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Predicting future trajectories of nearby objects, especially under occlusion, is a crucial task in autonomous driving and safe robot navigation. Prior works typically neglect to maintain uncertainty about occluded objects and only predict trajectories of observed objects using high-capacity models such as Transformers trained on large datasets. While these approaches are effective in standard scenarios, they can struggle to generalize to the long-tail, safety-critical scenarios. In this work, we explore a conceptual framework unifying trajectory prediction and occlusion reasoning under the same class of structured probabilistic generative model, namely, switching dynamical systems. We then present some initial experiments illustrating its capabilities using the Waymo open dataset.

Modern Mixed-Criticality Systems (MCSs) rely on hardware heterogeneity to satisfy ever-increasing computational demands. However, most of the heterogeneous co-processors are designed to achieve high throughput, with their micro-architectures executing the workloads in a streaming manner. This streaming execution is often non-preemptive or limited-preemptive, preventing tasks' prioritisation based on their importance and resulting in frequent occurrences of algorithmic priority and/or criticality inversions. Such problems present a significant barrier to guaranteeing the systems' real-time predictability, especially when co-processors dominate the execution of the workloads (e.g., DNNs and transformers). In contrast to existing works that typically enable coarse-grained context switch by splitting the workloads/algorithms, we demonstrate a method that provides fine-grained context switch on a widely used open-source DNN accelerator by enabling instruction-level preemption without any workloads/algorithms modifications. As a systematic solution, we build a real system, i.e., Make Each Switch Count (MESC), from the SoC and ISA to the OS kernel. A theoretical model and analysis are also provided for timing guarantees. Experimental results reveal that, compared to conventional MCSs using non-preemptive DNN accelerators, MESC achieved a 250x and 300x speedup in resolving algorithmic priority and criticality inversions, with less than 5\% overhead. To our knowledge, this is the first work investigating algorithmic priority and criticality inversions for MCSs at the instruction level., Comment: Accepted at the 2024 IEEE Real-Time Systems Symposium (RTSS)

In safety-critical systems, timing accuracy is the key to achieving precise I/O control. To meet such strict timing requirements, dedicated hardware assistance has recently been investigated and developed. However, these solutions are often fragile, due to unforeseen timing defects. In this paper, we propose a robust and timing-accurate I/O co-processor, which manages I/O tasks using Execution Time Servers (ETSs) and a two-level scheduler. The ETSs limit the impact of timing defects between tasks, and the scheduler prioritises ETSs based on their importance, offering a robust and configurable scheduling infrastructure. Based on the hardware design, we present an ETS-based timing-accurate I/O schedule, with the ETS parameters configured to further enhance robustness against timing defects. Experiments show the proposed I/O control method outperforms the state-of-the-art method in terms of timing accuracy and robustness without introducing significant overhead., Comment: Accepted at the 2024 IEEE Real-Time Systems Symposium (RTSS)

Expected free energy (EFE) is a central quantity in active inference which has recently gained popularity due to its intuitive decomposition of the expected value of control into a pragmatic and an epistemic component. While numerous conjectures have been made to justify EFE as a decision making objective function, the most widely accepted is still its intuitiveness and resemblance to variational free energy in approximate Bayesian inference. In this work, we take a bottom up approach and ask: taking EFE as given, what's the resulting agent's optimality gap compared with a reward-driven reinforcement learning (RL) agent, which is well understood? By casting EFE under a particular class of belief MDP and using analysis tools from RL theory, we show that EFE approximates the Bayes optimal RL policy via information value. We discuss the implications for objective specification of active inference agents.

Pathogenic chromosome abnormalities are very common among the general population. While numerical chromosome abnormalities can be quickly and precisely detected, structural chromosome abnormalities are far more complex and typically require considerable efforts by human experts for identification. This paper focuses on investigating the modeling of chromosome features and the identification of chromosomes with structural abnormalities. Most existing data-driven methods concentrate on a single chromosome and consider each chromosome independently, overlooking the crucial aspect of homologous chromosomes. In normal cases, homologous chromosomes share identical structures, with the exception that one of them is abnormal. Therefore, we propose an adaptive method to align homologous chromosomes and diagnose structural abnormalities through homologous similarity. Inspired by the process of human expert diagnosis, we incorporate information from multiple pairs of homologous chromosomes simultaneously, aiming to reduce noise disturbance and improve prediction performance. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets validate the effectiveness of our model compared to baselines.

Creating geometric digital twins (gDT) for as-built roads still faces many challenges, such as low automation level and accuracy, limited asset types and shapes, and reliance on engineering experience. A novel scan-to-building information modeling (scan-to-BIM) framework is proposed for automatic road gDT creation based on semantically labeled point cloud data (PCD), which considers six asset types: Road Surface, Road Side (Slope), Road Lane (Marking), Road Sign, Road Light, and Guardrail. The framework first segments the semantic PCD into spatially independent instances or parts, then extracts the sectional polygon contours as their representative geometric information, stored in JavaScript Object Notation (JSON) files using a new data structure. Primitive gDTs are finally created from JSON files using corresponding conversion algorithms. The proposed method achieves an average distance error of 1.46 centimeters and a processing speed of 6.29 meters per second on six real-world road segments with a total length of 1,200 meters.

The concept of Digital Twin (DT) is increasingly applied to systems on different levels of abstraction across domains, to support monitoring, analysis, diagnosis, decision making and automated control. Whilst the interest in applying DT is growing, the definition of DT is unclear, neither is there a clear pathway to develop DT to fully realise its capacities. In this paper, we revise the concept of DT and its categorisation. We propose a DT maturity matrix, based on which we propose a model-based DT development methodology. We also discuss how model-based tools can be used to support the methodology and present our own supporting tool. We report our preliminary findings with a discussion on a case study, in which we use our proposed methodology and our supporting tool to develop an extensible DT platform for the assurance of Electrical and Electronics systems of space launch vehicles.

Graph is considered a promising way for managing building information. A new graphic form of IFC (Industry Foundation Classes) data has just been developed, referred to as IFC-Graph. However, understanding of IFC-Graph is insufficient, especially for information query. This study aims to explore graphic building information query and develop a graph query language tailored for IFC-Graph. A series of tasks were carried out, including a) investigating the structure of IFC data and the main types of information in IFC, b) investigating the graph query language Cypher, and c) developing a set of tailored functional query patterns. The developed language is referred to as Cypher4BIM. Five IFC models were used for validation, and the result shows that Cypher4BIM can query individual instances and complex relations from IFC, such as spatial structure, space boundary, and space accessibility. This study contributes to applications that require effective building information query, such as digital twin.

Severe weather events such as floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, and large wind or ice storms can cause extensive damage to electrical distribution networks, requiring a multi-day restoration effort. Complicating the recovery process is the lack of complete and accurate information regarding the extent and locations of damages, at least during the initial part of the recovery process. These factors make workforce planning challenging. In this paper, we adopt a rolling horizon restoration framework whereby repairs are planned for adjustable finite length restoration windows. Considering both repair times as well as travel times, we show that the optimal scheduling problem with multiple crews, each with their own time budget, can be recast in terms of a cost constrained reward maximizing mTSP (traveling salesman problem) on doubly weighted graphs, where the objective is to maximize the aggregate reward earned during the upcoming restoration window, provided no crew violates its time budget and certain electrical continuity constraints are met. We propose a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model for solving the above problem which is validated on standard IEEE PES test feeder networks., Comment: 26 pages, 17 figures

Assurance cases are used to communicate and assess confidence in critical system properties such as safety and security. Historically, assurance cases have been manually created documents, which are evaluated by system stakeholders through lengthy and complicated processes. In recent years, model-based system assurance approaches have gained popularity to improve the efficiency and quality of system assurance activities. This becomes increasingly important, as systems becomes more complex, it is a challenge to manage their development life-cycles, including coordination of development, verification and validation activities, and change impact analysis in inter-connected system assurance artifacts. Moreover, there is a need for assurance cases that support evolution during the operational life of the system, to enable continuous assurance in the face of an uncertain environment, as Robotics and Autonomous Systems (RAS) are adopted into society. In this paper, we contribute ACCESS - Assurance Case Centric Engineering of Safety-critical Systems, an engineering methodology, together with its tool support, for the development of safety critical systems around evolving model-based assurance cases. We show how model-based system assurance cases can trace to heterogeneous engineering artifacts (e.g. system architectural models, system safety analysis, system behaviour models, etc.), and how formal methods can be integrated during the development process. We demonstrate how assurance cases can be automatically evaluated both at development and runtime. We apply our approach to a case study based on an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV).

As global concerns about climate change intensify, the transition towards zero-emission freight is becoming increasingly vital. Drayage is an important segment of the freight system, typically involving the transport of goods from seaports or intermodal terminals to nearby warehouses. This sector significantly contributes to not only greenhouse gas emissions, but also pollution in densely populated areas. This study presents a holistic optimization model designed for an efficient transition to zero-emission drayage, offering cost-effective strategies for the coordinated investment planning for power systems, charging infrastructure, and electric drayage trucks. The model is validated in the Greater Los Angeles area, where regulatory goals are among the most ambitious. Furthermore, the model's design allows for easy adaptation to other regions. By focusing on drayage trucks, this study also paves the way for future research into other freight categories, establishing a foundation for a more extensive exploration in this field., Comment: 34 pages, 10 figures

In this paper, we study a disordered pinning model induced by a random walk whose increments have a finite fourth moment and vanishing first and third moments. It is known that this model is marginally relevant, and moreover, it undergoes a phase transition in an intermediate disorder regime. We show that, in the critical window, the point-to-point partition functions converge to a unique limiting random measure, which we call the critical disordered pinning measure. We also obtain an analogous result for a continuous counterpart to the pinning model, which is closely related to two other models: one is a critical stochastic Volterra equation that gives rise to a rough volatility model, and the other is a critical stochastic heat equation with multiplicative noise that is white in time and delta in space., Comment: 51 pages

Patterns by self-organization in nature have garnered significant interest in a range of disciplines due to their intriguing structures. In the context of the snowdrift game (SDG), which is considered as an anti-coordination game, but the anti-coordination patterns are counterintuitively rare. In the work, we introduce a model called the Two-Agents, Two-Action Reinforcement Learning Evolutionary Game ($2\times 2$ RLEG), and apply it to the SDG on regular lattices. We uncover intriguing phenomena in the form of Anti-Coordinated domains (AC-domains), where different frustration regions are observed and continuous phase transitions at the boundaries are identified. To understand the underlying mechanism, we develop a perturbation theory to analyze the stability of different AC-domains. Our theory accurately partitions the parameter space into non-anti-coordinated, anti-coordinated, and mixed areas, and captures their dependence on the learning parameters. Lastly, abnormal scenarios with a large learning rate and a large discount factor that deviate from the theory are investigated by examining the growth and nucleation of AC-domains. Our work provides insights into the emergence of spatial patterns in nature, and contributes to the development of theory for analysing their structural complexities.

Understanding adaptive human driving behavior, in particular how drivers manage uncertainty, is of key importance for developing simulated human driver models that can be used in the evaluation and development of autonomous vehicles. However, existing traffic psychology models of adaptive driving behavior either lack computational rigor or only address specific scenarios and/or behavioral phenomena. While models developed in the fields of machine learning and robotics can effectively learn adaptive driving behavior from data, due to their black box nature, they offer little or no explanation of the mechanisms underlying the adaptive behavior. Thus, a generalizable, interpretable, computational model of adaptive human driving behavior is still lacking. This paper proposes such a model based on active inference, a behavioral modeling framework originating in computational neuroscience. The model offers a principled solution to how humans trade progress against caution through policy selection based on the single mandate to minimize expected free energy. This casts goal-seeking and information-seeking (uncertainty-resolving) behavior under a single objective function, allowing the model to seamlessly resolve uncertainty as a means to obtain its goals. We apply the model in two apparently disparate driving scenarios that require managing uncertainty, (1) driving past an occluding object and (2) visual time sharing between driving and a secondary task, and show how human-like adaptive driving behavior emerges from the single principle of expected free energy minimization., Comment: 33 pages, 13 figures

Model-based Reinforcement Learning (MBRL) aims to make agents more sample-efficient, adaptive, and explainable by learning an explicit model of the environment. While the capabilities of MBRL agents have significantly improved in recent years, how to best learn the model is still an unresolved question. The majority of MBRL algorithms aim at training the model to make accurate predictions about the environment and subsequently using the model to determine the most rewarding actions. However, recent research has shown that model predictive accuracy is often not correlated with action quality, tracing the root cause to the objective mismatch between accurate dynamics model learning and policy optimization of rewards. A number of interrelated solution categories to the objective mismatch problem have emerged as MBRL continues to mature as a research area. In this work, we provide an in-depth survey of these solution categories and propose a taxonomy to foster future research.

We consider a Bayesian approach to offline model-based inverse reinforcement learning (IRL). The proposed framework differs from existing offline model-based IRL approaches by performing simultaneous estimation of the expert's reward function and subjective model of environment dynamics. We make use of a class of prior distributions which parameterizes how accurate the expert's model of the environment is to develop efficient algorithms to estimate the expert's reward and subjective dynamics in high-dimensional settings. Our analysis reveals a novel insight that the estimated policy exhibits robust performance when the expert is believed (a priori) to have a highly accurate model of the environment. We verify this observation in the MuJoCo environments and show that our algorithms outperform state-of-the-art offline IRL algorithms.

Cooperation is the foundation of ecosystems and the human society, and the reinforcement learning provides crucial insight into the mechanism for its emergence. However, most previous work has mostly focused on the self-organization at the population level, the fundamental dynamics at the individual level remains unclear. Here, we investigate the evolution of cooperation in a two-agent system, where each agent pursues optimal policies according to the classical Q-learning algorithm in playing the strict prisoner's dilemma. We reveal that a strong memory and long-sighted expectation yield the emergence of Coordinated Optimal Policies (COPs), where both agents act like Win-Stay, Lose-Shift (WSLS) to maintain a high level of cooperation. Otherwise, players become tolerant toward their co-player's defection and the cooperation loses stability in the end where the policy all Defection (All-D) prevails. This suggests that tolerance could be a good precursor to a crisis in cooperation. Furthermore, our analysis shows that the Coordinated Optimal Modes (COMs) for different COPs gradually lose stability as memory weakens and expectation for the future decreases, where agents fail to predict co-player's action in games and defection dominates. As a result, we give the constraint to expectations of future and memory strength for maintaining cooperation. In contrast to the previous work, the impact of exploration on cooperation is found not be consistent, but depends on composition of COMs. By clarifying these fundamental issues in this two-player system, we hope that our work could be helpful for understanding the emergence and stability of cooperation in more complex scenarios in reality., Comment: 29 pages,11 figures