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Day-ahead unit commitment (UC) is a fundamental task for power system operators, where generator statuses and power dispatch are determined based on the forecasted nodal net demands. The uncertainty inherent in renewables and load forecasting requires the use of techniques in optimization under uncertainty to find more resilient and reliable UC solutions. However, the solution procedure of such specialized optimization may differ from the deterministic UC. The original constraint screening approach can be unreliable and inefficient for them. Thus, in this work we design a novel screening approach under the forecasting uncertainty. Our approach accommodates such uncertainties in both chance-constrained and robust forms, and can greatly reduce the UC instance size by screening out non-binding constraints. To further improve the screening efficiency, we utilize the multi-parametric programming theory to convert the underlying optimization problem of the screening model to a piecewise affine function. A multi-area screening approach is further developed to handle the computational intractability issues for large-scale problems. We verify the proposed method's performance on a variety of UC setups and uncertainty situations. Experimental results show that our robust screening procedure can guarantee better feasibility, while the CC screening can produce more efficient reduced models. The average screening time for a single line flow constraint can be accelerated by 71.2X to 131.3X using our proposed method., Comment: In submission, 11 pages, 10 figures

Large penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs) brings huge uncertainty into the electricity markets. While existing deterministic market clearing fails to accommodate the uncertainty, the recently proposed stochastic market clearing struggles to achieve desirable market properties. In this work, we propose a value-oriented forecasting approach, which tactically determines the RESs generation that enters the day-ahead market. With such a forecast, the existing deterministic market clearing framework can be maintained, and the day-ahead and real-time overall operation cost is reduced. At the training phase, the forecast model parameters are estimated to minimize expected day-ahead and real-time overall operation costs, instead of minimizing forecast errors in a statistical sense. Theoretically, we derive the exact form of the loss function for training the forecast model that aligns with such a goal. For market clearing modeled by linear programs, this loss function is a piecewise linear function. Additionally, we derive the analytical gradient of the loss function with respect to the forecast, which inspires an efficient training strategy. A numerical study shows our forecasts can bring significant benefits of the overall cost reduction to deterministic market clearing, compared to quality-oriented forecasting approach.

Machine learning techniques have been successfully used in probabilistic wind power forecasting. However, the issue of missing values within datasets due to sensor failure, for instance, has been overlooked for a long time. Although it is natural to consider addressing this issue by imputing missing values before model estimation and forecasting, we suggest treating missing values and forecasting targets indifferently and predicting all unknown values simultaneously based on observations. In this paper, we offer an efficient probabilistic forecasting approach by estimating the joint distribution of features and targets based on a generative model. It is free of preprocessing, and thus avoids introducing potential errors. Compared with the traditional "impute, then predict" pipeline, the proposed approach achieves better performance in terms of continuous ranked probability score., Comment: 8 pages, to be presented at Power Systems Computation Conference (PSCC) 2024

Renewable energy forecasting is the workhorse for efficient energy dispatch. However, forecasts with small mean squared errors (MSE) may not necessarily lead to low operation costs. Here, we propose a forecasting approach specifically tailored for operational purposes, by incorporating operational problems into the estimation of forecast models via designing a loss function. We formulate a bilevel program, where the operation problem is at the lower level, and the forecast model estimation is at the upper level. We establish the relationship between the lower-level optimal solutions and forecasts through multiparametric programming. By integrating it into the upper-level objective for minimizing expected operation cost, we convert the bilevel problem to a single-level one and derive the loss function for training the model. It is proved to be piecewise linear, for linear operation problem. Compared to the commonly used loss functions, e.g. MSE, our approach achieves lower operation costs., Comment: submitted to PSCC 2024

Power systems Unit Commitment (UC) problem determines the generator commitment schedule and dispatch decisions for power networks based on forecasted electricity demand. However, with the increasing penetration of renewables and stochastic demand behaviors, it becomes challenging to solve the large-scale, multi-interval UC problem in an efficient manner. The main objective of this paper is to propose a fast and reliable scheme to eliminate a set of redundant or inactive physical constraints in the high-dimensional, multi-interval, mixed-integer UC problem, while the reduced problem is equivalent to the original full problem in terms of commitment decisions. Our key insights lie on pre-screening the constraints based on the load distribution and considering the physical feasibility regions of multi-interval UC problem. For the multistep UC formulation, we overcome screening conservativeness by utilizing the multi-step ramping relationships, and can reliably screen out more constraints compared to current practice. Extensive simulations on both specific load samples and load regions validate the proposed technique can screen out more than 80% constraints while preserving the feasibility of multi-interval UC problem., Comment: Accepted to IEEE Conference on Decision and Control 2023

Energy forecasting is an essential task in power system operations. Operators usually issue forecasts and leverage them to schedule energy dispatch ahead of time. However, forecast models are typically developed in a way that overlooks the operational value of the forecasts. To bridge the gap, we design a value-oriented point forecasting approach for sequential energy dispatch problems with renewable energy sources. At the training phase, we align the loss function with the overall operation cost function, thereby achieving reduced operation costs. The forecast model parameter estimation is formulated as a bilevel program. Under mild assumptions, we convert the upper-level objective into an equivalent form using the dual solutions obtained from the lower-level operation problems. Additionally, a novel iterative solution strategy is proposed for the newly formulated bilevel program. Under such an iterative scheme, we show that the upper-level objective is locally linear regarding the forecast model output, and can act as the loss function. Numerical experiments demonstrate that, compared to commonly used statistical quality-oriented point forecasting methods, forecasts obtained by the proposed approach result in lower operation costs. Meanwhile, the proposed approach is more computationally efficient than traditional two-stage stochastic programs., Comment: submitted to IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid

Probabilistic wind power forecasting approaches have significantly advanced in recent decades. However, forecasters often assume data completeness and overlook the challenge of missing values resulting from sensor failures, network congestion, etc. Traditionally, this issue is addressed during the data preprocessing procedure using methods such as deletion and imputation. Nevertheless, these ad-hoc methods pose challenges to probabilistic wind power forecasting at both parameter estimation and operational forecasting stages. In this paper, we propose a resilient probabilistic forecasting approach that smoothly adapts to missingness patterns without requiring preprocessing or retraining. Specifically, we design an adaptive quantile regression model with parameters capable of adapting to missing patterns, comprising two modules. The first is a feature extraction module where weights are kept static and biases are designed as a function of missingness patterns. The second is a non-crossing quantile neural network module, ensuring monotonicity of quantiles, with higher quantiles derived by adding non-negative amounts to lower quantiles. The proposed approach is applicable to cases under all missingness mechanisms including missing-not-at-random cases. Case studies demonstrate that our proposed approach achieves state-of-the-art results in terms of the continuous ranked probability score, with acceptable computational cost., Comment: 26 pages, the revision to Energy

Unit commitment (UC) are essential tools to transmission system operators for finding the most economical and feasible generation schedules and dispatch signals. Constraint screening has been receiving attention as it holds the promise for reducing a number of inactive or redundant constraints in the UC problem, so that the solution process of large scale UC problem can be accelerated by considering the reduced optimization problem. Standard constraint screening approach relies on optimizing over load and generations to find binding line flow constraints, yet the screening is conservative with a large percentage of constraints still reserved for the UC problem. In this paper, we propose a novel machine learning (ML) model to predict the most economical costs given load inputs. Such ML model bridges the cost perspectives of UC decisions to the optimization-based constraint screening model, and can screen out higher proportion of operational constraints. We verify the proposed method's performance on both sample-aware and sample-agnostic setting, and illustrate the proposed scheme can further reduce the computation time on a variety of setup for UC problems.

Demand response (DR) leverages demand-side flexibility, offering a promising approach to enhance market conditions like mitigating wholesale price spikes. However, poorly chosen DR locations can inadvertently increase electricity prices. For that, we introduce a method to rigorously select DR locations and corresponding demand reductions. We formulate a bilevel program where the upper level determines the DR locations and demand reductions while ensuring the average nodal prices meet a predetermined target. The lower level tackles an economic dispatch (ED) problem and feeds the resulting nodal prices back to the upper level based on post-DR demands. This bilevel formulation presents challenges due to the lower-level non-convexity affecting the upper-level constraints on average nodal prices. To address this, we propose to replace the lower level with a piecewise linear function representing the price-demand relationship, solving iteratively for each linear segment. This results in a tractable mixed-integer linear program. An acceleration strategy is proposed to further reduce the computation time. Numerical studies demonstrate the ability of the proposed approach to reduce prices to a desired level. Besides, we empirically show that the proposed approach is robust against inaccurate system parameters and can reduce computation time by over 50%., Comment: Submitted to Applied Energy

Prediction interval (PI) is an effective tool to quantify uncertainty and usually serves as an input to downstream robust optimization. Traditional approaches focus on improving the quality of PI in the view of statistical scores and assume the improvement in quality will lead to a higher value in the power systems operation. However, such an assumption cannot always hold in practice. In this paper, we propose a value-oriented PI forecasting approach, which aims at reducing operational costs in downstream operations. For that, it is required to issue PIs with the guidance of operational costs in robust optimization, which is addressed within the contextual bandit framework here. Concretely, the agent is used to select the optimal quantile proportion, while the environment reveals the costs in operations as rewards to the agent. As such, the agent can learn the policy of quantile proportion selection for minimizing the operational cost. The numerical study regarding a two-timescale operation of a virtual power plant verifies the superiority of the proposed approach in terms of operational value. And it is especially evident in the context of extensive penetration of wind power., Comment: the revision to IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid

We present a data-driven approach for probabilistic wind power forecasting based on conditional normalizing flow (CNF). In contrast with the existing, this approach is distribution-free (as for non-parametric and quantile-based approaches) and can directly yield continuous probability densities, hence avoiding quantile crossing. It relies on a base distribution and a set of bijective mappings. Both the shape parameters of the base distribution and the bijective mappings are approximated with neural networks. Spline-based conditional normalizing flow is considered owing to its non-affine characteristics. Over the training phase, the model sequentially maps input examples onto samples of base distribution, given the conditional contexts, where parameters are estimated through maximum likelihood. To issue probabilistic forecasts, one eventually maps samples of the base distribution into samples of a desired distribution. Case studies based on open datasets validate the effectiveness of the proposed model, and allows us to discuss its advantages and caveats with respect to the state of the art., Comment: The second revision to IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy

Prediction intervals offer an effective tool for quantifying the uncertainty of loads in distribution systems. The traditional central PIs cannot adapt well to skewed distributions, and their offline training fashion is vulnerable to unforeseen changes in future load patterns. Therefore, we propose an optimal PI estimation approach, which is online and adaptive to different data distributions by adaptively determining symmetric or asymmetric probability proportion pairs for quantiles. It relies on the online learning ability of reinforcement learning to integrate the two online tasks, i.e., the adaptive selection of probability proportion pairs and quantile predictions, both of which are modeled by neural networks. As such, the quality of quantiles-formed PI can guide the selection process of optimal probability proportion pairs, which forms a closed loop to improve the quality of PIs. Furthermore, to improve the learning efficiency of quantile forecasts, a prioritized experience replay strategy is proposed for online quantile regression processes. Case studies on both load and net load demonstrate that the proposed method can better adapt to data distribution compared with online central PIs method. Compared with offline-trained methods, it obtains PIs with better quality and is more robust against concept drift., Comment: revision to IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid

Wind power forecasting is essential to power system operation and electricity markets. As abundant data became available thanks to the deployment of measurement infrastructures and the democratization of meteorological modelling, extensive data-driven approaches have been developed within both point and probabilistic forecasting frameworks. These models usually assume that the dataset at hand is complete and overlook missing value issues that often occur in practice. In contrast to that common approach, we rigorously consider here the wind power forecasting problem in the presence of missing values, by jointly accommodating imputation and forecasting tasks. Our approach allows inferring the joint distribution of input features and target variables at the model estimation stage based on incomplete observations only. We place emphasis on a fully conditional specification method owing to its desirable properties, e.g., being assumption-free when it comes to these joint distributions. Then, at the operational forecasting stage, with available features at hand, one can issue forecasts by implicitly imputing all missing entries. The approach is applicable to both point and probabilistic forecasting, while yielding competitive forecast quality within both simulation and real-world case studies. It confirms that by using a powerful universal imputation method like fully conditional specification, the proposed approach is superior to the common approach, especially in the context of probabilistic forecasting., Comment: revision to International Journal of Forecasting

Action recognition has been a heated topic in computer vision for its wide application in vision systems. Previous approaches achieve improvement by fusing the modalities of the skeleton sequence and RGB video. However, such methods have a dilemma between the accuracy and efficiency for the high complexity of the RGB video network. To solve the problem, we propose a multi-modality feature fusion network to combine the modalities of the skeleton sequence and RGB frame instead of the RGB video, as the key information contained by the combination of skeleton sequence and RGB frame is close to that of the skeleton sequence and RGB video. In this way, the complementary information is retained while the complexity is reduced by a large margin. To better explore the correspondence of the two modalities, a two-stage fusion framework is introduced in the network. In the early fusion stage, we introduce a skeleton attention module that projects the skeleton sequence on the single RGB frame to help the RGB frame focus on the limb movement regions. In the late fusion stage, we propose a cross-attention module to fuse the skeleton feature and the RGB feature by exploiting the correlation. Experiments on two benchmarks NTU RGB+D and SYSU show that the proposed model achieves competitive performance compared with the state-of-the-art methods while reduces the complexity of the network., Comment: Accepted by ACM Transactions on Multimedia Computing, Communications, and Applications (TOMM)