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Human activities have had a significant impact on Earth's systems and processes, leading to a transition of Earth's state from the relatively stable Holocene epoch to the Anthropocene. The planetary boundary framework characterizes major risks of destabilization, particularly in the core dimensions of climate and biosphere change. Land system change, including deforestation and urbanization, alters ecosystems and impacts the water and energy cycle between the land surface and atmosphere, while climate change can disrupt the balance of ecosystems and impact vegetation composition and soil carbon pools. These drivers also interact with each other, further exacerbating their impacts. Earth system models have been used recently to illustrate the risks and interacting effects of transgressing selected planetary boundaries, but a detailed analysis is still missing. Here, we study the impacts of long-term transgressions of the climate and land system change boundaries on the Earth system using an Earth system model with an incorporated detailed dynamic vegetation model. In our centennial-scale simulation analysis, we find that transgressing the land system change boundary results in increases in global temperatures and aridity. Furthermore, this transgression is associated with a substantial loss of vegetation carbon, exceeding 200 Pg C, in contrast to conditions considered safe. Concurrently, the influence of climate change becomes evident as temperatures surge by 2.7–3.1 °C depending on the region. Notably, carbon dynamics are most profoundly affected within the large carbon reservoirs of the boreal permafrost areas, where carbon emissions peak at 150 Pg C. While a restoration scenario to reduce human pressure to meet the planetary boundaries of climate change and land system change proves beneficial for carbon pools and global mean temperature, a transgression of these boundaries could lead to profoundly negative effects on the Earth system and the terrestrial biosphere. Our results suggest that respecting both boundaries is essential for safeguarding Holocene-like planetary conditions that characterize a resilient Earth system and are in accordance with the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.

Forage offtake, leaf biomass and soil organic carbon storage are important ecosystem services of permanent grasslands, which are determined by climatic conditions, management and functional diversity. However, functional diversity is not independent of climate and management, and it is important to understand the role of functional diversity and these dependencies for ecosystem services of permanent grasslands, since functional diversity may play a key role in mediating impacts of changing conditions. Large-scale ecosystem models are used to assess ecosystem functions within a consistent framework for multiple climate and management scenarios. However, large-scale models of permanent grasslands rarely consider functional diversity. We implemented a representation of functional diversity based on the competitor, stress-tolerator and ruderal (CSR) theory and the global spectrum of plant form and function into the Lund Potsdam Jena managed Land (LPJmL) dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) forming LPJmL-CSR. Using a Bayesian calibration method, we parameterised new plant functional types (PFTs) and used these to assess forage offtake, leaf biomass, soil organic carbon storage and community composition of three permanent grassland sites. These are a temperate grassland and a hot and a cold steppe for which we simulated several management scenarios with different defoliation intensities and resource limitations. LPJmL-CSR captured the grassland dynamics well under observed conditions and showed improved results for forage offtake, leaf biomass and/or soil organic carbon (SOC) compared to the original LPJmL 5 version at the three grassland sites. Furthermore, LPJmL-CSR was able to reproduce the trade-offs associated with the global spectrum of plant form and function, and similar strategies emerged independent of the site-specific conditions (e.g. the C and R PFTs were more resource exploitative than the S PFT). Under different resource limitations, we observed a shift in the community composition. At the hot steppe, for example, irrigation led to a more balanced community composition with similar C, S and R PFT shares of aboveground biomass. Our results show that LPJmL-CSR allows for explicit analysis of the adaptation of grassland vegetation to changing conditions while explicitly considering functional diversity. The implemented mechanisms and trade-offs are universally applicable, paving the way for large-scale application. Applying LPJmL-CSR for different climate change and functional diversity scenarios may generate a range of future grassland productivities.

Introduction Suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STB) are a serious public health problem. Suicide prevention programs have been established over the years, but many people who are suicidal do not seek treatment, and when they do, they end up in low-threshold sectors such as the Emergency Department in general hospitals. Previous studies about STB at the ED are mostly narrative, rather than a date-driven approach and limited in sample size . Objectives This study describes the prevalence and evolution over time of suicidal ideation (SI) and suicidal attempts (SA) in terms of sociodemographic, clinical and service use variables of the psychiatric patient referred to the Emergency Department of the University Hospital Gasthuisberg (Leuven, Belgium) over a 20 year period. Methods During a 20 year period (2002-2022), all patients with a psychiatric referral to the Psychiatric Emergency Department (PED) of the University Hospital Gasthuisberg (Leuven) were included (N˜18.000). We use descriptive statistics to summarize the data set, focusing on STB in terms of sociodemographic, clinical and service use variables. Results Around 1/10 patients presents with SA; another 1/5 with SI. Despite several reforms, SI and SA have remained relatively stable over the years. Notably, there is a higher prevalence of referrals for females in both SI and SA compared to males. However, there has been a notable increase in male SA cases over time. In the age group 36-49, both sexes exhibit the highest percentages of SI and SA cases, with exception for women in SI, where the age category 18-25 has the most referrals. Approximately one-third of male patients referred with STB have never accessed outpatient care, underscoring a critical gap in mental health services for this demographic. Conclusions Despite several reforms in mental health care, the PED remains a major entry point into mental healthcare for large proportions of STB patients. Disclosure of Interest None Declared

The increasing impacts of climate change require strategies for climate adaptation. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are one type of multi-sectorial impact model with which the effects of multiple interacting processes in the terrestrial biosphere under climate change can be studied. The complexity of DGVMs is increasing as more and more processes, especially for plant physiology, are implemented. Therefore, there is a growing demand for increasing the computational performance of the underlying algorithms as well as ensuring their numerical accuracy. One way to approach this issue is to analyse the routines which have the potential for improved computational efficiency and/or increased accuracy when applying sophisticated mathematical methods. In this paper, the Farquhar–Collatz photosynthesis model under water stress as implemented in the Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land DGVM (4.0.002) was examined. We additionally tested the uncertainty of most important parameter of photosynthesis as an additional approach to improve model quality. We found that the numerical solution of a nonlinear equation, so far solved with the bisection method, could be significantly improved by using Newton's method instead. The latter requires the computation of the derivative of the underlying function which is presented. Model simulations show a significantly lower number of iterations to solve the equation numerically and an overall run time reduction of the model of about 16 % depending on the chosen accuracy. Increasing the parameters θ and αC3 by 10 %, respectively, while keeping all other parameters at their original value, increased global gross primary production (GPP) by 2.384 and 9.542 GtC yr−1, respectively. The Farquhar–Collatz photosynthesis model forms the core component in many DGVMs and land surface models. An update in the numerical solution of the nonlinear equation in connection with adjusting globally important parameters to best known values can therefore be applied to similar photosynthesis models. Furthermore, this exercise can serve as an example for improving computationally costly routines while improving their mathematical accuracy.

Land management practices can reduce the environmental impact of agricultural land use and production, improve productivity, and transform cropland into carbon sinks. In our study we assessed the biophysical and biogeochemical impacts and the potential contribution of cover crop practices to sustainable land use. We applied the process-based, global dynamic vegetation model LPJmL (Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land) V. 5.0-tillage-cc with a modified representation of cover crops to simulate the growth of grasses on cropland in periods between two consecutive main crops' growing seasons for near-past climate and land use conditions. We quantified simulated responses of agroecosystem components to cover crop cultivation in comparison to bare-soil fallowing practices on global cropland for a period of 50 years. For cover crops with tillage, we obtained annual global median soil carbon sequestration rates of 0.52 and 0.48 t C ha−1 yr−1 for the first and last decades of the entire simulation period, respectively. We found that cover crops with tillage reduced annual nitrogen leaching rates from cropland soils by medians of 39 % and 54 % but also the productivity of the following main crop by an average of 1.6 % and 2 % for the 2 analyzed decades. The largest reductions in productivity were found for rice and modestly lowered ones for maize and wheat, whereas the soybean yield revealed an almost homogenously positive response to cover crop practices replacing bare-soil fallow periods. The obtained simulation results of cover crop with tillage practices exhibit a good ability of the model version to reproduce observed effects reported in other studies. Further, the results suggest that having no tillage is a suitable complementary practice to cover crops, enhancing soil carbon sequestration and the reduction in nitrogen leaching, while reducing potential trade-offs with the main-crop productivity due to their impacts on soil nitrogen and water dynamics. The spatial heterogeneity of simulated impacts of cover crops on the variables assessed here was related to the time period since the introduction of the management practice as well as to environmental and agronomic conditions of the cropland. This study supports findings of other studies, highlighting the substantial potential contribution of cover crop practices to the sustainable development of arable production.

Commonly, parenting behaviors are assessed in an explicit way, usually by means of self-reports. Yet under suboptimal conditions, it is expected that parents act more automatically. The aim of the present longitudinal empirical study was to investigate the influence of automatic and explicit parenting cognitions on alcohol use in adolescents and whether this relationship is dependent on adolescents’ age and gender and parent gender. A sample of 111 parent-child dyads (71.9% mothers; M age = 47.4, SD = 5.3) with children between 12 and 18 years old (55.2% boys; M age = 14.8 years, SD = 1.6) completed the Relational Responding Task (RRT) at T1 (September 2015) and T2 (April 2016) to assess automatic parenting prior to an online questionnaire that assessed explicit alcohol-specific parenting. For lifetime prevalence of drinking, stricter explicit parenting cognitions predicted a lower likelihood of children ever having consumed alcohol at T2. This effect was particularly relevant for older adolescents. Automatic parenting cognitions were not predictive of the lifetime prevalence of alcohol use. For weekly drinking, a significant protective effect of stricter automatic parenting cognitions was found only for older adolescents. This study is the first to demonstrate longitudinally that automatic parenting cognitions as measured by the RRT can be used as a predictor of the level of drinking among older adolescents, even after controlling for explicit parenting behaviors. We argue that the influence of parents is subject to change as a function of adolescents’ age, with the prevailing role of automatic parenting over explicit parenting.

Abstract Background Migraine is a primary headache disorder characterized by recurrent attacks that may have a significant impact on patients’ daily life. Treatment options must often be re-evaluated in light of efficacy, tolerability and compliance issues. Few data on commonly applied treatment algorithms and treatment failures have existed in Germany in 2017/2018. The PANORAMA survey was designed to explore and characterize the migraine healthcare landscape and to demonstrate the medical treatment need at that time in Germany. Methods Three different questionnaires were used to assess the profile of the 119 participating centers, characterize migraine patients at centers and evaluate qualitative aspects of the current migraine healthcare situation from a physician´s professional perspective. Data were analyzed as observed and summarized by descriptive statistics. Results The results demonstrate that once referred to a migraine specialist, the majority of patients continue to be treated at a specialist. At specialized centers, 41.6 % of migraine patients receive prophylactic treatment. 45.4 % of prophylactic treatments are initiated with a beta-blocker and 28.1 % with an anti-epileptic. Pivotal factors to initiate prophylactic treatment are migraine attack frequency and intensity (58.0 %). Treatment decisions are largely based on prior / concomitant diseases and physical constitution of the patient (52.1 %). Following an inadequate treatment, most patients either switch substance class or discontinue prophylactic treatment. Conclusions PANORAMA gives a comprehensive overview of the migraine healthcare landscape in Germany in 2017/2018, elucidates a lack of common treatment algorithms and reveals a high demand for defined therapy strategies and new prophylactic treatment going forwards.

The terrestrial biosphere is exposed to land-use and climate change, which not only affects vegetation dynamics but also changes land–atmosphere feedbacks. Specifically, changes in land cover affect biophysical feedbacks of water and energy, thereby contributing to climate change. In this study, we couple the well-established and comprehensively validated dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL5 (Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land) to the coupled climate model CM2Mc, the latter of which is based on the atmosphere model AM2 and the ocean model MOM5 (Modular Ocean Model 5), and name it CM2Mc-LPJmL. In CM2Mc, we replace the simple land-surface model LaD (Land Dynamics; where vegetation is static and prescribed) with LPJmL5, and we fully couple the water and energy cycles using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Flexible Modeling System (FMS). Several improvements to LPJmL5 were implemented to allow a fully functional biophysical coupling. These include a sub-daily cycle for calculating energy and water fluxes, conductance of the soil evaporation and plant interception, canopy-layer humidity, and the surface energy balance in order to calculate the surface and canopy-layer temperature within LPJmL5. Exchanging LaD with LPJmL5 and, therefore, switching from a static and prescribed vegetation to a dynamic vegetation allows us to model important biospheric processes, including fire, mortality, permafrost, hydrological cycling and the impacts of managed land (crop growth and irrigation). Our results show that CM2Mc-LPJmL has similar temperature and precipitation biases to the original CM2Mc model with LaD. The performance of LPJmL5 in the coupled system compared to Earth observation data and to LPJmL offline simulation results is within acceptable error margins. The historical global mean temperature evolution of our model setup is within the range of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. The comparison of model runs with and without land-use change shows a partially warmer and drier climate state across the global land surface. CM2Mc-LPJmL opens new opportunities to investigate important biophysical vegetation–climate feedbacks with a state-of-the-art and process-based dynamic vegetation model.

A variety of modelling studies have suggested tree rooting depth as a key variable to explain evapotranspiration rates, productivity and the geographical distribution of evergreen forests in tropical South America. However, none of those studies have acknowledged resource investment, timing and physical constraints of tree rooting depth within a competitive environment, undermining the ecological realism of their results. Here, we present an approach of implementing variable rooting strategies and dynamic root growth into the LPJmL4.0 (Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land) dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) and apply it to tropical and sub-tropical South America under contemporary climate conditions. We show how competing rooting strategies which underlie the trade-off between above- and below-ground carbon investment lead to more realistic simulation of intra-annual productivity and evapotranspiration and consequently of forest cover and spatial biomass distribution. We find that climate and soil depth determine a spatially heterogeneous pattern of mean rooting depth and below-ground biomass across the study region. Our findings support the hypothesis that the ability of evergreen trees to adjust their rooting systems to seasonally dry climates is crucial to explaining the current dominance, productivity and evapotranspiration of evergreen forests in tropical South America.

Introduction Suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STB) are a serious public health problem. Suicide prevention programs have been established over the years but many people who are suicidal do not seek treatment, and when they do they will end up in low-threshold sectors such as the Emergency Department in general hospitals. Previous studies about STB are mostly narrative, rather than a date-driven approach and limited in sample size. Objectives The main goal of this study is to describe the prevalence and evolution of STB (ideation, plan or attempt) of the psychiatric patient referred to the Emergency Department of the University Hospital Gasthuisberg (Leuven, Belgium) over a 12 year period. Methods During a 12 year period (2003-2015), all patients with a psychiatric referral to the Psychiatric Emergency Room (PER) of the University Hospital Gasthuisberg (Leuven, Belgium) were included (N˜25.000). We use descriptive statistics to summarize the data set, focusing on STB in terms of raw numbers, symptoms at referral, mental disorders and demographic characteristics. Results Around 1/9 patients presents with suicide attempt; another 1/5 with suicidal thoughts. STB accounts for 35% of psychiatric primary complaints at the PER. Women were more likely to present with STB. The proportion of STB referrals remains stable over the years. Conclusions Despite several reforms in mental health care, the PER remains a major entry point into mental healthcare for large proportions of STB patients. Disclosure No significant relationships.

Being an extensively produced natural fiber on earth, cotton is of importance for economies. Although the plant is broadly adapted to varying environments, the growth of and irrigation water demand on cotton may be challenged by future climate change. To study the impacts of climate change on cotton productivity in different regions across the world and the irrigation water requirements related to it, we use the process-based, spatially detailed biosphere and hydrology model LPJmL (Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed land). We find our modeled cotton yield levels in good agreement with reported values and simulated water consumption of cotton production similar to published estimates. Following the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) protocol, we employ an ensemble of five general circulation models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the 2011–2099 period to simulate future cotton yields. We find that irrigated cotton production does not suffer from climate change if CO2 effects are considered, whereas rainfed production is more sensitive to varying climate conditions. Considering the overall effect of a changing climate and CO2 fertilization, cotton production on current cropland steadily increases for most of the RCPs. Starting from ∼65 million tonnes in 2010, cotton production for RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 equates to 83 and 92 million tonnes at the end of the century, respectively. Under RCP8.5, simulated global cotton production rises by more than 50 % by 2099. Taking only climate change into account, projected cotton production considerably shrinks in most scenarios, by up to one-third or 43 million tonnes under RCP8.5. The simulation of future virtual water content (VWC) of cotton grown under elevated CO2 results for all scenarios in less VWC compared to ambient CO2 conditions. Under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, VWC is notably decreased by more than 2000 m3 t−1 in areas where cotton is produced under purely rainfed conditions. By 2040, the average global VWC for cotton declines in all scenarios from currently 3300 to 3000 m3 t−1, and reduction continues by up to 30 % in 2100 under RCP8.5. While the VWC decreases by the CO2 effect, elevated temperature acts in the opposite direction. Ignoring beneficial CO2 effects, global VWC of cotton would increase for all RCPs except RCP2.6, reaching more than 5000 m3 t−1 by the end of the simulation period under RCP8.5. Given the economic relevance of cotton production, climate change poses an additional stress and deserves special attention. Changes in VWC and water demands for cotton production are of special importance, as cotton production is known for its intense water consumption. The implications of climate impacts on cotton production on the one hand and the impact of cotton production on water resources on the other hand illustrate the need to assess how future climate change may affect cotton production and its resource requirements. Our results should be regarded as optimistic, because of high uncertainty with respect to CO2 fertilization and the lack of implementing processes of boll abscission under heat stress. Still, the inclusion of cotton in LPJmL allows for various large-scale studies to assess impacts of climate change on hydrological factors and the implications for agricultural production and carbon sequestration.

The project MarParCloud (Marine biological production, organic aerosol Particles and marine Clouds: a process chain) aims to improve our understanding of the genesis, modification and impact of marine organic matter (OM) from its biological production, to its export to marine aerosol particles and, finally, to its ability to act as ice-nucleating particles (INPs) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). A field campaign at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory (CVAO) in the tropics in September–October 2017 formed the core of this project that was jointly performed with the project MARSU (MARine atmospheric Science Unravelled). A suite of chemical, physical, biological and meteorological techniques was applied, and comprehensive measurements of bulk water, the sea surface microlayer (SML), cloud water and ambient aerosol particles collected at a ground-based and a mountain station took place. Key variables comprised the chemical characterization of the atmospherically relevant OM components in the ocean and the atmosphere as well as measurements of INPs and CCN. Moreover, bacterial cell counts, mercury species and trace gases were analyzed. To interpret the results, the measurements were accompanied by various auxiliary parameters such as air mass back-trajectory analysis, vertical atmospheric profile analysis, cloud observations and pigment measurements in seawater. Additional modeling studies supported the experimental analysis. During the campaign, the CVAO exhibited marine air masses with low and partly moderate dust influences. The marine boundary layer was well mixed as indicated by an almost uniform particle number size distribution within the boundary layer. Lipid biomarkers were present in the aerosol particles in typical concentrations of marine background conditions. Accumulation- and coarse-mode particles served as CCN and were efficiently transferred to the cloud water. The ascent of ocean-derived compounds, such as sea salt and sugar-like compounds, to the cloud level, as derived from chemical analysis and atmospheric transfer modeling results, denotes an influence of marine emissions on cloud formation. Organic nitrogen compounds (free amino acids) were enriched by several orders of magnitude in submicron aerosol particles and in cloud water compared to seawater. However, INP measurements also indicated a significant contribution of other non-marine sources to the local INP concentration, as (biologically active) INPs were mainly present in supermicron aerosol particles that are not suggested to undergo strong enrichment during ocean–atmosphere transfer. In addition, the number of CCN at the supersaturation of 0.30 % was about 2.5 times higher during dust periods compared to marine periods. Lipids, sugar-like compounds, UV-absorbing (UV: ultraviolet) humic-like substances and low-molecular-weight neutral components were important organic compounds in the seawater, and highly surface-active lipids were enriched within the SML. The selective enrichment of specific organic compounds in the SML needs to be studied in further detail and implemented in an OM source function for emission modeling to better understand transfer patterns, the mechanisms of marine OM transformation in the atmosphere and the role of additional sources. In summary, when looking at particulate mass, we see oceanic compounds transferred to the atmospheric aerosol and to the cloud level, while from a perspective of particle number concentrations, sea spray aerosol (i.e., primary marine aerosol) contributions to both CCN and INPs are rather limited.

Riboflavin (vitamin B2) is essential for monogastric animals. It is mainly produced by recombinant microorganisms (Candida famata, Bacillus subtilis and Ashbya gossypii). The availability of genetically modified organism (GMO)-free riboflavin, obligatory in European organic agriculture, is a major issue. Besides, requirements for organic livestock might differ from conventional production because other genotypes and feed formulations are used. The effects of a fermentation suspension with a high native content of riboflavin produced with unmodified A. gossypii by fermentation were investigated at graded dosages as an alternative to conventional (GMO-based) riboflavin in slow-growing broilers on performance traits and health and welfare indicators. In 2 runs with 800 animals each, Ranger Gold™ broilers were fed with 4 dietary treatments. For starter diets (day 1 to 18), treatments included a basal diet (1) without any riboflavin supplementation (negative control, N-C), (2) with conventional riboflavin supplementation (Cuxavit B2 80% riboflavin) at 9.6 mg/kg (positive control, P-C), (3) with riboflavin supplementation from the alternative source at 3.5 mg/kg (A-low) and (4) with riboflavin supplementation from the alternative source at 9.6 mg/kg (A-high). For the finisher diet (day 29 until slaughtering), P-C and A-high were supplemented with 8.0 mg/kg and A-low with 3.5 mg/kg. Diets were formulated according to organic regulations. Animals were kept in floor pens with 20 chickens per pen. Weekly, BW, feed and water consumption were recorded. Every second week, animal-based health and welfare indicators (feather score and footpad dermatitis) were scored. Slaughter traits were assessed for five males and females per pen at 62/63 days of age. Final body weight of A-high differed from N-C and A-low, but not from P-C. From week 2 until six years of age, A-high had a higher daily weight gain when compared to all other groups. With 74.4%, dressing percentage was higher in A-high compared with all other groups (73.3%). Breast percentage of A-low was lower than that of both control groups but did not differ from A-high. The highest frequency of liver scores indicating fatty liver syndrome was found in P-C, followed by N-C and A-low. Feather scores did not respond to treatment; the highest frequency of mild footpad dermatitis was observed in A-high, however at a low prevalence. In conclusion, the tested fermentation suspension with a high native content of riboflavin derived from fermentation of A. gossypii can be used at levels of commercial recommendations as alternative to riboflavin produced from GMO in broiler feeding. Further studies must verify whether riboflavin can be reduced without inducing riboflavin deficiency in slow-growing broilers.

Vegetation fires influence global vegetation distribution, ecosystem functioning, and global carbon cycling. Specifically in South America, changes in fire occurrence together with land-use change accelerate ecosystem fragmentation and increase the vulnerability of tropical forests and savannas to climate change. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are valuable tools to estimate the effects of fire on ecosystem functioning and carbon cycling under future climate changes. However, most fire-enabled DGVMs have problems in capturing the magnitude, spatial patterns, and temporal dynamics of burned area as observed by satellites. As fire is controlled by the interplay of weather conditions, vegetation properties, and human activities, fire modules in DGVMs can be improved in various aspects. In this study we focus on improving the controls of climate and hence fuel moisture content on fire danger in the LPJmL4-SPITFIRE DGVM in South America, especially for the Brazilian fire-prone biomes of Caatinga and Cerrado. We therefore test two alternative model formulations (standard Nesterov Index and a newly implemented water vapor pressure deficit) for climate effects on fire danger within a formal model–data integration setup where we estimate model parameters against satellite datasets of burned area (GFED4) and aboveground biomass of trees. Our results show that the optimized model improves the representation of spatial patterns and the seasonal to interannual dynamics of burned area especially in the Cerrado and Caatinga regions. In addition, the model improves the simulation of aboveground biomass and the spatial distribution of plant functional types (PFTs). We obtained the best results by using the water vapor pressure deficit (VPD) for the calculation of fire danger. The VPD includes, in comparison to the Nesterov Index, a representation of the air humidity and the vegetation density. This work shows the successful application of a systematic model–data integration setup, as well as the integration of a new fire danger formulation, in order to optimize a process-based fire-enabled DGVM. It further highlights the potential of this approach to achieve a new level of accuracy in comprehensive global fire modeling and prediction.

Dissolved methane in Lake Kivu (East Africa) represents a precious energy deposit for the neighbouring countries, but the high gas loads have also been perceived as a threat by the local population. This is especially the case with respect to potential changes to the lake's stratification during planned industrial exploitation. Both of the above-mentioned issues require accurate and reliable measurements of dissolved gases and temporal changes to take responsible action. Previous data were unable to satisfactorily fulfil these requirements. Prior to our measurements, there was considerable disagreement about prognosticated new formation of methane. We show how measurement accuracy could be significantly improved by implementing equipment that is especially designed and modified for the complex gas conditions in Lake Kivu. Samples were taken from depths of 150 to 430 m to more reliably and more accurately determine the amount of dissolved methane and dissolved carbon dioxide. Beyond the provision of gas concentration profiles at the beginning of exploitation, this investigation can also potentially provide methods to survey the further evolution of gases over time. The use of gas-tight sampling bags produced highly reliable and accurate measurements. Our measurements confirmed the huge amount of stored methane, but clearly did not support the current belief of a significant recharge beyond diffusive loss. Direct measurements with a custom-made gas pressure sensor indicated no imminent danger due to limnic eruptions. However, a further survey of gas pressures is mandatory to detect changing conditions. Using sampling bags and a gas pressure sensor, we introduced reliable and highly accurate measurement approaches for the survey of the further development of gas concentrations. This equipment requires little effort with respect to calibration, which makes it suitable for use in the remote areas of Africa.

Abstract Background Vendor-independent Monte Carlo (MC) dose calculation (IDC) for patient-specific quality assurance of multi-leaf collimator (MLC) based CyberKnife treatments is used to benchmark and validate the commercial MC dose calculation engine for MLC based treatments built into the CyberKnife treatment planning system (Precision MC). Methods The benchmark included dose profiles in water in 15 mm depth and depth dose curves of rectangular MLC shaped fields ranging from 7.6 mm × 7.7 mm to 115.0 mm × 100.1 mm, which were compared between IDC, Precision MC and measurements in terms of dose difference and distance to agreement. Dose distributions of three phantom cases and seven clinical lung cases were calculated using both IDC and Precision MC. The lung PTVs ranged from 14 cm3 to 93 cm3. Quantitative comparison of these dose distributions was performed using dose-volume parameters and 3D gamma analysis with 2% global dose difference and 1 mm distance criteria and a global 10% dose threshold. Time to calculate dose distributions was recorded and efficiency was assessed. Results Absolute dose profiles in 15 mm depth in water showed agreement between Precision MC and IDC within 3.1% or 1 mm. Depth dose curves agreed within 2.3% / 1 mm. For the phantom and clinical lung cases, mean PTV doses differed from − 1.0 to + 2.3% between IDC and Precision MC and gamma passing rates were > =98.1% for all multiple beam treatment plans. For the lung cases, lung V20 agreed within ±1.5%. Calculation times ranged from 2.2 min (for 39 cm3 PTV at 1.0 × 1.0 × 2.5 mm3 native CT resolution) to 8.1 min (93 cm3 at 1.1 × 1.1 × 1.0 mm3), at 2% uncertainty for Precision MC for the 7 examined lung cases and 4–6 h for IDC, which, however, is not optimized for efficiency but used as a gold standard for accuracy. Conclusions Both accuracy and efficiency of Precision MC in the context of MLC based planning for the CyberKnife M6 system were benchmarked against MC based IDC framework. Precision MC is used in clinical practice at our institute.

The effects of tillage on soil properties, crop productivity, and global greenhouse gas emissions have been discussed in the last decades. Global ecosystem models have limited capacity to simulate the various effects of tillage. With respect to the decomposition of soil organic matter, they either assume a constant increase due to tillage or they ignore the effects of tillage. Hence, they do not allow for analysing the effects of tillage and cannot evaluate, for example, reduced tillage or no tillage (referred to here as “no-till”) practises as mitigation practices for climate change. In this paper, we describe the implementation of tillage-related practices in the global ecosystem model LPJmL. The extended model is evaluated against reported differences between tillage and no-till management on several soil properties. To this end, simulation results are compared with published meta-analyses on tillage effects. In general, the model is able to reproduce observed tillage effects on global, as well as regional, patterns of carbon and water fluxes. However, modelled N fluxes deviate from the literature values and need further study. The addition of the tillage module to LPJmL5 opens up opportunities to assess the impact of agricultural soil management practices under different scenarios with implications for agricultural productivity, carbon sequestration, greenhouse gas emissions, and other environmental indicators.

A refinement preorder for a model of concurrent systems should be compositional (i.e. a precongruence for parallel composition) and should not introduce faults into a fault-free specification. Arguably, the coarsest such precongruence is the optimal refinement preorder. For the model of interface automata, faults are communication errors in the form of unexpected inputs. The respective optimal preorder has been characterized as the inclusion of two trace sets. Here, we extend this result by regarding also quiescence (quiescence and divergence resp.) as faults. The latter preorder is coarser, i.e. better, than an earlier preorder regarding errors, quiescence and divergence. We also present conjunction operators for our settings, avoiding flaws that can be found in the literature, and a quotient operator.

Background: Overriding the differentiation blockage in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is the most successful mode-of-action in leukemia therapy – now curing the vast majority of patients with acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) using all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA)-based regimens. Similar approaches in other leukemia subtypes, such as IDH1/2-mutated AML, are under active investigation. We herein present successful release of the differentiation blockage upon treatment with the natural (−)-Δ9-Tetrahydrocannabinol isomer dronabinol in vitro and in vivo. Methods: Cellular maturation and differentiation were followed in two patients employing whole genome methylation profiling, proteome analyses, NGS deep sequencing and multispectral imaging flow cytometry. For functional studies lentiviral OGT knock-down in vitro and ex vivo cell models were created to evaluate proliferative, apoptotic and differentiating effects of OGT in acute leukemia. Findings: In here, we provide molecular evidence that dronbinol is capable to override the differentiation blockage of acute leukemia blasts at the state of the leukemia-initiating clone. We further identify the O-linked β-N-acetyl glucosamine (O-GlcNAc) transferase (OGT) to be crucial in this process. OGT is a master regulator enzyme adding O-GlcNAc to serine or threonine residues in a multitude of target proteins. Aberrant O-GlcNAc modification is implicated in pathologies of metabolic, neurodegenerative and autoimme diseases as well as cancers. We provide evidence that dronabinol induces transcription of OGT via epigenetic hypomethylation of the transcription start site (TSS). A lentiviral OGT-knock out approach proves the central role of OGT exerting antileukemic efficacy via a dual-mechanism of action: High concentrations of dronabinol result in induction of apoptosis, whereas lower concentrations drive cellular maturation. Most intriguingly, overriding of the differentiation blockage of acute leukemia blasts is validated in vivo following two patients treated with dronabinol. Interpretation: In conclusion, we provide evidence for overcoming the differentiation blockage in acute leukemia in subentities beyond promyelocytic and IDH1/2-mutated leukemia and thereby identify O-GlcNAcylation as a novel (drugable) field for future leukemia research. Funding: Unrestricted grant support by the IZKF Program of the Medical Faculty Tübingen (MMS) and Brigitte Schlieben-Lange Program as well as the Margarete von Wrangell Program of the Ministry of Science, Research and the Arts, Baden-Württemberg, Germany (KKS) and Athene Program of the excellence initiative University of Tübingen (KKS). Keywords: Acute leukemia, Differentiation, OGT, Dronabinol

The well-established dynamical global vegetation, hydrology, and crop growth model LPJmL is extended with a terrestrial nitrogen cycle to account for nutrient limitations. In particular, processes of soil nitrogen dynamics, plant uptake, nitrogen allocation, response of photosynthesis and maintenance respiration to varying nitrogen concentrations in plant organs, and agricultural nitrogen management are included in the model. All new model features are described in full detail and the results of a global simulation of the historic past (1901–2009) are presented for evaluation of the model performance. We find that the implementation of nitrogen limitation significantly improves the simulation of global patterns of crop productivity. Regional differences in crop productivity, which had to be calibrated via a scaling of the maximum leaf area index, can now largely be reproduced by the model, except for regions where fertilizer inputs and climate conditions are not the yield-limiting factors. Furthermore, it can be shown that land use has a strong influence on nitrogen losses, increasing leaching by 93 %.

The dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL4 is a process-based model that simulates climate and land use change impacts on the terrestrial biosphere, agricultural production, and the water and carbon cycle. Different versions of the model have been developed and applied to evaluate the role of natural and managed ecosystems in the Earth system and the potential impacts of global environmental change. A comprehensive model description of the new model version, LPJmL4, is provided in a companion paper (Schaphoff et al., 2018c). Here, we provide a full picture of the model performance, going beyond standard benchmark procedures and give hints on the strengths and shortcomings of the model to identify the need for further model improvement. Specifically, we evaluate LPJmL4 against various datasets from in situ measurement sites, satellite observations, and agricultural yield statistics. We apply a range of metrics to evaluate the quality of the model to simulate stocks and flows of carbon and water in natural and managed ecosystems at different temporal and spatial scales. We show that an advanced phenology scheme improves the simulation of seasonal fluctuations in the atmospheric CO2 concentration, while the permafrost scheme improves estimates of carbon stocks. The full LPJmL4 code including the new developments will be supplied open source through https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL. We hope that this will lead to new model developments and applications that improve the model performance and possibly build up a new understanding of the terrestrial biosphere.

This paper provides a comprehensive description of the newest version of the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model with managed Land, LPJmL4. This model simulates – internally consistently – the growth and productivity of both natural and agricultural vegetation as coherently linked through their water, carbon, and energy fluxes. These features render LPJmL4 suitable for assessing a broad range of feedbacks within and impacts upon the terrestrial biosphere as increasingly shaped by human activities such as climate change and land use change. Here we describe the core model structure, including recently developed modules now unified in LPJmL4. Thereby, we also review LPJmL model developments and evaluations in the field of permafrost, human and ecological water demand, and improved representation of crop types. We summarize and discuss LPJmL model applications dealing with the impacts of historical and future environmental change on the terrestrial biosphere at regional and global scale and provide a comprehensive overview of LPJmL publications since the first model description in 2007. To demonstrate the main features of the LPJmL4 model, we display reference simulation results for key processes such as the current global distribution of natural and managed ecosystems, their productivities, and associated water fluxes. A thorough evaluation of the model is provided in a companion paper. By making the model source code freely available at https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL, we hope to stimulate the application and further development of LPJmL4 across scientific communities in support of major activities such as the IPCC and SDG process.

Abstract Background While the N-terminal pro-brain-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) at rest is known to be associated with prognosis in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), it is unclear if the NT-proBNP response to exercise (ΔNT-proBNP) can contribute to a better assessment of disease severity. Methods We investigated the association of NT-proBNP values at rest and during peak exercise with hemodynamics and cardiopulmonary exercise testing parameters in 63 therapy-naive PAH patients. Results The median NT-proBNP increases from 1414 at rest to 1500 pg/ml at peak exercise. The ΔNT-proBNP is baseline-dependent in PAH. Both, NT-proBNP at rest and NT-proBNP at peak exercise, are significantly correlated with hemodynamics and functional capacity. However, neither NT-proBNP at peak exercise nor ΔNT-proBNP correlated better with surrogate markers of disease severity than NT-proBNP at rest. Conclusion The ΔNT-proBNP does not contribute to a better assessment of disease severity in PAH.

Abstract Background N-terminal pro-brain-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is currently used as a surrogate marker for disease severity in pulmonary hypertension (PH). However, NT-proBNP tends to have a high variability and may insufficiently correlate with hemodynamics and exercise capacity. Methods To investigate the association of NT-proBNP with hemodynamics and cardio-pulmonary exercise testing (CPET) in 84 therapy-naive patients with precapillary PH. Results NT-proBNP levels were significantly correlated with hemodynamics and CPET parameters except for cardiac index, diffusion capacity, PaO2 at peak exercise, and peak minute ventilation. NT-proBNP correlated best with hemodynamics and CPET in women and patients >65 years. NT-proBNP correlated better with CPET in pulmonary arterial hypertension compared to chronic thromboembolic PH (CTEPH). Conclusion NT-proBNP is associated with disease severity in precapillary PH. The association might be age- and gender-dependent. NT-proBNP may insufficiently correlate with disease severity in CTEPH, possibly due to comorbidity.

We present the design of a single-drive Mach-Zehnder modulator for amplitude modulation in silicon-on-insulator technology with 250 nm active layer thickness. The applied RF signal modulates the carrier density in a reverse biased lateral pn-junction. The free carrier plasma dispersion effect in silicon leads to a change in the refractive index. The modulation efficiency and the optical loss due to free carriers are analyzed for different doping configurations. The intrinsic electrical parameters of the pn-junction of the phase shifter like resistance and capacitance and the corresponding RC-limit are studied. A first prototype in this technology fabricated at the IMS CHIPS Stuttgart is successfully measured. The structure has a modulation efficiency of VπL = 3.1 V ⋅ cm at 2 V reverse bias. The on-chip insertion loss is 4.2 dB. The structure exhibits an extinction ratio of around 32 dB. The length of the phase shifter is 0.5 mm. The cutoff frequency of the entire modulator is 30 GHz at 2 V. Finally, an optimization of the doping structure is presented to reduce the optical loss and to improve the modulation efficiency. The optimized silicon optical modulator shows a theoretical modulation efficiency of VπL = 1.8 V ⋅ cm at 6 V bias and a maximum optical loss due to the free carrier absorption of around 3.1 dB cm−1. An ultra-low fiber-to-fiber loss of approximately 4.8 dB is expected using the state of the art optical components in the used technology.

We present a novel silicon-organic hybrid modulator based on an integrated dual-mode interferometer. The modulator offers a compact, simplified design and enhanced robustness to on-chip fluctuations of temperature compared to conventional Mach-Zehnder based systems. A prototype modulator showing a voltage dependent transmission spectrum is obtained by cladding a dual-mode waveguide in a 250 nm silicon-on-insulator technology with a customized organic electro-optic layer. Estimated phase shifts and corresponding figures of merit are discussed in this contribution. The used organic layer is based on the guest-host approach with customized donor-π-acceptor chromophore embedded and poled in a poly(methylmethacrylate) matrix. The presented prototype is to the best of the authors' knowledge the first integrated single waveguide silicon-organic hybrid modulator.

The hyporheic zone is a hotspot of biogeochemical turnover and nutrient removal in running waters. However, nutrient fluxes through the hyporheic zone are highly variable in time and locally heterogeneous. Resulting from the lack of adequate methodologies to obtain representative long-term measurements, our quantitative knowledge on transport and turnover in this important transition zone is still limited.In groundwater systems passive flux meters, devices which simultaneously detect horizontal water and solute flow through a screen well in the subsurface, are valuable tools for measuring fluxes of target solutes and water through those ecosystems. Their functioning is based on accumulation of target substances on a sorbent and concurrent displacement of a resident tracer which is previously loaded on the sorbent.Here we evaluate the applicability of this methodology for investigating water and nutrient fluxes in hyporheic zones. Based on laboratory experiments we developed hyporheic passive flux meters (HPFMs) with a length of 50 cm which were separated in 5–7 segments allowing for vertical resolution of horizontal nutrient and water transport. The HPFMs were tested in a 7 day field campaign including simultaneous measurements of oxygen and temperature profiles and manual sampling of pore water. The results highlighted the advantages of the novel method: with HPFMs, cumulative values for the average N and P flux during the complete deployment time could be captured. Thereby the two major deficits of existing methods are overcome: first, flux rates are measured within one device instead of being calculated from separate measurements of water flow and pore-water concentrations; second, time-integrated measurements are insensitive to short-term fluctuations and therefore deliver more representable values for overall hyporheic nutrient fluxes at the sampling site than snapshots from grab sampling. A remaining limitation to the HPFM is the potential susceptibility to biofilm growth on the resin, an issue which was not considered in previous passive flux meter applications. Potential techniques to inhibit biofouling are discussed based on the results of the presented work. Finally, we exemplarily demonstrate how HPFM measurements can be used to explore hyporheic nutrient dynamics, specifically nitrate uptake rates, based on the measurements from our field test. Being low in costs and labour effective, many flux meters can be installed in order to capture larger areas of river beds. This novel technique has therefore the potential to deliver quantitative data which are required to answer unsolved questions about transport and turnover of nutrients in hyporheic zones.

To perform the numerical analysis of metal forming processes, material models are needed. These models are based on experiments such as the tensile test. To generate a material model from experimental results, the test data must be analyzed, possibly smoothed, fitted by mathematical approaches and exported in the format of the simulation software. Currently this is achieved using proprietary software, self-programmed code or spreadsheets. The software MaterialModeler is aimed at closing the gap between the data generated in experiments and simulation software to improve the quality of material models, especially in respect of complex to model materials. Simultaneously, the error rate compared to the current manual process is decreased and every step from the experimental raw data to the material model is reproducible. MaterialModeler has been developed in the field of sheet metal forming, but it should easily be possible to extend its use to other disciplines. Keywords: Material model, Material characterization, Metal forming

Irrigation in the Mediterranean is of vital importance for food security, employment and economic development. This study systematically assesses how climate change and increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations may affect irrigation requirements in the Mediterranean region by 2080–2090. Future demographic change and technological improvements in irrigation systems are taken into account, as is the spread of climate forcing, warming levels and potential realization of the CO2-fertilization effect. Vegetation growth, phenology, agricultural production and irrigation water requirements and withdrawal were simulated with the process-based ecohydrological and agro-ecosystem model LPJmL (Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land) after an extensive development that comprised the improved representation of Mediterranean crops. At present the Mediterranean region could save 35 % of water by implementing more efficient irrigation and conveyance systems. Some countries such as Syria, Egypt and Turkey have a higher savings potential than others. Currently some crops, especially sugar cane and agricultural trees, consume on average more irrigation water per hectare than annual crops. Different crops show different magnitudes of changes in net irrigation requirements due to climate change, the increases being most pronounced in agricultural trees. The Mediterranean area as a whole may face an increase in gross irrigation requirements between 4 and 18 % from climate change alone if irrigation systems and conveyance are not improved (4 and 18 % with 2 °C global warming combined with the full CO2-fertilization effect and 5 °C global warming combined with no CO2-fertilization effect, respectively). Population growth increases these numbers to 22 and 74 %, respectively, affecting mainly the southern and eastern Mediterranean. However, improved irrigation technologies and conveyance systems have a large water saving potential, especially in the eastern Mediterranean, and may be able to compensate to some degree for the increases due to climate change and population growth. Both subregions would need around 35 % more water than today if they implement some degree of modernization of irrigation and conveyance systems and benefit from the CO2-fertilization effect. Nevertheless, water scarcity may pose further challenges to the agricultural sector: Algeria, Libya, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Serbia, Morocco, Tunisia and Spain have a high risk of not being able to sustainably meet future irrigation water requirements in some scenarios. The results presented in this study point to the necessity of performing further research on climate-friendly agro-ecosystems in order to assess, on the one hand, their degree of resilience to climate shocks and, on the other hand, their adaptation potential when confronted with higher temperatures and changes in water availability.

In the Mediterranean region, climate and land use change are expected to impact on natural and agricultural ecosystems by warming, reduced rainfall, direct degradation of ecosystems and biodiversity loss. Human population growth and socioeconomic changes, notably on the eastern and southern shores, will require increases in food production and put additional pressure on agro-ecosystems and water resources. Coping with these challenges requires informed decisions that, in turn, require assessments by means of a comprehensive agro-ecosystem and hydrological model. This study presents the inclusion of 10 Mediterranean agricultural plants, mainly perennial crops, in an agro-ecosystem model (Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land – LPJmL): nut trees, date palms, citrus trees, orchards, olive trees, grapes, cotton, potatoes, vegetables and fodder grasses. The model was successfully tested in three model outputs: agricultural yields, irrigation requirements and soil carbon density. With the development presented in this study, LPJmL is now able to simulate in good detail and mechanistically the functioning of Mediterranean agriculture with a comprehensive representation of ecophysiological processes for all vegetation types (natural and agricultural) and in a consistent framework that produces estimates of carbon, agricultural and hydrological variables for the entire Mediterranean basin. This development paves the way for further model extensions aiming at the representation of alternative agro-ecosystems (e.g. agroforestry), and opens the door for a large number of applications in the Mediterranean region, for example assessments of the consequences of land use transitions, the influence of management practices and climate change impacts.

Summary.

For the investigation and characterisation of liquid media with microorganisms, electrochemical sensors are typically used. Usually the microorganisms are part of the process or cannot be excluded for different reasons. This paper describes the application of various electrodes, which are partly miniaturised and combined with multi-sensor systems for several applications in processes containing microorganisms. The application in industrial bioprocesses like beer brewing and biogas production, and in paper manufacturing, is described. The performance of the multi-sensor systems, and thus their suitability for a contribution to improved process monitoring, is evaluated. The multi-sensor systems represent an interesting tool to enhance monitoring capacities at installed systems without the necessity for huge port installations and offer the possibility to monitor the spatial distribution of gradients. The developed systems presented here allow location-independent measurements in process plants with a variable positioning of the sensors in the industrial reactors.

Long-term human interactions with the natural landscape have produced a plethora of trends and patterns of environmental disturbances across time and space. Nitrogen deposition, closely tracking energy and land use, is known to be among the main drivers of pollution, affecting both freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems. We present a statistical approach for investigating the historical and geographical distribution of nitrogen deposition and the impacts of accumulation on recent soil carbon-to-nitrogen ratios in Europe. After the second Industrial Revolution, large swaths of land emerged characterized by different atmospheric deposition patterns caused by industrial activities or intensive agriculture. Nitrogen deposition affects soil C : N ratios in a still recognizable way despite the abatement of oxidized and reduced nitrogen emissions during the last 2 decades. Given a seemingly disparate land-use history, we focused on ~ 10 000 unmanaged ecosystems, providing statistical evidence for a rapid response of nature to the chronic nitrogen supply through atmospheric deposition.

We discuss the multiple decay modes of collinear fission in 252Cf(sf, fff), with three fragments as suggested by the potential energy surface (PES). Fission as a statistical decay is governed by the phase space of the different decay channels, which are suggested in the PES-landscape. The population of the fission modes is determined by the minima in the PES at the scission points and on the internal potential barriers. The ternary collinear decay proceeds as a sequential process, in two steps. The originally observed ternary decay of 252Cf(sf) into three different masses (e.g. 132–140Sn, 52–48Ca, 68–72Ni), observed by the FOBOS group in the FLNR (Flerov Laboratory for Nuclear Reactions) of the JINR (Dubna) the collinear cluster tripartition (CCT), is one of the ternary fission modes. This kind of “true ternary fission” of heavy nuclei has often been predicted in theoretical works during the last decades. In the present note we discuss different ternary fission modes in the same system. The PES shows pronounced minima, which correspond to several modes of ternary fragmentations. These decays have very similar dynamical features as the previously observed CCT-decays. The data obtained in the experiments on CCT allow us to extract the yields for different decay modes using specific gates on the measured parameters, and to establish multiple modes of the ternary fission decay. Keywords: Fission, Potential energy surfaces, Ternary fission, Multi-modal fission

Extreme weather events are likely to occur more often under climate change and the resulting effects on ecosystems could lead to a further acceleration of climate change. But not all extreme weather events lead to extreme ecosystem response. Here, we focus on hazardous ecosystem behaviour and identify coinciding weather conditions. We use a simple probabilistic risk assessment based on time series of ecosystem behaviour and climate conditions. Given the risk assessment terminology, vulnerability and risk for the previously defined hazard are estimated on the basis of observed hazardous ecosystem behaviour. We apply this approach to extreme responses of terrestrial ecosystems to drought, defining the hazard as a negative net biome productivity over a 12-month period. We show an application for two selected sites using data for 1981–2010 and then apply the method to the pan-European scale for the same period, based on numerical modelling results (LPJmL for ecosystem behaviour; ERA-Interim data for climate). Our site-specific results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method, using the SPEI to describe the climate condition. The site in Spain provides an example of vulnerability to drought because the expected value of the SPEI is 0.4 lower for hazardous than for non-hazardous ecosystem behaviour. In northern Germany, on the contrary, the site is not vulnerable to drought because the SPEI expectation values imply wetter conditions in the hazard case than in the non-hazard case. At the pan-European scale, ecosystem vulnerability to drought is calculated in the Mediterranean and temperate region, whereas Scandinavian ecosystems are vulnerable under conditions without water shortages. These first model-based applications indicate the conceptual advantages of the proposed method by focusing on the identification of critical weather conditions for which we observe hazardous ecosystem behaviour in the analysed data set. Application of the method to empirical time series and to future climate would be important next steps to test the approach.

Climate extremes can trigger exceptional responses in terrestrial ecosystems, for instance by altering growth or mortality rates. Such effects are often manifested in reductions in net primary productivity (NPP). Investigating a Europe-wide network of annual radial tree growth records confirms this pattern: we find that 28% of tree ring width (TRW) indices are below two standard deviations in years in which extremely low precipitation, high temperatures or the combination of both noticeably affect tree growth. Based on these findings, we investigate possibilities for detecting climate-driven patterns in long-term TRW data to evaluate state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation models such as the Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic global vegetation model for managed land (LPJmL). The major problem in this context is that LPJmL simulates NPP but not explicitly the radial tree growth, and we need to develop a generic method to allow for a comparison between simulated and observed response patterns. We propose an analysis scheme that quantifies the coincidence rate of climate extremes with some biotic responses (here TRW or simulated NPP). We find a relative reduction of 34% in simulated NPP during precipitation, temperature and combined extremes. This reduction is comparable to the TRW response patterns, but the model responds much more sensitively to drought stress. We identify 10 extreme years during the 20th century during which both model and measurements indicate high coincidence rates across Europe. However, we detect substantial regional differences in simulated and observed responses to climatic extreme events. One explanation for this discrepancy could be the tendency of tree ring data to originate from climatically stressed sites. The difference between model and observed data is amplified by the fact that dynamic vegetation models are designed to simulate mean ecosystem responses on landscape or regional scales. We find that both simulation results and measurements display carry-over effects from climate anomalies during the previous year. We conclude that radial tree growth chronologies provide a suitable basis for generic model benchmarks. The broad application of coincidence analysis in generic model benchmarks along with an increased availability of representative long-term measurements and improved process-based models will refine projections of the long-term carbon balance in terrestrial ecosystems.

Microwave induced selective heating outmatches conventional mold heating by convective heat transfer in means of energy efficiency and cycle time. Moreover, it provides the opportunity of a local manipulation of solidification and cooling processes within the sand casting mold. In this paper, we investigate the suitability of different highly absorbing materials to indirectly heat up the mostly microwave transparent sand mold. The temperature-dependent permittivity of the involved materials is determined by resonator experiments and subsequently used to simulate the electromagnetic field and the thermodynamic response of the sand mold prior to a metal casting process. Experimental results are presented and compared with the outcome of the coupled electromagnetic-thermodynamic simulations and the influence of local microwave heating on the solidification and cooling of the cast is studied.

The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) provides a global, long-term, consistent time series of radiance data in several wavebands which are used for the retrieval of surface spectral reflectance, albedo and surface temperature. Long-term time series of such data products are necessary for studies addressing climate change, sea ice distribution and movement, and ice sheet coastal configuration. AVHRR radiances have also been used to retrieve aerosol properties over ocean and land surfaces. However, the retrieval of aerosol over land is challenging because of the limited information content in the data which renders the inversion problem ill defined. Solving the radiative transfer equations requires additional information to reduce the number of unknowns. In this contribution we utilise an empirical linear relationship between the surface reflectances in the AVHRR channels at wavelengths of 3.75 μm and 2.1 μm, which has been identified in the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. Following the MODIS dark target approach, this relationship is used to obtain the surface reflectance at 0.64 μm. The comparison of the estimated surface reflectances with MODIS reflectance products (MOD09) shows a strong correlation. Once this was established, the MODIS "dark-target" aerosol retrieval method was adapted to AVHRR data. A simplified look-up table (LUT) method, adopted from the Bremen AErosol Retrieval (BAER) algorithm, was used in the retrieval. The aerosol optical depth (AOD) values retrieved from AVHRR with this method compare favourably with ground-based measurements, with 71.8% of the points located within ±(0.1 + 0.15τ) (τ is the AOD) of the identity line. This method can be easily applied to other satellite instruments which do not have a 2.1 μm channel, such as those currently planned to be used on geostationary satellites.

The role and potential management of short-lived atmospheric pollutants such as aerosols are currently a topic of scientific and public debates. Our limited knowledge of atmospheric aerosol and its influence on the Earth's radiation balance has a significant impact on the accuracy and error of current predictions of future climate change. In the last few years, there have been several accounts of the changes in atmospheric aerosol derived from satellite observations, but no study considering the uncertainty caused by different/limited temporal sampling of polar-orbiting satellites and cloud disturbance in the trend estimates of cloud-free aerosol optical thickness (AOT). This study presents an approach to minimize the uncertainties by use of weighted least-squares regression and multiple satellite-derived AOTs from the space-born instruments, MODIS (onboard Terra from 2000 to 2009 and Aqua form 2003 to 2008), MISR (Terra from 2000 to 2010), and SeaWiFS (OrbView-2 from 1998 to 2007) and thereby provides more convincing trend estimates for atmospheric aerosols during the past decade. The AOT decreases over western Europe (i.e., by up to about −40% from 2003 to 2008). In contrast, a statistically significant increase (about +34% in the same period) over eastern China is observed and can be attributed to the increase in both industrial output and Asian desert dust.

Brominated flame retardants (BFRs) are used in a wide variety of products such as electronic devices, upholstery and carpets and in insulation boards. The study presented here aimed to quantify the amounts of BFRs in house dust in Germany. For this purpose 20 residences' dust samples were collected from vacuum cleaner bags and analysed with LC–MS/MS and simultaneously with GC/MS.Using GC/MS, the median (95th percentile) concentrations of PBDEs (sum of tetra- to hepta-congeners), BDE 209, Σ-HBCD (sum of three congeners), and decabromodiphenylethane (DBDPE) were 42 ng/g (230 ng/g), 950 ng/g (3426 ng/g), 335 ng/g (1545 ng/g), and 146 ng/g (1059 ng/g), respectively. Using LC–MS/MS some “novel” flame retardants were found in median concentrations of 343 ng/g (bis(2-ethyl-1-hexyl)tetrabromophthalate, TBPH), and 28 ng/g (tetrabromobisphenol A, TBBPA). Whilst 1,2-bis-(2,4,6-tribromophenoxy)ethane (BTBPE) and 2-ethyl-1-hexyl-2,3,4,5-tetrabromobenzoate (EH-TBB) could not be detected.Based on these measurements an exposure assessment for the sum of tetra- to heptabrominated congeners, BDE 209, and Σ-HBCD resulted in a “high” daily intake for toddlers (based on 95th percentiles) of 1.2 ng/kg b.w., 0.69 ng/kg b.w., and 8.9 ng/kg b.w., respectively. For TBPH the “high” intake was calculated at 4.1 ng/kg b.w. and for DBDPE at 5.3 ng/kg b.w.A clear tendency was observed to apply “novel” BFRs in Germany. Moreover, the results suggest that the recent exposure to PBDEs and HBCD via house dust in Germany is well below the levels that are associated with health effects. For the “novel” brominated flame retardants such an assessment is not possible due to limited toxicological information. Keywords: PBDE, HBCD, BFR, Dust, Intake, Exposure

Metallo-β-lactamases (MBLs) in Enterobacteriaceae are an increasing problem worldwide. This report describes the isolation of Citrobacter freundii carrying IMP-8 MBL from three patients during the period from March 2012 until March 2013 in Germany. The blaIMP-8 enzyme is predominantly found in Asia, where IMP-8 has spread to various enterobacterial species causing serious infections. To our best knowledge, this is the first report of blaIMP-8 habouring Enterobacteriaceae in Europe.

Within the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) project Aerosol_cci (2010–2013), algorithms for the production of long-term total column aerosol optical depth (AOD) datasets from European Earth Observation sensors are developed. Starting with eight existing pre-cursor algorithms three analysis steps are conducted to improve and qualify the algorithms: (1) a series of experiments applied to one month of global data to understand several major sensitivities to assumptions needed due to the ill-posed nature of the underlying inversion problem, (2) a round robin exercise of "best" versions of each of these algorithms (defined using the step 1 outcome) applied to four months of global data to identify mature algorithms, and (3) a comprehensive validation exercise applied to one complete year of global data produced by the algorithms selected as mature based on the round robin exercise. The algorithms tested included four using AATSR, three using MERIS and one using PARASOL. This paper summarizes the first step. Three experiments were conducted to assess the potential impact of major assumptions in the various aerosol retrieval algorithms. In the first experiment a common set of four aerosol components was used to provide all algorithms with the same assumptions. The second experiment introduced an aerosol property climatology, derived from a combination of model and sun photometer observations, as a priori information in the retrievals on the occurrence of the common aerosol components. The third experiment assessed the impact of using a common nadir cloud mask for AATSR and MERIS algorithms in order to characterize the sensitivity to remaining cloud contamination in the retrievals against the baseline dataset versions. The impact of the algorithm changes was assessed for one month (September 2008) of data: qualitatively by inspection of monthly mean AOD maps and quantitatively by comparing daily gridded satellite data against daily averaged AERONET sun photometer observations for the different versions of each algorithm globally (land and coastal) and for three regions with different aerosol regimes. The analysis allowed for an assessment of sensitivities of all algorithms, which helped define the best algorithm versions for the subsequent round robin exercise; all algorithms (except for MERIS) showed some, in parts significant, improvement. In particular, using common aerosol components and partly also a priori aerosol-type climatology is beneficial. On the other hand the use of an AATSR-based common cloud mask meant a clear improvement (though with significant reduction of coverage) for the MERIS standard product, but not for the algorithms using AATSR. It is noted that all these observations are mostly consistent for all five analyses (global land, global coastal, three regional), which can be understood well, since the set of aerosol components defined in Sect. 3.1 was explicitly designed to cover different global aerosol regimes (with low and high absorption fine mode, sea salt and dust).

The responses of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other climate variables to an emission pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere are often used to compute the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), to characterize the response timescales of Earth System models, and to build reduced-form models. In this carbon cycle-climate model intercomparison project, which spans the full model hierarchy, we quantify responses to emission pulses of different magnitudes injected under different conditions. The CO2 response shows the known rapid decline in the first few decades followed by a millennium-scale tail. For a 100 Gt-C emission pulse added to a constant CO2 concentration of 389 ppm, 25 ± 9% is still found in the atmosphere after 1000 yr; the ocean has absorbed 59 ± 12% and the land the remainder (16 ± 14%). The response in global mean surface air temperature is an increase by 0.20 ± 0.12 °C within the first twenty years; thereafter and until year 1000, temperature decreases only slightly, whereas ocean heat content and sea level continue to rise. Our best estimate for the Absolute Global Warming Potential, given by the time-integrated response in CO2 at year 100 multiplied by its radiative efficiency, is 92.5 × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. This value very likely (5 to 95% confidence) lies within the range of (68 to 117) × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. Estimates for time-integrated response in CO2 published in the IPCC First, Second, and Fourth Assessment and our multi-model best estimate all agree within 15% during the first 100 yr. The integrated CO2 response, normalized by the pulse size, is lower for pre-industrial conditions, compared to present day, and lower for smaller pulses than larger pulses. In contrast, the response in temperature, sea level and ocean heat content is less sensitive to these choices. Although, choices in pulse size, background concentration, and model lead to uncertainties, the most important and subjective choice to determine AGWP of CO2 and GWP is the time horizon.

In the Arctic, global warming is particularly pronounced so that we need to monitor its development continuously. On the other hand, the vast and hostile conditions make in situ observation difficult, so that available satellite observations should be exploited in the best possible way to extract geophysical information. Here, we give a résumé of the sea ice remote sensing efforts of the European Union's (EU) project DAMOCLES (Developing Arctic Modeling and Observing Capabilities for Long-term Environmental Studies). In order to better understand the seasonal variation of the microwave emission of sea ice observed from space, the monthly variations of the microwave emissivity of first-year and multi-year sea ice have been derived for the frequencies of the microwave imagers like AMSR-E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on EOS) and sounding frequencies of AMSU (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit), and have been used to develop an optimal estimation method to retrieve sea ice and atmospheric parameters simultaneously. In addition, a sea ice microwave emissivity model has been used together with a thermodynamic model to establish relations between the emissivities from 6 GHz to 50 GHz. At the latter frequency, the emissivity is needed for assimilation into atmospheric circulation models, but is more difficult to observe directly. The size of the snow grains on top of the sea ice influences both its albedo and the microwave emission. A method to determine the effective size of the snow grains from observations in the visible range (MODIS) is developed and demonstrated in an application on the Ross ice shelf. The bidirectional reflectivity distribution function (BRDF) of snow, which is an essential input parameter to the retrieval, has been measured in situ on Svalbard during the DAMOCLES campaign, and a BRDF model assuming aspherical particles is developed. Sea ice drift and deformation is derived from satellite observations with the scatterometer ASCAT (62.5 km grid spacing), with visible AVHRR observations (20 km), with the synthetic aperture radar sensor ASAR (10 km), and a multi-sensor product (62.5 km) with improved angular resolution (Continuous Maximum Cross Correlation, CMCC method) is presented. CMCC is also used to derive the sea ice deformation, important for formation of sea ice leads (diverging deformation) and pressure ridges (converging). The indirect determination of sea ice thickness from altimeter freeboard data requires knowledge of the ice density and snow load on sea ice. The relation between freeboard and ice thickness is investigated based on the airborne Sever expeditions conducted between 1928 and 1993.

Regular aerosol observations based on well-calibrated instruments have led to a better understanding of the aerosol radiative budget on Earth. In recent years, these instruments have played an important role in the determination of the increase of anthropogenic aerosols by means of long-term studies. Only few investigations regarding long-term trends of aerosol optical characteristics (e.g. aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and Ångström exponent (ÅE)) have been derived from ground-based observations. This paper aims to derive and discuss linear trends of AOT (440, 675, 870, and 1020 nm) and ÅE (440–870 nm) using AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) level 2.0 spectral observations. Additionally, temporal trends of coarse- and fine-mode dominant AOTs (CdAOT and FdAOT) have been estimated by applying an aerosol classification based on accurate ÅE and Ångström exponent difference (ÅED). In order to take into account the fact that cloud disturbance is having a significant influence on the trend analysis of aerosols, we introduce a weighted least squares regression depending on two weights: (1) monthly standard deviation (σt) and (2) number of observations per month (nt). Temporal increase of FdAOTs (440 nm) prevails over newly industrializing countries in East Asia (weighted trends; +6.23% yr−1 at Beijing) and active agricultural burning regions in South Africa (+1.89% yr−1 at Mongu). On the other hand, insignificant or negative trends for FdAOTs are detected over Western Europe (+0.25% yr−1 at Avignon and −2.29% yr−1 at Ispra) and North America (−0.52% yr−1 for GSFC and −0.01% yr−1 at MD_Science_Center). Over desert regions, both increase and decrease of CdAOTs (+3.37% yr−1 at Solar_Village and −1.18% yr−1 at Ouagadougou) are observed depending on meteorological conditions.

The scale of the ordinate axis of Fig. 4 on page 226 of PLB 746 (2015) 223 was incorrect. The new version of Fig. 4 (which is “Fig. 1” in the present note) with the correct ordinate axis is given here (upper part). The lower part shows the previous version. Five potential wells and barriers are shown. Considering a sequential process, two barriers are relevant for the sequential decay, with equal barriers for the symmetric cases with a smaller fragment at the center (in these cases only one barrier is shown). For the asymmetric case of 70Ni + 50Ca + 132Sn, two different barriers appear, denoted as (B1) and (B2), which correspond to the interactions of the middle cluster 50Ca with the outer nuclei 70Ni and 132Sn, respectively. In a sequential mechanism the separation of 132Sn from the other part via the barrier B2 has the smaller height, thus it is favored for the first step. For the second step the barrier (B1) between Ni and Ca, appears at smaller distances (dot-dashed curve) and is higher. The order of the barriers of the five channels is unchanged, compared to the figure in Ref. W. von Oertzen et al., Phys. Lett. B 746 (2015) 223.

The main purposes of the present paper are not only to investigate linear long-term trends of Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) at 443 and 555 nm over regions in Europe and South China, but also to show the uncertainty caused by cloud disturbance in the trend analysis of cloud-free aerosol. These research areas are the densely urbanised and often highly polluted regions. The study uses the Bremen AErosol Retrieval (BAER) and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) data for AOT retrievals in the specified regions from October 1997 to May 2008. In order to validate the individually retrieved AOTs and the corresponding trends, AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) level 2.0 data have been used. The retrieved AOTs were in good agreement with those of AERONET (0.79 ≤ R ≤ 0.88, 0.08 ≤ RMSD ≤ 0.13). The contamination of the aerosol retrievals and/or AERONET observations by thin clouds can significantly degrade the AOT and lead to statistically non-representative monthly-means, especially during cloudy seasons. Therefore an inter-correction method has been developed and applied. The "corrected" trends for both BAER SeaWiFS and AERONET AOT were similar and showed in average a relative difference of ∼25.19%. In general terms, negative trends (decrease of aerosol loading) were mainly observed over European regions, with magnitudes up to −0.00453 and −0.00484 yr−1 at 443 and 555 nm, respectively. In contrast, the trend in Pearl River Delta was positive, most likely attributed to rapid urbanization and industrialization. The magnitudes of AOT increased by +0.00761 and +0.00625 yr−1 respectively at 443 and 555 nm.