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© 2015, BMJ Publishing Group. All rights reserved.The Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act of 2009 gave the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulatory authority over cigarettes and smokeless tobacco products and authorised it to assert juri

Litigation and regulatory assaults on the tobacco companies may create a willingness among tobacco manufacturers to bargain resources and acceptance of public policy changes for limitations of liability, as has been seen by the recent settlement with the Liggett Group. Two elements absolutely critical to any plan are the elimination of tobacco advertising and promotion and the removal of addiction as a reason for tobacco use. Minimal components of any settlement should include: (a) acceptance by the tobacco manufacturers of the causal relationship between tobacco use and disease, and the addictive nature of nicotine; (b) a total ban on tobacco advertising and promotion; (c) FDA jurisdiction over tobacco products and their nicotine content, with the intent of removing nicotine as soon as acceptable nicotine substitution products are available; (d) reimbursement to the states for Medicaid and other state expenditures attributable to smoking, to the maximum extent feasible; (e) funding for local, state, and federal programmes and research in tobacco control; (f) acceptance of legislation and regulations protecting the right of non-smokers to breathe air free of tobacco smoke; (g) funding for a large, national, media-led, anti-tobacco campaign; and (h) cessation assistance for addicted smokers. If negotiations toward a settlement proceed, it is essential that the public health community participate in defining the elements of any agreement to ensure that whatever agreement develops is focused on reducing tobacco-related disease rather than continuing the profitability of American tobacco companies. That participation requires articulation of the core elements essential to an acceptable agreement. If resolution of the public health issues surrounding continued sale of tobacco products can be reached in the United States, it may provide a model for similar resolution in other countries.

The establishment of a university-based network of colleagues with a shared goal of increasing tobacco research and educational opportunities can enrich the learning environment and ultimately contribute to reducing the toll of smoking. Such a network was established at the University of Michigan, and similar approaches can be adopted at other universities, considering a range of funding levels. This article discusses the mission, structure, accomplishments, and future goals of the network, along with lessons learned and recommendations for successful initialization. Specific examples of network activities are provided, along with references to web sites and lectures. This case study will be useful to any university leader seeking to establish a network of tobacco and nicotine researchers on campus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The future of the tobacco-produced disease epidemic rests in low- and middle-income countries, where cigarette sales are growing-the result of rising incomes, trade liberalization, liberalization of the treatment of women, and the introduction of Western-style advertising.Research on disease causation, epidemiology, and educational and policy interventions has contributed significantly to reducing smoking rates in developed countries. A similar contribution is needed in less affluent nations, but severe challenges are involved in implementing a robust research program in such countries.In an attempt to understand these challenges and begin to conceptualize an approach to overcoming them, I examine the need for and methods to achieve a program of meaningful research on tobacco and health, as well as health policy, in the developing world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Smoking prevalence is shifting from more- to less-developed countries. In higher-income countries, smoking surveillance data, tailored treatments, public health campaigns, and research-based policy implementation have led to a decrease in tobacco use. In low- and middle-income countries, translating research into practice and policy is integral for tobacco control.We describe the landscape of existing resources, both financial and structural, to support global tobacco control research and strengthen research capacity in developing countries. We identify key organizations that support international efforts, provide examples of partnerships between developed and developing countries, and make recommendations for advancing global tobacco research.There is a need for increased commitment from organizations to support global tobacco control research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surveys consistently demonstrate that smokers are less likely than non-smokers to acknowledge the health hazards of cigarette smoking. Similarly, compared with high education individuals, persons with lower educational attainment are less likely to acknowledge smoking's dangers. We find, however, that as education level rises, smokers' acceptance of the dangers of smoking rises significantly less than does the acceptance by non-smokers. Thus, relative to non-smokers with the same educational attainment, high-education smokers are less likely to acknowledge the hazards of smoking than are smokers with lower levels of education. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

OBJECTIVES: This study examined the changes in smoking initiation and cessation needed to realize the Healthy People 2010 national adult smoking prevalence objective (13%). METHODS: Using data from the National Health Interview Surveys, we calculated smoking prevalence over time with a dynamic population demographics model, examining the effects of changes in smoking initiation and cessation. RESULTS: The draft objective is unattainable solely through decreases in smoking initiation. It could be achieved through smoking cessation alone only if cessation rates immediately increased by a factor of more than 3.5. Assuming plausible decreases in initiation and increases in cessation, the draft objective is virtually unattainable. CONCLUSIONS: The health objectives should challenge the status quo but be achievable. Formal analysis often can assist in establishing reasonable objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We compared observed smoking prevalence data for 1995-2002 with predictions derived from a previously published population dynamics model to determine whether the recent trend in smoking prevalence is consistent with the downward pattern we predicted. The observed data fit our projections closely (R 2 =.89). Consistent with the logic underlying the model, we conclude that adult smoking prevalence will continue to fall for the foreseeable future, although at a rate approximately half that of the decline experienced during the 1970s and 1980s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Quantifying the impact of smoking on life expectancy and the potential benefits of smoking cessation is crucial for motivating people who smoke to quit. While previous studies have attempted to estimate these effects, they were conducted more than a decade ago and did not include a significant demographic, people over 65 years old who smoke., Methods: Mortality rates by age and smoking status were calculated using mortality relative risks derived from Cancer Prevention Study II, 2018 National Health Interview Survey smoking prevalence data, 2018 U.S. population census data, and 2018 U.S. mortality rates. Subsequently, life tables by smoking status-never, current, and former-were constructed. Life expectancies for all three smoking statuses, including those of individuals who had quit smoking at various ages ranging from 35 to 75, were then compared. Additionally, probability distributions of years lost due to smoking and years gained by quitting smoking at different ages were generated. Analyses were conducted in 2023., Results: Compared to people who never smoked, those who smoke currently, aged 35, 45, 55, 65, or 75 years, and who have smoked throughout adulthood until that age, will lose, on average, 9.1, 8.3, 7.3, 5.9, and 4.4 years of life, respectively, if they continue to smoke for the rest of their lives. However, if they quit smoking at each of these ages, they will avoid an average loss of 8.0, 5.6, 3.4, 1.7, and 0.7 years. The chances of gaining at least 1 year of life among those who quit at age 65 and 75 are 23.4% and 14.2%, respectively., Conclusions: Quitting smoking early will avoid most years otherwise lost due to smoking. Even those who quit at ages 65 and above can still meaningfully increase their life expectancy., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objective: This study updates a previous paper that examined trends in the sale of cigarettes and heated tobacco products (HTPs) in Japan between 2011 and part way through 2019. The current study includes complete unit sales data through 2023., Methods: Data on cigarette and HTP sales were obtained from public sources available from the websites and stockholder reports for the Tobacco Institute of Japan, Philip Morris International and Japan Tobacco. We used joinpoint regression using the parametric method to test for trends in both per capita and total sales for the three outcome variables assessed between 2011 and 2023: (1) cigarette sales, (2) HTP sales and (3) combined cigarette and HTP sales. Joinpoint regression identifies changes in trends and estimates the annual per cent change (APC) for each trend segment., Results: Between 2011 and 2023, per capita and total cigarette sales declined by 52.6% and 52.7%, respectively. From 2011 to 2015, per capita cigarette sales in Japan decreased -1.5% APC; from 2015 to 2018, the decline accelerated to -10.5% APC and continued to fall -7.3% APC between 2018 and 2023. Between 2016 and 2018, per capita HTP sales increased by 149.0% APC, and since 2018, they have increased by 8.1% APC., Conclusion: While many factors may account for the decreased sale of cigarettes in Japan over the past 12 years, the increased sale of HTPs appears to be a factor., Competing Interests: Competing interests: KMC has been a paid expert witness in litigation against the cigarette industry. MLG received a research grant from Pfizer and served as a member of the scientific advisory board of Johnson & Johnson. GTF has served as an expert witness and consultant for governments defending their country’s tobacco control policies and regulations in litigation, and was and unpaid member of he Health Canada Vaping Products Scientific Advisory Group 2017-2020. All others have no conflicts of interest to declare., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Introduction: Little is known about how quitting and switching to other tobacco products affects cigarette smoking relapse. Additionally, there is no consensus on the best definition of relapse., Aims and Methods: Respondents who smoked cigarettes at baseline, had quit by the first follow-up, and completed the second follow-up survey in the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study were included. We employed multivariable logistic regressions to assess the association between non-cigarette tobacco use at follow-up 1 and smoking relapse risk at follow-up 2, considering three definitions of relapse., Results: 54.8% of the 1686 respondents who had recently quit smoking cigarettes relapsed according to Measure I (any smoking in the past 12 months), 40.3% using Measure II (any smoking in the past 30 days), and 30.1% using Measure III (smoked on ≥3 days in the past 30 days). Compared with no tobacco use at follow-up 1, any tobacco use was associated with increased relapse risk using Measure I (adjusted risk difference [aRD] = 7.14, CI [0.64 to 13.64]). The association was nonsignificant using Measures II (aRD = -0.53, CI [-6.62 to 5.56]) or III (aRD = -4.11, CI [-9.28 to 1.06]). Similarly, exclusive e-cigarette use was significantly associated with Measure I, but not with Measures II or III., Conclusions: Compared with respondents who had recently quit and were tobacco-free at follow-up 1, those who switched to non-cigarette tobacco products may be more likely to slip but showed no difference in the likelihood of relapse when employing a relapse definition less strict than any smoking in the past 12 months., Implications: The distinction between a slip and relapse needs to be considered more carefully, with researchers undertaking further studies that help us contemplate how we should define relapse. People who recently quit smoking cigarettes and switched to non-cigarette tobacco products (including e-cigarettes) may be more likely to slip compared to people who recently quit and were tobacco-free, but they are not clearly more likely to relapse., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For commercial re-use, please contact reprints@oup.com for reprints and translation rights for reprints. All other permissions can be obtained through our RightsLink service via the Permissions link on the article page on our site—for further information please contact journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objective: The aim of this study was to project the impact of legislated nurse staffing ratios on patient-, staff-, and system-level outcomes for Prospective Payment System (PPS) hospitals in Montana., Background: In 2023, House Bill 568 was introduced in Montana focused on legislating hospital safe nursing standards., Methods: A quantitative design was used for a convenience sample of Montana PPS hospitals. Data were gathered through a newly developed survey and from other publicly available sources for the years 2018 to 2022. Independent t tests were conducted when appropriate with the significance threshold set at 0.05., Results: Projections indicate no significant change in patient outcome metrics accompanied by increases in labor requirements, slower emergency department throughput times, and decreases in hospital operating margins., Conclusions: In Montana, legislating nurse staffing ratios would have downstream implications inconsistent with the intended impact on patient safety, emphasizing the complexity of variables within and external to the healthcare system that drive patient-, staff-, and system-level outcomes., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2024 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Introdution: Studies have reported that the rapid rise in heated tobacco product (HTP) sales in Japan accompanied an accelerated decline in cigarette sales. However, these studies do not distinguish whether those who previously smoked cigarettes became dual users with HTPs (smoking fewer cigarettes) or instead switched completely to HTPs. If HTPs present lower health risks than cigarettes, replacing cigarettes with HTPs is more likely to improve public health than cigarette users continuing as dual users., Methods: To evaluate the role of HTP introduction relative to smoking prevalence, we examine trends in cigarette prevalence as related to trends in HTP use using Japan's National Health and Nutrition Survey (NHNS) from 2011 to 2019. We develop measures of relative changes in smoking prevalence use by age and gender in the pre-HTP and post-HTP periods. We then analyse prevalence data by year using joinpoint regression to statistically distinguish changes in trend., Results: Compared with the pre-HTP 2011-2014 period, cigarette prevalence decreased more rapidly during the post-HTP 2014-2017 period, particularly among younger age groups. However, the changing format of NHNS questions limits our ability to determine the impact on smoking prevalence, particularly after 2017., Conclusions: While suggesting that HTPs helped some people who smoke to quit smoking, this study also shows the difficulties in eliciting accurate survey responses about product use and distinguishing the impact of a potentially harm-reducing product in an environment subject to rapidly evolving patterns of use., Competing Interests: Competing interests: KC has served as a paid expert witness in litigation against cigarette companies. DTL gave a short talk virtually to an industry-sponsored conference (GTNF, 2023). He did not otherwise attend the conference and received no financial support., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Introduction: Oral nicotine pouches (ONPs) are a new class of nicotine products. This scoping review summarizes evidence on ONPs and explores their potential public health impact., Aims and Methods: We conducted a structured literature search for empirical studies across three electronic databases through January 10, 2024. Outcomes included ONP product characteristics, use patterns, beliefs and perceptions, toxicity, and marketing and sales., Results: Sixty-two studies were included, 17 were industry-funded. Most studies were from the United States. While large variations across studies were observed in ONP youth prevalence estimates, nationally representative U.S. studies find current use at 1.5% and lifetime use below 2.5% through 2023. Between 35% and 42% of U.S. adolescents and young adults have heard of ONPs, and 9-21% of tobacco-naïve youth were susceptible to trying them. U.S. adult-use estimates varied widely (0.8%-3% current; 3%-16% lifetime use) and were limited to populations with a history of tobacco use. The chemical composition of ONPs suggests fewer harmful/potentially harmful compounds at lower levels than cigarettes and smokeless tobacco (SLT), except formaldehyde. Industry-funded studies find substantially less cytotoxicity compared to cigarettes and suggest that higher nicotine-strength ONPs can deliver nicotine at levels comparable to or higher than SLT or cigarettes, although with slower nicotine release than cigarettes. Evidence on the cytotoxicity of ONPs relative to SLT is mixed., Conclusions: ONPs appear to be less toxic than cigarettes and deliver comparable nicotine, presenting an alternative for combustible product users, although key data are mainly available from industry-funded studies. Data from independent research is critically needed. Industry marketing of ONPs may encourage initiation in youth and situational and dual use in adults., Implications: The review provides an initial assessment of the potential role of ONPs in harm reduction and aims to determine unintended consequences of their use (youth uptake and dual-use) and identify populations that disproportionately use the product. This information is essential for tobacco regulatory bodies in determining the net public health impact of nicotine pouches., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco.)

Introduction: The often-cited Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimate of 480,000 annual U.S. smoking-attributable deaths (SADs), including 439,000 first-hand smoke deaths, derives from 2005 to 2009 data. Since then, adult smoking prevalence has decreased by 40%, while the population has grown and the smoking population aged. An updated estimate is presented to determine whether the CDC figure remains accurate or has changed substantially. In addition, the likely annual smoking-related mortality toll is projected through 2035., Methods: A well-established model of smoking prevalence and health effects is employed to estimate annual SADs among individuals exposed to first-hand smoke in the U.S. for two distinct periods: 2005-2009 and 2020-2035. The estimate for 2005-2009 serves as a benchmark to evaluate the reliability of the model's estimate in comparison to CDC's. The projections for 2020-2035 provide up-to-date figures for SADs, predicting how annual SADs are likely to change in the coming years. Data were collected between 2005 and 2020. The analysis was conducted in 2023., Results: This study's estimate of 420,000 first-hand smoke deaths over 2005-2009 is 95.7% of CDC's estimate during the same period. The model projections indicate that SADs among individuals who currently smoke or formerly smoked have increased modestly since 2005-2009. Beginning in 2020, annual SADs will remain relatively stable at approximately 450,000 before starting to decline around 2030., Conclusions: These findings suggest that the CDC estimate of the annual mortality burden of smoking remains valid. Despite U.S. population growth and the aging of the smoking population, substantial reductions in smoking will finally produce a steady, if gradual, decline in SADs beginning around 2030., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Importance: President Biden recently prioritized the fight against smoking as key to reducing cancer mortality., Objective: To assess trends in smoking and illuminate the association between smoking and reducing deaths due to cancer., Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used responses to National Health Interview Surveys from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2022, to characterize trends in current smoking for key sociodemographic groups among US adults., Exposures: Age (18-24, 25-39, 40-64, and ≥65 years), family income (<200%, 200%-399%, and ≥400% of the federal poverty level [FPL]), educational level (less than high school, high school degree or General Educational Development, some college, and college degree or above), and race and ethnicity (Black, Hispanic, White, and other)., Main Outcomes and Measures: Weighted current smoking prevalence with 95% CIs by analysis group from 2011 to 2022. Average annual percentage change (AAPC) in smoking prevalence by analysis group is calculated using Joinpoint regression., Results: Data from 353 555 adults surveyed by the National Health Interview Surveys from 2011 to 2022 were included (12.6% Black, 15.0% Hispanic, 65.2% White, and 7.3% other race or ethnicity). Overall, smoking prevalence decreased among adults aged 18 to 24 years from 19.2% (95% CI, 17.5%-20.9%) in 2011 to 4.9% (95% CI, 3.7%-6.0%) in 2022 at an AAPC of -11.3% (95% CI, -13.2% to -9.4%), while it remained roughly constant among adults 65 years or older at 8.7% (95% CI, 7.9%-9.5%) in 2011 and 9.4% (95% CI, 8.7%-10.2%) in 2022 (AAPC, -0.1% [95% CI, -0.8% to 0.7%]). Among adults 65 years or older, smoking prevalence increased from 13.0% (95% CI, 11.2%-14.7%) in 2011 to 15.8% (95% CI, 14.1%-17.6%) for those with income less than 200% FPL (AAPC, 1.1% [95% CI, 0.1%-2.1%]) and remained roughly constant with no significant change for those of higher income. Similar age patterns are seen across educational level and racial and ethnic groups., Conclusions and Relevance: This cross-sectional study found that smoking prevalence decreased from 2011 to 2022 in all age groups except adults 65 years or older, with faster decreases among younger than older adults. These findings suggest that the greatest gains in terms of reducing smoking-attributable morbidity and mortality could be achieved by focusing on individuals with low socioeconomic status, as this population has the highest smoking rates and the worst health prospects.

Introduction: The popularity of cannabis vaping has increased rapidly, especially among adolescents and young adults. We posit some possible explanations and, to evaluate them, examine whether cannabis vapers differ from non-vaping cannabis users in other substance use., Methods: Using nationally representative data from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study wave 5 (Dec. 2018-Nov. 2019), we assessed the association between cannabis vaping and other substance use. A total of 1,689 adolescents and 10,620 adults who reported cannabis use in the past 12 months were included in the study. We employed multivariable logistic regressions to assess the association between cannabis vaping and other substance use., Results: Among past 12-month cannabis users, compared with those who do not vape cannabis, participants who vape cannabis had higher risks of using alcohol (adjusted relative risk [aRR] = 1.04, 95 % CI, 1.01-1.07), cigarettes (aRR = 1.09, 95 % CI, 1.02-1.15), cigars (aRR = 1.17, 95 % CI, 1.06-1.30), other tobacco products (aRR = 1.29, 95 % CI, 1.14-1.45), electronic nicotine products (aRR = 4.64, 95 % CI, 4.32-4.99), other illicit drugs (aRR = 1.53, 95 % CI, 1.29-1.80), and misuse of prescription drugs (aRR = 1.43, 95 % CI, 1.19-1.72). Compared to older cannabis vapers, younger cannabis vapers were at risk of using more other substances. Cannabis vaping was associated with all seven measures of substance use among young adults., Conclusions: Compared to non-vaping cannabis users, cannabis vapers have higher likelihood of using other substances. Research is needed to understand why, as well as the implications of the association., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (© 2023 The Authors.)

Philip Morris International's recent purchase of Swedish Match may prove to be a vital tobacco industry development. We focus on PMIs potential progress in moving from primarily selling cigarettes toward primarily selling noncombustible nicotine delivery products (NCNDPs). We also consider the potential contribution of the acquisition to industry transformation whereby other cigarette firms may potentially move toward primarily selling NCNDPs. We examine the potential impact on noncombustible nicotine delivery product use, including nicotine pouches (a major Swedish Match product), e-cigarettes, heated tobacco products, and, most importantly, on sales of the industry's staple, combustible cigarettes. We focus on the United States as a special case, where PMI is limited from entering the cigarette market. Implications: Philip Morris International's purchase of Swedish Match and policies regarding nicotine pouches (NPs) have been overlooked in the tobacco control literature. The acquisition indicates the importance of the NP market to the largest nonstate-owned tobacco company. The acquisition has the potential through pricing and marketing tactics to either encourage or discourage the use of NPs, e-cigarettes, heated tobacco products, and most importantly cigarettes. Due to its inability to sell cigarettes in the United States, PMI will have incentives to use its alternative nicotine delivery products, including its newly acquired NPs, to reduce the sale of cigarettes by other companies. However, the potential effects in other countries, where PMI does sell cigarettes, are less clear. Monitoring and analyzing tobacco company acquisitions is essential to studying future transitions in using different kinds of tobacco products, especially from cigarettes to lower-risk alternative nicotine delivery products., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Tracking the US smoking cessation rate over time is of great interest to tobacco control researchers and policymakers since smoking cessation behaviors have a major effect on the public's health. Recent studies have employed dynamic models to estimate the US cessation rate through observed smoking prevalence. However, none of those studies has provided annual estimates of the cessation rate by age group. Hence, the primary objective of this study is to estimate annual smoking cessation rates specific to different age groups in the US from 2009 to 2017., Methods: We employed a Kalman filter approach to investigate the annual evolution of age-group-specific cessation rates, unknown parameters of a mathematical model of smoking prevalence, during the 2009-2017 period using data from the 2009-2018 National Health Interview Surveys. We focused on cessation rates in the 25-44, 45-64 and 65 + age groups., Results: The findings show that cessation rates followed a consistent u-shaped curve over time with respect to age (i.e., higher among the 25-44 and 65 + age groups, and lower among 45-64-year-olds). Over the course of the study, the cessation rates in the 25-44 and 65 + age groups remained nearly unchanged around 4.5% and 5.6%, respectively. However, the rate in the 45-64 age group exhibited a substantial increase of 70%, from 2.5% to 2009 to 4.2% in 2017. The estimated cessation rates in all three age groups tended to converge to the weighted average cessation rate over time., Conclusions: The Kalman filter approach offers a real-time estimation of cessation rates that can be helpful for monitoring smoking cessation behavior., (© 2023. BioMed Central Ltd., part of Springer Nature.)

Purpose: The current study assessed the association between cannabis use among youth never e-cigarette users and subsequent e-cigarette use., Methods: The Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study is a nationally representative cohort study. Participants aged 12 years and older were selected using a 4-stage, stratified probability sample design from the US civilian, noninstitutionalized population. We included adolescents who participated in both wave 4.5 (2017-2018) and wave 5 (2018-2019) of Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health, and were never e-cigarette users at baseline (N = 9,925). Through multivariable logistic regressions, we examined the prospective association between cannabis use and subsequent e-cigarette use., Results: E-cigarette use at wave five was significantly more common among youth cannabis users at wave 4.5. The adjusted relative risks between ever cannabis use and subsequent past 12-month, past 30-day, and frequent e-cigarette use (≥20 days per month) were 1.53 (95% CI, 1.26-1.81), 1.70 (95% CI, 1.25-2.15), and 2.10 (95% CI, 1.17-3.03), respectively. The adjusted relative risks between past 30-day cannabis use and subsequent past 12-month, past 30-day, and frequent e-cigarette use were 1.54 (95% CI, 1.04-2.28), 2.01 (95% CI, 1.23-3.29), and 2.87 (95% CI, 1.44-5.71), respectively. We also found significant associations between ever cannabis vaping with subsequent e-cigarette use., Discussion: While previous research associates e-cigarette use with subsequent onset of cannabis use, we identify a reverse directional effect, where adolescent cannabis use is associated with increased likelihood of future e-cigarette use., (Copyright © 2023 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objective: Tracking the US smoking cessation rate over time is of great interest to tobacco control researchers and policymakers since smoking cessation behaviors have a major effect on the public's health. A couple of recent studies have employed dynamic models to estimate the US cessation rate through observed smoking prevalence. However, none of those studies has provided recent annual estimates of the cessation rate by age group., Methods: We employed a Kalman filter approach to investigate the annual evolution of age-group-specific cessation rates, unknown parameters of a mathematical model of smoking prevalence, during the 2009-2018 period using data from the National Health Interview Survey. We focused on cessation rates in the 24-44, 45-64 and 65 + age groups., Results: The findings show that cessation rates follow a consistent u-shaped curve over time with respect to age (i.e., higher among the 25-44 and 65 + age groups, and lower among 45-64-year-olds). Over the course of the study, the cessation rates in the 25-44 and 65 + age groups remained nearly unchanged around 4.5% and 5.6%, respectively. However, the rate in the 45-64 age group exhibited a substantial increase of 70%, from 2.5% in 2009 to 4.2% in 2017. The estimated cessation rates in all three age groups tended to converge to the weighted average cessation rate over time., Conclusions: The Kalman filter approach offers a real-time estimation of cessation rates that would be helpful for monitoring smoking cessation behavior, of interest in general but also for tobacco control policymakers., Competing Interests: Competing interests None declared.

Introduction: The US Food and Drug Administration most recently announced its intention to ban menthol cigarettes and cigars nationwide in April 2021. Implementation of the ban will require evidence that it would improve public health. This paper simulates the potential public health impact of a ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars through its impacts on smoking initiation, smoking cessation and switching to nicotine vaping products (NVPs)., Methods: After calibrating an established US simulation model to reflect recent use trends in cigarette and NVP use, we extended the model to incorporate menthol and non-menthol cigarette use under a status quo scenario. Applying estimates from a recent expert elicitation on the behavioural impacts of a menthol ban, we developed a menthol ban scenario with the ban starting in 2021. We estimated the public health impact as the difference between smoking and vaping-attributable deaths and life-years lost in the status quo scenario and the menthol ban scenario from 2021 to 2060., Results: As a result of the ban, overall smoking was estimated to decline by 15% as early as 2026 due to menthol smokers quitting both NVP and combustible use or switching to NVPs. These transitions are projected to reduce cumulative smoking and vaping-attributable deaths from 2021 to 2060 by 5% (650 000 in total) and reduce life-years lost by 8.8% (11.3 million). Sensitivity analyses showed appreciable public health benefits across different parameter specifications., Conclusions and Relevance: Our findings strongly support the implementation of a ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) come in numerous flavors and may aid smoking cessation. This systematic review examines evidence on the role of ENDS flavors in smoking cessation., Methods: We searched EMBASE OVID, PsychInfo, and Medline databases for studies that: 1) examined cigarette cessation outcomes for persons using ENDS (intent, attempts, and success) and 2) reported results separated by respondent's ENDS flavor used. We extracted crude and adjusted odds ratios for associations between cessation outcomes and types of ENDS flavors used (nontobacco vs. tobacco/unflavored; nontobacco and nonmenthol vs. tobacco/unflavored and menthol). We did not consider cessation outcomes among people not using ENDS. We evaluated the evidence using the GRADE approach, focusing on consistency and reliability of findings across studies., Results: 29 studies met inclusion criteria, producing 36 odds ratios (ORs) comparing cessation outcomes across ENDS flavor groups. Three ORs examined quit intent, five examined quit attempts, and 28 examined quit success. Using GRADE, we reached Low levels of certainty that there was not an association between ENDS flavor use and intention to quit smoking or making a quit attempt. There were Very Low levels of certainty that nontobacco flavored versus tobacco/unflavored ENDS use was not associated with smoking cessation success, with similar findings for nonmenthol and nontobacco compared to tobacco and menthol flavored ENDS., Conclusion: The evidence about the role of different flavored ENDS use and smoking cessation outcomes is inconclusive, reflecting highly heterogeneous study definitions and methodological limitations. More high-quality evidence, ideally from randomized controlled trials, is required., Competing Interests: Mr. Cadham receives research funding from imvaria, Inc. for unrelated work. The remaining authors report no conflicts of interest., (© 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Importance: Many studies have reported a positive association of youth electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) use with subsequent cigarette smoking initiation, but it remains unclear whether e-cigarette use is associated with continued cigarette smoking after initiation., Objective: To assess the association of youth baseline e-cigarette use with their continued cigarette smoking 2 years after initiation., Design, Setting, and Participants: The Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study is a national longitudinal cohort study. This sample consisted of youth who participated in waves 3, 4, and 5 of the study (wave 3 was from October 2015 to October 2016, wave 4 was from December 2016 to January 2018, and wave 5 was from December 2018 to November 2019) and had never used cigarettes (cigarette-naive) by wave 3. The current analysis used multivariable logistic regressions in August 2022 to assess the association between e-cigarette use among cigarette-naive adolescents aged 12 to 17 years in 2015 and 2016 and subsequent continued cigarette smoking. PATH uses audio computer-assisted self-interviewing and computer-assisted personal interviewing to collect data., Exposures: Ever and current (past 30-day) use of e-cigarettes in wave 3., Main Outcomes and Measures: Continued cigarette smoking in wave 5 after initiating smoking in wave 4., Results: The current sample included 8671 adolescents who were cigarette naive in wave 3 and also participated in waves 4 and 5; 4823 of the participants (55.4%) were aged 12 to 14 years, 4454 (51.1%) were male, and 3763 (51.0%) were non-Hispanic White. Overall, regardless of e-cigarette use, few adolescents (362 adolescents [4.1%]) initiated cigarette smoking at wave 4, and even fewer (218 participants [2.5%]) continued smoking at wave 5. Controlling for multiple covariates, the adjusted odds ratio of baseline ever e-cigarette use, compared with never e-cigarette use, was 1.81 (95% CI, 1.03 to 3.18) for continued smoking measured as past 30-day smoking at wave 5. However, the adjusted risk difference (aRD) was small and not significant. The aRD was 0.88 percentage point (95% CI, -0.13 to 1.89 percentage points) for continued smoking, with the absolute risk being 1.19% (95% CI, 0.79% to 1.59%) for never e-cigarette users and 2.07% (95% CI, 1.01% to 3.13%) for ever e-cigarette users. Similar results were found using an alternative measure of continued smoking (lifetime ≥100 cigarettes and current smoking at wave 5) and using baseline current e-cigarette use as the exposure measure., Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, absolute and relative measures of risks yielded findings suggesting very different interpretations of the association. Although there were statistically significant odds ratios of continued smoking comparing baseline e-cigarette users with nonusers, the minor risk differences between them, along with the small absolute risks, suggest that few adolescents are likely to continue smoking after initiation regardless of baseline e-cigarette use.

Objective: To synthesize the outcomes of policy evaluations of flavoured electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) restrictions., Data Sources: PubMed, Scopus, Embase and Web of Science before May 3, 2022., Study Selection: Studies that report sales, behaviour, or compliance outcomes related to implemented or hypothetical ENDS flavour restrictions., Data Extraction: Restriction details, whether implemented or hypothetical, whether additional products were restricted, jurisdictional level, study locations, and outcomes classified by sales, behaviour, and compliance., Data Synthesis: We included 30 studies. Of those, 26 were conducted exclusively in the US, two in India, and two surveyed respondents in multiple countries, including the US. Twenty-one evaluated implemented restrictions, while nine considered hypothetical restrictions. Five studies evaluated product sales, 17 evaluated behaviour, and 10 evaluated compliance, with two studies reporting multiple outcomes. Two studies reported an increase and one a reduction in cigarette sales following restrictions, while three reported reductions in ENDS sales. Behavioural studies presented a mixed view of the impacts of regulations on ENDS and cigarette use. However, the use of disparate outcomes limits the comparability of studies. Studies of hypothetical restrictions suggest decreased ENDS use, increased cigarette use, and increased use of illicit markets. Studies of compliance with flavoured product restrictions that included ENDS found that 6-39% of stores sold restricted flavoured products post-restrictions. Online stores remain a potential source of restricted products., Conclusion: Our findings highlight the need for additional research on the impacts of ENDS restrictions. Research should further evaluate the impact of restrictions on youth and adult use of nicotine and tobacco products in addition to the effects of restrictions in countries beyond the US to enable a robust consideration of the harm-benefit trade-off of restrictions., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Introduction: We calculate the U.S. adult smoking cessation rate for 2014-2019, compare it to the historical trend, and estimate the implication for future smoking prevalence., Methods: We repeated an earlier analysis, which examined the cessation rate from 1990 to 2014, extending the period to 2019. Employing National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) data, we estimated the adult cessation rate in 6-year intervals, using weighted nonlinear least squares. We then employed a meta-regression model to test whether the cessation rate has increased beyond expectation. We used cessation rate estimates and smoking initiation rate estimates to project smoking prevalence in 2030 and eventual steady-state prevalence., Results: The annual cessation rate increased 29% using NHIS data (from 4.2% in 2008-2013 to 5.4% in 2014-2019) and 33% with NSDUH data (4.2%-5.6%). The cessation rate increase accounts for 60% of a smoking prevalence decline in the most recent period exceeding the 1990-2013 predicted trend. The remaining 40% owes to declining smoking initiation. With current initiation and cessation rates, smoking prevalence should fall to 8.3% in 2030 and eventually reach a steady state of 3.53%., Conclusions: The smoking cessation rate continued to increase during 2014-2019. NHIS and NSDUH results are practically identical. The larger share (60%) of the smoking prevalence decrease, beyond expectation, attributable to the increased cessation rate is encouraging since the positive health effects of cessation occur much sooner than those derived from declining initiation., Implications: The smoking cessation rate in the United States continues to increase, accelerating the decline in smoking prevalence. This increase suggests that the Healthy People 2030 goal of 5% adult smoking prevalence, while ambitious, is attainable. Our findings can be used in simulation and statistical models that aim to predict future prevalence and population health effects due to smoking under various scenarios., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco.)

Introduction: Tobacco couponing continues to be part of contemporary tobacco marketing in the United States. We performed a systematic review of the evidence of tobacco product coupon receipt and redemption to inform regulation., Aims and Methods: We searched EMBASE OVID and Medline databases for observational (cross-sectional and longitudinal) studies that examined the prevalence of tobacco coupon receipt and coupon redemption across different subpopulations, as well as studies of the association between coupon receipt and redemption with tobacco initiation and cessation at follow-up. We extracted unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios for the associations between coupon exposure (receipt, redemption) and tobacco use outcomes (initiation, cessation) and assessed each studies' potential risk of bias., Results: Twenty-seven studies met the criteria for inclusion. Of 60 observations extracted, 37 measured coupon receipt, nine measured coupon redemption, eight assessed tobacco use initiation, and six assessed cessation. Tobacco product coupon receipt and redemption tended to be more prevalent among younger adults, women, lower education individuals, members of sexual and gender minorities, and more frequent tobacco users. Coupon receipt at baseline was associated with greater initiation. Coupon receipt and redemption at baseline were associated with lower cessation at follow-up among tobacco users. Results in high-quality studies did not generally differ from all studies., Conclusions: Tobacco product coupon receipt and redemption are often more prevalent among price-sensitive subpopulations. Most concerning, our results suggest coupon receipt may be associated with higher tobacco initiation and lower tobacco cessation. Couponing thereby increases the toll of tobacco use and could prove to be a viable public health policy intervention point., Implications: A systematic review was conducted of the scientific literature about the receipt, redemption, and effects on tobacco initiation and cessation of tobacco product couponing. This review found that tobacco coupons are more often received by price-sensitive persons and these coupons serve to increase tobacco initiation and decrease tobacco cessation. Policy efforts to address these consequences may help curb tobacco's harms and address health inequities., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Growth in the market for electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) raises complex questions about the devices' public health implications and, hence, challenging policy issues. We propose a policy agenda addressing concerns about preventing youth uptake of e-cigarettes and the desire to realize the potential of e-cigarettes to increase adult cigarette smoking cessation. We organize interventions according to the "four Ps" of marketing: product, price, place, and promotion. Policies include decreasing the addictiveness of combusted tobacco products while ensuring the availability of consumer-acceptable reduced-risk nicotine products, imposing large taxes on combustible products and smaller taxes on e-cigarettes, limiting the sale of all tobacco and (nonmedicinal) nicotine products to adult-only retailers, and developing communications that accurately portray e-cigarettes' risks to youth and benefits for inveterate adult smokers. All members of the public health community should unite to pursue a shared commitment to the principle that both youth and adults deserve a future free of tobacco-related disease.

E-cigarettes are often marketed as a safer alternative to combustible cigarettes. However, their health effects, especially those associated with long-term use, remain largely uncertain. We conducted an umbrella review of the cardiopulmonary and carcinogenic risks of e-cigarette use, distinguishing between short-term and long-term health effects. The search for systematic reviews was conducted across four electronic databases through 25 January 2022. Methodological quality was assessed using the AMSTAR-2 quality appraisal tool. Seventeen systematic reviews, including five meta-analyses, were included in our umbrella review. There was a clear underreporting of e-cigarette devices and e-liquid types, e-cigarette and cigarette exposure, and the health and smoking status of study participants. Overall, the findings suggest that short-term use of e-cigarettes may be associated with acute cardiopulmonary risks, although to a lesser extent than cigarette use. Long-term e-cigarette use may have pulmonary/respiratory benefits in those who switch from chronic cigarette smoking, particularly in individuals with asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Evidence on intermediate and long-term carcinogenic effects is lacking. This umbrella review underscores the urgent need for systematic reviews with better adherence to established reporting guidelines, consistent definitions of duration of e-cigarette use, a focus on newer devices, and accounting for the impacts of former or current smoking.

Aims: To investigate whether e-cigarette and cigarette susceptibility predict e-cigarette and cigarette use among American youth 1 year later., Design and Setting: Longitudinal data from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study-a four-stage, stratified probability cohort study of youth (12-17 years old) sampled from the United States civilian, non-institutionalized population. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the association between initial product-specific susceptibility and subsequent cigarette smoking and e-cigarette use while controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, exposure to nicotine users, and behavioral risk factors., Participants: The sample included 8841 adolescent never nicotine users at initial survey who participated in both wave 4 (2016-2017) and wave 4.5 (2017-2018) of PATH., Measurements: We measured cigarette and e-cigarette susceptibility (defined as a lack of a firm commitment to not use cigarettes or e-cigarettes) among never nicotine users at baseline (wave 4) as well as cigarette and e-cigarette use at 12-month follow-up (wave 4.5)., Findings: Youth e-cigarette susceptibility was statistically significantly (P < 0.05) associated with e-cigarette use 1 year later, for both past 12-month (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.99; 95% CI, 2.29-3.90) and past 30-day e-cigarette use (aOR, 2.73; 95% CI, 1.78-4.16), but not with cigarette smoking (aOR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.64-1.73 for past 12-month smoking and aOR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.29-1.45 for past 30-day smoking. Smoking susceptibility predicted subsequent smoking in the past 12 months (aOR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.09-3.03) and past 30 days (aOR, 3.32; 95% CI (1.33-8.29), but not e-cigarette use in the past 12 months (aOR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.77-1.19) or past 30 days (aOR, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.82-1.51)., Conclusion: E-cigarette and cigarette susceptibility measures appear to predict product-specific use among youth 1 year later., (© 2022 Society for the Study of Addiction.)

Importance: Electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) use has been reported to increase the likelihood of future cigarette smoking among adolescents. The prospective association between e-cigarette use and cannabis use has been less clear, especially in recent years., Objective: To examine the association between e-cigarette use among cannabis-naive adolescents and cannabis use 1 year later., Design, Setting, and Participants: The Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, a nationally representative cohort study, uses a 4-stage, stratified probability sample design to select participants aged 12 years or older from the US civilian, noninstitutionalized population. This study sample included 9828 cannabis-naive adolescents at the baseline survey who participated in both wave 4.5 (2017-2018) and wave 5 (2018-2019) of PATH., Exposures: e-Cigarette use, assessed by ever use, past 12-month use, and past 30-day use., Main Outcomes and Measures: Cannabis use in wave 5, assessed by past 12-month and past 30-day use. Multivariable logistic regressions assessed the association between e-cigarette use and cannabis use 1 year later. Results were weighted to produce nationally representative findings., Results: Of the 9828 adolescents included in the analysis, 5361 (57.3%) were aged 12 to 14 years, 5056 (50.7%) were male, and 4481 (53.0%) were non-Hispanic White. After adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics, environmental factors, other substance use, and sensation seeking, e-cigarette use among cannabis-naive adolescents was associated with increased likelihoods of both self-reported past 12-month and past 30-day cannabis use 1 year later. The adjusted relative risks (aRRs) of subsequent past 12-month cannabis use with ever use of e-cigarettes was 2.57 (95% CI, 2.04-3.09), with past 12-month use of e-cigarettes was 2.62 (95% CI, 2.10-3.15), and with past 30-day use of e-cigarettes was 2.18 (95% CI, 1.50-2.85). The aRRs of subsequent past 30-day cannabis use with ever use of e-cigarettes was 3.20 (95% CI, 2.10-4.31), with past 12-month use of e-cigarettes was 3.40 (95% CI, 2.17-4.63), and with past 30-day use of e-cigarettes was 2.96 (95% CI, 1.52-4.40)., Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study's findings suggest a strong association between adolescent e-cigarette use and subsequent cannabis use. However, despite the strong association at the individual level, e-cigarette use seems to have had a minimal association with the prevalence of youth cannabis use at the population level.

Introduction: Prospective studies have consistently reported a strong association between e-cigarette use and subsequent cigarette smoking, but many failed to adjust for important risk factors., Methods: Using longitudinal data from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, we employed multivariable logistic regressions to assess the adolescent vaping-to-smoking relationship, with four regressions (Models 1-4) sequentially adding more risk factors.Our sample included all waves (waves 1-5) of the PATH Study., Results: The association between ever e-cigarette use and subsequent cigarette smoking decreased substantially in magnitude when adding more control variables, including respondents' sociodemographic characteristics, exposure to tobacco users, cigarette susceptibility, and behavioral risk factors. Using the most recent data (waves 4-4.5 and waves 4.5-5), this association was not significant in the most complete model (Model 4). Using wave 4.5-5 data, the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for ever e-cigarette use at initial wave and subsequent past 12-month smoking declined from 4.07 (95% confidence interval [CI, 2.86-5.81) in Model 1, adjusting only for sociodemographic characteristics, to 1.35 (95% CI, 0.84-2.16) in Model 4, adjusting for all potential risk factors. Similarly, the aOR of ever e-cigarette use and past 30-day smoking at wave 5 decreased from 3.26 (95% CI, 1.81-5.86) in Model 1 to 1.21 (95% CI, 0.59-2.48) with all covariates (Model 4)., Conclusions: Among adolescent never cigarette smokers, those who had ever used e-cigarettes at baseline, compared with never e-cigarette users, exhibited modest or non-significant increases in subsequent past 12-month or past 30-day smoking when adjusting for behavioral risk factors., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco.)

Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared.