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Protected areas (PAs) are the primary strategy for slowing terrestrial biodiversity loss. Although expansion of PA coverage is prioritized under the Convention on Biological Diversity, it remains unknown whether PAs mitigate declines across the tetrapod tree of life and to what extent land cover and climate change modify PA effectiveness 1,2 . Here we analysed rates of change in abundance of 2,239 terrestrial vertebrate populations across the globe. On average, vertebrate populations declined five times more slowly within PAs (-0.4% per year) than at similar sites lacking protection (-1.8% per year). The mitigating effects of PAs varied both within and across vertebrate classes, with amphibians and birds experiencing the greatest benefits. The benefits of PAs were lower for amphibians in areas with converted land cover and lower for reptiles in areas with rapid climate warming. By contrast, the mitigating impacts of PAs were consistently augmented by effective national governance. This study provides evidence for the effectiveness of PAs as a strategy for slowing tetrapod declines. However, optimizing the growing PA network requires targeted protection of sensitive clades and mitigation of threats beyond PA boundaries. Provided the conditions of targeted protection, adequate governance and well-managed landscapes are met, PAs can serve a critical role in safeguarding tetrapod biodiversity., (© 2023. This is a U.S. Government work and not under copyright protection in the US; foreign copyright protection may apply.)

The legacy of the 'SL > SS principle', that a single or a few large habitat patches (SL) conserve more species than several small patches (SS), is evident in decisions to protect large patches while down-weighting small ones. However, empirical support for this principle is lacking, and most studies find either no difference or the opposite pattern (SS > SL). To resolve this dilemma, we propose a research agenda by asking, 'are there consistent, empirically demonstrated conditions leading to SL > SS?' We first review and summarize 'single large or several small' (SLOSS) theory and predictions. We found that most predictions of SL > SS assume that between-patch variation in extinction rate dominates the outcome of the extinction-colonization dynamic. This is predicted to occur when populations in separate patches are largely independent of each other due to low between-patch movements, and when species differ in minimum patch size requirements, leading to strong nestedness in species composition along the patch size gradient. However, even when between-patch variation in extinction rate dominates the outcome of the extinction-colonization dynamic, theory can predict SS > SL. This occurs if extinctions are caused by antagonistic species interactions or disturbances, leading to spreading-of-risk of landscape-scale extinction across SS. SS > SL is also predicted when variation in colonization dominates the outcome of the extinction-colonization dynamic, due to higher immigration rates for SS than SL, and larger species pools in proximity to SS than SL. Theory that considers change in species composition among patches also predicts SS > SL because of higher beta diversity across SS than SL. This results mainly from greater environmental heterogeneity in SS due to greater variation in micro-habitats within and across SS habitat patches ('across-habitat heterogeneity'), and/or more heterogeneous successional trajectories across SS than SL. Based on our review of the relevant theory, we develop the 'SLOSS cube hypothesis', where the combination of three variables - between-patch movement, the role of spreading-of-risk in landscape-scale population persistence, and across-habitat heterogeneity - predict the SLOSS outcome. We use the SLOSS cube hypothesis and existing SLOSS empirical evidence, to predict SL > SS only when all of the following are true: low between-patch movement, low importance of spreading-of-risk for landscape-scale population persistence, and low across-habitat heterogeneity. Testing this prediction will be challenging, as it will require many studies of species groups and regions where these conditions hold. Each such study would compare gamma diversity across multiple landscapes varying in number and sizes of patches. If the prediction is not generally supported across such tests, then the mechanisms leading to SL > SS are extremely rare in nature and the SL > SS principle should be abandoned., (© 2021 The Authors. Biological Reviews published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Cambridge Philosophical Society.)

Banks-Leite et al. (2021) claim that our suggestion of preserving ≥ 40% forest cover lacks evidence and can be problematic. We find these claims unfounded, and discuss why conservation planning urgently requires valuable, well-supported and feasible general guidelines like the 40% criterion. Using region-specific thresholds worldwide is unfeasible and potentially harmful., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Agriculture and development transform forest ecosystems to human-modified landscapes. Decades of research in ecology have generated myriad concepts for the appropriate management of these landscapes. Yet, these concepts are often contradictory and apply at different spatial scales, making the design of biodiversity-friendly landscapes challenging. Here, we combine concepts with empirical support to design optimal landscape scenarios for forest-dwelling species. The supported concepts indicate that appropriately sized landscapes should contain ≥ 40% forest cover, although higher percentages are likely needed in the tropics. Forest cover should be configured with c. 10% in a very large forest patch, and the remaining 30% in many evenly dispersed smaller patches and semi-natural treed elements (e.g. vegetation corridors). Importantly, the patches should be embedded in a high-quality matrix. The proposed landscape scenarios represent an optimal compromise between delivery of goods and services to humans and preserving most forest wildlife, and can therefore guide forest preservation and restoration strategies., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.)

Globally temperature of marine environments is on the rise and temperature plays an important role in the life-history of reptiles. In this study, we examined the relationship between sea surface temperature and average date of hatching for American crocodiles (Crocodylus acutus) over a 37-year period at two nesting sites, Everglades National Park and Florida Power and Light Turkey Point Power Plant site in southern Florida. Our results indicate that hatch dates are shifting 1.5 days earlier every two years and at half that rate for the Turkey Point site, and with every 1 °C degree increase in temperature, hatching occurs about 10 days earlier in the Everglades and 6 days earlier at Turkey Point. Our results on shifting hatch dates for American crocodiles provide further details about the impacts of temperature change on crocodile life history and suggest that increased temperature may affect their phenology., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. The findings and conclusions in this article are those of the author(s) and the U.S. Geological Survey but do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service., (Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Habitat loss is the primary driver of biodiversity decline worldwide, but the effects of fragmentation (the spatial arrangement of remaining habitat) are debated. We tested the hypothesis that forest fragmentation sensitivity-affected by avoidance of habitat edges-should be driven by historical exposure to, and therefore species' evolutionary responses to disturbance. Using a database containing 73 datasets collected worldwide (encompassing 4489 animal species), we found that the proportion of fragmentation-sensitive species was nearly three times as high in regions with low rates of historical disturbance compared with regions with high rates of disturbance (i.e., fires, glaciation, hurricanes, and deforestation). These disturbances coincide with a latitudinal gradient in which sensitivity increases sixfold at low versus high latitudes. We conclude that conservation efforts to limit edges created by fragmentation will be most important in the world's tropical forests., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

Human activities often replace native forests with warmer, modified habitats that represent novel thermal environments for biodiversity. Reducing biodiversity loss hinges upon identifying which species are most sensitive to the environmental conditions that result from habitat modification. Drawing on case studies and a meta-analysis, we examined whether observed and modelled thermal traits, including heat tolerances, variation in body temperatures, and evaporative water loss, explained variation in sensitivity of ectotherms to habitat modification. Low heat tolerances of lizards and amphibians and high evaporative water loss of amphibians were associated with increased sensitivity to habitat modification, often explaining more variation than non-thermal traits. Heat tolerances alone explained 24-66% (mean = 38%) of the variation in species responses, and these trends were largely consistent across geographic locations and spatial scales. As habitat modification alters local microclimates, the thermal biology of species will likely play a key role in the reassembly of terrestrial communities., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.)

Forest edges influence more than half of the world's forests and contribute to worldwide declines in biodiversity and ecosystem functions. However, predicting these declines is challenging in heterogeneous fragmented landscapes. Here we assembled a global dataset on species responses to fragmentation and developed a statistical approach for quantifying edge impacts in heterogeneous landscapes to quantify edge-determined changes in abundance of 1,673 vertebrate species. We show that the abundances of 85% of species are affected, either positively or negatively, by forest edges. Species that live in the centre of the forest (forest core), that were more likely to be listed as threatened by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), reached peak abundances only at sites farther than 200-400 m from sharp high-contrast forest edges. Smaller-bodied amphibians, larger reptiles and medium-sized non-volant mammals experienced a larger reduction in suitable habitat than other forest-core species. Our results highlight the pervasive ability of forest edges to restructure ecological communities on a global scale.

Land-cover and climate change are both expected to alter species distributions and contribute to future biodiversity loss. However, the combined effects of land-cover and climate change on assemblages, especially at the landscape scale, remain understudied. Lowland tropical amphibians may be particularly susceptible to changes in land cover and climate warming because many species have narrow thermal safety margins resulting from air and body temperatures that are close to their critical thermal maxima (CT max ). We examined how changing thermal landscapes may alter the area of thermally suitable habitat (TSH) for tropical amphibians. We measured microclimates in 6 land-cover types and CT max of 16 frog species in lowland northeastern Costa Rica. We used a biophysical model to estimate core body temperatures of frogs exposed to habitat-specific microclimates while accounting for evaporative cooling and behavior. Thermally suitable habitat area was estimated as the portion of the landscape where species CT max exceeded their habitat-specific maximum body temperatures. We projected changes in TSH area 80 years into the future as a function of land-cover change only, climate change only, and combinations of land-cover and climate-change scenarios representing low and moderate rates of change. Projected decreases in TSH area ranged from 16% under low emissions and reduced forest loss to 30% under moderate emissions and business-as-usual land-cover change. Under a moderate emissions scenario (A1B), climate change alone contributed to 1.7- to 4.5-fold greater losses in TSH area than land-cover change only, suggesting that future decreases in TSH from climate change may outpace structural habitat loss. Forest-restricted species had lower mean CT max than species that occurred in altered habitats, indicating that thermal tolerances will likely shape assemblages in changing thermal landscapes. In the face of ongoing land-cover and climate change, it will be critical to consider changing thermal landscapes in strategies to conserve ectotherm species., (© 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.)

The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.

Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species' threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project - and avert - future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups - including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems - http://www.predicts.org.uk). We make site-level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015.

The presence of multiple interacting threats to biodiversity and the increasing rate of species extinction make it critical to prioritize management efforts on species and communities that maximize conservation success. We implemented a multi-step approach that coupled vulnerability assessments evaluating threats to Florida taxa such as climate change, sea-level rise, and habitat fragmentation with in-depth literature surveys of taxon-specific ecological traits. The vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and ecological traits of 12 threatened and endangered subspecies were compared to non-listed subspecies of the same parent species. Overall, the threatened and endangered subspecies showed high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, in particular to sea level rise and habitat fragmentation. They also exhibited larger home ranges and greater dispersal limitation compared to non-endangered subspecies, which may inhibit their ability to track changing climate in fragmented landscapes. There was evidence for lower reproductive capacity in some of the threatened or endangered taxa, but not for most. Taxa located in the Florida Keys or in other low coastal areas were most vulnerable to sea level rise, and also showed low levels of adaptive capacity, indicating they may have a lower probability of conservation success. Our analysis of at-risk subspecies and closely related non-endangered subspecies demonstrates that ecological traits help to explain observed differences in vulnerability and adaptive capacity. This study points to the importance of assessing the relative contributions of multiple threats and evaluating conservation value at the species (or subspecies) level when resources are limited and several factors affect conservation success.

Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species' distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967-1971 (t1 ) and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998-2002 (t2). Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences) was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences) was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on species.

Risk models for vector-borne diseases rely on accurate quantification of the relationship between vector abundance and habitat, but this relationship can be obscured if habitats are modified by invasive species in ways that alter vector behavior but are undetectable in remotely sensed data. At a forest in eastern Missouri we assessed whether the presence of an invasive shrub, Amur honeysuckle, Lonicera maackii, affects oviposition by treehole mosquitoes, Aedes triseriatus, a primary vector of La Crosse virus in the United States. Oviposition significantly decreased with increasing density of L. maackii. Moreover, our results indicate that L. maackii may hinder the efficacy of models that use remotely sensed data to predict vector abundance: there was a strong relationship between landscape composition around plots and oviposition, but only in plots not invaded by L. maackii. Overlooking potentially important but cryptic effects of invasive plants on habitat selection by vectors may undermine accurate forecasting of disease risk.

Water-soluble phytochemicals produced by invasive plants may represent novel elements of invaded ecosystems that can precipitate a variety of direct and indirect effects on native organisms. Phenolic compounds in particular are a common plant defense, and these compounds may have disproportionate impacts on amphibians compared to other taxa. We coupled an exploration of invasive plant extract effects on larvae of four amphibian species (the salamander Ambystoma maculatum, the toad Anaxyrus americanus, and the frogs Hyla sp. and Lithobates blairi) with behavioral observations designed to determine whether behavior can ameliorate the negative effects of exposure to invasive plant extracts. Larvae were reared in extracts of the widespread invasive Amur honeysuckle (Lonicera maackii), mixed native leaf litter, and a water control. Anaxyrus americanus tadpoles reared in L. maackii extracts were more likely to die than tadpoles reared in native extracts, but differences in mortality following rearing in native and exotic extracts were not significant for the other three species. Anaxyrus americanus and L. blairi tadpoles made more trips to the surface in L. maackii extracts than in native extracts, consistent with the hypothesis that exotic extracts may interfere with respiratory physiology and suggesting that L. blairi can behaviorally ameliorate the negative effects of L. maackii extracts. Our study highlights both a direct and indirect pathway by which invasive plant extracts may alter the ecological dynamics of native fauna.

The outcome of competitive interactions is likely to be influenced by both competitive dominance (i.e. niche-based dynamics) and ecological drift (i.e. neutral dynamics governed by demographic stochasticity). However, spatial models of competition rarely consider the joint operation of these two processes. We develop a model based on the original competition-colonization trade-off model that incorporates niche and neutral processes and several realistic facets of ecological dynamics: it allows local competition (i.e. competition within a patch) to occur within communities of a finite size, it allows competitors to vary in the degree of competitive asymmetry, and it includes the role of local migration (i.e. propagule pressure). The model highlights the role of community size, i.e. the number of competitors in the local community, in mediating the relative importance of stochastic and deterministic forces. In metacommunities where local communities are small, ecological drift is substantial enough that strong competitors become effectively neutral, creating abrupt changes in the outcome of competition not predicted by the standard competition-colonization trade-off. Importantly, the model illustrates that, even when other aspects of species interactions (e.g. migration ability, competitive ability) are unchanged, local community size can alter the dynamics of metacommunity persistence. Our work demonstrates that activities which reduce the size of local communities, such as habitat destruction and degradation, effectively compound the extinction debt.

Scientific interest in the impact of habitat fragmentation on biodiversity is increasing, but our understanding of fragmentation is clouded by a lack of appreciation for fundamental similarities and differences across studies representing a wide range of taxa and landscape types. In an effort to synthesize data describing ecological responses of animals to fragmentation across two classes of independent variables (taxonomic group and landscape), we sampled 148 studies offive major faunal groups from the primary literature and analyzed data on 13 variables extracted from those studies. We focused our analyses on three classes of dependent variables (effects of area and isolation on species richness, z values, and nestedness and species composition). Area ranged over more orders of magnitude than isolation and tended to explain more variation in species richness than isolation. There were few matrix or taxon effects on the patterns we investigated, although we did find that sky islands tended to manifest isolation effects on both species richness and nestedness more frequently than other patch types. Sky islands may offer insight into the future of habitat patches fragmented by contemporary habitat loss, and because they show a stronger effect of isolation than other patch types, we suggest that isolation will play an increasing role in the biology of habitat fragments. We use multiple lines of evidence to suggest that our understanding of the role of isolation on community assembly in fragmented landscapes is inadequate. Finally, our observation that consistent taxonomic differences in community patterns were minimal suggests that conservation actions intended to mitigate the negative effects of extinction may have far-reaching effects across taxonomic groups.