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Preserving biodiversity under rapidly changing climate conditions is challenging. One approach for estimating impacts and their magnitude is to model current relationships between genomic and environmental data and then to forecast those relationships under future climate scenarios. In this way, understanding future genomic and environmental relationships can help guide management decisions, such as where to establish new protected areas where populations might be buffered from high temperatures or major changes in rainfall. However, climate warming is only one of many anthropogenic threats one must consider in rapidly developing parts of the world. In Central Africa, deforestation, mining, and infrastructure development are accelerating population declines of rainforest species. Here we investigate multiple anthropogenic threats in a Central African rainforest songbird, the little greenbul (Andropadus virens). We examine current climate and genomic variation in order to explore the association between genome and environment under future climate conditions. Specifically, we estimate Genomic Vulnerability, defined as the mismatch between current and predicted future genomic variation based on genotype–environment relationships modeled across contemporary populations. We do so while considering other anthropogenic impacts. We find that coastal and central Cameroon populations will require the greatest shifts in adaptive genomic variation, because both climate and land use in these areas are predicted to change dramatically. In contrast, in the more northern forest–savanna ecotones, genomic shifts required to keep pace with climate will be more moderate, and other anthropogenic impacts are expected to be comparatively low in magnitude. While an analysis of diverse taxa will be necessary for making comprehensive conservation decisions, the species‐specific results presented illustrate how evolutionary genomics and other anthropogenic threats may be mapped and used to inform mitigation efforts. To this end, we present an integrated conceptual model demonstrating how the approach for a single species can be expanded to many taxonomically diverse species.

Higher incidences of asthma during thunderstorms can pose a serious health risk. In this study, we estimate the thunderstorm asthma risk using statistical methods, with special focus on Bavaria, Southern Germany. In this approach, a dataset of asthma-related emergency cases for the study region is combined with meteorological variables and aeroallergen data to identify statistical relationships between the occurrence of asthma (predictand) and different environmental parameters (set of predictors). On the one hand, the results provide evidence for a weak but significant relationship between atmospheric stability indices and asthma emergencies in the region, but also show that currently thunderstorm asthma is not a major concern in Bavaria due to overall low incidences. As thunderstorm asthma can have severe consequences for allergic patients, the presented approach can be important for the development of emergency strategies in regions affected by thunderstorm asthma and under present and future climate change conditions.

Land–atmosphere interactions have an important influence on Amazon precipitation (P), but evaluation of these processes in climate models has so far been limited. We analysed relationships between Amazon P and evapotranspiration (ET) in the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models to evaluate controls on surface moisture fluxes and assess the credibility of regional P projections. We found that only 13 out of 38 models captured an energy limitation on Amazon ET, in agreement with observations, while 20 models instead showed Amazon ET is limited by water availability. Models that misrepresented controls on ET over the historical period projected both large increases and decreases in Amazon P by 2100, likely amplified by unrealistic land–atmosphere interactions. In contrast, large future changes in annual and seasonal-scale Amazon P were suppressed in models that simulated realistic controls on ET, due to modulating land–atmosphere interactions. By discounting projections from models that simulated unrealistic ET controls, our analysis halved uncertainty in basin-wide future P change. The ensemble mean of plausible models showed a robust drying signal over the eastern Amazon and in the dry season, and P increases in the west. Finally, we showed that factors controlling Amazon ET evolve over time in realistic models, reducing climate stability and leaving the region vulnerable to further change.

Water recycled through transpiring forests influences the spatial distribution of precipitation in the Amazon and has been shown to play a role in the initiation of the wet season. However, due to the challenges and costs associated with measuring evapotranspiration (ET) directly and high uncertainty in remote-sensing ET retrievals, the spatial and temporal patterns in Amazon ET remain poorly understood. In this study, we estimated ET over the Amazon and 10 sub-basins using a catchment-balance approach, whereby ET is calculated directly as the balance between precipitation, runoff, and change in groundwater storage. We compared our results with ET from remote-sensing datasets, reanalysis, models from Phase 5 and Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP5 and CMIP6 respectively), and in situ flux tower measurements to provide a comprehensive overview of current understanding. Catchment-balance analysis revealed a gradient in ET from east to west/southwest across the Amazon Basin, a strong seasonal cycle in basin-mean ET primarily controlled by net incoming radiation, and no trend in ET over the past 2 decades. This approach has a degree of uncertainty, due to errors in each of the terms of the water budget; therefore, we conducted an error analysis to identify the range of likely values. Satellite datasets, reanalysis, and climate models all tended to overestimate the magnitude of ET relative to catchment-balance estimates, underestimate seasonal and interannual variability, and show conflicting positive and negative trends. Only two out of six satellite and model datasets analysed reproduced spatial and seasonal variation in Amazon ET, and captured the same controls on ET as indicated by catchment-balance analysis. CMIP5 and CMIP6 ET was inconsistent with catchment-balance estimates over all scales analysed. Overall, the discrepancies between data products and models revealed by our analysis demonstrate a need for more ground-based ET measurements in the Amazon as well as a need to substantially improve model representation of this fundamental component of the Amazon hydrological cycle.

The state of ecosystems is influenced strongly by their past, and describing this carryover effect is important to accurately forecast their future behaviors. However, the strength and persistence of this carryover effect on ecosystem dynamics in comparison to that of simultaneous environmental drivers are still poorly understood. Here, we show that vegetation growth carryover (VGC), defined as the effect of present states of vegetation on subsequent growth, exerts strong positive impacts on seasonal vegetation growth over the Northern Hemisphere. In particular, this VGC of early growing-season vegetation growth is even stronger than past and co-occurring climate on determining peak-to-late season vegetation growth, and is the primary contributor to the recently observed annual greening trend. The effect of seasonal VGC persists into the subsequent year but not further. Current process-based ecosystem models greatly underestimate the VGC effect, and may therefore underestimate the CO2 sequestration potential of northern vegetation under future warming., The future of terrestrial systems is influenced by their past, but this carryover effect is rarely quantified. Here, the authors provide the first quantitative evidence that a greener spring begets a greener summer and autumn, and that this carryover effect is even stronger than climate drivers.

Vegetation growth in northern high‐latitudes during springtime is strongly temperature limited, and thus anomalously warm springs are expected to result in an increased drawdown of carbon dioxide (CO2). However, a recent analysis of the relationship between spring temperature anomalies and atmospheric CO2 anomalies at Point Barrow, Alaska, suggests that the link between spring carbon uptake by northern ecosystems and temperature anomalies has been weakening over recent decades due to a diminishing control of temperature on plant productivity. Upon further analysis, covering the 1982‐2015 period, we found no significant change in the relationship between spring vegetation productivity derived from remote sensing data and air temperature. We showed that a reduction in spatial coherence of temperature anomalies, alongside a significant sensitivity to atmospheric transport, is likely responsible for the apparent weakening. Our results, therefore, suggest that spring temperature remains as an important control of northern high‐latitude CO2 uptake.

Variability in climate exerts a strong influence on vegetation productivity (gross primary productivity; GPP), and therefore has a large impact on the land carbon sink. However, no direct observations of global GPP exist, and estimates rely on models that are constrained by observations at various spatial and temporal scales. Here, we assess the consistency in GPP from global products which extend for more than three decades; two observation‐based approaches, the upscaling of FLUXNET site observations (FLUXCOM) and a remote sensing derived light use efficiency model (RS‐LUE), and from a suite of terrestrial biosphere models (TRENDYv6). At local scales, we find high correlations in annual GPP among the products, with exceptions in tropical and high northern latitudes. On longer time scales, the products agree on the direction of trends over 58% of the land, with large increases across northern latitudes driven by warming trends. Further, tropical regions exhibit the largest interannual variability in GPP, with both rainforests and savannas contributing substantially. Variability in savanna GPP is likely predominantly driven by water availability, although temperature could play a role via soil moisture‐atmosphere feedbacks. There is, however, no consensus on the magnitude and driver of variability of tropical forests, which suggest uncertainties in process representations and underlying observations remain. These results emphasize the need for more direct long‐term observations of GPP along with an extension of in situ networks in underrepresented regions (e.g., tropical forests). Such capabilities would support efforts to better validate relevant processes in models, to more accurately estimate GPP., Key Points Changes in climate over the period 1982–2016 have increased GPP at a global scale and across northern latitudesSavannas and tropical forests are hotspots for IAV in GPP, although the dominant climate drivers are not consistent among the assessed productsDGVMs systematically underestimate the IAV of GPP in tropical forests, highlighting the need for improved parameterizations/formulations

Water recycled through transpiring forests influences the spatial distribution of precipitation in the Amazon and has been shown to play a role in the initiation of the wet season. However, due to the challenges and costs associated with measuring evapotranspiration (ET) directly, plus the high uncertainty and discrepancies across remote-sensing retrievals of ET, spatial and temporal patterns in this key component of the Amazon hydrological cycle remain poorly understood. In this study, we estimated ET over the Amazon and ten sub-basins using a catchment-balance approach, whereby ET is calculated directly as the balance between precipitation, runoff and change in groundwater storage. We compared our results with ET from remote-sensing datasets, reanalysis, models from the fifth and sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP5 and CMIP6), and in-situ flux-tower measurements, to provide a comprehensive overview of current understanding. Catchment-balance analysis revealed a gradient in ET from east to west/southwest across the Amazon basin, a strong seasonal cycle in basin-mean ET controlled by net incoming radiation, and no trend in ET over the past two decades. Satellite datasets, reanalysis and climate models all tended to overestimate the magnitude of ET relative to catchment-balance estimates, underestimate seasonal and interannual variability, and show conflicting positive and negative trends. Only two out of six satellite and model datasets analysed reproduced spatial and seasonal variation in Amazon ET, and captured the same controls on ET as indicated by catchment-balance analysis. CMIP5 and CMIP6 ET was inconsistent with catchment-balance estimates over all scales analysed. Overall, the discrepancies between data products and models revealed by our analysis demonstrate a need for more ground-based ET measurements in the Amazon, and to substantially improve model representation of this fundamental component of the Amazon hydrological cycle.

Tropical disturbed forests play an important role in global carbon sequestration due to their rapid post-disturbance biomass accumulation rates. However, the accurate estimation of the carbon sequestration capacity of disturbed forests is still challenging due to large uncertainties in their spatial distribution. Using Google Earth Engine (GEE), we developed a novel approach to map cumulative disturbed forest areas based on the 27-year time-series of Landsat surface reflectance imagery. This approach integrates single date features with temporal characteristics from six time-series trajectories (two Landsat shortwave infrared bands and four vegetation indices) using a random forest machine learning classification algorithm. We demonstrated the feasibility of this method to map disturbed forests in three different forest ecoregions (seasonal, moist and dry forest) in Mato Grosso, Brazil, and found that the overall mapping accuracy was high, ranging from 81.3% for moist forest to 86.1% for seasonal forest. According to our classification, dry forest ecoregion experienced the most severe disturbances with 41% of forests being disturbed by 2010, followed by seasonal forest and moist forest ecoregions. We further separated disturbed forests into degraded old-growth forests and post-deforestation regrowth forests based on an existing post-deforestation land use map (TerraClass) and found that the area of degraded old-growth forests was up to 62% larger than the extent of post-deforestation regrowth forests, with 18% of old-growth forests actually being degraded. Application of this new classification approach to other tropical areas will provide a better constraint on the spatial extent of disturbed forest areas in Tropics and ultimately towards a better understanding of their importance in the global carbon cycle.

Land vegetation growth in the northern high latitudes (north of 50˚N) is strongly temperature limited, thus anomalously warm years are expected to result in an increased drawdown of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and vice versa. Piao et al (2017) concluded in an analysis of climate and CO2 data from Point Barrow, Alaska that there was a weakening response of northern high latitude spring carbon uptake to temperature anomalies over the last 40 years. They proposed that this is due to a weakening control of temperature on productivity. We have analysed northern high latitude climate and remote sensing vegetation indices, as well as atmospheric CO2 data at Point Barrow, with atmospheric transport analyses of the footprint seen at Barrow. Our results show no large-scale significant change in the spring NDVI-temperature relationship inside the footprint of Barrow, and across the high northern latitudes as a whole. This casts doubt on the assertion that the changing relationship between CO2 uptake and temperature is driven by a change in vegetation response to temperature. We thus tested several alternative mechanisms that could explain the apparent weakening, including a change in interannual variability of atmospheric transport (i.e. the footprint seen by Barrow) and the spatial agreement of temperature anomalies. We find that the heterogeneity of temperature anomalies increased over time, whereas there is no significant change in interannual variation in the footprint seen by Barrow. These results offer an additional explanation for the apparent decrease in spring temperature sensitivity of northern high latitude CO2 uptake.

Climate change is shifting the phenological cycles of plants1, thereby altering the functioning of ecosystems, which in turn induces feedbacks to the climate system2. In northern (north of 30° N) ecosystems, warmer springs lead generally to an earlier onset of the growing season3,4 and increased ecosystem productivity early in the season5. In situ6 and regional7–9 studies also provide evidence for lagged effects of spring warmth on plant productivity during the subsequent summer and autumn. However, our current understanding of these lagged effects, including their direction (beneficial or adverse) and geographic distribution, is still very limited. Here we analyse satellite, field-based and modelled data for the period 1982–2011 and show that there are widespread and contrasting lagged productivity responses to spring warmth across northern ecosystems. On the basis of the observational data, we find that roughly 15 per cent of the total study area of about 41 million square kilometres exhibits adverse lagged effects and that roughly 5 per cent of the total study area exhibits beneficial lagged effects. By contrast, current-generation terrestrial carbon-cycle models predict much lower areal fractions of adverse lagged effects (ranging from 1 to 14 per cent) and much higher areal fractions of beneficial lagged effects (ranging from 9 to 54 per cent). We find that elevation and seasonal precipitation patterns largely dictate the geographic pattern and direction of the lagged effects. Inadequate consideration in current models of the effects of the seasonal build-up of water stress on seasonal vegetation growth may therefore be able to explain the differences that we found between our observation-constrained estimates and the model-constrained estimates of lagged effects associated with spring warming. Overall, our results suggest that for many northern ecosystems the benefits of warmer springs on growing-season ecosystem productivity are effectively compensated for by the accumulation of seasonal water deficits, despite the fact that northern ecosystems are thought to be largely temperature- and radiation-limited10.

International audience; Changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 (SCA) in the northern hemisphere is an emerging carbon cycle property. Mauna Loa (MLO) station (20°N, 156°W), which has the longest continuous northern hemisphere CO2 record, shows an increasing SCA before the 1980s (p

Extra water loss from earlier spring greening dries soils locally in summer, but can moisten soils in areas downwind., Earlier vegetation greening under climate change raises evapotranspiration and thus lowers spring soil moisture, yet the extent and magnitude of this water deficit persistence into the following summer remain elusive. We provide observational evidence that increased foliage cover over the Northern Hemisphere, during 1982–2011, triggers an additional soil moisture deficit that is further carried over into summer. Climate model simulations independently support this and attribute the driving process to be larger increases in evapotranspiration than in precipitation. This extra soil drying is projected to amplify the frequency and intensity of summer heatwaves. Most feedbacks operate locally, except for a notable teleconnection where extra moisture transpired over Europe is transported to central Siberia. Model results illustrate that this teleconnection offsets Siberian soil moisture losses from local spring greening. Our results highlight that climate change adaptation planning must account for the extra summer water and heatwave stress inherited from warming-induced earlier greening.

Changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO

We analyzed seasonal and spatial variations of evapotranspiration (ET) for five Amazon sub-basins and their response to the 2015/16 El Nino episode using a recently developed water-budget approach. ET varied typically between similar to 7 and 10 cm/month with exception of the Xingu basin for which it varied between 10 and 15 cm/month. Outstanding features of ET seasonality are (i) generally weak seasonality, (ii) two ET peaks for the two very wet catchments Solimoes and Negro, with one occurring during the wet season and one during the drier season, and (iii) a steady increase of ET during the second half of the dry season for the three drier catchments (Madeira, Tapajos, Xingu). Peak ET occurs during the first half of the wet season consistent with leaf flush occurring before the onset of the wet season. With regards to inter-annual variation, we found firstly that for the Solimoes and Madeira catchments the period with large positive wet season anomalies (2012-2015) is associated with negative ET anomalies, and negative SIF (solar induced fluorescence) anomalies. Furthermore, we found negative ET of several cm/months and SIF (up to 50%) anomalies for most of the Amazon basin during the 2015/16 El Nino event suggesting down-regulation of productivity as a main factor of positive carbon flux anomalies during anomalously hot and dry conditions. These results are of interest in view of predicted warmer and more erratic future climate conditions.

The world's ocean and land ecosystems act as sinks for anthropogenic CO2, and over the last half century their combined sink strength grew steadily with increasing CO2 emissions. Recent analyses of the global carbon budget, however, have uncovered an abrupt, substantial ( ∼ 1 PgC yr−1) and sustained increase in the land sink in the late 1980s whose origin remains unclear. In the absence of this prominent shift in the land sink, increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations since the late 1980s would have been ∼ 30 % larger than observed (or ∼ 12 ppm above current levels). Global data analyses are limited in regards to attributing causes to changes in the land sink because different regions are likely responding to different drivers. Here, we address this challenge by using terrestrial biosphere models constrained by observations to determine if there is independent evidence for the abrupt strengthening of the land sink. We find that net primary production significantly increased in the late 1980s (more so than heterotrophic respiration), consistent with the inferred increase in the global land sink, and that large-scale climate anomalies are responsible for this shift. We identify two key regions in which climatic constraints on plant growth have eased: northern Eurasia experienced warming, and northern Africa received increased precipitation. Whether these changes in continental climates are connected is uncertain, but North Atlantic climate variability is important. Our findings suggest that improved understanding of climate variability in the North Atlantic may be essential for more credible projections of the land sink under climate change.

Interannual variability (IAV) in ecosystem productivity may reveal vulnerabilities of vegetation to climate stressors. We analyzed IAV of northern hemisphere ecosystems using several remote sensing datasets, including longstanding observations of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and more novel metrics for productivity including solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and the near-infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIRv). Although previous studies have suggested SIF better tracks variations in ecosystem productivity at seasonal timescales, we found that satellite datasets (including SIF) and eddy covariance flux tower observations were subject to significant uncertainty when assessing IAV at fine spatial scales. Even when observations were aggregated regionally, IAV in productivity estimated by the various satellite products were not always well correlated. In response to these inconsistencies, we applied a statistical method on regionally aggregated productivity data in four selected North American ecoregions and identified two dominant modes of IAV—seasonal redistribution and amplification—that were consistent across satellite datasets. The seasonal redistribution mode, which played a stronger role at lower latitudes, associated high (low) spring productivity with warm (cold) spring and summer temperatures, but also with lower (higher) productivity and water availability in summer and fall, indicating that enhanced growth in spring may contribute to an earlier depletion of water resources. The amplification mode associated an increase (decrease) in productivity across the growing season with above-average (below-average) summer moisture conditions. Even though our statistical analysis at large spatial scales revealed meaningful links between terrestrial productivity and climate drivers, our analysis does suggest that IAV and long-term trends in presently available novel and more established satellite observations must be interpreted cautiously, with careful attention to the spatial scales at which a robust signal emerges.

The terrestrial carbon sink has increased since the turn of this century at a time of increased fossil fuel burning, yet the mechanisms enhancing this sink are not fully understood. Here we assess the hypothesis that regional increases in nitrogen deposition since the early 2000s has alleviated nitrogen limitation and worked in tandem with enhanced CO2 fertilization to increase ecosystem productivity and carbon sequestration, providing a causal link between the parallel increases in emissions and the global land carbon sink. We use the Community Land Model (CLM4.5‐BGC) to estimate the influence of changes in atmospheric CO2, nitrogen deposition, climate, and their interactions to changes in net primary production and net biome production. We focus on two periods, 1901–2016 and 1990–2016, to estimate changes in land carbon fluxes relative to historical and contemporary baselines, respectively. We find that over the historical period, nitrogen deposition (14%) and carbon‐nitrogen synergy (14%) were significant contributors to the current terrestrial carbon sink, suggesting that long‐term increases in nitrogen deposition led to a substantial increase in CO2 fertilization. However, relative to the contemporary baseline, changes in nitrogen deposition and carbon‐nitrogen synergy had no substantial contribution to the 21st century increase in global carbon uptake. Nonetheless, we find that increased nitrogen deposition in East Asia since the early 1990s contributed 50% to the overall increase in net biome production over this region, highlighting the importance of carbon‐nitrogen interactions. Therefore, potential large‐scale changes in nitrogen deposition could have a significant impact on terrestrial carbon cycling and future climate., Key Points Increased CO2 concentrations and nitrogen deposition combined synergistically to increase the land carbon sink over the 20th centuryCarbon‐nitrogen synergies do not appear responsible for the increase in land carbon sink since the beginning of the 21st century

The outstanding tropical land climate characteristic over the past decades is rapid warming, with no significant large-scale precipitation trends. This warming is expected to continue but the effects on tropical vegetation are unknown. El Niño-related heat peaks may provide a test bed for a future hotter world. Here we analyse tropical land carbon cycle responses to the 2015/16 El Niño heat and drought anomalies using an atmospheric transport inversion. Based on the global atmospheric CO 2 and fossil fuel emission records, we find no obvious signs of anomalously large carbon release compared with earlier El Niño events, suggesting resilience of tropical vegetation. We find roughly equal net carbon release anomalies from Amazonia and tropical Africa, approximately 0.5 PgC each, and smaller carbon release anomalies from tropical East Asia and southern Africa. Atmospheric CO anomalies reveal substantial fire carbon release from tropical East Asia peaking in October 2015 while fires contribute only a minor amount to the Amazonian carbon flux anomaly. Anomalously large Amazonian carbon flux release is consistent with downregulation of primary productivity during peak negative near-surface water anomaly (October 2015 to March 2016) as diagnosed by solar-induced fluorescence. Finally, we find an unexpected anomalous positive flux to the atmosphere from tropical Africa early in 2016, coincident with substantial CO release. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications’.

Fitzpatricket al. discuss issues that they had with analyses and interpretation in our recent manuscript on genomic correlates of climate in yellow warblers. We provide evidence that our findings would not change with different analysis and maintain that our study represents a promising direction for integrating the potential for climate adaptation as one of many tools in conservation management.

Climate change is shifting the phenological cycles of plants

Historic rates of habitat change and growing exploitation of natural resources threaten avian biodiversity in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, a global biodiversity hotspot. We implemented a twostage framework for conservation planning in the Atlantic Forest. First, we used ecological niche modeling to predict the distributions of 23 endemic bird species using 19 climatic metrics and 12 spectral and radar remote sensing metrics. Second, we utilized the principle of complementarity to prioritize new sites to augment the Atlantic Forest's existing reserves. The best predictors of bird distributions were precipitation metrics (the seasonality of rainfall) and radar remote sensing metrics (QSCAT). The existing protected areas do not include 10% of the habitat of each of the 23 endemic species. We propose a more economical set of protected areas by reducing the extent to which new sites duplicate the biodiversity content of existing protected areas. There is a high concordance between the proposed conservation areas that we designed using computerized algorithms and Important Bird Areas prioritized by BirdLife International. Insofar as deforestation in the Atlantic Forest is similar to land conversion in other biodiversity hotspots, our methodology is applicable to conservation efforts elsewhere in the world.

In snow-dominated northern ecosystems, spring warming is predicted to decrease water availability later in the season and recent findings suggest that corresponding negative impacts on plant productivity and wildfire frequency are already observable. Here we estimate the overall vulnerability of North American ecosystems to warming-related seasonal shifts in hydrology through identifying robust interannual linkages between nonfrozen periods, peak-to-late summer vegetation greenness, and an indicator of drought for 1982–2010. Our results show that longer nonfrozen periods earlier in the year are persistently associated with declines in peak-to-late summer greenness and moisture availability across large portions of North America. Hereby, vulnerabilities increase markedly across the dominant land covers with decreasing annual precipitation rates, lowering contributions of summer rainfall, and increasing altitude. The implications are that in a warmer world, seasonal hydrological shifts may emerge as a leading factor for summer drought in relatively dry temperate-forested ecosystems and across the northern high latitudes.

Terrestrial ecosystems in the northern high latitudes are currently experiencing drastic warming, and recent studies suggest that boreal forests may be increasingly vulnerable to warming-related factors, including temperature-induced drought stress as well as shifts in fire regimes and insect outbreaks. Here we analyze interannual relationships in boreal forest greening and climate over the last three decades using newly available satellite vegetation data. Our results suggest that due to continued summer warming in the absence of sustained increases in precipitation, a turning point has been reached around the mid-1990s that shifted western central Eurasian boreal forests into a warmer and drier regime. This may be the leading cause for the emergence of large-scale negative correlations between summer temperatures and forest greenness. If such a regime shift would be sustained, the dieback of the boreal forest induced by heat and drought stress as predicted by vegetation models may proceed more rapidly than anticipated.

Geographic isolation in rainforest refugia and local adaptation to ecological gradients may both be important drivers of evolutionary diversification. However, their relative importance and the underlying mechanisms of these processes remain poorly understood because few empirical studies address both putative processes in a single system. A key question is to what extent is divergence in signals that are important in mate and species recognition driven by isolation in rainforest refugia or by divergent selection across ecological gradients? We studied the little greenbul, Andropadus virens, an African songbird, in Cameroon and Uganda, to determine whether refugial isolation or ecological gradients better explain existing song variation. We then tested whether song variation attributable to refugial or ecological divergence was biologically meaningful using reciprocal playback experiments to territorial males. We found that much of the existing song variation can be explained by both geographic isolation and ecological gradients, but that divergence across the gradient, and not geographic isolation, affects male response levels. These data suggest that ecologically divergent traits, independent of historical isolation during glacial cycles, can promote reproductive isolation. Our study provides further support for the importance of ecology in explaining patterns of evolutionary diversification in ecologically diverse regions of the planet.

In the debate over modes of vertebrate diversification in tropical rainforests, two competing hypotheses of speciation predominate: those that emphasize the role of geographical isolation during glacial periods and those that stress the role of ecology and diversifying selection across ecotones or environmental gradients. To investigate the relative roles of selection versus isolation in refugia, we contrasted genetic and morphologic divergence of the olive sunbird (Cyanomitra olivacea) at 18 sites (approximately 200 individuals) across the forest-savanna ecotone of Central Africa in a region considered to have harboured three hypothesized refugia during glacial periods. Habitats were characterized using bioclimatic and satellite remote-sensing data. We found relatively high levels of gene flow between ecotone and forest populations and between refugia. Consistent with a pattern of divergence-with-gene-flow, we found morphological characters to be significantly divergent across the gradient [forest versus ecotone (mean ± SD): wing length 60.47 ± 1.81 mm versus 62.18 ± 1.35 mm; tarsus length 15.51 ± 0.82 mm versus 16.00 ± 0.57 mm; upper mandible length 21.77 ± 1.09 mm versus 23.19 ± 0.98 mm, respectively]. Within-habitat comparisons across forest and ecotone sites showed no significant differences in morphology. The results show that divergence in morphological traits is tied to environmental variables across the gradient and is occurring despite gene flow. The pattern of divergence-with-gene-flow found is similar to that described for other rainforest species across the gradient. These results suggest that neither refugia, nor isolation-by-distance have played a major role in divergence in the olive sunbird, although ecological differences along the forest and savanna ecotone may impose significant selection pressures on the phenotype and potentially be important in diversification.

Developing countries are required to produce robust estimates of forest carbon stocks for successful implementation of climate change mitigation policies related to reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD). Here we present a “benchmark” map of biomass carbon stocks over 2.5 billion ha of forests on three continents, encompassing all tropical forests, for the early 2000s, which will be invaluable for REDD assessments at both project and national scales. We mapped the total carbon stock in live biomass (above- and belowground), using a combination of data from 4,079 in situ inventory plots and satellite light detection and ranging (Lidar) samples of forest structure to estimate carbon storage, plus optical and microwave imagery (1-km resolution) to extrapolate over the landscape. The total biomass carbon stock of forests in the study region is estimated to be 247 Gt C, with 193 Gt C stored aboveground and 54 Gt C stored belowground in roots. Forests in Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia accounted for 49%, 25%, and 26% of the total stock, respectively. By analyzing the errors propagated through the estimation process, uncertainty at the pixel level (100 ha) ranged from ±6% to ±53%, but was constrained at the typical project (10,000 ha) and national (>1,000,000 ha) scales at ca . ±5% and ca . ±1%, respectively. The benchmark map illustrates regional patterns and provides methodologically comparable estimates of carbon stocks for 75 developing countries where previous assessments were either poor or incomplete.

Human-induced land use changes are causing extensive habitat fragmentation. As a result, many species are not able to shift their ranges in response to climate change and will likely need to adapt in situ to changing climate conditions. Consequently, a prudent strategy to maintain the ability of populations to adapt is to focus conservation efforts on areas where levels of intraspecific variation are high. By doing so, the potential for an evolutionary response to environmental change is maximized. Here, we use modeling approaches in conjunction with environmental variables to model species distributions and patterns of genetic and morphological variation in seven Ecuadorian amphibian, bird, and mammal species. We then used reserve selection software to prioritize areas for conservation based on intraspecific variation or species-level diversity. Reserves selected using species richness and complementarity showed little overlap with those based on genetic and morphological variation. Priority areas for intraspecific variation were mainly located along the slopes of the Andes and were largely concordant among species, but were not well represented in existing reserves. Our results imply that in order to maximize representation of intraspecific variation in reserves, genetic and morphological variation should be included in conservation prioritization.

Our aim was to evaluate the extent to which we can predict and map tree alpha diversity across broad spatial scales either by using climate and remote sensing data or by exploiting spatial autocorrelation patterns in tropical rain forest, West Africa and Atlantic Central Africa.

The hovering flight of hummingbirds is one of the most energetically demanding forms of animal locomotion and is influenced by both atmospheric oxygen availability and air density. Montane Neotropical hummingbirds are expected to shift altitudinally upwards in response to climate change to track their ancestral climatic regime, which is predicted to influence their flight performance. In this study, we use the climate envelope approach to estimate upward elevational shifts for five Andean hummingbird species under two climate change scenarios. We then use field-based data on hummingbird flight mechanics to estimate the resulting impact of climate change on aerodynamic performance in hovering flight. Our results show that in addition to significant habitat loss and fragmentation, projected upwards elevational shifts vary between 300 and 700 m, depending on climate change scenario and original mean elevation of the target species. Biomechanical analysis indicates that such upwards elevational shifts would yield a � 2–51 increase in wing stroke amplitude with no substantial effect on wingbeat frequency. Overall, the physiological impact of elevational shifts of o1000 m in response to climate change is likely to be small relative to other factors such as habitat loss, changes in floristic composition, and increased interspecific competition.

Studies of rainforest diversification that simultaneously consider the effects of genetic drift and natural selection are rare. We use Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism genome scans of the African rainforest lizard Trachylepis affinis from Cameroon to examine the spatial patterns and environmental associations of both neutrally evolving loci and those thought to be under selection. Bayesian selection scans revealed that approximately 7% of the genome may be under divergent selection. Using non-linear environmental modelling techniques, we fit patterns of genetic differentiation recovered from the pooled neutral data and from individual loci showing a signature of natural selection. Neutral differentiation occurred along a cline from coastal lowland rainforest inland toward the gallery forests-savanna mosaic (ecotone), and was associated with both geographic distance and changing precipitation patterns. Loci under selection were differentiated predominantly along the forest-ecotone gradient-in concordance with morphological divergence in traits related to fitness. A second set of these loci was differentiated between lowland and montane habitats. A third set of loci was indicative of divergent selection between rainforest refugia. Niche models and demographic signals in mitochondrial sequence data support a population expansion out of a core rainforest area into savanna since the last glacial maximum. Our findings indicate adaptive diversification in T. affinis may be taking place along the forest-ecotone gradient during range expansions or contractions, and that refugial isolation augmented by divergent adaptation to different rainforest environments appears to play a less significant role.

To better understand how environment shapes phenotypic and genetic variation, we explore the relationship between environmental variables across Ecuador and genetic and morphological variation in the wedge-billed woodcreeper (Glyphorynchus spirurus), a common Neotropical rainforest bird species. Generalized dissimilarity models show that variation in amplified fragment length polymorphism markers was strongly associated with environmental variables on both sides of the Andes, but could also partially be explained by geographic distance on the western side of the Andes. Tarsus, wing, tail, and bill lengths and bill depth were well explained by environmental variables on the western side of the Andes, whereas only tarsus length was well explained on the eastern side. Regions that comprise the highest rates of genetic and phenotypic change occur along steep elevation gradients in the Andes. Such environmental gradients are likely to be particularly important for maximizing adaptive diversity to minimize the impacts of climate change. Using a framework for conservation prioritization based on preserving ecological and evolutionary processes, we found little overlap between currently protected areas in Ecuador and regions we predicted to be important in maximizing adaptive variation.

Habitat fragmentation and deforestation are thought to disrupt host–parasite interactions and increase the risk of epizootic outbreaks in wild vertebrates. A total of 220 individuals from three species of African rain-forest bird (Andropadus latirostris, Andropadus virens, Cyanomitra obscura), captured in two pristine and two agroforests in Cameroon, were screened for the presence of avian haemosporidian parasites (species of Plasmodium and Haemoproteus) to test whether habitat differences were associated with differences in the prevalence of infectious diseases in natural populations. Thirteen mitochondrial lineages, including 11 Plasmodium and two Haemoproteus lineages were identified. Whereas levels of Haemoproteus spp. infections were too low to permit analysis, the prevalence of infections with Plasmodium spp. reached significantly greater levels in undisturbed mature forests. Importantly however, the significant association between forest type and parasite prevalence was independent of host density effects, suggesting that the association did not reflect changes in host species composition and abundance between forest types. Our results illustrate how characterizing land-cover differences, and hence changes, may be a prerequisite to understanding and predicting patterns of parasite infections in natural populations of rain-forest birds.

Landscape genetics is an emerging discipline that utilizes environmental and historical data to understand geographic patterns of genetic diversity. Niche modelling has added a new dimension to such efforts by allowing species-environmental associations to be projected into the past so that hypotheses about historical vicariance can be generated and tested independently with genetic data. However, previous approaches have primarily utilized DNA sequence data to test inferences about historical isolation and may have missed very recent episodes of environmentally mediated divergence. We type 15 microsatellite loci in California mule deer and identify five genetic groupings through a Structure analysis that are also well predicted by environmental data. We project the niches of these five deer ecotypes to the last glacial maximum (LGM) and show they overlap to a much greater extent than today, suggesting that vicariance associated with the LGM cannot explain the present-day genetic patterns. Further, we analyse mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequence trees to search for evidence of historical vicariance and find only two well-supported clades. A coalescence-based analysis of mtDNA data shows that the genetic divergence of the mule deer genetic clusters in California is recent and appears to be mediated by ecological factors. The importance of environmental factors in explaining the genetic diversity of California mule deer is unexpected given that they are highly mobile species and have a broad habitat distribution. Geographic differences in the timing of reproduction and peak vegetation as well as habitat choice reflecting natal origin may explain the persistence of genetic subdivision.

We used a species-distribution modeling approach, ground-based climate data sets, and newly available remote-sensing data on vegetation from the MODIS and Quick Scatterometer sensors to investigate the combined effects of human-caused habitat alterations and climate on potential invasions of rainfor- est by 3 savanna snake species in Cameroon, Central Africa: the night adder (Causus maculatus), olympic lined snake (Dromophis lineatus), and African house snake (Lamprophis fuliginosus). Models with contem- porary climate variables and localities from native savanna habitats showed that the current climate in undisturbed rainforest was unsuitable for any of the snake species due to high precipitation. Limited avail- ability of thermally suitable nest sites and mismatches between important life-history events and prey availability are a likely explanation for the predicted exclusion from undisturbed rainforest. Models with only MODIS-derived vegetation variables and savanna localities predicted invasion in disturbed areas within the rainforest zone, which suggests that human removal of forest cover creates suitable microhabitats that facilitate invasions into rainforest. Models with a combination of contemporary climate, MODIS- and Quick Scatterometer-derived vegetation variables, and forest and savanna localities predicted extensive invasion into rainforest caused by rainforest loss. In contrast, a projection of the present-day species-climate envelope on future climate suggested a reduction in invasion potential within the rainforest zone as a consequence of predicted increases in precipitation. These results emphasize that the combined responses of deforestation and climate change will likely be complex in tropical rainforest systems.

During the last decades, snow-dominated Northern American (NA) ecosystems have experienced prolonged spring warming and earlier spring onsets. Recent studies showed that these changes have adverse effects on plant productivity due to water stress. In this study, we analyze relationships between longer non-frozen period, peak summer vegetation greenness index and a drought index by using the three decades of optical satellite data, microwave Freeze-Thaw record and climatic data. Results show that longer non-frozen period caused decline in summer soil moisture availability. This suggests a mechanism of ‘longer non-frozen period-summer drought’ which has led to widespread decline in peak summer vegetation greenness across large portions of NA’s mid- and high-latitude ecosystems. This mechanism may be exacerbated in the future under accelerated spring warming and associated longer growing season, and depending on the future precipitation pattern generally larger degrees of dryness during the peak of the northern growing seasons can be expected.

The global terrestrial carbon sink has increased since the start of this century at a time of growing carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning. Here we test the hypothesis that increases in atmospheric aerosols from fossil fuel burning enhanced the diffuse light fraction and the efficiency of plant carbon uptake. Using a combination of models, we estimate that at global scale changes in light regimes from fossil fuel aerosol emissions had only a small negative effect on the increase in terrestrial net primary production over the period 1998–2010. Hereby, the substantial increases in fossil fuel aerosol emissions and plant carbon uptake over East Asia were effectively canceled by opposing trends across Europe and North America. This suggests that if the recent increase in the land carbon sink would be causally linked to fossil fuel emissions, it is unlikely via the effect of aerosols but due to other factors such as nitrogen deposition or nitrogen‐carbon interactions., Key Points Increase in FF aerosol emission over East Asia contributes substantially to regional increase in plant carbon uptakeThe global impact is small since increases in FF aerosols and NPP in East Asia were canceled by opposing trends in Europe and North AmericaThus, the increase in FF aerosols over East Asia may not act as a mechanism that would explain coincident increase in land carbon sink

An increase in photosynthetic activity of the northern hemisphere terrestrial vegetation, as derived from satellite observations, has been reported in previous studies. The amplitude of the seasonal cycle of the annually detrended atmospheric CO 2 in the northern hemisphere (an indicator of biospheric activity) also increased during that period. We found, by analyzing the annually detrended CO 2 record by season, that early summer (June) CO 2 concentrations indeed decreased from 1985 to 1991, and they have continued to decrease from 1994 up to 2002. This decrease indicates accelerating springtime net CO 2 uptake. However, the CO 2 minimum concentration in late summer (an indicator of net growing-season uptake) showed no positive trend since 1994, indicating that lower net CO 2 uptake during summer cancelled out the enhanced uptake during spring. Using a recent satellite normalized difference vegetation index data set and climate data, we show that this lower summer uptake is probably the result of hotter and drier summers in both mid and high latitudes, demonstrating that a warming climate does not necessarily lead to higher CO 2 growing-season uptake, even in high-latitude ecosystems that are considered to be temperature limited.