow variations with cycles of ∼20 kyr, reminiscent of the Earth’s precession cycle, and subharmonics of this orbital cycle. In addition to these cyclical wet-dry fluctuations in the area, extreme events often occur, i.e. short wet or dry episodes, lasting for several centuries or even millennia, and rapid transitions between these wet and dry episodes. The second type of variability is characterized by relatively low variation on orbital time scales, but significant century-millennium-scale variations with progressively increasing frequencies. Within this type of variability there are extremely fast transitions between dry and wet within a few decades or years, in contrast to those within Type 1 with transitions over several hundreds of years. Type 1 variability probably reflects the influence of precessional forcing in the lower latitudes at times with maximum values of the long (400 kyr) eccentricity cycle of the Earth’s orbit around the sun, with the tendency towards extreme events. Type 2 variability seems to be linked with minimum values of this cycle. There does not seem to be a systematic correlation between Type 1 or Type 2 variability with atmospheric CO2 concentration. The different types of variability and the transitions between those types had important effects on the availability of water, and could have transformed eastern Africa’s environment considerably, which would have had important implications for the shaping of the habitat of H. sapiens and the direct ancestors of this species.

Our understanding of the impact of climate-driven environmental change on prehistoric human populations is hampered by the scarcity of continuous paleoenvironmental records in the vicinity of archaeological sites. Here we compare a continuous paleoclimatic record of the last 20 ka before present from the Chew Bahir basin, southwest Ethiopia, with the available archaeological record of human presence in the region. The correlation of this record with orbitally-driven insolation variations suggests a complex nonlinear response of the environment to climate forcing, reflected in several long-term and short-term transitions between wet and dry conditions, resulting in abrupt changes between favorable and unfavorable living conditions for humans. Correlating the archaeological record in the surrounding region of the Chew Bahir basin, presumably including montane and lake-marginal refugia for human populations, with our climate record suggests a complex interplay between humans and their environment during the last 20 ka. The result may contribute to our understanding of how a dynamic environment may have impacted the adaptation and dispersal of early humans in eastern Africa. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Episodes of environmental stability and instability may be equally important for African hominin speciation, dispersal, and cultural innovation. Three examples of a change from stable to unstable environmental conditions are presented on three different time scales: (1) the Mid Holocene (MH) wet dry transition in the Chew Bahir basin (Southern Ethiopian Rift; between 11 ka and 4 ka), (2) the MIS 5-4 transition in the Naivasha basin (Central Kenya Rift; between 160 ka and 50 ka), and (3) the Early Mid Pleistocene Transition (EMPT) in the Olorgesailie basin (Southern Kenya Rift; between 1.25 Ma and 0.4 Ma). A probabilistic age modeling technique is used to determine the timing of these transitions, taking into account possible abrupt changes in the sedimentation rate including episodes of no deposition (hiatuses). Interestingly, the stable-unstable conditions identified in the three records are always associated with an orbitally-induced decrease of insolation: the descending portion of the 800 kyr cycle during the EMPT, declining eccentricity after the 115 ka maximum at the MIS 5-4 transition, and after similar to 10 ka. This observation contributes to an evidence-based discussion of the possible mechanisms causing the switching between environmental stability and instability in Eastern Africa at three different orbital time scales (10,000 to 1,000,000 years) during the Cenozoic. This in turn may lead to great insights into the environmental changes occurring at the same time as hominin speciation, brain expansion, dispersal out of Africa, and cultural innovations and may provide key evidence to build new hypotheses regarding the causes of early human evolution. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rapid changes in environmental conditions are considered to be an important driver for human evolution, cultural and technological innovation, and expansion out of Africa. However, the nature of these environmental changes, their amplitude and correlation with steps in human evolution is the subject of current debates. Here we present a high-resolution (~3–12 yr) and well-dated (32 AMS 14C ages) lake-sediment record of the last 46 000 yr from the Chew Bahir basin in the southern Ethiopian Rift. The record was obtained from six cores along a NW–SE transect across the basin, which has been selected as the drilling location within the ICDP Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP). Multi-proxy data and the comparison between the transect coring sites provide initial insight into intra-basin dynamics and major mechanisms controlling the sedimentation of the proxies that was used to develop a basic proxy concept for Chew Bahir for the last two wet-dry cycles. The environmental response to orbitally induced sinusoidal insolation changes is usually nonlinear, as climate changes abruptly compared to changes in the forcing, or gradual but punctuated by multi-decadal intervals of drier conditions. The second major control on the environment is millennial-scale climate variability lasting ~1500 yr, similar in duration to the high-latitude Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles and Heinrich events including the Younger Dryas cold reversal at the end of the last glacial, mostly causing abrupt shifts from extreme arid to wet conditions. The duration and character of orbitally induced, high-latitude controlled, and multi-decadal climate shifts provides important constraints for the adaptation of humans to the changing environment. Therefore, Chew Bahir is a perfect site to study and understand climatic variability on different timescales.

East African paleoenvironments are highly variable, marked by extreme fluctuations in moisture availability, which has far-reaching implications for the origin, evolution and dispersal of Homo sapiens in and beyond the region. This paper presents results from a pilot core from the Chew Bahir basin in southern Ethiopia that records the climatic history of the past 45 ka, with emphasis on the African Humid Period (AHP, similar to 15-5 ka calBP). Geochemical, physical and biological indicators show that Chew Bahir responded to climatic fluctuations on millennial to centennial timescales, and to the precessional cycle, since the Last Glacial Maximum. Potassium content of the sediment appears to be a reliable proxy for aridity, showing that Chew Bahir reacted to the insolation-controlled humidity increase of the AHP with a remarkably abrupt onset and a gradual termination, framing a sharply defined arid phase (similar to 12.8-11.6 ka calBP) corresponding to the Younger Dryas chronozone. The Chew Bahir record correlates well with low- and high-latitude paleoclimate records, demonstrating that the site responded to regional and global climate changes.