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Ships brighten low marine clouds from emissions of sulfur and aerosols, resulting in visible "ship tracks". In 2020, new shipping regulations mandated an ∼80% reduction in the allowed fuel sulfur content. Recent observations indicate that visible ship tracks have decreased. Model simulations indicate that since 2020 shipping regulations have induced a net radiative forcing of +0.12 Wm−2. Analysis of recent temperature anomalies indicates Northern Hemisphere surface temperature anomalies in 2022–2023 are correlated with observed cloud radiative forcing and the cloud radiative forcing is spatially correlated with the simulated radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping emission changes. Shipping emissions changes could be accelerating global warming. To better constrain these estimates, better access to ship position data and understanding of ship aerosol emissions are needed. Understanding the risks and benefits of emissions reductions and the difficultly in robust attribution highlights the large uncertainty in attributing proposed deliberate climate intervention. Plain Language Summary: Ships have a unique climate effect due to brightening of low marine clouds, resulting in visible "ship tracks". These ship tracks are due to clouds interacting with ship emissions, particularly sulfur. Recently, regulations have drastically reduced allowable ship sulfur emissions. This has resulted in a decrease in observable ship tracks. Modeling and observations indicate that the reduction in ship sulfur emissions could have slightly warmed the planet starting in 2020. These changes are remarkably co‐incident with observed patterns of cloud changes and may have accelerated global warming. Key Points: Recent regulations on ship sulfur emissions have decreased ship tracks and resulted in +0.12 Wm−2 of radiative forcingObserved cloud anomalies are correlated with observed ocean temperature anomalies and shipping radiative forcingReduced ship emissions may have accelerated global warming contributing to recent warm Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a great deal of interest in the underlying causes of efficiency droop in InGaN/GaN quantum well light emitting diodes, with several physical mechanisms being put forward to explain the phenomenon. In this paper we report on the observation of a reduction in the localization induced S-shape temperature dependence of the peak photoluminescence energy with increasing excitation power density. This S-shape dependence is a key fingerprint of carrier localization. Over the range of excitation power density where the depth of the S shape is reduced, we also observe a reduction in the integrated photoluminescence intensity per unit excitation power, i.e., efficiency droop. Hence, the onset of efficiency droop occurs at the same carrier density as the onset of carrier delocalization. We correlate these experimental results with the predictions of a theoretical model of the effects of carrier localization due to local variations in the concentration of the randomly distributed In atoms on the optical properties of InGaN/GaN quantum wells. On the basis of this comparison of theory with experiment we attribute the reduction in the S-shape temperature dependence to the saturation of the available localized states. We propose that this saturation of the localized states is a contributory factor to efficiency droop whereby nonlocalized carriers recombine non-radiatively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Localization lengths of the electrons and holes in InGaN/GaN quantum wells have been calculated using numerical solutions of the effective mass Schrödinger equation. We have treated the distribution of indium atoms as random and found that the resultant fluctuations in alloy concentration can localize the carriers. By using a locally varying indium concentration function we have calculated the contribution to the potential energy of the carriers from band gap fluctuations, the deformation potential, and the spontaneous and piezoelectric fields. We have considered the effect of well width fluctuations and found that these contribute to electron localization, but not to hole localization. We also simulate low temperature photoluminescence spectra and find good agreement with experiment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global shipping accounts for 13% of global emissions of SO 2 , which, once oxidized to sulfate aerosol, acts to cool the planet both directly by scattering sunlight and indirectly by increasing the albedo of clouds. This cooling due to sulfate aerosol offsets some of the warming effect of greenhouse gasses and is the largest uncertainty in determining the change in the Earth's radiative balance by human activity. Ship tracks-the visible manifestation of the indirect of effect of ship emissions on clouds as quasi-linear features-have long provided an opportunity to quantify these effects. However, they have been arduous to catalog and typically studied only in particular regions for short periods of time. Using a machine-learning algorithm to automate their detection we catalog more than 1 million ship tracks to provide a global climatology. We use this to investigate the effect of stringent fuel regulations introduced by the International Maritime Organization in 2020 on their global prevalence since then, while accounting for the disruption in global commerce caused by COVID-19. We find a marked, but clearly nonlinear, decline in ship tracks globally: An 80% reduction in SO[Formula: see text] emissions causes only a 25% reduction in the number of tracks detected.

Cloud reflectivity is sensitive to atmospheric aerosol concentrations because aerosols provide the condensation nuclei on which water condenses 1 . Increased aerosol concentrations due to human activity affect droplet number concentration, liquid water and cloud fraction 2 , but these changes are subject to large uncertainties 3 . Ship tracks, long lines of polluted clouds that are visible in satellite images, are one of the main tools for quantifying aerosol-cloud interactions 4 . However, only a small fraction of the clouds polluted by shipping show ship tracks 5,6 . Here we show that even when no ship tracks are visible in satellite images, aerosol emissions change cloud properties substantially. We develop a new method to quantify the effect of shipping on all clouds, showing a cloud droplet number increase and a more positive liquid water response when there are no visible tracks. We directly detect shipping-induced cloud property changes in the trade cumulus regions of the Atlantic, which are known to display almost no visible tracks. Our results indicate that previous studies of ship tracks were suffering from selection biases by focusing only on visible tracks from satellite imagery. The strong liquid water path response we find translates to a larger aerosol cooling effect on the climate, potentially masking a higher climate sensitivity than observed temperature trends would otherwise suggest., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

This data descriptor reports the main scientific values from General Circulation Models (GCMs) in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). The purpose of the GCM simulations has been to enhance the scientific understanding of how changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols, and incoming solar radiation perturb the Earth's radiation balance and its climate response in terms of changes in temperature and precipitation. Here we provide global and annual mean results for a large set of coupled atmospheric-ocean GCM simulations and a description of how to easily extract files from the dataset. The simulations consist of single idealized perturbations to the climate system and have been shown to achieve important insight in complex climate simulations. We therefore expect this data set to be valuable and highly used to understand simulations from complex GCMs and Earth System Models for various phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACIs) are considered to be the most uncertain driver of present-day radiative forcing due to human activities. The nonlinearity of cloud-state changes to aerosol perturbations make it challenging to attribute causality in observed relationships of aerosol radiative forcing. Using correlations to infer causality can be challenging when meteorological variability also drives both aerosol and cloud changes independently. Natural and anthropogenic aerosol perturbations from well-defined sources provide "opportunistic experiments" (also known as natural experiments) to investigate ACI in cases where causality may be more confidently inferred. These perturbations cover a wide range of locations and spatiotemporal scales, including point sources such as volcanic eruptions or industrial sources, plumes from biomass burning or forest fires, and tracks from individual ships or shipping corridors. We review the different experimental conditions and conduct a synthesis of the available satellite datasets and field campaigns to place these opportunistic experiments on a common footing, facilitating new insights and a clearer understanding of key uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing. Cloud albedo perturbations are strongly sensitive to background meteorological conditions. Strong liquid water path increases due to aerosol perturbations are largely ruled out by averaging across experiments. Opportunistic experiments have significantly improved process-level understanding of ACI, but it remains unclear how reliably the relationships found can be scaled to the global level, thus demonstrating a need for deeper investigation in order to improve assessments of aerosol radiative forcing and climate change., Competing Interests: Competing interests. At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. The peer-review process was guided by an independent editor, and the authors also have no other competing interests to declare.

The North Atlantic warming hole (NAWH) is referred to as a reduced warming, or even cooling, of the North Atlantic during an anthropogenic-driven global warming. A NAWH is predicted by climate models during the 21st century, and its pattern is already emerging in observations. Despite the known key role of the North Atlantic surface temperatures in setting the Northern Hemisphere climate, the mechanisms behind the NAWH are still not fully understood. Using state-of-the-art climate models, we show that anthropogenic aerosol forcing opposes the formation of the NAWH (by leading to a local warming) and delays its emergence by about 30 years. In agreement with previous studies, we also demonstrate that the relative warming of the North Atlantic under aerosol forcing is due to changes in ocean heat fluxes, rather than air-sea fluxes. These results suggest that the predicted reduction in aerosol forcing during the 21st century may accelerate the formation of the NAWH., (©2020. The Authors.)

The change in planetary albedo due to aerosol-cloud interactions during the industrial era is the leading source of uncertainty in inferring Earth's climate sensitivity to increased greenhouse gases from the historical record. The variable that controls aerosol-cloud interactions in warm clouds is droplet number concentration. Global climate models demonstrate that the present-day hemispheric contrast in cloud droplet number concentration between the pristine Southern Hemisphere and the polluted Northern Hemisphere oceans can be used as a proxy for anthropogenically driven change in cloud droplet number concentration. Remotely sensed estimates constrain this change in droplet number concentration to be between 8 cm -3 and 24 cm -3 By extension, the radiative forcing since 1850 from aerosol-cloud interactions is constrained to be -1.2 W⋅m -2 to -0.6 W⋅m -2 The robustness of this constraint depends upon the assumption that pristine Southern Ocean droplet number concentration is a suitable proxy for preindustrial concentrations. Droplet number concentrations calculated from satellite data over the Southern Ocean are high in austral summer. Near Antarctica, they reach values typical of Northern Hemisphere polluted outflows. These concentrations are found to agree with several in situ datasets. In contrast, climate models show systematic underpredictions of cloud droplet number concentration across the Southern Ocean. Near Antarctica, where precipitation sinks of aerosol are small, the underestimation by climate models is particularly large. This motivates the need for detailed process studies of aerosol production and aerosol-cloud interactions in pristine environments. The hemispheric difference in satellite estimated cloud droplet number concentration implies preindustrial aerosol concentrations were higher than estimated by most models., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest., (Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Global mean precipitation changes due to climate change were previously shown to be relatively small and well constrained by the energy budget. However, local precipitation changes can be much more significant. In this paper we propose that for large enough scales, for which the water budget is closed (precipitation [ P ] roughly equals evaporation [ E ]), changes in P approach the small global mean value. However, for smaller scales, for which P and E are not necessarily equal and convergence of water vapor still plays a role, changes in P could be much larger due to dynamical contributions. Using 40 years of two reanalysis data sets, 39 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and additional numerical simulations, we identify the scale of transition in the importance of the different terms in the water budget to precipitation to be ~3,500-4,000 km and demonstrate its relation to the spatial scale of precipitation changes under climate change., (©2019. The Authors.)

Precipitation plays a crucial role in the Earth's energy balance, the water cycle, and the global atmospheric circulation. Aerosols, by direct interaction with radiation and by serving as cloud condensation nuclei, may affect clouds and rain formation. This effect can be examined in terms of energetic constraints, that is, any aerosol-driven diabatic heating/cooling of the atmosphere will have to be balanced by changes in precipitation, radiative fluxes, or divergence of dry static energy. Using an aqua-planet general circulation model (GCM), we show that tropical and extratropical precipitation have contrasting responses to aerosol perturbations. This behavior can be explained by contrasting ability of the atmosphere to diverge excess dry static energy in the two different regions. It is shown that atmospheric heating in the tropics leads to large-scale thermally driven circulation and a large increase in precipitation, while the excess energy from heating in the extratropics is constrained due to the effect of the Coriolis force, causing the precipitation to decrease., (©2019. The Authors.)

A total of 16 global chemistry transport models and general circulation models have participated in this study; 14 models have been evaluated with regard to their ability to reproduce the near-surface observed number concentration of aerosol particles and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), as well as derived cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Model results for the period 2011-2015 are compared with aerosol measurements (aerosol particle number, CCN and aerosol particle composition in the submicron fraction) from nine surface stations located in Europe and Japan. The evaluation focuses on the ability of models to simulate the average across time state in diverse environments and on the seasonal and short-term variability in the aerosol properties. There is no single model that systematically performs best across all environments represented by the observations. Models tend to underestimate the observed aerosol particle and CCN number concentrations, with average normalized mean bias (NMB) of all models and for all stations, where data are available, of -24% and -35% for particles with dry diameters > 50 and > 120nm, as well as -36% and -34% for CCN at supersaturations of 0.2% and 1.0%, respectively. However, they seem to behave differently for particles activating at very low supersaturations (< 0.1 %) than at higher ones. A total of 15 models have been used to produce ensemble annual median distributions of relevant parameters. The model diversity (defined as the ratio of standard deviation to mean) is up to about 3 for simulated N 3 (number concentration of particles with dry diameters larger than 3 nm) and up to about 1 for simulated CCN in the extra-polar regions. A global mean reduction of a factor of about 2 is found in the model diversity for CCN at a supersaturation of 0.2% (CCN 0.2 ) compared to that for N 3 , maximizing over regions where new particle formation is important. An additional model has been used to investigate potential causes of model diversity in CCN and bias compared to the observations by performing a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) accounting for uncertainties in 26 aerosol-related model input parameters. This PPE suggests that biogenic secondary organic aerosol formation and the hygroscopic properties of the organic material are likely to be the major sources of CCN uncertainty in summer, with dry deposition and cloud processing being dominant in winter. Models capture the relative amplitude of the seasonal variability of the aerosol particle number concentration for all studied particle sizes with available observations (dry diameters larger than 50, 80 and 120 nm). The short-term persistence time (on the order of a few days) of CCN concentrations, which is a measure of aerosol dynamic behavior in the models, is underestimated on average by the models by 40% during winter and 20% in summer. In contrast to the large spread in simulated aerosol particle and CCN number concentrations, the CDNC derived from simulated CCN spectra is less diverse and in better agreement with CDNC estimates consistently derived from the observations (average NMB -13% and -22% for updraft velocities 0.3 and 0.6 ms -1 , respectively). In addition, simulated CDNC is in slightly better agreement with observationally derived values at lower than at higher updraft velocities (index of agreement 0.64 vs. 0.65). The reduced spread of CDNC compared to that of CCN is attributed to the sublinear response of CDNC to aerosol particle number variations and the negative correlation between the sensitivities of CDNC to aerosol particle number concentration ( ∂N d / ∂N a ) and to updraft velocity ( ∂N d / ∂w ). Overall, we find that while CCN is controlled by both aerosol particle number and composition, CDNC is sensitive to CCN at low and moderate CCN concentrations and to the updraft velocity when CCN levels are high. Discrepancies are found in sensitivities ∂N d / ∂N a and ∂N d /∂ w ; models may be predisposed to be too "aerosol sensitive" or "aerosol insensitive" in aerosol-cloud-climate interaction studies, even if they may capture average droplet numbers well. This is a subtle but profound finding that only the sensitivities can clearly reveal and may explain inter-model biases on the aerosol indirect effect., Competing Interests: Competing interests. The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.