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The discipline of "Space Weather" is built on the scientific foundation of solar-terrestrial physics but with a strong orientation toward applied research. Models describing the solar-terrestrial environment are therefore at the heart of this discipline, for both physical understanding of the processes involved and establishing predictive capabilities of the consequences of these processes. Depending on the requirements, purely physical models, semi-empirical or empirical models are considered to be the most appropriate. This review focuses on the interaction of solar wind disturbances with geospace. We cover interplanetary space, the Earth's magnetosphere (with the exception of radiation belt physics), the ionosphere (with the exception of radio science), the neutral atmosphere and the ground (via electromagnetic induction fields). Space weather relevant state-of-the-art physical and semi-empirical models of the various regions are reviewed. They include models for interplanetary space, its quiet state and the evolution of recurrent and transient solar perturbations (corotating interaction regions, coronal mass ejections, their interplanetary remnants, and solar energetic particle fluxes). Models of coupled large-scale solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere processes (global magnetohydrodynamic descriptions) and of inner magnetosphere processes (ring current dynamics) are discussed. Achievements in modeling the coupling between magnetospheric processes and the neutral and ionized upper and middle atmospheres are described. Finally we mention efforts to compile comprehensive and flexible models from selections of existing modules applicable to particular regions and conditions in interplanetary space and geospace.

We present a multi-instrument study of a substorm bursty bulk flow (BBF) and auroral streamer. During a substorm on 25 August 2003, which was one of a series of substorms that occurred between 00:00 and 05:00 UT, the Cluster spacecraft encountered a BBF event travelling Earthwards and duskwards with a velocity of ~500 km s−1 some nine minutes after the onset of the substorm. Coincident with this event the IMAGE spacecraft detected an auroral streamer in the substorm auroral bulge in the Southern Hemisphere near the footpoints of the Cluster spacecraft. Using FluxGate Magnetometer (FGM) data from the four Cluster spacecraft, we determine the field-aligned currents in the BBF, using the curlometer technique, to have been ~5 mA km−2. When projected into the ionosphere, these currents give ionospheric field-aligned currents of ~18 A km−2, which is comparable with previously observed ionospheric field-aligned currents associated with BBFs and auroral streamers. The observations of the BBF are consistent with the plasma "bubble" model of Chen and Wolf (1993). Furthermore, we show that the observations of the BBF are consistent with the creation of the BBF by the reconnection of open field lines Earthward of a substorm associated near-Earth neutral line.

We examine magnetic flux closure during an ex- tended substorm interval on 29 August 2004 involving a two-stage onset and subsequent re-intensifications. Cluster and Double Star provide observations of magnetotail dy- namics, while the corresponding auroral evolution, convec- tion response, and substorm current wedge development are monitored by IMAGE FUV, SuperDARN, and the Greenland magnetometer chain, respectively. The first stage of onset is associated with the reconnection of closed flux in the plasma sheet; this is accompanied by a short-lived auroral intensification, a modest substorm current wedge magnetic bay, but no significant ionospheric convection enhancement. The second stage follows the progression of reconnection to the open field lines of the lobes; accompanied by prolonged auroral bulge and westward-travelling surge development, enhanced magnetic bays and convection. We find that the tail dynamics are highly influenced by ongoing dayside creation of open flux, leading to flux pile-up in the near-tail and a step-wise down-tail motion of the tail reconnection site. In all, 5 dipolarizations are observed, each associated with the closure of ∼0.1 GWb of flux. Very simple calculations indicate that the X-line should progress down-tail at a speed of 20 km s−1, or 6 RE between each dipolarization.

We present multi-point observations of a substorm which took place on 29 August 2004. The near-Earth magnetotail dynamics were observed by Cluster C1 and Double Star TC1, in conjunction with observations of the Northern Hemisphere ionospheric convection flow from the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (Super- DARN), of the Southern Hemisphere auroral morpholo- gy from the Wideband Imaging Camera of the Far Ul- traviolet instrument onboard the Imager for Magneto- pause-to-Aurora Global Exploration spacecraft (IMAGE FUV/WIC), and of ionospheric substorm currents from the Greenland magnetometer chain. Following the substorm growth phase, expansion phase onset results in the closure of open magnetic flux for 3 hours, prolonged by continued creation of open flux at the dayside. The 3-hour duration of the substorm was punctuated by 5 dipolarizations which we interpret as individual bursts of reconnection, each closing ~0.125 GWb of flux. As- sociated with each dipolarization were auroral en- hancements, convection enhancements and a step-wise poleward progression of the substorm current wedge. We derive the amount of open flux in the magnetos- phere from observations of the ionospheric polar cap, along with the corresponding rates of dayside and night- side reconnection. From these we can model the chang- ing length of the magnetotail and variations in its radius, flaring, and lobe field strength during the course of the growth and expansion phases of the substorm. Despite the simplicity of this modeling, we demonstrate good agreement between predicted lobe field strength and the observations of Cluster.

We present data from both ground- and space- based instruments for a substorm event which occurred on 5 October 2002, with an expansion phase onset time of 02:50 UT determined from the ground magnetometer data. During this substorm, the Cluster spacecraft were located around 15 RE downtail, 8 RE from midnight in the pre- midnight sector and just 2 RE above the equatorial plane (in GSM coordinates). At expansion phase onset the Cluster spacecraft were located in the plasma sheet, tailward of a near-Earth neutral line and detected a significant time delay of 6 min between the tail field Bz component becoming negative and the subsequent detection of Earthward flows. This is explained by the formation of a tailward-directed travel- ling compression region initially Earthward of the spacecraft; 7 min later the Cluster spacecraft entered the plasma sheet boundary layer; they remained in and close to the plasma sheet boundary layer for around 15 min before exiting to the lobe. The spacecraft then re-entered the plasma sheet 30 min after onset. Earthward then tailward directed currents detected in the plasma sheet boundary layer after onset indicate that the Cluster spacecraft encountered the dawnward and duskward portions of the reconnection flow associated current system with Region 1 sense, respectively. The reconnection site and current system were initially skewed towards the pre-midnight sector, consistent with previous observations that found the majority of substorm onsets located in this sector. At later times the reconnection site and current system had moved towards dawn, to be located more centrally in the midnight sector.

We study a series of transient entries into the low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL) of all four Cluster spacecraft during an outbound pass through the mid-afternoon magnetopause ([X(GSM), Y(GSM), Z(GSM)] approximate to [2, 7, 9] R(E)). The events take place during an interval of northward IMF, as seen in the data from the ACE satellite and lagged by a propagation delay of 75 min that is well-defined by two separate studies: (1) the magnetospheric variations prior to the northward turning (Lockwood et al., 2001, this issue) and (2) the field clock angle seen by Cluster after it had emerged into the magnetosheath (Opgenoorth et al., 2001, this issue). With an additional lag of 16.5 min, the transient LLBL events cor-relate well with swings of the IMF clock angle (in GSM) to near 90degrees. Most of this additional lag is explained by ground-based observations, which reveal signatures of transient reconnection in the pre-noon sector that then take 10-15 min to propagate eastward to 15 MLT, where they are observed by Cluster. The eastward phase speed of these signatures agrees very well with the motion deduced by the cross-correlation of the signatures seen on the four Cluster spacecraft. The evidence that these events are reconnection pulses includes: transient erosion of the noon 630 nm (cusp/cleft) aurora to lower latitudes; transient and travelling enhancements of the flow into the polar cap, imaged by the AMIE technique; and poleward-moving events moving into the polar cap, seen by the EISCAT Svalbard Radar (ESR). A pass of the DMSP-F15 satellite reveals that the open field lines near noon have been opened for some time: the more recently opened field lines were found closer to dusk where the flow transient and the poleward-moving event intersected the satellite pass. The events at Cluster have ion and electron characteristics predicted and observed by Lockwood and Hapgood (1998) for a Flux Transfer Event (FTE), with allowance for magnetospheric ion reflection at Alf

On Dec 07 2000, during 1330-1530 UT the MIR-ACLE allsky camera at Ny ° Alesund observed auroras at high latitudes (MLAT ¢76 ) simultaneously when the Clus-ter spacecraft were skimming the magnetopause in the same MLT se

During the interval between 8:00–9:30 on 14 January 2001, the four Cluster spacecraft were moving from the central magnetospheric lobe, through the dusk sector mantle, on their way towards intersecting the magnetopause near 15:00 MLT and 15:00 UT. Throughout this interval, the EISCAT Svalbard Radar (ESR) at Longyearbyen observed a series of poleward-moving transient events of enhanced F-region plasma concentration (“polar cap patches”), with a repetition period of the order of 10 min. Allowing for the estimated solar wind propagation delay of 75 (±5)min, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) had a southward component during most of the interval. The magnetic footprint of the Cluster spacecraft, mapped to the ionosphere using the Tsyganenko T96 model (with input conditions prevailing during this event), was to the east of the ESR beams. Around 09:05 UT, the DMSP-F12 satellite flew over the ESR and showed a sawtooth cusp ion dispersion signature that also extended into the electrons on the equatorward edge of the cusp, revealing a pulsed magnetopause reconnection. The consequent enhanced ionospheric flow events were imaged by the SuperDARN HF backscatter radars. The average convection patterns (derived using the AMIE technique on data from the magnetometers, the EISCAT and SuperDARN radars, and the DMSP satellites) show that the associated poleward-moving events also convected over the predicted footprint of the Cluster spacecraft. Cluster observed enhancements in the fluxes of both electrons and ions. These events were found to be essentially identical at all four spacecraft, indicating that they had a much larger spatial scale than the satellite separation of the order of 600 km. Some of the events show a correspondence between the lowest energy magnetosheath electrons detected by the PEACE instrument on Cluster (10–20 eV) and the topside ionospheric enhancements seen by the ESR (at 400–700 km). We suggest that a potential barrier at the magnetopause, which preven

On 14 January 2001, the four Cluster spacecraft passed through the northern magnetospheric mantle in close conjunction to the EISCAT Svalbard Radar (ESR) and approached the post-noon dayside magnetopause over Greenland between 13:00 and 14:00 UT. During that interval, a sudden reorganisation of the high-latitude dayside convection pattern accurred after 13:20 UT, most likely caused by a direction change of the Solar wind magnetic field. The result was an eastward and poleward directed flow-channel, as monitored by the SuperDARN radar network and also by arrays of ground-based magnetometers in Canada, Greenland and Scandinavia. After an initial eastward and later poleward expansion of the flow-channel between 13:20 and 13:40 UT, the four Cluster spacecraft, and the field line footprints covered by the eastward looking scan cycle of the Sondre Stromfjord incoherent scatter radar were engulfed by cusp-like precipitation with transient magnetic and electric field signatures. In addition, the EISCAT Svalbard Radar detected strong transient effects of the convection reorganisation, a poleward moving precipitation, and a fast ion flow-channel in association with the auroral structures that suddenly formed to the west and north of the radar. From a detailed analysis of the coordinated Cluster and ground-based data, it was found that this extraordinary transient convection pattern, indeed, had moved the cusp precipitation from its former pre-noon position into the late post-noon sector, allowing for the first and quite unexpected encounter of the cusp by the Cluster spacecraft. Our findings illustrate the large amplitude of cusp dynamics even in response to moderate solar wind forcing. The global ground-based data proves to be an invaluable tool to monitor the dynamics and width of the affected magnetospheric regions.

We study a series of transient entries into the low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL) of all four Cluster spacecraft during an outbound pass through the mid-afternoon magnetopause ([XGSM,YGSM,ZGSM] ≈ [2,7,9]RE). The events take place during an interval of northward IMF, as seen in the data from the ACE satellite and lagged by a propagation delay of 75 min that is well-defined by two separate studies: (1) the magnetospheric variations prior to the northward turning (Lockwood et al., 2001, this issue) and (2) the field clock angle seen by Cluster after it had emerged into the magnetosheath (Opgenoorth et al., 2001, this issue). With an additional lag of 16.5 min, the transient LLBL events correlate well with swings of the IMF clock angle (in GSM) to near 90 deg. Most of this additional lag is explained by ground-based observations, which reveal signatures of transient reconnection in the pre-noon sector that then take 10–15 min to propagate eastward to 15 MLT, where they are observed by Cluster. The eastward phase speed of these signatures agrees very well with the motion deduced by the cross-correlation of the signatures seen on the four Cluster spacecraft. The evidence that these events are reconnection pulses includes: transient erosion of the noon 630 nm (cusp/cleft) aurora to lower latitudes; transient and travelling enhancements of the flow into the polar cap, imaged by the AMIE technique; and poleward-moving events moving into the polar cap, seen by the EISCAT Svalbard Radar (ESR). A pass of the DMSP-F15 satellite reveals that the open field lines near noon have been opened for some time: the more recently opened field lines were found closer to dusk where the flow transient and the poleward-moving event intersected the satellite pass. The events at Cluster have ion and electron characteristics predicted and observed by Lockwood and Hapgood (1998) for a Flux Transfer Event (FTE), with allowance for magnetospheric ion reflection at Alfvenic disturbances in the magn