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High-resolution modelling of surface ozone is an essential step in the quantification of the impacts on health and ecosystems from historic and future concentrations. It also provides a principled way in which to extend analysis beyond measurement locations. Often, such modelling uses relatively coarse-resolution chemistry transport models (CTMs), which exhibit biases when compared to measurements. EMEP4UK is a CTM that is used extensively to inform UK air quality policy, including the effects on ozone from mitigation of its precursors. Our evaluation of EMEP4UK for the years 2001–2018 finds a high bias in reproducing daily maximum 8 h average ozone (MDA8), due in part to the coarse spatial resolution. We present a machine learning downscaling methodology to downscale EMEP4UK ozone output from a 5×5 km to 1×1 km resolution using a gradient-boosted tree. By addressing the high bias present in EMEP4UK, the downscaled surface better represents the measured data, with a 128 % improvement in R2 and 37 % reduction in RMSE. Our analysis of the downscaled surface shows a decreasing trend in annual and March–August mean MDA8 ozone for all regions of the UK between 2001–2018, differing from increasing measurement trends in some regions. We find the proportion of the UK which fails the government objective to have at most 10 exceedances of 100 µg m−3 per annum is 27 % (2014–2018 average), compared to 99 % from the unadjusted EMEP4UK model. A statistically significant trend in this proportion of −2.19 % yr−1 is found from the downscaled surface only, highlighting the importance of bias correction in the assessment of policy metrics. Finally, we use the downscaling approach to examine the sensitivity of UK surface ozone to reductions in UK terrestrial NOx (i.e. NO + NO2) emissions on a 1×1 km surface. Moderate NOx emission reductions with respect to present day (20 % or 40 %) increase both average and high-level ozone concentrations in large portions of the UK, whereas larger NO

Six scenarios consisting of changes in farm-gate prices (T1 to T6) have been applied to the ERAMMP Integrated Modelling Platform (IMP) to simulate impacts on land use change, biodiversity and ecosystem services (carbon, water quality and air quality). The scenarios were based on discussions held between stakeholders in the Evidence and Scenario subgroup (Roundtable Wales and Brexit1) and Welsh Government (WG) policy officials. These discussions took place in late 2020 before the arrangements for the UK leaving the EU were agreed, therefore are based on broad assumptions around the detail of the trade agreement with the EU as well as other third countries including Australia, New Zeland and USA. It is important to note that the outputs of these discussions which were used as inputs into the ERAMMP IMP may therefore not accurately reflect the outcomes achieved within the finalised trade agreements. The T1 scenario assumes no EU trade deal and trade liberalisation, with no tariffs applied to imported products and T2 an EU trade deal with no change to the trade arrangements with third countries. These two scenarios used the changes to farm-gate prices modelled by FAPRI2. The assumptions used in the T3 to T6 scenarios were based on expert opinion from the stakeholder group, and include impacts on farm-gate prices which potentially could have resulted from different combinations of trade deals with New Zealand, Australia and USA. Scenarios which include “no EU deal” options (T1 and T4) are no longer relevant. In no way whatsoever do T1, T3, T4, T5 and T6 represent a WG position; our understanding of the nature and impact of new and emerging trade deals has evolved significantly and the WG Trade Policy Team lead in this area. The objective of this work was to gain an early understanding of how changes in farm-gate prices potentially resulting from trading relationships may influence land use and subsequently effect entry into the Sustainable Farming Scheme. We note that ma

Urban Green Infrastructure (GI) provides multiple benefits to city inhabitants and can be an important component in nature-based solutions (NBS), but the ecosystem services that underpin those benefits are inconsistently quantified in the literature. There remain substantial knowledge gaps about the level of service supported by less studied GI types, e.g. cemeteries, or less-studied ecosystem services, e.g. noise mitigation. Decision-makers and planners in cities often face conflicting or incomplete information on the effectiveness of GI, particularly on their ability to provide a suite of co-benefits. Here, we describe a feature-based typology of GI which combines elements of land cover, land use and both ecological and social function. It is consistent with user requirements on mapping, and with the needs of models which can conduct more detailed ecosystem service assessments which can guide NBS design. We provide an evidence synthesis based on published literature, which scores the ability of each GI type to deliver a suite of ecosystem services. In the multivariate analysis of the typology scores, the main axis of variation differentiates between constructed (or hybrid) GI types designed primarily for water flow management (delivering relatively few services) and more natural green GI with trees, or blue GI such as lakes and the sea, which deliver a more multi-functional set of regulating services. The most multi-functional GI on this axis also score highest for biodiversity. The second element of variation separates those GI which support very few cultural services and those which score highly in enabling physical wellbeing and social interaction and, to a lesser extent, restoring capacities. Together the typology and multi-functionality matrix provide a much needed assessment for less studied GI types, and allow planners and decision-makers to make a-priori assessments of the relative ability of different GI as part of NBS to address urban challenges.

In the last six decades, the consumption of reactive nitrogen (Nr) in the form of fertilizer in India has been growing rapidly, whilst the nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) of cropping systems has been decreasing. These trends have led to increasing environmental losses of Nr, threatening the quality of air, soils, and fresh waters, and thereby endangering climate-stability, ecosystems, and human-health. Since it has been suggested that the fertilizer consumption of India may double by 2050, there is an urgent need for scientific research to support better nitrogen management in Indian agriculture. In order to share knowledge and to develop a joint vision, experts from the UK and India came together for a conference and workshop on “Challenges and Opportunities for Agricultural Nitrogen Science in India.” The meeting concluded with three core messages: (1) Soil stewardship is essential and legumes need to be planted in rotation with cereals to increase nitrogen fixation in areas of limited Nr availability. Synthetic symbioses and plastidic nitrogen fixation are possibly disruptive technologies, but their potential and implications must be considered. (2) Genetic diversity of crops and new technologies need to be shared and exploited to reduce N losses and support productive, sustainable agriculture livelihoods. (3) The use of leaf color sensing shows great potential to reduce nitrogen fertilizer use (by 10–15%). This, together with the usage of urease inhibitors in neem-coated urea, and better management of manure, urine, and crop residues, could result in a 20–25% improvement in NUE of India by 2030.

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5, particles with a mass median aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 micrometers) in the atmosphere is associated with severe negative impacts on human health, and the gases sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and ammonia are the main PM2.5 precursors. However, their contribution to global health impacts has not yet been analyzed. Here, we show that nitrogen accounted for 39% of global PM2.5 exposure in 2013, increasing from 30% in 1990 with rising reactive nitrogen emissions and successful controls on sulfur dioxide. Nitrogen emissions to air caused an estimated 23.3 million years of life lost in 2013, corresponding to an annual welfare loss of 420 billion United States dollars for premature death. The marginal abatement cost of ammonia emission is only 10% that of nitrogen oxides emission globally, highlighting the priority for ammonia reduction.

This synthesis report is part of the deliverables of the EC funded REGREEN project and elaborates a profound baseline for further integrated research in Work Package 3, “Mapping and Modelling Ecosystem Services” in their multiple expressions for human well‐being provided by nature‐based solutions (NBS). It covers the first nine months of the project’s runtime in which we evaluate scale‐dependent data and models by exploiting existing frameworks and collating data at various scales to quantify ecosystem services (ES), spanning green and blue infrastructure in varied cultural and climatic contexts. Based on the indicator frameworks EKLIPSE and Nature4Cities, we continue to develop an integrated and lean indicator framework to capture synergies and trade‐offs from NBS for multiple ES, thus allowing for weighting and setting priorities of the demand and supply indicators and fulfil the best adapted NBS at differing spatial scales. Existing maps and models, aiming at quantifying specific ES, vary in complexity and applicability. The purpose is to evaluate available data at different scales as well as mapping characteristics and modelling in order to explore suitability and applicability for quantification of ES in the respective urban living labs (ULLs). By pulling the different disciplinary strands together and understanding each other’s research approaches, we are able to formulate the common need for data, and establish a common understanding of indicators and their related frameworks for ES, as well as illustrating the linkages to other work packages. Our most important results are a first mapping of land use and land cover in different ULLs presented in Section 5, and, and first modelling achievements exemplified in Section 6. Beyond, to deepen our common understanding of ES mapping and modelling, we developed eight fact sheets that display our products, methods, and pinpointed aims for NBS implementations in REGREEN (see Appendix). To conclude, we continue our rese

Farmscoper is a decision support tool that can be used to assess diffuse agricultural pollutant loads on a farm and quantify the impacts of farm mitigation methods on these pollutants. The farm systems within the tool can be customised to reflect management and environmental conditions representative of farming across England and Wales. The tool contains over 100 mitigation methods, including many of those in the latest Defra Mitigation Method User Guide.

Process-based vegetation models are widely used to predict local and global ecosystem dynamics and climate change impacts. Due to their complexity, they require careful parameterization and evaluation to ensure that projections are accurate and reliable. The PROFOUND Database (PROFOUND DB) provides a wide range of empirical data on European forests to calibrate and evaluate vegetation models that simulate climate impacts at the forest stand scale. A particular advantage of this database is its wide coverage of multiple data sources at different hierarchical and temporal scales, together with environmental driving data as well as the latest climate scenarios. Specifically, the PROFOUND DB provides general site descriptions, soil, climate, CO2, nitrogen deposition, tree and forest stand level, and remote sensing data for nine contrasting forest stands distributed across Europe. Moreover, for a subset of five sites, time series of carbon fluxes, atmospheric heat conduction and soil water are also available. The climate and nitrogen deposition data contain several datasets for the historic period and a wide range of future climate change scenarios following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). We also provide pre-industrial climate simulations that allow for model runs aimed at disentangling the contribution of climate change to observed forest productivity changes. The PROFOUND DB is available freely as a “SQLite” relational database or “ASCII” flat file version (at https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2020.006/; Reyer et al., 2020). The data policies of the individual contributing datasets are provided in the metadata of each data file. The PROFOUND DB can also be accessed via the ProfoundData R package (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=ProfoundData; Silveyra Gonzalez et al., 2020), which provides basic functions to explore, plot and extract the data for model set-up, calibration and evaluation.

The potential impact of Brexit on the farming sector and wider environment is just one of the many challenges facing the Welsh Government. There are a range of decision and modelling tools which can be used to explore potential outcomes and the areas at risk where the environmental regulatory floor needs to be enhanced or social transition programmes put in place. The same tools can also be used to explore a range of ‘what if’ scenarios for different land management options which could be included in new Payment for Ecosystem Service (PES) schemes or in national land management payment schemes to replace CAP. To meet this challenge in Wales, a partnership between the Welsh Government, their stakeholders and a consortium of research organisations led by the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH) was formed. This partnership, called ERAMMP, (https://erammp.wales/en) combined expert knowledge and a range of decision and modelling tools to examine potential changes in agricultural land use that might result from Brexit, and to explore potential benefits of new land management options.

Air pollution has been recognized as a threat to human health since the time of Hippocrates, ca 400 BC. Successive written accounts of air pollution occur in different countries through the following two millennia until measurements, from the eighteenth century onwards, show the growing scale of poor air quality in urban centres and close to industry, and the chemical characteristics of the gases and particulate matter. The industrial revolution accelerated both the magnitude of emissions of the primary pollutants and the geographical spread of contributing countries as highly polluted cities became the defining issue, culminating with the great smog of London in 1952. Europe and North America dominated emissions and suffered the majority of adverse effects until the latter decades of the twentieth century, by which time the transboundary issues of acid rain, forest decline and ground-level ozone became the main environmental and political air quality issues. As controls on emissions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides (SO2 and NOx) began to take effect in Europe and North America, emissions in East and South Asia grew strongly and dominated global emissions by the early years of the twenty-first century. The effects of air quality on human health had also returned to the top of the priorities by 2000 as new epidemiological evidence emerged. By this time, extensive networks of surface measurements and satellite remote sensing provided global measurements of both primary and secondary pollutants. Global emissions of SO2 and NOx peaked, respectively, in ca 1990 and 2018 and have since declined to 2020 as a result of widespread emission controls. By contrast, with a lack of actions to abate ammonia, global emissions have continued to grow.

the ERAMMP Year 1 activities and sub-reports fall under three categories: modelling; monitoring; and data and analysis.

In much of the industrialised world, policy interventions to address the challenges of wide-spread air pollution as resulting from development and economic progress in the 2nd half of the 20th century have overall led to reductions in air pollution levels and related health effects since the 1970s. While overall improvements towards reducing health effects from ambient air pollution are recorded, comprehensive and consistent assessments of the long-term impact of policy interventions are still scarce. In this paper, we conduct a model assessment over a 40 year period of air pollution in the UK. In order to correct for the short and longer term variability of meteorological factors contributing to trends in ambient concentrations of priority air pollutants (nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, fine particulate matter and ozone), we use a fixed meteorological year for all model simulations. Hence, the modelled changes in air pollutant concentrations and related health effects are solely a function of the changes in emissions since 1970. These changes in emissions are primarily driven by policy interventions, ranging from phasing out of specific fuels or substances, to regulating the use of chemicals and driving the development of cleaner, more efficient technologies. Over the 40 year period, UK attributable mortality due to exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 have declined by 56% and 44% respectively, while ozone attributable respiratory mortality increased by 17% over the same period (however, with a slight decrease by 14% between 2000 and 2010).

Report published by Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Edinburgh, UK on behalf of the International Nitrogen Management System (INMS). Freely available to download from the Official link.

Human activities have massively altered the global nitrogen (N) cycle, doubling annual production of reactive N (Nr) compounds from atmospheric dinitrogen (N2). The use of 120 Mt year−1 fertilizer N, with a global terrestrial/atmospheric N fixation of 285 Mt year−1, has provided huge benefits for global food production. However, nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) of the world food system is only ∼15%. The lost Nr creates a cascade of air and water pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, until it is eventually denitrified back to N2. India clearly illustrates a dual N challenge for food and environment, consuming 17 Mt of N fertilizer annually (14% of the global total), which has increased since 1970 at 6% year−1 approximately. Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) from combustion sources are also increasing rapidly at 6.5% year−1 currently. By comparison, population growth rate is lower (2% year−1), while ammonia (NH3) emission increase is even less (1%), pertaining to smaller changes in livestock numbers. At current rate, Indian NOx emissions will exceed NH3 emissions by 2055. India currently loses Nr worth US$10 billion year−1 as fertilizer value, while costs of Nr to health, ecosystems, and climate are estimated at US$75 (38–151) billion year−1. Only a small fraction of the Indian population consumes animal products, hence per capita Nr use and pollution is much less than in many developed countries. However, rates of meat consumption are increasing. While published projections from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization anticipate a doubling of South Asian fertilizer consumption from 2006 to 2050 (equivalent to 1.9% year−1 increase), these projections lack transparency and require reevaluation. In practice, the future nitrogen cycle for India will depend on scientific advances in agronomy, genetics and environment, and the extent to which government and society grasp the emerging opportunities for optimizing N management.

Atmospheric pollution by reactive nitrogen (N) can have profound effects on ecosystem functioning and biodiversity. Numerous mechanisms are involved, and response times vary among habitats and species. This complex picture can make it difficult to convey the benefits of controlling N pollution to policy developers and the public. In this study we evaluate pressure, midpoint, and endpoint metrics for N pollution, considering those currently in use and proposing some improved metrics. Pressure metrics that use the concept of a critical load (CL) are useful, and we propose a new integrated measure of cumulative exposure above the CL that allows for different response times in different habitats. Biodiversity endpoint metrics depend greatly on societal values and priorities and so are inevitably somewhat subjective. Species richness is readily understood, but biodiversity metrics based on habitat suitability for particular taxa may better reflect the priorities of nature conservation specialists. Midpoint metrics indicate progress towards desired endpoints – the most promising are those based on empirical evidence. Moss tissue N enrichment is responsive to lower N deposition rates, and we propose a new Moss Enrichment Index (MEI) based on species-specific ranges of tissue N content. At higher N deposition rates, mineral N leaching is an appropriate midpoint indicator. Biogeochemical models can also be used to derive midpoint metrics which illustrate the large variation in potential response times among ecosystem components. Metrics have an important role in encouraging progress towards reducing pollution, and need to be chosen accordingly.

Atmospheric pollution by reactive nitrogen (N) can have profound effects on ecosystem functioning and biodiversity. Numerous mechanisms are involved, and response times vary among habitats and species. This complex picture can make it difficult to convey the benefits of controlling N pollution to policy developers and the public. In this study we evaluate pressure, midpoint, and endpoint metrics for N pollution, considering those currently in use and proposing some improved metrics. Pressure metrics that use the concept of a critical load (CL) are useful, and we propose a new integrated measure of cumulative exposure above the CL that allows for different response times in different habitats. Biodiversity endpoint metrics depend greatly on societal values and priorities and so are inevitably somewhat subjective. Species richness is readily understood, but biodiversity metrics based on habitat suitability for particular taxa may better reflect the priorities of nature conservation specialists. Midpoint metrics indicate progress towards desired endpoints - the most promising are those based on empirical evidence. Moss tissue N enrichment is responsive to lower N deposition rates, and we propose a new Moss Enrichment Index (MEI) based on species-specific ranges of tissue N content. At higher N deposition rates, mineral N leaching is an appropriate midpoint indicator. Biogeochemical models can also be used to derive midpoint metrics which illustrate the large variation in potential response times among ecosystem components. Metrics have an important role in encouraging progress towards reducing pollution, and need to be chosen accordingly.

A period of elevated surface concentrations of airborne particulate matter (PM) in the UK in spring 2014 was widely associated in the UK media with a Saharan dust plume. This might have led to over-emphasis on a natural phenomenon and consequently to a missed opportunity to inform the public and provide robust evidence for policy-makers about the observed characteristics and causes of this pollution event. In this work, the EMEP4UK regional atmospheric chemistry transport model (ACTM) was used in conjunction with speciated PM measurements to investigate the sources and long-range transport (including vertical) processes contributing to the chemical components of the elevated surface PM. It is shown that the elevated PM during this period was mainly driven by ammonium nitrate, much of which was derived from emissions outside the UK. In the early part of the episode, Saharan dust remained aloft above the UK; we show that a significant contribution of Saharan dust at surface level was restricted only to the latter part of the elevated PM period and to a relatively small geographic area in the southern part of the UK. The analyses presented in this paper illustrate the capability of advanced ACTMs, corroborated with chemically-speciated measurements, to identify the underlying causes of complex PM air pollution episodes. Specifically, the analyses highlight the substantial contribution of secondary inorganic ammonium nitrate PM, with agricultural ammonia emissions in continental Europe presenting a major driver. The findings suggest that more emphasis on reducing emissions in Europe would have marked benefits in reducing episodic PM2.5 concentrations in the UK.

Atmospheric pollution by reactive nitrogen (N) can have profound effects on ecosystem functioning and biodiversity. Numerous mechanisms are involved, and response times vary among habitats and species. This complex picture can make it difficult to convey the benefits of controlling N pollution to policy developers and the public. In this study we evaluate pressure, midpoint, and endpoint metrics for N pollution, considering those currently in use and proposing some improved metrics. Pressure metrics that use the concept of a critical load (CL) are useful, and we propose a new integrated measure of cumulative exposure above the CL that allows for different response times in different habitats. Biodiversity endpoint metrics depend greatly on societal values and priorities and so are inevitably somewhat subjective. Species richness is readily understood, but biodiversity metrics based on habitat suitability for particular taxa may better reflect the priorities of nature conservation specialists. Midpoint metrics indicate progress towards desired endpoints - the most promising are those based on empirical evidence. Moss tissue N enrichment is responsive to lower N deposition rates, and we propose a new Moss Enrichment Index (MEI) based on species-specific ranges of tissue N content. At higher N deposition rates, mineral N leaching is an appropriate midpoint indicator. Biogeochemical models can also be used to derive midpoint metrics which illustrate the large variation in potential response times among ecosystem components. Metrics have an important role in encouraging progress towards reducing pollution, and need to be chosen accordingly.