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Historically, Sweden has reported several impacts on transformers and transmission lines related to geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) that develop during strong space weather events. GICs are driven by the geoelectric field (E), and their intensity depends on various factors, including the lithology conductivity and the rate of change of the Earth’s magnetic field. The purpose of this study is to perform an extreme value (EV) analysis of the E magnitude at six different latitudes in Sweden and to express the maximum |E| that might be observed in 10, 50, and 100 years. We analyzed 10-s E data in Sweden, obtained from a 1-D model. This model incorporates 10-s geomagnetic measurements from the IMAGE network and the vertical Earth’s ground electrical conductivity in Sweden, extracted from a 3-D conductance map for the Fennoscandian region. Extreme E events tend to occur in clusters around geomagnetic disturbances (substorms and geomagnetic storms). Therefore, we applied two different methods to decluster the data. After declustering, Generalized Pareto (GP) distributions were fitted to the remaining extreme events that exceeded the 99.5th percentile. The EV analysis indicates that the shape parameter of the GP distribution depends on latitude. This implies that at higher geographic latitudes (64.52–68.02°N) the distribution decreases faster toward zero than at lower latitudes (58.26–62.25°N). As a result the expected maximum |E| in 100 years in central Sweden ranges between 4.0 and 8.5 V/km, while at higher latitudes, it ranges between 2.0 and 2.5 V/km, similar to the modeled geoelectric field values during the Halloween event in October 2003. In particular, around 60.50°N the distribution of extreme events exhibits the heaviest tail. When we additionally consider the effect of conductivity, the region of west Sweden around 60.50°N exhibits the largest expected maximum in 100 years with a value around 8.5 V/km. This is three times larger than the maximum modeled |E| at that latitude.

A variety of magnetosphere‐ionosphere current systems and waves have been linked to geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) and geomagnetically induced currents (GIC). However, since many location‐specific factors control GMD and GIC intensity, it is often unclear what mechanisms generate the largest GMD and GIC in different locations. We address this challenge through analysis of multi‐satellite measurements and globally distributed magnetometer and GIC measurements. We find embedded within the magnetic cloud of the 23–24 April 2023 coronal mass ejection (CME) storm there was a global scale density pulse lasting for 10–20 min with compression ratio of ∼10 ${\sim} 10$. It caused substantial dayside displacements of the bow shock and magnetopause, changes of 6RE $6{R}_{E}$ and 1.3−2RE $1.3-2{R}_{E}$, respectively, which in turn caused large amplitude GMD in the magnetosphere and on the ground across a wide local time range. At the time this global GMD was observed, GIC measured in New Zealand, Finland, Canada, and the United States were observed. The GIC were comparable (within factors of 2–2.5) to the largest ever recorded during ≥ ${\ge} $14 year monitoring intervals in New Zealand and Finland and represented ∼ ${\sim} $2‐year maxima in the United States during a period with several Kp≥ ${\ge} $7 geomagnetic storms. Additionally, the GIC measurements in the USA and other mid‐latitude locations exhibited wave‐like fluctuations with 1–2 min period. This work suggests that large density pulses in CME should be considered an important driver of large amplitude, global GMD and among the largest GIC at mid‐latitude locations, and that sampling intervals ≤10s ${\le} 10s$ are required to capture these GMD/GIC. Plain Language Summary: We explore how disturbances in the Earth's magnetic field, known as geomagnetic disturbances (GMD), and the resulting geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) in power systems are influenced by different electrical currents and waves in near‐Earth space. One challenge is the lack of easily accessible data on GIC over long periods, which makes it hard to figure out what factors are most responsible for changes in GIC in different places. Also, there is limited research combining data from satellites with data collected on the ground to figure out exactly how GMD and GIC are generated. To tackle these issues, we looked at data collected by multiple satellites in different parts of near‐Earth space along with data from ground magnetometers and GIC measurements distributed around the world. Our results suggest that density pulses from coronal mass ejections, a particular type of structure in the solar wind, are important in causing significant disturbances in the Earth's magnetic field globally and contribute to some of the largest GIC seen in the mid‐latitude region of United States. We emphasize the importance of taking measurements with high sampling rates (≤10s) $(\le 10s)$ to accurately capture these disturbances and the resulting GIC. Key Points: A density pulse embedded in a coronal mass ejection drives global geomagnetic disturbances (GMD) and geomagnetically induced currents (GIC)Measured GIC's comparable to or exceed reference values in several regions, including 58.1 A in the mid‐latitude region of United StatesLarge‐amplitude density pulses are an important driver of GIC and GMD for mid‐latitude regions with large populations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The geoelectric field driving geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) has complex spatial variations. It follows that different patterns of the field vectors in a given area having the same regional mean can produce very different GIC. In this study, we consider a few power grid models and calculate GIC due to a modelled geoelectric field with a regional mean magnitude of 1 V/km. Altogether 8035 snapshots of the electric field are included. We also assume two different ground conductivity models, of which the simpler one consists of two layers across the whole region, and another model has four different two-layer blocks. As a measure of GIC, we use the sum of currents at all substations of the power grid. We also consider the distribution of GIC at a single site. For a given grid, differences between the two ground conductivity models are small. When comparing different power grid models, the sum of GIC varies relatively more for a grid with a small number of substations and transmission lines. When the area and the number of substations increase, the relative difference between the smallest and largest GIC sum decreases. In all cases, assuming a spatially uniform electric field leads to a reasonable estimation of the GIC magnitudes, but it does not produce the largest GIC sum. For a single substation, there is a large variety of GIC values due to different electric field configurations.

Empirical models are developed to provide 10–30-min forecasts of the magnitude of the time derivative of local horizontal ground geomagnetic field (|dBh/dt|) over Europe. The models are driven by ACE solar wind data. A major part of the work has been devoted to the search and selection of datasets to support the model development. To simplify the problem, but at the same time capture sudden changes, 30-min maximum values of |dBh/dt| are forecast with a cadence of 1 min. Models are tested both with and without the use of ACE SWEPAM plasma data. It is shown that the models generally capture sudden increases in |dBh/dt| that are associated with sudden impulses (SI). The SI is the dominant disturbance source for geomagnetic latitudes below 50° N and with minor contribution from substorms. However, at occasions, large disturbances can be seen associated with geomagnetic pulsations. For higher latitudes longer lasting disturbances, associated with substorms, are generally also captured. It is also shown that the models using only solar wind magnetic field as input perform in most cases equally well as models with plasma data. The models have been verified using different approaches including the extremal dependence index which is suitable for rare events.

Previous studies have demonstrated a close relationship between the time derivative of the horizontal geomagnetic field vector (dH/dt) and geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) at a nearby location in a power grid. Similarly, a high correlation exists between GIC and the local horizontal geoelectric field (E), typically modelled from a measured magnetic field. Considering GIC forecasting, it is not feasible to assume that detailed prediction of time series will be possible. Instead, other measures summarising the activity level over a given period are preferable. In this paper, we consider the 30-min maximum of dH/dt or E as a local activity indicator (|dH/dt|30 or |E|30). Concerning GIC, we use the sum of currents through the neutral leads at substations and apply its 30-min maximum as a regional activity measure (GIC30). We show that |dH/dt|30 at a single point yields a proxy for GIC activity in a larger region. A practical consequence is that if |dH/dt|30 can be predicted at some point then it is also possible to assess the expected GIC level in the surrounding area. As is also demonstrated, |E|30 and GIC30 depend linearly on |dH/dt|30, so there is no saturation with increasing geomagnetic activity contrary to often used activity indices.

Substorms are a commonly occurring but insufficiently understood form of dynamics in the coupled magnetosphere–ionosphere system, associated with space weather disturbances and auroras. We have used principal component analysis (PCA) to characterize the spatiotemporal development of ionospheric equivalent currents as observed by the International Monitor for Auroral Geomagnetic Effects (IMAGE) magnetometers during 28 substorm onsets identified by. Auroral observations were provided by all-sky cameras. We found that the equivalent currents can typically be described by three components: a channel of poleward equivalent current (wedgelet), a westward electrojet (WEJ) associated with an auroral arc, and a vortex. The WEJ and vortex are located at the equatorward end of the channel, which has been associated with bursty bulk flows (BBFs) by previous studies. Depending on its polarity, the vortex either indents the WEJ and arc equatorward or bulges the WEJ poleward while winding the arc into an auroral spiral. In addition, there may be a background current system associated with the large-scale convection. The dynamics of the WEJ, vortex, and channel can describe up to 95 % of the variance of the time derivative of the equivalent currents during the examined 20 min interval. Rapid geomagnetic variations at the substorm onset location, which can drive geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in technological conductor networks, are mainly associated with the oscillations of the WEJ, which may be driven by oscillations of the transition region between dipolar and tail-like field lines in the magnetotail due to the BBF impact. The results contribute to the understanding of substorm physics and to the understanding of processes that drive intense GICs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We have derived comprehensive statistics of geomagnetic activity for assessing the occurrence of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) in the Norwegian high-voltage power grid. The statistical study is based on geomagnetic recordings in 1994–2011 from which the geoelectric field can be modelled and applied to a DC description of the power grid to estimate GIC. The largest GIC up to a few 100 A in the Norwegian grid occur most likely in its southern parts. This follows primarily from the structure of the grid favouring large GIC in the south. The magnetic field has its most rapid variations on the average in the north, but during extreme geomagnetic storms they reach comparable values in the south too. The ground conductivity has also smaller values in the south, which further increases the electric field there. Additionally to results in 1994–2011, we performed a preliminary estimation of a once per 100 year event for geoelectric field by extrapolating the statistics. We found that the largest geoelectric field value would be twice the maximum in 1994–2011. Such value was actually reached on 13–14 July 1982.

We analyse geomagnetic recordings at four subauroral and midlatitude Russian observatories in 1850–1862. The data consist of spot readings made once in hour of the north and east components of the magnetic field. We use the hourly change of the horizontal field vector as the measure of activity. We compare these values to data from modern observatories at corresponding magnetic latitudes (Nurmijärvi, Finland, magnetic latitude ~57 N; Tartu, Estonia, ~54.5 N; Dourbes, Belgium, ~46 N) by reducing their data to the 1-h format. The largest variations at the Russian observatories occurred during the Carrington storm in September 1859 and they reached about 1000 nT/h, which was the instrumental off-scale limit. When the time stamp for the spot readings happens to be optimal, the top variation in the Nurmijärvi data is about 3700 nT/h (July 1982), and at Tartu the maximum is about 1600 nT/h (November 2004). At a midlatitude site Nertchinsk in Russia (magnetic latitude ~45 N), the variation during the Carrington storm was at the off-scale limit, and exceeded the value observed at Dourbes during the Halloween storm in October 2003. At Nertchinsk, the Carrington event was at least four times larger than any other storm in 1850–1862. Despite the limitations of the old recordings and in using only hourly spot readings, the Carrington storm was definitely a very large event at midlatitudes. At higher latitudes, it remains somewhat unclear whether it exceeds the largest modern storms, especially the one in July 1982.

Statistics of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) in the European high-voltage power grids based on 1-min geomagnetic recordings in 1996–2008 and on 1-D models of the ground conductivity have been derived in the EURISGIC project (European Risk from Geomagnetically Induced Currents). The simplified yet realistic power grid model indicates that large GIC can occur anywhere in Europe. However, geomagnetic variations are clearly larger in North Europe, so it is the likely region of significant GIC events. Additionally, there are areas in the North with especially low ground conductivities, which further tend to increase GIC. The largest modelled GIC values at single substations in 1996–2008 are about 400 A in the Nordic Countries, about 100 A in the British Isles, about 80 A in the Baltic Countries, and less than 50 A in Central and South Europe. The largest GIC event in the period studied is the Halloween storm on 29–30 October 2003, and the next largest ones occurred on 15 July 2000 and 9 November 2004.

This paper aims at providing an overview of latest advances in space weather modeling in an operational environment in Europe, including both the introduction of new models and improvements to existing codes and algorithms that address the broad range of space weather’s prediction requirements from the Sun to the Earth. For each case, we consider the model’s input data, the output parameters, products or services, its operational status, and whether it is supported by validation results, in order to build a solid basis for future developments. This work is the output of the Sub Group 1.3 “Improvement of operational models” of the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action ES0803 “Developing Space Weather Products and services in Europe” and therefore this review focuses on the progress achieved by European research teams involved in the action.

The harnessing of the electric power associated with space weather storms is discussed. A simple system based on a large-scale coil located at high latitudes is devised and the power output of the system for a sample storm is calculated. It is shown that independently of the resistances of the conductors used in the coil and the number of turns in the system the maximum output of the system is restricted to the 1-10 MW range, which is comparable to the maximum output of a single large wind turbine. [DOI: 10.1119/1.3119172]

We have examined the most intense external (magnetospheric and ionospheric) and internal (induced) | d H /dt | (amplitude of the 10 s time derivative of the horizontal geomagnetic field) events observed by the high-latitude International Monitor for Auroral Geomagnetic Effects (IMAGE) magnetometers between 1994 and 2018. While the most intense external | d H /dt | events at adjacent stations typically occurred simultaneously, the most intense internal (and total) | d H /dt | events were more scattered in time, most likely due to the complexity of induction in the conducting ground. The most intense external | d H /dt | events occurred during geomagnetic storms, among which the Halloween storm in Oct 2003 featured prominently, and drove intense geomagnetically induced currents (GIC). Events in the prenoon local time sector were associated with sudden commencements (SC) and pulsations, and the most intense | d H /dt | values were driven by abrupt changes in the eastward electrojet due to solar wind dynamic pressure increase or decrease. Events in the premidnight and dawn local time sectors were associated with substorm activity, and the most intense | d H /dt | values were driven by abrupt changes in the westward electrojet, such as weakening and poleward retreat (premidnight) or undulation (dawn). Despite being associated with various event types and occurring at different local time sectors, there were common features among the drivers of most intense external | d H /dt | values: pre-existing intense ionospheric currents (SC events were an exception) that were abruptly modified by sudden changes in the magnetospheric magnetic field configuration. While proper description of the fast changes during SC events appears to require 1 s data, pulsations and substorms may be sufficiently described by 10 s | d H /dt |. 1 min data, however, significantly underestimates the | d H /dt | peaks. Our results contribute towards the ultimate goal of reliable forecasts of d H /dt and GIC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The EURISGIC project (European Risk from Geomagnetically Induced Currents) aims at deriving statistics of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) in the European high-voltage power grids. Such a continent-wide system of more than 1500 substations and transmission lines requires updates of the previous modelling, which has dealt with national grids in fairly small geographic areas. We present here how GIC modelling can be conveniently performed on a spherical surface with minor changes in the previous technique. We derive the exact formulation to calculate geovoltages on the surface of a sphere and show its practical approximation in a fast vectorised form. Using the model of the old Finnish power grid and a much larger prototype model of European high-voltage power grids, we validate the new technique by comparing it to the old one. We also compare model results to measured data in the following cases: geoelectric field at the Nagycenk observatory, Hungary; GIC at a Russian transformer; GIC along the Finnish natural gas pipeline. In all cases, the new method works reasonably well.