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Background and Aims: Over the last few decades, many plant species have shown changes in phenology, such as the date on which they germinate, bud or flower. However, some species are changing slower than others, potentially due to daylength (photoperiod) requirements., Methods: We combined data on flowering time advancement with published records of photoperiod sensitivity to try to predict which species are advancing their flowering time. Data availability limited us to the Northern Hemisphere., Key Results: Cross-species analyses showed that short day plants advanced their flowering time by 1.4 days per decade, day neutral plants advanced by 0.9 days per decade, but long day plants delayed their flowering by 0.2 days per decade. However, photoperiod sensitivity status was moderately phylogenetically conserved, and the differences in flowering time advancement were not significant after phylogeny was accounted for. Both annual and perennial herbs were more likely to have long day photoperiod cues than woody species, which were instead more likely to have short day photoperiod cues., Conclusions: Short day plants are keeping up with plants that do not have photoperiod requirements, suggesting that daylength requirements do not hinder changes in phenology. However, long day plants are not changing their phenology and may risk falling behind as competitors and pollinators adapt to climate change., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.)

Background: Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention (SMC) is a highly effective intervention for preventing malaria, particularly in areas with highly seasonal transmission. Monitoring and evaluating (M&E) SMC programmes are complex due to the scale, time-sensitive delivery of the programme, and influence of external factors. This paper describes the process followed to develop a comprehensive M&E framework tailored specifically for the SMC context., Methods: The Framework was developed through a literature and programme review, and stakeholder dialogues across three implementing countries-Burkina Faso, Chad, and Nigeria. Expert consultation further refined the Framework through an iterative approach drawing upon data collected through the three sources. The Framework was designed using the Logical Framework Approach incorporating external factors and intentionally aligned with global malaria M&E standards., Results: An overall aim and seven programme objectives were developed measured by 70 indicators. The indicators also capture the causal links between the implementation and results of the programme. The Framework leverages the use of current data sources and existing mechanisms, ensuring efficient data use without requiring a significant increase in resources for overall programme optimization. It also promotes the use of data triangulation, and stratification for a more nuanced understanding of factors affecting programme performance and timely data informed decision-making., Conclusions: The SMC M&E Framework presented here provides a standardized approach for programme implementers to enhance decision-making for optimal programme performance. This is an essential tool as the scope of SMC programmes expands to new geographies and target age groups., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Introduction. Red squirrel populations have declined in the UK since the introduction of the grey squirrel, due to resource competition and grey squirrels carrying a squirrelpox virus that is fatal to red squirrels. Hypothesis/Gap Statement. It is not known if the gut microbiota of the two species is similar and if this could impact the survival of red squirrels. Aim. The aim of this study was to profile the caecal microbiota of red and grey squirrels obtained opportunistically from a conservation programme in North Wales. Methodology. Bacterial DNA was extracted from ten red and ten grey squirrels and sent for 16S rRNA sequencing. Three samples from red squirrels returned less than 5000 reads, and so were not carried forward for further analyses. Results. Samples taken from the caeca of red squirrels had significantly lower bacterial diversity and a higher percentage of Bacilli bacteria when compared to samples from grey squirrels. When the abundance of bacterial groups across all levels of phylogenetic classifications was compared between the two groups of squirrels, grey squirrels had a higher abundance of bacteria belonging to the families S24-7, RF39 and Rikenellaceae. Escherichia coli with resistance to amoxicillin/clavulanic acid was identified in all samples. Cefotaxime resistance was identified in two samples from grey squirrels along with sulfamethoxazole/trimethoprim in one of these samples. Conclusion. Clear differences between the caecal microbiota of the two species of squirrel were identified, which could potentially impact their overall health and ability to compete for resources.

Large, citizen-science species databases are powerful resources for predictive species distribution modeling (SDM), yet they are often subject to sampling bias. Many methods have been proposed to correct for this, but there exists little consensus as to which is most effective, not least because the true value of model predictions is hard to evaluate without extensive independent field sampling. We present here a nationwide, independent field validation of distribution models of ancient and veteran trees, a group of organisms of high conservation importance, built using a large and internationally unique citizen-science database: the Ancient Tree Inventory (ATI). This validation exercise presents an opportunity to test the performance of different methods of correcting for sampling bias, in the search for the best possible prediction of ancient and veteran tree distributions in England. We fitted a variety of distribution models of ancient and veteran tree records in England in relation to environmental predictors and applied different bias correction methods, including spatial filtering, background manipulation, the use of bias files, and, finally, zero-inflated (ZI) regression models, a new method with great potential to investigate and remove sampling bias in species data. We then collected new independent field data through systematic surveys of 52 randomly selected 1-km 2 grid squares across England to obtain abundance estimates of ancient and veteran trees. Calibration of the distribution models against the field data suggests that there are around eight to 10 times as many ancient and veteran trees present in England than the records currently suggest, with estimates ranging from 1.7 to 2.1 million trees compared to the 200,000 currently recorded in the ATI. The most successful bias correction method was systematic sampling of occurrence records, although the ZI models also performed well, significantly predicting field observations and highlighting both likely causes of undersampling and areas of the country in which many unrecorded trees are likely to be found. Our findings provide the first robust nationwide estimate of ancient and veteran tree abundance and demonstrate the enormous potential for distribution modeling based on citizen-science data combined with independent field validation to inform conservation planning., (© 2022 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.)

Feed-associated Salmonella serovars continue to be reported in poultry flocks. A study was conducted to investigate Salmonella contamination in major commercial feed mills that produce rations for broiler chickens within Great Britain. Dust and large moist gauze swab samples (12,791) were collected from 22 feed mills on 31 visits. Salmonella was isolated from 20 mills, with 15 mills (75%) having fewer than 5% Salmonella -positive samples. Fifty-one Salmonella serovars were isolated, with a large proportion of isolates being Salmonella ( S .) Kedougou (29.4%) or S. 13,23:i:- (21.4%). European Union-regulated Salmonella serovars (Enteritidis, Infantis, Typhimurium and its monophasic variants) were isolated from 12 mills, mostly from non-processing areas, accounting for 40 isolates (4.4% of all Salmonella -positive samples). Fifteen Salmonella serovars were only isolated once. In terms of individual sampling locations within the mill, the waste handling locations were significantly more likely to be Salmonella -positive than some other mill locations. When sampling locations were grouped, samples collected from finished product areas were significantly less likely to be Salmonella -positive for Salmonella than some other mill areas. In conclusion, this study found that most mills producing broiler rations showed low-level Salmonella contamination.

Hollows of veteran trees (i.e., rot holes) provide habitat for many rare and threatened saproxylic invertebrates. Rot holes are highly heterogeneous, particularly in terms of substrate and microclimate conditions. There is, however, a dearth of information regarding the differences in biological communities inhabiting rot holes with different environmental conditions. Invertebrates were sampled from European beech (Fagus sylvatica) rot holes in Windsor, Savernake, and Epping Forests (United Kingdom). For each rot hole, physical and environmental conditions were measured, including tree diameter, rot hole dimensions, rot hole height, substrate density, water content, and water potential. These parameters were used to assess the influence of environmental conditions and habitat characteristics on invertebrate communities. Rot hole invertebrate communities were extremely diverse, containing both woodland generalist and saproxylic specialist taxa. Large variation in community structure was observed between rot holes and across woodlands; all sites supported threatened and endangered taxa. Environmental conditions in rot holes were highly variable within and between woodland sites, and communities were predominantly structured by these environmental conditions. In particular, turnover between invertebrate communities was linked to high β-diversity. The linked heterogeneity of environmental conditions and invertebrate communities in rot holes suggests that management of deadwood habitats in woodlands should strive to generate environmental heterogeneity to promote invertebrate diversity. Additional research is required to define how management and conservation activities can further promote enhanced biodiversity across rot holes., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America.)

Establishing the cues or constraints that influence avian timing of breeding is the key to accurate prediction of future phenology. This study aims to identify the aspects of the environment that predict the timing of two measures of breeding phenology (nest initiation and egg laying date) in an insectivorous woodland passerine, the blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus). We analyse data collected from a 220 km, 40-site transect over 3 years and consider spring temperatures, tree leafing phenology, invertebrate availability and photoperiod as predictors of breeding phenology. We find that mean night-time temperature in early spring is the strongest predictor of both nest initiation and lay date and suggest this finding is most consistent with temperature acting as a constraint on breeding activity. Birch budburst phenology significantly predicts lay date additionally to temperature, either as a direct cue or indirectly via a correlated variable. We use cross-validation to show that our model accurately predicts lay date in two further years and find that similar variables predict lay date well across the UK national nest record scheme. This work refines our understanding of the principal factors influencing the timing of tit reproductive phenology and suggests that temperature may have both a direct and indirect effect.

Forests and woodlands worldwide are being severely impacted by invasive Phytophthora species, with initial outbreaks in some cases occurring on host trees located in public parks and gardens. These highly disturbed sites with diverse planting practices may indeed act as harbours for invasive Phytophthora pathogens which are particularly well adapted to surviving in soil. High throughput Illumina sequencing was used to analyse Phytophthora species diversity in soil samples collected from 14 public garden/amenity woodland sites in northern Britain. Bioinformatic analyses revealed some limitations to using internal transcribed spacer as the barcode region; namely reporting of false positives and ambiguous species matches. Taking this into account, 35 distinct sequences were amplified across the sites, corresponding to 23 known Phytophthora species as well as twelve oomycete sequences with no match to any known Phytophthora species. Phytophthora pseudosyringae and P. austrocedri , both of which cause serious damage to trees and are regarded as fairly recent introductions to Britain, were the two most abundant Phytophthora species detected. There was no evidence that any of the detected Phytophthora species were more associated with any one type of host, healthy or otherwise. This study has demonstrated the ubiquity and diversity of Phytophthora species endemic in highly managed, extensively planted soil environments in Britain. Suggested improvements to the methodology and the practical implications of the findings in terms of mitigating Phytophthora spread and impact are discussed., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Grass pollen is the world's most harmful outdoor aeroallergen. However, it is unknown how airborne pollen assemblages change across time and space. Human sensitivity varies between different species of grass that flower at different times, but it is not known whether temporal turnover in species composition match terrestrial flowering or whether species richness steadily accumulates over the grass pollen season. Here, using targeted, high-throughput sequencing, we demonstrate that all grass genera displayed discrete, temporally restricted peaks of incidence, which varied with latitude and longitude throughout Great Britain, revealing that the taxonomic composition of grass pollen exposure changes substantially across the grass pollen season.

Increasing temperatures associated with climate change may generate phenological mismatches that disrupt previously synchronous trophic interactions. Most work on mismatch has focused on temporal trends, whereas spatial variation in the degree of trophic synchrony has largely been neglected, even though the degree to which mismatch varies in space has implications for meso-scale population dynamics and evolution. Here we quantify latitudinal trends in phenological mismatch, using phenological data on an oak-caterpillar-bird system from across the UK. Increasing latitude delays phenology of all species, but more so for oak, resulting in a shorter interval between leaf emergence and peak caterpillar biomass at northern locations. Asynchrony found between peak caterpillar biomass and peak nestling demand of blue tits, great tits and pied flycatchers increases in earlier (warm) springs. There is no evidence of spatial variation in the timing of peak nestling demand relative to peak caterpillar biomass for any species. Phenological mismatch alone is thus unlikely to explain spatial variation in population trends. Given projections of continued spring warming, we predict that temperate forest birds will become increasingly mismatched with peak caterpillar timing. Latitudinal invariance in the direction of mismatch may act as a double-edged sword that presents no opportunities for spatial buffering from the effects of mismatch on population size, but generates spatially consistent directional selection on timing, which could facilitate rapid evolutionary change.

A consequence of climate change has been an advance in the timing of seasonal events. Differences in the rate of advance between trophic levels may result in predators becoming mismatched with prey availability, reducing fitness and potentially driving population declines. Such "trophic asynchrony" is hypothesized to have contributed to recent population declines of long-distance migratory birds in particular. Using spatially extensive survey data from 1983 to 2010 to estimate variation in spring phenology from 280 plant and insect species and the egg-laying phenology of 21 British songbird species, we explored the effects of trophic asynchrony on avian population trends and potential underlying demographic mechanisms. Species which advanced their laying dates least over the last three decades, and were therefore at greatest risk of asynchrony, exhibited the most negative population trends. We expressed asynchrony as the annual variation in bird phenology relative to spring phenology, and related asynchrony to annual avian productivity. In warmer springs, birds were more asynchronous, but productivity was only marginally reduced; long-distance migrants, short-distance migrants and resident bird species all exhibited effects of similar magnitude. Long-term population, but not productivity, declines were greatest among those species whose annual productivity was most greatly reduced by asynchrony. This suggests that population change is not mechanistically driven by the negative effects of asynchrony on productivity. The apparent effects of asynchrony on population trends are therefore either more likely to be strongly expressed via other demographic pathways, or alternatively, are a surrogate for species' sensitivity to other environmental pressures which are the ultimate cause of decline., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

One consequence of rising spring temperatures is that the optimum timing of key life-history events may advance. Where this is the case, a population's fate may depend on the degree to which it is able to track a change in the optimum timing either via plasticity or via adaptation. Estimating the effect that temperature change will have on optimum timing using standard approaches is logistically challenging, with the result that very few estimates of this important parameter exist. Here we adopt an alternative statistical method that substitutes space for time to estimate the temperature sensitivity of the optimum timing of 22 plant species based on >200 000 spatiotemporal phenological observations from across the United Kingdom. We find that first leafing and flowering dates are sensitive to forcing (spring) temperatures, with optimum timing advancing by an average of 3 days °C -1 and plastic responses to forcing between -3 and -8 days °C -1 . Chilling (autumn/winter) temperatures and photoperiod tend to be important cues for species with early and late phenology, respectively. For most species, we find that plasticity is adaptive, and for seven species, plasticity is sufficient to track geographic variation in the optimum phenology. For four species, we find that plasticity is significantly steeper than the optimum slope that we estimate between forcing temperature and phenology, and we examine possible explanations for this countergradient pattern, including local adaptation., (© 2017 The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5-2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1-14.8 days earlier on average).

The rise in spring temperatures over the past half-century has led to advances in the phenology of many nontropical plants and animals. As species and populations differ in their phenological responses to temperature, an increase in temperatures has the potential to alter timing-dependent species interactions. One species-interaction that may be affected is the competition for light in deciduous forests, where early vernal species have a narrow window of opportunity for growth before late spring species cast shade. Here we consider the Marsham phenology time series of first leafing dates of thirteen tree species and flowering dates of one ground flora species, which spans two centuries. The exceptional length of this time series permits a rare comparison of the statistical support for parameter-rich regression and mechanistic thermal sensitivity phenology models. While mechanistic models perform best in the majority of cases, both they and the regression models provide remarkably consistent insights into the relative sensitivity of each species to forcing and chilling effects. All species are sensitive to spring forcing, but we also find that vernal and northern European species are responsive to cold temperatures in the previous autumn. Whether this sensitivity reflects a chilling requirement or a delaying of dormancy remains to be tested. We then apply the models to projected future temperature data under a fossil fuel intensive emissions scenario and predict that while some species will advance substantially others will advance by less and may even be delayed due to a rise in autumn and winter temperatures. Considering the projected responses of all fourteen species, we anticipate a change in the order of spring events, which may lead to changes in competitive advantage for light with potential implications for the composition of temperate forests., (© 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)