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The size of a protoplanetary disk is a fundamental property, yet most remain unresolved, even in nearby star-forming regions (d $\sim$ 140-200 pc). We present the complete continuum size distribution for the $105$ brightest protoplanetary disks (M$_{\text{dust}}$ $\gtrsim$ 2 M$_{\oplus}$) in the Ophiuchus cloud, obtained from ALMA Band 8 (410 GHz) observations at 0.05$^{\prime\prime}$ (7 au) to 0.15$^{\prime\prime}$ (21 au) resolution. This sample includes 54 Class II and 51 Class I and Flat Spectrum sources, providing a comprehensive distribution across evolutionary stages. We measure the Half Width at Half Maximum (HWHM) and the radius encircling $68\%$ of the flux ($R_{68\%}$) for most non-binary disks, yielding the largest flux-limited sample of resolved disks in any star-forming region. The distribution is log-normal with a median value of $\sim$14 au and a logarithmic standard deviation $\sigma_{\log} = 0.46$ (factor of 2.9 in linear scale). Disks in close binary systems ($<$ 200 au separation) have smaller radii, with median value of $\sim$5 au, indicating efficient radial drift as predicted by dust evolution models. The size distribution for young embedded objects (SED Class I and Flat Spectrum, age $\lesssim$ 1 Myr) is similar to that of Class II objects (age $\sim$ a few Myr), implying that pressure bumps must be common at early disk stages to prevent mm-sized particle migration at au scales., Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures

Astronomers often deal with data where the covariates and the dependent variable are measured with heteroscedastic non-Gaussian error. For instance, while TESS and Kepler datasets provide a wealth of information, addressing the challenges of measurement errors and systematic biases is critical for extracting reliable scientific insights and improving machine learning models' performance. Although techniques have been developed for estimating regression parameters for these data, few techniques exist to construct prediction intervals with finite sample coverage guarantees. To address this issue, we tailor the conformal prediction approach to our application. We empirically demonstrate that this method gives finite sample control over Type I error probabilities under a variety of assumptions on the measurement errors in the observed data. Further, we demonstrate how the conformal prediction method could be used for constructing prediction intervals for unobserved exoplanet masses using established broken power-law relationships between masses and radii found in the literature.

The inferential model (IM) framework offers an alternative to the classical probabilistic (e.g., Bayesian and fiducial) uncertainty quantification in statistical inference. A key distinction is that classical uncertainty quantification takes the form of precise probabilities and offers only limited large-sample validity guarantees, whereas the IM's uncertainty quantification is imprecise in such a way that exact, finite-sample valid inference is possible. But is the IM's imprecision and finite-sample validity compatible with statistical efficiency? That is, can IMs be both finite-sample valid and asymptotically efficient? This paper gives an affirmative answer to this question via a new possibilistic Bernstein--von Mises theorem that parallels a fundamental Bayesian result. Among other things, our result shows that the IM solution is efficient in the sense that, asymptotically, its credal set is the smallest that contains the Gaussian distribution with variance equal to the Cramer--Rao lower bound. Moreover, a corresponding version of this new Bernstein--von Mises theorem is presented for problems that involve the elimination of nuisance parameters, which settles an open question concerning the relative efficiency of profiling-based versus extension-based marginalization strategies.

Large pretrained models often struggle with underspecified tasks -- situations where the training data does not fully define the desired behavior. For example, chatbots must handle diverse and often conflicting user preferences, requiring adaptability to various user needs. We propose a novel framework to address the general challenge of aligning models to test-time user intent, which is rarely fully specified during training. Our approach involves training an efficient ensemble, i.e., a single neural network with multiple prediction heads, each representing a different function consistent with the training data. Our main contribution is HyRe, a simple adaptation technique that dynamically reweights ensemble members at test time using a small set of labeled examples from the target distribution, which can be labeled in advance or actively queried from a larger unlabeled pool. By leveraging recent advances in scalable ensemble training, our method scales to large pretrained models, with computational costs comparable to fine-tuning a single model. We empirically validate HyRe in several underspecified scenarios, including personalization tasks and settings with distribution shifts. Additionally, with just five preference pairs from each target distribution, the same ensemble adapted via HyRe outperforms the prior state-of-the-art 2B-parameter reward model accuracy across 18 evaluation distributions., Comment: Preprint

Compared to p-values, e-values provably guarantee safe, valid inference. If the goal is to test multiple hypotheses simultaneously, one can construct e-values for each individual test and then use the recently developed e-BH procedure to properly correct for multiplicity. Standard e-value constructions, however, require distributional assumptions that may not be justifiable. This paper demonstrates that the generalized universal inference framework can be used along with the e-BH procedure to control frequentist error rates in multiple testing when the quantities of interest are minimizers of risk functions, thereby avoiding the need for distributional assumptions. We demonstrate the validity and power of this approach via a simulation study, testing the significance of a predictor in quantile regression., Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures

Untreated periodontitis causes inflammation within the supporting tissue of the teeth and can ultimately lead to tooth loss. Modeling periodontal outcomes is beneficial as they are difficult and time consuming to measure, but disparities in representation between demographic groups must be considered. There may not be enough participants to build group specific models and it can be ineffective, and even dangerous, to apply a model to participants in an underrepresented group if demographic differences were not considered during training. We propose an extension to RECaST Bayesian transfer learning framework. Our method jointly models multivariate outcomes, exhibiting significant improvement over the previous univariate RECaST method. Further, we introduce an online approach to model sequential data sets. Negative transfer is mitigated to ensure that the information shared from the other demographic groups does not negatively impact the modeling of the underrepresented participants. The Bayesian framework naturally provides uncertainty quantification on predictions. Especially important in medical applications, our method does not share data between domains. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in both predictive performance and uncertainty quantification on simulated data and on a database of dental records from the HealthPartners Institute., Comment: 30 pages, 1 figure, 17 tables

Forecasting of armed conflicts is an important area of research that has the potential to save lives and prevent suffering. However, most existing forecasting models provide only point predictions without any individual-level uncertainty estimates. In this paper, we introduce a novel extension to conformal prediction algorithm which we call bin-conditional conformal prediction. This method allows users to obtain individual-level prediction intervals for any arbitrary prediction model while maintaining a specific level of coverage across user-defined ranges of values. We apply the bin-conditional conformal prediction algorithm to forecast fatalities from armed conflict. Our results demonstrate that the method provides well-calibrated uncertainty estimates for the predicted number of fatalities. Compared to standard conformal prediction, the bin-conditional method outperforms offers improved calibration of coverage rates across different values of the outcome, but at the cost of wider prediction intervals.

Millimeter emitting dust grains have sizes that make them susceptible to drift in protoplanetary disks due to a difference between their orbital speed and that of the gas. The characteristic drift timescale depends on the surface density of the gas. By comparing disk radii measurements from ALMA CO and continuum observations at millimeter wavelengths, the gas surface density profile and dust drift time can be self-consistently determined. We find that profiles which match the measured dust mass have very short drift timescales, an order of magnitude or more shorter than the stellar age, whereas profiles for disks that are on the cusp of gravitational instability, defined via the minimum value of the Toomre parameter, Qmin ~ 1-2, have drift timescales comparable to the stellar lifetime. This holds for disks with masses of dust > 5 MEarth across a range of absolute ages from less than 1 Myr to over 10 Myr. The inferred disk masses scale with stellar mass as Mdisk ~ Mstar / 5Qmin. This interpretation of the gas and dust disk sizes simultaneously solves two long standing issues regarding the dust lifetime and exoplanet mass budget and suggests that we consider millimeter wavelength observations as a window into an underlying population of particles with a wide size distribution in secular evolution with a massive planetesimal disk., Comment: 18 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ

ALMA has detected substructures in numerous protoplanetary disks at radii from a few to over a hundred au. These substructures are commonly thought to be associated with planet formation, either by serving as sites fostering planetesimal formation or arising as a consequence of planet-disk interactions. Our current understanding of substructures, though, is primarily based on observations of nearby star-forming regions with mild UV environments, whereas stars are typically born in much harsher UV environments, which may inhibit planet formation in the outer disk through external photoevaporation. We present high resolution ($\sim8$ au) ALMA 1.3 mm continuum images of eight disks in $\sigma$ Orionis, a cluster irradiated by an O9.5 star. Gaps and rings are resolved in the images of five disks. The most striking of these is SO 1274, which features five gaps that appear to be arranged nearly in a resonant chain. In addition, we infer the presence of gap or shoulder-like structures in the other three disks through visibility modeling. These observations indicate that substructures robustly form and survive at semi-major axes of several tens of au or less in disks exposed to intermediate levels of external UV radiation as well as in compact disks. However, our observations also suggest that disks in $\sigma$ Orionis are mostly small and thus millimeter continuum gaps beyond a disk radius of 50 au are rare in this region, possibly due to either external photoevaporation or age effects., Comment: Accepted by ApJ, typos corrected from v1

Recent Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) observations of protoplanetary disks in the millimeter continuum have shown a variety of radial gaps, cavities, and spiral features. These substructures may be signposts for ongoing planet formation, and therefore these systems are promising targets for direct imaging planet searches in the near-infrared. To this end, we present results from a deep imaging survey in the $L'$-band (3.8 $\mu$m) with the Keck/NIRC2 vortex coronagraph to search for young planets in 43 disks with resolved features in the millimeter continuum or evidence for gaps/central cavities from their spectral energy distributions. Although we do not detect any new point sources, using the vortex coronagraph allows for high sensitivity to faint sources at small angular separations (down to ${\sim}$0$^{\prime\prime}$.1), allowing us to place strong upper limits on the masses of potential gas giant planets. We compare our mass sensitivities to the masses of planets derived using ALMA observations, and while we are sensitive to $\sim$1 M$_{Jup}$ planets in the gaps in some of our systems, we are generally not sensitive to planets of the masses expected from the ALMA observations. In addition to placing upper limits on the masses of gas giant planets that could be interacting with the dust in the disks to form the observed millimeter substructures, we are also able to map the micron-sized dust as seen in scattered light for 8 of these systems. Our large sample of systems also allows us to investigate limits on planetary accretion rates and disk viscosities., Comment: 23 pages, 14 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in AJ

We present the results of the ALMA Large Program Early Planet Formation in Embedded disks observations of the Class 0 protostar GSS30 IRS3. Our observations included 1.3 mm continuum with a resolution of 0.''05 (7.8 au) and several molecular species including $^{12}$CO, $^{13}$CO, C$^{18}$O, H$_{2}$CO and c-C$_{3}$H$_{2}$. The dust continuum analysis unveiled a disk-shaped structure with a major axis size of $\sim$200 au. We observed an asymmetry in the minor axis of the continuum emission suggesting that the emission is optically thick and the disk is flared. On the other hand, we identified two prominent bumps along the major axis located at distances of 26 and 50 au from the central protostar. The origin of the bumps remains uncertain and might be due to an embedded substructure within the disk or the result of the temperature distribution instead of surface density due to optically thick continuum emission. The $^{12}$CO emission reveals a molecular outflow consisting of three distinct components: a collimated one, an intermediate velocity component exhibiting an hourglass shape, and a wider angle low-velocity component. We associate these components with the coexistence of a jet and a disk-wind. The C$^{18}$O emission traces both a Keplerian rotating circumstellar disk and the infall of the rotating envelope. We measured a stellar dynamical mass of 0.35$\pm$0.09 M$_{\odot}$., Comment: 25 pages, 19 figures. Accepted for publication in A&A

The interplay between T Tauri stars and their circumstellar disks, and how this impacts the onset of planet formation has yet to be established. We studied a seemingly old T Tauri star, PDS 111, and its disk. We analyzed optical, infrared, and sub-millimeter observations obtained with VLT/X-shooter, Mercator/HERMES, TESS, VLT/SPHERE, and ALMA, providing a new view on PDS 111 and its protoplanetary disk. The multi-epoch spectroscopy yields photospheric lines to classify the star, and emission lines to study variability in the hot inner disk and to determine the mass-accretion rate. The SPHERE and ALMA observations are used to characterize the dust distribution of the small and large grains, respectively. PDS 111 is a weak-line T Tauri star with spectral type G2, exhibits strong H$\alpha$ variability and with a low mass-accretion rate of $1-5\times10^{-10}$\,M$_{\odot}$\,yr$^{-1}$. We measured an age of the system of 15.9$^{+1.7}_{-3.7}$ Myr using pre-main sequence tracks. The SPHERE observations show a strongly flaring disk with an asymmetric substructure. The ALMA observations reveal a 30 au cavity in the dust continuum emission with a low contrast asymmetry in the South-West of the disk and a dust disk mass of 45.8\,$M_\oplus$. The $^{12}$CO radial extension is at least three times larger than that of the dust emission. Although the measured age is younger than suggested in literature, PDS 111 still seems relatively old; this provides insight into disk properties at an advanced stage of pre-main sequence evolution. The characteristics of this disk are very similar to its younger counterparts: strongly flaring, an average disk mass, a typical radial extent of the disk gas and dust, and the presence of common substructures. This suggests that disk evolution has not significantly changed the disk properties. These results show similarities with the "Peter Pan disks" around M-dwarfs., Comment: 23 pages, 23 figures, accepted by A&A (abstract shortened)

Building on the recent development of the model-free generalized fiducial (MFGF) paradigm (Williams, 2023) for predictive inference with finite-sample frequentist validity guarantees, in this paper, we develop an MFGF-based approach to decision theory. Beyond the utility of the new tools we contribute to the field of decision theory, our work establishes a formal connection between decision theories from the perspectives of fiducial inference, conformal prediction, and imprecise probability theory. In our paper, we establish pointwise and uniform consistency of an {\em MFGF upper risk function} as an approximation to the true risk function via the derivation of nonasymptotic concentration bounds, and our work serves as the foundation for future investigations of the properties of the MFGF upper risk from the perspective of new decision-theoretic, finite-sample validity criterion, as in Martin (2021).

The magnetic field of a molecular cloud core may play a role in the formation of circumstellar disks in the core. We present magnetic field morphologies in protostellar cores of 16 targets in the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array large program "Early Planet Formation in Embedded Disks (eDisk)", which resolved their disks with 7 au resolutions. The 0.1-pc scale magnetic field morphologies were inferred from the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope (JCMT) POL-2 observations. The mean orientations and angular dispersions of the magnetic fields in the dense cores are measured and compared with the radii of the 1.3 mm continuum disks and the dynamically determined protostellar masses from the eDisk program. We observe a significant correlation between the disk radii and the stellar masses. We do not find any statistically significant dependence of the disk radii on the projected misalignment angles between the rotational axes of the disks and the magnetic fields in the dense cores, nor on the angular dispersions of the magnetic fields within these cores. However, when considering the projection effect, we cannot rule out a positive correlation between disk radii and misalignment angles in three-dimensional space. Our results suggest that the morphologies of magnetic fields in dense cores do not play a dominant role in the disk formation process. Instead, the sizes of protostellar disks may be more strongly affected by the amount of mass that has been accreted onto star+disk systems, and possibly other parameters, for example, magnetic field strength, core rotation, and magnetic diffusivity., Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures, accepted by ApJ

We present a multi-wavelength (1.16$\mu$m-2.37$\mu$m) view of the debris disk around BD+45$^\circ$598, using the Subaru Coronagraphic Extreme Adaptive Optics system paired with the Coronagraphic High Angular Resolution Imaging Spectrograph. With an assumed age of 23 Myr, this source allows us to study the early evolution of debris disks and search for forming planets. We fit a scattered light model to our disk using a differential evolution algorithm, and constrain its geometry. We find the disk to have a peak density radius of $R_0 = 109.6$ au, an inclination of $i = 88.1^\circ$, and position angle $PA = 111.0^\circ$. While we do not detect a substellar companion in the disk, our calculated contrast limits indicate sensitivity to planets as small as $\sim 10 M_{\rm Jup}$ at a projected separation of 12 au of the star, and as small as $\sim 4 M_{\rm Jup}$ beyond 38 au. When measuring intensity as a function of wavelength, the disk color constrains the minimum dust grain size within a range of $\sim0.13$ to 1.01$\mu$m., Comment: 22 pages, 12 figures; Accepted to AJ

The inferential model (IM) framework offers alternatives to the familiar probabilistic (e.g., Bayesian and fiducial) uncertainty quantification in statistical inference. Allowing this uncertainty quantification to be imprecise makes it possible to achieve exact validity and reliability. But is imprecision and exact validity compatible with attainment of the classical notions of statistical efficiency? The present paper offers an affirmative answer to this question via a new possibilistic Bernstein--von Mises theorem that parallels a fundamental result in Bayesian inference. Among other things, our result demonstrates that the IM solution is asymptotically efficient in the sense that its asymptotic credal set is the smallest that contains the Gaussian distribution whose variance agrees with the Cramer--Rao lower bound., Comment: 8-page conference paper. Comments welcome at https://researchers.one/articles/24.04.00003

Transfer learning (TL) has emerged as a powerful tool to supplement data collected for a target task with data collected for a related source task. The Bayesian framework is natural for TL because information from the source data can be incorporated in the prior distribution for the target data analysis. In this paper, we propose and study Bayesian TL methods for the normal-means problem and multiple linear regression. We propose two classes of prior distributions. The first class assumes the difference in the parameters for the source and target tasks is sparse, i.e., many parameters are shared across tasks. The second assumes that none of the parameters are shared across tasks, but the differences are bounded in $\ell_2$-norm. For the sparse case, we propose a Bayes shrinkage estimator with theoretical guarantees under mild assumptions. The proposed methodology is tested on synthetic data and outperforms state-of-the-art TL methods. We then use this method to fine-tune the last layer of a neural network model to predict the molecular gap property in a material science application. We report improved performance compared to classical fine tuning and methods using only the target data.

We present the direct-imaging discovery of a substellar companion (a massive planet or low-mass brown dwarf) to the young, $\gamma$ Doradus-type variable star, HIP 39017 (HD 65526). The companion's SCExAO/CHARIS JHK ($1.1-2.4\mu$m) spectrum and Keck/NIRC2 L$^{\prime}$ photometry indicate that it is an L/T transition object. A comparison of the JHK+L$^{\prime}$ spectrum to several atmospheric model grids finds a significantly better fit to cloudy models than cloudless models. Orbit modeling with relative astrometry and precision stellar astrometry from Hipparcos and Gaia yields a semi-major axis of $23.8^{+8.7}_{-6.1}$ au, a dynamical companion mass of $30^{+31}_{-12}$~M$_J$, and a mass ratio of $\sim$1.9\%, properties most consistent with low-mass brown dwarfs. However, its mass estimated from luminosity models is a lower $\sim$13.8 $M_{\rm J}$ due to an estimated young age ($\lesssim$ 115 Myr); using a weighted posterior distribution informed by conservative mass constraints from luminosity evolutionary models yields a lower dynamical mass of $23.6_{-7.4}^{+9.1}$~M$_J$ and a mass ratio of $\sim$1.4\%. Analysis of the host star's multi-frequency $\gamma$ Dor-type pulsations, astrometric monitoring of HIP 39017b, and Gaia Data Release 4 astrometry of the star will clarify the system age and better constrain the mass and orbit of the companion. This discovery further reinforces the improved efficiency of targeted direct-imaging campaigns informed by long-baseline, precision stellar astrometry., Comment: Published in AJ: April 9, 2024

The mass assembly in star forming regions arises from the hierarchical structure in molecular clouds in tandem with fragmentation at different scales. In this paper, we present a study of the fragmentation of massive clumps covering a range of evolutionary states, selected from the ATLASGAL survey, using the compact configuration of the Submillimeter Array. The observations reveal a wide diversity in the fragmentation properties with about 60% of the sources showing limited to no fragmentation at the 2" scale, or a physical scale of 0.015 - 0.09 pc. We also find several examples where the cores detected with the Submillimeter array are significantly offset from the clump potential suggesting that initial fragmentation does not result in the formation of a large number of Jeans mass fragments. The fraction of the clump mass that is in compact structures is seen to increase with source evolution. We also see a significant correlation between the maximum mass of a fragment and the bolometric luminosity of the parent clump. These suggest that massive star formation proceeds through clump fed core accretion with the initial fragmentation being dependent on the density structure of the clumps and/or magnetic fields., Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal

We present evidence of variable 1.3 millimeter emission from the 1-3 Myr, SpT G2-G5 class III YSO, HD~283572. HD~283572 was observed on 8 dates with the Submillimeter Array between 2021 December and 2023 May, a total on-source time of 10.2 hours, probing a range of timescales down to 5.2 seconds. Averaging all data obtained on 2022 Jan 17 shows a 4.4 mJy ($8.8\sigma$) point source detection with a negative spectral index ($\alpha{=}{-2.7}{\pm}1.2$), with peak emission rising to 13.8 mJy in one 3 minute span, and 25 mJy in one 29.7 second integration ($L_\nu=4.7\times10^{17}$ erg s$^{-1}$ Hz$^{-1}$). Combining our data for the other 7 dates shows no detection, with an rms noise of 0.24 mJy beam$^{-1}$. The stochastic millimeter enhancements on time frames of seconds--minutes--hours with negative spectral indices are most plausibly explained by synchrotron or gyro-synchrotron radiation from stellar activity. HD 283572's 1.3 mm light-curve has similarities with variable binaries, suggesting HD 283572's activity may have been triggered by interactions with an as-yet undetected companion. We additionally identify variability of HD 283572 at 10 cm, from VLASS data. This study highlights the challenges of interpreting faint mm emission from evolved YSOs that may host tenuous disks, and suggests that a more detailed temporal analysis of spatially unresolved data is generally warranted. The variability of class III stars may open up new ground for understanding the physics of flares in the context of terrestrial planet formation., Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJL. 12 pages, inc. 5 figures, 2 tables

A common goal in statistics and machine learning is estimation of unknowns. Point estimates alone are of little value without an accompanying measure of uncertainty, but traditional uncertainty quantification methods, such as confidence sets and p-values, often require strong distributional or structural assumptions that may not be justified in modern problems. The present paper considers a very common case in machine learning, where the quantity of interest is the minimizer of a given risk (expected loss) function. For such cases, we propose a generalization of the recently developed universal inference procedure that is designed for inference on risk minimizers. Notably, our generalized universal inference attains finite-sample frequentist validity guarantees under a condition common in the statistical learning literature. One version of our procedure is also anytime-valid in the sense that it maintains the finite-sample validity properties regardless of the stopping rule used for the data collection process, thereby providing a link between safe inference and fast convergence rates in statistical learning. Practical use of our proposal requires tuning, and we offer a data-driven procedure with strong empirical performance across a broad range of challenging statistical and machine learning examples., Comment: 40 pages, 11 figures

Context. Elongated trails of infalling gas, often referred to as "streamers," have recently been observed around young stellar objects (YSOs) at different evolutionary stages. This asymmetric infall of material can significantly alter star and planet formation processes, especially in the more evolved YSOs. Aims. In order to ascertain the infalling nature of observed streamer-like structures and then systematically characterize their dynamics, we developed the code TIPSY (Trajectory of Infalling Particles in Streamers around Young stars). Methods. Using TIPSY, the streamer molecular line emission is first isolated from the disk emission. Then the streamer emission, which is effectively a point cloud in three-dimensional (3D) position-position-velocity space, is simplified to a curve-like representation. The observed streamer curve is then compared to the theoretical trajectories of infalling material. The best-fit trajectories are used to constrain streamer features, such as the specific energy, the specific angular momenta, the infall timescale, and the 3D morphology. Results. We used TIPSY to fit molecular-line ALMA observations of streamers around a Class II binary system, S CrA, and a Class I/II protostar, HL Tau. Our results indicate that both of the streamers are consistent with infalling motion. TIPSY results and mass estimates suggest that S CrA and HL Tau are accreting material at a rate of $\gtrsim27$ M$_{jupiter}$ Myr$^{-1}$ and $\gtrsim5$ M$_{jupiter}$ Myr$^{-1}$, respectively, which can significantly increase the mass budget available to form planets. Conclusions. TIPSY can be used to assess whether the morphology and kinematics of observed streamers are consistent with infalling motion and to characterize their dynamics, which is crucial for quantifying their impact on the protostellar systems., Comment: Accepted in Astronomy & Astrophysics

We present Atacama Large Millimeter/sub-millimeter Array (ALMA) Cycle-5 observations of HBC 494, as well as calculations of the kinematic and dynamic variables which represent the object's wide-angle bipolar outflows. HBC 494 is a binary FU Orionis type object located in the Orion A molecular cloud. We take advantage of combining the ALMA main array, Atacama Compact Array (ACA), and Total Power (TP) array in order to map HBC 494's outflows and thus, estimate their kinematic parameters with higher accuracy in comparison to prior publications. We use $^{12}$CO, $^{13}$CO, C$^{18}$O and SO observations to describe the object's outflows, envelope, and disc, as well as estimate the mass, momentum, and kinetic energy of the outflows. After correcting for optical opacity near systemic velocities, we estimate a mass of $3.0\times10^{-2}$ M$_{\odot}$ for the southern outflow and $2.8\times10^{-2}$ M$_{\odot}$ for the northern outflow. We report the first detection of a secondary outflow cavity located approximately $15$" north of the central binary system, which could be a remnant of a previous large-scale accretion outburst. Furthermore, we find CO spatial features in HBC 494's outflows corresponding to position angles of $\sim35^{\circ}$ and $\sim145^{\circ}$. This suggests that HBC 494's outflows are most likely a composite of overlapping outflows from two different sources, i.e., HBC 494a and HBC 494b, the two objects in the binary system., Comment: 26 pages, 24 figures, accepted to MNRAS

Non-parametric machine learning models, such as random forests and gradient boosted trees, are frequently used to estimate house prices due to their predictive accuracy, but a main drawback of such methods is their limited ability to quantify prediction uncertainty. Conformal prediction (CP) is a model-agnostic framework for constructing confidence sets around predictions of machine learning models with minimal assumptions. However, due to the spatial dependencies observed in house prices, direct application of CP leads to confidence sets that are not calibrated everywhere, i.e., the confidence sets will be too large in certain geographical regions and too small in others. We survey various approaches to adjust the CP confidence set to account for this and demonstrate their performance on a data set from the housing market in Oslo, Norway. Our findings indicate that calibrating the confidence sets on a spatially weighted version of the non-conformity scores makes the coverage more consistently calibrated across geographical regions. We also perform a simulation study on synthetically generated sale prices to empirically explore the performance of CP on housing market data under idealized conditions with known data-generating mechanisms.

We present ALMA observations of the Class I source Oph IRS63 in the context of the Early Planet Formation in Embedded Disks (eDisk) large program. Our ALMA observations of Oph IRS63 show a myriad of protostellar features, such as a shell-like bipolar outflow (in $^{12}$CO), an extended rotating envelope structure (in $^{13}$CO), a streamer connecting the envelope to the disk (in C$^{18}$O), and several small-scale spiral structures seen towards the edge of the dust continuum (in SO). By analyzing the velocity pattern of $^{13}$CO and C$^{18}$O, we measure a protostellar mass of $\rm M_\star = 0.5 \pm 0.2 $~$\rm M_\odot$ and confirm the presence of a disk rotating at almost Keplerian velocity that extends up to $\sim260$ au. These calculations also show that the gaseous disk is about four times larger than the dust disk, which could indicate dust evolution and radial drift. Furthermore, we model the C$^{18}$O streamer and SO spiral structures as features originating from an infalling rotating structure that continuously feeds the young protostellar disk. We compute an envelope-to-disk mass infall rate of $\sim 10^{-6}$~$\rm M_\odot \, yr^{-1}$ and compare it to the disk-to-star mass accretion rate of $\sim 10^{-8}$~$\rm M_\odot \, yr^{-1}$, from which we infer that the protostellar disk is in a mass build-up phase. At the current mass infall rate, we speculate that soon the disk will become too massive to be gravitationally stable., Comment: 26 pages and 17 figures

We present the first results from the Early Planet Formation in Embedded Disks (eDisk) ALMA Large Program toward Oph IRS43, a binary system of solar mass protostars. The 1.3 mm dust continuum observations resolve a compact disk, ~6au radius, around the northern component and show that the disk around the southern component is even smaller, <~3 au. CO, 13CO, and C18O maps reveal a large cavity in a low mass envelope that shows kinematic signatures of rotation and infall extending out to ~ 2000au. An expanding CO bubble centered on the extrapolated location of the source ~130 years ago suggests a recent outburst. Despite the small size of the disks, the overall picture is of a remarkably large and dynamically active region., Comment: Paper 10 of the ALMA eDisk Large Program. Accepted for publication in ApJ

Protostellar disks are a ubiquitous part of the star formation process and the future sites of planet formation. As part of the Early Planet Formation in Embedded Disks (eDisk) large program, we present high-angular resolution dust continuum ($\sim40\,$mas) and molecular line ($\sim150\,$mas) observations of the Class 0 protostar, IRAS 15398-3359. The dust continuum is small, compact, and centrally peaked, while more extended dust structures are found in the outflow directions. We perform a 2D Gaussian fitting to find the deconvolved size and $2\sigma$ radius of the dust disk to be $4.5\times2.8\,\mathrm{au}$ and $3.8\,\mathrm{au}$, respectively. We estimate the gas+dust disk mass assuming optically thin continuum emission to be $0.6-1.8\,M_\mathrm{jup}$, indicating a very low-mass disk. The CO isotopologues trace components of the outflows and inner envelope, while SO traces a compact, rotating disk-like component. Using several rotation curve fittings on the PV diagram of the SO emission, the lower limits of the protostellar mass and gas disk radius are $0.022\,M_\odot$ and $31.2\,\mathrm{au}$ from our Modified 2 single power-law fitting. A conservative upper limit of the protostellar mass is inferred to be $0.1\,M_\odot$. The protostellar mass-accretion rate and the specific angular momentum at the protostellar disk edge are found to be between $1.3-6.1\times10^{-6}\,M_\odot\,\mathrm{yr^{-1}}$ and $1.2-3.8\times10^{-4}\,\mathrm{km\,s^{-1}\,pc}$, respectively, with an age estimated between $0.4-7.5\times10^{4}\,$yr. At this young age with no clear substructures in the disk, planet formation would likely not yet have started. This study highlights the importance of high-resolution observations and systematic fitting procedures when deriving dynamical properties of deeply embedded Class 0 protostars., Comment: 28 pages, 16 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ as one of the first-look papers of the eDisk ALMA Large Program

When a predictive model is in production, it must be monitored in real-time to ensure that its performance does not suffer due to drift or abrupt changes to data. Ideally, this is done long before learning that the performance of the model itself has dropped by monitoring outcome data. In this paper we consider the problem of monitoring a predictive model that identifies the need for palliative care currently in production at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, MN. We introduce a framework, called \textit{Bayes Watch}, for detecting change-points in high-dimensional longitudinal data with mixed variable types and missing values and for determining in which variables the change-point occurred. Bayes Watch fits an array of Gaussian Graphical Mixture Models to groupings of homogeneous data in time, called regimes, which are modeled as the observed states of a Markov process with unknown transition probabilities. In doing so, Bayes Watch defines a posterior distribution on a vector of regime assignments, which gives meaningful expressions on the probability of every possible change-point. Bayes Watch also allows for an effective and efficient fault detection system that assesses what features in the data where the most responsible for a given change-point., Comment: 34 pages without Supplementary Material, 5 figures, 1 table

Precise estimates of protostellar masses are crucial to characterize the formation of stars of low masses down to brown-dwarfs (BDs; M* < 0.08 Msun). The most accurate estimation of protostellar mass uses the Keplerian rotation in the circumstellar disk around the protostar. To apply the Keplerian rotation method to a protostar at the low-mass end, we have observed the Class 0 protostar IRAS 16253-2429 using the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) in the 1.3 mm continuum at an angular resolution of 0.07" (10 au), and in the 12CO, C18O, 13CO (J=2-1), and SO (J_N = 6_5-5_4) molecular lines, as part of the ALMA Large Program Early Planet Formation in Embedded Disks (eDisk). The continuum emission traces a non-axisymmetric, disk-like structure perpendicular to the associated 12CO outflow. The position-velocity (PV) diagrams in the C18O and 13CO lines can be interpreted as infalling and rotating motions. In contrast, the PV diagram along the major axis of the disk-like structure in the 12CO line allows us to identify Keplerian rotation. The central stellar mass and the disk radius are estimated to be ~0.12-0.17 Msun and ~13-19 au, respectively. The SO line suggests the existence of an accretion shock at a ring (r~28 au) surrounding the disk and a streamer from the eastern side of the envelope. IRAS 16253-2429 is not a proto-BD but has a central stellar mass close to the BD mass regime, and our results provide a typical picture of such very low-mass protostars., Comment: 41 pages, 14 figures

We present high-resolution, high-sensitivity observations of the Class 0 protostar RCrA IRS5N as part of the Atacama Large Milimeter/submilimeter Array (ALMA) large program Early Planet Formation in Embedded Disks (eDisk). The 1.3 mm continuum emission reveals a flattened continuum structure around IRS5N, consistent with a protostellar disk in the early phases of evolution. The continuum emission appears smooth and shows no substructures. However, a brightness asymmetry is observed along the minor axis of the disk, suggesting the disk is optically and geometrically thick. We estimate the disk mass to be between 0.007 and 0.02 M$_{\odot}$. Furthermore, molecular emission has been detected from various species, including C$^{18}$O (2$-$1), $^{12}$CO (2$-$1), $^{13}$CO (2$-$1), and H$_2$CO (3$_{0,3}-2_{0,2}$, 3$_{2,1}-2_{2,0}$, and 3$_{2,2}-2_{2,1}$). By conducting a position-velocity analysis of the C$^{18}$O (2$-$1) emission, we find that the disk of IRS5N exhibits characteristics consistent with Keplerian rotation around a central protostar with a mass of approximately 0.3 M$_{\odot}$. Additionally, we observe dust continuum emission from the nearby binary source, IRS5a/b. The emission in $^{12}$CO toward IRS5a/b seems to emanate from IRS5b and flow into IRS5a, suggesting material transport between their mutual orbits. The lack of a detected outflow and large-scale negatives in \tlvco~observed toward IRS5N suggests that much of the flux from IRS5N is being resolved out. Due to this substantial surrounding envelope, the central IRS5N protostar is expected to be significantly more massive in the future., Comment: 25 pages, 24 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ

Motivated by the need for the development of safe and reliable methods for uncertainty quantification in machine learning, I propose and develop ideas for a model-free statistical framework for imprecise probabilistic prediction inference. This framework facilitates uncertainty quantification in the form of prediction sets that offer finite sample control of type 1 errors, a property shared with conformal prediction sets, but this new approach also offers more versatile tools for imprecise probabilistic reasoning. Furthermore, I propose and consider the theoretical and empirical properties of a precise probabilistic approximation to the model-free imprecise framework. Approximating a belief/plausibility measure pair by an [optimal in some sense] probability measure in the credal set is a critical resolution needed for the broader adoption of imprecise probabilistic approaches to inference in statistical and machine learning communities. It is largely undetermined in the statistical and machine learning literatures, more generally, how to properly quantify uncertainty in that there is no generally accepted standard of accountability of stated uncertainties. The research I present in this manuscript is aimed at motivating a framework for statistical inference with reliability and accountability as the guiding principles.

Protoplanetary disks emit radiation across a broad range of wavelengths, requiring a multiwavelength approach to fully understand their physical mechanisms and how they form planets. Observations at sub-millimeter to centimeter wavelengths can provide insights into the thermal emission from dust, free-free emission from ionized gas, and possible gyro-synchrotron emission from the stellar magnetosphere. This work is focused on CX Tau, a ${\sim}0.4\,M_\odot$ star with an extended gas emission and a compact and apparently structureless dust disk, with an average millimeter flux when compared to Class II sources in Taurus. We present observations from the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array (VLA) across four bands (between 9.0 mm and 6.0 cm) and combine them with archival data from the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA), the Submillimeter Array (SMA) and the Plateau de Bure Interferometer (PdBI). This multiwavelength approach allows us to separate the dust continuum from other emissions. After isolating the dust thermal emission, we derived an upper limit of the dust disk extent at 1.3 cm which is consistent with theoretical predictions of a radial drift-dominated disk. Centimeter data show a peculiar behavior: deep observations at 6.0 cm did not detect the source, while at 1.3 cm the flux density is anomalously higher than adjacent bands. Intraband spectral indices suggest a dominant contribution from free-free emission, whereas gyro-synchrotron emission is excluded. To explain these observations, we propose a strong variability among the free-free emission with timescales shorter than a month. Another possible interpretation is the presence of anomalous microwave emission from spinning dust grains., Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A; 13 pages, 13 figures, 1 table

We have observed the Class 0/I protostellar system Ced110 IRS4 at an angular resolution of $0.05''$ ($\sim$10 au) as a part of the ALMA large program; Early Planet Formation in the Embedded Disks (eDisk). The 1.3 mm dust continuum emission reveals that Ced110 IRS4 is a binary system with a projected separation of $\sim$250 au. The continuum emissions associated with the main source and its companion, named Ced110 IRS4A and IRS4B respectively, exhibit disk-like shapes and likely arise from dust disks around the protostars. The continuum emission of Ced110 IRS4A has a radius of $\sim$91.7 au ($\sim0.485''$), and shows bumps along its major axis with an asymmetry. The bumps can be interpreted as an shallow, ring-like structure at a radius of $\sim$40 au ($\sim0.2''$) in the continuum emission, as demonstrated from two-dimensional intensity distribution models. A rotation curve analysis on the C$^{18}$O and $^{13}$CO $J=2$-1 lines reveals the presence of a Keplerian disk within a radius of 120 au around Ced110 IRS4A, which supports the interpretation that the dust continuum emission arises from a disk. The ring-like structure in the dust continuum emission might indicate a possible, annular substructure in the surface density of the embedded disk, although the possibility that it is an apparent structure due to the optically thick continuum emission cannot be ruled out., Comment: 32 pages, 23 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ as one of the first-look papers of the eDisk ALMA Large Program

We present observations of the Class 0 protostar IRAS 16544-1604 in CB 68 from the ''Early Planet Formation in Embedded Disks (eDisk)'' ALMA Large program. The ALMA observations target continuum and lines at 1.3-mm with an angular resolution of $\sim$5 au. The continuum image reveals a dusty protostellar disk with a radius of $\sim$30 au seen close to edge-on, and asymmetric structures both along the major and minor axes. While the asymmetry along the minor axis can be interpreted as the effect of the dust flaring, the asymmetry along the major axis comes from a real non-axisymmetric structure. The C$^{18}$O image cubes clearly show the gas in the disk that follows a Keplerian rotation pattern around a $\sim$0.14 $M_{\odot}$ central protostar. Furthermore, there are $\sim$1500 au-scale streamer-like features of gas connecting from North-East, North-North-West, and North-West to the disk, as well as the bending outflow as seen in the $^{12}$CO (2-1) emission. At the apparent landing point of NE streamer, there are SO (6$_5$-5$_4$) and SiO (5-4) emission detected. The spatial and velocity structure of NE streamer can be interpreted as a free-falling gas with a conserved specific angular momentum, and the detection of the SO and SiO emission at the tip of the streamer implies presence of accretion shocks. Our eDisk observations have unveiled that the Class 0 protostar in CB 68 has a Keplerian rotating disk with flaring and non-axisymmetric structure associated with accretion streamers and outflows., Comment: 30 pages, 24 figures, accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal as one of the first-look papers of the eDisk ALMA Large Program

While dust disks around optically visible, Class II protostars are found to be vertically thin, when and how dust settles to the midplane are unclear. As part of the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) large program, Early Planet Formation in Embedded Disks, we analyze the edge-on, embedded, Class I protostar IRAS 04302+2247, also nicknamed the ``Butterfly Star." With a resolution of 0.05" (8~au), the 1.3 mm continuum shows an asymmetry along the minor axis which is evidence of an optically thick and geometrically thick disk viewed nearly edge-on. There is no evidence of rings and gaps, which could be due to the lack of radial substructure or the highly inclined and optically thick view. With 0.1" (16~au) resolution, we resolve the 2D snow surfaces, i.e., the boundary region between freeze-out and sublimation, for $^{12}$CO $J$=2--1, $^{13}$CO $J$=2--1, C$^{18}$O $J$=2--1, $H_{2}$CO $J$=$3_{0,3}$--$2_{0,2}$, and SO $J$=$6_{5}$--$5_{4}$, and constrain the CO midplane snow line to $\sim 130$ au. We find Keplerian rotation around a protostar of $1.6 \pm 0.4 M_{\odot}$ using C$^{18}$O. Through forward ray-tracing using RADMC-3D, we find that the dust scale height is $\sim 6$ au at a radius of 100~au from the central star and is comparable to the gas pressure scale height. The results suggest that the dust of this Class~I source has yet to vertically settle significantly., Comment: 33 pages, 21 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ as one of the first-look papers of the eDisk ALMA Large Program

Studying the physical and chemical conditions of young embedded disks is crucial to constrain the initial conditions for planet formation. Here, we present Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) observations of dust continuum at $\sim$0.06" (8 au) resolution and molecular line emission at $\sim$0.17" (24 au) resolution toward the Class 0 protostar L1527 IRS from the Large Program eDisk (Early Planet Formation in Embedded Disks). The continuum emission is smooth without substructures, but asymmetric along both the major and minor axes of the disk as previously observed. The detected lines of $^{12}$CO, $^{13}$CO, C$^{18}$O, H$_2$CO, c-C$_3$H$_2$, SO, SiO, and DCN trace different components of the protostellar system, with a disk wind potentially visible in $^{12}$CO. The $^{13}$CO brightness temperature and the H$_2$CO line ratio confirm that the disk is too warm for CO freeze out, with the snowline located at $\sim$350 au in the envelope. Both molecules show potential evidence of a temperature increase around the disk-envelope interface. SO seems to originate predominantly in UV-irradiated regions such as the disk surface and the outflow cavity walls rather than at the disk-envelope interface as previously suggested. Finally, the continuum asymmetry along the minor axis is consistent with the inclination derived from the large-scale (100" or 14,000 au) outflow, but opposite to that based on the molecular jet and envelope emission, suggesting a misalignment in the system. Overall, these results highlight the importance of observing multiple molecular species in multiple transitions to characterize the physical and chemical environment of young disks., Comment: 27 pages, 16 figures, 2 tables, 10 pages appendix with 12 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ as one of the first-look papers of the eDisk ALMA Large Program

Episodic accretion is a low-mass pre-main sequence phenomenon characterized by sudden outbursts of enhanced accretion. These objects are classified into two: protostars with elevated levels of accretion that lasts for decades or more, called FUors, and protostars with shorter and repetitive bursts, called EXors. HBC 494 is a FUor object embedded in the Orion Molecular Cloud. Earlier Atacama Large (sub-)Millimeter Array (ALMA) continuum observations showed an asymmetry in the disk at 0.''2 resolution. Here, we present follow-up observations at ~0.''03, resolving the system into two components: HBC 494 N (primary) and HBC 494 S (secondary). No circumbinary disk was detected. Both disks are resolved with a projected separation of ~0.''18 (75 au). Their projected dimensions are 84+/-1.8 x 66.9+/-1.5 mas for HBC 494 N and 64.6+/-2.5 x 46.0+/-1.9 mas for HBC 494 S. The disks are almost aligned and with similar inclinations. The observations show that the primary is ~5 times brighter/more massive and ~2 times bigger than the secondary. We notice that the northern component has a similar mass to the FUors, while the southern has to EXors. The HBC 494 disks show individual sizes that are smaller than single eruptive YSOs. In this work, we also report 12CO, 13CO, and C18O molecular line observations. At large scale, the 12CO emission shows bipolar outflows, while the 13CO and C18O maps show a rotating and infalling envelope around the system. At a smaller scale, the 12CO and 13CO moment zero maps show cavities within the continuum disks' area, which may indicate continuum over-subtraction or slow-moving jets and chemical destruction along the line-of-sight., Comment: Published in MNRAS. Main text (11 pages, 8 figures). Appendix (11 pages, 9 figures). Total (22 pages, 17 figures)

Fiducial inference was introduced in the first half of the 20th century by Fisher (1935) as a means to get a posterior-like distribution for a parameter without having to arbitrarily define a prior. While the method originally fell out of favor due to non-exactness issues in multivariate cases, the method has garnered renewed interest in the last decade. This is partly due to the development of generalized fiducial inference, which is a fiducial perspective on generalized confidence intervals: a method used to find approximate confidence distributions. In this chapter, we illuminate the usefulness of the fiducial philosophy, introduce the definition of a generalized fiducial distribution, and apply it to interesting, non-trivial inferential examples., Comment: 20 pages, 4 tables, 11 figures