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Interannual variability of tropospheric moisture and temperature are key aspects of Earth’s climate. In this study, monthly mean specific humidity (q) and temperature (T) variability is analyzed using 12 years of COSMIC-1 (C1) radio occultation retrievals between 60°N and 60°S, with a focus on the tropics. C1 retrievals are relatively independent of the a priori values for q and T within the lower/middle troposphere and upper troposphere/lower stratosphere, respectively. Tropical interannual variability is dominated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Systematic increases and decreases in zonal mean q and T are observed during the 2009/10 and 2015/16 El Niño events and 2007/08 and 2010/11 La Niña events, respectively. ENSO patterns in q and T are isolated using linear regression, and anomaly magnitudes increase with altitude, reaching a maximum in the upper troposphere. Upper-tropospheric q anomalies expand from the tropics into the midlatitude lower stratosphere, and the T vertical structure is consistent with a moist adiabatic response. C1 results are compared with NCAR’s Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), forced by observed sea surface temperatures, to evaluate model behavior in an idealized setting. WACCM ENSO variations in q and T generally show consistent behavior with C1 with somewhat smaller magnitudes. Case studies are conducted for major ENSO events during the study period. The spatial variability of q is closely aligned with outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies. For example, midtropospheric q increases over 100% and OLR decreases over 50 W m−2 over the central Pacific during the 2015/16 El Niño, and substantial regional q and T anomalies are observed throughout the tropics and midlatitudes for each event.

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The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) III has been operating on the International Space Station (ISS) since mid-2017. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) number density profiles are routinely retrieved from SAGE III/ISS solar occultation measurements in the middle atmosphere. Although NO2 density varies throughout the day due to photochemistry, the standard SAGE NO2 retrieval algorithm neglects these variations along the instrument's line of sight by assuming that the number density has a constant gradient within a given vertical layer of the atmosphere. This assumption will result in a retrieval bias for a species like NO2 that changes rapidly across the terminator. In this work we account for diurnal variations in retrievals of NO2 from the SAGE III/ISS measurements, and we determine the impact of this algorithm improvement on the resulting NO2 number densities. The first step in applying the diurnal correction is to use publicly available SAGE III/ISS products to convert the retrieved number density profiles to optical depth profiles. The retrieval is then re-performed with a new matrix that applies photochemical scale factors for each point along the line of sight according to the changing solar zenith angle. In general NO2 that is retrieved by accounting for these diurnal variations is more than 10 % lower than the standard algorithm below 30 km. This effect is greatest in winter at high latitudes and generally greater for sunrise occultations than sunset. Comparisons with coincident profiles from the Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imager System (OSIRIS) show that NO2 from SAGE III/ISS is generally biased high; however the agreement improves by up to 20 % in the mid-stratosphere when diurnal variations are accounted for in the retrieval. We conclude that diurnal variations along the SAGE III/ISS line of sight are an important term to consider for NO2 analyses at altitudes below 30 km.

High-vertical-resolution temperature measurements from GPS radio occultation data show frequent upper-tropospheric inversions over the equatorial Indian Ocean during the summer monsoon season. Each year, around 30% of profiles in this region have temperature inversions near 15 km during the monsoon season, peaking during July–September. This work describes the space–time behavior of these inversions, and their links to transient deep convection. The Indian Ocean inversions occur episodically several times each summer, with a time scale of 1–2 weeks, and are quasi stationary or slowly eastward moving. Strong inversions are characterized by cold anomalies in the upper-troposphere (12–15 km), warm anomalies in the tropopause layer (16–18 km), and strong zonal wind anomalies that are coherent with temperature anomalies. Temperature and wind anomalies are centered over the equator and show a characteristic eastward phase tilt with height with a vertical wavelength near 5 km, consistent with a Kelvin wave structure. Composites of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) show that strong inversions are linked to enhanced deep convection over the equatorial Indian Ocean, preceding the inversions by ~2–6 days. These characteristics suggest that the inversions are linked to convectively forced Kelvin waves, which are Doppler shifted by the easterly monsoonal winds such that they remain quasi stationary in the equatorial Indian Ocean. These large-scale waves influence circulation on the equatorial side of the Indian monsoon anticyclone; they may provide a positive feedback to the underlying convection, and are possibly linked with regions of shear-induced turbulence.

Launched in 2006, the Formosa Satellite Mission 3–Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC) was the first constellation of microsatellites carrying global positioning system (GPS) radio occultation (RO) receivers. Radio occultation is an active remote sensing technique that provides valuable information on the vertical variations of electron density in the ionosphere, and temperature, pressure, and water vapor in the stratosphere and troposphere. COSMIC has demonstrated the great value of RO data in ionosphere, climate, and meteorological research and operational weather forecasting. However, there are still challenges using RO data, particularly in the moist lower troposphere and upper stratosphere. A COSMIC follow-on constellation, COSMIC-2, was launched into equatorial orbit in 2019. With increased signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) from improved receivers and digital beam steering antennas, COSMIC-2 will produce at least 5,000 high-quality RO profiles daily in the tropics and subtropics. In this paper, we summarize 1) recent (since 2011 when the last review was published) contributions of COSMIC and other RO observations to weather, climate, and space weather science; 2) the remaining challenges in RO applications; and 3) potential contributions to research and operations of COSMIC-2.

Description, Continued rise of the tropopause after 2000 in the Northern Hemisphere is mainly due to tropospheric warming., Tropopause height (H) is a sensitive diagnostic for anthropogenic climate change. Previous studies showed increases in H over 1980–2000 but were inconsistent in projecting H trends after 2000. While H generally responds to temperature changes in the troposphere and stratosphere, the relative importance of these two contributions is uncertain. Here, we use radiosonde balloon observations in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) over 20°N to 80°N to reveal a continuous rise of H over 1980–2020. Over 2001–2020, H increases at 50 to 60 m/decade, which is comparable to the trend over 1980–2000. The GPS radio occultation measurements from satellites and homogenized radiosonde records are in good agreement with those results. The continuous rise of the tropopause in the NH after 2000 results primarily from tropospheric warming. A large trend in H remains after major natural forcings for H are removed, providing further observational evidence for anthropogenic climate change.

The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 (WACCM6) is a major update of the whole atmosphere modeling capability in the Community Earth System Model (CESM), featuring enhanced physical, chemical and aerosol parameterizations. This work describes WACCM6 and some of the important features of the model. WACCM6 can reproduce many modes of variability and trends in the middle atmosphere, including the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation, Stratospheric Sudden Warmings and the evolution of Southern Hemisphere springtime ozone depletion over the 20th century. WACCM6 can also reproduce the climate and temperature trends of the 20th century throughout the atmospheric column. The representation of the climate has improved in WACCM6, relative to WACCM4. In addition, there are improvements in high latitude climate variability at the surface and sea ice extent in WACCM6 over the lower top version of the model (CAM6) that come from the extended vertical domain and expanded aerosol chemistry in WACCM6, highlighting the importance of the stratosphere and tropospheric chemistry for high latitude climate variability.

Stratospheric circulation is a critical part of the Arctic ozone cycle. Sudden stratospheric warming events (SSWs) manifest the strongest alteration of stratospheric dynamics. During SSWs, changes in planetary wave propagation vigorously influence zonal mean zonal wind, temperature, and tracer concentrations in the stratosphere over the high latitudes. In this study, we examine six persistent major SSWs from 2004 to 2020 using the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Using the unique density of observations around the Greenland sector at high latitudes, we perform comprehensive comparisons of high-latitude observations with the MERRA-2 ozone dataset during the six major SSWs. Our results show that MERRA-2 captures the high variability of mid-stratospheric ozone fluctuations during SSWs over high latitudes. However, larger uncertainties are observed in the lower stratosphere and troposphere. The zonally averaged stratospheric ozone shows a dramatic increase of 9 %–29 % in total column ozone (TCO) near the time of each SSW, which lasts up to 2 months. This study shows that the average shape of the Arctic polar vortex before SSWs influences the geographical extent, timing, and magnitude of ozone changes. The SSWs exhibit a more significant impact on ozone over high northern latitudes when the average polar vortex is mostly elongated as seen in 2009 and 2018 compared to the events in which the polar vortex is displaced towards Europe. Strong correlation (R2=90 %) is observed between the magnitude of change in average equivalent potential vorticity before and after SSWs and the associated averaged total column ozone changes over high latitudes. This paper investigates the different terms of the ozone continuity equation using MERRA-2 circulation, which emphasizes the key role of vertical advection in mid-stratospheric ozone during the SSWs and the magnified vertical advection in elongated vortex shape as seen in 2009 and 2018.

Observations show strong correlations between large-scale ozone and temperature variations in the tropical lower stratosphere across a wide range of time scales. We quantify this behavior using monthly records of ozone and temperature data from SHADOZ tropical balloon measurements (1998–2016), along with global satellite data from Aura MLS and GPS radio occultation over 2004–2018. The observational data demonstrate strong in-phase ozone-temperature coherence spanning sub-seasonal, annual and interannual time scales, and the slope of the ozone-temperature relationship (O3/T) varies as a function of time scale and altitude. We compare the observations to idealized calculations based on the coupled zonal mean thermodynamic and ozone continuity equations, including ozone radiative feedbacks on temperature, where both temperature and ozone respond in a coupled manner to variations in the tropical upwelling Brewer-Dobson circulation. These calculations can approximately explain the observed (O3/T) amplitude and phase relationships, including sensitivity to time scale and altitude, and highlight distinct balances for ‘fast’ variations (periods

Eastward eddy shedding of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) anticyclone has a large impact on the chemical composition of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) over the western Pacific. Here we investigate the dynamical mechanism of eastward eddy shedding in July and August using 41 years of the ERA5 6-hourly reanalysis data. We perform composite analyses of meteorological variables focusing on the eastward eddy shedding events with the presence of anticyclonic centers falling between 135•-140•E. The composited outgoing longwave radiation anomalies suggest enhanced convection near the Philippines Sea and the East China Sea one week beforehand. In the tropopause level, we see evident eastward propagating geopotential and meridional wind anomalies from the North Atlantic jet exit toward the western Pacific embedded along the extratropical westerly jet during day -10 to day 0. In the lower troposphere, we find that the geopotential anomalies aligned meridionally from the east Asian coast to the North Pacific to the northern North America during day -7 to day 0. The wave-activity flux is evaluated to identify the origin and propagation of the energy of the Rossby wave–like perturbation. In the UTLS we find a strong southeastward-pointing flux along 40•-50•N, resembling the Silk Road pattern. While in the lower troposphere, we also see a northeastward-pointing flux originating from tropical Philippine Sea across Japan to North America, resembling the Pacific-Japan pattern. Additional analysis is needed to study the relationship between the Silk Road pattern and the Pacific-Japan pattern.

A configuration of an idealized general circulation model has been obtained in which a deep, stratospheric, equatorial, westerly jet is established that is spontaneously and quasi-periodically disrupted by shallow easterly jets. Similar to the disruption of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) observed in early 2016, meridional fluxes of wave activity are found to play a central role. The possible relevance of two feedback mechanisms to these disruptions is considered. The first involves the secondary circulation produced in the shear zones on the upper and lower flanks of the easterly jet. This is found to play a role in maintaining the aspect ratio of the emerging easterly jet. The second involves the organization of the eddy fluxes by the mean flow: the presence of a weak easterly anomaly within a tall, tropical, westerly jet is demonstrated to produce enhanced and highly focused wave activity fluxes that reinforce and strengthen the easterly anomalies. The eddies appear to be organized by the formation of strong potential vorticity gradients on the subtropical flanks of the easterly anomaly. Similar wave activity and potential vorticity structures are found in the ERA-Interim for the observed QBO disruption, indicating this second feedback was active then.

Large-scale tracer transport in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) is investigated using simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) over the period 1955–2099. The analyses are based on e90, an artificial passive tracer with constant emissions and atmospheric loss rates. The separate contributions of advection by the residual circulation, eddy mixing, and subgrid convection to total transport are explicitly evaluated. The results highlight distinct large-scale transport regimes in the tropics, characterized by efficient vertical tracer transport, and the extratropics, dominated by isentropic mixing. One novel result is the important role of vertical eddy mixing in the tropical upper troposphere. It is shown that interannual variability in e90 is largely driven by El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the quasi-biennial oscillation. The long-term trends emphasize a strong impact of a rising tropopause with climate change on UTLS dynamics and tracer transport. The analyses directly attribute the e90 trends to changes in the different transport components. Stronger residual circulation in the future leads to increased tracer concentrations in the tropical lower stratosphere. Enhanced eddy mixing increases e90 in the extratropical lowermost stratosphere, linked to an upward shift of wave dissipation tied to the tropopause rise. In the troposphere, reduced concentrations in the future are due to weaker convective transport out of the boundary layer and weaker extratropical isentropic eddy mixing.

Decadal-scale trends in tropospheric and stratospheric temperatures derived from satellite measurements over 1979-2014 are compared with ensemble simulations from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The model is forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), changes in greenhouse gases (GHG) and ozone depleting substances (ODS), plus solar and volcanic effects, and results from five WACCM realizations (with slightly different initial conditions) are analyzed. We focus on the vertical structure of tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling increasing with height, the latitudinal and seasonal dependence of trends, and on the temporal evolution of stratospheric temperatures in response to stratospheric ozone depletion and partial recovery. The model captures the observed trend structure in most respects, and the ensemble of simulations provides quantitative estimates of the impact of internal variability on trend estimates. In regions of low variability (e.g. over low latitudes) the ensemble mean trends agree with the observations, while in regions of high variability (e.g. the polar stratosphere) the observations mostly fall within the range of realizations. Temperature response to evolving stratospheric ozone is evaluated by computing separate trends over 1979-1997 (ozone depletion) and 1998-2014 (partial recovery). Robust changes in temperature trends between these periods occur in the global upper stratosphere and in the Antarctic spring lower stratosphere, with consistent behavior between model and observations. Observed lower stratospheric temperatures in the Antarctic show statistically significant warming after 1998, reflecting recently reported healing of the ozone hole.

Transport in the tropical lower stratosphere plays a major role in determining the composition of the entire stratosphere. Previous studies that quantified the relative role of transport processes have generally assumed âĂIJwell mixedâĂI tropics and focused on tropical-wide average characteristics. However, it has recently been shown that there is a hemispheric difference in the annual cycle of tropical lower stratosphere ozone and other tracers, with a larger amplitude in the northern tropics (NT) than in the southern tropics (ST). In this study, we examined the ability of chemistry climate models (CCMs) to reproduce the hemispheric differences in ozone (O3) and other tracers (i.e hydrochloric acid, or HCl and nitrous oxide, or N2O), and then use the CCMs to examine the cause of these differences. Examination of CCM simulations from the CCMVal-2 project shows that the majority of the CCMs produce the observed feature of a larger annual cycle in the NT than ST O3 and other tracers. However, only around a third of the models produce an ozone annual cycle similar to that observed. Transformed Eulerian Mean (TEM) analysis of two of the CCMs shows that seasonality in vertical advection drives the seasonality in ST O3 and N2O while seasonality of horizontal mixing drives the seasonality in NT O3 and N2O, with a large increase in horizontal mixing during northern summer (associated with the Asian monsoon). Thus, latitudinal and longitudinal variations within the tropics have to be considered to fully understand the balance between transport processes in tropical lower stratosphere.

This presentation reports the findings of a multi-model pre-mission study in preparation for an airborne field campaign to investigate the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) composition under the influence of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). The NSF/NASA supported airborne study is planned for the western Pacific atmosphere during July-August 2020 using a base in Okinawa, Japan. The pre-mission study uses three chemistry-transport models (i.e., NASA GSFC GEOS5, NCAR WACCM, and ECMWF CAMS) to investigate transport patterns and gas and aerosol chemical composition in the campaign region UTLS during the 2019 ASM period. In addition, artificial surface tracers from the WRF model helped identify the locations and evolution of rapid convective uplifting from regional sources. The impact of one typhoon occurrence during this 2019 ASM period will be discussed. Together, the multi-model results support the hypotheses of the ACCLIP campaign which identifies the western Pacific as a significant pathway for reactive chemical pollutants and climate relevant emissions from the ASM to enter the global UTLS.

We study fast transport of air from the surface into the North American upper troposphere-lower stratosphere (UTLS) during northern summer with a large ensemble of Boundary Impulse Response (BIR) idealized tracers. Specifically, we implement 90 pulse tracers at the Northern Hemisphere surface and release them during July and August months in the fully coupled Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) version 5. We focus on the most efficient transport cases above southern U.S. (10°-40°N, 60°-140°W) at 100 hPa with modal ages fall below 10th percentile. We examine transport-related terms, including resolved dynamics computed inside model transport scheme and parameterized processes (vertical diffusion and convective parameterization), to pin down the dominant dynamical mechanism. Our results show during the fastest transport, air parcels enter ULTS directly above the Gulf of Mexico. The budget analysis indicates that strong deep convection over the Gulf of Mexico fast uplift the tracer into 200 hPa, and then is vertically advected into 100 hPa and circulated by the enhanced large-scale anticyclone.

This study investigates relationships between daily variability in National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), as a proxy for deep convection, and the global diabatic heat budget derived from reanalysis data sets. Results are evaluated based on data from ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA-Interim), Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA2). The diabatic heating is separated into components linked to ‘physics’ (mainly latent heat fluxes), plus longwave (LW) and shortwave (SW) radiative tendencies. Transient variability in deep convection is highly correlated with diabatic heating throughout the troposphere and stratosphere. Correlation patterns and composite analyses show that enhanced deep convection (lower OLR) is linked to amplified heating in the tropical troposphere and in the mid-latitude storm tracks, tied to latent heat release. Enhanced convection is also linked to radiative cooling in the lower stratosphere, due to weaker upwelling LW from lower altitudes. Enhanced transient deep convection increases LW and decreases SW radiation in the lower troposphere, with opposite effects in the mid to upper troposphere. The compensating effects in LW and SW radiation are largely linked to variations in cloud fraction and water content (vapor, liquid and ice). These radiative balances in reanalyses are in agreement with idealized calculations using a column radiative transfer model. The overall relationships between OLR and diabatic heating are robust among the different reanalyses, although there are differences in radiative tendencies in the tropics due to large differences of cloud water and ice content among the reanalyses. These calculations provide a simple statistical method to quantify variations in diabatic heating linked to transient deep convection in the climate system.

Temperature trends in the middle and upper stratosphere are evaluated using measurements from the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU), combined with data from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Sounding of the Atmosphere Using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instruments. Data from MLS and SABER are vertically integrated to approximate the SSU weighting functions and combined with SSU to provide a data record spanning 1979–2015. Vertical integrals are calculated using empirically derived Gaussian weighting functions, which provide improved agreement with high-latitude SSU measurements compared to previously derived weighting functions. These merged SSU data are used to evaluate decadal-scale trends, solar cycle variations, and volcanic effects from the lower to the upper stratosphere. Episodic warming is observed following the volcanic eruptions of El Chichón (1982) and Mt. Pinatubo (1991), focused in the tropics in the lower stratosphere and in high latitudes in the middle and upper stratosphere. Solar cycle variations are centered in the tropics, increasing in amplitude from the lower to the upper stratosphere. Linear trends over 1979–2015 show that cooling increases with altitude from the lower stratosphere (from ~−0.1 to −0.2 K decade−1) to the middle and upper stratosphere (from ~−0.5 to −0.6 K decade−1). Cooling in the middle and upper stratosphere is relatively uniform in latitudes north of about 30°S, but trends decrease to near zero over the Antarctic. Mid- and upper-stratospheric temperatures show larger cooling over the first half of the data record (1979–97) compared to the second half (1998–2015), reflecting differences in upper-stratospheric ozone trends between these periods.

The stratospheric influence on summertime high surface ozone ( O 3 ) events is examined using a twenty-year simulation from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model. We find that O 3 transported from the stratosphere makes a significant contribution to the surface O 3 variability where background surface O 3 exceeds the 95th percentile, especially over western U.S. Maximum covariance analysis is applied to O 3 anomalies paired with stratospheric O 3 tracer anomalies to identify the stratospheric intrusion and the underlying dynamical mechanism. The first leading mode corresponds to deep stratospheric intrusions in the western and northern tier of the U.S., and intensified northeasterlies in the mid-to-lower troposphere along the west coast, which also facilitate the transport to the eastern Pacific Ocean. The second leading mode corresponds to deep intrusions over the Intermountain Regions. Both modes are associated with eastward propagating baroclinic systems, which are amplified near the end of the North Pacific storm tracks, leading to strong descents over the western U.S.

It has recently been recognized that, in addition to greenhouse gases, anthropogenic emissions of ozone-depleting substances (ODS) can induce long-term trends in the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC). Several studies have shown that a substantial fraction of the residual circulation acceleration over the last decades of the twentieth century can be attributed to increasing ODS. Here the mechanisms of this influence are examined, comparing model runs to reanalysis data and evaluating separately the residual circulation and mixing contributions to the mean age of air trends. The effects of ozone depletion in the Antarctic lower stratosphere are found to dominate the ODS impact on the BDC, while the direct radiative impact of these substances is negligible over the period of study. We find qualitative agreement in austral summer BDC trends between model and reanalysis data and show that ODS are the main driver of both residual circulation and isentropic mixing trends over the last decades of the twentieth century. Moreover, aging by isentropic mixing is shown to play a key role on ODS-driven age of air trends.

Simulated stratospheric temperatures over the period 1979–2016 in models from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative are compared with recently updated and extended satellite data sets. The multimodel mean global temperature trends over 1979–2005 are -0.88 ± 0.23, -0.70 ± 0.16, and -0.50 ± 0.12 K/decade for the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) channels 3 (~40–50 km), 2 (~35–45 km), and 1 (~25–35 km), respectively (with 95% confidence intervals). These are within the uncertainty bounds of the observed temperature trends from two reprocessed SSU data sets. In the lower stratosphere, the multimodel mean trend in global temperature for the Microwave Sounding Unit channel 4 (~13–22 km) is -0.25 ± 0.12 K/decade over 1979–2005, consistent with observed estimates from three versions of this satellite record. The models and an extended satellite data set comprised of SSU with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A show weaker global stratospheric cooling over 1998–2016 compared to the period of intensive ozone depletion (1979–1997). This is due to the reduction in ozone-induced cooling from the slowdown of ozone trends and the onset of ozone recovery since the late 1990s. In summary, the results show much better consistency between simulated and satellite-observed stratospheric temperature trends than was reported by Thompson et al. (2012, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11579) for the previous versions of the SSU record and chemistry-climate models. The improved agreement mainly comes from updates to the satellite records; the range of stratospheric temperature trends over 1979–2005 simulated in Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative models is comparable to the previous generation of chemistry-climate models.

The zonal wavenumber spectrum of atmospheric wave forcing in the lower stratosphere is examined to understand the annual cycle of upwelling at the tropical tropopause. Tropopause upwelling is derived based on the wave forcing computed from ERA-Interim using the momentum and mass conservation equations in the transformed Eulerian-mean framework. The calculated upwelling agrees well with other upwelling estimates and successfully captures the annual cycle, with a maximum during Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter. The spectrum of wave forcing reveals that the zonal wavenumber-3 component drives a large portion of the annual cycle in upwelling. The wave activity flux (Eliassen–Palm flux) shows that the associated waves originate from the NH extratropics and the Southern Hemisphere tropics during December–February, with both regions contributing significant wavenumber-3 fluxes. These wave fluxes are nearly absent during June–August. Wavenumbers 1 and 2 and synoptic-scale waves have a notable contribution to tropopause upwelling but have little influence on the annual cycle, except the wavenumber-4 component. The quasigeostrophic refractive index suggests that the NH extratropical wavenumber-3 component can enhance tropopause upwelling because these planetary-scale waves are largely trapped in the vertical, while being refracted toward the subtropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Regression analysis based on interannual variability suggests that the wavenumber-3 waves are related to tropical convection and wave breaking along the subtropical jet in the NH extratropics.

Satellite-based layer average stratospheric temperature (T) climate data records (CDRs) now span more than three decades and so can elucidate climate variability associated with processes on multiple time scales. We intercompare and analyze available published T CDRs covering at least two decades, with a focus on Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) and Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) CDRs. Recent research has reduced but not eliminated discrepancies between SSU CDRs developed by NOAA and the UK Meteorological Office. The MSU CDRs from NOAA and Remote Sensing Systems are in closer agreement than the CDR from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. The latter has a previously unreported inhomogeneity in 2005, revealed by an abrupt increase in the magnitude and spatial variability of T anomaly differences between CDRs. Although time-varying biases remain in both SSU and MSU CDRs, multiple linear regression analyses reveal consistent solar, El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), quasi-biennial oscillation, aerosol, and piecewise-linear trend signals. Together, these predictors explain 80 to 90% of the variance in the near-global-average T CDRs. The most important predictor variables (in terms of percent explained variance in near-global-average T) for lower stratospheric T measured by MSU are aerosols, solar variability, and ENSO. Trends explain the largest percentage of variance in observations from all three SSU channels. In MSU and SSU CDRs, piecewise-linear trends, with a 1995 break point, indicate cooling during 1979–1994 but no trend during 1995–2013 for MSU and during 1995–2005 for SSU. These observational findings provide a basis for evaluating climate model simulations of stratospheric temperature during the past 35 years.

A recent airborne field campaign over the remote western Pacific obtained the first intensive in situ ozone sampling over the warm pool region from oceanic surface to 15-km altitude (near 360-K potential temperature level). The new data set quantifies ozone in the tropical tropopause layer under significant influence of convective outflow. The analysis further reveals a bimodal distribution of free tropospheric ozone mixing ratio. A primary mode, narrowly distributed around 20-ppbv, dominates the troposphere from the surface to 15-km. A secondary mode, broadly distributed with a 60-ppbv modal value, is prominent between 3 and 8-km (320-K to 340-K potential temperature levels). The latter mode occurs as persistent layers of ozone-rich drier air and is characterized by relative humidity under 45%. Possible controlling mechanisms are discussed. These findings provide new insight into the physical interpretation of the >S>-shaped mean ozone profiles in the tropics.

International audience; Most chemistry-climate models show an intensification of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) in the stratosphere associated with increasing greenhouse gas emissions and ozone depletion in the last decades, but this trend remains to be confirmed in observational data. In this work the evolution of the advective BDC for the period 1979-2012 is evaluated and compared in three modern reanalyses (ERA-Interim, MERRA, and JRA-55). Three different estimates of the BDC are computed for each reanalysis, one based on the definition of the residual circulation and two indirect estimates derived from momentum and thermodynamic balances. The comparison among the nine estimates shows substantial uncertainty in the mean magnitude (∼40%) but significant common variability. The tropical upwelling series show variability linked to the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation and to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and also reflect extreme events such as major sudden stratospheric warmings and volcanic eruptions. The trend analysis suggests a strengthening of tropical upwelling of around 2-5%/decade throughout the layer 100-10 hPa. The global spatial structure of the BDC trends provides evidence of an overall acceleration of the circulation in both hemispheres, with qualitative agreement among the estimates. The global BDC trends are mainly linked to changes in the boreal winter season and can be tracked to long-term increases in the resolved wave drag in both hemispheres.

Water vapor in the lower stratosphere exhibits localized maximum values during Northern Hemisphere summer in the Asian and North American (NA) monsoon regions. The processes maintaining these maxima are not well understood. We analyze the variability of water vapor in the monsoon regions based on Aura Microwave Limb Sounder satellite observations during 2005–2013 and quantify links to deep convection, large-scale temperatures, and monsoonal circulations. Strong subseasonal variations in stratospheric water vapor are closely linked with deep convection in the monsoon regions, with the surprising result that stronger convection leads to a relatively dry stratosphere and weaker convection to a wetter stratosphere. This result is observed for both the Asian and NA monsoon regions. This behavior is explained by temperature changes in the stratosphere tied to deep convection: stronger convection leads to relatively cold temperatures in the subtropical lower stratosphere, which is the key region controlling large-scale dehydration within the anticyclonic monsoonal circulations. Likewise, weaker convection leads to warmer subtropical stratospheric temperatures, relatively less dehydration, and enhanced water vapor. The observed water vapor changes are in approximate agreement with those expected from the subtropical temperature variations, taking into account dilution of the dehydrated air into the larger monsoon region. These results demonstrate that stratospheric water vapor in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions is mainly controlled by large-scale circulation and temperatures, and overshooting deep convection plays a relatively minor role.