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Abstract Renin-angiotensin system inhibitors (RASi), particularly angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) and angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs), are commonly used in the treatment of hypertension and are recommended for kidney protection. Uncertainty remains about the effectiveness of RASi being used as first-line antihypertensive therapy on eGFR maintenance compared to its alternatives, especially for those with no or early-stage chronic kidney disease (CKD). We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 19,499 individuals (mean age 64.1, 43.5% males) from primary care in Singapore with 4.5 median follow-up years. The study cohort included newly diagnosed individuals with hypertension (whose eGFR was mainly in CKD stages G1-G2) and initiated on ACEIs, ARBs, beta-blockers (BBs), calcium channel blockers (CCBs) or diuretics (Ds) as first-line antihypertensive monotherapy. We compared the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) curve before/after the drug initiation over time of patients under different drug classes and analyzed the time to declining to a more advanced stage CKD. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) was used to adjust for baseline confounding factors. Two key findings were observed. First, after initiating antihypertensive drugs, the eGFR almost maintained the same as the baseline in the first follow-up year, compared with dropping 3 mL/min/1.73 m2 per year before drug initiation. Second, ARBs were observed to be slightly inferior to ACEIs (HR = 1.14, 95% CI = (1.04, 1.23)) and other antihypertensive agents (HR = 1.10, 95% CI = (1.01, 1.20)) in delaying eGFR decline to a more advanced CKD stage in the study population. Our results showed that initiating antihypertensive agents can significantly maintain eGFR for those newly diagnosed patients with hypertension. However, RASi may not be superior to other antihypertensive agents in maintaining eGFR levels for non-CKD or early stages CKD patients.

Background Cardiovascular disease is a leading cause of global death. Prospective population-based studies have found that changes in retinal microvasculature are associated with the development of coronary artery disease. Recently, artificial intelligence deep learning (DL) algorithms have been developed for the fully automated assessment of retinal vessel calibres.Methods In this study, we validate the association between retinal vessel calibres measured by a DL system (Singapore I Vessel Assessment) and incident myocardial infarction (MI) and assess its incremental performance in discriminating patients with and without MI when added to risk prediction models, using a large UK Biobank cohort.Results Retinal arteriolar narrowing was significantly associated with incident MI in both the age, gender and fellow calibre-adjusted (HR=1.67 (95% CI: 1.19 to 2.36)) and multivariable models (HR=1.64 (95% CI: 1.16 to 2.32)) adjusted for age, gender and other cardiovascular risk factors such as blood pressure, diabetes mellitus (DM) and cholesterol status. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve increased from 0.738 to 0.745 (p=0.018) in the age–gender-adjusted model and from 0.782 to 0.787 (p=0.010) in the multivariable model. The continuous net reclassification improvements (NRIs) were significant in the age and gender-adjusted (NRI=21.56 (95% CI: 3.33 to 33.42)) and the multivariable models (NRI=18.35 (95% CI: 6.27 to 32.61)). In the subgroup analysis, similar associations between retinal arteriolar narrowing and incident MI were observed, particularly for men (HR=1.62 (95% CI: 1.07 to 2.46)), non-smokers (HR=1.65 (95% CI: 1.13 to 2.42)), patients without DM (HR=1.73 (95% CI: 1.19 to 2.51)) and hypertensive patients (HR=1.95 (95% CI: 1.30 to 2.93)) in the multivariable models.Conclusion Our results support DL-based retinal vessel measurements as markers of incident MI in a predominantly Caucasian population.

Abstract Evidence on the influence of patient characteristics on HbA1c treatment response for add-on medications in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) is unclear. This study aims to investigate the predictors of HbA1c treatment response for three add-on medications (sulfonylureas (SU), dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) and sodium–glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitor) in metformin monotherapy treated patients with T2D. This retrospective cohort study was conducted using the electronic health record data from six primary care clinics in Singapore. A total of 9748 adult patients with T2D on metformin monotherapy receiving SU, DPP-4 or SGLT-2 add-on were 1:1 propensity score matched to patients receiving other add-on medications. Patient demographics, laboratory results, diabetes related complications, comedications, and treatment response at two endpoints (HbA1c reduction ≥ 1% at 6th month, HbA1c goal attainment

Abstract Background A recent prospective demonstrated that cardiovascular risk factors in early childhood were associated with later cardiovascular events. However, the impact of secondhand smoke (SHS) on children is unclear. The aims of this study is to determine the effects of SHS exposure on the retinal vasculature of children. Methods This is a population-based cross-sectional study of children aged 6 to 8 years. All participants received comprehensive ophthalmic examinations and retinal photography. Data on SHS exposure was derived from a validated questionnaire. A validated deep-learning system was used to automatically estimate retinal arteriolar and venular calibers from retinal photographs. Associations of quantitative retinal vessel caliber values with SHS exposure, number of smokers in the household, and total number of cigarettes smoked were determined by analyses of covariance (ANCOVA) after adjusting for potential confounders. Test of trend was determined by treating categorical risk factors as continuous ordinal variables. Results Here we show children exposed to SHS have wider retinal arteriolar (CRAE 152.1 µm vs. 151.3 µm, p

Abstract Type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a medical condition in which oral medications avail to patients to curb their hyperglycaemia after failed dietary therapy. However, individual responses to the prescribed pharmacotherapy may differ due to their clinical profiles, comorbidities, lifestyles and medical adherence. One approach is to identify similar patients within the same community to predict their likely response to the prescribed diabetes medications. This study aims to present an evidence-based diabetes medication recommendation system (DMRS) underpinned by patient similarity analytics. The DMRS was developed using 10-year electronic health records of 54,933 adult patients with T2DM from six primary care clinics in Singapore. Multiple clinical variables including patient demographics, comorbidities, laboratory test results, existing medications, and trajectory patterns of haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) were used to identify similar patients. The DMRS was evaluated on four groups of patients with comorbidities such as hyperlipidaemia (HLD) and hypertension (HTN). Recommendations were assessed using hit ratio which represents the percentage of patients with at least one recommended sets of medication matches exactly the diabetes prescriptions in both the type and dosage. Recall, precision, and mean reciprocal ranking of the recommendation against the diabetes prescriptions in the EHR records were also computed. Evaluation against the EHR prescriptions revealed that the DMRS recommendations can achieve hit ratio of 81% for diabetes patients with no comorbidity, 84% for those with HLD, 78% for those with HTN, and 75% for those with both HLD and HTN. By considering patients’ clinical profiles and their trajectory patterns of HbA1c, the DMRS can provide an individualized recommendation that resembles the actual prescribed medication and dosage. Such a system is useful as a shared decision-making tool to assist clinicians in selecting the appropriate medications for patients with T2DM.

Abstract Background Clinical trials have demonstrated that initiating oral anti-diabetic drugs (OADs) significantly reduce glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels. However, variability in lifestyle modifications and OAD adherence impact on their actual effect on glycemic control. Furthermore, evidence on dose adjustments and discontinuation of OAD on HbA1c is lacking. This study aims to use real-world data to determine the effect of OAD initiation, up-titration, down-titration, and discontinuation on HbA1c levels, among Asian patients managed in primary care. Methods A retrospective cohort study over a 5-year period, from Jan 2015 to Dec 2019 was conducted on a cohort of multi-ethnic adult Asian patients with clinical diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) managed by a network of primary care clinics in Singapore. Nine OADs from five different classes (biguanides, sulphonyurea, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 [DPP-4] inhibitors, sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 [SGLT-2] inhibitors, and alpha-glucosidase inhibitors) were evaluated. Patients were grouped into “No OAD”, “Non-titrators,” and “Titrators” cohorts based on prescribing patterns. For the “Titrators” cohort, the various OAD titrations were identified. Subsequently, a descriptive analysis of HbA1c values before and after each titration was performed to compute a mean difference for each unique titration identified. Results Among the cohort of 57,910 patients, 43,338 of them had at least one OAD titration, with a total of 76,990 pairs of HbA1c values associated with an OAD titration. There were a total of 206 unique OAD titrations. Overall, initiation of OADs resulted in a reduction of HbA1c by 3 to 12 mmol/mol (0.3 to 1.1%), respectively. These results were slightly lower than those reported in clinical trials of 6 to 14 mmol/mol (0.5 to 1.25%). The change of HbA1c levels due to up-titration, down-titration, and discontinuation were −1 to −8 mmol/mol (−0.1 to −0.7%), +1 to 7 mmol/mol (+0.1 to +0.6%), and +2 to 11 mmol/mol (+0.2 to +1.0%), respectively. The HbA1c lowering effect of initiating newer OADs, namely DPP-4 inhibitors and SGLT-2 inhibitors was 8 to 11 mmol/mol (0.7 to 0.9%) and 7 to 11 mmol/mol (0.6 to 1.0%), respectively. Conclusion The real-world data on Asians with T2DM in this study show that the magnitudes of OAD initiation and dose titration are marginally lower than the results from clinical trials. During shared decision-making in selecting treatment options, the results enable physicians to communicate realistic expectation of the effect of oral medications on the glycemic control of their patients in primary care.

Abstract Background Clinical risk prediction models (CRPMs) use patient characteristics to estimate the probability of having or developing a particular disease and/or outcome. While CRPMs are gaining in popularity, they have yet to be widely adopted in clinical practice. The lack of explainability and interpretability has limited their utility. Explainability is the extent of which a model’s prediction process can be described. Interpretability is the degree to which a user can understand the predictions made by a model. Methods The study aimed to demonstrate utility of patient similarity analytics in developing an explainable and interpretable CRPM. Data was extracted from the electronic medical records of patients with type-2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension and dyslipidaemia in a Singapore public primary care clinic. We used modified K-nearest neighbour which incorporated expert input, to develop a patient similarity model on this real-world training dataset (n = 7,041) and validated it on a testing dataset (n = 3,018). The results were compared using logistic regression, random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM) models from the same dataset. The patient similarity model was then implemented in a prototype system to demonstrate the identification, explainability and interpretability of similar patients and the prediction process. Results The patient similarity model (AUROC = 0.718) was comparable to the logistic regression (AUROC = 0.695), RF (AUROC = 0.764) and SVM models (AUROC = 0.766). We packaged the patient similarity model in a prototype web application. A proof of concept demonstrated how the application provided both quantitative and qualitative information, in the form of patient narratives. This information was used to better inform and influence clinical decision-making, such as getting a patient to agree to start insulin therapy. Conclusions Patient similarity analytics is a feasible approach to develop an explainable and interpretable CRPM. While the approach is generalizable, it can be used to develop locally relevant information, based on the database it searches. Ultimately, such an approach can generate a more informative CRPMs which can be deployed as part of clinical decision support tools to better facilitate shared decision-making in clinical practice.

Abstract Background Clinical trials have demonstrated that either initiating or up-titrating a statin dose substantially reduce Low-Density Lipoprotein-Cholesterol (LDL-C) levels. However, statin adherence in actual practice tends to be suboptimal, leading to diminished effectiveness. This study aims to use real-world data to determine the effect on LDL-C levels and LDL-C goal attainment rates, when selected statins are titrated in Asian patients. Methods A retrospective cohort study over a 5-year period, from April 2014 to March 2019 was conducted on a cohort of multi-ethnic adult Asian patients with clinical diagnosis of Dyslipidaemia in a primary care clinic in Singapore. The statins were classified into low-intensity (LI), moderate-intensity (MI) and high-intensity (HI) groups according to the 2018 American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) Blood Cholesterol Guidelines. Patients were grouped into “No statin”, “Non-titrators” and “Titrators” cohorts based on prescribing patterns. For the “Titrators” cohort, the mean percentage change in LDL-C and absolute change in LDL-C goal attainment rates were computed for each permutation of statin intensity titration. Results Among the cohort of 11,499 patients, with a total of 266,762 visits, there were 1962 pairs of LDL-C values associated with a statin titration. Initiation of LI, MI and HI statin resulted in a lowering of LDL-C by 21.6% (95%CI = 18.9–24.3%), 28.9% (95%CI = 25.0–32.7%) and 25.2% (95%CI = 12.8–37.7%) respectively. These were comparatively lower than results from clinical trials (30 to 63%). The change of LDL-C levels due to up-titration, down-titration, and discontinuation were − 12.4% to − 28.9%, + 13.2% to + 24.6%, and + 18.1% to + 32.1% respectively. The improvement in LDL-C goal attainment ranged from 26.5% to 47.1% when statin intensity was up-titrated. Conclusion In this study based on real-world data of Asian patients in primary care, it was shown that although statin titration substantially affected LDL-C levels and LDL-C goal attainment rates, the magnitude was lower than results reported from clinical trials. These results should be taken into consideration and provide further insight to clinicians when making statin adjustment recommendations in order to achieve LDL-C targets in clinical practice, particularly for Asian populations.

Abstract Deep learning (DL) has been shown to be effective in developing diabetic retinopathy (DR) algorithms, possibly tackling financial and manpower challenges hindering implementation of DR screening. However, our systematic review of the literature reveals few studies studied the impact of different factors on these DL algorithms, that are important for clinical deployment in real-world settings. Using 455,491 retinal images, we evaluated two technical and three image-related factors in detection of referable DR. For technical factors, the performances of four DL models (VGGNet, ResNet, DenseNet, Ensemble) and two computational frameworks (Caffe, TensorFlow) were evaluated while for image-related factors, we evaluated image compression levels (reducing image size, 350, 300, 250, 200, 150 KB), number of fields (7-field, 2-field, 1-field) and media clarity (pseudophakic vs phakic). In detection of referable DR, four DL models showed comparable diagnostic performance (AUC 0.936-0.944). To develop the VGGNet model, two computational frameworks had similar AUC (0.936). The DL performance dropped when image size decreased below 250 KB (AUC 0.936, 0.900, p

Patient similarity analytics has emerged as an essential tool to identify cohorts of patients who have similar clinical characteristics to some specific patient of interest. In this study, we propose a patient similarity measure called D3K that incorporates domain knowledge and data-driven insights. Using the electronic health records (EHRs) of 169,434 patients with either diabetes, hypertension or dyslipidaemia (DHL), we construct patient feature vectors containing demographics, vital signs, laboratory test results, and prescribed medications. We discretize the variables of interest into various bins based on domain knowledge and make the patient similarity computation to be aligned with clinical guidelines. Key findings from this study are: (1) D3K outperforms baseline approaches in all seven sub-cohorts; (2) our domain knowledge-based binning strategy outperformed the traditional percentile-based binning in all seven sub-cohorts; (3) there is substantial agreement between D3K and physicians (κ = 0.746), indicating that D3K can be applied to facilitate shared decision making. This is the first study to use patient similarity analytics on a cardiometabolic syndrome-related dataset sourced from medical institutions in Singapore. We consider patient similarity among patient cohorts with the same medical conditions to develop localized models for personalized decision support to improve the outcomes of a target patient.

Summary: Background: Radical measures are required to identify and reduce blindness due to diabetes to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. Therefore, we evaluated the accuracy of an artificial intelligence (AI) model using deep learning in a population-based diabetic retinopathy screening programme in Zambia, a lower-middle-income country. Methods: We adopted an ensemble AI model consisting of a combination of two convolutional neural networks (an adapted VGGNet architecture and a residual neural network architecture) for classifying retinal colour fundus images. We trained our model on 76 370 retinal fundus images from 13 099 patients with diabetes who had participated in the Singapore Integrated Diabetic Retinopathy Program, between 2010 and 2013, which has been published previously. In this clinical validation study, we included all patients with a diagnosis of diabetes that attended a mobile screening unit in five urban centres in the Copperbelt province of Zambia from Feb 1 to June 31, 2012. In our model, referable diabetic retinopathy was defined as moderate non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy or worse, diabetic macular oedema, and ungradable images. Vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy comprised severe non-proliferative and proliferative diabetic retinopathy. We calculated the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity for referable diabetic retinopathy, and sensitivities of vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy and diabetic macular oedema compared with the grading by retinal specialists. We did a multivariate analysis for systemic risk factors and referable diabetic retinopathy between AI and human graders. Findings: A total of 4504 retinal fundus images from 3093 eyes of 1574 Zambians with diabetes were prospectively recruited. Referable diabetic retinopathy was found in 697 (22·5%) eyes, vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy in 171 (5·5%) eyes, and diabetic macular oedema in 249 (8·1%) eyes. The AUC of the AI system for referable diabetic retinopathy was 0·973 (95% CI 0·969–0·978), with corresponding sensitivity of 92·25% (90·10–94·12) and specificity of 89·04% (87·85–90·28). Vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy sensitivity was 99·42% (99·15–99·68) and diabetic macular oedema sensitivity was 97·19% (96·61–97·77). The AI model and human graders showed similar outcomes in referable diabetic retinopathy prevalence detection and systemic risk factors associations. Both the AI model and human graders identified longer duration of diabetes, higher level of glycated haemoglobin, and increased systolic blood pressure as risk factors associated with referable diabetic retinopathy. Interpretation: An AI system shows clinically acceptable performance in detecting referable diabetic retinopathy, vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy, and diabetic macular oedema in population-based diabetic retinopathy screening. This shows the potential application and adoption of such AI technology in an under-resourced African population to reduce the incidence of preventable blindness, even when the model is trained in a different population. Funding: National Medical Research Council Health Service Research Grant, Large Collaborative Grant, Ministry of Health, Singapore; the SingHealth Foundation; and the Tanoto Foundation.