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Background: As society ages, promoting the health of the extra years of life is of paramount importance for health, social care and pension provision. Increases in life expectancy in the UK and elsewhere have slowed in recent years, but the reasons for this are unclear. No formal comparison of trends in healthy life years between the UK and the other countries of the EU28 in recent times has been published. These countries are geographically proximate, and share many social, cultural and demographic properties, making them interesting and useful comparators, especially as the UK prepared to leave the European Union in 2020. Methods: We calculated sex-specific healthy life years (HLY), unhealthy life years (ULY), mild and severe ULY at birth and age 65 using life tables and age-specific prevalence of activity limitation amongst the EU28 between 2008 and 2016 from EuroHex. Trends in life expectancy, HLY, ULY and proportion of life spent healthy (HLY%) were compared. We then decomposed HLY temporal changes into relative effects of changes in healthy life and mortality, by age group. Findings: Life expectancy at birth, and age 65, in the UK were increasing rapidly in 2008 but slowed around 2011. Germany, Portugal and France showed evidence of a similar slowing. HLY at birth in the UK decreased, whereas it increased in most EU28 countries. The UK experienced a period of absolute expansion of unhealthy life in both sexes. The reduction in HLY at birth in the UK was mainly attributable to increases in unhealthy life in younger age groups. Interpretation: The UK's performance relative to the other countries of the EU28 was poor after 2011, combining static life expectancy and reductions in healthy life years. These trends suggest that the UK government's Ageing Society Grand Challenge (to increase the healthy life expectancy by five years by 2035) will be difficult to attain. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Policy Research Programme conducted through

One of the most consistent and worrying features of the COVID-19 pandemic globally has been the disproportionate burden of the epidemic in the most deprived areas. Most of the literature so far though has focused on estimating the extent of these inequalities. There has been much less attention paid to exploring the main pathways underpinning them. In this study, we employ the syndemic pandemic theoretical framework and apply novel decomposition methods to investigate the proportion of the COVID-19 mortality gap by area-level deprivation in England during the first wave of the pandemic (January to July 2020) was accounted for by pre-existing inequalities in the compositional and contextual characteristics of place. We use a decomposition approach to explicitly quantify the independent contribution of four inequalities pathways (vulnerability, susceptibility, exposure and transmission) in explaining the more severe COVID-19 outcomes in the most deprived local authorities compared to the rest. We find that inequalities in transmission (73%) and in vulnerability (49%) factors explained the highest proportion of mortality by deprivation. Our results suggest that public health agencies need to develop short- and long-term strategies to alleviate these underlying inequalities in order to alleviate the more severe impacts on the most vulnerable communities.

peer-reviewed, Introduction Early detection and treatment of diabetes as well as its prevention help lessen longer-term complications. We determined the prevalence of pre-diabetes and undiagnosed diabetes in the UK Biobank and standardized the results to the UK general population. Research design and methods This cross-sectional study analyzed baseline UK Biobank data on plasma glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) to compare the prevalence of pre-diabetes and undiagnosed diabetes mellitus in white, South Asian, black, and Chinese participants. The overall and ethnic-specific results were standardized to the UK general population aged 40–70 years of age. Results Within the UK Biobank, the overall crude prevalence was 3.6% for pre-diabetes, 0.8% for undiagnosed diabetes, and 4.4% for either. Following standardization to the UK general population, the results were similar at 3.8%, 0.8%, and 4.7%, respectively. Crude prevalence was much higher in South Asian (11.0% pre-diabetes; 3.6% undiagnosed diabetes; 14.6% either) or black (13.8% pre-diabetes; 3.0% undiagnosed diabetes; 16.8% either) participants. Only six middle-aged or old-aged South Asian individuals or seven black would need to be tested to identify an HbA1c result that merits action. Conclusions Single-stage population screening for pre-diabetes or undiagnosed diabetes in middle-old or old-aged South Asian and black individuals using HbA1c could be efficient and should be considered

peer-reviewed, BACKGROUND: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) can occur in patients who are ineligible for routine ultrasound screening. A simple AAA risk score was derived and compared with current guidelines used for ultrasound screening of AAA. METHODS: United Kingdom Biobank participants without previous AAA were split into a derivation cohort (n=401820, 54.6% women, mean age 56.4 years, 95.5% White race) and validation cohort (n=83816). Incident AAA was defined as first hospital inpatient diagnosis of AAA, death from AAA, or an AAA-related surgical procedure. A multivariable Cox model was developed in the derivation cohort into an AAA risk score that did not require blood biomarkers. To illustrate the sensitivity and specificity of the risk score for AAA, a theoretical threshold to refer patients for ultrasound at 0.25% 10-year risk was modeled. Discrimination of the risk score was compared with a model of US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) AAA screening guidelines. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, there were 1570 (0.40%) cases of AAA over a median 11.3 years of follow-up. Components of the AAA risk score were age (stratified by smoking status), weight (stratified by smoking status), antihypertensive and cholesterol-lowering medication use, height, diastolic blood pressure, baseline cardiovascular disease, and diabetes. In the validation cohort, over 10 years of follow-up, the C-index for the model of the USPSTF guidelines was 0.705 (95% CI, 0.678–0.733). The C-index of the risk score as a continuous variable was 0.856 (95% CI, 0.837–0.878). In the validation cohort, the USPSTF model yielded sensitivity 63.9% and specificity 71.3%. At the 0.25% 10-year risk threshold, the risk score yielded sensitivity 82.1% and specificity 70.7% while also improving the net reclassification index compared with the USPSTF model +0.176 (95% CI, 0.120–0.232). A combined model, whereby risk scoring was combined with the USPSTF model, also improved prediction compared with USPSTF alone (ne

he average age of the global human population is increasing, leading to increased interest in the effects of chronic disease and multimorbidity on health resources and patient welfare. It has been posited that the average age of the general veterinarian-attended horse population of the UK is also increasing, and therefore it could be assumed that chronic diseases and multimorbidity would pose an increasing risk here also. However, evidence for this trend in ageing is very limited, and the current prevalence of many chronic diseases, and of multimorbidity, is unknown. Using text mining of first-opinion electronic medical records from seven veterinary practices around the UK, Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard modelling, we were able to estimate the apparent prevalence among veterinarian-attended horses of nine chronic diseases, and to assess their relative effects on median life expectancy following diagnosis. With these methods we found evidence of increasing population age. Multimorbidity affected 1.2% of the study population, and had a significant effect upon survival times, with co-occurrence of two diseases, and three or more diseases, leading to 6.6 and 21.3 times the hazard ratio compared to no chronic disease, respectively. Laminitis was involved in 74% of cases of multimorbidity. The population of horses attended by UK veterinarians appears to be aging, and chronic diseases and their co-occurrence are common features, and as such warrant further investigation.

Electronic medical records from first opinion equine veterinary practice may represent a unique resource for epidemiologic research. The appropriateness of this resource for risk factor analyses was explored as part of an investigation into clinical and pharmacologic risk factors for laminitis. Amalgamated medical records from seven UK practices were subjected to text mining to identify laminitis episodes, systemic or intra-synovial corticosteroid prescription, diseases known to affect laminitis risk and clinical signs or syndromes likely to lead to corticosteroid use. Cox proportional hazard models and Prentice, Williams, Peterson models for repeated events were used to estimate associations with time to first, or subsequent laminitis episodes, respectively. Over seventy percent of horses that were diagnosed with laminitis suf- fered at least one recurrence. Risk factors for first and subsequent laminitis episodes were found to vary. Corticosteroid use (prednisolone only) was only significantly associated with subsequent, and not ini- tial laminitis episodes. Electronic medical record use for such analyses is plausible and offers important advantages over more traditional data sources. It does, however, pose challenges and limitations that must be taken into account, and requires a conceptual change to disease diagnosis which should be considered carefully.