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This work investigates how potential changes in trade patterns resulting from increased economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region may affect the risk for nonindigenous species spread to the United States. We construct an invasion risk index utilizing the results from a global economic modeling framework in tandem with data for climate similarities between trade partners. The index is based on risk of introduction, determined by changes in trade, and risk of establishment, given by terrestrial and marine climate similarities between countries. The results indicate that Japan may be the riskiest trade partner for the United States in the Asia-Pacific region from a nonindigenous species perspective. This is driven by large expected changes in trade and high environmental similarity between the two countries. This research provides the basis of a risk assessment prediction system to examine the effects of changes in trade on nonindigenous species risk, an important, novel contribution to the trade policy literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Feedbacks between the ecosystem and the economy are important to consider when measuring impacts from a disturbance but are often omitted from general equilibrium bioeconomic models. These models usually focus on how humans respond to ecological change, but do not consider that in adapting to changed conditions, humans can further affect the ecosystem. We present a framework that couples a regional computable general equilibrium model with an Ecopath with Ecosim food web model with bidirectional feedbacks between the two systems. Our bioeconomic model uniquely represents a comprehensive mapping of the entire regional economy, including recreational and commercial fishing, harvest quotas, and fish biomass in the economic system. We simulate the bioeconomic impacts of a potential Asian carp invasion of Lake Erie's food web and regional economy with and without bidirectional feedbacks between the economy and the ecosystem. When feedbacks are omitted there are large ecological variations in the projected biomass levels of many target species, with differences in biomass of up to 80 percentage points. Results demonstrate the need to reflect bidirectional feedbacks between the economy and the ecosystem; omission of these feedbacks in this case may appear to be economically trivial yet have large ecological consequences. • Bidirectional feedbacks between the economy and ecosystem are important. • Ignoring the bidirectional feedbacks leads to inaccurate biomass projections. • Computable general equilibrium model is combined with an Ecosim with Ecopath model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study builds a general equilibrium model of ecosystem services, with sectors of the economy competing for use of the environment. The model recognizes that production processes in the real world require a combination of natural and human inputs, and understanding the value of these inputs and their competing uses is necessary when considering policies of resource conservation. We demonstrate the model with a numerical example of the Mississippi-Atchafalaya river basin, in which grain production in the upper basin causes hypoxia that causes damages to the downstream fishing industry. We show that the size of damages is dependent on both environmental and economic shocks. While the potential damages to fishing are large, most of the damage occurs from economic forces rather than a more intensive use of nitrogen fertilizers. We show that these damages are exacerbated by increases in rainfall, which will likely get worse with climate change. We discuss welfare effects from a tax on nitrogen fertilizers and investments in riparian buffers. A 3% nitrogen tax would reduce the size of the hypoxic zone by 11% at a cost of 2% of Iowa's corn output. In comparison, riparian buffers are likely to be less costly and more popular politically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We test the effect of water and natural resources on refugee migration. We show that water abundance decreases the number of refugees migrating out of a country and increases the number of refugees migrating into a county, all else equal. A large resource sector increases the likelihood of out-migration and decreases the likelihood of in-migration, giving support to a resource–conflict link. Opportunities in the resource sector lead to pooling of migrants into resource-dependent countries that are not at war. Expected migration is highest when the destination country has abundant water and a small resource sector. Expected migration is lowest when the source country has abundant water and a large resource sector. Characteristics of the destination country have larger impacts than characteristics of the source country, suggesting decisions are more about what the destination country has to offer than what the source country lacks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article incorporates a political decision process into an urban land use model to predict the likely location of a public good. It fills an important gap in the literature by modeling the endogenous location of open space. The article compares open space decisions made under a majority rules voting scheme with welfare-improving criterion and finds households tied to a location in space compete for public goods. Significant differences emerge between the two decision criteria, indicating that requiring referenda for open space decisions is likely to lead to inefficient outcomes. Specifically, many open space votes are likely to fail that would lead to welfare improvements, and any open space decisions that do pass will require amenities larger than needed to achieve the social optimum. The more dispersed and large the population, the larger the gap between the socially efficient level and the level needed for a public referendum to pass. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper demonstrates how the slope of a production possibilities frontier (PPF) can be used to empirically identify the presence of an ecosystem externality. Complementarity between non-market ecosystem services implies the PPF between these services may be upward sloping. In contrast, private landowners that ignore these complementarities will treat non-market ecosystem services as competing products thereby ensuring a downward sloping PPF. Using data from 738 U.S. watersheds, we compare the slope of PPFs on predominately private and predominately public watersheds. We find evidence that private markets are failing to internalize complementarities between forest habitat and two other non-market ecosystem services: instream flows and grazing. In addition, we show how three-stage least squares regression can be used to reduce endogeneity bias associated with more common approaches to estimating ecosystem service relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Colorado's water supply is under threat due to climate change pressures and population growth, however Colorado has been recognized to have some of the most progressive water conservation programs in the country. Limiting outdoor water consumption is an increasingly popular approach to conserving water in semi-arid cities, yet in order to implement effective water reduction and conservation policies, more utilities and city managers need a firm understanding of the local drivers of outdoor water consumption. This research explores the drivers of outdoor water consumption in a semi-arid, medium-sized Colorado city that is projected to undergo significant population growth. We used a combination of correlation and linear regression analyses to identify the key descriptive variables that predict greater water consumption at the household scale. Some results were specific to the development patterns of this medium-sized city, where outdoor water use increased 7% for each additional mile (1.6 km) a household was located from the historic urban center. Similarly, more expensive homes used more water as well. Surprisingly, households with a higher ratio of vegetation cover to parcel size tended toward less water consumption. This result could be because parcels that are shaded by their tree canopy require less irrigation. We discuss these results to assist city managers and policymakers in creating water-efficient landscapes and provide information that can be leveraged to increase awareness for water conservation in a growing, semi-arid city. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the COVID-19 pandemic, US public land managers faced the challenge of catering to large increases in camping demand, while maintaining social distancing guidelines. In this paper, we use multivariate linear regression to analyze weekly changes in reservations to US Forest Service (USFS) campgrounds between 2019 and 2020. The regression models estimate the impact of local COVID infection rates, public health restrictions, and spatial spillovers from proximity to National Parks (NPs), metropolitan areas and wildfire on camping demand. Our sample includes 1,688 individual USFS campgrounds from across the contiguous US. The results illustrate the dramatic increases in camping on USFS land that occurred in the summer of 2020 and demonstrate that increases in local infection rates led to significant increases in camping nights reserved in the summer. The results also illustrate that the increase in camping nights reserved at USFS campgrounds was particularly dramatic for campgrounds located near large metropolitan areas and near NPs that saw increases in overall recreational visits. These results point to the important role that public lands played during the pandemic and can help guide public land resource allocations for campground maintenance and operation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the potential effects of future commercial shipping through the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage on the spread of nonindigenous species (NIS) between Europe, the United States, and the Asia-Pacific region. We modeled NIS spread risk as a function of two factors: NIS introduction and NIS establishment. The change in risk of NIS introduction from one region to another is based on the expected commodity trade flow between the two regions given Arctic shipping routes. The risk of NIS establishment is based on current marine climate similarities between regions and projected 2030 terrestrial climate similarities. Results indicate that the United States, China, and Japan are at greatest risk for increased terrestrial and marine NIS spread to and from one another given their relatively high levels of trading activity and terrestrial and marine climate similarities. While increased trade between European and Asia-Pacific countries is expected in the future, only Japan has terrestrial climate similar enough to that of European countries to be considered a substantial terrestrial NIS spread risk, while China has the potential to increase the risk of marine NIS species spread in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change, with warming temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns, may increase natural-caused forest fire activity. Increasing natural-caused fires throughout western United States national forests could place people, property, and infrastructure at risk in the future. We used the fine K nearest neighbor (KNN) method coupled with the downscaled Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) climate dataset to estimate changes in the rate of natural-caused fires in western United States national forests. We projected changes in the rate of minor and major forest fires from historical (1986–2015) to future (2070–2099) conditions to characterize fire-prone national forests under a range of climate change scenarios. The results indicate that climate change can add to the occurrence of forest fires in western United States national forests, particularly in Rocky Mountain, Pacific Southwest, and Southwestern United States Forest Service regions. Although summer months are projected to have the highest rate of natural-caused forest fire activity in the future, the rate of natural-caused forest fires is likely to increase from August to December in the future compared to the historical conditions. Improved understanding of altered forest fire regimes can help forest managers to better understand the potential effects of climate change on future fire activity and implement actions to attenuate possible negative consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We examine the relationship between risk aversion and both self-reported and objective measures of wildfire risk mitigation. • We find risk aversion to be similarly correlated with self-reported and objective measures of wildfire risk mitigation. • We find risk aversion to be positively correlated with defensible space and not correlated with structural hardening. In this article, we empirically examine whether the relationship between risk aversion and self-reported risk mitigating behavior is similar to the relationship between risk aversion and an objective measure of risk mitigating behavior. Despite higher levels of risk mitigation in the self-reported measure relative to the objective measure, we find risk aversion is similarly correlated with both measures of wildfire risk mitigation. These results provide some confidence in the use of self-reported behaviors in examinations of risk preferences and risky behaviors, even if the self-reports understate objective behavioral measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global ballast water management regulations aiming to decrease aquatic species invasion require actions that can increase shipping costs. We employ an integrated shipping cost and global economic modeling approach to investigate the impacts of ballast water regulations on bilateral trade, national economies, and shipping patterns. Given the potential need for more stringent regulation at regional hotspots of species invasions, this work considers two ballast water treatment policy scenarios: implementation of current international regulations, and a possible stricter regional regulation that targets ships traveling to and from the United States while other vessels continue to face current standards. We find that ballast water management compliance costs under both scenarios lead to modest negative impacts on international trade and national economies overall. However, stricter regulations applied to U.S. ports are expected to have large negative impacts on bilateral trade of several specific commodities for a few countries. Trade diversion causes decreased U.S. imports of some products, leading to minor economic welfare losses. • Ballast water policy compliance costs vary across vessel types and trade routes. • Current and stricter ballast water regulations have small aggregate economic impacts. • Stricter regulation shows large impacts on bilateral trade of specific commodities. • Trade diversion causes decreased U.S. imports of some products and welfare losses. • Uniform and stricter standards cause modest global shipping pattern changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]