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About 5% of pregnant women are treated with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) antidepressants to treat their depression. SSRIs influence serotonin levels, a key factor in neural embryonic development, and their use during pregnancy has been associated with adverse effects on the developing embryo. However, the role of the placenta in transmitting these negative effects is not well understood. In this study, we aim to elucidate how disturbances in the maternal serotonergic system affect the villous tissue of the placenta by assessing whole transcriptomes in the placentas of women with healthy pregnancies and women with depression and treated with the SSRI fluoxetine during pregnancy. Twelve placentas of the Biology, Affect, Stress, Imaging and Cognition in Pregnancy and the Puerperium (BASIC) project were selected for RNA sequencing to examine differentially expressed genes: six male infants and six female infants, equally distributed over women treated with SSRI and without SSRI treatment. Our results show that more genes in the placenta of male infants show changed expression associated with fluoxetine treatment than in placentas of female infants, stressing the importance of sex-specific analyses. In addition, we identified genes related to extracellular matrix organization to be significantly enriched in placentas of male infants born to women treated with fluoxetine. It remains to be established whether the differentially expressed genes that we found to be associated with SSRI treatment are the result of the SSRI treatment itself, the underlying depression, or a combination of the two.

Evolution has traditionally been a historical and descriptive science, and predicting future evolutionary processes has long been considered impossible. However, evolutionary predictions are increasingly being developed and used in medicine, agriculture, biotechnology and conservation biology. Evolutionary predictions may be used for different purposes, such as to prepare for the future, to try and change the course of evolution or to determine how well we understand evolutionary processes. Similarly, the exact aspect of the evolved population that we want to predict may also differ. For example, we could try to predict which genotype will dominate, the fitness of the population or the extinction probability of a population. In addition, there are many uses of evolutionary predictions that may not always be recognized as such. The main goal of this review is to increase awareness of methods and data in different research fields by showing the breadth of situations in which evolutionary predictions are made. We describe how diverse evolutionary predictions share a common structure described by the predictive scope, time scale and precision. Then, by using examples ranging from SARS-CoV2 and influenza to CRISPR-based gene drives and sustainable product formation in biotechnology, we discuss the methods for predicting evolution, the factors that affect predictability and how predictions can be used to prevent evolution in undesirable directions or to promote beneficial evolution (i.e. evolutionary control). We hope that this review will stimulate collaboration between fields by establishing a common language for evolutionary predictions.

Climate change can severely impact species that depend on temporary resources by inducing phenological mismatches between consumer and resource seasonal timing. In the winter moth, warmer winters caused eggs to hatch before their food source, young oak leaves, became available. This phenological mismatch changed the selection on the temperature sensitivity of egg development rate. However, we know little about the fine-scale fitness consequences of phenological mismatch at the individual level and how this mismatch affects population dynamics in the winter moth. To determine the fitness consequences of mistimed egg hatching relative to timing of oak budburst, we quantified survival and pupation weight in a feeding experiment. We found that mismatch greatly increased mortality rates of freshly hatched caterpillars, as well as affecting caterpillar growth and development time. We then investigated whether these individual fitness consequences have population-level impacts by estimating the effect of phenological mismatch on population dynamics, using our long-term data (1994-2021) on relative winter moth population densities at four locations in The Netherlands. We found a significant effect of mismatch on population density with higher population growth rates in years with a smaller phenological mismatch. Our results indicate that climate change-induced phenological mismatch can incur severe individual fitness consequences that can impact population density in the wild.

Climate change can severely impact species that depend on temporary resources by inducing phenological mismatches between consumer and resource seasonal timing. In the winter moth, warmer winters caused eggs to hatch before their food source, young oak leaves, became available. This phenological mismatch changed the selection on the temperature sensitivity of egg development rate. However, we know little about the fine-scale fitness consequences of phenological mismatch at the individual level and how this mismatch affects population dynamics in the winter moth. To determine the fitness consequences of mistimed egg hatching relative to timing of oak budburst, we quantified survival and pupation weight in a feeding experiment. We found that mismatch greatly increased mortality rates of freshly hatched caterpillars, as well as affecting caterpillar growth and development time. We then investigated whether these individual fitness consequences have population-level impacts by estimating the effect of phenological mismatch on population dynamics, using our long-term data (1994-2021) on relative winter moth population densities at four locations in The Netherlands. We found a significant effect of mismatch on population density with higher population growth rates in years with a smaller phenological mismatch. Our results indicate that climate change-induced phenological mismatch can incur severe individual fitness consequences that can impact population density in the wild.

One of the key predictors for larval density in winter moth populations is the amount of synchrony between winter moth egg hatching and host tree bud burst. In four Dutch populations, timing of winter moth egg hatching shows rapid genetic adaptation in response to climate change. Eggs now need higher temperatures to complete development compared to 10 years ago, leading to a better phenological match with timing of their food source, emergence of young oak leaves. The mechanism of how winter moth egg development time responds to temperature remains unclear. To study this, embryonic development was characterized by imagining eggs with epifluorescence microscopy in a split-brood experiment, where eggs were transferred to a warmer or colder temperature compared to baseline at different times during development. Additionally, to identify the genes underlying the response of winter moth egg hatching to temperature, transcriptomes of eggs before and after transfer were sequenced. This study outlines for the first time the different stages of embryonic development in the winter moth, as well as the consequences of temperature in- or decreases on embryonic growth and gene expression at different stages of development. These insights into the mechanism of seasonal timing of egg hatching will help predict future responses of winter moth populations to climate change.

Climate change can severely impact species that depend on ephemeral resources because of induced phenological asynchrony: a mismatch between consumer and resource seasonal timing. In the winter moth, climate change induced asynchrony increased selection on the temperature sensitivity of egg development rate. However, we know little about the fine-scale fitness consequences of asynchrony at the individual level and how this affects population dynamics in the winter moth. We determined the fitness curve of timing of egg hatching relative to timing of oak budburst in a feeding experiment and combined this with our long-term data series on relative abundances of four Dutch populations to model the effect of asynchrony on population dynamics. Already one day of mismatch greatly increased mortality rates of freshly hatched caterpillars. This was reflected in our population models in which we found a significant effect of timing mismatch on population growth rates. These severe fitness consequences of asynchrony have driven the rapid genetic adaptation to climate change in the winter moth in the past 20 years. We are now using whole genome sequencing of historic winter moth samples to gain insight into how the selection pressure strength and population dynamics we investigated here have impacted the speed of adaptation in the wild.

Climate change will strongly affect the developmental timing of insects, as their development rate depends largely on ambient temperature. However, we know little about the genetic mechanisms underlying the temperature sensitivity of embryonic development in insects. We investigated embryonic development rate in the winter moth (Operophtera brumata), a species with egg dormancy which has been under selection due to climate change. We used RNA sequencing to investigate which genes are involved in the regulation of winter moth embryonic development rate in response to temperature. Over the course of development, we sampled eggs before and after an experimental change in ambient temperature, including two early development weeks when the temperature sensitivity of eggs is low and two late development weeks when temperature sensitivity is high. We found temperature-responsive genes that responded in a similar way across development, as well as genes with a temperature response specific to a particular development week. Moreover, we identified genes whose temperature effect size changed around the switch in temperature sensitivity of development rate. Interesting candidate genes for regulating the temperature sensitivity of egg development rate included genes involved in histone modification, hormonal signalling, nervous system development and circadian clock genes. The diverse sets of temperature-responsive genes we found here indicate that there are many potential targets of selection to change the temperature sensitivity of embryonic development rate. Identifying for which of these genes there is genetic variation in wild insect populations will give insight into their adaptive potential in the face of climate change.

R-scripts and corresponding .csv data files for statistical analyses. Abbreviations used in the csv. files: WM: Winter Morph, SM: Summer Morph, EM: Pre-cold mated, LM: Post-cold mated, V: Virgin, F: Female, M: Male, R-scripts and corresponding .csv data files for statistical analyses. Abbreviations used in the csv. files: WM:Winter Morph SM:Summer Morph EM:Pre-cold mated LM:Post-cold mated V:Virgin F:Female M:Male

Seasonal polyphenism in Drosophila suzukii manifests itself in two discrete adult morphotypes, the “winter morph” (WM) and the “summer morph” (SM). These morphotypes are known to differ in thermal stress tolerance, and they co-occur during parts of the year. In this study, we aimed to estimate morph-specific survival and fecundity in laboratory settings simulating field conditions. We specifically analyzed how WM and SM D. suzukii differed in mortality and reproduction during and after a period of cold exposure resembling winter and spring conditions in temperate climates. The median lifespan of D. suzukii varied around 5 months for the WM flies and around 7 months for the SM flies. WM flies showed higher survival during the cold-exposure period compared with SM flies, and especially SM males suffered high mortality under these conditions. In contrast, SM flies had lower mortality rates than WM flies under spring-like conditions. Intriguingly, reproductive status (virgin or mated) did not impact the fly survival, either during the cold exposure or during spring-like conditions. Even though the reproductive potential of WM flies was greatly reduced compared with SM flies, both WM and SM females that had mated before the cold exposure were able to continuously produce viable offspring for 5 months under spring-like conditions. Finally, the fertility of the overwintered WM males was almost zero, while the surviving SM males did not suffer reduced fertility. Combined with other studies on D. suzukii monitoring and overwintering behavior, these results suggest that overwintered flies of both morphotypes could live long enough to infest the first commercial crops of the season. The high mortality of SM males and the low fertility of WM males after prolonged cold exposure also highlight the necessity for females to store sperm over winter to be able to start reproducing early in the following spring.