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This paper summarizes the results of the seminar “Geopolitical Security of Russia: Remarks on the Problem Statement”, held on August 26, 2022, at the Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University, Kaliningrad. During the seminar, the Institute of Geopolitical and Regional Studies of the university announced an initiative to devise a system of monitoring the geopolitical (regional) security of Russia. The debate centred around the development of a conceptual framework and a geopolitical security model as a prerequisite for the system. The discussion also covered other relevant issues, including the definition of geopolitical security and geopolitical space as well as the types of geopolitical threats and vulnerabilities. Another topic on the agenda was the analysis of theoretical approaches applicable to monitoring the geopolitical security in Russia. A constructivist approach based on discursive practices was viewed as the most promising for tracking changes in geopolitical threats. In this work, the emphasis should be placed on regional issues, i. e. the situation in particular regions. Other promising avenues for further research are the operationalization of relevant concepts and the development of a set of indicators of geopolitical threats and vulnerabilities, which Russia has already faced and may face in the future.

The ongoing technological development leads to the emergence of a new value-creation paradigm that calls for changes and structural transformations in economic systems at different levels. Structural transformations are prompted by growing economic complexity. In this context, the selection of industrial strategies and the validation of key regional industrial policies is of paramount importance. Economic complexity (EC) analysis is a new effective tool to address the issue. Its application at a subnational level is, however, limited by methodological problems. To analyse economic complexity at a subnational level, a basic methodology and special software were developed within this study. The object of the research is the exclave Kaliningrad region, whose location makes it possible to capture accurate and comprehensive data on international and interregional trade. Based on the EC analysis theory and practice, the study involved the development of methods, algorithms, and software to form a source database and measure economic complexity. The findings may guide the use of EC analyses in regional policies. The article suggests activities for sequential upgrading of the industry in the Kaliningrad region. These activities will facilitate the development of the existing and new capabilities, improve the business environment, and increase the complexity of products, productions, and industries.

The economic security of Russia’s regions has been the focus of numerous studies. Significant contributions have been made to relevant methodological approaches and measurement tools. However, economic security has been little studied in the context of border regions. In this article, we address the methodological problems of employing existing methods and models for measuring the economic security of border regions. We pay special attention to the development of an evaluation algorithm incorporating the border regions’ characteristics, the identification of groups (classes), a set of universal, specific, and special indicators as well as the impact of protective measures on economic security. To justify our proposals, we analyse the economic security of the Kaliningrad region; it is a study based on an evaluation of protective measures in the regional agricultural industry and of the effect of different factors on the generation of value added in the sector. We emphasise the need to take into account regional conditions when assessing economic security and to introduce economic and mathematical calculations into the relevant measurement algorithm at its different stages. We use our findings in providing a rationale for the central principles and procedures for creating a comprehensive model of the economic security of Russia’s western border regions.

This article addresses the task of creating a regional Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) in the Kaliningrad region. Analyzing the behavior of economic systems of national and sub-national levels in the changing environment is one of the main objectives of macroeconomic research. Matrices are used in examining the flow of financial resources, which makes it possible to conduct a comprehensive analysis of commodity and cash flows at the regional level. The study identifies key data sources for matrix development and presents its main results: the data sources for the accounts development and filling the social accounting matrix are identified, regional accounts consolidated, the structure of regional matrix devised, and the multiplier of the regional social accounting matrix calculated. An important aspect of this approach is the set target, which determines the composition of matrix accounts representing different aspects of regional performance. The calculated multiplier suggests the possibility of modelling of a socioeconomic system for the region using a social accounting matrix. The regional modelling approach ensures the matrix compliance with the methodological requirements of the national system

In this article the authors detail the methodology of regional development forecasting with the balance method. They provide with an overview and assessment of the existing models and systems, and their use for the purposes of public administration at the regional level. The article underlines the need to develop a balance approach models for specific territorial conditions. In particular, the authors identify the possibilities of studying the connections between the proportions of material and cash flows within the regional system, and reconciling the needs of a regional economy with the production and resource potentials. The long-term sustainability balance model – a simulation of event-based forecasting – has been developed for the Russian exclave. The authors provide a general description of the balance model, its elements and simulation algorithm. The results of calculations using the balance model for forecasting regional development are provided for three alternative scenarios for the Kaliningrad region for the period until 2018.

In this article the authors detail the methodology of regional development forecasting with the balance method. They provide with an overview and assessment of the existing models and systems, and their use for the purposes of public administration at the regional level. The article underlines the need to develop a balance approach models for specific territorial conditions. In particular, the authors identify the possibilities of studying the connections between the proportions of material and cash flows within the regional system, and reconciling the needs of a regional economy with the production and resource potentials. The long-term sustainability balance model – a simulation of event-based forecasting – has been developed for the Russian exclave. The authors provide a general description of the balance model, its elements and simulation algorithm. The results of calculations using the balance model for forecasting regional development are provided for three alternative scenarios for the Kaliningrad region for the period until 2018.

Regardless of the geography of regions, management at the regional level, both in Russia and the Baltic Sea countries, faces many challenges. Hence, it is necessary to search for new effective economic management tools, since traditional approaches and modeling practices at the regional level are not suitable for either analysing various types of impact on regional economy (production, market (product), sector, region), or assessment of their consequences and identification of the necessary measures in any given economic conditions. The authors construct sectoral models to assess regulatory impacts on regional economic performance. Assessments of regulatory impacts on product value chains, economic sectors, and regions as a whole show good repeatability, which makes it possible to provide a rationale for economic decision-making. The authors propose new sectoral models using the Kaliningrad region as an example. The models are used in a comprehensive analysis of conditions for a GRP growth resulting from an increase in sectoral contributions. To this end, the study uses the well-known approaches of simulation modelling, as well as qualitative and quantitative methods in combination with economic-mathematical optimisation models. The article presents a pilot model of regulatory impacts for selected sectors of the Kaliningrad economy. The developed and tested models suggest that a rationale for economic decision-making and consequent actions should be based on the assessment of the impact of different groups of external, internal, and independent factors on value chains, based on the criterion of optimal factor income. In conclusion, the authors offer recommendations for using the proposed models in business, public administration and regional economic modeling.