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Abstract Pakistan is facing electricity crises owing to lack of integrated energy planning, reliance on imported fuels for power generation, and poor governance. This situation has challenged governments for over a decade to address these crises. However, despite various conformist planning and policy initiatives, the balance between demand and supply of electricity is yet to be achieved. In this study, Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) is used to develop Pakistan's LEAP modeling framework for the period 2015–2050. Following demand forecast, four supply side scenarios; Reference (REF), Renewable Energy Technologies (RET), Clean Coal Maximum (CCM) and Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EEC) are enacted considering resource potential, techno-economic parameters, and CO 2 emissions. The model results estimate the demand forecast of 1706.3 TWh in 2050, at an annual average growth rate of 8.35%, which is 19 times higher than the base year demand. On the supply side, RET scenario, although capital-intensive earlier in the modeling period, is found to be the sustainable electricity generation path followed by EEC scenario with the lower demand of 1373.2 TWh and minimum Net Present Value (NPV) at an aggregate discount rate of 6%. Conclusion section of the paper provides the recommendations devised from this study results. Highlights • Pakistan's electricity system modeled for the period of 2015–2050 using LEAP tool. • Electricity demand for Pakistan in 2050 has been forecasted as 1706 TWh • Energy efficiency & conservation scenario decreases 20% of electricity demand by 2050. • Four supply side scenarios developed to meet both of these forecasted demands. • Role of energy efficiency improvement & renewable energy integration is significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy planning and policy development require an in-depth assessment of energy resources and long-term demand forecast estimates. Pakistan, unfortunately, lacks reliable data on its energy resources as well do not have dependable long-term energy demand forecasts. As a result, the policy makers could not come up with an effective energy policy in the history of the country. Energy demand forecast has attained greatest ever attention in the perspective of growing population and diminishing fossil fuel resources. In this study, Pakistan's energy demand forecast for electricity, natural gas, oil, coal and LPG across all the sectors of the economy have been undertaken. Three different energy demand forecasting methodologies, i.e., Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Holt-Winter and Long-range Energy Alternate Planning (LEAP) model were used. The demand forecast estimates of each of these methods were compared using annual energy demand data. The results of this study suggest that ARIMA is more appropriate for energy demand forecasting for Pakistan compared to Holt-Winter model and LEAP model. It is estimated that industrial sector's demand shall be highest in the year 2035 followed by transport and domestic sectors. The results further suggest that energy fuel mix will change considerably, such that oil will be the most highly consumed energy form (38.16%) followed by natural gas (36.57%), electricity (16.22%), coal (7.52%) and LPG (1.52%) in 2035. In view of higher demand forecast of fossil fuels consumption, this study recommends that government should take the initiative for harnessing renewable energy resources for meeting future energy demand to not only avert huge import bill but also achieving energy security and sustainability in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]