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The world energy sector is entering a period of transformation, defined by the emergence of a whole range of cost-effective technologies and the formation of new state priorities that can radically change the structure of energy use. The calculations of the development of world energy markets for the period up to 2040 were made using economic and mathematical optimization modeling based on the ERI RAS SCANER model complex, for two scenarios: Conservative (maintaining key benchmarks and regulatory measures within the framework of existing energy policies, as well as incremental development of technologies without major breakthroughs) and Energy Transition (assuming ambitious goals in the field of reducing emissions, as well as accelerated technology development). The results of calculations show that the growth rate of primary energy consumption will slow down significantly. Renewable energy sources (RES) will be able to provide up to 35–50% of electricity production and up to a quarter of the world’s energy consumption by 2040, while the share of fossil fuels will decline. Oil and coal will pass the peak of consumption before 2040. This will not only lead to a radical change in the price environment of energy markets, but also to a transformation of the way they are organized and regulated, as well as to a revision of business models of most energy companies.

В статье рассмотрены основные факторы развития атомной энергетики в рамках глобального энергетического баланса. В рамках современного экономического пространства атомная отрасль является одной из ключевых, стратегически важных отраслей отечественной экономики как страны в целом, так и отдельных ее регионов, развитию которой уделяют приоритетное государственное значение. И для этого есть свои основания: потребление энергоресурсов увеличивается как в России, так и в рамках глобального мирового сообщества стран и растет необходимость в надежном источнике энергии. К таким источникам как раз и относится атомная энергия. Развитие атомной отрасли зависит от ряда факторов внешней и внутренней среды, которые можно разделить на следующие блоки: правовые, экономические, технологические, экологические. Конечной же, задачей правового регулирования в области использования атомной энергии является обеспечение безопасности для человека и окружающей среды. В настоящее время сформирована совокупность правовых норм и институтов, которые регулируют отрасль российского права, — атомное право, которое и сочетает в себе комплекс норм гражданского, конституционного, административного, экологического, земельного и других отраслей права. К экономическим факторам, помимо тех, которые определяют развитие любой стратегической отрасли, такие как себестоимость продукции, относятся вопросы макроконъюнктуры рынка, целесообразности импортозамещения, соответствие спроса и предложения, географии поставок, наличия логистических цепочек, физического размещение атомных объектов. Помимо развития фундаментальных наук (физики, химии, других отраслей естествознания), к технологическим факторам относятся особенности развития технологий получения атомной энергии, строительство референтных АЭС нового поколения, совершенствование комплекса материально-технической базы и сервиса. Одним из основных аспектов, который выступает преградой в развитии мировой атомной энергетики, является экологический. Именно экологическому фактору уделяется особое внимание во всем мире в первую очередь., The article considers the main factors of nuclear power development within the framework of the global energy balance. In the framework of modern economic space the nuclear industry is one of the key, strategically important branches of domestic economy both of the country as a whole, and of its individual regions, the development of which is given priority by the state. And there is a reason for this: energy consumption is increasing both in Russia and within the global world community of countries and the need for a reliable energy source is growing. Such sources include nuclear energy. The development of the nuclear industry depends on a number of external and internal environmental factors, which can be divided into the following blocks: legal, economic, technological, and environmental. The ultimate task of legal regulation in the field of atomic energy use is to provide safety for people and the environment. At present there is a set of legal norms and institutes that regulate a branch of the Russian law — nuclear law, which combines a complex of norms of civil, constitutional, administrative, environmental, land and other branches of law. Economic factors, in addition to those that determine the development of any strategic industry, such as production costs, include questions of market macroeconomics, feasibility of import substitution, matching supply and demand, supply geography, availability of supply chains, and physical location of nuclear facilities. In addition to the development of fundamental sciences (physics, chemistry, other branches of natural science), technological factors include peculiarities of development of nuclear energy production technologies, construction of new generation reference NPPs, improvement of the complex of material and technical base and service. One of the main aspects that act as an obstacle in the development of world nuclear power is the ecological one. It is the ecological factor that is given special attention all over the world in the first place., Бизнес. Образование. Право, Выпуск 3 (60) 2022

В работе анализируются последствия сдвигов в мировой экономике на мировую энергетику и российский экспорт энергоносителей. Показано, что изменение структуры мировой экономики, снижение ее энергоемкости, повышение эффективности использования энергоресурсов, принятие большинством стран мира программ перехода к низкоуглеродной экономике приводят к падению темпов роста мирового потребления энергии. Отмечено, что смещение центра роста мировой экономики из развитых стран в развивающуюся Азию превращает этот регион в лидера мирового потребления энергоносителей и их импорта. Обращается внимание на то, что нынешняя структура и географическая направленность российского экспорта энергоносителей не соответствует новым тенденциям развития мировой энергетики. Предлагаются меры для изменения ситуации., The paper analyzes the consequences of shifts in the world economy on world energy and Russian energy exports. It is shown that changing the structure of the world economy, reducing its energy intensity, increasing the efficiency of energy use, the adoption by most countries of the world of programs for the transition to a low-carbon economy lead to a drop in the growth rate of their world consumption. It is noted that the shift of the center of growth of the world economy from developed countries to developing Asia turns this region into a leader in world energy consumption and imports. Attention is drawn to the fact that the current structure and geographical orientation of Russian energy exports does not correspond to the new trends in the development of world energy, measures are proposed to change the situation.

Рассмотрены состояние и перспективы развития новых технологий мировой и отечественной возобновляемой энергетики с использованием материалов российских и зарубежных форумов и секции Возобновляемой и нетрадиционной энергетики Научно-технической коллегии НП НТС ЕЭС . Показано, что за счёт широкого и эффективного использования возобновляемых и местных энергоресурсов может быть обеспечена потребность человечества в энергии и уже на данном этапе могут быть успешно решены проблемы децентрализованного энергоснабжения для отдалённых и труднодоступных регионов. В настоящее время надёжно обеспечиваются решение научно-технических и организационных вопросов использования высокотехнологичного оборудования, достоверная оценка и прогноз изменяющихся природных ресурсов (интенсивность солнечного излучения, ветропотенциала, гидроэнергоресурсов малых водных потоков, приливов, волн и т.д.). Также за счёт использования нетрадиционных возобновляемых источников энергии (НВИЭ) в России могут быть достигнуты существенное улучшение топливно-энергетического баланса, практическое энергосбережение, создание новых высокотехнологичных производств, новых рабочих мест, импортозамещение и увеличение экспорта. Для существенного продвижения НВИЭ, важного компонента энергетики будущего, необходимы: совершенствование законодательства, разработка современной нормативно-технологической документации, поддержка отечественных НИОКР и импортозамещения производства высокотехнологичного оборудования. Отмечено возрастание роли распределённых энергосистем при разработке глобальных энергообъединений будущего. Приведены достижения и даны предложения по организации научных исследований в области оптимизации структуры региональных, континентальных и межконтинентальных энергосистем необходимость эффективного взаимодействия международных научных коллективов стран-участников по проекту создания глобальной энергетической системы., The article discusses the state and prospects of development of new technologies of world and domestic renewable energy (NRE) using materials of Russian and foreign Forums and the section Renewable and unconventional energy of the Scientific and technical Board of NP NTS UES on this topic. It is shown that due to the wide and effective use of renewable and local energy resources, the need of mankind for energy can be provided and at this stage the problems of decentralized energy supply for remote and hard-to-reach regions can be successfully solved. Solving scientific, technical and organizational issues of using high-tech equipment, reliable assessment and forecast of changing natural resources (solar radiation intensity, wind potential, hydropower resources (water flows, tides, waves, etc.) are now reliably provided. In Russia, significant improvements in the fuel and energy balance, practical energy saving, the creation of new high-tech industries, new jobs, import substitution and increased exports can also be achieved through the use of NRE. For significant promotion of NRE, an important component of the energy of the future, it is necessary to: improve legislation, develop modern regulatory and technological documentation, support domestic R D and import substitution of high-tech equipment production. The increasing role of distributed energy systems in the development of global energy connections of the future is noted. The achievements and proposals for the organization of scientific research in the field of optimization of the structure of regional, continental and Intercontinental energy systems the need for effective interaction of international research teams of the participating countries on the project of creating a global energy system are shown., №1 (2020)

Актуальность исследования определяется необходимостью повышения энергоэффективности и выполнением требований устойчивого развития. Цель работы: анализ тенденций по основным характеристикам на рынке энергоносителей: цене и объему потребления. Потребление выбрано по основным видам первичных энергоносителей: нефть, природный газ, ядерное топливо, возобновляемые источники энергии, гидроэлектроэнергия, каменный уголь. Анализ и прогноз цен проводятся только для нефти марки "Брент". Также необходимо изучить влияние требований устойчивого развития на потребление энергоносителей по макрорегионам: Северная Америка, Южная Америка и Карибы, Азиатско-Тихоокеанский регион, страны СНГ, Средний Восток, Европейский регион, Африка. Методы: прогнозная экстраполяция, основанная на анализе трендов, определяющих на уровне макрорегионов готовность к отказу от устаревших и развитию современных видов первичных энергоносителей; метод аналогии при построении циклической модели цен на нефть. Результаты. Выделены и охарактеризованы четыре цикла динамики цен на нефть в первые два десятилетия XXI в. Спрогнозированы два варианта ценовых уровней на 2020−2021 гг. Дана характеристика основным тенденциям в потреблении первичных энергоносителей отдельно по каждому их виду и каждому региону мира. This article focuses on the analysis of trends to improve energy efficiency and meet the requirements of sustainable development. The aim of the research is to determine trends in the main characteristics of the energy market: price and quantity of demand. Consumption pattern of energy includes consumption of coal, crude oil and natural gas, petroleum products, electricity (such as renewable power generation, hydropower, nuclear power). Analysis and forecast of the prices were carried out only for oil of mark "Brent". Progress in access to energy and sustainable energy is analyzed by macroregions: North America, South America and the Caribbean, Asia-Pacific, CIS countries, the Middle East, the European region, and Africa. Method: forecast extrapolation based on the analysis of trends that determine the readiness of macroregions to abandon outdated and develop modern types of primary energy carriers; an analogy method for constructing a cyclical model of oil prices. Results. Four cycles of oil price dynamics in the first two decades of the XXI century are identified and characterized. Two variants of price levels for 2020-2021 are predicted. The main trends in primary energy consumption are described separately for each type and for each region of the world.

The aim of this paper is to analyze the current state of the oil and gas industry of Russia in the conditions of falling oil prices and sanctions policy as well as the forecast of the further development of the industry and search for the ways out. The research methodology is based on a systematic approach to assessing the state of the oil and gas industry of Russia. It uses a set of scientific and special methods of investigation including the abstract-logical method, balancing method, economics and statistics and comparative analysis, synthesis method and others. The article demonstrates that the sanctions imposed on Russian companies as well as unprecedentedly low oil prices in the short term did not have a major impact on the production stability of the Russian oil and gas sector. The reason is that Russia has a huge resource potential and Russian oil projects are profitable even at low oil prices. However, in the long term, these factors can have a negative impact on the industry, which is due primarily to the shortage of modern equipment and technologies for the implementation of promising projects in the Arctic shelf, as well as on deposits with difficult development conditions. The sanctions policy is not favourable for foreign companies because the long-term interests of our companies coincide with the interests of foreign business partners. The international coordination of efforts for solving many problems is needed, because of decreasing resources and infavourable oil production settings. The article shows that a major investment in the development of modern domestic equipment and technologies are required in the current situation; it is advisable to develop the residual reserves and reserves difficult to recover in the aged areas along with the implementation of large-scale projects for the production of hydrocarbons in new areas

Предметом настоящей работы является разработка рекомендаций для развития воз-обновляемых источников энергии в России. С этой целью в статье анализируются происходящие в мировой энергетике тенденции, связанные с международной эколо-гической повесткой, изучен конкретный опыт реализации экологически ориентиро-ванных мер, рассматривается связь международной экологической повестки и миро-вой экономики, отмечается, что озабоченность состоянием окружающей среды оказы-вает влияние на трансформационные процессы в энергетике. Практика европейских стран-лидеров в области возобновляемых источников энергии показана посредством сравнения двух основных механизмов поддержки данной отрасли. Проанализиро-ваны особенности внедрения мер стимулирования чистой энергии в России, даны рекомендации по их совершенствованию, The subject of this work is the development of recommendations for the development of renewable sources energy in Russia. To this end, the article analyzes the trends in the world energy, related to the international environmental agenda, specific experience was studied in the implementation of environmentally-oriented measures, the relationship between the international environmental agenda and the world economy is considered, it is noted that concern over the state of the environment affects the transformation processes in the energy sector. The practice of European countries-leaders in the field of renewable energy sources is shown by comparing the two main mechanisms of supporting this industry. The specif-ics of the introduction of measures to stimulate clean energy in Russia were analyzed, and recommendations for their improvement were given

This study proposes a use of data envelopment analysis (DEA) to assess the performance of energy industries. The DEA is a nonparametric approach that does not assume any functional form for performance assessment. The purpose of this study is to discuss how DEA can examine the current energy industries and their trends in the world. The energy is separated into primary and secondary categories. The primary energy is classified into fossil and non-fossil fuels. The fossil fuels include oil, natural gas and coal, while the non-fossil ones include nuclear and renewable energies (e.g., solar, wind, biomass, water and others). Energy consumption is essential for developing economic prosperity in all nations. However, a use of various energy resources usually produces many different types of pollutions (e.g., air, soil and water pollutions), leading to a huge damage on our society and human health. Thus, it is important for us to understand a general trend of world energy when we consider various environmental issues. This study discusses electricity as a representative of secondary energy. It is not easy to maintain a high level of social balance, so-called sustainability between economic development and environmental protection. As the initial step for sustainability development, this study summarizes a general trend of energy whose consumption has been increasing along with an economic development and a population increase in the world. Along with discussing the trend of world energy, this study describes why DEA is useful as one of the methodologies to assess a social balance between economic success and environmental protection by identifying a level of efficiency, later referred to as “unified (operational and environmental) efficiency.” Thus, this study conveys the research necessity of DEA environmental assessment on energy and sustainability from a perspective of supply and demand on energy resources in the world.

Congo Basin countries rely more on wood-based biomass to meet their energy needs than most other countries in the world. Wood fuel production is increasing in Congo Basin countries. Urbanization often produces a shift from fuel wood to charcoal consumption, because charcoal is cheaper and easier to transport and store. Charcoal is produced mostly using traditional techniques, with low transformation efficiencies. Under a business as usual scenario, charcoal supply can represent the single biggest threat to Congo Basin forests in the coming decades. This report aims at providing some thinking on how Congo Basin could meet their energy needs in a forest-friendly manner. It is one of a series of outputs prepared during a two-year exercise to analyze and better understand the deforestation dynamics in the Basin. It presents the main findings related to the wood fuel sector in the Congo Basin and its potential impact on forest cover. It is based on an in-depth analysis of the sector (past trends and future prospects). It also builds on results derived from a modeling exercise conducted by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) that examined the national and regional trends in in wood-based biomass energy use and the impacts on Congo Basin forests. The report is structured as follows: chapter one gives an overview of the wood fuel sector in the six Congo Basin countries, including an analysis of its impact so far on forest cover; chapter two presents the prospects of energy needs and production in the near future, and the potential impacts on forest under a business as usual scenario; and chapter three identifies potential key levers in the wood fuel sector that could limit adverse impacts on forest cover.

The primary completion rate for 7 countries-Benin, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Ethiopia, Madagascar, Mozambique, and Niger-more than doubled between 1991 and 2009. Still large differences persist between rich and poor within countries. In some low-income countries, such as Benin, the completion rates for the richest quintile are 95 percent or higher, but completion rates for the poorest quintile are 35 percent or less. And there is a 9 percentage point gap in the completion rates for boys and girls. Many poor people depend on biomass energy from plant materials or animal wastes for cooking and heating. Millions of deaths are caused by air pollution. Many are children in developing countries, who die of acute respiratory infections due to indoor air pollution resulting from burning fuel wood, crop residues, or animal dung. The economies of Sub-Saharan Africa are gradually shifting towards industry and services. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Sub-Saharan Africa expanded by 4.7 percent in 2010, up from 1.7 percent in 2009. In the last five years Rwanda, Burkina Faso, Ghana, and Mali, ranked in the top ten of 174 of the world s countries in making their regulatory environment more favorable to business. Middle East and North Africa has made impressive gains in women s health and education outcomes. In 2008 the low-and middle income economies of Middle East and North Africa produced 53 percent more energy compared to their 1990 level, but they consumed 133 percent more energy and energy use per capita increased by 63 percent. Economic growth and rising labor productivity has reduced poverty in South Asia, home to half the world s poor people living below $1.25 a day. Information and communications technology services dominate the service exports of South Asia like no other region. Latin American and the Caribbean is the most efficient energy user in the world, measured by the ratio of GDP to energy use. The rapid emergence of East Asia as the world s export powerhouse was complemented by surging final demand within the region, notably in China. Taxes fund a broad range of social and economic programs, national defense, and other purposes such as redistributing income to the aged and unemployed.

Energy has been one of the most important issues and challenge humans face in the 21st century which has a bearing on international economic and social development, global climate changes and environment protection. With a focus on development trends of world energy, this paper analyses the current world energy status and from the perspectives of energy sources, regions, end-use sectors, the balance of energy production and consumption, and in the context of its implications on the global environmental and economic and social development by using a series of indicators such as total primary energy, total final energy, energy consumption and CO2 emission intensity per capita and per GDP to compare and study. The main development trends contains depletion of fossil fuels, rapid development of renewable energy, aggravated environmental problems by energy-related GHG emissions, more unbalanced and interdependent regional energy production and consumption, more efficient energy industry; globalization and so on. This article expounds humans’ efforts to make progress in developing renewable energy and reducing energy-related environmental impacts. In the end of the paper, world energy structure development and middle-term energy consumption are projected, and the general orientations of world energy development trends in future are presented.

Neste artigo, discuto, principalmente, a inserção dos gastos públicos em modelos de mudança climática. Considero a análise de Kemfert, Lise e Tol (2004) como exemplo de modelo formal que agrega as questões econômicas e climáticas, e amplio a discussão com o estudo da inserção dos gastos públicos com gestão ambiental e da matriz energética. Mostro que as estruturas econômicas e físicas dos países estabelecem diferentes gastos públicos, com diferentes impactos ambientais e conseqüências para outras nações e isto afeta sobremaneira os resultados de qualquer modelo econômico. Em termos dos gastos públicos com meio ambiente, observo especificamente o caso brasileiro, verificando os gastos públicos federais com Gestão Ambiental no Brasil de 2000 a 2006. Defendo a importância de se considerar as diversas possibilidades de despesas públicas com gestão ambiental, para o tratamento das questões relativas à mudança climática. In this paper, I, mainly, analyzed the inclusion of environmental budget in climate change models. Considering Kemfert, Lise and Tol (2004)'s approach to show a formal model that puts together economic and climate issues, I analyzed the inclusion of environmental public spending and energy. I tried to show that countries' economic and physical structures establish different public spending, with different environmental impacts and consequences to another nations and that has strong influence on economic models. In relation to public spending, I considered, specifically, the Brazilian federal budget to Environmental Management from 2000 to 2006. In this article, I argue in defense of considering budget for environmental management in the discussion on climate change.