Search

Purpose: This study forecasts the government expenditure components in Nigeria, including recurrent and capital expenditures for 2021 and 2022, based on data from 1981 to 2020. Design/methodology/approach: The study employs statistical/econometric problems using the Feasible Quasi Generalized Least Squares approach. Expenditure forecasts involve three simulation scenarios: (1) do nothing where the economy follows its natural path; (2) an optimistic scenario, where the economy grows by specific percentages and (3) a pessimistic scenario that defines specific economic contractions. Findings: The estimation model is informed by Wagner's law specifying a positive link between economic activities and public spending. Model estimation affirms the expected positive relationship and is relevant for generating forecasts. The out-of-sample results show that a higher proportion of the total government expenditure (7.6% in 2021 and 15.6% in 2022) is required to achieve a predefined growth target (5%). Originality/value: This study offers empirical evidence that specifically requires Nigeria to invest a ratio of 3 to 1 or more in capital expenditure to recurrent expenditure for the economy to be guided on growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Economic Research & Business Administration is the property of Al-Farabi Kazakh National University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

We examine the association between economic development and two measures of public spending on education: the “national effort” (public spending on education as a proportion of GDP) and “budget share” (public spending on education as a proportion of total government spending). Using panel data for a large sample of countries from 1989 to 2015, we compare mean levels of national effort and budget share measures for economically and politically distinct groups of countries. We find that economically more developed (richer) countries are characterised by a higher national effort and a lower budget share than less economically developed countries. This implies that richer countries, on average, have larger public sectors than poorer countries, consistent with Wagner’s law and Baumol’s “cost disease” hypothesis.

This study endeavors to examine the validity of Wagner's Law, which has received considerable attention in recent years. We develop a panel dataset of 20 countries, taking five countries from each income group defined by the World Bank, for the 1991–2018 periods. Five different versions of the law are tested using this dataset. We add further depth to the model by involve the government's revenue and the volume of trade as independent variables. We inquire into the subsistence of cross-sectional dependence. To determine the order of integration, we conduct LLC, IPS, and CADF tests. The results show that the dataset has I (0) and I (1) series, and no series is found to be of I (2). Then we perform the panel ARDL test, and calculate PMG and DFE estimates. We use the Hausman test to choose among the estimates. In each version of the law, the error correction term indicates the presence of both long-term associations within the variables and an economic convergence process. However, we find no evidence to support the law for any version. Additionally, we conduct the panel cointegration tests, such as Westerlund, Pedroni and Kao. These cointegration tests generate results accordant with the ARDL findings.

This article explores the connection between government budget expenditures and economic growth in Uzbekistan. It analyzes various theoretical perspectives and empirical studies on the topic, which have produced mixed results. To contribute to the understanding of this relationship in Uzbekistan, the study applies statistical analysis using the Engle-Granger Cointegration model and the Granger causality test models. The findings reveal a positive and significant correlation between government spending and GDP, indicating that increased government expenditures can contribute to economic growth. These results align with the principles of Keynesian economics and Wagner's Law. It is important to consider the country's specific context and policies when interpreting these findings. [Extracted from the article]

Copyright of Afyon Kocatepe University Journal of Social Sciences / Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi is the property of Afyon Kocatepe University (AKU) Sosyal Bilimler Enstitusu and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

We examine the association between economic development and two measures of public spending on education: the "national effort" (public spending on education as a proportion of GDP) and "budget share" (public spending on education as a proportion of total government spending). Using panel data for a large sample of countries from 1989 to 2015, we compare mean levels of national effort and budget share measures for economically and politically distinct groups of countries. We find that economically more developed (richer) countries are characterised by a higher national effort and a lower budget share than less economically developed countries. This implies that richer countries, on average, have larger public sectors than poorer countries, consistent with Wagner's law and Baumol's "cost disease" hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the relationship between public expenditures and economic growth was examined within the scope of Wagner's law and Keynesian hypothesis in Turkey for the period 2006:1-2021:4 via the Engle-Granger cointegration test and the Granger causality test. In the study, total, transfer, investment, current, defense, education, health, and social protection expenditures were preferred as proxies of public expenditures. The relationship of each of the variables with economic growth was examined separately. According to the the Engle-Granger cointegration test results, it was determined that there is a cointegration relationship between economic growth and total, current, transfer and social protection expenditures. The Error Correction model findings have shown that both Wagner's law and Keynesian hypothesis are valid, but they vary according to the type of expenditure. The Granger causality test results have indicated that Keynesian hypothesis could be confirmed only for education and investment expenditures in the short run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examined whether the Wagner's law that represents the long-run relationship between income and public expenditure holds at the subnational level in India. It also examines whether the Wagner's law is revenue expenditure specific or capital expenditure specific in the context of Indian sub-nationals. The paper covers 21 Indian States and a time period of 40 years, from 1980-81 to 2019-20. In this study we have assessed six pairs of relationships among state-level income, public expenditures, revenue expenditure, capital outlay, public expenditure on economic services, public expenditure on social services, and expenditure on the developmental sector. The validity of the law was examined for nine different panels of states broadly under income categories and geographical regions. Unlike first-generation panel techniques, which fail to account for the aspects of cross-sectional independence and heterogeneity, the present study tests the validity of the Wagner's law using the second-generation panel unit root method and cointegration approach. The analysis adopted Panel Dynamic Ordinary Least Square to test the evidence of Wagner's law hypothesis. The findings reveal that Indian states are heterogeneous in terms of public expenditure, and there exists cross-sectional dependence. There also exists a long-run cointegrating relation between state-level income and state-level public expenditure. For the full sample, while this study finds holding Wagner's law, there is a mixed validity of the law in different panels across income categories and regions. In addition, it is observed that the validity of Wagner's law in the Indian Subnational context is mainly driven by the high-income major states, and it is more capital outlay centric. To conclude, these responsive affiliations comprehend the effectiveness of public expenditure as a fiscal policy instrument in stimulating economic growth and the contribution of economic growth in the budget exercise at the subnational level. Therefore, subnational governments need to be more strategic to ensure growth momentum as the public expenditure indirectly and directly causes the living standard and welfare of the people in the economy. It must be acknowledged that India adopted fiscal rules in 2005, which may limit the procyclical fiscal policy during the swings in the business cycle, and thus have implications for budget exercises at the subnational level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Today, the gradual increase in public expenditures in almost all countries has led to the question of what the size of the public sector should be in the economy. The effects of the size of the public sector on the economy of countries are seen as an important issue. The purpose of this study is to investigate the causal relationship between public expenditures and economic growth in newly industrialized countries (NIC) for the 1981-2021 period. and to determine which of Wagner's law and the Keynesian hypothesis is correct. The causal relationship between the variables was analyzed with the Granger and Fourier Granger causality tests. According to the findings, bidirectional causality between public expenditures and economic growth was found for Brazil, South Africa, and Thailand, and unidirectional causality from economic growth to public expenditures for other countries. In general, it has been determined that Wagner's law is valid in newly industrialized countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the determinants and interrelationship of components of government spending using data for up to 142 countries over the period 1990–2017. We make use of two‐way fixed effect estimator with Driscoll‐Kraay standard errors, which accounts for cross‐sectional dependence and a system generalized method of moments estimator to examine the determinants of components of spending. We then adopt the seemingly unrelated regression estimation technique to examine the interrelationship between government spending types. From our results, there is little evidence of Wagner's Law as the coefficient of income is negative and statistically significant for most measures of spending. Further, we find that a reduction in overall government spending tends to reduce the share of almost all components of government spending except spending on economic services, non‐productive spending, and spending on transfers. In examining the interrelationship between government spending types, we find that government spending types under the Classification of Functions of Government (COFOG) classification, which may be described as "pure public goods" and "merit public good provision," have complementary relationships. However, government spending on pure public good vs merit public goods, pure public goods vs economic services, and pure public goods vs transfers could be considered substitutes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Financial Politic & Economic Reviews / Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar is the property of Journal of Financial Politic & Economic Reviews / Finans Politik & Ekomomik Yorumlar and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Adopting an international historical perspective, this study aims to identify the main empirical regularities in the long-run growth pattern of government expenditure. The application of parametric and non-parametric analyses to a sample of developed countries observed over the period 1880–2018 allows us to detect two main findings. The first is that, beyond the long-term growth of government expenditures in absolute terms, there is evidence for three expansionary long waves corresponding to the booms before and during the twentieth century's two world wars, along with the 'golden age of public sector intervention'. The latter refers to the decline in cross-country heterogeneity in the trends and composition of absolute growth of government expenditure since the 1960s. The 'ratchet phenomenon' in the pre-WWII period and the shift in ideological focus from market to government failures in the last decades of the twentieth century provide explanations that complement Wagner's law and are consistent with the observed long-term evolution of the growth of government expenditure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzes the dynamics between public expenditure and economic growth in Peru for 1980Q1–2021Q4. We used quarterly time series of real GDP, public consumption expenditure, public expenditure, and the share of public expenditure to output. The variables were transformed into natural logarithms, wherein only the logarithm of public expenditure to output ratio is stationary and the others are non-stationary I 1 . The study of stationary time series assesses whether Wagner's law, the Keynesian hypothesis, the feedback hypothesis, or the neutrality hypothesis is valid for the Peruvian case according to Granger causality. We found cointegration between real GDP and public expenditure, and public consumption expenditure and real GDP. Estimating error correction and autoregressive distributed lag models, we concluded that Wagner's law and the Keynesian hypothesis are valid in the Peruvian case, expressed as dynamic processes that allow us to obtain short-run and long-run impacts, permitting the mutual sustainability of economic growth and public expenditure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Which countries have the world's smallest and the world's largest governments? One-fifth of the Economic Freedom of the World index is a subindex scoring the size of government for countries across the world. This subindex is inclusive of the three dimensions of government spending, the top marginal tax rate, and the government ownership of the economy. Measured in this manner, the "smallest" governments are, generally, weak or fragile states. This paper recognizes Wagner's law, the empirical regularity that wealthier countries tend to spend more as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP). It then performs a novel adjustment to the size of government data to account for Wagner's law, re-scores and re-ranks the countries, and explores the results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Social Sciences Research / Sosyal Bilimler Arastirmalari Dergisi is the property of ODU Journal of Social Sciences Research and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Purpose – One of the main theories regarding the relationship between government expenditure and gross domestic product (GDP) is Wagner’s law. This law was developed in the late-19th century by Adolph Wagner (1835–1917), a prominent German economist, and depicts that an increase in government expenditure is a feature often associated with progressive states. This paper aims to examine the validity of Wagner’s law in Egypt for 1960–2018. The relationship between real government expenditure and real GDP is tested using three versions of Wagner’s law. Design/methodology/approach – To test the validity of Wagner in Egypt, law time-series analysis is used. The methodology used in this paper is: unit-root tests for stationarity, Johansen cointegration approach, error-correction model and Granger causality. Findings – The results provide strong evidence of long-term relationship between GDP and government expenditure. Moreover, the causal relationship is found to be bi-directional. Hence, this study provides support for Wagner’s law in the examined context. Research limitations/implications – It should be noted, however, that there are some limitations to this study. For instance, in this paper, the government’s size was measured through government consumption expenditure rather than government expenditure due to data availability, which does not fully capture the government size. Moreover, the data available was limited and does not fully cover the earliest stages of industrialization and urbanization for Egypt. Furthermore, although time-series analysis provides a more contextualized results and conclusions, the obtained conclusions suffer from their limited generalizability. Originality/value – This paper aims to specifically make a contribution to the empirical literature for Wagner’s law, by testing the Egyptian data using time-series econometric techniques for the longest time period examined so far, which is 1960–2018.

The empirical relationship between public expenditure and economic growth can be analysed from different viewpoints. This study focuses on the empirical testing of the validity of Wagner's law for the Indonesian economy. The high economic growth in the sample period of 1980–2014 makes the law likely to be applicable to Indonesia. Causality and cointegration techniques are used. A key finding in our vector autoregression analysis is unidirectional causality running from GDP and price to government expenditure, supporting Wagner's law. In the case of price and government expenditure, this study also finds evidence of a long-run cointegrating relationship, which appears stable and supports unidirectional causality. The vast majority of the deviations from the equilibrium relationship between government expenditure and price are found to be transitory shocks to government expenditure. Most deviations also appear significantly countercyclical to economic activity, suggesting that government expenditure does play a role in economic stabilisation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article considers the influence of the complexity of the social system on the growth of financial costs for the maintenance of the central management system. The subject of the article is Professor Dmitry Sorokin’s theory that Russia cannot be a world technological leader due to objective reasons: a large territory, a severe climate, a multinational and multi-confessional composition of the population. These conditions predetermine a strong power vertical and increased financial costs, leading to the bureaucratic despotism and worse effectiveness of market innovation mechanisms. The relevance of the problem is in the need to clarify the management capabilities and limitations of regimes with strong centralized power. This issue is becoming more urgent due to the fact Wagner’s law, which requires faster growth of public expenditure compared to the economy, has ceased to operate. The article aims to theoretically illustrate and to test the theory by D. Sorokin. On this purpose, the authors built a simple theoretical model of economic growth with an institutional factor reflecting the properties of the control system. The novelty of the approach consists in building an institutional function that includes management costs for maintaining the internal integrity of the country and its external security, the management potential (“strength”) of the central government and the mechanism of market selfgovernment. The initial driving force of the model is the growing complexity of the managed system, which, by D. Zolo’s complexity theory, leads to the wide spread of authoritarian political regimes. The analysis of the model and computational experiments allowed to establish the conditions when Sorokin’s theory is valid and when not. The calculations have led to the conclusion that even a tough authoritarian rule can stimulate the country’s economic development, provided that the current system of central government is highly efficient and low in financial capacity.

This research paper analyses the relationship between gross domestic product and public expenditures in nominal terms. The analysis is being done by using the standard Peacock-Wiseman specification of the Wagner’s law and provides the results for the Visegrád Four countries, i.e. the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland and Hungary. We aim to answer a question concerning the existence of a long and/or short-term relationship between the nominal GDP and nominal public expenditures, which consist of current and capital expenditures. To address this question, we employ the VAR model, the Johansen Cointegration test and the VEC model. We study a period between the first quarter of 1999 and the second quarter of 2019 and find out mixed results for the Visegrád Four countries.

Using time-series data from 1989 to 2018, this study examines the determinants of public education expenditure in the Philippines. Following Wagner's law, this paper investigated the relationship of gross domestic product per capita, unemployment rate, urban population growth, and lagged public education expenditure to public education expenditure. The ordinary least squares (OLS) method was used to determine the significance of the variables, and statistical tests were conducted to measure the overall significance of the model. The findings show that gross domestic product per capita and lagged public education expenditure were positively significant determinants contributing to the Philippines' growth of public education expenditure. On the other hand, the unemployment rate and urbanization growth were insignificant and did not contribute to the increase in expenditure. The results also provided strong evidence on the relationship between GDP per capita and public education expenditure, supporting Wagner's law in the Philippine context. Finally, this study recommends that policymakers review budget allocation and utilization to achieve wider education accessibility and better quality of education in the Philippines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wagner’s law relates the positive relation between public spending and economic activity, where greater economic activity leads to increased public spending. Using Panel unit root, cointegration, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Granger causality procedures this paper seeks to test the validity of Wagner’s law for a group of sixteen sub-Saharan African countries during the period 2002-2015. The findings show validity for Wagner’s law when “productive” government expenditure is taken as the measure of public spending. Compared to “productive” government expenditure, total government expenditure shows weaker evidence for the validity of Wagner’s law. Therefore governments in SSA should direct more spending towards productive expenditures if they seek to exploit growth benefits in the long run.

Wagner’s law and Keynes’ hypothesis has long been debated in economics. In this paper, we test the income-expenditure hypothesis for eighty-one of Turkey’s provinces for the period 1992 to 2013 using panel data analysis. For this purpose, the validity of these hypotheses is tested by applying recent panel cointegration and causality techniques, allowing for cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity between regions. Under the presence of cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity, the level of integration of the variables was tested by means of the cross-sectionally augmented Dickey-Fuller test, the presence of long-run relationship of the variables was tested with the Westerlund-Edgerton Lagrange multiplier bootstrap test, long-run cointegration coefficients were estimated with the Eberhardt-Bond panel augmented mean group method, and finally causality relationship was defined by the Dumitrescu-Hurlin test. The results of this study provide strong support for the validity of Wagner’s law and Keynes’ hypothesis for Turkey.

The paper aims at examining the causal relationship between economic growth and government expenditure in selected MENA countries over the period of 1987–2017. Unlike previous studies, we examine the causality in both panel data and time series data to get a clear idea about the causal relationships individually and as a full sample. We also revisited the causal relationship between the two variables within the framework of frequency domain causality. Our findings support the neutrality hypotheses in the short-run term for most of the countries. Thus, economic growth and government expenditure at most frequency levels evolve independently. On the other hand, we found the support of Wagner’s law, Keynes view, neutrality and bidirectional hypotheses in the long term.

The under-developed economies spend more on public goods and services. The low income states in India spend relatively more on public goods and services as compared to middleincome and high-income states. These low-income Indian states, however, perform relatively poor in socio-economic indicators such as poverty, health facilities, education, etc. This raises a question that why low-income states in India are more deprived despite of high public expenditure. The question has been addressed by testing the Wagner's law for low-income states in India for the period 1980-81 to 2014-15. Wagner's law states that public expenditure increases with rise in state activity. The study considers development expenditure-social sector and economic services. Each head is further categorized into revenue and capital expenditure. Since the study uses time series data for each panel, IM-Pasaran test is used for testing stationarity, and ARDL Model is used for obtaining long-term estimates of Wagner's law. We find that on average low income states in India tend to spend more on social sector and economic services as the output increases. However, the analysis of individual low-income states is different. Results of Odisha and West Bengal validate Wagner's law, public expenditure on both social sector and economic services had increased with output. In Rajasthan, expenditure on social sector is revenue in nature and expenditure in economic services is dominated by capital outlay (elasticity less than one). Although rest of the low income states spends on social sector and economic services with growth in output, the expenditure is revenue in nature. The results indicate that majority of low income states spends more on maintenance of available social services and less on creation of infrastructure. The expenditure on creation of infrastructure is necessary for the development of industries and agriculture in under-developed economies, and thus, capital expenditure is crucial for overall wellbeing of society. The low-income states in India had spent only 37% (average) of total expenditure on capital outlay of economic services during the period from 1980-81 to 2014-15. Apart from having revenue expenditure on social services, low-income states should focus on the development of economic services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of International Social Research is the property of Journal of International Social Research and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Balkan & Near Eastern Journal of Social Sciences (BNEJSS) is the property of Balkan & Near Eastern Journal of Social Sciences (BNEJSS) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Existing literature on the link between government expenditure and economic growth shows mixed results. This paper, while analysing the impact of government expenditure on economic growth using the ARDL framework, also investigates whether the difference in data types is one of the reasons for the conflicting findings reported in the literature about Wagner's law and Keynesian hypothesis. We use Sri Lanka as a case study for this analysis and use three different forms of model specifications at the aggregate and disaggregated (sectoral) levels. Results indicate that both Wagner's and Keynesian's propositions are supported by the Sri Lankan data in the long-run for all three model specifications and the results are inconclusive in the short-run. This suggests that Wagner's law and Keynesian hypothesis are sensitive to the data type used and the results could be different depending on whether the analysis is made in the short-run or long-run. Capital and recurrent expenditures are found to have a positive effect on economic growth in the short-run as well as long-run. At the disaggregated level, expenditure on agriculture and health positively impact economic growth in the long-run, while welfare expenditure has a negative effect. These findings provide important insights for policymakers to consider when allocating sectoral level expenditure budget. This study also provides insights on allocating government expenditure towards achieving United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals which countries across the globe are aiming to achieve by 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is essential to study and analyse government expenditure in order to identify trends in their development. Periodic reporting of trends in government expenditure allows economic agents to plan their business actions on the basis of objective information, reducing the uncertainty of the economic system. In addition, measuring the changes in the structure of government expenditures (especially the expenditures of the Central Government subsector by function of Classification of the functions of government (COFOG)) allows revealing the priorities in the provision of public goods. The goal of the article is to make a comparative analysis of the expenditure of the subsector "Central government" by functions of COFOG of Bulgaria and Greece and on this basis to reveal the trends in their development, as well as to highlight the differences in spending policies between the two countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Emerging Economies & Policy is the property of JOEEP: Journal of Emerging Economies & Policy and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Using disaggregated data based on the classification of functions of government (COFOG), this study seeks to verify the Keynesian view versus Wagner's law on the relationship between government expenditure and output, considering Turkey as a case study. To do so, the study attempts to capture the nature of the causal relationship between the two variables by applying linear and nonlinear Granger-causality tests. Rather than Wagner's law, the empirical findings of the study provide supportive evidence for the Keynesian view, subject to the economically meaningful components of government expenditures considered. Overall, the empirical findings show that government expenditures on defense, economic affairs, education, health, housing and community amenities, and social protection positively affect output that comes out through fiscal multiplier and investment-accelerator mechanisms proposed by John Maynard Keynes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Investigación Económica is the property of Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Facultad de Economia and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper examines the relationship between real GDP and government spending for the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Linear Granger causality tests in the time and frequency domains provide moderate support for Wagner's law in four countries and weak support for the Keynesian model in two countries. In contrast, asymmetric nonlinear causality tests in the frequency domain support Wagner's law in five countries, while some form of the Keynesian hypothesis is valid in all six GCC countries. Our results illustrate the importance of using nonlinear, asymmetric models to examine causal relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public investment has shown increasing trends both in nominal and as a share of GDP over years in Ethiopia. These upsurges in public investment are believed to be due to factors that have visible impact on the fiscal posture of the country. To investigate the validity of Wagner’s law in Ethiopia; this study sets determinants of public investment in Ethiopia as a general objective. Specifically, the study sought to examine the main influencing factors on level of public investment in Ethiopia along three sets of explanatory variables. In order to meet the aforementioned objective, the study employed an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach over the period 1985–2019. Results from the bound tests show that there is a long-run relationship between the variables. The real per capita GDP is found to be positively and significantly impact on level of public investment which shows that there an evidence in favour of Wagner’s law,i.e. public spending has a high income elasticity of demand. This study also found that there is a positive relationship between public investment and private investment which shows that two are moving in tandem. Again, the study also found that foreign aid has positive impact on public investment implying that additional foreign aid leads to larger spending of the government on capital. Moreover, the study found that the degree of urbanization suggests that levels of public spending are higher in the urban sector than rural economies. These findings give strong policy implication to the policy makers because an increase in public investments in may then help spur economic growth.

Copyright of Optimum: Journal of Economics & Management Sciences / Ekonomi ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi is the property of Optimum: Journal of Economics & Management Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Public investment has shown increasing trends both in nominal and as a share of GDP over years in Ethiopia. These upsurges in public investment are believed to be due to factors that have visible impact on the fiscal posture of the country. To investigate the validity of Wagner's law in Ethiopia; this study sets determinants of public investment in Ethiopia as a general objective. Specifically, the study sought to examine the main influencing factors on level of public investment in Ethiopia along three sets of explanatory variables. In order to meet the aforementioned objective, the study employed an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach over the period 1985–2019. Results from the bound tests show that there is a long-run relationship between the variables. The real per capita GDP is found to be positively and significantly impact on level of public investment which shows that there an evidence in favour of Wagner's law,i.e. public spending has a high income elasticity of demand. This study also found that there is a positive relationship between public investment and private investment which shows that two are moving in tandem. Again, the study also found that foreign aid has positive impact on public investment implying that additional foreign aid leads to larger spending of the government on capital. Moreover, the study found that the degree of urbanization suggests that levels of public spending are higher in the urban sector than rural economies. These findings give strong policy implication to the policy makers because an increase in public investments in may then help spur economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the relationship between public spending and economic growth in Nigeria between 1981 and 2019. The study employs ARDL along with Granger causality test to determine the directional and dynamic relationship. The results show that social and community recurrent expenditure, social and community services capital expenditure and administration recurrent expenditure simulates Nigeria Economic growth (GDPGR), while, economic service recurrent expenditure (ESRX), economic service capital expenditure (ESCX), transfer capital expenditure and transfer recurrent expenditure deters Nigeria economic growth (GDPGR). The findings further reveal that there is unidirectional causality that runs from both administrative capital expenditure (ADCX) and administration recurrent expenditure (ADRX) to economic growth (GDPGR). The study recommends that government should increase her spending on both recurrent and capital expenditures on social and community as well as administrative recurrent expenditure to move towards achieving vision 2030, while it should reduce the budgetary allocation to capital and recurrent expenditure on transfer, administration capital expenditure, and also reduce borrowing to reduce debt services. Finally, the government should monitor the proper disbursement of the allocated fund, block all loopholes and ensure full implementation of the budget. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study empirically tests if the Wagner’s law stands for the Nigerian economy using data for the period 1981-2015. Form the results, economic, social and community services expenditure show highly significant values suggesting that these sectors are very much needed and still adds value to the economy. The results of the Granger causality analysis indicates that there is a bi-directional causality between economic growth and government spending, which posit to a high level of accuracy that Wagner’s law holds for Nigeria. The result suggests that economic growth has an important role to play in determining government spending because as the economy grows, it expands and for this, government need to expand its spending to meet up with the demands of the expansion. There is therefore the need for curtail the rapid growth of its size above the optimum level that stimulates rise in expenditure. Any further expansion in expenditure should focus on economic, social and community services since they are growth enhancing.

The aim of this study is to determine the direction of the relationship between income and public expenditures in the 2005-2014 period of the Turkish economy at a sub-regional level. While Gross Domestic Product per capita was preferred as income criteria, the functional classification was used in public expenditures. In modeling variables, the specification developed by Peacock and Wiseman to test Wagner's law was used. The Regional unemployment rate was added to the right-hand side of the model as a control variable. Hypothesis tests were performed on the predicted regression models, and estimators were preferred to produce robust standard errors that would increase the effectiveness of the models. After interpreting the elasticity coefficients obtained from estimating the models, the causality relationship between income and public expenditures was determined by applying Dumitrescu and Hurlin panel causality analysis method. When the elasticity coefficients obtained from the models were examined under the model proposed by Peacock and Wiseman, it was found that the criteria that the elasticity coefficient should be greater than one were not met in all of the models. According to Dumitrescu and Hurlin panel causality test results, which were conducted to determine causality between six different public expenditures and gross domestic product, there was a two-way causality relationship between two expenditures. On the other hand, it has been determined that there is a one-way causality relationship from public expenditure towards the gross domestic product.

The aim of this research is to test Wagner’s law and Keynesian hypothesis in 9 Post‑Soviet countries – Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, and Ukraine. For this purpose, long‑ and short‑run causality between real per capita GDP and real per capita government expenditures are estimated by employing ARDL modelling approach. Estimation results support validity of Wagner’s law for Latvia, Lithuania, Uzbekistan, Georgia, Kyrgyz Republic and Ukraine, and validity of Keynesian hypothesis for Estonia, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyz Republic, and Moldova in the long‑run. Meanwhile, research findings indicate strong bidirectional short‑run causality in all countries except Lithuania and Kyrgyz Republic in the short‑run.

Regardless of theoretical grounds that presumed a positive relationship between government spending and economic growth, the extant research on this nexus is inclusive. This article re-examines the relationship between public expenditure and economic growth using more copious panel data set covering 59 countries in 1990–2019. Our empirical results confirm the unidirectional causality between economic growth and government expenditure where the causation runs between public spending and GDP growth. The results at large support the Keynesian framework that asserts the importance of government expenditure in stimulating economic growth. Further, the analysis reveals that after considering all the control variables such as trade accessibility, investment and inflation public spending positively affects economic growth. With regards to control variables, it was found that investment has a significant and positive bearing on economic growth. Evidence from the regression estimates further displays that trade openness encourages evolution in developing countries. However, population growth and unemployment have a detrimental effect on economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims examine the role of public spending on economic growth and the validity of Wagner's Law and Keynesian Hypothesis in Turkey for the period 2006-2019. In this context, quarterly time series were used in the study, Phillips-Ouliaris cointegration and error correction model Granger Causality test methods are applied. The findings show that public spending is effective on the real gross domestic product growth and both Wagner Law and Keynesian Hypothesis are valid in Turkey for the period 2006-2019. Phillips-Ouliaris Cointegration test results reveal that public expenditure variables are related to real gross domestic product variables in long-run. Error correction model Granger Causality test results show that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between real gross domestic product growth rate variable and real public expenditure variable. In addition, there is a unidirectional causality relationship from real gross domestic product variable to real public expenditure/real gross domestic product ratio variable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on the nexus between government expenditure and economic growth produces mixed results from different countries. The objective of this paper is to test if a causal relationship exists between government expenditure and economic growth in South Africa. the paper relied on testing the applicability of Wagner’s and Keynesian theories on public expenditure and economic growth with data from South Africa. Data on South Africa’s government expenditure and economic growth for 1961 – 2018 were used and the Granger causality Wald test was used to analyse the causality. Neither Wager’s nor Keynesian hypothesis was proven within the limit of the fifty-eight years’ data used. This is because the results show no significant causal relationship from either side of economic growth and public expenditure. Policy makers should pay attention on how to channel government expenditure and the gains from economic growth to improve citizens’ ability to increase their productive capital. Further researchers should expand the time series coverage to go beyond 1961 to check for new results; a regional panel data for Southern Africa is also recommended for further research. This paper produces a new test of Wagner’s and Keynesian hypothesis by merging data from the pre-democratic with the democratic period of South Africa and applied a combination of ADF, co-integration, VAR and Granger Causality analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]