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This work suggests several methods of uncertainty treatment in multiscale modelling and describes their application to a system of coupled turbulent transport simulations of a tokamak plasma. We propose a method to quantify the usually aleatoric uncertainty of a system in a quasi-stationary state, estimating the mean values and their errors for quantities of interest, which is average heat fluxes in the case of turbulence simulations. The method defines the stationarity of the system and suggests a way to balance the computational cost of simulation and the accuracy of estimation. This allows, contrary to many approaches, to incorporate aleatoric uncertainties in the analysis of the model and to have a quantifiable decision for simulation runtime. Furthermore, the paper describes methods for quantifying the epistemic uncertainty of a model and the results of such a procedure for turbulence simulations, identifying the model's sensitivity to particular input parameters and sensitivity to uncertainties in total. Finally, we introduce a surrogate model approach based on Gaussian Process Regression and present a preliminary result of training and analysing the performance of such a model based on turbulence simulation data. Such an approach shows a potential to significantly decrease the computational cost of the uncertainty propagation for the given model, making it feasible on current HPC systems.

Using multiple ion beam analysis measurements, or techniques, combined with self-consistent data processing, generally allows extracting more (or more accurate) information from the measurements than processing separately data from single measurements. Solving ambiguities, improving the final depth resolution, defining constraints and extending applicability are the main strengths of the data-fusion approach. It basically consists in formulating a multi-objective minimization problem that can be tackled by the adoption of the weighted-sum method. A simulation study is reported in order to evaluate the systematic error inserted in the analysis by the choice of a specific objective function, or even by the weights or normalization adopted in the weighted-sum method. We demonstrate that the bias of the analyzed objective functions asymptotically converges to the true value for better statistics. We also demonstrate that the joint analysis inherits the accuracy of the most accurate measurement, establishing a rank of information content, where some combinations of measurements are more valuable than others, i.e. when processed together they provide more information by means of a better constraint for the multi-objective optimization., Comment: 9 pages and 8 figures

Ion Beam Analysis (IBA) comprises a set of analytical techniques suited for material analysis, many of which are rather closely related. Self-consistent analysis of several IBA techniques takes advantage of this close relationship to combine different Ion Beam measurements in a unique model to obtain an improved characterization of the sample. This approach provides a powerful tool to obtain an unequivocal and reliable model of the sample, increasing confidence and reducing ambiguities. Taking advantage of the recognized reliability and quality of the simulations provided by SIMNRA, we developed a multi-process program for a self-consistent analysis based on SIMNRA calculations. MultiSIMNRA uses computational algorithms to minimize an objective function running multiple instances of SIMNRA. With four different optimization algorithms, the code can handle sample and setup parameters (including correlations and constraints), to find the set of parameters that best fits simultaneously all experimental data., Comment: 27 pages, 5 figures, research paper

We present an approach to construct appropriate and efficient emulators for Hamiltonian flow maps. Intended future applications are long-term tracing of fast charged particles in accelerators and magnetic plasma confinement configurations. The method is based on multi-output Gaussian process regression on scattered training data. To obtain long-term stability the symplectic property is enforced via the choice of the matrix-valued covariance function. Based on earlier work on spline interpolation we observe derivatives of the generating function of a canonical transformation. A product kernel produces an accurate implicit method, whereas a sum kernel results in a fast explicit method from this approach. Both correspond to a symplectic Euler method in terms of numerical integration. These methods are applied to the pendulum and the H\'enon-Heiles system and results compared to an symmetric regression with orthogonal polynomials. In the limit of small mapping times, the Hamiltonian function can be identified with a part of the generating function and thereby learned from observed time-series data of the system's evolution. Besides comparable performance of implicit kernel and spectral regression for symplectic maps, we demonstrate a substantial increase in performance for learning the Hamiltonian function compared to existing approaches., Comment: 24 pages, 9 figures