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Objective. This study aims to develop and assess a tumor contraction model, enhancing the precision of ablative margin (AM) evaluation after microwave ablation (MWA) treatment for hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs). Approach. We utilize a probabilistic method called the coherent point drift algorithm to align pre-and post-ablation MRI images. Subsequently, a nonlinear regression method quantifies local tumor contraction induced by MWA, utilizing data from 47 HCC with viable ablated tumors in post-ablation MRI. After automatic non-rigid registration, correction for tumor contraction involves contracting the 3D contour of the warped tumor towards its center in all orientations. Main results. We evaluate the performance of our proposed method on 30 HCC patients who underwent MWA. The Dice similarity coefficient between the post-ablation liver and the warped pre-ablation livers is found to be 0.95 ± 0.01, with a mean corresponding distance between the corresponding landmarks measured at 3.25 ± 0.62 mm. Additionally, we conduct a comparative analysis of clinical outcomes assessed through MRI over a 3 month follow-up period, noting that the AM, as evaluated by our proposed method, accurately detects residual tumor after MWA. Significance. Our proposed method showcases a high level of accuracy in MRI liver registration and AM assessment following ablation treatment. It introduces a potentially approach for predicting incomplete ablations and gauging treatment success. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]