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Major droughts and floods over the U.S. continent may be related to a far field energy source in the Asian Pacific. This is illustrated by two climate patterns associated with summertime rainfall over the U.S. and large-scale circulation on interannual timescale. The first shows an opposite variation between the drought/flood over the Midwest and that over eastern and southeastern U.S., coupled to a coherent wave pattern spanning the entire East Asia-North Pacific-North America region related to the East Asian jetstream. The second shows a continental-scale drought/flood in the central U.S., coupled to a wavetrain linking Asian/Pacific monsoon region to North America.

In this paper, we have identified three principal modes of summertime rainfall variability over China and global sea surface temperature (SST) for the period 1955-1998. Using these modes, we have assessed the impact of the El Nino/La Nina on major drought and flood occurrence over China during 1997-1998. The first mode can be identified with the growth phase of El Nino superimposed on a linear warming trend since the mid-1950s. This mode strongly influences rainfall over northern China. The second mode comprises of a quasi-biennial tendency manifested in alternate wet and dry years over the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) of central China. The third mode is dominated by a quasi-decadal oscillation in eastern China between the Yangtze River and the Yellow River. Using a mode-by-mode reconstruction, we evaluate the impacts of the various principal modes on the 1997 and 1998 observed rainfall anomaly. We find that the severe drought in northern China, and to a lesser degree the flood in southern China, in 1997 is likely a result of the influence of anomalous SST forcing during the growth phase of the El Nino. In addition, rainfall in southern China may be influenced by the decadal or long-term SST variability. The severe flood over the Yangtze River Valley in 1998 is associated with the biennial tendency of basin scale SST during the transition from El Nino to La Nina in 1997-98. Additionally, the observed prolonged drought over northern China and increasing flooding over the YRV since the 1950s may be associated with a long-term warming trend in the tropical Indian and western Pacific ocean. During 1997, the El Nino SST exacerbated the drought situation over northern China. In 1998, the drought appeared to get temporary relief from the La Nina anomalous SST forcing.

The variation in the sun output between the maximum and minimum activity over a 11-yr solar cycle is only about 0.1% of the average. Some people believe that even such a small variability in the sun's output is enough to cause our climate change. However, some others have thrown doubts upon such a relationship. Some of the arguments related to this controversial issue can be found in an earlier report by National Research Council (1982). There is a new wave of study about possible solar-climate relationship in the past decade, and the controversial discussion continues. One group still believes in the importance of the sun's role in climate change, while another still discount it with different degrees.

Based on the European Center For Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) First Global Atmospheric Research Program Global Experiment (FGGE) IIIb data set in the 1978 to 1979 winter, a potential vorticity (PV) index was defined as a measure of the zonally averaged, mid-latitude PV gradient on the 300 K isentropic surface in the Northern Hemisphere. The evolution of that index and its relation to teleconnection patterns of 500 mb geopotential height anomaly are studied. The results of the temporal and spatial variation of blocking and cyclogenesis in the 1978 to 1979 winter and its relation to global and local PV gradients were obtained. Complex empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses were performed, using the same FGGE data set for the 1978 to 1979 winter, for a representative high latitude band and mid latitude band geopotential height anomalies at 500 mb, phi sub h, phi sub m, and PV gradient at 300 K, delta(Q), at each longitude for the three month period. The focus of current research is the following: (1) to perform Fourier analyses for the first three EOF's of phi sub h, phi sub m, and delta(Q) at given latitude bands, and to find the dominant wavenumbers and frequencies which are responsible for these EOF's; (2) to compare the results from EOF and Fourier analyses which will be used to explore the relations of blocking and cyclogensis with local and global PV gradients; and (3) to study the time dependence of the local PV gradients and relate it to the PV index vacillation cycles observed in the PV index cycle.

Using standard data analysis techniques, researchers explore the links between disturbance growth and quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity (PV) gradients; appearance and disappearance of cutoff lows and blocking highs and their relation to a zonal index (properly defined in terms of PV); and teleconnections between different flow patterns and their relation to the zonal index. It was found that the PV index and the eddy index correlate better than a zonal index (defined by zonal wind) and the eddy index. In the frequency domain there are three frequencies (.03, .07 and .17 cpd (cycle per day) corresponding to periods of 33, 14 and 6 days) at which PV index and the eddy index exhibit local maxima. The high correlation found at periods of 33 days is mainly due to eddy activity at high latitudes while the local correlation maxima found at the shorter periods are mainly due mid-latitude eddy activity. The correlation between the PV index and the geopotential height anomaly at 500 mb, at each grid point in the Northern Hemisphere, shows the existence of most of the teleconnection patterns summarized by Wallace and Gutzler (1981): the North Atlantic Oscillation, the North Pacific Oscillation, and the Pacific/North American patterns. Results show that the Isentropic Potential Vorticity (IPV) analysis can be a very useful and powerful tool when used to understand the dynamics of several large scale atmospheric systems. Although the data are limited to only one winter, and it is difficult to assess the statistical significance of the correlation coefficients presented here, the results are encouraging from physical viewpoint.

The research carried out in the past year dealt with nonlinear baroclinic wave dynamics. The model consisted of an Eady baroclinic basic state and uneven Elkman dissipation at the top and bottom boundaries with/without slopes. The method of solution used a truncated spectral expansion with three zonal waves and one or two meridional modes. Numerical experiments were performed on synoptic scale waves or planetary scale waves with/without wave-wave interaction.